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SPOT – Extended
and wrong timing
Catalyst: Earnings miss, increase in subscribers
Setup: Positive earnings reaction
Trades: HTF trend PB
Ticker: SPOT
Date: 31-1-23
Bigger picture: SPY Gap: 0.11%.
Support & resistance structure.
-Key level: 400.
-Level definition: has been tested for multiple days and
formed a resistance level. We gapped above, bounced of
this level and traded higher. This was the first sign of
support.
Yesterday we closed near/at this level. Today we didn’t
bounce of it, but started to reclaim VWAP and trade higher.
-Support: tested but not broken
Specific key levels
-Interaction with prior day’s low – from within the prior
day’s range: could not test it during the open. Traded away
from this level significantly.
-Interaction with opening range – successful break: very
clear break, although the price action wasn’t that clean.
But trended up along the 5m 9EMA for the first 1.5 hours.
This is a good break.
Day type
-Outside day: but only at the last 10 minutes of the trading
day.
-Trending market (volatile): doesn’t look very volatility but
spy did over 1atr move which is a strong day. Also, VIX is
high so it should be a volatile market.
Conditions
Favorable: I like when the market is trending. It increases
my odds of long trades, which I most often trade and
trades2hold.
Gameplan/checklist
SPOT 31-1-23 gameplan
Catalyst: earnings miss & loss. Subscriber growth.
Setup: positive earnings reaction: 9% gap. 2.5ATR gap
Volume: very high: 13.7%
Technicals: strong. Clear bottom in November and December. Broke through 50SMA. Increased in volume.
No up 30% in January, trading above the 10EMA.
Formed a small consolidation since the last week and are now gapping up big above that.
SPOT has gapped up big before on strong news about user growth. That was year over year user growth.
Other than that, I don’t see much strong gaps above 5%.
Think the catalyst is positive, but the reaction is a bit too much. We could get a choppy D1 with perhaps
an EOD PB opportunity.
Only want to short if it’s extremely weak intraday. It is a very strong stock lately, and it’s not short term
extended on the daily. Shorting would not be in line with the trend. I want everybody to be selling first
and show me that it’s overextended and today is the reversal.
10AM analysis
-Highest volume. Back through VWAP open. Opening range of 1.15ATR
-Open near top of the premarket range.
-Volume reclaiming VWAP is not significant. Failing down VWAP.
B) might be a choppy day or a positive earnings reaction reversal. Plenty of downside potential.
12PM analysis
SPOT started off as expected: choppy. But it now broke out of the opening range, pulled back of this level
and is currently trading at 1.64atr. Highest volume ticker. Would be looking for trend PB trade. We got
confirmed volume on the breakout. Catalyst matches setup and it is now strong intraday.
Daily chart/technicals: Strong
Clear bottom in November and
December.
Broke through 50SMA. Increased in
volume.
Up 30% in January, trading above the
10EMA.
Formed a small consolidation since
the last week and are now gapping up
big above that.
Time of day: it’s important!!
Trend PB's
n 44
Before 11AM 9,1%
11AM-12PM 20,5%
12AM-13PM 25,0%
13PM-14PM 11,4%
14PM-15PM 22,7%
after 15PM 11,4%
My stats show, as I highlighted earlier, that only a small percentages of PB’s occur between 13PM and
14PM. I have now also added my own PB performance of the month of January during these hours.
I am wasting valuable capital by trading during in this period. It’s hurting my business.
New rule: Don’t trade within 13Pm and 14PM. Use this time for reviewing!
Exception: A+ plays where C + S + T + volume +HTF all are aligned to go long/short. Examples in my
data set: DOCU and TSLA: Earnings beat & D2 continuation & extreme volume.
When is a stock pulling back after a BIG ATR move and
making a new HOD/LOD?
Up ..ATR on the day before PB
AND broke HOD
n 45
>1,90ATR 20,0%
>2 15,6%
>2,25 6,7%
>2,5 4,4%
<1,75 73,3%
Stock Date Catalyst Setup
MDGL 19-12-22Phase 3 succes Positive catalyst reaction
MDGL 21-12-22Phase 3 succes D3 continuation
GS 17-01-23Earnings miss Negative earnings reaction
UAL 18-01-23Earnings beat
Positive earnings reaction
reversal
DFS 19-01-23Earnings beat
Negative earnings reaction
reversal
ALLY 20-01-23Earnings beat Positive earnings reaction
NEE 25-01-23Earnings miss negative earnings reaction
TSLA 27-01-03Earnings beat D2 continuation
AXP 27-01-03
Earnings miss, guide
higher Positive earnings reaction
C+S
All setups had a very strong/weak catalyst that matched the setup. For example: earnings beat +
positive reaction. Only two setups did not: 1) UAL was a very strong technical reversal pattern that
overruled the earnings beat which was strong, but less strong than last quarter; 2) DFS which had a
strong beat but a very negative reaction + HTF level to bounce of. This was a great bounce day.
Market
It’s nice to have the market aligned with the ticker, but it’s not crucial. This tickers are so strong/weak
that they often have independent order flow.
Trade execution
I took all 25% entries, except on
the last one, but on the last one I
put in a higher stop.
On my second entry I sold earlier
because price failed to reclaim the
5m 20EMA. Good sell. If it doesn’t
feel right in the consolidation, when
the bounce isn’t that clean, I can
always get back in!
On my third entry I wasn’t prepared
enough for a re-entry. Got caught
off guard by big green candle. I did
find a good RR entry. I was
basically up 2R but the SPY sold
off. Sold break even.
Opening range PB! Missed setup!
Important resistance level:
-Opening range high and premarket high.
- Breaks on volume.
-Turns into support.
9EMA PB pattern.
-Increased buying on first stage of PB.
-Clean bounce directly of the 9EMA.
-Shallow volume during PB.
-Bidders showing up at 9EMA.
What could I have done
better?
• I can prep these mistakes I have made. Given the c + s + t, would I
trade this after a 1,8ATR move and between 13-14PM?
• To keep a better score whether I actually traded a playbook setup I
need to track in detail the setups that I have traded. Only then I
can truly compare if this setup fitted my playbook and what
adjustments I could make.
• In hindsight I should NOT have traded this, OR with smaller size
after 14PM as a move2move trade.
• I want to be better prepared for opening range PB trades. Now I
have identified it, I should set alerts and prepare for potential PB’s.
I want to have at least 7/10 levels.

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Antiplaybook - SPOT - 31-1-23.pptx

  • 1.
  • 2. SPOT – Extended and wrong timing Catalyst: Earnings miss, increase in subscribers Setup: Positive earnings reaction Trades: HTF trend PB Ticker: SPOT Date: 31-1-23
  • 3. Bigger picture: SPY Gap: 0.11%. Support & resistance structure. -Key level: 400. -Level definition: has been tested for multiple days and formed a resistance level. We gapped above, bounced of this level and traded higher. This was the first sign of support. Yesterday we closed near/at this level. Today we didn’t bounce of it, but started to reclaim VWAP and trade higher. -Support: tested but not broken Specific key levels -Interaction with prior day’s low – from within the prior day’s range: could not test it during the open. Traded away from this level significantly. -Interaction with opening range – successful break: very clear break, although the price action wasn’t that clean. But trended up along the 5m 9EMA for the first 1.5 hours. This is a good break. Day type -Outside day: but only at the last 10 minutes of the trading day. -Trending market (volatile): doesn’t look very volatility but spy did over 1atr move which is a strong day. Also, VIX is high so it should be a volatile market. Conditions Favorable: I like when the market is trending. It increases my odds of long trades, which I most often trade and trades2hold.
  • 4. Gameplan/checklist SPOT 31-1-23 gameplan Catalyst: earnings miss & loss. Subscriber growth. Setup: positive earnings reaction: 9% gap. 2.5ATR gap Volume: very high: 13.7% Technicals: strong. Clear bottom in November and December. Broke through 50SMA. Increased in volume. No up 30% in January, trading above the 10EMA. Formed a small consolidation since the last week and are now gapping up big above that. SPOT has gapped up big before on strong news about user growth. That was year over year user growth. Other than that, I don’t see much strong gaps above 5%. Think the catalyst is positive, but the reaction is a bit too much. We could get a choppy D1 with perhaps an EOD PB opportunity. Only want to short if it’s extremely weak intraday. It is a very strong stock lately, and it’s not short term extended on the daily. Shorting would not be in line with the trend. I want everybody to be selling first and show me that it’s overextended and today is the reversal. 10AM analysis -Highest volume. Back through VWAP open. Opening range of 1.15ATR -Open near top of the premarket range. -Volume reclaiming VWAP is not significant. Failing down VWAP. B) might be a choppy day or a positive earnings reaction reversal. Plenty of downside potential. 12PM analysis SPOT started off as expected: choppy. But it now broke out of the opening range, pulled back of this level and is currently trading at 1.64atr. Highest volume ticker. Would be looking for trend PB trade. We got confirmed volume on the breakout. Catalyst matches setup and it is now strong intraday.
  • 5. Daily chart/technicals: Strong Clear bottom in November and December. Broke through 50SMA. Increased in volume. Up 30% in January, trading above the 10EMA. Formed a small consolidation since the last week and are now gapping up big above that.
  • 6. Time of day: it’s important!! Trend PB's n 44 Before 11AM 9,1% 11AM-12PM 20,5% 12AM-13PM 25,0% 13PM-14PM 11,4% 14PM-15PM 22,7% after 15PM 11,4% My stats show, as I highlighted earlier, that only a small percentages of PB’s occur between 13PM and 14PM. I have now also added my own PB performance of the month of January during these hours. I am wasting valuable capital by trading during in this period. It’s hurting my business. New rule: Don’t trade within 13Pm and 14PM. Use this time for reviewing! Exception: A+ plays where C + S + T + volume +HTF all are aligned to go long/short. Examples in my data set: DOCU and TSLA: Earnings beat & D2 continuation & extreme volume.
  • 7. When is a stock pulling back after a BIG ATR move and making a new HOD/LOD? Up ..ATR on the day before PB AND broke HOD n 45 >1,90ATR 20,0% >2 15,6% >2,25 6,7% >2,5 4,4% <1,75 73,3% Stock Date Catalyst Setup MDGL 19-12-22Phase 3 succes Positive catalyst reaction MDGL 21-12-22Phase 3 succes D3 continuation GS 17-01-23Earnings miss Negative earnings reaction UAL 18-01-23Earnings beat Positive earnings reaction reversal DFS 19-01-23Earnings beat Negative earnings reaction reversal ALLY 20-01-23Earnings beat Positive earnings reaction NEE 25-01-23Earnings miss negative earnings reaction TSLA 27-01-03Earnings beat D2 continuation AXP 27-01-03 Earnings miss, guide higher Positive earnings reaction C+S All setups had a very strong/weak catalyst that matched the setup. For example: earnings beat + positive reaction. Only two setups did not: 1) UAL was a very strong technical reversal pattern that overruled the earnings beat which was strong, but less strong than last quarter; 2) DFS which had a strong beat but a very negative reaction + HTF level to bounce of. This was a great bounce day. Market It’s nice to have the market aligned with the ticker, but it’s not crucial. This tickers are so strong/weak that they often have independent order flow.
  • 8. Trade execution I took all 25% entries, except on the last one, but on the last one I put in a higher stop. On my second entry I sold earlier because price failed to reclaim the 5m 20EMA. Good sell. If it doesn’t feel right in the consolidation, when the bounce isn’t that clean, I can always get back in! On my third entry I wasn’t prepared enough for a re-entry. Got caught off guard by big green candle. I did find a good RR entry. I was basically up 2R but the SPY sold off. Sold break even.
  • 9. Opening range PB! Missed setup! Important resistance level: -Opening range high and premarket high. - Breaks on volume. -Turns into support. 9EMA PB pattern. -Increased buying on first stage of PB. -Clean bounce directly of the 9EMA. -Shallow volume during PB. -Bidders showing up at 9EMA.
  • 10. What could I have done better? • I can prep these mistakes I have made. Given the c + s + t, would I trade this after a 1,8ATR move and between 13-14PM? • To keep a better score whether I actually traded a playbook setup I need to track in detail the setups that I have traded. Only then I can truly compare if this setup fitted my playbook and what adjustments I could make. • In hindsight I should NOT have traded this, OR with smaller size after 14PM as a move2move trade. • I want to be better prepared for opening range PB trades. Now I have identified it, I should set alerts and prepare for potential PB’s. I want to have at least 7/10 levels.