Trend Trend day
Catalyst: Q4 deliver numbers lower than expected.
Setup: Trend Trend day
Trades: Trend PB
Ticker: TSLA
Date: 3-1-23

Bigger picture: QQQ and VIX
QQQ
Q’s have bounced and are
gapping up after a big sell
off. After spik up Q’s sold off
all morning making a >1ATR
move. Price retraced to
VWAP in the afternoon and
reclaimed prior days lows.
VIX level : 23
VIX is elevated and intraday
traders should shift more
focus to market plays
compared to stocks in play.

Gameplan
There is a fresh catalyst, but theme of weak price action is also important here. Could
have a setup with continuation to the downside. We’ll open around 119 dollars.
On the daily we had one green day where we couldn’t trade lower, followed by two
small green days where we barely finished green. If we hold below 118.50, we likely go
lower and fill the gap towards 116/115.
I shouldn’t put too much weight on last week’s intraday levels. They are important but
not crucial. Intraday levels that form are also very important.
Small red day.
I don’t have a strong bias, but as long as we don’t reclaim and 120-120.50, I think we’re
closing red today, although it looks like we open above VWAP.
If we can hold above, I want to look for strong long patterns or for extreme weakness
on the backside.
I want to look for extreme weakness when I am trading short above VWAP. The overall
price action I want to factor in. Basically, I want to capture move2move trades on this
setup.
Down trend day
Will be most likely below 116.50. But even then, I don’t think we’ll get a big 1 ATR
down day. 114.0 likely the next target. I would like to take a TT when we break this
level down on volume.

Catalyst &
Fundamentals
Catalyst: TSLA gapping down 3.3%. 7.7% premarket buzz which is
high.
For Q4 they put out their delivery numbers which was 405k,
below the estimated 420k which was expected by Bloomberg. Still
highest delivery number, but they also opened two production
plants and failed to produce/deliver more.
Float: 2640 million
Institutional Ownership: 44,80%
Short %: 2,67%
ATR: 10,18.
Average Daily volume (50 day): 107 million.
Gap%/Gap ATR: -4% / -0,48 ATR
RVOL: >3

Key levels The inflection level is 118-118.50. Below
this I am more likely short biased.
116.50 is premarket low which should be
significant.
115.50-114. Are also key levels from last
week price action.
Every half dollar will be a psychological
level and show some support/resistance

Trend Trend day
– Trade Strategy
Stock selection
-Stock in play with a significant (technical) catalyst, earnings report or strong theme.
-Elevated RVOL above 3. For stocks with a float > 1 billion above a RVOL> 2 is also good.
Trade2hold factors: extreme weakness and room to trend.
- Holding below significant resistance level: Premarket low and other prior intraday support
areas.
-Weak market.
-Strong catalyst: Mis on delivery numbers.
- Big bicture: extremely weak: down +40% since December high.
- Room to trend on the daily. Large gap until 108,24
- Weak open through resistance (8/10), but not extended (-0,7ATR OD and -0.8ATR low Trend
PB ) = Room to trend intraday.
-Also gap down was 0,5ATR which is not extended.
Trend Trend day
A stock that is setting up to trend intraday the same direction as the long-term trend. Stocks
don’t trend during the open. The trend can end earlier than the close when it already made a
strong move intraday move. Or sometimes a trend day only starts two hours before the close.
Trend day variables/confirmation
-Shallow and consistent volume through out the day.
-Lower highs and higher lows
-5m trends below 20 EMA, 10m trends below 9EMA.
-Expect to close near LOD.

Trend PB - Trade2hold – Trade Management
Trade2hold - Flat
Significant 5m close above 20 EMA:
1) close on above average buying
volume;
2) a new 5m high that occurs after
close;
Goal: don’t sell more than 50%
when going flat.
Reason2hold
-Shallow volume and making lower
highs. Sometimes the trend is still
intact when there’s a significant
close above the 5m 20EMA.
Trade2hold – Exit strategy
-ATR moves: 1ATR, 1,25ATR
or 1,5ATR.
-HTF support levels: 108,27
-Sell into the close near LOD
Trend PB
Entry: After price pulled in 5m 9 or 20 EMA
and after a top has formed on tape:
-We can’t trade higher.
-Tape starts to get heavier.
-Offers are stepping down.
-Stronger bids get taken out.
Risk: At the top of the pullback.

Technical
Analysis:
Trend PB
10m is holding below 9EMA.
5m is holding below 20EMA.
Pullback visible on multiple time
frames: 1m, 5m, 10m.
Bounce of intraday key level:
112
Shallow volume during PB.
Could be better!

Reading the tape
Price action at level of interest/potential top.(10:00)
-First break, no strong follow through.
We break 112 for the first time. Price steps up to ,24 but the offers quickly start to
step down on red prints. Offers then quickly step down to ,10, a level where big
offers were sitting after the break over 112. This is where a potential top could have
been formed.
-First sign of weakness:
For almost 30 seconds we are trading in this small spread, where the offers are not
moving. The bids get thinner and thinner. The upper screenshot is the moment
before we breakdown 112 with a lot of red prints. We skip down immediately to ,80.
-Offers are stepping down below key level: no reclaim
Bids appear at ,80 and we bounce. I would expect a retest of 112 here. Offers step
down below key level. We reclaim to ,03 for 1 second, but quickly trade below 112
again.
-Confirmation
Once the bids at ,70-,80 get slammed, we flush down. This is the confirmation we
get on the tape that the trade starts to work.

Trade management
Entry:
I entered at 87.41, while the low was 86.63. Since I didn’t see
shallow volume, I wanted to wait for that and some consolidation
around the 5m 9EMA. We were very extended from the 5m 20 EMA
so a pullback seemed more likely.
Once I recognized that 112 was an important level intraday and
price was struggling to reclaim 112, I waited for a 5m LL as
confirmation.
The fact that I waited is perhaps good, since not all variables were
there, but the fact that it couldn’t consolidate longer or pull in to
the 20 EMA was probably an extra sign of weakness.
Next time scale in if we are so weak, we can’t even reclaim the 5m
9EMA. I should focus on a closer entry for a stock like this.
Exit:
I wanted to sell for 1 ATR move just above an important key level.
Once we started to consolidate 10 cents above this level and kept
reclaiming 109 psychological level I sold prematurely. I fucked the
exit and puked the trade.
Profit: 1.5R

What was the optimal trade management strategy, in order to minimize risk
when wrong or maximize gain when right?
How did my strategy deviate from the optimal strategy?
I wanted to sell for 1 ATR move just above an important key level. Once we
started to consolidate 10 cents above this level and kept reclaiming 109
psychological level, I sold prematurely. I fucked the exit and puked the trade.
I don’t have enough data for trend trend days. The last trend day I watched did
just over a an 1ATR move. But this was a day without a fundamental catalyst!!
On trend days you expect to close near the LOD!! I did a great job of identifying
the trend day during the open and finding a playbook trade that fits this setup.
But by selling early I threw away a great RR. Even with my mediocre entry, I would
have made 4.6RR by 1PM. Instead of 1.5R I made.
Next time I need to buy at least 2 shares when the signs of a trend day are there. I
don’t think there was anything wrong with my PT which was measured and above
a key level, but I need to be able to practice a trade2hold.
For this setup with a weak catalyst a 1 ATR move too low. For strong stocks I use a
1.25ATR catalyst. That would have been a great target. Or I could have skilled out
at both.
But I must trail a core of the position until EOD when the trend is over. These can
be 5-10R trades when the entry is great

What could I have done
better?
• I want to start to proactively plan for levels of interest that we can
pull back into. I want to write these levels down and be ready to
fight for price when I see it on the tape. This should be intraday
price levels, higher time frames levels, 5m or 10m EMA’s. Now I
will be better prepared for the levels, and I can focus on the tape. I
have added this to my checklist.
• I have added a column on my trade criteria that focus on how I can
trade this 1% better next time. I choose: Don’t puke the trade, sell
at measured move or valid reason2sell. I sold too early, even when
my profit target was too high, I left a lot on the table and should
work on holding for longer durations.
• I also improved my checklist on reading the tape. Once I have
decided to take the trade, I must use this checklist to improve my
entry.