Food and Nutrition Security in Africa seminar in Helsinki 16 June 2014, Climate change impacts & adaptation in Senegal, Siwa Msangi, IFPRI

1. 16 June 2014, Helsinki, Finland
FoodAfrica Midterm Seminar
Food and Nutrition Security in Africa
Siwa Msangi, IFPRI
Jarkko Niemi, MTT
Amy Faye, ISRA
Climate change impacts & adaptation
in Senegal

2. 16 June 2014, Helsinki, Finland
Overview of Work Package 3
• Focused on examining the climate change impacts on the
agricultural economy of Senegal, and options for adaptation
• Covers several key aspects:
• Impacts on crop productivity and farm incomes in key regions such as
the peanut basin (among others)
• Goes beyond crops to also consider the impacts on livestock –
especially in the extensive systems of the drylands (Ferlo) – often
overlooked in many climate change studies
• Will look at the macro-level implications of climate change – with
economy-wide linkages between agriculture and other key sectors
• Working closely with local partners (ISRA) and linking with
other relevant institutions/initiatives (CIRAD-PPZS, AgMIP)
FoodAfrica Midterm Seminar
Food and Nutrition Security in Africa
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3. 16 June 2014, Helsinki, Finland
Looking at crop production impacts
• Building on work done by IFPRI & others to measure yield
impacts for key crop sectors
• Building on methodologies used before for measuring crop
technology adoption in Senegal – the ’Trade-off Analysis’
(TOA) model – adapting it to new data for Senegal
• Also adopting newer techniques of modeling farm-level
behavior that can better illustrate the decisions and trade-offs
that face farmers at the micro-level
• Amy Faye (PhD student working at ISRA) will bring out some
of these results in her poster presentation
FoodAfrica Midterm Seminar
Food and Nutrition Security in Africa
3

4. 16 June 2014, Helsinki, Finland
Production from ’medium’ farms in
peanut basin under stochastic shocks
FoodAfrica Midterm Seminar
Food and Nutrition Security in Africa
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5. 16 June 2014, Helsinki, Finland
Analysing climate data for Senegal as
basis for scenario work
FoodAfrica Midterm Seminar
Food and Nutrition Security in Africa
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6. 16 June 2014, Helsinki, Finland
Looking at the livestock sector
• Due to the increased vulnerability of dryland areas to climate
shocks, we have invested considerable effort in understanding
how pastoralists adapt to climate-driven fluctations in feed
availability
• Capturing decisions around transhumance (moving animals
across space) has required the use of specialized modeling
techniques that can take the dynamics into account
• This allows us to model how decisions on stocking rates and
animal movements might be affected by climate shocks
• We can also compare the effectiveness of transhumance
(moving animals across space) to moving feed across space
with the introduction of feed markets
FoodAfrica Midterm Seminar
Food and Nutrition Security in Africa
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7. 16 June 2014, Helsinki, Finland
Transhumance in the 1950’s and in
2000’s
23.6.2014© MTT Agrifood Research Finland 7
Cesaro et al.
1950’s 2000’s

8. 16 June 2014, Helsinki, Finland
Low rainfall will increase the sales and
reduce stocking rate in the next year
6/23/
© MTT Agrifood Research Finland
8
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
0.02 0.08 0.14 0.2
Changeinstocksize(%)
Stocking rate (TLU/ha
before transhumance)
Normalyear
Drought
• Transhumant population is more resilient to adverse
weather than non-transhumant population
More livestock than local biomass production entails
• Regions are not isolated -transhumance affects livestock
also in the rainy region

9. 16 June 2014, Helsinki, Finland
6/23/
© MTT Agrifood Research Finland
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Factors which increase transhumance
High stocking rate in the dry region
Little stock in the rainy region
Drought in the dry region
Low costs of travel
High meat price
Low discount rate
No feed markets

10. 16 June 2014, Helsinki, Finland
A macro-level perspective
• We consider market-level outcomes, in order to capture the
implications for the agricultural sector – and what it entails for
the wider economy
• We start with a partial-equilibrium framework, which focuses
on the specific crop sectors of interest, and enables us to
aggregate up more directly from the farm-level outcomes
• We are also preparing an economy-wide analysis, that will
make use of an updated social accounting matrix (SAM) for
Senegal – to give us the implications of climate change for
agriculture & the rest of the economy
• This will enable us to examine the implications for growth and
tradeoffs in investments at the macro-level
FoodAfrica Midterm Seminar
Food and Nutrition Security in Africa
10

11. 16 June 2014, Helsinki, Finland
Summary
• Impacts on groundnuts and grains could be significant –
although uncertainty exists about the severity of impacts
(some could be positive)
• In some regions, salinity control will be needed if irrigation is
to be considered an important means of adaptation
• Transhumance will become an even more important
mechanism of adaptation for extensive systems in the Ferlo –
feed markets could become highly beneficial as well
• Need to do further work to bring out the implications for
livestock in mixed crop systems – currently developing the
modeling tools to address this
FoodAfrica Midterm Seminar
Food and Nutrition Security in Africa
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12. 16 June 2014, Helsinki, Finland
Continuing work
• Continue to develop farm-level production models to cover
the range of farm types observed in the Peanut Basin and
Natural Casamance – better integrate them with livestock,
where data allows & mixed crop-livestock systems occur
• Continue to develop model of transhumance and herd
management for extensive systems in the Ferlo – integrate it
more closely with market modeling (to capture feedback in
the market for live animals & simulate feed mkt interventions)
• Develop additional scenarios with local partners and hold
consultative workshops with stakeholders in Senegal to
discuss results & get additional feedback
• Further work on economywide modeling & policy analysis
FoodAfrica Midterm Seminar
Food and Nutrition Security in Africa
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13. 16 June 2014, Helsinki, Finland
THANK YOU!
FoodAfrica Midterm Seminar
Food and Nutrition Security in Africa
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