2. The California experience
Lines shown on the map:
- Spatial clients
distribution
- Population density
- Stores chain
- Sales results
All data is divided by
categories. All this is the
material for analysis.
3. Common tasks:
• Comparison of investment attractiveness of the
cities and regions of Russia for the expansion
• Chain planning from scratch in a specific city
(how much? where? when?)
• Chain expansion in a specific city
• Optimizing the work of existing chain
(assortment, etc.)
• Forecast of the revenue in a potential place
• Assessment of the optimal point size
• Assessment of the advertizing places (including
direct marketing)
4. Some tasks solved with use of
geomarketing
• Planning chains of different profiles (“from scratch”,
expansion, etc.) in a region
• Optimizing trading network activity
• Justification of the selection of functional purpose of
a building footprint (Best Used and others.)
• Analysis of existing object environment, situation
forecast, tenants matrix and so on
• Assessment of investment attractiveness for the
construction (district, city, region)
5. Planning a chain of large commercial objects in
Saint Petersburg and Leningrad region
• Determination of the number of shopping centers
• The most attractive lines (or places) from the
point of view of consumer, competitors, territory
development
• Location adjustment
• Construction and analysis of future trade zones
• Justification of tenants matrix
• Attendance forecast
• Map of the future chain in one year, two years,
etc.
6. Planning a chain of large commercial objects
in Saint Petersburg and Leningrad region
7. Planning a chain of large commercial objects in
Moscow, Moscow region and other cities
• Collecting and actualizing data
• Spatial modeling
• Selection of the most attractive zones by global
analysis
• Justification of the opening order by zone rating
• Location adjustment of the site within the zone by
local analysis
• Justification of the required site size
• Justification of the shopping center format (retail-
park) depending on the territory and the market
needs
• Construction and analysis of trade zones
Retail-parks chain
of Moscow region
8.
9. Resource zones analysis
• Construction of a trade (resource) zone
• Collecting and actualizing data on it
• Justification of the functional purpose of a site, the
format of commercial real estate and its spaces
• Justification of the matrix of tenants in commercial
real estate object (area, profile)
• Flows and visitors forecast
• Forecast of the market potential and of the average
check in a construction place
• Preparation of high quality material to attract tenants
10. Trade zone
• A district where commercial organization
can sell economically sound some product
or service
• Territory with consumers of certain goods
or services of a particular firm or a group of
firms
• Territory that is a source of consumers who
are attracted by the retailer to his store
11. Zoning examples
MoreMore::
- Expert zones- Expert zones
- Huff model- Huff model
- “Russian Huff” model- “Russian Huff” model ((CSR projectCSR project))
and othersand others
Zones obtained by geocoding of clientsZones obtained by geocoding of clients (delivery,
consumer maps, etc.)
Transport
availability of an
object
Walking
availability of the
outlets
Zones of
equidistance from
the outlets
Zones obtained by
population survey
12. Advantages of knowing a trade zone
• Specification of the consumer characteristics
• Determination of the push and pull strategy
• Intersection of trade zones of chain branches or
franchises
• Predicting the actions of competitors
• Counting shops of the actual necessity in this area
• Detecting lack of trade zones (geographical
territories): obstacles in achieving a store
• Considering other factors: competition, financial
institutes, labor force, suppliers location, legal
restrictions, development perspectives
14. Location factors
• Population and its characteristics
• Availability of labor force
• Proximity to suppliers
• Promotion opportunity
• Economic basis: enterprises and companies
providing population with work (leading
enterprise role is particularly important)
• Competitive environment
• Availability of places for the store siting
• Legislation
18. Economic indicators
of the local market
• Estimation of capacity (target audience
solvency)
• Estimation of saturation (distribution of
demand among competitors)
• Attendance forecast
20. Perspectives of town-planning
development
Map of the functional zones borders displaying parameters of
planned development of the matched zones and borders of
Saint Petersburg
Map of Saint Petersburg town zoning regarding the borders
of territorial zones
22. Residential function analysis
• Determination of preferred characteristics of
housing estate on the territory
• Competitive situation assessment
• Estimation of the nearest time of construction
of social infrastructure objects (kindergarten,
school) in a housing estate
• Estimation of the nonresidential function on the
ground floors – integrated premises in a
housing estate (trade, entertainment, sport,
offices, etc.)
• Map (base) of the buildings under construction
• Geomarketing information system for
estimation of territory infrastructure
23. Analysis of objects environment
Shopping centers, malls, gardening centers, etc.
– Trading zone construction by distance from an object
– Data collection and update (about consumer,
competitors, territorial development on maps and in
zones)
– Calculation of zone provision of trade and office spaces
– Justification of tenants matrix inside the trading object
(size, profile)
– Flows forecast, visitors estimation of future object
– Market potential forecast, average check in a building
place forecast
– Qualified material preparation for tenants attracting
Housing estates and malls
– Competition situation estimation, map of buildings
under construction (geodatabase)
– Non-residential function forecast on the ground floors –
built-in facilities in a housing estate
(trade, entertainment, sport, offices, etc.)
– Short term construction estimation of social
infrastructure objects (kindergarten, school) in a
housing estate
– Geomarketing information system for territorial
infrastructure estimation
5 мин
5 - 10 мин
10 - 15 мин
ожидаемое кол-во жилой недвижимости
ожидаемое кол-во нежилой
недвижимости
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
%
Удаленность на
транспорте от
ТРК
Соотношение приростов жилой и нежилой недвижимости
(прогноз с 2006 - 2008 г.г.)
For development (shopping center,
mall, housing estate, etc.)
24. GIS in real estate
• Strategic tasks
– Expansion of services
– Improving the quality of decision-making of clients, consumers, investors or
company managers
– Possibility to get information from the other information systems
(commercial companies, state agencies) and considering them while making
decision
– Entering new markets (geomarketing research for trade chains)
– Obtaining of worthy competitive advantages and company positioning
• Day-to-day tasks
– Day-to-day collection, updating and visualization of real estate objects
– Marketing analysis of territories and real estate market
– Geomarketing analysis of other markets
– Making of high-quality reports for company management, investor,
consumer or client
– Additional possibilities to navigate within the city and to visualize in the
Internet
25. GIS advantages. Development
For investor:
– Understandable format for assessment
– Multifactorial justified geomarketing analysis of territories and real
estate
Reducing the risk of investments
For developer:
– Automated process of collecting and updating of spatial
information about real estate object (acceleration of agents
performance)
– Construction of analytical block, output of new indicators, output
of factors influencing the territory assessment
– Creation of additional opportunities making a profit (e.g. reference,
operational consulting)
– Convenience (on the basis of common formats) of embedding GIS
into Your information system
Reducing costs
26. Shopping center concept
• Location and trade zone research
• Analyzing efficiency of siting in a shopping
center for anchor tenants
• Defining the optimal size and format of a
shopping center
• Compiling the matrix of balanced tenancy
• Costs assessment and project profitability
forecast
• Task for pre-project works
27. Geomarketing research onGeomarketing research on
assessment of the attractiveness ofassessment of the attractiveness of
multifunctional complex locationmultifunctional complex location
(business center, shopping mall,
including supermarket on the ground floor)
address: Saint Petersburg, Lanskoye shosse 35
28. Research aims
• Assessing the attractiveness of the location of the future
shopping mall
• Assessing the attractiveness of the location of the future
business center
• Recommendations for choosing a future business form:
shopping center or business center
• Forecast of the future shopping mall attendance
• Assessing the attractiveness of the location of a middle-
class supermarket in a shopping center or a business
center
• Forecast of the future supermarket attendance
30. Areas of the subway accessibility zones, km²
Udelnaya 7,28
Lesnaya 5,21
Chernaya rechka 5,03
Pionerskaya 4,93
Ploschad Muzhestva 3,37
Komendantsky prospekt 2,96
Politekhnicheskaya 2,77
Staraya derevnya 2,75
Petrogradskaya 2,65
Vyborgskaya 2,59
Ozerki 1,75
Krestovsky ostrov 0,29
Territory
31. Active population by accessibility zones
Resource
accessibility
zone
Active
population
% of active
population
among total
population in a
zone
Active population
density (persons per
km² of a zone)
15 min
transport
180093 63 4329,16
10 min
transport
77386 62 5124,9
5 min
transport
22417 61,7 5899,21
15 min
walking
22214 62,8 4533,47
10 min
walking
14431 61,4 6559,55
One population concentration focus is visible. It is within 15 min zone in
the area of Pionerskaya and Komendantsky prospekt
32. Assessing the residents income level
Multifactorial assessment model
Density of
inhabited new
buildings since
90s
Density of
residential
buildings in
construction
Housing supply
market
Large congestions of the people with high income can be assessed in the northern part
of 5 min transport accessibility zone in the area of Pionerskaya and Udelanaya subway
stations
33. Evaluation of the transport network
and car flows
Условные обозначения
avg
0 - 9021
9022 - 18042
18043 - 27062
27063 - 36083
36084 - 45104
•Object zone is transit
•About 50 to 70 thousands of cars pass
the object both ways per day
•The volume of the flow from the center
can be estimated by the two bridges
•Average daily car flow is bigger on
Torzhkovskaya ulitsa
34. Pedestrian flows assessment
Зоны_станций_метро_15_минут2
Mean
261 - 2479
2480 - 4696
4697 - 6913
6914 - 9130
9131 - 11347
In the zone of Chernaya rechka the
average amount of persons per km² is
6484 or 32 584 persons per the full
area (estimation model)
50 000 people pass
through the station
Chernaya rechka
35. Area indexes (field work)
Maximum local flow in the zone 140472 15984
Average local flow in the zone 30000 10507
Minimum local flow in the zone 6912 6912
Characteristic 10 min walking accessibility 10 min walking
accessibility
Area indexes (model)
Zone area 2,2 km² 0,5 km²
Maximum local flow in the zone 32974 7843
Average local flow in the zone
25411 6854
Minimum local flow in the zone 8530 4940
Pedestrian flows assessment
37. Characteristic 10 min walking
accessibility
10 min walking
accessibility
Indexes, calibrated model
Zone area 2,2 кв.км 0,5 кв.км
Maximum local flow in the zone 86723 11914
Average local flow in the zone
27706 8681
Minimum local flow in the zone 7721 5926
Pedestrian flows assessment
40. Competitive analysis
1. Using map it is possible to see a large number of
competitors in the zone of Chernaya rechka, Staraya
derevnya and Pionerskaya.
2. High density of discounters and business centers is
seen in the 5 min transport accessibility zone.
3. Shopping malls, cinemas and supermarkets are
completely absent in the 5 min transport accessibility
zone.
4. High density of nonfood stores is in the 10 min walking accessibility
zone. And besides this density falls in the 15 min walking zone not
least because of nonresidential body there. And it rises again
approaching the 10 min transport zone.
5. In absolute terms, the distribution of all types of stores for all zones is
approximately the same. Only nonfood stores stand out from the
overall picture. Their number in the 10 min transport zone is 283 that
is more than any other stores.
41. Competitive analysis
1. Accessibility zone of
Komendantsky prospekt and
Pionerskaya is on the first place
by the saturation of the main
competitors
2. It may be noted that
Chernaya rechka zone
possesses sufficiently large
number of various bars and
cafes but restaurants are
completely absent
3. Large number of beauty
salons is observed everywhere.
Also territory is saturated by
game machines.
42. Territories development
• The analysis showed a higher density of non-residential bodies compared to residential in the all zones
• A number of non-residential premises rises with distance from the center. Primarily it is connected
with the fact that large areas of former factories (e.g. close to Pionerskaya station), park areas and
garages are being captured.
• The analysis shows the current dominance of residential areas over non-residential in the 5 min
transport accessibility zone.
• It is predicted that 5 min transport accessibility zone will develop very slow. Design and survey work is
completely absent. It says that nothing new are going to be constructed in the nearest future.
• The capital contribution will be directed to residential bodies which have good dynamics of
development on a par with non-residential and compose building projects belonging to the trade and
public and business. Industrial investments to the sport and entertainment hold extremely low
positions.
43. Forecast of the flows next to object
through 3 years
Scenario
Residential
areas growth
(%)
Resident
population
growth (%)
Pedestrian
flows growth
(%)
Existing density of
the pedestrian flows
next to object (June
2006)
Projected flows
dencity next to the
shopping mall in 5
min walking zone
(pers./day)
Optimistic 16,2 1,5 3,4 11 914 12 319
Realistic 15,6 1,44 3,1 8 681 8 950
Pessimistic 15 1,38 2,8 5 962 6 092
44. Shopping mall?
Factors influencing the shopping mall opening:
1. Resident population density
2. Economically active population density
3. Density of resident population with above-average incomes
4. Density of existing buildings and buildings under construction
5. Density and proximity of the main competitors
6. Minor competitors density
7. Availability of stores and shopping malls areas to the population
in a resource zone
8. Rental rates for tenants by the city and by the districts
9. Intensity of development of trade and entertainment objects on
the territory in a resource zone
10. Intensity of development of residential and non-residential blocks
11. Infrastructure surrounding shopping center
45. Which types of stores the 10-minute
resource zone lacks?
Based on the analysis of availability of stores and services in the
resource zone:
• Billiards, bowling (1,3)
• Cinema (0,9)
• Fitness and health centers (5,6)
• Restaurants (9,2)
• Supermarkets (2,1)
• Food stores (3,0)
• Additionally:
– Night clubs
– Stationary
– Furniture stores
– Household appliances
47. Business center?
Factors influencing the business center
development:
– Development of social and business life in St.
Petersburg. Development of demand on business
centers.
– Development of business zones in the city center
and on the outskirts. Factor of business centers
crowding in the city districts.
– Offering new business centers of different areas
and different classes in the residential districts
(Vyborgsky, Primorsky, Moskovsky, etc.)
– Rents for office space
48. Characteristics of the business
center development
• Northern districts have 114 business centers of
different classes and areas in total
• 19% of business centers in terms of units
• 17% in the buildings areas
The analysis shows the business activity at the
moment and in a few years
40 business centers of С class
17 business centers of В class
11 business centers of В+ class
1 business center of А class
Approximate number of employees
43 thousand
In the north
In the 15 min transport zone
49. Strengths by particular objects
Business center Shopping center / mall Supermarket Cinema
1. High social and economic
activity in the southern part
of Vyborgsky, Primorsky and
Kalininsky district
2. Vyborsky district ranks 3rd
(after Centralny and
Moskovsky) by number of
offered office space in
business centers
3. High rents for office spaces
in business centers in
Primorsky district
4. Potential tenants are ready
to abandon location “elitism”
in the city center in favor of
large comfortable offices with
an area of 100-500 m² in a
business center of В and В+
class
5. Highways convenient for
traffic are nearby
(Vyborgskaya naberezhnaya
and repaired Bolshoy
Sampsonievsky prospekt)
1. Highways convenient for
traffic are nearby, heavy
traffic in all directions on
them. It is good for
developing a shopping
center of urban level
2. No shopping centers and
shopping malls in the 10
min walking zone
3. According to the analysis
of availability of stores and
services there is a lack of
entertainment facilities and
services
4. Development of
residential buildings is
more intense than of
nonresidential in the 10
and 15 min resource zone
1. Supermarkets are completely absent
in the 15 min walking and 5 min
transport zones. One hypermarket is
within the 15 min zone.
2. Good prognosis of supermarket
visiting based on the number of people
living and walking in the trade zone of
the latter. According to realistic
scenario 3 814 and 3 133 respectively.
Assuming the same level of income of
residing people
3. A hypermarket should be opened on
the place of Maksim cinema in terms of
the traffic and the fact that this zone is
a linkage between the center and the
residential districts. 50 000 cars per
day move along Lanskoye shosse and
Torzhkovskaya ulitsa
4. Lack of “supermarket” type stores in
the 15 min resource zone (0,9) and in
the 10 min resource zone (2,1)
5. Development of residential buildings
is more intense than of nonresidential
in the 10 and 15 min resource zone
1. Only one
cinema is in the
10 min
transport zone.
No cinemas in
the 15 min
walking zone
50. Business center Shopping center / mall Supermarket Cinema
1. Inconvenient
access from
Lanskoye
shosse.
Disadvantage is
eliminated in
case of making
access from
Torzhkovskaya
ulitsa
1. Low rents for retail spaces in
shopping centers and shopping malls
in Primorsky and Vyborgsky districts
2. A small number of people with
average and above average income
3. A small number of new homes
built after the 90s, prevalence of
“khrushchovkas” in the 10 min
walking zone
4. Currently nonresidential areas
prevail over residential in the 10 min
transport zone and in the all walking
zones
5. In absolute terms building of
nonresidential areas exceeds building
of residential areas
6. Inconvenient access from
Lanskoye shosse. Disadvantage is
eliminated in case of making access
from Torzhkovskaya ulitsa
1. A small number of people with
average and above average income
2. A small number of economically
active population (16-60 y.o.) as
compared with average city index
3. A small number of new homes
built after the 90s, prevalence of
“khrushchovkas” in the 10 min
walking zone
4. Low increase of residential area
as compared with nonresidential in
the 5 min transport zone
5. Low increase of walking flows in
3 years
6. High concentration of lower class
food stores
1. It is not
recommended
to open VIP
halls in
cinema
because of
people with
low incomes
living nearby
Weaknesses by particular objects
52. Thank you!Thank you!
• MANAGING DIRECTOR
• DENIS STRUKOV
• HEAD OF INFORMATION
AND ANALYTICAL
DEPARTMENT
• MAYA EPSTEIN
The Center for Spatial Research
Saint-Petersburg, Fermskoe sh., b. 22, of. 200.1
E-mail: Strukov@geointellect.com,
Contacts in Moscow: +7(495) 374-09-54, +7-916-812-46-00
Contact in St.Petersburg: +7-921-983-70-73, +7(812) 647-90-77
Notes de l'éditeur
добавил
по градостроительству надо думать. надо генплан вставлять по идее и пзз
