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Adaptation 090214
- 1. Adapting to to a Changing Climate David Schmidt, PE University of Minnesota
- 2. • Definitions and Terminology • Framework • Examples Outline
- 4. Why Change (Adapt)? Profitability Policy or Regulation Other
- 5. We are Adapting to Climate Profitability
- 6. Definition Adaptation: Adjustment or preparation of natural or human systems to a new or changing environment which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities. (EPA)
- 7. Definition Risk Management: The process of assessing risk and acting in such a manner . . . so as to avoid or minimize loss associated with such risk. (Webster’s)
- 8. Resilience Short Term Adaptation Long Term Practical Definition
- 9. Parks Drought Resilience Short Term Parks Drought Adaptation Long Term
- 10. Resilience vs Adaptation Short Term vs Long Term
- 11. Climate Impact Categories Farm Inputs Animal Production Farm Logistics Farm Exports
- 12. Farm Inputs Short Term Long Term Increase Feed Storage Capacity Crop or Pasture Insurance Water Conservation Multi-Sourcing Pasture Improvements Install or modify Irrigation Feed, Water, Young Stock
- 13. Animal Production Short Term Long Term Animal health, growth, and reproduction Monitoring Heat and Health Hot Weather Feeding Plans Reproduction Plans Insurance? Genetics
- 14. Logistics Manure Handling, Transportation, Employees Short Term Long Term Backup Power System Ventilation Maintenance Animal Handling Protocols Manure Application and Timing Emergency Response Planning New Ventilation/Cooling System New Building with Cooling Expand Manure Storage
- 15. Farm Exports Short Term Long Term Contracting Ag Policy Changes Insurance Farm Diversification Markets Photo: StarTribune
- 16. Examples Changes due to Climate and Weather
- 18. Rest of the Story • Lots with shade (24 sq feet per head) had 0.2% death loss • Lots with no shade averaged 4.8% death loss • Other contributing factors – Weight of animals – Color of animals – Direction of slope on lots
- 19. Weathering Drought with Cow-Calf Grazing System (Daybreak Ranch, SD) Five Point Drought Plan • Increase stored and standing forages – diversification of grass species • Changed grazing management to build resilience in soils and grasses (moisture and erosion) • Store more hay • Monitor rain events • Adjust stocking density Weathering Drought (Agriculture.com, 2013)
- 20. Geothermal Swine Gestation Barn in Western Minnesota • 650 gestation to wean facility • Very Long Term Planning • Increased pigs per sow • Improved Health • Significant investment
- 21. Beef Herd Genetics Texas Trends in Farm Genetics based on climate
- 22. Southwest MN Confinement Beef • Tired of fighting the weather – Snow, cold, rain and mud, heat waves • Labor shortage • Moved over 2/3 of animals inside
- 23. Southwest MN Filtered Barn Finishing barn Pathogen Protection Claimed Results for piglets • 10% improvement in ADG • 50% drop in mortality
- 24. How to Decide?
- 25. Benefit-Cost Analysis Which of these systems is most profitable?
- 26. Benefit-Cost Analysis Cost of Damage (Benefits) CosttoAvoidDamage
- 27. Decision Reality Evaluated their own financials Talked to farmers in the area to get costs and benefits Learned from mistakes Built a new and improved design
- 28. Goal is Long Term Profitability Understand Your Climate Understand Your Farm Vulnerabilities (Data) Evaluate Your Options Short and Long Term Decision Reality
- 29. Adaptation Audit Impacts Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Option 4 Heat Stress Management Cooling System Diet Genetics Water Availability New water source Water conservation Diversification of Crops ? Manure Construct new Storage Timing of Application Cover storage ? Identify and Evaluate Options
- 30. Changing Agriculture How will agriculture change in the next 100
- 32. For More Information Course Reading and Project Website www.animalagclimatechange.org
- 33. Livestock and Poultry Environmental Learning Center Project Support This project was supported by Agricultural and Food Research Initiative Competitive Grant No. 2011-67003-30206 from the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture.
- 34. www.animalagclimatechange.org National Lead: University of Nebraska Regional Partners: University of Georgia; Cornell University; University of Minnesota; Texas A&M AgriLife Extension, and Washington State University. Project Partners Our Mission Animal agriculture in a changing climate fosters animal production practices that are: environmentally sound and economically viable, and that create resiliency for animal producers and their partners.
Notes de l'éditeur
- Hello . . .
- In this brief lecture we will provide you with some working definitions of adaptation and a framework for thinking about adaptation in the animal agriculture industry. We will then go through a few examples of adaptation on the farm.
- All of agriculture is changing and has been changing. The horse and buggy photo is of my father – the one sitting between his sisters and riding with his grandparents. My father is in the other photo also as I took him out to see a new swine gestation barn complete with a geothermal cooling system. He has seen many changes in agriculture over his 86 years of life.
- Agriculture changed primarily because the adaptation of new technologies made farms more profitable. Yes some changes, were also driven by policy or regulations set up to benefit the larger good but with even that there must be individual farm profitability.
- One other thing that has driven agriculture change is climate change and it is for the same reason agriculture will continue to adapt to climate – profitability.
- Climate Change Adaptation is the most common terminology used to discuss how cities and states are planning for . . . or responding to . . . a changing climate. Cities and states are currently making drafting plans to help them prepare for weather events such as flooding, extreme heat events, disease outbreaks, and other weather related events. . . . . Risk Management is more commonly used in business and refers to the process of identifying, assisting, prioritizing of risk followed by some application of resources to minimize or control the probability of these risks. In general terms the concepts are similar so long as both require an active process of assessing impacts and making preparation for these impacts.
- Risk Management is more commonly used in business and refers to the process of identifying, assisting, prioritizing of risk followed by some application of resources to minimize or control the probability of these risks. In general terms the concepts are similar so long as both require an active process of assessing impacts and making preparation for these impacts.
- We can refer to short term as building resilience with our current farming practices. In many cases this resilience is enough. Short term profitability through small changes – making farms less vulnerable to the climate variability. However, there may be times with large investments where long term profitability is required. This large long term investment must consider future climate just as they would consider all of the other uncertainties over the life of the investment.
- We can refer to short term as building resilience with our current farming practices. In many cases this resilience is enough. Short term profitability through small changes – making farms less vulnerable to the climate variability. However, there may be times with large investments where long term profitability is required. This large long term investment must consider future climate just as they would consider all of the other uncertainties over the life of the investment.
- I see Adaptation in two categories, short term and long term.
- We will organize our thoughts on adaptation along the lines of our impact categories of inputs, animal production, logistics, and exports.
- In looking at farm inputs, we need to think about making the feed and water supplies more secure. This means something different to those growing their own feed or purchasing feed. It means something different for those who pump water from an aquifer or get it from a river sourced by snow melt. What about energy to run our equipment or cool our animals or product. Is the energy supply secure? This also falls into the logistics category. Long term investments might be pasture or rangeland improvements or irrigation installations. Maybe it is drilling well or purchasing water rights. These are site specific.
- Short term in animal production changes might include improved monitoring programs for diseases, health and heat stress. Improved protocols for feeding in hot and cold weather. Maybe it is the addition of more watering locations, shade structures or other heat abatement systems. Longer term planning for future climate might include changing the farm genetics for heat stress and efficiencies.
- Logistics covers a wide range of things. In the short term we think of being prepared with back up power for critical functions around the farm and Emergency response plans for weather extremes. Other planning and protocol development prior to weather changes is also important. Is there a drought plan, a heat wave plan, a flood plan? Setting aside that higher ground for manure management or making sure the manure storage never gets full are all part of building this short term resilience. In looking out 5-10 or 20 years with climate we might consider investing in a better ventilation or cooling system. Many of the new dairy farms in the Midwest are moving away from natural ventilated barns to mechanically ventilated barns to give better control of the environmental conditions in the barn. Geothermal cooling might be considered in this long term logistics. Maybe it is more manure storage or covered manure storage to protect against the trend toward more rainfall? Including advanced cooling systems in new facilities. Or maybe it is a retrofit of existing barns to help with animal cooling.
- Unfortunately farmers do not have much control over the market price of their products. Natural economic cycles of supply and demand, local and national economics all play a roll and all are impacted by climate and weather. Contracting for our products is common as is insurance. This may become more important in the future and these programs may be changing as a result of climate and weather changes. In the long term it may be more diversification of products produced. Farmers with one product – such as the one who owns this almond grove in California - may be thinking more about diversification with the problems faced with the ongoing drought and water shortage issues.
- We can all think of ways that farmers have adapted to climate and weather. We saw some of them (like irrigation) in the previous slides Here are a few more.
- A report from Iowa Beef Center in 1995 discussed a survey of beef producers who lost cattle in a 13 county area over a 2 day period. For those farmers loosing animals, the impact was significant but this quote sums up the cost benefit decision that must be made when planning for changing climate. “How much can a feedlot operator spend to protect against a weather event that has occurred only six times in the last 101 years.” This is a real and critical question that must be asked. What if this similar type of heat event started occurring every 10 years, or every 5 years? This changes the equation when looking at risk and reward or cost benefit to the implementation of practices or systems to deal with extreme heat.
- The bottom line is that those with shade had a 0.2% death loss and those without shade had a 4.8% death loss. News traveled quickly and shade structures became more common – and are still being installed as geographic locations experience more heat.
- Here is a farm in South Dakota that was featured in a news story because of their strategy to survive drought. They do a considerable amount of monitoring of grasses and weather and then adjust their feed storage, animal numbers, stocking density and pasture grasses to build in more resilience.
- A swine farm in western minnesota that invested a significant amount of capital in a geothermal cooling system for their gestation barn. Their goal was to be in the farming business over 100 years from now and determined that the cost to cool their animals would be profitable in the long run.
- A study of breed allocation in Texas showed that heat tolerant breeds (Brahman) are more prevalent in the warmer parts of Texas.
- A Beef Farm in Southwest Minnesota was tired of fighting the weather and determined that the added investment to move most of their animals in doors was profitable in the long run and met their labor needs and other criteria.
- So this decision making process is not easy as there is more
- Which of these systems is most profitable when considerng heat stress? Short term? Long Term?
- In simplest terms the cost of adaptation must be less than the cost of not adapting. Unfortunately, this is not so simple as there is LOTS of uncertainty. This uncertainty comes primarily in the cost of damage (draw uncertainty lines in damage costs) . This is a function of the future weather and climate risks and the impacts on the farm caused by this climate and the effectiveness of the benefits. WE really don’t understand the full impact of heat stress on dairy so how can we possibly estimate the damage or the benefit of some heat abatement system. This uncertainty also comes in the form of the benefits. How much economic benefit in cow cooling? I challenge anyone to put a economic value on eliminating 10 days per year of a THI over 75.
- I want to go back for a moment to the new confinement construction going on in the SE MN. Likely there are examples in your region and your particular species also. There are no fancy extension publications or research bulletins to help ranchers choose to have open lots or confinement barns. I have looked at some simple calculators for on farm decisions and they are quite complex and rely on a number of very uncertain estimates. The way much of the decisions get made are through private industry sales. But even with these sales pitches the selling comes when word travels from farmer to farmer. One farmer got sick of dealing with weather and figured out a better way. He learned some does and don’ts and passed the information to others and the cycle of development began. It would be nice to say that a University system was behind all of this development and did the cost benefit analysis and determined this was the best, but this was not the case. Some data comparing animal performance in these structures was done in the late 1970’s but that could not really tell the whole story. In this case, farmers talked with farmers and each built on the others experience to come up with something that made sense to this family. To the best of their knowledge, the building will pay for itself in 5-7 years. If winters are colder and summers hotter and wetter – it could pay off sooner.
- Good decisions result in long term profitability. This is the primary goal. In order to achieve this, farmers must know their climate and understand their specific farm vulnerabilities. Often any long term decision on a farm is made with a team of experts in a variety of fields that look at all aspects of a farm operation as any decision requires knowledge of farm finances, management structure, equipment and facilities, long term goals, etc.. These experts look at options and whey the costs and benefits. With the added feature of climate uncertainty there is just one more factor that is included in the farm decision making process. For example, a particular vulnerability might be heat stress on a dairy. This added factor touches on herd reproduction, milking, feeding, and farm maintenance. Options might be eat stress requires us to be informed about the latest cooling options and the latest information on feeding strategies during hot weather or the possible options for animal genetics that may be more tolerant.
- After the vulnerabilities are determined and a list of options are formulated there is the challenge of deciding. For instance, dairy heat stress requires us to be informed about the latest cooling options and the latest information on feeding strategies during hot weather or the possible options for animal genetics that may be more tolerant. We cannot provide all of the many impacts and adaptation strategies for a changing climate. If you were hoping to get step by step adaptation strategies then you are likely disappointed. Rather we hope to give a strategy or framework to help evaluate the many options that might be fit for a particular farm in some particular geographic area. In the course reading material we have posted several of the best adaptation strategy documents or videos for different species. I encourage you to take a look.
- I will be curious what agriculture looks like in 100 years. I may not see it but my grandchildren will.
- Agriculture will continue to change. What it looks like 35 or 80 years from now is being decided now.
- There is more information in the course and on our project website.
- All of the work on this project was done through the generous support of you and your tax dollars through the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture.
- Project partners include the University of Nebraska as lead institution and the regional partners as shown. For more information, please visit us online at animalagclimatechange.org