Sunday Morning - Effectuation & pitch

FOUNDERS CIRCLE
• Invite only group of entrepreneurs
• Smart entrepreneurs sharing great ideas
• Structured best-practice programme
• Community of ambitious entrepreneurs
• Weekly meetup

Source: Sarasarvathy (2011)
3 40 start upsto
$200 million to $6 billion
1IPO

Causal
Thinking
Effectual
Thinking

People
Knowledge
Resources
Market
GapPlan
Market
Research
CAUSAL THINKING

Opportunities
Knowledge
People
Resources
Outcome
Outcome
Outcome
Outcome
Outcome
Outcome
(Imaging a possible new end using a given set of means)
EFFECTUAL THINKING

Opportunities
Knowledge
People
Resources
Outcome
Outcome
Outcome
Outcome
Outcome
Outcome
Effectual Thinking
(Imaging a possible new end using a given set of means)

Gum trees
Piping
Library
books
Bicycle pump
Motivation to
help

Think a lot.
Let’s create a plan.
Start acting as soon
as you can.

WHOM DO
YOU KNOW?
WHAT RESOURCES
CAN I ACCESS?

AFFORDABLE LOSS: PROTECT THE
DOWNSIDE

RICHARD GRIFFIN
“It was the first time in business that I felt real shame,” he
says. “I couldn’t pay bills, I couldn’t pay staff, family and
friends who had invested in me and the business lost huge
amounts of money and it was all because of me. It was the
first time in my life where I just couldn’t find a way to come
up with a second plan. There was this thing that was beyond
my control that I couldn’t fix – and it just broke me.”

I’ll start cheap make sure I… cover my cost don’t have to
take huge risks…. uhm… one thing I’m sure about my
experience… never take any risk if you can help it… it is
just the opposite of what most people think about….
Entrepreneurs [E5]

Source: Omidyar (2002)
“Back when I launched eBay on Labour Day 1995, eBay wasn’t
my business – it was my hobby. I had to build a system that
was self-sustaining… …because I had a real job to go to every
morning. I was working as a software engineer from 10 to 7,
and I wanted to have a life on the weekends. So I built a
system that could keep working – catching complaints and
capturing feedback – even when Pam and I were out
mountain-biking, and the only one home was our cat.

Time
Size
‘92 – Gotcha, Wrangler Agencies
& Biotribe factory
R30 million – ‘98
100 employee – ‘97
R50 million - ‘01

Time
Size
& Biotribe factory
R50 million
Chinese Imports
R6 to R13 to dollar
- ‘01

Having lost my business so suddenly, I was now
setting up a licensing base and succeeding in
spreading my risk across a number of products,
licensees and manufacturers. We have the brands,
they have the factories. With this licensing model,
we find the best manufacturers and negotiate a
win/win partnership with them – I provide the
product ideas and brand knowledge and they
produce products they are already successful at
making, but under our brand. Together we have a
thriving business.

Time
Size
& Biotribe factory
R50 million
Chinese Imports
R6 to R13 to dollar
2 employees – ‘05
- ‘01
’04 – 20 Licenses
‘01 – Licensing model

With the benefit of hindsight, I know now that back
in 2001 the business I had built was hugely
exposed to external risks. Today, I would not
employ that many people. I would not make and
distribute so many diverse products from just one
facility. It makes far more sense to outsource
production to manufacturing and distribution
experts who have all the expertise and channels in
place. I would, and do, take forward cover on any
international forex importing and exporting we do.
I keep overheads to an absolute minimum and
maintain tight control over all financial aspects of
the business.

Do everything you can to lower the risk of failure
and protect yourself if you fail.

I always go into a deal anticipating the worst. If
you plan for the worst—if you can live with the
worst—the good will always take care of itself.

Return on
investment.
Protect the
downside.

WHOM DO
YOU KNOW?
WHAT ARE YOU
PREPARED TO LOSE?
TIME? MONEY?
REPUTATION?
WHAT RESOURCES
CAN I ACCESS?

CO-CREATION PARTNERSHIPS: CRAZY QUILT

How will we beat
the competition?
Who can we bring
along?

Larry &
Sergey
(PageRank)
Urs
(New
code)

Larry &
Sergey
(PageRank)
John Doerr
(OKR)
Urs
(New
code)

Larry &
Sergey
(PageRank)
Jim Reese
(Tight server
farm)
John Doerr
(OKR)
Urs
(New
code)

Larry &
Sergey
(PageRank)
Jim Reese
(Tight server
farm)
John Doerr
(OKR)
Yahoo
(Billion page index)
Urs
(New
code)

Larry &
Sergey
(PageRank)
Jim Reese
(Tight server
farm)
John Doerr
(OKR)
Yahoo
Urs
(New
code)
Yahoo
(Faster
crawler)

Larry &
Sergey
(PageRank)
Jim Reese
(Tight server
farm)
John Doerr
(OKR)
Yahoo
Overture
(Auction
adverts)
Urs
(New
code)
Yahoo
(Faster
crawler)

How can we beat
the competition?
Who can we partner
with?

“I want to see… kinds of
resources…
geographically… finances…
track record… people they
hire… “
“Your competition is a
secondary factor” “I order
people not to think about
competitors. Just do your
job.”

WHAT ARE YOU
PREPARED TO LOSE?
TIME? MONEY?
REPUTATION?
WHO COULD I
PARTNER WITH?
WHOM DO
YOU KNOW?
WHAT RESOURCES
CAN I ACCESS?

LEVERAGE CONTINGENCIES: LEMONADE PRINCIPLE

“Never underestimate serendipity. And
again I think that… in these types of
situations, the traditionalists, which I call
MBA from Harvard versus the
entrepreneur… the MBA from… Harvard
would confine themselves to certain
paradigms that existed before.”

Avoid surprises.
Learn and benefit
from surprises.

Bring the plan back
on track.
Redesign the plan or
get a new plan.

CONTROL VS. PREDICTION: PILOT IN THE PLANE

What should we do?
What can we do?

“If I had a budget, I could
ask specialist in the field of
education to go through
data and give me ideas”
“You can sit and analyse
these different markets
forever and ever and ever…
and they still may be
wrong.”

“just kind of sit and listen
to them telling me… what
new features they’d like”
“Ultimately, the best test
of any product is to go to
your target market and
pretend like it’s a real
business. You’ll find out
soon enough if it is or not.”

We predict the
future.
We create the
future.

EFFECTUAL CYCLE: THE SNOWBALL EFFECT

Action with means
Partnerships
Affordable loss
Leverage contingencies

Action with means
Partnerships
Affordable loss
Action with means
Partnerships
Affordable loss

Action with means
Partnerships
Affordable loss
Action with means
Partnerships
Affordable loss
Action with means
Partnerships
Affordable loss

Action with means
Partnerships
Affordable loss
Action with means
Partnerships
Affordable loss
Action with means
Partnerships
Affordable loss
Action with means
Partnerships
Affordable loss

A growing
cycle of
resources and
progress
Action with means
Partnerships
Affordable loss
Action with means
Partnerships
Affordable loss
Action with means
Partnerships
Affordable loss
Action with means
Partnerships
Affordable loss
Action with means
Partnerships
Affordable loss

Big bold visions with
a clear plan and big
rewards.
Lets work with what
we have an build as
we go.

WHOM DO
YOU KNOW?
WHAT ARE YOU
PREPARED TO LOSE?
TIME? MONEY?
REPUTATION?
WHO COULD I
PARTNER WITH?

COMPANY: OWLET BABY MONITORS
INTERVIEWS: 200
PITCHES: 240

Problem-Customer fit Evidence
What evidence do you have of your
target customers problems?
1
Who is your customer?
What problem are you solving for them?
Mum’s – 6 mths pregnant to
age 2 worried about babies
health.
Problem Interviews:
14/23 worried of babies
dying of SIDS.

Problem-Solution fit Evidence
What evidence do you have that
customers will purchase the solution?
2
What solution(s) are you offering the
customer?
Owlet: Baby monitor.
Be empowered by seeing
your babies health at a
glance $250
Pitched 4 monitors at store
with A4 ads:
16/81 would buy
477 parents inquired about
the product via email

Proven Market Size Evidence
What evidence do you have of the
market size?
How many potential customers are
there?
3
4 million babies born a year
Parents of 0 to 2 years that
want to monitor their
babies
81 parents interested in
monitors pitched and 20%
will purchase ours
Industry report
1 million purchase baby
monitors
200 million is that total
number that we predict will
buy our product
US census data

Financial Projections Evidence
What evidence do you have that your
financial projections assumptions are right?
8
What are your financial projections and
what assumptions are they based on?
3
Projections
Year 1: $500 000
Year 2: $1 000 000
Year 3: $2 000 000
We will be able to sell
everything we make in 2
months.
Evidence: Pre-sold first
batch
Assumptions
1. No. of batches produced
2. Sales projections
No. batches produced
Assumption: 2 per year
Evidence: 4 months to
produce first batch

Investment Readiness Scale / Business Model Validation
10 Update financial projections
9 Optimise customer acquisition
8
Proven feasible customer acquisition
Proven you can produce at scale
7 Proven customer satisfaction
6
Proven you can repeatably sell solution
Proven can produce solution
5 Update finanical projections
4
Proven can sell MVP
Proven you can create MVP
✓
✓
3
Problem-Solution fit
Create financial model ✓
2
Customer-problem fit
Proven Market Size
✓
✓
1 Identified target customer ✓
Where is your
business on the
investment
readiness scale?

Sunday Morning - Effectuation & pitch

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Sunday Morning - Effectuation & pitch