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McDonald’s Business Case Analysis
MacKenzie Winter
BA 301 Final Term Paper
Section005
March 9, 2016
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Table of Contents
Executive Summary.........................................................................................................3
Situation Analysis.............................................................................................................4
Problem Analysis & Description.....................................................................................6
Solutions, Evaluation & Recommendation...................................................................8
Solution #1: Redesign Supply Chain to Include Local Suppliers and Local Food
Culture........................................................................................................................................8
Solution #2: Location, Location, Location; Sale in Customer Convenient
Venues.......................................................................................................................................9
Solution #3: Healthier Food Choices.........................................................................9
Implementation Plan......................................................................................................10
Metric #1 ..........................................................................................................................12
Metric #2 ......................................................................................................................12
Bibliography.....................................................................................................................13
Appendix..........................................................................................................................15
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ExecutiveSummary
McDonald’s (MCD) is a powerhouse within the fast food industry and has been
the most profitable fast-food restaurant in the US since its inception in 1955. It is a
global company that operates and franchises restaurants in over 100 countries, and
until recently it has delivered on its mission to become the "favorite place and way to eat
and drink" for its 69 million customers. Its trademark and brand, the “Golden Arches”
may be the most recognized symbol in the world. But recently, MCD has been
struggling--MCD has been losing market share to competitors such as Yum! Brands
Inc., Compass Group PLC, and Wendy’s Company, and based on a general SWOT
Analysis several threats and weaknesses are exacerbating this decline--such as intense
competition in the industry, labor costs and declining operational performance.
MCD’s market dominance has been built largely on its franchise model,
consistently strong and increasing sales and revenues year over year, and stable
growth in guest traffic counts. But recently, those characteristics that have driven MCD
to the top in this industry are showing stress: MCD’s franchise model is no longer
competitive, its sales and revenues have been declining for several years and guest
traffic counts has been negative.
Accordingly, MCD sales and revenues are suffering (along with its market share),
particularly in the US markets because MCD’s menu of food items is unhealthy and has
a negative reputation for being junk food that contributes to child obesity and diabetes.
To resolve this problem, I recommend MCD change its menu to offer healthier food
options. Solutions to this problem include redesigning the supply chain to include local
suppliers and local food culture, selling in more relevant and customer convenient
venues, and redesigning the MCD menu itself to offer healthier food choices. By using
both a “Weighted Matrix Analysis” and “Cost Benefit Analysis” for each proposed
solution, I determined that the best solution to remedy the problem would be for MCD to
redesign its menu to offer healthier and better quality food options. The SWOT Analysis
also demonstrates that a MCD strength is product innovation suggesting this solution is
a core competency for MCD.
Offering a more transparent menu of healthier food options that includes allergy
sensitive items will appeal to both MCD’s traditional customer base, young parents and
children, as well as millennials. Research shows that families want to eat food that has
less calories and fat in it; millennials want quality healthy food and both customer
groups are willing to pay a little more for that food. Moreover, both these customer
groups are looking for choices and are more aware than ever before of health issues
linked to unhealthy food, and allergy restrictions--a more transparent healthy menu with
allergy sensitive choices will meet this consumer preference.
The solution I have outlined in detail can be implemented generally in two ways:
(i) adding ingredients and new regional food choices (ii) changing the way its food items
are prepared. Although this solution could take as long as 3 years to fully implement, I
have suggested a pilot project in the Pacific Northwest over a 12-month period using
guest count metrics (correlated with sales measures) and customer and public
perception surveys to determine the success of this solution.
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Situation Analysis
Goals, Mission and Vision. MCD is a global company that operates and
franchises restaurants in over 100 countries. Its vision and mission is to become a
modern, progressive burger company that is the "favorite place and way to eat and
drink" for its 69 million customers. To deliver that vision and mission, MCD's strategy is
to optimize the menu with "locally-relevant" quality choices, modernize the customers'
brand experience to increase name recognition and trust in the Golden Arches, and
"broaden accessibility to deliver unparalleled convenience." (McDonald’s Corporation,
McDonald’s 2014 Annual Report; McDonald’s Corporation, McDonald’s Company
Profile). MCD's values are: a positive customer experience; commitment to its people;
belief in the McDonald’s System; operating ethically; giving back to its communities;
growing the business profitably; and, continuous improvement. (McDonald’s
Corporation, McDonald’s Standards of Business Conduct).
Has MCD delivered the beef? MCD had a disappointing fiscal year in 2014. It
experienced a global sales decrease of 1% and operating income declined 8%, even
though it grew system wide sales by 1%. (McDonald’s Corporation, McDonald’s 2014
Annual Report). Unfortunately, based on a recent earnings release filed on its Form 8-K
for the quarter ending 9/30/2015 (filed 10/22/2015) its results worsened: Consolidated
revenues decreased by 5%, consolidated operating income decreased 2% in part driven
by increases in wages and benefits but also declining sales in the United States (US) all
of which resulted in a market share decline.
Early in 2015 MCD initiated a leadership change; new CEO Steve Easterbrook
stepped up to turn MCD around and deliver on its financial promises. There were also
internal promotions of the CFO and Controller to Chief Administrative Officer
respectively. Not surprising, shortly after MCD filed its 10-Q for the quarter ended
9/30/2015, it filed a Form 8-K disclosing material investor information: The McDonald's
Turnaround Plan. The Turnaround Plan highlights how Easterbrook and his team will
deliver its vision, mission, and strategy going forward, noting that MCD expects positive
Q4 sales in all of its segments and operating income consistent with its financial targets;
it calls for increased refranchising targets to achieve a 95% franchise model versus the
current 81%, increasing the Q4 dividend by 5% and issuing medium term notes (debt)
to help finance operational goals.
To date, MCD has delivered on some of its Turnaround promise--it has increased
dividends from $0.85 cents to $0.89 per share and it issued $6,000,000,000 in medium
term notes in December 2015. Since announcing its dividend increase MCD's stock
price increased from about $90 per share to a closing price on 1/22/2016 of about $118
per share with an impressive 5-year increase from about $75 per share in 2011. While
MCD's 2015 Annual Report discloses a slight increase in consolidated sales at 1.5%,
sales were flat in the US, there was a consolidated revenue decrease of 7% and
consolidated operating income decrease of 10% and most notably overall negative
guest traffic in almost all segments globally. (McDonald’s Corporation, McDonald’s 2015
Annual Report). Currently the ratings analysts recommend hold or buy on MCD stock
indicating the market believes MCD may yet deliver the beef. (Morningstar, MCD
McDonald’s Corp Overview).
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Risk Related Exposure; Competition; SWOT. MCD's business model is
primarily based on independent owners of local MCD retail restaurants--i.e., franchises.
Many people are employed through this franchise structure as well as with the corporate
entity, MCD. Based on their most recent Annual Report, it appears they have the usual
legal exposure found in this type of business model but none of which appear to be
material to their financial condition at this time—disputes with their franchisees, food
and other product suppliers, employee related disputes including wage and hour,
discrimination and compliance with employment laws, and some customer disputes
related to products, service and nutritional disclosures. MCD identifies a number of risks
to its business, notably, intense competition, consumer preferences and food safety,
increasing government regulation and the franchise business model itself. (McDonald’s
Corporation, McDonald’s 2015 Annual Report).
With 15.4% of the market share, MCD dominates this industry and clearly leads
the pack in economies of scale and international presence. While its main competition
includes: Yum! Brands Inc. (KFC, Taco Bell, Pizza Hut) with 8.7% markets share,
Compass Group PLC (Subway (5.3%), Papa John's Pizza, Chick-Fil-A and Starbucks
under license) and Wendy's Company (4.1%) none of these competitors come close to
MCD's gross sales and revenues or operating income. Moreover, these 4 companies
hold 33.5% market share while all other companies make up the remaining 66.5% and
all with less than 4.1% of the market. (IBISWorld, Major Companies). Although the
metrics indicate that each of the competitors suffers from similar market forces: intense
competition based on price, and flat or slightly declining revenue and slow growth, it is
notable that MCD is losing market share to some of these competitors and others
(Chick-fil-A at 2.3% and climbing) in the US market. In its efforts to distinguish MCD
from its US competitors, MCD reintroduced "All Day Breakfast" to its menu along with its
continued drive to increase franchises to 95% of its business model. (McDonald’s
Corporation, 8K, 1/23/16). (Appendix A: Competitive Overview)
Although MCD is one of the largest food chains in the world, and arguably has
one of the most recognizable brands in the industry—its Golden Arches—both the U.S.
and global business environment can significantly impact its business and performance
that allows MCD to achieve its objective to become the "favorite place and way to eat
and drink" for its 69 million customers. In particular, MCD is impacted by a variety of
political, economic, social and technological factors such as:
Political pressure from new regulations about labeling nutritional content on their
menus as more statistics on the link between fast food and obesity are revealed.
(Smolarski, Michelle); political activists actively pursue large corporations like MCD to
drive their agendas simultaneous with their legislative goals such as the use of
antibiotics and other drugs in chicken and meat to reduce costs and increase quantities
of supply for the industry. (Baertlein, Lisa; P.J. Huffstutter).
Macro-economic changes in the world impact MCD performance such as
fluctuations in local currency and the slowdown in the Chinese economy. (Greenspan,
Roberta). For example, MCD's focus on expansion in Asia, particularly China has
impacted its revenues: MCD "generally owns and operates its own stores in growing
foreign markets, and that’s generally the case with its Chinese operations, with only
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about one-fifth of Chinese outlets owned by franchisees”, so slow growth more directly
impacts MCD in China with less financial franchise insulation. (Mitchell, Dan).
MCD is a retail business that depends on consumer preference and as such it
must respond to social and cultural changes and demands if it intends to keep and
increase its market share. Factors such as the wealth gap, cultural diversity in food
preferences and healthy lifestyle trends are significant influences on MCD performance.
(Greenspan, Roberta).
While MCD does not appear to be a cutting edge techno company, it does rely
heavily on Techno-Science to make its food. For example, Cargill one of its main
suppliers, tests out new technology to make its most popular item French fries. Further,
improvements in this technology can impact the way MCD serves its customers,
including self-serve kiosks that are currently employed by some locations. (Hung,
Dennis). (Appendix B: SWOT Analysis)
Problem Analysis & Description
Critical Issues Facing MCD. Based on the Situation Analysis, it is clear that
MCD is facing several issues including: intense industry competition based on price and
its current franchise model, declining sales and revenues particularly in its US market,
and negative guest counts, all resulting in a market share decline over the last several
years: MCD has lost market share in its largest market the United States (US) since
2014--(2014 US market share 17% vs. 15.4% in 2015). (McDonald’s Corporation,
McDonald’s 2014 Annual Report; McDonald’s Corporation, McDonald’s 2015 Annual
Report).
Symptom/Gap: McDonald’s is currently 80% franchised and needs to reach 95%
by 2018--to reach this goal it needs to refranchise about 4,000 restaurants based on its
2014 mix. In 2014 and 2015, it had refranchised 400 and 470 restaurants respectively
towards the needed 4000 new franchises. To reach 95% over the next 3 years, it will
need to refranchise over 1,000 restaurants per year, a performance increase of over
200% over the next 3 years. It seems unlikely that MCD will be able to reach a 95%
franchise model by 2018.
Root Causes. MCD's franchise costs are higher than many of its competitors. To
acquire a MCD franchise an applicant must provide $500K in liquid capital which may
be cost prohibitive—this likely contributes to the slow pace of achieving new franchises.
Root Cause. In addition to the high buy in fee, Franchisees rent and lease
equipment and land from MCD and pay a percentage of sales (e.g.4%) to MCD
monthly. Franchisees may not want to invest in a franchise and brand that has been
under fire in recent years due to the nature of the food they sale and the traditional
market they target. The public and political activists like Corporate Accountability
International have become increasingly concerned that MCD "uses clowns and toys to
sell unhealthy food to impressionable children. [and they want MCD to] stop making the
next generation sick [by retiring] Ronald and the rest of [its] junk food marketing to kids".
(Rooney, Ben).
Symptom/Gap: MCD has targeted positive sales and revenues since FYE 2014.
In contrast, MCD has experienced a 7% decline in revenue in 2015. The 2014 YE
revenue result was approximately $27 million while the 2015 YE revenue result was
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approximately $25 million. While consolidated sales increased year over year 1.5%, it
remained flat in MCD's key US market. (McDonald’s Corporation, McDonald’s 2015
Annual Report).
Root Causes. MCD's US sales have declined in recent years or remained flat.
MCD's traditional menu is largely made up of "junk food." That menu is not retaining its
traditional target customers (young families with children) nor is it attracting the new
millennial market segment that appear to want "fresh and healthy" food. Customers
perceive that other fast food franchises are offering healthier food, such as Chipotle,
Five Guys, and Panera Bread. Accordingly, sales particularly in the US are declining.
Root Cause. MCD has traditionally provided customers with a cheap, fast and
convenient food source. Its product has been comprised of low cost ingredients, i.e.,
cheap ingredients and high caloric fats and carbohydrates, and to reach economies of
scale, supply chains that are able to provide mass quantities of key ingredients such as
bread, beef and chicken to central facilities that can distribute to its global retailers
timely. But, customers are increasingly demanding better quality food
Root Cause. MCD has suffered some reputational and brand damage over the
quality of its food, particularly its meat, and its treatment of employees. In one instance
a meat supplier Husi Food Co., Ltd. sold MCD expired meat in China, resulting in
declining sales and revenues that have just recently started to come back in China but
not Japan. MCD has also been involved in labor issues regarding low wages and poor
work conditions at its own stores contributing to negative public perceptions and further
damaging sales particularly in the US market but also in some European markets.
(Sheffield, Hazel; Temple, Ron).
Symptom/Gap: MCD’s has reported that consolidated guest counts have been
negative in 2015 and declined 2.3%. Guest counts are the amount of customer traffic in
same stores over a period of time. Generally, guest counts were expected to rise
slightly or stay flat in 2015. (McDonald’s Corporation, McDonald’s 2015 Annual Report).
Root Cause. Customers, particularly in the US have a "do-it-yourself health"
focus—they want to customize their food orders to meet their personal health needs. As
food sensitivities rise, parents increasingly need to address allergies such as gluten
intolerance. Guest count declines may also be due to target customers gravitating to
MCD competitors that offer more customizable menu options, like Subway, Panera
Bread and Chipotle Mexican Grill. (Wolf, Barney).
Roots Cause. MCD's target segment customers are children, youth and young
urban parents. (McDonald’s Corporation, McDonald’s 2014 Annual Report). In recent
years, MCDs customer demographics show signs of a decline in its family segment. "By
mid-2014, families with a child age 12 or under accounted for 14.6% of [MCD's} visitors,
from 18.6% in 2011". (Bertagnoli, Lisa).
Root Cause. Guest count declines may be due to location of MCD franchises and
company owned stores. Fast food is by definition intended to be convenient; if MCD's
target customers are young families and children, MCD locations as stand-alone
facilities with large play structures may not be the convenience customers are seeking
in 2015 and going forward. Young working parents have limited time and are likely
looking for fast value and healthy food in spaces they already visit—schools, health
facilities, church events, grocery and other value merchandise stores. (Wolf, Barney).
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In sum, MCD is facing intense industry competition based on price and its current
franchise model, declining sales and revenues particularly in its US market, and
negative guest counts, all resulting in a market share decline over the last several
years.
Single Problem: MCD unhealthy food menu is not attracting its traditional
targeted customers causing declining sales and revenues resulting in a loss of market
share: (2014 US market share 17% vs. 15.4% in 2015).
Solutions,Evaluation & Recommendation
Problem discussion. As noted in the Problem Analysis above, MCD's problem
is an unhealthy food menu that is driving its traditional customers to other fast food
options. Historically, MCD has created its market power by offering fast, cheap,
convenient and filling food--more negatively referred to as “junk food.” MCD to become
the dominant player in the fast food industry, its products have been comprised of low
cost ingredients (cheap ingredients with high caloric fats and carbohydrates), and, to
reach economies of scale, supply chains that are able to provide mass quantities of key
ingredients such as bread, beef and chicken to central facilities that can distribute to its
global retailers timely. But, customers are increasingly demanding better quality and
healthier fast food. (ACSI: Customer Satisfaction Steady for Full-Service Restaurants;
Fast Food Declines as Consumers With More Purchasing Power Prefer Quality Over
Price).
Weighted Matrix Analysis: Criteria and Weighting.
To resolve MCD's problem, any solution that creates a fast food menu that will
retain its traditional key customer base and attract new customer segments needs to be
evaluated as to how well it increases sales and revenues by both retaining traditional
customers and attracting new customers. Accordingly, solutions need to be evaluated
against the criterion, and cumulatively weighted to a total of 1 as follows: Positive
impact on (I) sales (0.30), (ii) customer preference (0.25), (iii) brand enhancement
(0.15), (iv) public opinion (0.10) and (v) franchise desirability (0.20).
Solution #1: Redesign Supply Chain to Include Local Suppliers and Local
Food Culture
MCDs needs to change its menu by incorporating local suppliers and the local
food culture into its logistics and supply chain; It needs to provide menu options that are
both reflective of each franchise region but that also capitalize on the fresh food
available in the local supplier and farmer markets. By using local suppliers and farmers
MCD would also participate in the local economy and help the local economies grow,
which in turn could enhance its brand and improve its public image at the same time as
addressing the increasing desire for fresher food options expressed by its customers,
particularly in the US. Although moving towards a more localized supplier menu with
more local cuisine choices is likely to increase MCD’s operational costs, I believe
MCD’s current market power along with the strength of its balance sheet should allow it
to find efficiencies in this more decentralized food delivery model. In the long run, this
solution will generate a broader range of customers looking for this new fast food
experience which should result in more sales and increased revenues. Regional
customers will recognize MCD's support of its local food economy and more readily
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identify with the food menu attracting both its traditional customers as well as
"millennials" who are shaping the way we eat. These millennials want to eat local and
support local economies: "50 percent of millennials refer to themselves as “foodies,” but
60 percent of those self-identified foodies still visit fast-food restaurants at least once a
week (compared with 48 percent for older adults). (Carman, Tim; Contreras, Tricia).
If MCD’s fresh local supplier farm menu can keep its young family and children
customer base, and attract these millennials, it should be competitive with other fast
food businesses because this will result in a more locally driven and sourced menu that
will generate more customers and more sales; it should also create more desire for
MCD franchises and thus create more MCD revenues, all of which should translate into
more market share. (Appendix C: Solution 1 Chart: Benefits and Costs)
Solution #2: Location, Location, Location; Sale in Customer Convenient
Venues.
MCD needs to target the young family segment and the millennials by
establishing franchise locations in which families and millennials frequent and want to
spend their discretionary food dollars. (Wolf, Barney). That is, MCD needs to bring its
menu to the schools, and other community locations like churches, health care facilities,
local farmers and craft markets, and recreational and entertainment locations like film
and theaters that it has not traditionally penetrated, particularly due to their “junk food”
image. To access these target customers, MCD needs to get into the schools, health
care venues, food and value chain stores, local craft and food markets, and recreational
and entertainment facilities with franchise opportunities. Some of these locations are
often government or government sponsored (schools and some health care facilities), or
non-profit organizations (local craft and food markets and theaters) that are often
economically strapped and may welcome a franchise type of partnership with MCD to
bring in new revenue streams. To further reach out to millennials, MCD needs to also
establish locations that are primarily focused on this customer group--high traffic, urban
areas with communal facilities and internet access. In sum, this solution will focus on
the convenience of MCD's fast food option for its traditional and new millennial
customers. These customers will find it easy to spend their discretionary dollars at the
locations in which they already frequent and accordingly, this solution should create a
new menu that will drive sales and increase franchise revenues, and ultimately increase
MCD's market share in the fast-food industry. (Appendix D: Solution 2 Chart: Benefits
and Costs)
Solution #3: Healthier Food Choices
MCDs needs to change its menu by offering healthier food choices--it needs to
provide its franchisees with sustainable chicken and beef, and fresh vegetables and
fruits all free of additives, antibiotics, and other artificial components to compete with
threats from Starbucks, Chick-fil-A, fresh Mexican options and subway. (Wolf, Barney).
MCD must reduce the caloric content of its menu choices and use more “real food” and
local cuisine that is not always breaded, fried and high in calorie. In particular, it needs
to redesign its salad options to add more vegetables and fruits to its menu. (Landers,
Sarah, McDonald's fails at healthy food, makes kale salad WORSE than a Double Big
Mac). The US food trend is clearly towards healthier choices as can be seen in the farm
to table movement, and drive for less fat and sugar in school food options. It is not
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enough for MCD to offer local cultural choices, like the McLobster in New England or
the McSpaghetti in the Philippines, under its old centralized frozen food model. As part
of its drive for a healthier menu, MCD needs to show its customers a menu that
provides transparency about the food, e.g., tags that identify food sensitivities (both
allergies and vegetarian requirements) as well as calorie and fat content information,
and sustainable practices. Both young families and millennials (the customers it needs
to retain and attract) are looking for a new fast food dining experience--lower but
reasonable cost, but most importantly healthier choices. MCD needs to appeal to these
target customers by making their food have less calories and fat, and more protein. This
new marketing solution should also promote the new brand reputation as well as attract
more franchisees. As customer guest traffic increases, sales should also increase and
drive revenues which should ultimately drive MCD’s market share up in the fast-food
industry. (Appendix E: Solution 3 Chart: Benefits and Costs) (Appendix F: Weighted
Matrix Analysis)
The Solution: The solution I have decided to go with is to develop a menu that
provides healthier more transparent food choices. A shift to healthier menu options
should bring both its traditional market of young families back, as well as attract new
non-traditional millennial customers to its franchises and stores, resulting in increased
sales and revenues and ultimately more market share. This healthier menu will provide
allergy sensitive options, food that has less calories and fat, and higher quality and
sustainable protein. MCD also needs to be transparent about their food by displaying
calorie and fat content information under each item. The target customer base (young
families and millennials) are willing to spend a little more for healthier food and want to
support their community economies. (Carman, Tim).
As important, this solution also supports MCD's values and business ethics:
"operating ethically; giving back to its communities..." Healthier food options address
their customer’s health needs as well as financial needs, and shows that MCD cares
about their customers by making sure they’re eating healthy and are aware of what
they’re eating. Creating transparent menus that show its customers the caloric, fat and
other contents of those new fresh fruits, vegetables and sustainable protein options, as
well as having items on the menu that are allergy free should make customers feel safe
eating MCD food, and it will show MCD is a good corporate citizen by being on the
forefront of both FDA regulatory concerns about drug laden protein, and in responding
to political food activists groups demands for healthier fast food choices.
ImplementationPlan
The solution can be implemented in two general ways: (i) adding ingredients and
new regional food choices (ii) changing the way its food items are prepared. This plan
will likely take two to three years to fully implement but I suggest a pilot 12-month
project that targets a particular region--the Pacific Northwest (PNW) and measure its
success on a year over year basis for that region. Thereafter, if successful MCD can
implement by targeting US regions to fully implement using the plan it created for the
PNW over the next two years.
Step 1 (Month 1): Target Facilities.
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Identify selected franchises and stores within the PNW that will implement the
solution. MCD would need to alert its current company stores and franchisees by area
within the PNW about the new food menu changes.
Step 2: (Months 1-3): Sourcing and Preparation.
MCD will need to establish regional supply chains for fruits and vegetables, and
sustainable beef and chicken that do not need to be flash frozen, as well as design
some selected menu options that will incorporate those healthier food ingredients. MCD
will also need to adjust other traditional menu options to be healthier; to do this, it will
need to change the ratio of ingredients in its traditional menu to cook with less fat and
use better sources of fat, such as better cholesterol frying ingredients, like olive, canola,
avocado and coconut oil. MCD will also need to add some allergy sensitive ingredient
options—generally some non-dairy and gluten free options that will require instituting
new procedures and designating selected areas for preparing those items to ensure
customers of the integrity of their allergy sensitive choices. It will also need to work with
its current suppliers and add new regional supply contracts to source the new
ingredients through traditional and new channels.
Facility Redesign. MCD will likely need to address facility design at its current
facilities and for all new facilities to ensure that they have the proper amount of space
and equipment to efficiently make allergy sensitive food uncontaminated by MCD’s
other menu options.
Marketing and Branding. This solution will also require a new marketing plan to
achieve its goal of becoming its customers “favorite place and way to eat and drink".
MCD will need to move away from attracting its customers with toys and a clown and
move towards branding based on fresh, healthy, convenient and reasonably priced fast
food. This step will also need to include an advertising campaign that should include
social media as well as MCD’s traditional forms of advertising.
Materials and Documentation Preparation. MCD will need to revise or create
new public and internal communications to explain this solution and to prepare
franchisors and employees for the transition--a communication plan for the PNW
solution. This step should also develop a customer and a public perception survey for
use after initiation of the solution. It is likely to also include some new contracts and
other legal documents to implement.
Step 3: Month 4): Franchisee, Manager and Employee
Preparation. Execute communication plan and initiate franchisee and employee
retraining to understand the new menu, manage the preparation, and effectively market
the new menu to its current customers.
Step 4: (Months 4-6) Ad Campaign Rollout. Roll out the social media, T.V,
radio and other mediums as planned.
Step 5 (Month 6-12): Initiate Solution. All selected franchises and stores
introduce new menu and begin testing against the pre-established metrics. Begin MCD
internal audit to assess compliance with new menu options, and process and
procedures to ensure that all pilot franchises and stores are following the new menu,
food processes and communication procedures.
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Success Metrics
The solution and plan I have developed (to improve the health of MCD’s menu)
should increase guest counts by retaining and attracting MCD’s target customers and
result in better sales and revenues at its franchises and company stores. To determine
the success of this solution MCD will need to measure monthly for the 6-month period
beginning with initiation and compare it to the same 6-month period the prior 2 years for
these targeted franchises and stores: guest traffic counts and customer perception.
Metric #1
The fast food industry has some traditional tools for measuring success. One of
these is guest traffic count. MCD needs to track by franchise and store guests counts on
a monthly basis for the 6-month period the PNW solution is initiated and compare with
guest counts for this same period on a monthly basis for the same 6-month period in the
prior 2 fiscal years at these franchises and stores. If guest traffic count increases year
over year for the 6-month period, MCD can infer that its new menu has had a positive
impact. Similarly, sales from the increased guest traffic can be compared with sales for
the prior two fiscal years during the same 6-month period allowing MCD to also
determine if increased guest traffic has positively impacted sales.
Guest counts, and sales, should also be correlated with sales at the targeted
franchises and stores, and could be compared with similarly situated franchises and
stores in the PNW that did not participate in the new menu pilot project. If sales and
guest counts are higher than last year’s results at the same time in the targeted PNW
stores versus similarly situated franchises and stores, than MCD can infer that its new
menu has successfully increased both guest count and sales and may be its solution to
positive guest counts in US markets, and potentially increased sales and revenues
going forward as it implements its plan across all US regions over the next two years.
Metric #2
MCD should execute two surveys: One for customers that buy food at its PNW
franchises and stores, and a separate survey for public perception at large in the PNW.
The customer survey should measure customer reaction to the new menu and evaluate
customer preference for the new food items. This survey should be provided to every
customer in each targeted franchise and store for the 6-month test period, and analyzed
monthly. Customers should be incented to complete the survey somewhat like a loyalty
program--points for completing the survey will earn free or discounts on additional food.
MCD should also survey the public at large as well as monitor public opinion
through news reports, industry analyst’s reviews and food activists’ responses to
evaluate the positive or negative perception of its changes. Public surveys can be
outsourced to a third party and delivered twice, at the beginning of the PNW new menu
pilot project and at the end of the 6-month period to determine movement in the
perception.
All surveys should use a variety of mediums such as internet, hard copy and/or
telephone, to accommodate as many responses as possible. MCD should invite public
discourse when possible to generate as much “buzz” about its new approach as it can
to better assess the success of this solution. Positive evaluations and perceptions of the
new menu should provide some measure of whether this solution meets the needs of its
customers and increase sales.
Page 13 of 20
Bibliography
“ACSI: Customer Satisfaction Steady for Full-Service Restaurants; Fast Food
Declines as Consumers With More Purchasing Power Prefer Quality Over Price”
American Customer Satisfaction Index. American Customer Satisfaction Index,
30 June 2015. Web. 23 Feb. 2016.
Baertlein, Lisa; P.J. Huffstutter. “KFC faces pressure after McDonald's says no
antibiotics in chicken.” Reuters.12 March. 2015. Web. 27 Jan. 2016.
Bertagnoli, Lisa. “McDonald's has a new generational problem: kids”. Crain’s Chicago
Business. 6 Sept. 2014. Web. 9 March 2016.
Burkitt, Laurie. “Business News: McDonald's and KFC Using Mobile To Speed Up the
Fast Food in China.” ProQuest 266.4 (6 July, 2015): B3. Web. 27 Jan. 2016.
Carman, Tim. “For millennials, food isn’t just food. It’s community”. The Washington
Post. 22 Oct. 2013. Web. 9 March 2016.
Contreras, Tricia. “Millennials seek local foods that offer a sense of place”. SmartBrief,
SmartBlogs. 3 Dec. 2014. Web. 9 March 2016.
Frost, Peter. “McDonald's CEO Don Thompson is out.” Crain’s Chicago Business.
Crain’s Chicago Business Mag., 28 Jan. 2015. Web. 2 Feb. 2016.
Greenspan, Roberta. “McDonald’s PESTEL/PESTLE Analysis & Recommendations.”
Panmore Institute. 11 Oct. 2015. Web. 27 Jan. 2016.
Hung, Dennis. “McDonald’s New Kiosks May Impact Its Huge Workforce.” Tech.Co. 21
Dec. 2015. Web. 27 Jan. 2016.
IBISWorld. “Industry Outlook.” IBISWorld. n.d. Web. 27. Jan. 2016.
IBISWorld. “Major Companies.” IBISWorld. n.d. Web. 27 Jan. 2016.
Kowitt, Beth. “Fallen Arches: Can McDonald's get its mojo back?” Fortune 500. Fortune
500 Mag., 12 Nov. 2014. Web. 2 Feb. 2016.
Landers, Sarah. “McDonald's fails at healthy food, makes kale salad WORSE than a
Double Big Mac.” Natural News. Natural News, 12 Feb. 2016. Web. 23 Feb.
2016.
Maze, Johnathan. “Industry experts: McDonald's turnaround will be tough.” Nation’s
Restaurant News. Nation’s Restaurant News, 29 Jan. 2015. Web. 23 Feb. 2016.
Page 14 of 20
McDonald’s Corporation. “8K” McDonald’s Corporation. 25 Jan. 2016. Web. 27 Jan.
2016.
McDonald’s Corporation. “Franchising Frequently Asked Questions.” McDonald’s
Corporation. n.d. Web. 23 Feb. 2016.
McDonald’s Corporation. “McDonald’s 2014 Annual Report.” McDonald’s Corporation.
24 Feb. 2015. Web. 27. Jan. 2016.
McDonald’s Corporation. “McDonalds Company Profile”. McDonald’s Corporation. n.d.
Web. 27 Jan. 2016.
McDonald’s Corporation. “McDonald’s Standards of Business Conduct.” McDonald’s
Corporation. Oct. 2013. Web. 27 Jan. 2016.
Mitchell, Dan. “Here's how Big Food was affected by the stock market plunge.” Fortune
500. 24 Aug. 2015. Web. 27 Jan. 2016.
Morningstar. “MCD McDonald’s Corp Overview.” Morningstar. n.d. Web. 27 Jan. 2016.
Morrison, Maureen. “McDonald's Has a Millennial Problem.” Advertising Age.
Advertising Age, 25 March 2013. Web. 23 Feb. 2016.
O’Brien, Robyn. “Have McDonald’s Golden Arches Lost Their Shine?”. Robyn O’Brien.
30 Jan. 2015. Web. 9 March 2016.
Rooney, Ben. “Junk food foes to McDonald's: Retire Ronald!” CNNMoney. 8 May 2011.
Web. 9 March 2016.
Sheffield, Hazel. “McDonald’s workers strike over pay – just weeks after a payrise was
announced”. Independent. 15 April 2015. Web. 9 March 2016.
Smolarski, Michelle. “World Health Organization Study Proves Need for Regulation of
Fast Food Industries.” foodtank. 27 Aug. 2015. Web. 27 Jan. 2016.
Temple, Ron. “Going Nowhere Fast at McDonald’s”. The Huffington Post. 23 July 2014.
Web. 9 March 2016.
Wolf, Barney. “9 Fast Food Trends for 2016.” QSR. Journalistic Inc., Jan. 2016. Web.
23 Feb. 2016.
Wong, Venessa. “McDonald's New Social Impact Goals Target Salt, Sugar, and Fat.”
Bloomberg Business. 1 May. 2014. Web. 27 Jan. 2016.
Page 15 of 20
Appendix
Appendix A. Source: IBISWorld
Competitor Comparison
Company Franchised Annual Sales Revenue Operating Income
McDonalds 81% 34,631,000 (-2.3%) 8,597,000 (-0.6%) 3,455,000 (-1.9%)
Yum! 80%+ 19,585,000 (-1.7%) 2,303,000 (-12.4%) 472,000 (-18.3%)
Subway 100% 11,938,000 (-2.6%)
Unknown (private
company; no public
disclosure)
1,265,000 (-1.7%)
Wendy's 85% 9,151,000 (1.8%) 1,824,600 (1.6%) 246,700 (12.5%)
Page 16 of 20
Appendix B. Source: Global Markets Direct SWOT Reports
Page 17 of 20
Appendix C.
Tangible Benefits
Sales increase
Revenue increase
A higher volume of customers
Tangible Costs
Buying food from local farmers is likely to increase costs
Negative inventory/impact on financials
Costs to retrain employees with new menus
Potential loss of economies of scale
Intangible Benefits
Improved brand image
Positive exposure to potential franchisees
New expanded pool of markets
Healthier customers
Taking customers away from the competition
Good press; potentially improved public image
Helping local communities and local economy
Intangible Costs
Time to find new suppliers
Creating a new menu
Potential stress of cooks/cashiers from new menu items
Page 18 of 20
Appendix D.
Tangible Benefits
Increased number of customers
Increased sales
New franchise locations
Tangible Costs
The cost of new infastructure
Hiring new employees/managers
New equipment costs
New property costs
Extra food costs
Costs to file paperwork on new franchises
Tangible Benefits
Fulfilling promises of more franchisees
More family food locations
More public exposure
Providing food to a broader segment of customers
Intangible Costs
Lost time if plan isn't successful
Bad public exposure
A decline in public health
Page 19 of 20
Appendix E.
Tangible Benefits
Increased number of customers
Increased sales
Increased guest counts
Tangible Costs
Food costs
Retraining employees/managers
Test product costs
New menu costs
New equipment costs
Intangible Benefits
Positive public exposure
Promoting health in the community
Providing food to a broader range of customers
Improved brand image
Intangible Costs
Potential failed food products
Employee/manager stress from new menu items
Lost time if plan isn't successful
Page 20 of 20
Appendix F.
Weight Solution 1 Solution 2 Solution 3
Revenue Increase 0.3 8 2.4 8 2.4 8 2.4
Customer Preference 0.25 8 2 8 2 9 2.25
Brand Enhancement 0.15 7 1.05 7 1.05 8 1.2
Public Opinion 0.1 6 0.6 6 0.6 8 0.8
Franchise Desirability 0.2 7 1.4 8 1.6 8 1.6
1 7.45 7.65 8.25

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McDonald's Term Paper

  • 1. Page 1 of 20 McDonald’s Business Case Analysis MacKenzie Winter BA 301 Final Term Paper Section005 March 9, 2016
  • 2. Page 2 of 20 Table of Contents Executive Summary.........................................................................................................3 Situation Analysis.............................................................................................................4 Problem Analysis & Description.....................................................................................6 Solutions, Evaluation & Recommendation...................................................................8 Solution #1: Redesign Supply Chain to Include Local Suppliers and Local Food Culture........................................................................................................................................8 Solution #2: Location, Location, Location; Sale in Customer Convenient Venues.......................................................................................................................................9 Solution #3: Healthier Food Choices.........................................................................9 Implementation Plan......................................................................................................10 Metric #1 ..........................................................................................................................12 Metric #2 ......................................................................................................................12 Bibliography.....................................................................................................................13 Appendix..........................................................................................................................15
  • 3. Page 3 of 20 ExecutiveSummary McDonald’s (MCD) is a powerhouse within the fast food industry and has been the most profitable fast-food restaurant in the US since its inception in 1955. It is a global company that operates and franchises restaurants in over 100 countries, and until recently it has delivered on its mission to become the "favorite place and way to eat and drink" for its 69 million customers. Its trademark and brand, the “Golden Arches” may be the most recognized symbol in the world. But recently, MCD has been struggling--MCD has been losing market share to competitors such as Yum! Brands Inc., Compass Group PLC, and Wendy’s Company, and based on a general SWOT Analysis several threats and weaknesses are exacerbating this decline--such as intense competition in the industry, labor costs and declining operational performance. MCD’s market dominance has been built largely on its franchise model, consistently strong and increasing sales and revenues year over year, and stable growth in guest traffic counts. But recently, those characteristics that have driven MCD to the top in this industry are showing stress: MCD’s franchise model is no longer competitive, its sales and revenues have been declining for several years and guest traffic counts has been negative. Accordingly, MCD sales and revenues are suffering (along with its market share), particularly in the US markets because MCD’s menu of food items is unhealthy and has a negative reputation for being junk food that contributes to child obesity and diabetes. To resolve this problem, I recommend MCD change its menu to offer healthier food options. Solutions to this problem include redesigning the supply chain to include local suppliers and local food culture, selling in more relevant and customer convenient venues, and redesigning the MCD menu itself to offer healthier food choices. By using both a “Weighted Matrix Analysis” and “Cost Benefit Analysis” for each proposed solution, I determined that the best solution to remedy the problem would be for MCD to redesign its menu to offer healthier and better quality food options. The SWOT Analysis also demonstrates that a MCD strength is product innovation suggesting this solution is a core competency for MCD. Offering a more transparent menu of healthier food options that includes allergy sensitive items will appeal to both MCD’s traditional customer base, young parents and children, as well as millennials. Research shows that families want to eat food that has less calories and fat in it; millennials want quality healthy food and both customer groups are willing to pay a little more for that food. Moreover, both these customer groups are looking for choices and are more aware than ever before of health issues linked to unhealthy food, and allergy restrictions--a more transparent healthy menu with allergy sensitive choices will meet this consumer preference. The solution I have outlined in detail can be implemented generally in two ways: (i) adding ingredients and new regional food choices (ii) changing the way its food items are prepared. Although this solution could take as long as 3 years to fully implement, I have suggested a pilot project in the Pacific Northwest over a 12-month period using guest count metrics (correlated with sales measures) and customer and public perception surveys to determine the success of this solution.
  • 4. Page 4 of 20 Situation Analysis Goals, Mission and Vision. MCD is a global company that operates and franchises restaurants in over 100 countries. Its vision and mission is to become a modern, progressive burger company that is the "favorite place and way to eat and drink" for its 69 million customers. To deliver that vision and mission, MCD's strategy is to optimize the menu with "locally-relevant" quality choices, modernize the customers' brand experience to increase name recognition and trust in the Golden Arches, and "broaden accessibility to deliver unparalleled convenience." (McDonald’s Corporation, McDonald’s 2014 Annual Report; McDonald’s Corporation, McDonald’s Company Profile). MCD's values are: a positive customer experience; commitment to its people; belief in the McDonald’s System; operating ethically; giving back to its communities; growing the business profitably; and, continuous improvement. (McDonald’s Corporation, McDonald’s Standards of Business Conduct). Has MCD delivered the beef? MCD had a disappointing fiscal year in 2014. It experienced a global sales decrease of 1% and operating income declined 8%, even though it grew system wide sales by 1%. (McDonald’s Corporation, McDonald’s 2014 Annual Report). Unfortunately, based on a recent earnings release filed on its Form 8-K for the quarter ending 9/30/2015 (filed 10/22/2015) its results worsened: Consolidated revenues decreased by 5%, consolidated operating income decreased 2% in part driven by increases in wages and benefits but also declining sales in the United States (US) all of which resulted in a market share decline. Early in 2015 MCD initiated a leadership change; new CEO Steve Easterbrook stepped up to turn MCD around and deliver on its financial promises. There were also internal promotions of the CFO and Controller to Chief Administrative Officer respectively. Not surprising, shortly after MCD filed its 10-Q for the quarter ended 9/30/2015, it filed a Form 8-K disclosing material investor information: The McDonald's Turnaround Plan. The Turnaround Plan highlights how Easterbrook and his team will deliver its vision, mission, and strategy going forward, noting that MCD expects positive Q4 sales in all of its segments and operating income consistent with its financial targets; it calls for increased refranchising targets to achieve a 95% franchise model versus the current 81%, increasing the Q4 dividend by 5% and issuing medium term notes (debt) to help finance operational goals. To date, MCD has delivered on some of its Turnaround promise--it has increased dividends from $0.85 cents to $0.89 per share and it issued $6,000,000,000 in medium term notes in December 2015. Since announcing its dividend increase MCD's stock price increased from about $90 per share to a closing price on 1/22/2016 of about $118 per share with an impressive 5-year increase from about $75 per share in 2011. While MCD's 2015 Annual Report discloses a slight increase in consolidated sales at 1.5%, sales were flat in the US, there was a consolidated revenue decrease of 7% and consolidated operating income decrease of 10% and most notably overall negative guest traffic in almost all segments globally. (McDonald’s Corporation, McDonald’s 2015 Annual Report). Currently the ratings analysts recommend hold or buy on MCD stock indicating the market believes MCD may yet deliver the beef. (Morningstar, MCD McDonald’s Corp Overview).
  • 5. Page 5 of 20 Risk Related Exposure; Competition; SWOT. MCD's business model is primarily based on independent owners of local MCD retail restaurants--i.e., franchises. Many people are employed through this franchise structure as well as with the corporate entity, MCD. Based on their most recent Annual Report, it appears they have the usual legal exposure found in this type of business model but none of which appear to be material to their financial condition at this time—disputes with their franchisees, food and other product suppliers, employee related disputes including wage and hour, discrimination and compliance with employment laws, and some customer disputes related to products, service and nutritional disclosures. MCD identifies a number of risks to its business, notably, intense competition, consumer preferences and food safety, increasing government regulation and the franchise business model itself. (McDonald’s Corporation, McDonald’s 2015 Annual Report). With 15.4% of the market share, MCD dominates this industry and clearly leads the pack in economies of scale and international presence. While its main competition includes: Yum! Brands Inc. (KFC, Taco Bell, Pizza Hut) with 8.7% markets share, Compass Group PLC (Subway (5.3%), Papa John's Pizza, Chick-Fil-A and Starbucks under license) and Wendy's Company (4.1%) none of these competitors come close to MCD's gross sales and revenues or operating income. Moreover, these 4 companies hold 33.5% market share while all other companies make up the remaining 66.5% and all with less than 4.1% of the market. (IBISWorld, Major Companies). Although the metrics indicate that each of the competitors suffers from similar market forces: intense competition based on price, and flat or slightly declining revenue and slow growth, it is notable that MCD is losing market share to some of these competitors and others (Chick-fil-A at 2.3% and climbing) in the US market. In its efforts to distinguish MCD from its US competitors, MCD reintroduced "All Day Breakfast" to its menu along with its continued drive to increase franchises to 95% of its business model. (McDonald’s Corporation, 8K, 1/23/16). (Appendix A: Competitive Overview) Although MCD is one of the largest food chains in the world, and arguably has one of the most recognizable brands in the industry—its Golden Arches—both the U.S. and global business environment can significantly impact its business and performance that allows MCD to achieve its objective to become the "favorite place and way to eat and drink" for its 69 million customers. In particular, MCD is impacted by a variety of political, economic, social and technological factors such as: Political pressure from new regulations about labeling nutritional content on their menus as more statistics on the link between fast food and obesity are revealed. (Smolarski, Michelle); political activists actively pursue large corporations like MCD to drive their agendas simultaneous with their legislative goals such as the use of antibiotics and other drugs in chicken and meat to reduce costs and increase quantities of supply for the industry. (Baertlein, Lisa; P.J. Huffstutter). Macro-economic changes in the world impact MCD performance such as fluctuations in local currency and the slowdown in the Chinese economy. (Greenspan, Roberta). For example, MCD's focus on expansion in Asia, particularly China has impacted its revenues: MCD "generally owns and operates its own stores in growing foreign markets, and that’s generally the case with its Chinese operations, with only
  • 6. Page 6 of 20 about one-fifth of Chinese outlets owned by franchisees”, so slow growth more directly impacts MCD in China with less financial franchise insulation. (Mitchell, Dan). MCD is a retail business that depends on consumer preference and as such it must respond to social and cultural changes and demands if it intends to keep and increase its market share. Factors such as the wealth gap, cultural diversity in food preferences and healthy lifestyle trends are significant influences on MCD performance. (Greenspan, Roberta). While MCD does not appear to be a cutting edge techno company, it does rely heavily on Techno-Science to make its food. For example, Cargill one of its main suppliers, tests out new technology to make its most popular item French fries. Further, improvements in this technology can impact the way MCD serves its customers, including self-serve kiosks that are currently employed by some locations. (Hung, Dennis). (Appendix B: SWOT Analysis) Problem Analysis & Description Critical Issues Facing MCD. Based on the Situation Analysis, it is clear that MCD is facing several issues including: intense industry competition based on price and its current franchise model, declining sales and revenues particularly in its US market, and negative guest counts, all resulting in a market share decline over the last several years: MCD has lost market share in its largest market the United States (US) since 2014--(2014 US market share 17% vs. 15.4% in 2015). (McDonald’s Corporation, McDonald’s 2014 Annual Report; McDonald’s Corporation, McDonald’s 2015 Annual Report). Symptom/Gap: McDonald’s is currently 80% franchised and needs to reach 95% by 2018--to reach this goal it needs to refranchise about 4,000 restaurants based on its 2014 mix. In 2014 and 2015, it had refranchised 400 and 470 restaurants respectively towards the needed 4000 new franchises. To reach 95% over the next 3 years, it will need to refranchise over 1,000 restaurants per year, a performance increase of over 200% over the next 3 years. It seems unlikely that MCD will be able to reach a 95% franchise model by 2018. Root Causes. MCD's franchise costs are higher than many of its competitors. To acquire a MCD franchise an applicant must provide $500K in liquid capital which may be cost prohibitive—this likely contributes to the slow pace of achieving new franchises. Root Cause. In addition to the high buy in fee, Franchisees rent and lease equipment and land from MCD and pay a percentage of sales (e.g.4%) to MCD monthly. Franchisees may not want to invest in a franchise and brand that has been under fire in recent years due to the nature of the food they sale and the traditional market they target. The public and political activists like Corporate Accountability International have become increasingly concerned that MCD "uses clowns and toys to sell unhealthy food to impressionable children. [and they want MCD to] stop making the next generation sick [by retiring] Ronald and the rest of [its] junk food marketing to kids". (Rooney, Ben). Symptom/Gap: MCD has targeted positive sales and revenues since FYE 2014. In contrast, MCD has experienced a 7% decline in revenue in 2015. The 2014 YE revenue result was approximately $27 million while the 2015 YE revenue result was
  • 7. Page 7 of 20 approximately $25 million. While consolidated sales increased year over year 1.5%, it remained flat in MCD's key US market. (McDonald’s Corporation, McDonald’s 2015 Annual Report). Root Causes. MCD's US sales have declined in recent years or remained flat. MCD's traditional menu is largely made up of "junk food." That menu is not retaining its traditional target customers (young families with children) nor is it attracting the new millennial market segment that appear to want "fresh and healthy" food. Customers perceive that other fast food franchises are offering healthier food, such as Chipotle, Five Guys, and Panera Bread. Accordingly, sales particularly in the US are declining. Root Cause. MCD has traditionally provided customers with a cheap, fast and convenient food source. Its product has been comprised of low cost ingredients, i.e., cheap ingredients and high caloric fats and carbohydrates, and to reach economies of scale, supply chains that are able to provide mass quantities of key ingredients such as bread, beef and chicken to central facilities that can distribute to its global retailers timely. But, customers are increasingly demanding better quality food Root Cause. MCD has suffered some reputational and brand damage over the quality of its food, particularly its meat, and its treatment of employees. In one instance a meat supplier Husi Food Co., Ltd. sold MCD expired meat in China, resulting in declining sales and revenues that have just recently started to come back in China but not Japan. MCD has also been involved in labor issues regarding low wages and poor work conditions at its own stores contributing to negative public perceptions and further damaging sales particularly in the US market but also in some European markets. (Sheffield, Hazel; Temple, Ron). Symptom/Gap: MCD’s has reported that consolidated guest counts have been negative in 2015 and declined 2.3%. Guest counts are the amount of customer traffic in same stores over a period of time. Generally, guest counts were expected to rise slightly or stay flat in 2015. (McDonald’s Corporation, McDonald’s 2015 Annual Report). Root Cause. Customers, particularly in the US have a "do-it-yourself health" focus—they want to customize their food orders to meet their personal health needs. As food sensitivities rise, parents increasingly need to address allergies such as gluten intolerance. Guest count declines may also be due to target customers gravitating to MCD competitors that offer more customizable menu options, like Subway, Panera Bread and Chipotle Mexican Grill. (Wolf, Barney). Roots Cause. MCD's target segment customers are children, youth and young urban parents. (McDonald’s Corporation, McDonald’s 2014 Annual Report). In recent years, MCDs customer demographics show signs of a decline in its family segment. "By mid-2014, families with a child age 12 or under accounted for 14.6% of [MCD's} visitors, from 18.6% in 2011". (Bertagnoli, Lisa). Root Cause. Guest count declines may be due to location of MCD franchises and company owned stores. Fast food is by definition intended to be convenient; if MCD's target customers are young families and children, MCD locations as stand-alone facilities with large play structures may not be the convenience customers are seeking in 2015 and going forward. Young working parents have limited time and are likely looking for fast value and healthy food in spaces they already visit—schools, health facilities, church events, grocery and other value merchandise stores. (Wolf, Barney).
  • 8. Page 8 of 20 In sum, MCD is facing intense industry competition based on price and its current franchise model, declining sales and revenues particularly in its US market, and negative guest counts, all resulting in a market share decline over the last several years. Single Problem: MCD unhealthy food menu is not attracting its traditional targeted customers causing declining sales and revenues resulting in a loss of market share: (2014 US market share 17% vs. 15.4% in 2015). Solutions,Evaluation & Recommendation Problem discussion. As noted in the Problem Analysis above, MCD's problem is an unhealthy food menu that is driving its traditional customers to other fast food options. Historically, MCD has created its market power by offering fast, cheap, convenient and filling food--more negatively referred to as “junk food.” MCD to become the dominant player in the fast food industry, its products have been comprised of low cost ingredients (cheap ingredients with high caloric fats and carbohydrates), and, to reach economies of scale, supply chains that are able to provide mass quantities of key ingredients such as bread, beef and chicken to central facilities that can distribute to its global retailers timely. But, customers are increasingly demanding better quality and healthier fast food. (ACSI: Customer Satisfaction Steady for Full-Service Restaurants; Fast Food Declines as Consumers With More Purchasing Power Prefer Quality Over Price). Weighted Matrix Analysis: Criteria and Weighting. To resolve MCD's problem, any solution that creates a fast food menu that will retain its traditional key customer base and attract new customer segments needs to be evaluated as to how well it increases sales and revenues by both retaining traditional customers and attracting new customers. Accordingly, solutions need to be evaluated against the criterion, and cumulatively weighted to a total of 1 as follows: Positive impact on (I) sales (0.30), (ii) customer preference (0.25), (iii) brand enhancement (0.15), (iv) public opinion (0.10) and (v) franchise desirability (0.20). Solution #1: Redesign Supply Chain to Include Local Suppliers and Local Food Culture MCDs needs to change its menu by incorporating local suppliers and the local food culture into its logistics and supply chain; It needs to provide menu options that are both reflective of each franchise region but that also capitalize on the fresh food available in the local supplier and farmer markets. By using local suppliers and farmers MCD would also participate in the local economy and help the local economies grow, which in turn could enhance its brand and improve its public image at the same time as addressing the increasing desire for fresher food options expressed by its customers, particularly in the US. Although moving towards a more localized supplier menu with more local cuisine choices is likely to increase MCD’s operational costs, I believe MCD’s current market power along with the strength of its balance sheet should allow it to find efficiencies in this more decentralized food delivery model. In the long run, this solution will generate a broader range of customers looking for this new fast food experience which should result in more sales and increased revenues. Regional customers will recognize MCD's support of its local food economy and more readily
  • 9. Page 9 of 20 identify with the food menu attracting both its traditional customers as well as "millennials" who are shaping the way we eat. These millennials want to eat local and support local economies: "50 percent of millennials refer to themselves as “foodies,” but 60 percent of those self-identified foodies still visit fast-food restaurants at least once a week (compared with 48 percent for older adults). (Carman, Tim; Contreras, Tricia). If MCD’s fresh local supplier farm menu can keep its young family and children customer base, and attract these millennials, it should be competitive with other fast food businesses because this will result in a more locally driven and sourced menu that will generate more customers and more sales; it should also create more desire for MCD franchises and thus create more MCD revenues, all of which should translate into more market share. (Appendix C: Solution 1 Chart: Benefits and Costs) Solution #2: Location, Location, Location; Sale in Customer Convenient Venues. MCD needs to target the young family segment and the millennials by establishing franchise locations in which families and millennials frequent and want to spend their discretionary food dollars. (Wolf, Barney). That is, MCD needs to bring its menu to the schools, and other community locations like churches, health care facilities, local farmers and craft markets, and recreational and entertainment locations like film and theaters that it has not traditionally penetrated, particularly due to their “junk food” image. To access these target customers, MCD needs to get into the schools, health care venues, food and value chain stores, local craft and food markets, and recreational and entertainment facilities with franchise opportunities. Some of these locations are often government or government sponsored (schools and some health care facilities), or non-profit organizations (local craft and food markets and theaters) that are often economically strapped and may welcome a franchise type of partnership with MCD to bring in new revenue streams. To further reach out to millennials, MCD needs to also establish locations that are primarily focused on this customer group--high traffic, urban areas with communal facilities and internet access. In sum, this solution will focus on the convenience of MCD's fast food option for its traditional and new millennial customers. These customers will find it easy to spend their discretionary dollars at the locations in which they already frequent and accordingly, this solution should create a new menu that will drive sales and increase franchise revenues, and ultimately increase MCD's market share in the fast-food industry. (Appendix D: Solution 2 Chart: Benefits and Costs) Solution #3: Healthier Food Choices MCDs needs to change its menu by offering healthier food choices--it needs to provide its franchisees with sustainable chicken and beef, and fresh vegetables and fruits all free of additives, antibiotics, and other artificial components to compete with threats from Starbucks, Chick-fil-A, fresh Mexican options and subway. (Wolf, Barney). MCD must reduce the caloric content of its menu choices and use more “real food” and local cuisine that is not always breaded, fried and high in calorie. In particular, it needs to redesign its salad options to add more vegetables and fruits to its menu. (Landers, Sarah, McDonald's fails at healthy food, makes kale salad WORSE than a Double Big Mac). The US food trend is clearly towards healthier choices as can be seen in the farm to table movement, and drive for less fat and sugar in school food options. It is not
  • 10. Page 10 of 20 enough for MCD to offer local cultural choices, like the McLobster in New England or the McSpaghetti in the Philippines, under its old centralized frozen food model. As part of its drive for a healthier menu, MCD needs to show its customers a menu that provides transparency about the food, e.g., tags that identify food sensitivities (both allergies and vegetarian requirements) as well as calorie and fat content information, and sustainable practices. Both young families and millennials (the customers it needs to retain and attract) are looking for a new fast food dining experience--lower but reasonable cost, but most importantly healthier choices. MCD needs to appeal to these target customers by making their food have less calories and fat, and more protein. This new marketing solution should also promote the new brand reputation as well as attract more franchisees. As customer guest traffic increases, sales should also increase and drive revenues which should ultimately drive MCD’s market share up in the fast-food industry. (Appendix E: Solution 3 Chart: Benefits and Costs) (Appendix F: Weighted Matrix Analysis) The Solution: The solution I have decided to go with is to develop a menu that provides healthier more transparent food choices. A shift to healthier menu options should bring both its traditional market of young families back, as well as attract new non-traditional millennial customers to its franchises and stores, resulting in increased sales and revenues and ultimately more market share. This healthier menu will provide allergy sensitive options, food that has less calories and fat, and higher quality and sustainable protein. MCD also needs to be transparent about their food by displaying calorie and fat content information under each item. The target customer base (young families and millennials) are willing to spend a little more for healthier food and want to support their community economies. (Carman, Tim). As important, this solution also supports MCD's values and business ethics: "operating ethically; giving back to its communities..." Healthier food options address their customer’s health needs as well as financial needs, and shows that MCD cares about their customers by making sure they’re eating healthy and are aware of what they’re eating. Creating transparent menus that show its customers the caloric, fat and other contents of those new fresh fruits, vegetables and sustainable protein options, as well as having items on the menu that are allergy free should make customers feel safe eating MCD food, and it will show MCD is a good corporate citizen by being on the forefront of both FDA regulatory concerns about drug laden protein, and in responding to political food activists groups demands for healthier fast food choices. ImplementationPlan The solution can be implemented in two general ways: (i) adding ingredients and new regional food choices (ii) changing the way its food items are prepared. This plan will likely take two to three years to fully implement but I suggest a pilot 12-month project that targets a particular region--the Pacific Northwest (PNW) and measure its success on a year over year basis for that region. Thereafter, if successful MCD can implement by targeting US regions to fully implement using the plan it created for the PNW over the next two years. Step 1 (Month 1): Target Facilities.
  • 11. Page 11 of 20 Identify selected franchises and stores within the PNW that will implement the solution. MCD would need to alert its current company stores and franchisees by area within the PNW about the new food menu changes. Step 2: (Months 1-3): Sourcing and Preparation. MCD will need to establish regional supply chains for fruits and vegetables, and sustainable beef and chicken that do not need to be flash frozen, as well as design some selected menu options that will incorporate those healthier food ingredients. MCD will also need to adjust other traditional menu options to be healthier; to do this, it will need to change the ratio of ingredients in its traditional menu to cook with less fat and use better sources of fat, such as better cholesterol frying ingredients, like olive, canola, avocado and coconut oil. MCD will also need to add some allergy sensitive ingredient options—generally some non-dairy and gluten free options that will require instituting new procedures and designating selected areas for preparing those items to ensure customers of the integrity of their allergy sensitive choices. It will also need to work with its current suppliers and add new regional supply contracts to source the new ingredients through traditional and new channels. Facility Redesign. MCD will likely need to address facility design at its current facilities and for all new facilities to ensure that they have the proper amount of space and equipment to efficiently make allergy sensitive food uncontaminated by MCD’s other menu options. Marketing and Branding. This solution will also require a new marketing plan to achieve its goal of becoming its customers “favorite place and way to eat and drink". MCD will need to move away from attracting its customers with toys and a clown and move towards branding based on fresh, healthy, convenient and reasonably priced fast food. This step will also need to include an advertising campaign that should include social media as well as MCD’s traditional forms of advertising. Materials and Documentation Preparation. MCD will need to revise or create new public and internal communications to explain this solution and to prepare franchisors and employees for the transition--a communication plan for the PNW solution. This step should also develop a customer and a public perception survey for use after initiation of the solution. It is likely to also include some new contracts and other legal documents to implement. Step 3: Month 4): Franchisee, Manager and Employee Preparation. Execute communication plan and initiate franchisee and employee retraining to understand the new menu, manage the preparation, and effectively market the new menu to its current customers. Step 4: (Months 4-6) Ad Campaign Rollout. Roll out the social media, T.V, radio and other mediums as planned. Step 5 (Month 6-12): Initiate Solution. All selected franchises and stores introduce new menu and begin testing against the pre-established metrics. Begin MCD internal audit to assess compliance with new menu options, and process and procedures to ensure that all pilot franchises and stores are following the new menu, food processes and communication procedures.
  • 12. Page 12 of 20 Success Metrics The solution and plan I have developed (to improve the health of MCD’s menu) should increase guest counts by retaining and attracting MCD’s target customers and result in better sales and revenues at its franchises and company stores. To determine the success of this solution MCD will need to measure monthly for the 6-month period beginning with initiation and compare it to the same 6-month period the prior 2 years for these targeted franchises and stores: guest traffic counts and customer perception. Metric #1 The fast food industry has some traditional tools for measuring success. One of these is guest traffic count. MCD needs to track by franchise and store guests counts on a monthly basis for the 6-month period the PNW solution is initiated and compare with guest counts for this same period on a monthly basis for the same 6-month period in the prior 2 fiscal years at these franchises and stores. If guest traffic count increases year over year for the 6-month period, MCD can infer that its new menu has had a positive impact. Similarly, sales from the increased guest traffic can be compared with sales for the prior two fiscal years during the same 6-month period allowing MCD to also determine if increased guest traffic has positively impacted sales. Guest counts, and sales, should also be correlated with sales at the targeted franchises and stores, and could be compared with similarly situated franchises and stores in the PNW that did not participate in the new menu pilot project. If sales and guest counts are higher than last year’s results at the same time in the targeted PNW stores versus similarly situated franchises and stores, than MCD can infer that its new menu has successfully increased both guest count and sales and may be its solution to positive guest counts in US markets, and potentially increased sales and revenues going forward as it implements its plan across all US regions over the next two years. Metric #2 MCD should execute two surveys: One for customers that buy food at its PNW franchises and stores, and a separate survey for public perception at large in the PNW. The customer survey should measure customer reaction to the new menu and evaluate customer preference for the new food items. This survey should be provided to every customer in each targeted franchise and store for the 6-month test period, and analyzed monthly. Customers should be incented to complete the survey somewhat like a loyalty program--points for completing the survey will earn free or discounts on additional food. MCD should also survey the public at large as well as monitor public opinion through news reports, industry analyst’s reviews and food activists’ responses to evaluate the positive or negative perception of its changes. Public surveys can be outsourced to a third party and delivered twice, at the beginning of the PNW new menu pilot project and at the end of the 6-month period to determine movement in the perception. All surveys should use a variety of mediums such as internet, hard copy and/or telephone, to accommodate as many responses as possible. MCD should invite public discourse when possible to generate as much “buzz” about its new approach as it can to better assess the success of this solution. Positive evaluations and perceptions of the new menu should provide some measure of whether this solution meets the needs of its customers and increase sales.
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  • 15. Page 15 of 20 Appendix Appendix A. Source: IBISWorld Competitor Comparison Company Franchised Annual Sales Revenue Operating Income McDonalds 81% 34,631,000 (-2.3%) 8,597,000 (-0.6%) 3,455,000 (-1.9%) Yum! 80%+ 19,585,000 (-1.7%) 2,303,000 (-12.4%) 472,000 (-18.3%) Subway 100% 11,938,000 (-2.6%) Unknown (private company; no public disclosure) 1,265,000 (-1.7%) Wendy's 85% 9,151,000 (1.8%) 1,824,600 (1.6%) 246,700 (12.5%)
  • 16. Page 16 of 20 Appendix B. Source: Global Markets Direct SWOT Reports
  • 17. Page 17 of 20 Appendix C. Tangible Benefits Sales increase Revenue increase A higher volume of customers Tangible Costs Buying food from local farmers is likely to increase costs Negative inventory/impact on financials Costs to retrain employees with new menus Potential loss of economies of scale Intangible Benefits Improved brand image Positive exposure to potential franchisees New expanded pool of markets Healthier customers Taking customers away from the competition Good press; potentially improved public image Helping local communities and local economy Intangible Costs Time to find new suppliers Creating a new menu Potential stress of cooks/cashiers from new menu items
  • 18. Page 18 of 20 Appendix D. Tangible Benefits Increased number of customers Increased sales New franchise locations Tangible Costs The cost of new infastructure Hiring new employees/managers New equipment costs New property costs Extra food costs Costs to file paperwork on new franchises Tangible Benefits Fulfilling promises of more franchisees More family food locations More public exposure Providing food to a broader segment of customers Intangible Costs Lost time if plan isn't successful Bad public exposure A decline in public health
  • 19. Page 19 of 20 Appendix E. Tangible Benefits Increased number of customers Increased sales Increased guest counts Tangible Costs Food costs Retraining employees/managers Test product costs New menu costs New equipment costs Intangible Benefits Positive public exposure Promoting health in the community Providing food to a broader range of customers Improved brand image Intangible Costs Potential failed food products Employee/manager stress from new menu items Lost time if plan isn't successful
  • 20. Page 20 of 20 Appendix F. Weight Solution 1 Solution 2 Solution 3 Revenue Increase 0.3 8 2.4 8 2.4 8 2.4 Customer Preference 0.25 8 2 8 2 9 2.25 Brand Enhancement 0.15 7 1.05 7 1.05 8 1.2 Public Opinion 0.1 6 0.6 6 0.6 8 0.8 Franchise Desirability 0.2 7 1.4 8 1.6 8 1.6 1 7.45 7.65 8.25