Spectrum limitations migration to NGMN: A growth market dilemma?
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Presented at the 5th Annual Mobile Network Evolution Conference, Singapore 24 March 2010.
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Spectrum limitations migration to NGMN: A growth market dilemma?
- 1. Spectrum limitations migrating to NGMN: a growth market dilemma? 5th Annual Mobile Network Evolution Conference, Singapore 24 March 2010. Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen International Network Economics, Technology, T-Mobile
- 3. Changing Market - Tomorrow’s World Society Trends and Technological Indicators 1.60+ bn. internet users 50+ Tb user generated content per day. 4.1+ bn. mobile phone users 250 bn. Emails per day, more than 40% with 5MB 350+ m. active users with 65+ m mobile, 2.5+bn photos and 13+ m video uploads monthly. 20 hrs video uploaded every minute. 1bn. Downloads per day 400 m. registered users. Facebook has overtaken Skype in VoIP minutes. 25 m. mobile-tv users in Asia Pacific region 4.5 bn. $ worldwide mobile gaming revenue 86 m. active ebay users All IP/All Digital Networking and Sharing My-tech NOT Hi-tech Trend to Digitize Trend to Socialize Trend to Individualize Indicators : Digital Media; Cheap High Capacity data storage Indicators : Warcraft; MySpace; Flickr; Second Life etc Indicators : Web2.0; Personal & Social Networking; Facebook:
- 4. Trends for 2010 and beyond. Higher efficiency. Better connected. New business. Mobile broadband traffic. Growth markets in Asia. HH 1 2008: 30+%, 200+ mn and 2014: 50+% and 500+ mn. PC penetration Broadband access today 1 Dongles (5%) iPhone-like. “ Normal” devices. Traffic volume: <65% >30% <5% >50% <50% GPRS EDGE UMTS HSPA LTE 1 1:3 1:5 <1:300 <1:3000 Cost per Mega Byte.
- 5. Mobile broadband usage trends. URL distribution Corresponding volume per URL
- 6. Mobile broadband traffic is expected to grow geometrically over the next 10 years. Throughput 1 100+ (CAGR 50% pa) Volume 1 300+ (CAGR 70% pa) > > Today’s volume distribution Volume distribution 2020+
- 7. The mobile broadband traffic jam … … customer dissatisfaction …
- 9. Example 1 … speeding towards a 3G traffic jam? Timing issue with mitigating the 3G traffic jam with legacy 2G spectrum. Customer adaptation. 2 15 MHz @ 1800 MHz 2G/NGMN. 2 10 MHz @ 2.1 GHz - 3G/HSPA. 2G 3G NGMN 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2008A 2010F 2012F 2014F 2016F 2018F 2020F 2022F 2024F 0 10 20 30 0 5 10 15 -40 -20 0 20 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 -20 -10 0 10 DL+UL DL / UL DL+UL DL / UL 3G capacity crunch NGMN capacity available 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 Asian market mobile operator with 13 million customers and ca. 15% market share. 2012ish crunch likely 2014+ is capacity available!!!
- 10. Example 2 … speeding towards a 3G traffic jam? “Spare” 2G spectral capacity that mitigates the 3G traffic jam 1 . Customer adaptation. 2 30 MHz @ 1800 MHz 2G/NGMN. 2 10 MHz @ 2.1 GHz – 3G/HSPA. DL+UL DL+UL 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 NGMN HSPA UMTS GPRS GSM DL / UL DL / UL European market mobile operator with 18 million customers and ca. 20% market share. 3G capacity crunch 2013ish crunch likely 3G mitigation “ spare” NGMN Capacity Good timing!! 1 Provided regulatory approval.
- 12. How to perfect existing legacy spectrum 1 . Re-farm own spectrum and/or acquire new spectrum for NGMN. Migration & re-farming to NGMN. Illustration 3G (2 10 @ 2100) 2G (2 15 @ 1800) 3G 2G Customer migration from 3G NGMN Free 2G NGMN (2 15 @ 1800) NGMN New Customers After some time 2G to 4G migration. 1 Provided Regulatory approval for spectral refarming, Note this is far from given in most countries.
- 14. FDD & TDD landscape. It will be a challenge to find new and suitable FDD-based spectrum for NGMN migration (and 3G off-loading) in growth markets. T-Mobile UK & Orange TD-TV UL (75 MHz) DL UL (35MHz) DL 900 MHz 1,800 MHz 2,500 MHz UL (60 MHz) DL 2,100 MHz TDD part TDD 2,300 – 2,400+ MHz part TDD This band provides interesting backhaul P2P options in some Greenfield scenarios. 3,400 – 3,500+ MHz Malaysia: WiMax China: TDD-LTE UL DL 400 MHz UL DL 700 / 800 MHz TDD T D D (20 MHz) (15 MHz) (20 MHz) In use in China TDD BSNL in India The 2.5 GHz is reserved for satellite applications in many parts of Asia. Below 900 MHz relies on digital dividend availability. Note: the above view is more in line with European and Asian spectrum landscape than US, e.g., 1700 MHz (AWS) used for 3G services and 1900 MHz for PCS/GSM services. Low availability in Europe. UL (70 MHz) TDD (50 MHz) DL
- 15. G r ee n f i e l d a t t ac k e r s p e ct r u m Is s u e
- 19. How to perfect limited BWA spectrum 1 . Re-farm own spectrum and/or acquire new spectrum for NGMN. Migration & re-farming to NGMN. 1 Provided Regulatory approval for spectral refarming, Note this is far from given in most countries. 1 20 MHz NGMN 1 10 MHz Illustration WiMax 802.16e (1 30 MHz @ 2.3 GHz) New subscriptions ? NGMN WiMax WiMax NGMN
- 20. Summary. Broadband traffic jam will be experienced by Legacy & Greenfield. Existing spectral flexibility will depend on the rate of technology uptake & migration. The Greenfield spectrum position is growth limited impacting quality & business model.
- 21. Thank you very much! Acknowledgement: Michael Lai (P1 Malaysia), Dirk Sch ö neboom, Xi Bin, Richard Marijs, Stefan Wilhelm, Zhou Yi, Alan Yeo, Jordan Yeo, Denis Gautheret and many other talented colleagues in DTAG. Contact: [email_address] Tel: +31 6 2409 5202 http://nl.linkedin.com/in/kimklarsen
Notes de l'éditeur
- Very often, it is claimed – especially from Femtocell equipment vendors – that Femtos enable ‘huge savings” in the macro network and only by this make the business case! So, we decided to take a closer look! Please mind: The DFP data demand (Kim Larsen) has been used as input. Further we used the Network Economic RAN and Femto cost model for this calculation. Please also mind that this is a strategic analysis, i.e. that the modelled cost increase due to traffic demand is not aligned with local budgets (click)
- We assume that only those “heavy users” will get a Femto. (Please mind that this is an important assumption. As in reality not every heavy user is likely to accept a Femto – he may not like the concept or does not have the necessary broadband subscription– our cost saving calculations should be regarded as an upper limit ! Now we know the number of Femtos, which need to be deployed in each year. We look into the Femto cost model (click – Femto TCO curve is blinking) and get the cost of Femto deployment for each year. As even with a deployment of Femtocells, the traffic in the macro network will continue to grow, we again have to look in RAN model and calulate the increase in TCO of the Macro network compared to the base year, this time however including the offload effect of Femtos. (click – Macro TCO curve - incl. Femto – is blinking) The upgrade costs of the Macro network which occur despite Femto deployment have to be added on top of the costs of the femto deployment itself. These total costs incurred by Femtos can now be compared to the costs without Femtos (thus the Macro upgrade costs stand alone) So - (click: animation starts – bottom graph appears)
- New key messages: Face book increase of 150million users in the space of 9 months. 900 million photos uploaded on Facebook each month 07 October 09: ITU: Number of MBB users has now overtaken fixed broadband users (600million mobile broadband users worldwide – vs- 500million fixed 07 October 09: ITU: One Quarter of the world is now online 7/10 people now have mobile contracts;4.6bn contracts worldwide Blog search engine Technorati is currently tracking over 70 million blogs T-Mobile 75% of T-Mobile customers own a laptop 60% of T-Mobile customers use the internet every day 90% of T-Mobile customers use mobile internet exclusively W e see that there is the possibility to have content on many screens; NGMN will support and make CL&W a reality
- We assume that only those “heavy users” will get a Femto. (Please mind that this is an important assumption. As in reality not every heavy user is likely to accept a Femto – he may not like the concept or does not have the necessary broadband subscription– our cost saving calculations should be regarded as an upper limit ! Now we know the number of Femtos, which need to be deployed in each year. We look into the Femto cost model (click – Femto TCO curve is blinking) and get the cost of Femto deployment for each year. As even with a deployment of Femtocells, the traffic in the macro network will continue to grow, we again have to look in RAN model and calulate the increase in TCO of the Macro network compared to the base year, this time however including the offload effect of Femtos. (click – Macro TCO curve - incl. Femto – is blinking) The upgrade costs of the Macro network which occur despite Femto deployment have to be added on top of the costs of the femto deployment itself. These total costs incurred by Femtos can now be compared to the costs without Femtos (thus the Macro upgrade costs stand alone) So - (click: animation starts – bottom graph appears)
- We assume that only those “heavy users” will get a Femto. (Please mind that this is an important assumption. As in reality not every heavy user is likely to accept a Femto – he may not like the concept or does not have the necessary broadband subscription– our cost saving calculations should be regarded as an upper limit ! Now we know the number of Femtos, which need to be deployed in each year. We look into the Femto cost model (click – Femto TCO curve is blinking) and get the cost of Femto deployment for each year. As even with a deployment of Femtocells, the traffic in the macro network will continue to grow, we again have to look in RAN model and calulate the increase in TCO of the Macro network compared to the base year, this time however including the offload effect of Femtos. (click – Macro TCO curve - incl. Femto – is blinking) The upgrade costs of the Macro network which occur despite Femto deployment have to be added on top of the costs of the femto deployment itself. These total costs incurred by Femtos can now be compared to the costs without Femtos (thus the Macro upgrade costs stand alone) So - (click: animation starts – bottom graph appears)
- We assume that only those “heavy users” will get a Femto. (Please mind that this is an important assumption. As in reality not every heavy user is likely to accept a Femto – he may not like the concept or does not have the necessary broadband subscription– our cost saving calculations should be regarded as an upper limit ! Now we know the number of Femtos, which need to be deployed in each year. We look into the Femto cost model (click – Femto TCO curve is blinking) and get the cost of Femto deployment for each year. As even with a deployment of Femtocells, the traffic in the macro network will continue to grow, we again have to look in RAN model and calulate the increase in TCO of the Macro network compared to the base year, this time however including the offload effect of Femtos. (click – Macro TCO curve - incl. Femto – is blinking) The upgrade costs of the Macro network which occur despite Femto deployment have to be added on top of the costs of the femto deployment itself. These total costs incurred by Femtos can now be compared to the costs without Femtos (thus the Macro upgrade costs stand alone) So - (click: animation starts – bottom graph appears)
- We assume that only those “heavy users” will get a Femto. (Please mind that this is an important assumption. As in reality not every heavy user is likely to accept a Femto – he may not like the concept or does not have the necessary broadband subscription– our cost saving calculations should be regarded as an upper limit ! Now we know the number of Femtos, which need to be deployed in each year. We look into the Femto cost model (click – Femto TCO curve is blinking) and get the cost of Femto deployment for each year. As even with a deployment of Femtocells, the traffic in the macro network will continue to grow, we again have to look in RAN model and calulate the increase in TCO of the Macro network compared to the base year, this time however including the offload effect of Femtos. (click – Macro TCO curve - incl. Femto – is blinking) The upgrade costs of the Macro network which occur despite Femto deployment have to be added on top of the costs of the femto deployment itself. These total costs incurred by Femtos can now be compared to the costs without Femtos (thus the Macro upgrade costs stand alone) So - (click: animation starts – bottom graph appears)
- We assume that only those “heavy users” will get a Femto. (Please mind that this is an important assumption. As in reality not every heavy user is likely to accept a Femto – he may not like the concept or does not have the necessary broadband subscription– our cost saving calculations should be regarded as an upper limit ! Now we know the number of Femtos, which need to be deployed in each year. We look into the Femto cost model (click – Femto TCO curve is blinking) and get the cost of Femto deployment for each year. As even with a deployment of Femtocells, the traffic in the macro network will continue to grow, we again have to look in RAN model and calulate the increase in TCO of the Macro network compared to the base year, this time however including the offload effect of Femtos. (click – Macro TCO curve - incl. Femto – is blinking) The upgrade costs of the Macro network which occur despite Femto deployment have to be added on top of the costs of the femto deployment itself. These total costs incurred by Femtos can now be compared to the costs without Femtos (thus the Macro upgrade costs stand alone) So - (click: animation starts – bottom graph appears)
- We assume that only those “heavy users” will get a Femto. (Please mind that this is an important assumption. As in reality not every heavy user is likely to accept a Femto – he may not like the concept or does not have the necessary broadband subscription– our cost saving calculations should be regarded as an upper limit ! Now we know the number of Femtos, which need to be deployed in each year. We look into the Femto cost model (click – Femto TCO curve is blinking) and get the cost of Femto deployment for each year. As even with a deployment of Femtocells, the traffic in the macro network will continue to grow, we again have to look in RAN model and calulate the increase in TCO of the Macro network compared to the base year, this time however including the offload effect of Femtos. (click – Macro TCO curve - incl. Femto – is blinking) The upgrade costs of the Macro network which occur despite Femto deployment have to be added on top of the costs of the femto deployment itself. These total costs incurred by Femtos can now be compared to the costs without Femtos (thus the Macro upgrade costs stand alone) So - (click: animation starts – bottom graph appears)
- We assume that only those “heavy users” will get a Femto. (Please mind that this is an important assumption. As in reality not every heavy user is likely to accept a Femto – he may not like the concept or does not have the necessary broadband subscription– our cost saving calculations should be regarded as an upper limit ! Now we know the number of Femtos, which need to be deployed in each year. We look into the Femto cost model (click – Femto TCO curve is blinking) and get the cost of Femto deployment for each year. As even with a deployment of Femtocells, the traffic in the macro network will continue to grow, we again have to look in RAN model and calulate the increase in TCO of the Macro network compared to the base year, this time however including the offload effect of Femtos. (click – Macro TCO curve - incl. Femto – is blinking) The upgrade costs of the Macro network which occur despite Femto deployment have to be added on top of the costs of the femto deployment itself. These total costs incurred by Femtos can now be compared to the costs without Femtos (thus the Macro upgrade costs stand alone) So - (click: animation starts – bottom graph appears)
- We assume that only those “heavy users” will get a Femto. (Please mind that this is an important assumption. As in reality not every heavy user is likely to accept a Femto – he may not like the concept or does not have the necessary broadband subscription– our cost saving calculations should be regarded as an upper limit ! Now we know the number of Femtos, which need to be deployed in each year. We look into the Femto cost model (click – Femto TCO curve is blinking) and get the cost of Femto deployment for each year. As even with a deployment of Femtocells, the traffic in the macro network will continue to grow, we again have to look in RAN model and calulate the increase in TCO of the Macro network compared to the base year, this time however including the offload effect of Femtos. (click – Macro TCO curve - incl. Femto – is blinking) The upgrade costs of the Macro network which occur despite Femto deployment have to be added on top of the costs of the femto deployment itself. These total costs incurred by Femtos can now be compared to the costs without Femtos (thus the Macro upgrade costs stand alone) So - (click: animation starts – bottom graph appears)
- We assume that only those “heavy users” will get a Femto. (Please mind that this is an important assumption. As in reality not every heavy user is likely to accept a Femto – he may not like the concept or does not have the necessary broadband subscription– our cost saving calculations should be regarded as an upper limit ! Now we know the number of Femtos, which need to be deployed in each year. We look into the Femto cost model (click – Femto TCO curve is blinking) and get the cost of Femto deployment for each year. As even with a deployment of Femtocells, the traffic in the macro network will continue to grow, we again have to look in RAN model and calulate the increase in TCO of the Macro network compared to the base year, this time however including the offload effect of Femtos. (click – Macro TCO curve - incl. Femto – is blinking) The upgrade costs of the Macro network which occur despite Femto deployment have to be added on top of the costs of the femto deployment itself. These total costs incurred by Femtos can now be compared to the costs without Femtos (thus the Macro upgrade costs stand alone) So - (click: animation starts – bottom graph appears)
- We assume that only those “heavy users” will get a Femto. (Please mind that this is an important assumption. As in reality not every heavy user is likely to accept a Femto – he may not like the concept or does not have the necessary broadband subscription– our cost saving calculations should be regarded as an upper limit ! Now we know the number of Femtos, which need to be deployed in each year. We look into the Femto cost model (click – Femto TCO curve is blinking) and get the cost of Femto deployment for each year. As even with a deployment of Femtocells, the traffic in the macro network will continue to grow, we again have to look in RAN model and calulate the increase in TCO of the Macro network compared to the base year, this time however including the offload effect of Femtos. (click – Macro TCO curve - incl. Femto – is blinking) The upgrade costs of the Macro network which occur despite Femto deployment have to be added on top of the costs of the femto deployment itself. These total costs incurred by Femtos can now be compared to the costs without Femtos (thus the Macro upgrade costs stand alone) So - (click: animation starts – bottom graph appears)
- We assume that only those “heavy users” will get a Femto. (Please mind that this is an important assumption. As in reality not every heavy user is likely to accept a Femto – he may not like the concept or does not have the necessary broadband subscription– our cost saving calculations should be regarded as an upper limit ! Now we know the number of Femtos, which need to be deployed in each year. We look into the Femto cost model (click – Femto TCO curve is blinking) and get the cost of Femto deployment for each year. As even with a deployment of Femtocells, the traffic in the macro network will continue to grow, we again have to look in RAN model and calulate the increase in TCO of the Macro network compared to the base year, this time however including the offload effect of Femtos. (click – Macro TCO curve - incl. Femto – is blinking) The upgrade costs of the Macro network which occur despite Femto deployment have to be added on top of the costs of the femto deployment itself. These total costs incurred by Femtos can now be compared to the costs without Femtos (thus the Macro upgrade costs stand alone) So - (click: animation starts – bottom graph appears)
- We assume that only those “heavy users” will get a Femto. (Please mind that this is an important assumption. As in reality not every heavy user is likely to accept a Femto – he may not like the concept or does not have the necessary broadband subscription– our cost saving calculations should be regarded as an upper limit ! Now we know the number of Femtos, which need to be deployed in each year. We look into the Femto cost model (click – Femto TCO curve is blinking) and get the cost of Femto deployment for each year. As even with a deployment of Femtocells, the traffic in the macro network will continue to grow, we again have to look in RAN model and calulate the increase in TCO of the Macro network compared to the base year, this time however including the offload effect of Femtos. (click – Macro TCO curve - incl. Femto – is blinking) The upgrade costs of the Macro network which occur despite Femto deployment have to be added on top of the costs of the femto deployment itself. These total costs incurred by Femtos can now be compared to the costs without Femtos (thus the Macro upgrade costs stand alone) So - (click: animation starts – bottom graph appears)
- … to summarize….
- Thank you very much….