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Working together
for a safer world
Methods for evaluating risk caused by ice
throw from wind turbines
Helge Ausland Refsum, Lloyd's Register Consulting
Rolv Erlend Bredesen, Kjeller Vindteknikk
Winterwind 2015, Piteå, Sweden
©Lloyd’s Register Consulting
Ice – a significant safety risk
• Falling ice fatality potential
• 40-60 J: Serious injuries to forehead
• >80 J: Serious injury to body
• Impact energy depends on ice density, mass
and velocity. Impact of 40 J corresponds to
• 200 g of ice falling from 30-50 m
• 500 g of ice falling from 5-6 m
• Special competence is needed to understand
ice build up and shedding
• Damage potential depends on surroundings
Source: TNO Greenbook, CPR 16E, TNO ,1992
Example of accumulated ice at Tryvann communication mast, Oslo, 2014.
©Lloyd’s Register Consulting
Current standard for safety distances is too simple
• Commonly used safety distance rule for icefall
from an operational wind turbine
Safety distance = 1,5 * (H+D)
where
H = hub height of wind turbine
D = rotor diameter
• Our simulations and observations have shown
that the actual safety distance may be both
longer and shorter
Source: IEA Wind 2012, Kjeller Vindteknikk
Ice chunk of around 1 kg, observed at Norwegian wind farm.
©Lloyd’s Register Consulting
Precise mapping of ice risk – site specific approach
Metrological
study
• Probability of ice in
construction
• Estimated size and
weight distribution of
falling ice
Risk
assessment
• Site risk for
personnel operating
the facility and third
parties
• Individual risk for
different exposures,
e.g. pedestrians and
vehicle passengers
Acceptance
criteria
• Proposed criteria for
different safety zones
• Based on Norwegian
Directorate for Civil
Protection (DSB)
guidelines
• Final, site specific
criteria determined by
installation owner
(or by law where
applicable)
Risk reducing
measures
• Recommendations
for risk reducing
measures
• Meteorological
forecasting of ice
throw probability
©Lloyd’s Register Consulting
Probability distribution of falling ice used to map risk of fatality
Falling ice
• Calculated
distribution of falling
ice per square meter
• Estimated energy per
ice cube
Protection
• Tunnels etc. may
provide 100%
protection
• Car: 10% risk of ice
hitting wind screen,
140 J required to
penetrate windscreen
Fatality criteria
• 10% risk of person
being hit (covers area
of ~20cm x 50cm)
per square meter
• Potentially fatal if
energy > 40 J
Risk of fatality
• Map of annual
probability for loss of
life (PLL) due to
falling ice from facility
©Lloyd’s Register Consulting
Suggested acceptance criteria for third person
• Key principle: Facility should not
increase risk to public significantly
compared to daily risk in society
• Acceptance criteria are given as
annual probability for loss of life
(PLL) caused by the facility
• Exposure time is factored into the
acceptance criteria
• Based on Norwegian Directorate for
Civil Protection (DSB) guidelines
• Higher risk may be accepted for
personnel operating the facility, given
sufficient knowledge and routines to
handle the risk
Outside outer zone:
Schools,
kindergartens,
shopping malls,
hospitals, etc.
Facility
Inner zone:
Ski tracks,
hiking areas
Middle zone:
Public roads,
industrial sites,
scattered
houses
Outer zone:
Houses,
cafés, shops,
etc
10-5
10-6
10-7
10-4
©Lloyd’s Register Consulting
Risk reducing measures
• Ice fall risk is typically concentrated to a few, short
periods per year
• Meteorological forecasting
• Ice sensors
• Risk reducing measures for third party
 Clearly visible warning signs
 Fencing around area, locked gates
 Limit public activities
 Re-routing of footpath, ski tracks etc.
• Risk reducing measures for operating personnel
 Protective grids, roofs or tunnels
 Personal protective equipment (PPE)
Warning system at Tryvann communication mast, Oslo, 2015.
©Lloyd’s Register Consulting
Benefits from our approach
Planning
• Ensure safety by design
• Optimize installation footprint
Consent
• Increased certainty and understanding of risk level
• Solid documentation of the impact on the surroundings
Operation
• Ensure a safe working environment
• Minimize negative effects on third parties
Project
developers
Installation
owners
Operators
©Lloyd’s Register Consulting
Explore our services
• Risk assessments and consequence modelling
• Recommended safety zones
• Recommendations of risk reducing measures
• Meteorological simulations
• Ice forecasting and warning systems
• Human factors and safe behaviour studies
http://www.lr.org/consulting
www.vindteknikk.no
©Lloyd’s Register Consulting
References
1. Bredesen, R.E., Harstveit, K., Refsum, H.: IceRisk: "Assessment of risks associated with ice throw and
ice fall.", Winterwind 2014.
2. Bredesen, R.E.: Antennemast Tryvann, Oslo kommune – IceRisk - Beregninger av isnedfall med
validering. KVT Report, KVT/KH/2013/R079, Revisjon 15.5.2014, Kjeller Vindteknikk, 2014.
3. Refsum, H.A.: "Risikoanalyse – Antennemast Tryvann – Vurdering av risiko tilknyttet isnedfall",
104282/R1a, Lloyd's Register Consulting, 2014.
4. Bredesen, R.E. og Harstveit, K.: "Raskiftet, kommunene Åmot og Trysil, Hedmark – Konsekvenser av
atmosfærisk ising på ferdsel", KVT/REB/2013/R047, Kjeller Vindteknikk AS, 2013.
5. Refsum, H.A.: "Risikoanalyse – Iskast fra Raskiftet vindkraftverk",
104046/R1, Scandpower AS, 2013.
6. DSB Temaveileder ”Sikkerheten rundt anlegg som håndterer brannfarlige, reaksjonsfarlige, trykksatte
og eksplosjonsfarlige stoffer: Kriterier for akseptabel risiko”, Mai 2013.
7. Bredesen, R.E.: Antennemast Tryvann, Oslo kommune – IceRisk - Beregninger av isnedfall på bilvei.
KVT Report, KVT/REB/2014/R071, Kjeller Vindteknikk, 2014
8. Kjørri, M.: "Vurdering av risiko for bilister på Tryvannsveien i forbindelse med isnedfall fra antennemast
Tryvann", 105226/R1, Lloyd's Register Consulting, 2014.
©Lloyd’s Register Consulting
Recent example of results from Norwegian wind farm
Lloyd’s Register and variants of it are trading names of Lloyd’s Register Group Limited, its subsidiaries and affiliates.
Copyright © Lloyd’s Register Consulting. 2014. A member of the Lloyd’s Register group.
Working together
for a safer world
Helge Ausland Refsum
Principal Consultant
Norway / Kjeller
T +47 95 04 90 85
E helge.refsum@lr.org
Lloyd’s Register Consulting
http://www.lr.org/consulting
Rolv Erlend Bredesen
Advisor
Norway / Kjeller
T + 47 90 12 97 89
E rolv.bredesen@vindteknikk.no
Kjeller Vindteknikk AS
www.vindteknikk.no

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Methods for evaluating risk caused by ice throw

  • 1. Working together for a safer world Methods for evaluating risk caused by ice throw from wind turbines Helge Ausland Refsum, Lloyd's Register Consulting Rolv Erlend Bredesen, Kjeller Vindteknikk Winterwind 2015, Piteå, Sweden
  • 2. ©Lloyd’s Register Consulting Ice – a significant safety risk • Falling ice fatality potential • 40-60 J: Serious injuries to forehead • >80 J: Serious injury to body • Impact energy depends on ice density, mass and velocity. Impact of 40 J corresponds to • 200 g of ice falling from 30-50 m • 500 g of ice falling from 5-6 m • Special competence is needed to understand ice build up and shedding • Damage potential depends on surroundings Source: TNO Greenbook, CPR 16E, TNO ,1992 Example of accumulated ice at Tryvann communication mast, Oslo, 2014.
  • 3. ©Lloyd’s Register Consulting Current standard for safety distances is too simple • Commonly used safety distance rule for icefall from an operational wind turbine Safety distance = 1,5 * (H+D) where H = hub height of wind turbine D = rotor diameter • Our simulations and observations have shown that the actual safety distance may be both longer and shorter Source: IEA Wind 2012, Kjeller Vindteknikk Ice chunk of around 1 kg, observed at Norwegian wind farm.
  • 4. ©Lloyd’s Register Consulting Precise mapping of ice risk – site specific approach Metrological study • Probability of ice in construction • Estimated size and weight distribution of falling ice Risk assessment • Site risk for personnel operating the facility and third parties • Individual risk for different exposures, e.g. pedestrians and vehicle passengers Acceptance criteria • Proposed criteria for different safety zones • Based on Norwegian Directorate for Civil Protection (DSB) guidelines • Final, site specific criteria determined by installation owner (or by law where applicable) Risk reducing measures • Recommendations for risk reducing measures • Meteorological forecasting of ice throw probability
  • 5. ©Lloyd’s Register Consulting Probability distribution of falling ice used to map risk of fatality Falling ice • Calculated distribution of falling ice per square meter • Estimated energy per ice cube Protection • Tunnels etc. may provide 100% protection • Car: 10% risk of ice hitting wind screen, 140 J required to penetrate windscreen Fatality criteria • 10% risk of person being hit (covers area of ~20cm x 50cm) per square meter • Potentially fatal if energy > 40 J Risk of fatality • Map of annual probability for loss of life (PLL) due to falling ice from facility
  • 6. ©Lloyd’s Register Consulting Suggested acceptance criteria for third person • Key principle: Facility should not increase risk to public significantly compared to daily risk in society • Acceptance criteria are given as annual probability for loss of life (PLL) caused by the facility • Exposure time is factored into the acceptance criteria • Based on Norwegian Directorate for Civil Protection (DSB) guidelines • Higher risk may be accepted for personnel operating the facility, given sufficient knowledge and routines to handle the risk Outside outer zone: Schools, kindergartens, shopping malls, hospitals, etc. Facility Inner zone: Ski tracks, hiking areas Middle zone: Public roads, industrial sites, scattered houses Outer zone: Houses, cafés, shops, etc 10-5 10-6 10-7 10-4
  • 7. ©Lloyd’s Register Consulting Risk reducing measures • Ice fall risk is typically concentrated to a few, short periods per year • Meteorological forecasting • Ice sensors • Risk reducing measures for third party  Clearly visible warning signs  Fencing around area, locked gates  Limit public activities  Re-routing of footpath, ski tracks etc. • Risk reducing measures for operating personnel  Protective grids, roofs or tunnels  Personal protective equipment (PPE) Warning system at Tryvann communication mast, Oslo, 2015.
  • 8. ©Lloyd’s Register Consulting Benefits from our approach Planning • Ensure safety by design • Optimize installation footprint Consent • Increased certainty and understanding of risk level • Solid documentation of the impact on the surroundings Operation • Ensure a safe working environment • Minimize negative effects on third parties Project developers Installation owners Operators
  • 9. ©Lloyd’s Register Consulting Explore our services • Risk assessments and consequence modelling • Recommended safety zones • Recommendations of risk reducing measures • Meteorological simulations • Ice forecasting and warning systems • Human factors and safe behaviour studies http://www.lr.org/consulting www.vindteknikk.no
  • 10. ©Lloyd’s Register Consulting References 1. Bredesen, R.E., Harstveit, K., Refsum, H.: IceRisk: "Assessment of risks associated with ice throw and ice fall.", Winterwind 2014. 2. Bredesen, R.E.: Antennemast Tryvann, Oslo kommune – IceRisk - Beregninger av isnedfall med validering. KVT Report, KVT/KH/2013/R079, Revisjon 15.5.2014, Kjeller Vindteknikk, 2014. 3. Refsum, H.A.: "Risikoanalyse – Antennemast Tryvann – Vurdering av risiko tilknyttet isnedfall", 104282/R1a, Lloyd's Register Consulting, 2014. 4. Bredesen, R.E. og Harstveit, K.: "Raskiftet, kommunene Åmot og Trysil, Hedmark – Konsekvenser av atmosfærisk ising på ferdsel", KVT/REB/2013/R047, Kjeller Vindteknikk AS, 2013. 5. Refsum, H.A.: "Risikoanalyse – Iskast fra Raskiftet vindkraftverk", 104046/R1, Scandpower AS, 2013. 6. DSB Temaveileder ”Sikkerheten rundt anlegg som håndterer brannfarlige, reaksjonsfarlige, trykksatte og eksplosjonsfarlige stoffer: Kriterier for akseptabel risiko”, Mai 2013. 7. Bredesen, R.E.: Antennemast Tryvann, Oslo kommune – IceRisk - Beregninger av isnedfall på bilvei. KVT Report, KVT/REB/2014/R071, Kjeller Vindteknikk, 2014 8. Kjørri, M.: "Vurdering av risiko for bilister på Tryvannsveien i forbindelse med isnedfall fra antennemast Tryvann", 105226/R1, Lloyd's Register Consulting, 2014.
  • 11. ©Lloyd’s Register Consulting Recent example of results from Norwegian wind farm
  • 12. Lloyd’s Register and variants of it are trading names of Lloyd’s Register Group Limited, its subsidiaries and affiliates. Copyright © Lloyd’s Register Consulting. 2014. A member of the Lloyd’s Register group. Working together for a safer world Helge Ausland Refsum Principal Consultant Norway / Kjeller T +47 95 04 90 85 E helge.refsum@lr.org Lloyd’s Register Consulting http://www.lr.org/consulting Rolv Erlend Bredesen Advisor Norway / Kjeller T + 47 90 12 97 89 E rolv.bredesen@vindteknikk.no Kjeller Vindteknikk AS www.vindteknikk.no