A look into the real estate figures of Kolkata from July-December 2016.

1. H1 2016, a recap
- A recovery predicted
INDIA
REAL ESTATE
JULY – DECEMBER 2016
KOLKATA

2. KOLKATA
REAL ESTATE

3. H1 residential market recap
HAD STEADY LAUNCHES IN
A RESTRAINED MARKET;
SALES HAD DECLINED BY 10%

4. We predicted a 4% de-growth YoY
in sales for H2 2016,
but Kolkata saw a
steeper decline in H2 2016

5. New launches decline by 15%;
Sales observe a fall of 20%
Half yearly trend in launches and sales
10,720
8,157
15,653
10,680
9,093
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
H2 2012 H2 2013 H2 2014 H2 2015 H2 2016
No.ofunits
Launches
8,163
6,874
8,607
9,170
7,308
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
H2 2012 H2 2013 H2 2014 H2 2015 H2 2016
No.ofunits
Sales
15%
20%

6. Substantial fall in H2 2016 has
pulled the annual numbers to
below 2015 performance

7. New launches witness a relatively controlled
decline of 8%; Sales fall by 14%
Yearly trend in launches and sales
22047
20441
30264
22753
20984
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
No.ofunits
Launches
16394
15553
18751
20618
17647
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
No.ofunits
Sales
8%
14%

8. While city sees subdued new
launches overall, Rajarhat and
South Kolkata lead launches share
in H2 2016

9. Rajarhat continues to lead in launches;
South sees considerable growth YoY
in H2 2016
Micro-marketwise half yearly trend in share of launches
1%
10%
20%
42%
27%
1%
10%
15%
40%
34%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Central East North Rajarhat South
H2 2015 H2 2016

10. Demand slackens in the city;
South follows Rajarhat closely in
share of sales

11. Host of affordable projects in the Southern
peripheral locations and upcoming metro rail
drive the demand
Micro-marketwise half yearly trend in share of sales
1%
7%
21%
46%
25%
2%
11%
18%
35% 34%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Central East North Rajarhat South
H2 2015 H2 2016

12. QTS on a gradual decline;
2.1 years to offload the unsold inventory
QTS trend
8.5
10.4
11.1
12.0
12.5
12.1
10.7 10.4
10.0
9.5
8.3
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
QTS
Unsold inventory
at 37,459 units

13. Impact of
Demonetisation

14. New launches fall by 25% YoY in Q4 2016;
Sales decline by 20%
Quarterly trend of new launches and sales
8347
6265
9739
5914
6523
5551
5562 4675
6213
5679 5587
3506
5265
4879
4212
4395
5664
5784
4684 4266
5241
5099
3895
3413
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016
No.ofunits
New Launch Absorption

15. Q4 revenue loss for both
State exchequer and industry
Average # units sold in
Q4 2014 & Q4 2015 4,331
# Units sold in Q4 2016 3,413
21% fall
in sales
Notional REVENUE LOSS
to real estate industry
INR 500 cr
State government notional
LOSS ON STAMP DUTY
INR 30 cr

16. Key takeaways
Launches go downhill, sales weaken in H2 2016 on a YoY basis
Garia, Baruipur and Narendrapur in South,
Sodepur, BT Road and Madhyamgram in North, as well as Rajarhat
attract buyers due to affordable prices
Uncertainty likely to continue for the next quarter
Reduction in home loan interest rates, RERA, GST and ‘possible’ tax
benefits in the upcoming budget likely to bring in a ‘feel good factor’
among buyers

17. Download the complete report from the link below:
bit.ly/IREH216-SS