We know that climate change generates reactions from deep concern to disbelief. Regional outreach programs that develop materials for extension agents must understand two audiences–the extension agent and the ultimate receiver to be effective. Previous research suggests that Americans fall into six categories, or “Six Americas,” with their perspectives on climate change (alarmed to dismissive). Our 2011-2012 study used a 56-item web-based survey to collect data from extension professionals (n=2,758) in eight southeastern states and classify them according to the Six Americas spectrum. Using econometric modeling techniques, we specify predictive models of extension professionals’ perceptions on climate change as a function of several factors, including location (e.g., from coastal counties), political leaning (e.g., conservative), major program area (e.g., livestock), and position in extension (e.g., extension agent). We present the results of these models, and briefly discuss potential application of the models and implications of the findings for program development, long term education strategies, and climate change messaging.
http://www.extension.org/pages/67718/predicting-extension-professionals-climate-change-perceptions
1. Pine Integrated Network: Education, Mitigation, and Adaptation project (PINEMAP) is a Coordinated
Agriculture Project funded by the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Predicting Extension
Professionals’ Climate
Change Perceptions
The Six Americas of Extension
Waste to Worth: Spreading Science and Solutions.
Denver, CO. April 1-5, 2013
Damian Adams, Martha Monroe, and
Richard Plate
2. Pine Integrated Network: Education, Mitigation, and Adaptation project (PINEMAP) is a Coordinated
Agriculture Project funded by the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture
The Problem
• Climate is changing
– 97% of climate scientists agree; models are robust and
improving
• American public is polarized
– 16% doubtful that global warming is happening
– 9% actively fighting any activity that would address
climate change. Leiserowitz et al. 2012
• Climate change a huge challenge to educators:
– Issue is complex; causes are invisible
– Implications are distant & uncertain; feedback weak
– Effective campaign to increase confusion and mistrust Moser
2010
3. Pine Integrated Network: Education, Mitigation, and Adaptation project (PINEMAP) is a Coordinated
Agriculture Project funded by the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture
PINEMAP
• Regional research and Extension project
• Improving capacity of Southern pine landowners to
mitigate against and adapt to climate changes
• Conveying research results and recommended
management practices will use Extension Service
• Developing materials for Extension agents requires us to
know more about their perceptions and beliefs about
climate change
4. Pine Integrated Network: Education, Mitigation, and Adaptation project (PINEMAP) is a Coordinated
Agriculture Project funded by the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture
The Questions
• How do Extension professionals in the SE perceive the
issue of climate change?
– Does their perception vary with program area? State?
Position?
• What are the perceptions of limitations to delivering
programs on climate change?
• What is needed to implement climate programs?
5. Pine Integrated Network: Education, Mitigation, and Adaptation project (PINEMAP) is a Coordinated
Agriculture Project funded by the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Public Perceptions
• Yale and George Mason Universities conducted several
national studies on public perceptions of climate
change, grouping the respondents into Six Americas:
6. Pine Integrated Network: Education, Mitigation, and Adaptation project (PINEMAP) is a Coordinated
Agriculture Project funded by the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Developing Survey
• Used Six Americas questions at the core
– Able to compare results; Cannot change wording
– Included their definitions of global warming and climate change
• Included questions on Extension programming
• Pilot test (n=32) in 4 states. Added comment boxes.
• Worked with state Extension Directors
• Four reminders to boost response rate
• Non-response contacts to assess bias. None.
7. Pine Integrated Network: Education, Mitigation, and Adaptation project (PINEMAP) is a Coordinated
Agriculture Project funded by the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture
State Cooperators
• Fall 2011:
– Alabama (Auburn, Alabama A&M, Tuskegee)
– Florida (UF and FAMU)
– Georgia (UGA)
– Mississippi (MSU and Alcorn)
– North Carolina (NCSU and NCAT)
– Texas (TAMU and Prairie View)
– Virginia (VA Tech and VSU)
• Spring 2012:
– Louisiana (LSU and Southern University)
8. Pine Integrated Network: Education, Mitigation, and Adaptation project (PINEMAP) is a Coordinated
Agriculture Project funded by the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Response Rates
Study Area Total Response Total Population Response Rate
AL 234 375 62.4%
FL 489 764 64.0%
GA 296 372 79.6%
LA 340 574 59.2%
MS 331 428 77.3%
NC 444 637 69.7%
TX 354 570 62.1%
VA 270 413 65.4%
All 8 States 2,758 4,133 66.7%
9. Pine Integrated Network: Education, Mitigation, and Adaptation project (PINEMAP) is a Coordinated
Agriculture Project funded by the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture
We Are Six Americas, Too
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Alarmed Concerned Cautious Disengaged Doubtful Dismissive
U.S. (n=1000)
Southeast Extension (n=2589)
Delivery-Yes (n=2372)
=2589)s (n=2372)
As a whole, Extension professionals mirror the general public in
perceptions of climate change.
Note: US data from Leiserowitz et al. (2012)
10. Pine Integrated Network: Education, Mitigation, and Adaptation project (PINEMAP) is a Coordinated
Agriculture Project funded by the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
MS
(n=279)
TX
(n=339)
AL
(n=215)
LA
(n=243)
GA
(n=279)
All
(n=2372)
VA
(n=233)
NC
(n=353)
FL
(n=431)
Dismissive
Doubtful
Disengaged
Cautious
Concerned
Alarmed
Perceptions Differ by State
11. Pine Integrated Network: Education, Mitigation, and Adaptation project (PINEMAP) is a Coordinated
Agriculture Project funded by the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture
And by Political Identity
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
V. Cons. (n=194) Cons. (n=843) Neutral (n=843) Liberal (n=301) V. Lib. (n=50)
Dismissive
Doubtful
Disengaged
Concerned
Cautious
Alarmed
Note: All groups are different from all others—chi-square p<0.05
12. Pine Integrated Network: Education, Mitigation, and Adaptation project (PINEMAP) is a Coordinated
Agriculture Project funded by the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture
And by Primary Program Area
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Ag_Live (n=253)Ag_Crops (n=369)Sup/ Admin (n=121)All (n=2372)FH_Lead, FH_Oth (n=471)Hort_Com, Hort_Oth (n=374)NR_Mar, NR_For, NR_Wood, Aqua (n=141)ComEcDev, FCS_Oth (n=203)FCS_FNH (n=324)NR_Fresh, NR_EE, NR_Oth (n=98)
Dismissive
Doubtful
Disengaged
Cautious
Concerned
Alarmed
13. Pine Integrated Network: Education, Mitigation, and Adaptation project (PINEMAP) is a Coordinated
Agriculture Project funded by the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Regression Model Results
SE AL FL GA LA MS NC TX VA
Constant Constant +*** +*** +*** +*** +*** +*** +*** +*** +***
Gender Female -*** -*** -*** -*** -*
Age 21-30 +*** +*** +*
31-40 +** +** +**
51-60 +***
61-70 and 70 or older -* -**
Education Bachelor's -** -* -*
Doctoral -**
Politics V. Conservative +*** +*** +*** +** +*** +*** +*** +*** +***
Conservative +*** +*** +*** +*** +** +*** +*** +** +***
Liberal -*** -*** -** -** -*** -** -***
V. Liberal -*** -** -** -***
Years in Ext. < 1 -*** -* -**
1-5 -*** -***
6-10 -*** -**
11-15 -**
26-30 -** -**
> 30 -** -*
Role XAdmin
XFac +* +*
XProg +***
NXAdmin
NXOther +**
14. Pine Integrated Network: Education, Mitigation, and Adaptation project (PINEMAP) is a Coordinated
Agriculture Project funded by the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Regression Model Results – cont’d
SE AL FL GA LA MS NC TX VA
Scale County/Parish -* -**
State -*** -** -** -***
Mult States/Other -*** -** -** -*** -**
Density All rural
More rural -*
More urban +*** +***
All urban -*
Location Coastal -*** -* -** -* -**
Inland -*** -** -* -** -*** -*** -***
CC program
involvement
Developed -*** -*** -*** -** -*** -**
Participated in -*** -*** -*
Primary area Ag crops and business/mgt -** -* -*
Nat Res - marine, wildlife, forestry,
wood, aquaculture
-*
Nat Res - env ed, fr water, other -*** -** -*** -*
4H -*** -** -**
Family Comm - nutrition/health -*** -*** -** -**
Comm Econ Dev, Family Comm –
other
-*
Hort - cmrl & other, Ag - other, Pests -*** -*
Program support/admin -** -*
Sub area* role Nat Res - forestry, wood - all roles +** +*
15. Pine Integrated Network: Education, Mitigation, and Adaptation project (PINEMAP) is a Coordinated
Agriculture Project funded by the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Regression Model Results
SE AL FL GA LA MS NC TX VA
Constant Constant 3.93*** 4.02*** 3.63*** 4.43*** 4.41*** 4.02*** 3.91*** 4.7*** 3.0***
Gender Female -0.39*** -0.36*** -0.69*** -0.52*** -0.41*
Age 21-30 0.34*** 0.8*** 0.64*
31-40 0.19** 0.44** 0.52**
51-60 0.66***
61-70 and 70 or older -0.89* 0.98**
Education Bachelor's -0.37** -0.5* -1.0*
Doctoral -0.37**
Politics V. Conservative 1.45*** 1.51*** 1.78*** 0.72** 0.78*** 1.58*** 1.34*** 1.05*** 1.28***
Conservative 0.89*** 1.12*** 1.2*** 0.73*** 0.36** 0.81*** 0.84*** 0.46** 0.91***
Liberal -0.71*** -0.57*** -0.83** -0.74** -0.5*** -0.88** -0.97***
V. Liberal -0.97*** -0.73** -1.97** -1.16***
Years in Ext. < 1 -0.59*** -0.71* -0.88**
1-5 -0.33*** -0.58***
6-10 -0.3*** -0.48**
11-15 -0.18**
26-30 -0.24** -0.55**
> 30 -0.31** -0.75*
Role XAdmin
XFac 0.5* 0.72*
XProg 0.74***
NXAdmin
NXOther 0.76**
16. Pine Integrated Network: Education, Mitigation, and Adaptation project (PINEMAP) is a Coordinated
Agriculture Project funded by the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Regression Model Results – cont’d
SE AL FL GA LA MS NC TX VA
Scale County/Parish -0.46* 0.49**
State -0.44*** -0.63** -0.79** -1.59***
Mult States/Other -0.74*** -0.65** -1.01** -2.29*** -0.94**
Density All rural
More rural 0.46*
More urban -0.73*** 1.1***
All urban -0.66*
Location Coastal -0.45*** -0.3* -0.56** -0.5* -0.73**
Inland -0.36*** -0.6** -0.26* -0.68** -0.74*** -0.48*** -0.52***
CC program
involvement
Developed -0.52*** -0.88*** -0.69*** -0.65** -0.96*** -0.5**
Participated in -0.26*** -0.82*** -0.4*
Primary area Ag crops and business/mgt -0.23** -0.52* -0.51*
Nat Res - marine, wildlife, forestry,
wood, aquaculture
-0.27*
Nat Res - env ed, fr water, other -0.56*** -1.96** -1.13*** -1.17*
4H -0.42*** -0.9** -0.61**
Family Comm - nutrition/health -0.58*** -1.42*** -0.85** -0.69**
Comm Econ Dev, Family Comm –
other
-0.23*
Hort - cmrl & other, Ag - other, Pests -0.35*** -0.61*
Program support/admin -0.35** -1*
Sub area* role Nat Res - forestry, wood - all roles 0.28** 0.79*
17. Pine Integrated Network: Education, Mitigation, and Adaptation project (PINEMAP) is a Coordinated
Agriculture Project funded by the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Convert a barrier to opportunity
• Homophily – the tendency to listen to people who share
your values and beliefs – restricts the flow of new
information
– People confirm what they already know, and reject what doesn’t
match – Moser 2010
– Network of change agent/educators who match the American
public and can convey climate information across these
audiences?
• Educators reflect the American public, deliver science-
based programs in every county, are trusted by their
audiences, in part because they are similar
• Could effective in-service training and institutional
support enable them to become effective climate
educators for their portion of the public?
18. Pine Integrated Network: Education, Mitigation, and Adaptation project (PINEMAP) is a Coordinated
Agriculture Project funded by the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Review of Respondent Comments:
Concerned and Alarmed
• Likely to be heard only by other concerned and alarmed
people
• Can use the few conservatives to reach across gaps
• Need to learn how to communicate with people who are
not as concerned by understanding their perspectives
• Can address mitigation and adaptation with other
concerned folks
19. Pine Integrated Network: Education, Mitigation, and Adaptation project (PINEMAP) is a Coordinated
Agriculture Project funded by the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Comments: Cautious,
Disengaged, Doubtful
• Need to see the relevance to their program area
• Need to see there are some solutions and reasonable
actions
• Can they overcome personal beliefs and doubts and be
effective communicators to other cautious and
disengaged people?
• Focus on adaptation solutions to climate uncertainty—
sea level and agriculture challenges
20. Pine Integrated Network: Education, Mitigation, and Adaptation project (PINEMAP) is a Coordinated
Agriculture Project funded by the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Comments: Dismissive
• Most challenging because they are convinced the science
is wrong, and have a lot of facts to support their
opinions
• May also take a faith in God as a reason to avoid
responsibility
• Need to find trusted scientists
• Need institutional leadership
• May need a process that engages them in exploration to
empower understanding
• Focus on energy conservation, renewable resources,
stewardship, vulnerable populations
21. Pine Integrated Network: Education, Mitigation, and Adaptation project (PINEMAP) is a Coordinated
Agriculture Project funded by the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Some Suggestions
• Could launch state programs that
– Make clear their leadership and support
– Engage teams of faculty to develop ISTs that answer their
questions
– Provide information on local impacts and practical
solutions
• Will need to develop a training program that
– Provides a solid foundation about climate
– Builds skills in communication and facilitation
– Acknowledges values and beliefs
– Rebuilds trust in science
22. Pine Integrated Network: Education, Mitigation, and Adaptation project (PINEMAP) is a Coordinated
Agriculture Project funded by the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Thank You
Damian C. Adams
dcadams@ufl.edu
Martha C. Monroe
mcmonroe@ufl.edu
23. Pine Integrated Network: Education, Mitigation, and Adaptation project (PINEMAP) is a Coordinated
Agriculture Project funded by the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Summary Statistics
Category Variable SE
Six Am. Segment 3.19 (1.48)
Gender Female 0.49 (0.48)
Age 21-30 0.09 (0.27)
31-40 0.22 (0.4)
51-60 0.35 (0.46)
61-70 and 70 or older 0.09 (0.28)
Education Bachelor's 0.06 (0.22)
Doctoral 0.25 (0.42)
Politics V. Conservative 0.09 (0.27)
Conservative 0.37 (0.46)
Liberal 0.13 (0.32)
V. Liberal 0.02 (0.14)
Years in Ext. < 1 0.04 (0.18)
1-5 0.22 (0.4)
6-10 0.18 (0.37)
11-15 0.17 (0.37)
26-30 0.08 (0.26)
> 30 0.07 (0.25)
Role XAdmin 0.06 (0.24)
XFac 0.22 (0.41)
XProg 0.08 (0.27)
NXAdmin 0.03 (0.16)
NXOther 0.07 (0.26)
Category Variable SE
Scale County/Parish 0.54 (0.5)
State 0.23 (0.42)
Mult States/Other 0.06 (0.23)
Density All rural 0.26 (0.43)
More rural 0.35 (0.46)
More urban 0.14 (0.33)
All urban 0.05 (0.21)
Location Coastal 0.15 (0.26)
Inland 0.66 (0.35)
CC program
involvement
Developed 0.13 (0.33)
Participated in 0.22 (0.41)
Primary area Ag crops and business/mgt 0.15 (0.36)
Nat Res - marine, wildlife,
forestry, wood, aquaculture
0.06 (0.23)
Nat Res - env ed, fr water, other 0.04 (0.19)
4H 0.19 (0.39)
Family Commun -
nutrition/health
0.13 (0.34)
Community Econ Dev, Family
Commun - other
0.08 (0.28)
Hort - commercial & other, Ag -
other, Pests
0.15 (0.35)
Program support/admin 0.09 (0.29)
Sub area*role Nat Res - forestry, wood - all
roles
0.06 (0.21)
26. Pine Integrated Network: Education, Mitigation, and Adaptation project (PINEMAP) is a Coordinated
Agriculture Project funded by the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Coastal Location Matters
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
All (n=2372) Serving Coastal (n=208) Serving Inland (n=894) Serving Both (n=268)
Dismissive
Doubtful
Disengaged
Cautious
Concerned
Alarmed
* Different from all other categories; Chi-square, p<0.01
27. Pine Integrated Network: Education, Mitigation, and Adaptation project (PINEMAP) is a Coordinated
Agriculture Project funded by the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
All
(n=2372)
21-30
(n=217)
31-40
(n=538)
41-50
(n=585)
51-60
(n=792)
>60
(n=199)
Dismissive
Doubtful
Disengaged
Concerned
Cautious
Alarmed
Six Americas by Age and Education
for Program Deliverers
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Less than
Bachelor's
(n=71)
Bachers or
Master's
(n=1678)
Beyond
Master's
(n=587)
Dismissive
Doubtful
Disengaged
Cautious
Concerned
Alarmed
* Different from all other categories; Chi-square, p<0.01
28. Pine Integrated Network: Education, Mitigation, and Adaptation project (PINEMAP) is a Coordinated
Agriculture Project funded by the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Agents and Specialists Differ
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
All Ext. Agent
(n=1448)
Ext. Spec.
(n=545)
Dismissive
Doubtful
Disengaged
Cautious
Concerned
Alarmed
29. Pine Integrated Network: Education, Mitigation, and Adaptation project (PINEMAP) is a Coordinated
Agriculture Project funded by the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Natural Resources Ag Livestock and Crops
NR and Ag program faculty differ
• Respondents are
significantly different
from all other groups
• More likely to be
Alarmed and Concerned
• More likely to have
PhD, work on coast, be
liberal, be state specialist
• Respondents are
significantly different from
other groups
• More likely to be
Dismissive, Doubtful
• More men, more
agents, more
conservative, fewer
PhDs, work inland
30. Pine Integrated Network: Education, Mitigation, and Adaptation project (PINEMAP) is a Coordinated
Agriculture Project funded by the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture
FL Example: And yet…
• 65% have never attended an IST on climate
• But 53% are somewhat willing; 32% are very
willing to do so
• 18% don’t know if global warming is
happening (76 respondents)
• 41% agree “the scientific community has a
political agenda” (145 respondents/358)
• 82% need more information to make up their
minds (352/431)
Notes de l'éditeur
CitiingLeiserowitz et al. 2012 publication in which they report Nov 2011 data.
Updated for Deb’s numbers
People identified their top 3 priority program areasLivestock, Wildlife, Horticulture, Forestry, 4-H, Nutrition, Marine, etc.We assessed Priority 1 program areas with Six Americas categoriesSimilar program areas with similar categories were combined. Significant differences were kept separate.