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Lean Analytics
    Use data to build a
   better business faster.




                             www.leananalyticsbook.com
  @byosko | @acroll
                                   @leananalytics
Kevin Costner is a lousy entrepreneur.




 Don’t sell what you can make.
 Make what you can sell.
The basic Lean message is
learn and adapt, fast.
A metric from the early, foolish days of the Web.
      Hits
                   Count people instead.
                   Marginally better than hits. Unless you’re displaying
  Page views
                   ad inventory, count people.
                   Is this one person visiting a hundred times, or are a
     Visits
                   hundred people visiting once? Fail.
                   This tells you nothing about what they did, why they
Unique visitors
                   stuck around, or if they left.
   Followers/      Count actions instead. Find out how many followers
  friends/likes    will do your bidding.
Time on site, or   Poor version of engagement. Lots of time spent on
  pages/visit      support pages is actually a bad sign.
                   How many recipients will act on what’s in them?
Emails collected

  Number of        Outside app stores, downloads alone don’t lead to
  downloads        lifetime value. Measure activations/active accounts.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/circasassy/7858155676/




                           it’s a
                           how you behave,
                           If it won’t change




bad
metric.
What mode of e-commerce are you?

  How many of
 your customers    Then you are in   Your customers      You are just
                                                                               Focus on
  buy a second       this mode       will buy from you       like
time in 90 days?

                                                                               Low CAC,
   1-15%           Acquisition           Once              70%                   high
                                                         of retailers          checkout




  15-30%              Hybrid             2-2.5             20%                 Increasing
                                         per year        of retailers            returns



                                                                                Loyalty,
   >30%              Loyalty              >2.5             10%                 inventory
                                         per year        of retailers          expansion
                                                             (Thanks to Kevin Hilstrom for this.)
Eric Ries’
Three engines


             Stickiness           Virality             Price


Approach    Keep people        Make people        Spend revenue
            coming back.       invite friends.   getting customers.


Math that   Get customers     How many they        Customers are
 matters    faster than you     tell, how fast    worth more than
              lose them.       they tell them.    they cost to get.
Dave McClure’s Pirate metrics


                           How do your users become aware of you?
          Acquisition
      AARRR
                             SEO, SEM, widgets, email, PR, campaigns, blogs ...


                           Do drive-by visitors subscribe, use, etc?
              Activation     Features, design, tone, compensation, affirmation ...


                           Does a one-time user become engaged?
              Retention      Notifications, alerts, reminders, emails, updates...


                           Do you make money from user activity?
               Revenue       Transactions, clicks, subscriptions, DLC, analytics...


                           Do users promote your product?
                Referral     Email, widgets, campaigns, likes, RTs, affiliates...
The five Stages of Lean Analytics

                                                   The business you’re in

                                         E-    2-sided          Mobile   User-gen
                                                         SaaS                       Media
                                      commerce market            app      content
                         Empathy
The stage you’re at




                                              One Metric
                        Stickiness

                           Virality

                         Revenue             That Matters.
                            Scale
What’s your OMTM?
                 E-            2-sided                           Mobile           User-gen
                                                  SaaS                                             Media
              commerce         market                             app              content

 Empathy                       Interviews; qualitative results; quantitative scoring; surveys


              Loyalty,       Inventory,       Engagement, Downloads,             Content,       Traffic, visits,
Stickiness    conversion     listings         churn       churn, virality        spam           returns


              CAC, shares,                    Inherent        WoM, app           Invites,       Content
   Virality   reactivation
                           SEM, sharing
                                              virality, CAC   ratings, CAC       sharing        virality, SEM


               (Money from transactions)        (Money from active users)           (Money from ad clicks)

              Transaction,   Transactions,    Upselling,      CLV,               Ads,           CPE, affiliate
 Revenue      CLV            commission       CAC, CLV        ARPDAU             donations      %, eyeballs


              Affiliates,     Other            API, magic      Spinoffs,          Analytics,     Syndication,
    Scale     white-label    verticals        #, mktplace     publishers         user data      licenses
Cost of customer acquisition

• CAC should be no more than 1/3 of CLV
  • CLV is wrong: The customer lifetime value you’ve calculated is probably
    wrong.
  • Time kills all plans: It’ll take a long time to find out whether you’ve
    underestimated churn or overestimated customer spend.
  • CAC is wrong: The acquisition cost is probably wrong, too.
  • Cashflow: Between the time that you spend money to acquire someone and
    the time you recoup that investment, you’re basically “loaning” the customer
    money.
  • It keeps you honest: Limiting yourself to a Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC)
    of only a third of your CLV will force you to verify your acquisition costs
    sooner.
User-generated content:
Time on site per day




          17
                                                    Reddit: 17
                                                    Techstars co’s: 17
                                                    Pinterest: 14
                                                    Tumblr: 21
                                                    Facebook: 60
            minutes/day.

(No, really, it’s weird how often this comes up.)
SaaS:
Paid enrollment

                               No credit card         No credit card, focus
   Credit cart upfront
                                  upfront              on serious users

      100 try it (2%)          500 try it (10%)            500 try it (10%)

 50 become subscribers 75 become subscribers               125 become
        (50%)                 (15%)                      subscribers (25%)

   20 churn fast (40%)       15 churn fast (20%)        25 churn fast (20%)

   30 customers remain      60 customers remain        100 customers remain
          (0.6%)                   (1.2%)                      (2%)

• If you focus on serious users through profiling, and manage engagement during
  trial/freemium, you can beat that with no card.


                                   Totango analyzed data across their SaaS client base
Mobile app:
Loyalty by app category
Choose only one metric.
Metrics are like
      squeeze toys.




http://www.flickr.com/photos/connortarter/4791605202/
Pic by Twodolla on Flickr. http://www.flickr.com/photos/twodolla/3168857844
ARCHIMEDES
  HAD TAKEN
BATHS BEFORE.
Once, a leader convinced others in
the absence of data.
Now, a leader knows what
questions to ask.
Ben Yoskovitz
byosko@gmail.com
@byosko




Alistair Croll
acroll@gmail.com
@acroll

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Lean Analytics for Nikkei BP

  • 1. Lean Analytics Use data to build a better business faster. www.leananalyticsbook.com @byosko | @acroll @leananalytics
  • 2. Kevin Costner is a lousy entrepreneur. Don’t sell what you can make. Make what you can sell.
  • 3. The basic Lean message is learn and adapt, fast.
  • 4. A metric from the early, foolish days of the Web. Hits Count people instead. Marginally better than hits. Unless you’re displaying Page views ad inventory, count people. Is this one person visiting a hundred times, or are a Visits hundred people visiting once? Fail. This tells you nothing about what they did, why they Unique visitors stuck around, or if they left. Followers/ Count actions instead. Find out how many followers friends/likes will do your bidding. Time on site, or Poor version of engagement. Lots of time spent on pages/visit support pages is actually a bad sign. How many recipients will act on what’s in them? Emails collected Number of Outside app stores, downloads alone don’t lead to downloads lifetime value. Measure activations/active accounts.
  • 5. http://www.flickr.com/photos/circasassy/7858155676/ it’s a how you behave, If it won’t change bad metric.
  • 6. What mode of e-commerce are you? How many of your customers Then you are in Your customers You are just Focus on buy a second this mode will buy from you like time in 90 days? Low CAC, 1-15% Acquisition Once 70% high of retailers checkout 15-30% Hybrid 2-2.5 20% Increasing per year of retailers returns Loyalty, >30% Loyalty >2.5 10% inventory per year of retailers expansion (Thanks to Kevin Hilstrom for this.)
  • 7. Eric Ries’ Three engines Stickiness Virality Price Approach Keep people Make people Spend revenue coming back. invite friends. getting customers. Math that Get customers How many they Customers are matters faster than you tell, how fast worth more than lose them. they tell them. they cost to get.
  • 8. Dave McClure’s Pirate metrics How do your users become aware of you? Acquisition AARRR SEO, SEM, widgets, email, PR, campaigns, blogs ... Do drive-by visitors subscribe, use, etc? Activation Features, design, tone, compensation, affirmation ... Does a one-time user become engaged? Retention Notifications, alerts, reminders, emails, updates... Do you make money from user activity? Revenue Transactions, clicks, subscriptions, DLC, analytics... Do users promote your product? Referral Email, widgets, campaigns, likes, RTs, affiliates...
  • 9. The five Stages of Lean Analytics The business you’re in E- 2-sided Mobile User-gen SaaS Media commerce market app content Empathy The stage you’re at One Metric Stickiness Virality Revenue That Matters. Scale
  • 10. What’s your OMTM? E- 2-sided Mobile User-gen SaaS Media commerce market app content Empathy Interviews; qualitative results; quantitative scoring; surveys Loyalty, Inventory, Engagement, Downloads, Content, Traffic, visits, Stickiness conversion listings churn churn, virality spam returns CAC, shares, Inherent WoM, app Invites, Content Virality reactivation SEM, sharing virality, CAC ratings, CAC sharing virality, SEM (Money from transactions) (Money from active users) (Money from ad clicks) Transaction, Transactions, Upselling, CLV, Ads, CPE, affiliate Revenue CLV commission CAC, CLV ARPDAU donations %, eyeballs Affiliates, Other API, magic Spinoffs, Analytics, Syndication, Scale white-label verticals #, mktplace publishers user data licenses
  • 11. Cost of customer acquisition • CAC should be no more than 1/3 of CLV • CLV is wrong: The customer lifetime value you’ve calculated is probably wrong. • Time kills all plans: It’ll take a long time to find out whether you’ve underestimated churn or overestimated customer spend. • CAC is wrong: The acquisition cost is probably wrong, too. • Cashflow: Between the time that you spend money to acquire someone and the time you recoup that investment, you’re basically “loaning” the customer money. • It keeps you honest: Limiting yourself to a Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC) of only a third of your CLV will force you to verify your acquisition costs sooner.
  • 12. User-generated content: Time on site per day 17 Reddit: 17 Techstars co’s: 17 Pinterest: 14 Tumblr: 21 Facebook: 60 minutes/day. (No, really, it’s weird how often this comes up.)
  • 13. SaaS: Paid enrollment No credit card No credit card, focus Credit cart upfront upfront on serious users 100 try it (2%) 500 try it (10%) 500 try it (10%) 50 become subscribers 75 become subscribers 125 become (50%) (15%) subscribers (25%) 20 churn fast (40%) 15 churn fast (20%) 25 churn fast (20%) 30 customers remain 60 customers remain 100 customers remain (0.6%) (1.2%) (2%) • If you focus on serious users through profiling, and manage engagement during trial/freemium, you can beat that with no card. Totango analyzed data across their SaaS client base
  • 14. Mobile app: Loyalty by app category
  • 15. Choose only one metric.
  • 16. Metrics are like squeeze toys. http://www.flickr.com/photos/connortarter/4791605202/
  • 17. Pic by Twodolla on Flickr. http://www.flickr.com/photos/twodolla/3168857844
  • 18. ARCHIMEDES HAD TAKEN BATHS BEFORE.
  • 19. Once, a leader convinced others in the absence of data.
  • 20. Now, a leader knows what questions to ask.