Kamil Gregor: A Bayesian model of ecological inferece (presentation for the 2012 EUSOC Conference)
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This presentation was given by Kamil Gregor, data analyst with KohoVolt.eu, at the 2012 EUSOC Conference in Třebíč.
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Kamil Gregor: A Bayesian model of ecological inferece (presentation for the 2012 EUSOC Conference)
- 1. „Crazy 90s and boring 00s?“: The Stability of Structure of Individual-level behaviour in the Czech Republic Kamil Gregor
- 2. Why my paper sucks?
- 3. Why my paper sucks?
- 4. Why my paper sucks?
- 5. The method…
- 6. Ecological inference problem Blacks Whites Total 1000 600 400 ? ? 400 Voters ? ? 600 NonVoters
- 7. Ecological inference problem Blacks Whites Total 1000 600 400 ? ? 400 ? ? 600 Blacks Whites Total 1000 600 400 Voters 0 400 400 Voters NonVoters 0 0 600 NonVoters
- 9. Basic Statistical Undeterminacy Problem Whites Blacks Pi Ai Bi 1 – Pi Di – Ai (1 – Di) – Bi Total 1 Di 1 – Di Pi = AiDi + Bi(1 – Di) Voters Non-Voters
- 10. How to solve an unsolvable problem? • Surveys – sometimes unavaliable – Lack of resources – Unreliable responces – Ex post research (I do not see dead people) • Statistical models
- 12. Model assumptions • No changes in population • (No spatial autocorrelation) • A distribution of unobserved variables corresponds to an a priori chosen distribution
- 14. Bayesian models • Utilizing information on the distribution of observed variables to better assume a distribution of unobserved vatiables
- 15. What is it good for? • When dealing with aggregate data • Filling cells in a contingancy table A B C ? ? ? α ? ? ? β ? ? ? γ
- 16. Examples in political science • Social, economic and demographic characteristics of a population (e.g. an electorate of a political party) • Voter transitions between elections • Ticket-splitting
- 17. …and what to do with the method
- 18. Research question • What the hell is going on? • The process of party system structuralization in Central Europe in 1990s and 2000s • Central European party systems appear to be unstructuralized but there might be a „hidden“ structure • „Parties come and go but the structure remains the same (?)“
- 19. Research question • Is there a stable underlying structure of electoral behaviour in Central Europe? • The question is whether voters continually vote for political parties that occupy relatively similar position in a political space
- 20. The thesis • V4 countries • Parliamentary elections since early 1990s • Voter transition rates between political parties in pairs of consequential elections
- 22. A conceptualization of political space An old leftist party An old leftist party An old rightist party An old rightist party A new leftist party A new leftist party An old rightist party An old rightist party
- 23. Model A An old leftist party An old leftist party An old rightist party An old rightist party A new leftist party A new leftist party An old rightist party An old rightist party
- 24. Model B An old leftist party An old leftist party An old rightist party A new leftist party A new leftist party An old rightist party 1 An old rightist party An old rightist party
- 25. Model C An old leftist party An old leftist party An old rightist party An old rightist party A new leftist party A new leftist party An old rightist party An old rightist party
- 26. Model D An old leftist party An old leftist party An old rightist party An old rightist party A new leftist party A new leftist party An old rightist party An old rightist party
- 27. Operationalization • How to operationalize ideology? • How to operationalize „new“ and „old“? • Are these two concepts sufficient to describe a political space?
- 28. Possible results • „Crazy 1990s“ and „boring 2000s“? – Lack of structure in the 1990s and stability in 2000s • Why? – Relative unexperience of voters – „Crystalization“ of parties‘ ideological profiles
- 29. https://docs.google.com/spreadshe et/pub?key=0Asva5SIBKjNudF9oUUc 2MjNmMXYzN29KNmtCd2tZTmc&gi d=1
- 30. Thanks for your attention Kamil Gregor kamil.gregor@gmail.com