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Oleg Kshivets
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Kshivets barcelona2019
1.
21WCGIC Poster presented at: Gastric Cancer:
System Approach Kshivets Oleg Surgery Department, Roshal Hospital, Roshal, Moscow, Russia OBJECTIVE: Search of optimal diagnosis and treatment strategies for gastric cancer (GC) patients (GCP) (T1-4N0-2M0) realized. METHODS: We analyzed data of 788 consecutive GCP (age=57±9.4 years; tumor size=5.4±3.1 cm) radically operated (R0) and monitored in 1975-2019 (m=550, f=238; distal gastrectomies=460, proximal gastrectomies=163, total gastrectomies=165, combined gastrectomies with resection of pancreas, liver, diaphragm, colon transversum, esophagus, duodenum, splenectomy, small intestine, kidney, adrenal gland=241; D2- lymphadenectomy=513, D3-4=275; T1=235, T2=219, T3=179, T4=155; N0=432, N1=108, N2=248; G1=222, G2=161, G3=405; early GC=162, invasive=626; only surgery=620, adjuvant chemoimmunotherapy-AT=168 (5-FU + thymalin/taktivin). Multivariate Cox modeling, clustering, SEPATH, Monte Carlo, bootstrap and neural networks computing were used to determine any significant dependence. RESULTS: Overall life span (LS) was 2136.6±2311.4 days and cumulative 5-year survival (5YS) reached 58.4%, 10 years – 52.3%, 20 years – 40.3%. 314 GCP lived more than 5 years (LS=4323.2±2297.4 days), 171 GCP – more than 10 years (LS=5855.4±2083.6 days). 286 GCP died because of GC (LS=650.7±345.1 days). AT significantly improved 5YS (69% vs. 56.4%) (P=0.0176 by log-rank test). Cox modeling displayed that 5YS of GCP significantly depended on: phase transition (PT) early—invasive GC in terms of synergetics, PT N0—N12, cell ratio factors (ratio between cancer cells- CC and blood cells subpopulations), G, AT, procedure type, blood cell circuit, prothrombin index, hemorrhage time, residual nitrogen, ESS, gender (P=0.000-0.046). Neural networks, genetic algorithm selection and bootstrap simulation revealed relationships between 5YS and PT early-invasive GC (rank=1), PT N0—N12 (rank=2), healthy cells/CC (3); erythrocytes/CC (4), thrombocytes/CC (5), glucose (6), prothrombin index (7); monocytes/CC (8), lymphocytes/CC (9), eosinophils/CC (10), stick neutrophils/CC (11), segmented neutrophils/CC (12), leucocytes/CC (13). Correct prediction of 5YS was 100% by neural networks computing (area under ROC curve=1.0; error=0.0). CONCLUSIONS: Survival outcomes after radical procedures significantly depended on: 1) PT “early-invasive cancer”; 2) PT N0--N12; 3) Cell Ratio Factors; 4) blood cell circuit; 5) biochemical factors; 6) hemostasis system; 7) AT; 8) GC characteristics; 9) procedure type; 10) anthropometric data. Optimal diagnosis and treatment strategies for GC are: 1) screening and early detection; 2) availability of experienced abdominal surgeons because of complexity of radical procedures; 3) aggressive en block surgery and adequate lymph node dissection for completeness; 4) precise prediction; 5) adjuvant chemoimmunotherapy for GCP with unfavorable prognosis. P-143 Cox Proportional Hazards Results, n=788 Parameter Estimate Standard Error Chi- square P value 95% Lower CL 95% Upper CL Hazard Ratio ESS -0.012758 0.005051 6.38089 0.011536 -0.02266 -0.002859 0.987323 Hemorrhage Time 0.001282 0.000382 11.27865 0.000784 0.00053 0.002031 1.001283 Residual Nitrogen 0.046850 0.009246 25.67652 0.000000 0.02873 0.064972 1.047965 Prothrombin Index 0.020024 0.005074 15.57157 0.000079 0.01008 0.029969 1.020225 Phase Transition N0—N12 0.843907 0.129833 42.24932 0.000000 0.58944 1.098374 2.325434 Gender 0.329383 0.125060 6.93693 0.008443 0.08427 0.574495 1.390110 Operation Type 0.149964 0.075202 3.97667 0.046135 0.00257 0.297358 1.161793 Adjuvant Chemoimmunotherapy -0.619714 0.183454 11.41118 0.000730 -0.97928 -0.260152 0.538098 Phase Transition Early GC—Invasive GC 0.747383 0.298512 6.26851 0.012290 0.16231 1.332455 2.111467 Segmented Neutrophils (tot) 0.844260 0.355982 5.62466 0.017710 0.14655 1.541971 2.326255 Lymphocytes (tot) 0.799475 0.355328 5.06234 0.024451 0.10305 1.495904 2.224372 Segmented Neutrophils/Cancer Cells -0.079159 0.031775 6.20620 0.012730 -0.14144 -0.016881 0.923893 Eosinophils (tot) 0.878755 0.358639 6.00373 0.014276 0.17584 1.581675 2.407901 Stick Neutrophils (tot) 0.761365 0.357698 4.53056 0.033295 0.06029 1.462441 2.141197 Leucocytes (tot) -0.827333 0.355348 5.42068 0.019900 -1.52380 -0.130864 0.437214 Monocytes (tot) 0.930051 0.368213 6.37993 0.011542 0.20837 1.651734 2.534638 G1-3 0.136446 0.067229 4.11909 0.042402 0.00468 0.268213 1.146193 Bootstrap Simulation Rank Kendall’Tau-A P< Healthy Cells/Cancer Cells 1 0.240 0.000 Tumor Size 2 -0.234 0.000 Leucocytes/Cancer Cells 3 0.228 0.000 PT N0---N12 4 -0.227 0.000 Erythrocytes/Cancer Cells 5 -0.217 0.000 Residual Nitrogen 6 -0.217 0.000 Lymphocytes/Cancer Cells 7 0.216 0.000 T1-4 8 -0.214 0.000 Segmented Neutrophils/Cancer Cells 9 0.211 0.000 Thrombocytes/Cancer Cells 10 0.206 0.000 Hemorrhage Time 11 -0.199 0.000 PT Early---Invasive Cancer 12 -0.192 0.000 Monocytes/Cancer Cells 13 0.147 0.000 Tumor Growth 14 -0.133 0.000 G1-3 15 -0.117 0.001 Localization 16 -0.116 0.000 Chlorides 17 0.105 0.001 Histology 18 -0.084 0.01 Operation Type 19 -0.083 0.01 Combined Operation 20 0.064 0.05 Prothrombin Index 21 -0.055 0.05 Glucose 22 0.054 0.05 Neural Networks: Baseline Error=0.000 Area under ROC Curve=1.000 Correct Classification Rate=100%, n=600 Rank Sensitivity Phase Transition Early-Invasive Cancer Phase Transition N0-N12 Healthy Cells/Cancer Cells Erythrocytes/Cancer Cells Thrombocytes/Cancer Cells Glucose Prothrombin Index Monocytes/Cancer Cells Lymphocytes/Cancer Cells Eosinophils/Cancer Cells Stick Neutrophils/Cancer Cells Segmented Neutrophils/Cancer Cells Leucocytes/Cancer Cells 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 27747 18185 16386 10503 6864 4610 4542 4431 3744 3539 2974 2803 2430 Survival Function 5-Year Survival=58.4%; 10-Year Survival=52.3%; 20-Year Survival=40.3%; n=788; T1-4N0-2M0 Complete Censored -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Years after Gastrectomies 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 CumulativeProportionSurviving Cumulative Proportion Surviving (Kaplan-Meier) 5-Year Survival of Early Gastric Cancer Patients=97.2%; 5-Year Survival of Invasive Gastric Cancer Patients=47%; P=0.000 by Log-Rank Test Complete Censored 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Years after Gastrectomies 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 CumulativeProportionSurviving Invasive GCP=626 Early GCP=162 Cumulative Proportion Surviving (Kaplan-Meier) 5-Year Survival of GCP with N0=76.5; 5-Year Survival of GCP with N1-2=34.9%, P=0.000 by Log-Rank Test Complete Censored 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Years after Gastrectomies 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 CumulativeProportionSurviving GCP with N1-2=356 GCP with N0=432 Cumulative Proportion Surviving (Kaplan-Meier) 5-Year Survival of GCP after Adjuvant Treatment=69%; 5-Year Survival of GCP after Surgery=56.4%, P=0.0176 by Log-Rank Test Complete Censored 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Years after Gastrectomies 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 CumulativeProportionSurviving Only Surgery, n=620 Adjuvant Chemoimmunotherapy, n=168 143--P Oleg Kshivets DOI: 10.3252/pso.eu.21wcgic.2019 Clinical Gastric Cancer
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