11. Overconfidence
Confirmation Bias
Short-term emotion & the Recency Bias
Narrow Framing
Loss Aversion
Availability Heuristic
The Law of Small Numbers & The Clustering Illusion
Correlation vs. Causation & the Fundamental Attribution
Error
COGNITIVE BIASES
@laurex
28. BETTER METHODS TO MAKE DECISIONS
The 5 Whys - Root Cause Analysis
Reality Testing / Data - MVP, A/B Tests, Landing Pages
Get some distance - collect information about “what
typically happens in a situation like ours” instead of
what you want to happen or fear will happen
Prepare to be wrong (or at least incomplete)- adopt
the opposite viewpoint to the one you have and try to
find the merits in it
Pre-mortem
Vanishing Options
@laurex
39. USER RESEARCH
Resist Confirmation Bias by asking open-ended
questions
Avoid the Availability Heuristic by talking to users
you don’t know
Mistrust a small sample size but find patterns with
just a few users
Combat Narrow Framing by using “and” instead of
“or”
Test Reality by finding out what users are doing now
@laurex
40. USER RESEARCH
Resist Confirmation Bias by asking open-ended
questions
Avoid the Availability Heuristic by talking to users
you don’t know
Mistrust a small sample size (The Law of Small
Numbers) but find patterns with just a few users
Combat Narrow Framing by using “and” instead of
“or”
Test Reality by finding out what users are doing now
@laurex
41. USER RESEARCH
Resist Confirmation Bias by asking open-ended
questions
Avoid the Availability Heuristic by talking to users
you don’t know
Mistrust a small sample size but find patterns with
just a few users
Combat Narrow Framing by using “and” instead of
“or”
Test Reality by finding out what users are doing now
@laurex
43. Test Reality by using Velocity, Throughput and Code
Quality to measure Team Capacity.
Tripwire: anonymous team polls
Avoid the Bandwagon Effect with polling
Tripwire: setting internal deadlines or milestones
@laurex
44. Test Reality by using Velocity, Throughput and Code
Quality to measure Team Capacity.
Tripwire: anonymous team polls
Avoid the Bandwagon Effect with polling
Tripwire: setting internal deadlines or milestones
@laurex
45. Test Reality by using Velocity, Throughput and Code
Quality to measure Team Capacity.
Tripwire: anonymous team polls
Avoid the Bandwagon Effect with polling
Tripwire: setting internal deadlines or milestones
@laurex
53. RESOURCES
Predictably Irrational - Dan Ariely
Thinking Fast & Slow - Daniel Kahneman
Decisive, Made to Stick- Chip & Dan Heath
Mental Models I Find Repeatedly Useful - Gabriel Weinberg
Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH)
The Four Villains of Product Management
Four steps to more Decisive product decisions
Gib Biddle on Netflix Product Strategy
@laurex