The domestic stock markets opened lower and saw sustained selling pressure in the morning, but recovered slightly in the afternoon on short covering and selective buying. The markets ended the day with modest losses, struggling to break above the 5945 resistance level. Technically, most indicators are pointing to further downside, with the markets remaining cautious as key resistance levels have not been breached. Support levels are at 5816, 5747 and 5665, while resistance is at 5885, 5945, 6135 and 6313.

1. Daily Technical Outlook
21st December 2012
Indices * Close % Chg. Pull back rally ends
BSE SENSEX 19453.92 -0.11
S&P CNX NIFTY 5916.40 -0.22
Mirroring the weak global market cues the domestic markets
witnessed a negative opening. Sustained selling pressure
NIFTY DEC. FUT. 5931.15 -0.26
was witnessed in the morning trade as markets drifted lower
India VIX 14.32 -1.03
but managed to respect the 5885 support level. Short
S&P CNX NIFTY Technical Levels covering and selective buying support in the afternoon
Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 session helped the markets come off the lows for the day.
Support 5885 5816 5747
Intermediate bouts of volatility were seen as markets once
again struggled to test the 5945 resistance level. The
Resistance 5945 6135 6313
markets ended the day with modest losses to close near the
Simple Moving Averages S&P CNX NIFTY highs for the day. The top gainers for the day were Ambuja
50 Day SMA 5738.39 ◄Positive Cement, Sun Pharma, BPCL, JP Associates, M&M, Bajaj
100 Day SMA 5577.81
Auto, Cairn India, Axis Bank, ITC and IDFC.
200 Day SMA 5367.56 Technically, the market breadth remained negative
Market Breadth * BSE NSE
amidst lower volumes. After two days pull back rally the
markets have again started to move lower. The prevailing
Advances 1310 415
technical negatives continue to hold good and would
Declines 1583 689
weigh on the market sentiment. The negative divergence
Same 134 60 pattern formed on the Nifty still holds good. The RSI has
Total 3027 1164 again slipped below its average. Moreover, the MACD is
A/D Ratio 0.83 : 1 0.60 : 1 already below its average. The Stochastic has moved in
the over bought zone. These negative technical
Volume (Lacs Shares) * conditions would lead to further selling pressure.
20/12/12 19/12/12 % Chg. However, the prevailing technical positive conditions still
BSE 2998 2901 3.34 hold good. The Stochastic and KST are already placed
NSE 8164 8444 -3.31 above their respective averages. Moreover, the MACD
Total 11162 11345 -1.61 and KST are also placed in the positive territory. The
Nifty remains placed above its 50-day SMA, 100-day SMA
Turnover ( ` Crores) * and 200-day SMA. The Nifty’s 50-day SMA remains
20/12/12 19/12/12 % Chg. placed above Nifty’s 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA, the
BSE 2437.32 2518.75 -3.23 later being called the ‘Golden Cross breakout’. These
NSE 11924.38 14122.78 -15.57 positive conditions would lead to short covering and
NSE F&O 169685.14 122207.74 38.85 selective buying support. However, the market sentiment
Total 184046.84 138849.27 32.55
remains cautious as the Nifty index continues to struggle
around the 5945 resistance level. Now, it is important
F&O Contracts Traded (NSE) * that the Nifty witnesses buying support for the Nifty to
20/12/12 19/12/12 % Chg. test the 5945 level and move above it. It Nifty fails then it
Index Fut. 355440 209703 69.50
could test the 5800-5750 level in the near future. Pull
back rallies should be used as an opportunity to create
Stock Fut. 813261 686957 18.39
short positions until the Nifty spot index closes above
Index Opt. 4148979 2835374 46.33
the 5950 level. In the meanwhile the markets would take
Stock Opt. 360853 339752 6.21 cues from the global markets, Rupee and the crude
Total 5678533 4071786 32.78 prices. The support levels for Nifty are placed at 5816, 5747
NOTE - * - Source – BSE & NSE and 5665. The Nifty faces resistance at 5885, 5945, 6135
and 6313 levels.
Sanjay Bhatia (AVP – Technical Research), Email sanjay@keynotecapitals.net Yahoo Id: keytechnicals@yahoo.in
Keynote Capitals Ltd.
The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
www.keynotecapitals.com

2. Jaldi 5 (Short Term Technical Ideas for 5 Trading Days)
Stop
Initiation Stop Loss
Stock Close Action Price Loss * (%) Target Target (%) Remarks
Aurobindo Pharma 195.40 Buy Above 197.00 191.50 2.79 209.00 6.09
Bombay Dying 134.95 Buy Above 136.00 129.25 4.96 151.00 11.03
JSW Steel 824.05 Buy Above 826.00 806.50 2.36 869.00 5.21
* Stop Losses are to be considered strictly on closing basis.
Intra-day Resistance Intra-day Support
Indices Close Pivot Point R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
BSE SENSEX 19454 19437 19538 19622 19806 19353 19252 19067
S&P CNX NIFTY 5916 5912 5942 5968 6024 5886 5856 5800
NIFTY DEC. FUT. 5931 5925 5956 5980 6035 5901 5871 5816
Stocks To Watch Out Today
Asian Paints, Aurobindo Pharma, Bank of India, Bombay Dying, Canara Bank, Cipla, Colgate, Divis Labs, Escorts, FT, Guj.
Flourochemicals, Hindalco, HUL, IDBI, IDEA, Indian Hotels, IVRCL, JSW Steel, Jindal Steel, Maruti, Punj Lloyd, Rolta, SAIL,
Sesa Goa, Sobha, Sterlite, Sun TV, Tata Power, Tata Steel, TCS, TVS Motors, United Spirits, Welcorp, Yes Bank,
ABB, AB Nuvo, Axis Bank, Balrampur Chini, Bata, BEML, Bharat Forge, Cairn, DCB, Dena Bank, Dish TV, Fortis, Grasim,
Godrej Inds; HDFC, HDIL, Hexaware, IGL, India Cement, IRB, ITC, Jet Airways, Jindal Saw, JP Power, L&T, M&M, NHPC,
Patel Engg; Polaris, Powergrid, Raymond, RCOM; Rel. Capital, Rel. Infra, SIB, Syndicate Bank, Tata Comm; Tata Global, TTK
Prestige, UCO Bank, Unitech, Vuideocon, VIP, Voltas
Keynote Capitals Ltd.
The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
www.keynotecapitals.com

3. NOTE:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ABBREVATIONS
SMA – Simple Moving Average
EMA – Exponential Moving Average
WMA – Weighted Moving Average
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