Retail Real Estate Market Overview by Madison Marquette

Retail Real Estate Market Overview By Walter Bialas Vice President of Research Madison Marquette

Recession Rumored at the End of 2007 is Now Official ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Unemployment Rising Rapidly ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Economic Uncertainty Has Driven Consumer Confidence to Historic Lows ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Retail Spending Outlook Impacted ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Shopping Center Sales Decline After Extended Run-Up ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Department Stores Continue to Struggle to Find Customers ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Discounters and Supercenters Enjoying Sustained Sales Growth ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Apparel Sector Slowing with Economy ,[object Object]

Big Ticket Items Particularly Hurt ,[object Object],[object Object]

Retailers Consolidate and Restructure to Find Solid Base ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Some of the More Notable 2008 Announcements ,[object Object],[object Object],ANNOUNCED STORE CLOSINGS SELECT RETAILERS AS OF DECEMBER 2008 Retailer Stores Closing Status Ann Taylor 117 Re-Structuring Banana Republic 25 Re-Structuring Circuit City 155 Chapter 11 Club Libby Lu 78 Re-Structuring Disney Stores 98 Chapter 11 Fashion Bug / Lane Bryant / Catherine's 146 Re-Structuring Foot Locker 60 Re-Structuring Friedman's Jewelers 377 Chapter 11 Linen's n Things 371 Chapter 11 Mervyn's 149 Chapter 7 Pacific Sunwear 154 Re-Structuring Sharper Image 96 Chapter 11 Starbucks 600 Re-Structuring Steve & Barry's 276 Chapter 7 Talbots Kids / Talbots Mens 78 Re-Structuring Tweeter 94 Chapter 11 White Hall Jewelers 355 Chapter 11 Wilson's Leather 103 Chapter 11 Zales Jewelers 105 Re-Structuring TOTAL 3,437 --—

Retail Projects Under Construction Beginning to Slow ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Retail Vacancy Rising as Tenants Retrench ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Transaction Volume Back to 2001-2002 Levels ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Cap Rates Beginning to Readjust to New Economy ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Market Over Correction ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

REIT Dividend Yields Out of Sync ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Recent Retail REIT Performance ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],PERFORMANCE SUMMARY SELECT RETAIL REITS AS OF DECEMBER 3, 2008 (Millions) Stock Price (Per Share) Current Equity Cap Enterprise Value Total Debt (YE 2007) Implied Cap Rate 1/ REIT Ticker 4-Dec-07 Current Price Decline General Growth Properties GGP $45.84 $1.33 97% $490 $24,840 $24,350 10.5% Macrerich MAC $76.29 $11.32 85% $862 $6,625 $5,763 9.5% Simon Property Group SPG $94.44 $46.36 51% $10,469 $27,688 $17,219 8.0% Taubman Centers TCO $52.51 $21.57 59% $1,144 $3,845 $2,701 8.0% Acadia Realty Trust AKR $25.28 $13.13 48% $433 $951 $518 8.0% Federal Realty Trust FRT $81.37 $52.32 36% $3,085 $4,723 $1,638 8.5% Pennsylvania REIT PEI $32.53 $3.96 88% $156 $2,431 $2,274 10.6% Regency Centers REG $65.52 $31.40 52% $2,198 $4,206 $2,008 10.5% 1/ Implied cap rate based on Wall Street analyst reports from the end of October to early November.

Retail Real Estate Market Overview by Madison Marquette

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