PlanAshland: Trends & Projections for the town of Ashland, Massachusetts
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- The document discusses population trends in Ashland, MA including an aging population as Baby Boomers retire, slowing labor force growth, and increasing senior households. - The total population is projected to grow 20% by 2030, with the over-65 population potentially doubling. However, the labor force will be impacted as 39% of current workers over age 40 will retire by 2030. - Housing demand is also projected to increase, with a need for 970 additional units between 2010-2020 to accommodate new households, half being multifamily housing. Senior households will comprise 1/3 of all households by 2030.
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PlanAshland: Trends & Projections for the town of Ashland, Massachusetts
- 1. Ashland Trends and Projections Ashland Community Center October 27, 2014 Timothy Reardon Assistant Director of Data Services Metropolitan Area Planning Council
- 2. Regional Wave of Boomer Retirement 300,000 200,000 100,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 - 15 - 19 20 - 24 25 - 29 2040, Status Quo 30 - 34 35 - 39 40 - 44 45 - 49 50 - 54 55 - 59 60 - 64 65 - 69 70 - 74 75 - 79 80 - 84 85 plus Age - 2010 In Labor Force - 2020, Status Quo •Baby Boomers (born 1945 – 1970) comprise 49% of labor force •One million workers now over the age of 40 will retire by 2030 (39% of labor force) •Existing population is insufficient to fill vacant positions • Baby Boomer s Baby Boomer s Baby Boome rs
- 3. AshlaRneds:i dIennctrse wahsoin mgolyve Ad tttor Aacshtilavned within past year: 9% Ages 25 – 44 only cohort with net in-migration Residents who changed homes within Ashland: Net Migration by Age, Town of Ashland <0.15% 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 (100) (200) (300) (400) 0 - 4 5 - 9 10 - 14 15 - 19 20 - 24 1990s and 2000s 25 - 29 30 - 34 35 - 39 40 - 44 45 - 49 50 - 54 55 - 59 60 - 64 65 - 69 70 - 74 75 - 79 80 - 84 85 plus Net Migrants in/(out) in Previous Decade Age at End of Decade 1990 - 2000 2000 - 2010 Source: U.S. Census, MassCHIP, MAPC Analysis
- 4. Strong Growth, Aging Population • Total population projected to grow 20% by 2030 Over-65 population may double 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 - Population by Age, Town of Ashland 2000 - 2030, Stronger Region Scenario Under 10 10 - 19 20 - 29 30 - 39 40 - 49 50 - 59 60 - 69 70 - 79 Over 80 Age Group 2000 2010 2020 2030 Source: MAPC Population Projections 2014
- 5. Househ•oNludm Gberr oofw hotuhseholds likely to grow 32% from 2010 – 2030; senior households will be 1/3 of total 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2010 2020 2030 Number of Households Households by Age of Householder, 2010 - 2030, Town of Ashland over 75 65 - 75 55 - 65 35 - 54 Under 35
- 6. Robust H•oToutasli 1n0g-y eDare nmet haonusding demand: 970 units • 50% multifamily, 50% single family Net Housing Unit Demand by Age, Town of Ashland, 2010 - 2020, Stronger Region Scenario 240 140 60 (140) 440 (250) 50 (50) 340 770 (220) (380) 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 - (200) (400) (600) (800) Born after 1984 Born 1966 to 1984 Born 1945 to 1964 Born before 1945 Net Housing Unit Demand, 2010 - 2020 Age in 2010 Single Family Multifamily Rent Multifamily Own Source: MAPC Population Projections 2013
Notes de l'éditeur
- I want to start by talking about something other than housing, to highlight why it is so critically important to address the region’s housing needs. Over the coming decades, the Baby Boomers (born between 1945 and 1970) will be reaching retirement age, depleting the supply of our region’s most critical asset: a skilled, well-educated workforce. By 2030, nearly one million workers now over the age of 40—39% of all workers in the region—will have left the labor force. If current rates of births and migration continue, the current population of young adults is barely sufficient to fill the positions vacated by retiring Baby Boomers, much less provide the labor force needed for robust economic growth. I’d like to start with one of the preeminent challenges facing the region’s long-term economic fortune: labor force availability. MAPC recently developed population projections for the region which indicate that the region may not have enough workers to support a growing economy if current trends continue, and I’ll explain why. Over the coming decades, the Baby Boomers (born between 1945 and 1970) will be reaching retirement age, depleting the supply of our region’s most critical asset: a skilled, well-educated workforce. By 2030, nearly one million workers now over the age of 40—39% of all workers in the region—will have left the labor force. The current population of young adults is barely sufficient to fill the positions vacated by retiring Baby Boomers, much less provide the labor force needed for robust economic growth. Metro Boston attracts a large number of young adults to our colleges and universities, but we have a hard time retaining them as they age into their 30s and 40s. If those migration trends continue, the total labor force may grow by less than 1% over the next three decades. As a result, retaining more young workers through moderately priced housing, amenities, and livabilty is a critical precondition for economic growth.
- If the region stems the loss of population to other states and achieves a small net inflow (as the Stronger Region Scenario anticipates), the labor force could grow by 175,000 over the next 30 years, an increase of almost 7%.
- A detailed understanding of the dynamics of migration into and out of the region is fundamentally important to forecasting the region’s future population. Approximately 97,000 people move into the region each year from other states, whereas an average of 103,000 people move out each year to other states. The loss of population represented by the difference between these two figures is termed net domestic outmigration and averaged 6,200 people per year from 2007 – 2011. The region also experiences net outmigration to other regions in Massachusetts, at the rate of about 4,400 people per year. These figures fluctuate from year to year based on economic conditions, but over a ten year period the result is a net loss of 100,000 people to other states or other parts of Massachusetts. The patterns vary by age as we. This chart shows the net migration over two ten year periods (1990 - 2000 and 2000 – 2010) based on the age of the cohort at the end of the decade. It shows that Metro Boston gained a significant number of people who are now between the ages of 15 and 29, but our population of school age kids and everybody over the age of 30 is smaller than it would be with no migration. If these trends continue, the region is likely to grow 2.1% per decade over the next thirty years, compared to 3.5% in the 2000s and more than 6% in the 1990s.
- About half of multifamily housing demand for new households will be provided by units freed up by downsizing or outmigrating seniors.