Case study of diffusion models of mobile industry in Greece
1. Case Study of Diffusion Models of
Mobile Industry in Greece
2018.10.24
Madeleine
2. Diffusion models of telecommunication
分析動機與目的:
• 個案探討的工具較偏向總經預測非個經預測 (整個pie)
• 了解diffusion of innovation -> 客戶對科技採納程度的分類,並依照
Rogers 的 S型擴散(成長)創新理論, 5種類客戶分布跟定義
• 2008 3G 情境類比現今,依據擴散模型做需求預估,比較擴散模型結果
個案分析步驟 :
1 Introduction
2 Mobile telecommunications sector in Greece—market overview
3 Diffusion models for mobile telecommunications
4 Model evaluation and results
4.1 Methodology for diffusion analysis – critical mass
4.2 Models evaluation and comparison – training data and real
data、MAPE
5 Conclusion
4. 二、 電信業擴散(成長) 模型
2G >> 3G VS 4G >> 5G
從2000年開始,通信業界就在呼喊3G,但喊了幾年,直到2007、2008年才開始真正普
及,原因是3G的崛起,從iPhone開始
Bass Model
Fisher-Pry Model
Gompertx Model
S-shaped Model
FLOG Model
Box-Cox
5. 三、技術採用生命週期
Technology Adoption LifeCycle
1957年Iowa State College 為分析玉米種子採購行為所提出。起先,該概念的提出並未獲
得許多迴響,一直要等到1962年Everett Rogers出版《創新的擴散》(Diffusion of
Innovations)一書後,才逐漸獲得學研界的重視。
落後者(laggards)
16% - neighbours
and friends are main
info sources, fear of
debt(落伍者)
晚期大眾(late majority)
34% - skeptical, traditional,
lower socio-economic
status (傳統百姓)
創新者(innovators)2.5% -
venturesome, educated,
multiple info sources,
greater propensity to take
risk (冒險家)
早期大眾(early
majority)34% -
deliberate, many
informal social
contacts (深思熟慮者)
早期採用者(early
adopters)13.5% -
social leaders,
popular, educated
(意見領袖)
critical
mass
6. 臨界質量;臨界人數;群聚效應;
也是一個社會動力學的名詞,用來描述在一個社會系統裡,某件事情的存在已達
至一個足夠的動量,使它能夠自我維持,並為往後的成長提供動力 .
關鍵在算出反趨點/反曲點
S型擴散(成長)創新反趨點/反曲點,Bass 可以算出來
• 如果已經有很多用戶了,就會有越來越多用戶
• 如果現在沒有用戶,就沒人想成為該組織/公司的用戶
Bass重點,p、q、M
p : 原來就會用的用戶 (innovator)
q : network externality (imitator)
M -- the potential market (the
ultimate number of adopters)
p -- coefficient of
innovation
q -- coefficient of
imitation
Source : http://www.bassbasement.org/BassModel/Default.aspx
the Bass model, its parameters are estimated by
nonlinear least squares (NLS) regression,
7. Differentiation
微分, 再微分囉
• 𝜹, coefficient of diffusion
• the diffusion speed and
correlates the diffusion
rate with the actual and
maximum penetration.
• Y(t) , population that has
already adopted the
service
• Y(t) represents the total
penetration at time t.
• S, the saturation
level of the specific
technology (the
• maximum expected
adoption level)
• S-Y(t), the remaining
market potential
represented by
四、模型 : A differential equation for the
aggregated S-type diffusion models
8. 模型比較
Ra-squared : the adjusted coefficient of multiple determination
Population in 2005, 10,964,000
S.E. standard error of estimate
Withheld sample : real data
Training data : historical data