1. I s su e 14 , Vo lu me 7 / Fe br u ar y 15 , 201 3
Positive Housing Tidbits…and the Market The Week Ahead -> The “Keys”
Tim McLaughlin
- A Boatload of Inflation and Housing Data this Week
On Monday, we received yet another positive housing
price measure for 2013, learning from the National Date Economic Release Prediction Last
Association of Realtors that the national median existing
single family home price was $178,900 in 4Q, up 10.0%
2/19 NAHB Housing Market Index 48 47
from $162,600 in 4Q2011, the strongest year over year price
increase since the 4Q 2005.The median existing single 2/19 Mortgage Delinquencies - 7.40%
family home price rose in 133 out of 152 metropolitan
statistical areas. 2/19 MBA Mortgage Foreclosures - 4.07%
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist who in the past has 2/20 MBA Mortgage Applications - -6.4%
commented about lending standards being too restrictive,
said all the conditions for strong price growth are at play. 2/20 Housing Starts 924K 954K
"Home sales are on a sustained uptrend, mortgage interest
2/20 Housing Starts (MoM) -3.2% 12.1%
rates are hovering near record lows and unsold inventory is
at the lowest level in 12 years," he said. "Home sales are 2/20 Building Permits 920K 909K
being fueled by a pent-up demand and job creation, along
with still favorable affordability conditions and rents rising at 2/20 Building Permits (MoM) 1.2% 1.0%
faster rates. Our population has been growing faster than
overall housing stock, so supply and demand dynamics are 2/20 PPI (MoM) 0.4% -0.2%
very much at play."
2/20 ex Food/Energy 0.2% 0.1%
Yun added that more housing construction is needed to 2/20 PPI (YoY) 1.5% 1.3%
relieve some of the pressure in the market and keep home
prices from overheating. 2/20 ex Food/Energy 1.7% 2.0%
=================== 2/20 FOMC Jan 30 Mtg Minutes - -
Update on the Market: 2/21 CPI (MoM) 0.1% 0.0%
We continue to see the 10 year Treasury yield at the 2/21 ex Food/Energy 0.2% 0.1%
highest levels since early 2012 as the yield topped
2.00% again this morning. 2/21 CPI (YoY) 1.7% 1.7%
Combined with that is continued MBS to Treasury 2/21 ex Food/Energy 1.8% 1.9%
widening (essentially, Mortgage Backed yields are
trading even wider to Treasuries, exacerbating the 2/21 Initial Jobless Claims 360K 341K
rate issue).
2/21 Continuing Claims 3161K 3114K
We are seeing cash flow into Equities and the Dollar
(the Dollar/Yen trade is a money maker right now), 2/21 BB Consumer Comfort - -35.9
with the negative recipient of the trade being all
classes of Fixed Income (particularly Mortgage 2/21 Philly Fed Survey 1.0 -5.8
Backed Securities).
2/21 Existing Home Sales 4.90M 4.94M
With that said, we are still seeing 30 year Mortgages
with a 3 handle, and 15 years still beginning with a 2/21 Existing Home Sales (MoM) -0.8% -1.0%
2 in most cases, as the spring market beings to get
its legs.
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