1. Gregory Holyk, Langer Research Associates
Seth Brohinsky, Abt-SRBI
Dean Williams, Abt-SRBI
Damla Ergun, Langer Research Associates
Gary Langer, Langer Research Associates
Julie Phelan, Langer Research Associates
Polling in the Midst of a Natural Disaster:
The ABC News/Washington Post 2012
Election Tracking Poll and Hurricane Sandy

2. What Could Possibly Go Wrong?
 Sandy made landfall on the NY/NJ coast the night of Oct. 29,
2012 (night 12 of our tracking poll in the presidential election)
 Presented an unprecedented situation in our experience
 Intense internal discussion:
 Empirical question: Can we continue to obtain a sufficiently reliable
national sample?
 Ethical question: Should we continue to call affected areas in the
aftermath of a natural disaster?
 If we proceed, how will we diagnose our sample is acceptable and
determine whether or not to proceed?
2

3. How We Proceeded
 Some said the storm made it impossible to continue sampling
and obtain a representative national estimate.
 Our approach: Test it and see.
 Steps we implemented:
 Changed our intro language in the affected areas to be sensitive
to the situation:
“…. We know it’s a difficult time in much of the Northeast because
of the storm damage. But we’re doing an opinion poll on interesting
subjects in the news and would appreciate your participating. Would
that be OK?”
 Evaluate sample dispositions.
 Compare each night’s results (demographics, attitudes) vs. their
pre-Sandy averages and ranges.
3

4. Field Procedures and Affected Areas
 On the night the storm hit the final NE interview was completed
at 7:56 p.m. – before landfall.
 Call centers (Ft. Myers, FL and Huntington, WV) not affected.
 Received hourly status updates from field site staff to project
management team during every interviewing shift.
 Project managers debriefed nightly by field staff.
 Northeast region = 18% of the country’s LVs.
 Census divisions:
 Middle Atlantic (NJ, NY, PA) = 13%
 New England (CT, ME, MA, NH, RI, VT) = 5%
 South Atlantic (DE, DC, FL, GA, MD, NC, SC, VA, WV) = 20%
 Hardest hit states (NY and NJ) = 8%
 But impact was coastal, not statewide
4

5. Night-by-night Diagnosis

6. NE Data; Post-Sandy W12 n=57
Pre-Sandy Post-Sandy
Min. Max. Avg. Wave 12
Obama 50% 65% 57% 69%
Romney 33% 46% 41% 31%
Democrat 31% 49% 40% 43%
Republican 16% 30% 21% 20%
Independent 21% 43% 35% 30%
Leaned Dem. 48% 64% 56% 63%
Leaned Rep. 26% 45% 36% 31%
Liberal 18% 34% 26% 46%
Moderate 25% 61% 42% 33%
Conservative 19% 40% 30% 19%
Men 37% 57% 47% 41%
Women 43% 63% 53% 59%
6

7. NE Data; Post-Sandy W13 n=55
Pre-Sandy Post-Sandy
Min. Max. Avg. Wave 12 Wave 13
Obama 50% 65% 57% 69% 60%
Romney 33% 46% 41% 31% 35%
Democrat 31% 49% 40% 43% 34%
Republican 16% 30% 21% 20% 16%
Independent 21% 43% 35% 30% 39%
Leaned Dem. 48% 64% 56% 63% 60%
Leaned Rep. 26% 45% 36% 31% 29%
Liberal 18% 34% 26% 46% 24%
Moderate 25% 61% 42% 33% 46%
Conservative 19% 40% 30% 19% 27%
Men 37% 57% 47% 41% 41%
Women 43% 63% 53% 59% 59%
7

8. NE Data; Post-Sandy W14 n=52
Pre-Sandy Post-Sandy
Min. Max. Avg. Wave 12 Wave 13 Wave 14
Obama 50% 65% 57% 69% 60% 66%
Romney 33% 46% 41% 31% 35% 28%
Democrat 31% 49% 40% 43% 34% 41%
Republican 16% 30% 21% 20% 16% 25%
Independent 21% 43% 35% 30% 39% 23%
Leaned Dem. 48% 64% 56% 63% 60% 59%
Leaned Rep. 26% 45% 36% 31% 29% 37%
Liberal 18% 34% 26% 46% 24% 38%
Moderate 25% 61% 42% 33% 46% 35%
Conservative 19% 40% 30% 19% 27% 27%
Men 37% 57% 47% 41% 41% 32%
Women 43% 63% 53% 59% 59% 68%
8

9. NE Data; Post-Sandy W15 n=94
Pre-Sandy Post-Sandy
Min. Max. Avg. Wave 12 Wave 13 Wave 14 Wave 15
Obama 50% 65% 57% 69% 60% 66% 59%
Romney 33% 46% 41% 31% 35% 28% 35%
Democrat 31% 49% 40% 43% 34% 41% 38%
Republican 16% 30% 21% 20% 16% 25% 23%
Independent 21% 43% 35% 30% 39% 23% 34%
Leaned Dem. 48% 64% 56% 63% 60% 59% 52%
Leaned Rep. 26% 45% 36% 31% 29% 37% 35%
Liberal 18% 34% 26% 46% 24% 38% 27%
Moderate 25% 61% 42% 33% 46% 35% 38%
Conservative 19% 40% 30% 19% 27% 27% 24%
Men 37% 57% 47% 41% 41% 32% 35%
Women 43% 63% 53% 59% 59% 68% 65%
9

10. NE Data, Overall Pre- vs. Post-Sandy Comparison
Pre-Sandy (n=630) Post-Sandy (n=580)
Min. Max. Avg. Avg. Diff. Nights out of range
Obama 50% 65% 57% 59% +2 pts 3
Romney 33% 46% 41% 37% -4 3
Democrat 31% 49% 40% 41% +1 1
Republican 16% 30% 21% 20% -1 0
Independent 21% 43% 35% 32% -3 0
Leaned Dem. 48% 64% 56% 58% +2 0
Leaned Rep. 26% 45% 36% 33% -3 0
Liberal 18% 34% 26% 29% +3 2
Moderate 25% 61% 42% 40% -2 0
Conservative 19% 40% 30% 27% -3 0
Men 37% 57% 47% 41% -6 2
Women 43% 63% 53% 59% +6 2
10

11. NE Data; Post-Sandy W12 n=57
Pre-Sandy Post-Sandy
Min. Max. Avg. Wave 12
White 66% 89% 80% 73%
Black 0% 14% 7% 6%
Hispanic 0% 17% 8% 12%
18-29 0% 22% 10% 15%
30-39 0% 25% 16% 5%
40-49 9% 27% 15% 20%
50-64 26% 43% 36% 39%
65+ 13% 30% 23% 21%
HS or less 26% 43% 34% 34%
Some
college
10% 24% 19% 20%
College deg. 13% 37% 26% 26%
Post-grad 14% 29% 22% 20%
11

12. NE Data; Post-Sandy W13 n=55
Pre-Sandy Post-Sandy
Min. Max. Avg. Wave 12 Wave 13
White 66% 89% 80% 73% 69%
Black 0% 14% 7% 6% 20%
Hispanic 0% 17% 8% 12% 4%
18-29 0% 22% 10% 15% 19%
30-39 0% 25% 16% 5% 7%
40-49 9% 27% 15% 20% 28%
50-64 26% 43% 36% 39% 26%
65+ 13% 30% 23% 21% 20%
HS or less 26% 43% 34% 34% 38%
Some college 10% 24% 19% 20% 20%
College deg. 13% 37% 26% 26% 28%
Post-grad 14% 29% 22% 20% 14%
12

13. NE Data; Post-Sandy W14 n=52
Pre-Sandy Post-Sandy
Min. Max. Avg. Wave 12 Wave 13 Wave 14
White 66% 89% 80% 73% 69% 70%
Black 0% 14% 7% 6% 20% 11%
Hispanic 0% 17% 8% 12% 4% 16%
18-29 0% 22% 10% 15% 19% 6%
30-39 0% 25% 16% 5% 7% 28%
40-49 9% 27% 15% 20% 28% 25%
50-64 26% 43% 36% 39% 26% 24%
65+ 13% 30% 23% 21% 20% 17%
HS or less 26% 43% 34% 34% 38% 21%
Some college 10% 24% 19% 20% 20% 28%
College deg. 13% 37% 26% 26% 28% 33%
Post-grad 14% 29% 22% 20% 14% 14%
13

14. NE Data; Post-Sandy W15 n=94
Pre-Sandy Post-Sandy
Min. Max. Avg. Wave 12 Wave 13 Wave 14 Wave 15
White 66% 89% 80% 73% 69% 70% 80%
Black 0% 14% 7% 6% 20% 11% 11%
Hispanic 0% 17% 8% 12% 4% 16% 4%
18-29 0% 22% 10% 15% 19% 6% 8%
30-39 0% 25% 16% 5% 7% 28% 23%
40-49 9% 27% 15% 20% 28% 25% 10%
50-64 26% 43% 36% 39% 26% 24% 34%
65+ 13% 30% 23% 21% 20% 17% 25%
HS or less 26% 43% 34% 34% 38% 21% 33%
Some college 10% 24% 19% 20% 20% 28% 18%
College deg. 13% 37% 26% 26% 28% 33% 24%
Post-grad 14% 29% 22% 20% 14% 14% 25%
14

15. NE Data, Overall Pre- vs. Post-Sandy Comparison
Pre-Sandy (n=630) Post-Sandy (n=580)
Min. Max. Avg. Avg. Diff. Nights out of range
White 66% 89% 80% 72% -8 pts 3
Black 0% 14% 7% 11% +4 1
Hispanic 0% 17% 8% 9% +1 1
18-29 0% 22% 10% 11% +1 0
30-39 0% 25% 16% 16% 0 1
40-49 9% 27% 15% 21% +6 1
50-64 26% 43% 36% 31% -5 0
65+ 13% 30% 23% 21% -2 0
HS or less 26% 43% 34% 33% -1 1
Some college 10% 24% 19% 24% +5 3
College deg. 13% 37% 26% 23% -3 1
Post-grad 14% 29% 22% 19% -3 0
15

16. NE Data; Post-Sandy W12 n=57
Pre-Sandy Post-Sandy
Min. Max. Avg. Wave 12
<$50K 26% 50% 39% 39%
$50-100K 20% 46% 31% 39%
$100K+ 23% 44% 30% 21%
Protestant 19% 50% 32% 21%
Catholic 26% 52% 38% 38%
Other non-Christ. 3% 24% 10% 14%
None 3% 25% 13% 19%
Contact - Obama 16% 40% 27% 41%
Contact - Romney 15% 26% 19% 27%
‘08 vote - Obama 57% 83% 65% 77%
‘08 vote - McCain 17% 42% 33% 23%
Folo - very closely 43% 76% 62% 69%
Folo - smwt closely 21% 55% 34% 21%
16

17. NE Data; Post-Sandy W13 n=55
Pre-Sandy Post-Sandy
Min. Max. Avg. Wave 12 Wave 13
<$50K 26% 50% 39% 39% 42%
$50-100K 20% 46% 31% 39% 38%
$100K+ 23% 44% 30% 21% 20%
Protestant 19% 50% 32% 21% 38%
Catholic 26% 52% 38% 38% 27%
Other non-Christ. 3% 24% 10% 14% 10%
None 3% 25% 13% 19% 21%
Contact - Obama 16% 40% 27% 41% 35%
Contact - Romney 15% 26% 19% 27% 20%
‘08 vote - Obama 57% 83% 65% 77% 70%
‘08 vote - McCain 17% 42% 33% 23% 26%
Folo - very closely 43% 76% 62% 69% 60%
Folo - smwt closely 21% 55% 34% 21% 31%
17

18. NE Data; Post-Sandy W14 n=52
Pre-Sandy Post-Sandy
Min. Max. Avg. Wave 12 Wave 13 Wave 14
<$50K 26% 50% 39% 39% 42% 33%
$50-100K 20% 46% 31% 39% 38% 34%
$100K+ 23% 44% 30% 21% 20% 32%
Protestant 19% 50% 32% 21% 38% 29%
Catholic 26% 52% 38% 38% 27% 39%
Other non-Christ. 3% 24% 10% 14% 10% 11%
None 3% 25% 13% 19% 21% 17%
Contact - Obama 16% 40% 27% 41% 35% 21%
Contact - Romney 15% 26% 19% 27% 20% 9%
‘08 vote - Obama 57% 83% 65% 77% 70% 71%
‘08 vote - McCain 17% 42% 33% 23% 26% 27%
Folo - very closely 43% 76% 62% 69% 60% 57%
Folo - smwt closely 21% 55% 34% 21% 31% 37%
18

19. NE Data; Post-Sandy W15 n=94
Pre-Sandy Post-Sandy
Min. Max. Avg. Wave 12 Wave 13 Wave 14 Wave 15
<$50K 26% 50% 39% 39% 42% 33% 42%
$50-100K 20% 46% 31% 39% 38% 34% 23%
$100K+ 23% 44% 30% 21% 20% 32% 35%
Protestant 19% 50% 32% 21% 38% 29% 27%
Catholic 26% 52% 38% 38% 27% 39% 30%
Other non-Christ. 3% 24% 10% 14% 10% 11% 13%
None 3% 25% 13% 19% 21% 17% 20%
Contact - Obama 16% 40% 27% 41% 35% 21% 31%
Contact - Romney 15% 26% 19% 27% 20% 9% 20%
‘08 vote - Obama 57% 83% 65% 77% 70% 71% 64%
‘08 vote - McCain 17% 42% 33% 23% 26% 27% 31%
Folo - very closely 43% 76% 62% 69% 60% 57% 54%
Folo - smwt closely 21% 55% 34% 21% 31% 37% 36%
19

20. NE Data, Overall Pre- vs. Post-Sandy Comparison
Pre-Sandy (n=630) Post-Sandy (n=580)
Min. Max. Avg. Avg. Diff. Nights out of range
<$50K 26% 50% 39% 39% 0 pts 0
$50-100K 20% 46% 31% 34% +3 0
$100K+ 23% 44% 30% 27% -3 2
Protestant 19% 50% 32% 29% -3 0
Catholic 26% 52% 38% 36% -2 0
Other non-Christ. 3% 24% 10% 10% 0 0
None 3% 25% 13% 18% +5 0
Contact - Obama 16% 40% 27% 31% +4 1
Contact - Romney 15% 26% 19% 22% +3 3
‘08 vote - Obama 57% 83% 65% 68% +3 0
‘08 vote - McCain 17% 42% 33% 29% -4 0
Folo - very closely 43% 76% 62% 60% -2 1
Folo - smwt closely 21% 55% 34% 31% -3 3
20

21. A National “Sandy bump” for Obama?
50%50%
47%47%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Obama Romney
Obama vs. Romney, 2012
Among all likely voters
ABC News/Washington Post polls
Hurricane Sandy
10/21 and later: four-day rolling average
21

22. Sample Overview

23. Sample Facts
 Field Period: Oct. 18-Nov. 4, 2012
 Non-overlapping RDD and CPO design
 Max of 6 call attempts per record
 Mix of fresh and live sample released every day
 Nights 1-14: 440 total x’s per night
 Nights 15-18: 800 total x’s per night
 LL sample:
 66,414 unique numbers dialed
 224,922 call attempts made to complete n=7,874 interviews
 Cell sample:
 22,750 unique numbers dialed
 70,665 call attempts made to complete n=1,193 interviews
 All respondents were cell-phone only
 All phone numbers were dialed manually
23

24. Landline Sample

25. Landline Sample - Overview
 Landline Sample Controlled by Census Division
 Nine total census divisions nationwide.
Sandy’s Storm
Path
25

26. Landline Sample -
Post-Sandy: Numbers Dialed / Complete
Pre-Sandy Post-Sandy
Min. Max. Avg. Wave 12 Wave 13 Wave 14 Wave 15
Total 20.7 37.1 30.5 26.7 30.1 31.8 21.8
Censdiv 1 21.8 58.9 35.4 22.1 33.2 19.4 30.8
Censdiv 2 20.8 41.5 30.6 18.1 48.7 44.2 20.1
Censdiv 3 18.2 39.1 29.2 30.8 28.2 29.9 19.9
Censdiv 4 16.1 48.8 27.9 22.1 18.7 27.3 19.2
Censdiv 5 20.0 43.6 32.1 19.7 31.7 28.9 22.6
Censdiv 6 19.0 39.9 27.2 17.9 23.4 32.0 14.1
Censdiv 7 26.1 49.7 34.4 24.0 33.7 38.1 21.0
Censdiv 8 19.1 37.6 27.1 42.8 19.9 34.3 28.1
Censdiv 9 16.3 51.1 29.4 39.5 22.9 26.5 23.1
26

27. 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Night
1
Night
2
Night
3
Night
4
Night
5
Night
6
Night
7
Night
8
Night
9
Night
10
Night
11
Night
12
Night
13
Night
14
Night
15
Night
16
Night
17
Night
18
Numbers Dialed per Completed Interview
Landline Sample
Burn Rate
 No significant increase in total #’s dialed / complete:
 Burn rate for the entire tracking poll: 28.6
 Burn rate on night 13: 30.1
Hurricane Sandy
27

28. 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Night
1
Night
2
Night
3
Night
4
Night
5
Night
6
Night
7
Night
8
Night
9
Night
10
Night
11
Night
12
Night
13
Night
14
Night
15
Night
16
Night
17
Night
18
Number of Dials per Completed Interview
by Census Division
Censdiv 1
Censdiv 2
Censdiv 3
Censdiv 4
Censdiv 5
Censdiv 6
Censdiv 7
Censdiv 8
Censdiv 9
Landline Sample – By Census Division
Hurricane Sandy
28

29. Landline Sample -
Post-Sandy; Percent Busy
Pre-Sandy Post-Sandy
Min. Max. Avg. Wave 12 Wave 13 Wave 14 Wave 15
Total 0.2% 3.8% 2.2% 4.3% 9.4% 5.3% 3.9%
Censdiv 1 0% 5.0% 1.7% 5.0% 4.3% 6.1% 2.4%
Censdiv 2 0% 8.0% 3.2% 6.7% 27.2% 15.7% 13.3%
Censdiv 3 0% 2.2% 1.3% 4.2% 5.2% 2.9% 2.5%
Censdiv 4 .2% 10.8% 3.2% 4.2% 4.2% 2.3% 2.2%
Censdiv 5 .1% 4.2% 2.2% 6.8% 6.3% 4.5% 3.1%
Censdiv 6 0% 6.4% 2.1% 5.6% 2.9% 2.4% 1.9%
Censdiv 7 .4% 6.9% 3.0% 3.9% 2.4% 2.7% 2.0%
Censdiv 8 0% 4.0% 1.6% 3.3% 5.4% 1.1% 3.1%
Censdiv 9 0% 3.5% 1.6% 2.2% 4.1% 1.6% 2.6%
29

30. Landline Sample Cont’d
 Percentage of busy numbers by night:
 Average percentage of busy numbers: 3.2% of total dialed
 Night 12: 4.3%; night 13: 9.4%; night 14: 5.3%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Night
1
Night
2
Night
3
Night
4
Night
5
Night
6
Night
7
Night
8
Night
9
Night
10
Night
11
Night
12
Night
13
Night
14
Night
15
Night
16
Night
17
Night
18
Busy Numbers as % of Total Sample
Hurricane Sandy
30

31. Landline Sample – By Census Division
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Night
1
Night
2
Night
3
Night
4
Night
5
Night
6
Night
7
Night
8
Night
9
Night
10
Night
11
Night
12
Night
13
Night
14
Night
15
Night
16
Night
17
Night
18
Busy as a Percentage of Total Numbers
Dialed by Census Division
Censdiv 1 Censdiv 2 Censdiv 3
Censdiv 4 Censdiv 5 Censdiv 6
Censdiv 7 Censdiv 8 Censdiv 9
Hurricane Sandy
31

32. Pre-Sandy Busy Dispositions
Night 11 Night 12
32

33. Night 13 Busy Dispositions
33

34. Post-Sandy Busy Dispositions
Night 14 Night 15
34

35. Landline Sample – Respondent Participation
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Night
1
Night
2
Night
3
Night
4
Night
5
Night
6
Night
7
Night
8
Night
9
Night
10
Night
11
Night
12
Night
13
Night
14
Night
15
Night
16
Night
17
Night
18
Respondent Participation by Night
Census Division 2 Total
Hurricane Sandy
35

36. Cell Phone Sample

37. Cell Phone vs. Landline Samples
 Main differences:
 LL sample uses autodialer, cell phone does not.
 Cell sample dispositions are manually entered by a live
interviewer based on his/her interpretation of the outcome.
 The following disposition codes were used to determine
“busy” equivalent in cell sample:
 Answering machine/voicemail – unknown eligibility
 Busy
 Incomplete call/line problems (temporary)
 No answer
 Not In service/disconnected
37

38. Cell Phone Sample -
Post-Sandy Burn Rate
Pre-Sandy Post-Sandy
Min. Max. Avg. Wave 12 Wave 13 Wave 14 Wave 15
Total 26.1 57.5 38.8 39.1 36.1 34.4 24.2
Northeast 15.7 61.1 39.7 64.4 29.5 87.8 27.5
Midwest 18.5 72.0 36.7 33.1 39.5 24.2 34.6
South 23.5 64.6 41.6 38.8 27.0 26.9 16.4
West 16.6 62.6 35.4 33.6 51.6 30.7 25.8
38

39. Cell Phone Sample
 No significant increase in total #s dialed / complete:
 Burn rate for the entire tracking poll: 36:1, same as night 13
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Night 1Night 2Night 3Night 4Night 5Night 6Night 7Night 8Night 9Night 10Night 11Night 12Night 13Night 14Night 15Night 16Night 17Night 18
Total Numbers Dialed per Complete
Hurricane Sandy
39

40. Cell Phone Sample – By Region
 Total #’s dialed / complete: cell average 36:1
 Night 13: no outliers
 Night 14: NE jumps to highest burn rate of any region 88:1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Night 1Night 2Night 3Night 4Night 5Night 6Night 7Night 8Night 9Night 10Night 11Night 12Night 13Night 14Night 15Night 16Night 17Night 18
Numbers Dialed per Complete by Region
Northwest
Midwest
South
West
Hurricane Sandy
40

41. Cell Phone Sample -
Post-Sandy; Percent Busy
Pre-Sandy Post-Sandy
Min. Max. Avg. Wave 12 Wave 13 Wave 14 Wave 15
Total 76% 85% 82% 81% 81% 78% 79%
Northeast 69% 85% 78% 80% 85% 80% 70%
Midwest 71% 84% 81% 82% 80% 77% 83%
South 78% 85% 82% 84% 80% 75% 75%
West 70% 87% 80% 80% 83% 74% 75%
41

42. Cell Phone Sample
 Percentage of NIS/VM/busy numbers by night:
 Average percentage of NIS/VM/busy: 81% of total dialed
 Consistent % across all nights
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
Night
1
Night
2
Night
3
Night
4
Night
5
Night
6
Night
7
Night
8
Night
9
Night
10
Night
11
Night
12
Night
13
Night
14
Night
15
Night
16
Night
17
Night
18
NIS/VM/Busy as a % of Total Dialed
Hurricane Sandy
42

43. Cell Phone – By Region
 Increase in NIS/VM/busy percentage on night 14
 Night 14: NE hits 85% (749 NIS/VM/busy is tops for any night)
 Night 13: 237 and 80% of total
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
Night
1
Night
2
Night
3
Night
4
Night
5
Night
6
Night
7
Night
8
Night
9
Night
10
Night
11
Night
12
Night
13
Night
14
Night
15
Night
16
Night
17
Night
18
Percent of #'s NIS/unknown
Northwest
Midwest
South
WestHurricane Sandy
43

44. Cell Phone Sample – Participation Analysis
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Night
1
Night
2
Night
3
Night
4
Night
5
Night
6
Night
7
Night
8
Night
9
Night
10
Night
11
Night
12
Night
13
Night
14
Night
15
Night
16
Night
17
Night
18
Cell Phone Respondent Participation
Total Northeast
Hurricane Sandy
44

45. Conclusions
 Post-Sandy dialings-to-completes in the affected areas were
within the normal range.
 Demographic differences were generally within range.
 No evidence of a “Sandy bump” in the NE or nationally.
 Continuing tracking provided an important source of accurate
ongoing information about the campaign that otherwise
would have been absent.
45