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August 2015 ©2015, Greater Houston Partnership Page 1
The Energy Outlook — After two months of relative stability, crude prices fell signifi-
cantly in July. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. benchmark for light, sweet
crude, opened the month at $59.30 on the NYMEX spot market. When the final bell rang
and markets closed on July 31, WTI had slipped to $47.20, a decline of $12.10, or 20.4
percent.
Crude prices fell for a variety of reasons:
 Growing concern over slowing growth in China: The International Monetary Fund
(IMF) forecasts the Chinese economy will grow 6.8 percent in ’15, down from 7.4
percent in ’14 and from double-digit growth as recently as ’10. Slower growth trans-
lates into weaker demand for oil. China’s oil consumption is slated to increase only
2.5 percent this year, compared to 3.3 percent last year and 16.8 percent in the boom
year of ’04.
 Anxiety over the lifting of Iranian sanctions: Iran will likely boost exports by 500,000
barrels per day once sanctions are lifted later this year or early next. Within a year, ex-
ports could climb to 1 million barrels per day. Iran also has 40 million barrels of crude
in storage that could quickly flood the market once sanctions are lifted.
 Marginal declines in domestic production: The North American rig count has been cut
in half, but the reduction has not impacted crude output. The U.S. Energy Information
Administration (EIA) estimates the nation produced 9.6 million barrels of oil per day
in June, up from 8.9 million barrels when the rig count peaked in September.
 Stubbornly high inventories: Analysts had expected crude stockpiles to shrink as re-
fineries revved up for the summer driving season. The inventory reductions have been
marginal, however. Crude in storage peaked at 483 million barrels in April, slipping to
466 million barrels in June. That’s still well above the 384 million barrels in June last
year. As vacations end and refineries begin their fall maintenance programs, invento-
ries are likely to rise again.
A World Awash in Crude — EIA estimates the world currently produces 95.7 million
barrels, consumes 93.1 million barrels, and generates a surplus of 2.6 million barrels of
oil per day. Ironically, the 2.6 million barrel surplus equates to U.S. production growth
over the past two years. Production continues to flow despite low prices. Collectively,
Angola, Canada, China, Egypt, Iraq, Libya, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and the United King-
dom pumped 2 million barrels more in April ’15 than they did in April ’14. For some,
A publication of the Greater Houston Partnership Volume 24 Number 8 — August 2015
HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE
August 2015 ©2015, Greater Houston Partnership Page 2
it’s a case of holding onto market share; for others, the need to offset in volume what
they’ve lost in price.
A similar story is playing out at home, with several firms (e.g., Anadarko, Marathon, No-
ble Energy) reporting they’ve managed to boost production even though they’ve slashed
their exploration budgets. And even though the rig count has plummeted 57 percent from
the peak in the Eagle Ford, 56 percent in the Bakken, and 64 percent in the Permian, out-
put in the nation’s three most prolific basins has fallen less than 2 percent. The reason:
better technology, more experience drilling and fracking, and a keener understanding of
the geology associated with tight oil. Five years ago, initial production from an Eagle
Ford well averaged 102 barrels per day. In June this year, initial production averaged 717
barrels per day, according to data from the EIA.
The increased production has not flowed to the bottom line, however. Exxon, the biggest
U.S. energy producer, recently reported its lowest quarterly profit since ’09. Chevron
posted its worst quarter in 12 years. Earnings from Shell Oil’s upstream business fell 80
percent compared to the same quarter last year. And many independents such as Cono-
coPhillips, Marathon, and Chesapeake reported outright losses for the quarter.
Prior to the downturn, conventional wisdom held that the typical well in the Eagle Ford
would be profitable as long as oil remained above $70 per barrel. Oil hasn’t traded above
that level since November ’14. As prices fell, exploration firms demanded price conces-
sions from the service firms, and the break-even point fell as well. Some E&P companies
boasted their wells could make a profit at $50 and even $40 per barrel. The importance of
that metric has begun to fade, however. The new focus is on corporate overhead, cash
flow, debt service, capital discipline, and cost-cutting measures. Investors realize that
even though individual wells are profitable, the company overall may be losing money.
A gradual realization seems to be emerging that the price of oil will remain low for the
foreseeable future. Baker Hughes, in its second quarter earnings report, said headwinds
from tumbling oil prices will persist for the rest of the year. The NYMEX futures market
shows oil not trading above $56 a barrel until late in ’17. In its earnings report, Shell Oil
stated crude prices may remain depressed for the next five years.
The industry continues to sell assets and reduce headcounts to better function in a low-
price environment. This commodity cycle is following the typical pattern—the first wave
of layoffs in the field and on the shop floor, impacting blue-collar and hourly workers;
the second wave in the corporate offices, impacting white collar and professional staff.
It’s too soon to tell what impact these layoffs will have outside the energy sector. The en-
ergy sector—exploration, oil field services, and oil field equipment manufacturing—
accounts for 5.0 percent of total nonfarm payroll employment and 14.3 percent of total
wages and salaries in the region. Two other sectors closely aligned with energy—
fabricated metal products and engineering—account for another 4.5 percent of total em-
HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE
August 2015 ©2015, Greater Houston Partnership Page 3
6.5
7.1
7.7
8.4
9.2
9.9
3.0 3.4 3.7 4.0 4.3 4.6
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
'15 '20 '25 '30 '35 '40
Millions
Population and Employment
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land MSA
Population Employment
Source: The Perryman Group, Summer 2015
ployment and 4.9 percent of total wages. These sectors are part of Houston’s economic
base and as such support a significant number of jobs in the secondary sectors—retail,
restaurants, real estate, etc. These jobs are at risk as well. The impact of the downturn on
these sectors won’t be apparent until the end of this year or early next year.
On the Brighter Side — De-
spite the current slump in the
energy industry, Houston’s
long-term outlook remains
bright. The metro area’s real
(i.e., net of inflation) gross area
product (GAP) is projected to
more than double between ’15
and ’40, according to the recent-
ly released forecast by Ray Per-
ryman, the Waco-based econo-
mist who has studied the U.S.,
Texas and metro economies
since the ’70s.1
Perryman forecasts Houston’s
real GAP to grow from $504.1 billion in ’15 to $1.15 trillion in ’40―an average annual
growth rate of 3.4 percent. The industries with the fastest annual growth rates from ’15 to
’40 are: services (3.9 percent), manufacturing (3.8 percent), and mining (3.3 percent).
These fastest-growing industries are also the largest industry sectors by dollar value.
Mining is the largest contributor to Houston’s GAP in ’15 at $138.8 billion (23.1 percent
of total GAP) followed by
services at $113.4 billion
(18.9 percent) and manufac-
turing at $109.5 billion
(18.2 percent).
“While the end of the oil
surge will affect perfor-
mance in the near term,” the
Perryman report states, “the
Houston area’s economy is
far more diversified than in
decades past and the down-
1
The Perryman Economic Forecast: Long-Term Outlook for the United States, Texas, Major Metropolitan Areas, and
Regions, is available for purchase from The Perryman Group, 800-749-8705 or info@perrymangroup.com.
$504.1
$627.4
$754.0
$887.2
$1,022.1
$1,154.1
'15 '20 '25 '30 '35 '40
Source: The Perryman Group, Summer 2015
* '09 constant dollars
Real Gross Area Product Forecast
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land MSA
$ Billions*
HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE
August 2015 ©2015, Greater Houston Partnership Page 4
turn in oil prices is not likely to derail economic performance for an extended period of
time.” The report also notes the importance of growth in non-energy sectors to compen-
sate for the negative impact from lower energy prices.
Over the next quarter-century, the metro area is expected to add 3.4 million residents―an
average annual growth rate of 1.7 percent. Wage and salary employment is forecasted to
gain 1.5 million jobs―an average annual rate of 1.6 percent. The region is expected to
account for one-fourth of Texas’ job growth during this period.
Employment Update — The Houston metro area gained 55,700 jobs in the 12 months
ending June ’15, according to the Texas Workforce Commission (TWC). The corre-
sponding 1.9 percent 12-month growth rate is the slowest since November ’11. The em-
ployment numbers are somewhat misleading, since all the job gains occurred in the latter
half of ’14. Since December, the region has posted a net loss of 5,600 jobs. Employment
gains in the service sectors so far this year have not been able to offset losses in the goods
producing sectors. Some of the losses date back to the fall of last year. The employment
numbers reflect the weakness in the oil patch. The sectors still adding jobs are those
which depend heavily on population growth, activity outside the energy sectors, or are
benefiting from the momentum built up over the past five years of robust economic ex-
pansion.
RECENT CHANGES IN HOUSTON EMPLOYMENT
Sector Peak Gains/Losses1
Leisure and Hospitality Still Growing +22,900
Business Services Still Growing +7,300
Health Care Still Growing +4,200
Other Services Still Growing +1,800
Information Still Growing +1,300
Manufacturing December ’14 -11,700
Government2
April ’15 -7,700
Mining and Logging December ’14 -6,600
Retail December ’14 -6,600
Construction October ’14 -5,200
Transportation, Warehousing Utilities December ’14 -3,700
Finance & Real Estate October ’14 -2,900
Wholesale Trade December ’14 -2,300
1
Gains measured from December ’14; losses measured from previous peak
2
Primarily includes local education
Source: Partnership calculations based on Texas Workforce Commission data.
HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE
August 2015 ©2015, Greater Houston Partnership Page 5
Still on Top — Houston exported $118.9 billion in goods and commodities in ’14, up
$4.0 billion (3.5 percent) from the previous year, according to data recently released by
the U.S. International Trade Administration (ITA). Houston led the nation in export sales
last year, ahead of New York, Los Angeles, Seattle and Detroit. This marks the third con-
secutive year Houston has garnered the top spot.
Houston’s exports have grown by $77.2 billion, a 185 percent increase, since ’05. No
other U.S. metro has experienced comparable growth.
Five sectors accounted for the bulk of Houston’s shipments in ’14: petroleum and coal
products ($34.8 billion), basic chemicals ($16.6 billion), oil and gas extraction ($12.5 bil-
lion), resins and synthetic rubber ($11.2 billion), and heavy industrial machinery ($7.9
billion).
Houston supplied 48.7 percent of Texas exports in ’14, down slightly from 51.2 percent
in ’13. By comparison, the state’s next largest exporter, Dallas-Fort Worth, accounted for
11.7 percent of Texas exports. Houston’s and San Antonio’s contributions to state exports
have grown significantly since ’05 while Austin’s and Dallas’ have shrunk, a reflection of
the greater importance of global trade plays in the Houston and San Antonio economies.
Readers should be aware that ITA’s export data differ somewhat from the Houston-
Galveston Customs District data often cited in local publications. Customs district data
reflect cargo that passes through the region’s ports. ITA data are an “origin of move-
ment” (OM) series and reflect the metro from which cargo began its overseas journey.
OM includes goods manufactured locally shipped out of Houston, goods manufactured
locally that leave the U.S. from a port outside the Houston metro area, and goods pro-
duced elsewhere and consolidated in Houston for export.
TOP 10 U.S. EXPORTING METROS - $ BILLION
Exports Change Since ’05
Rank Metro '05 '14 $ Value Percent
1 Houston, TX 41.748 118.966 77.218 185.0
2 New York, NY 55.565 105.267 49.702 89.4
3 Los Angeles, CA 43.814 75.471 31.657 72.3
4 Seattle, WA 30.676 61.938 31.262 101.9
5 Detroit, MI 40.360 50.279 9.919 24.6
6 Chicago, IL 26.172 47.340 21.168 80.9
7 Miami, FL 20.383 37.969 17.587 86.3
8 New Orleans, LA 4.858 34.882 30.024 618.1
9 Dallas, TX 20.541 28.669 8.128 39.6
10 San Francisco, CA 14.707 26.864 12.157 82.7
Source: U.S. International Trade Administration
HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE
August 2015 ©2015, Greater Houston Partnership Page 6
SNAPSHOT — HOUSTON’S KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Building Permits — City of Houston construction permits totaled $8.3 billion in the 12
months ending June ’15, up 10.2 percent from $7.6 billion in the preceding 12 months,
according to the city’s Department of Public Works & Engineering Planning & Devel-
opment Services. The 12-month building permit total experienced its first uptick in June
after three months of declines.
Inflation — From June ’14 to June ’15, consumer prices in the Houston-Galveston-
Brazoria metro area (Brazoria, Chambers, Fort Bend, Galveston, Harris, Liberty, Mont-
gomery and Waller Counties) slipped 0.4 percent, the third consecutive 12-month de-
cline. In contrast, core inflation, as measured by the index for all items without food and
energy, rose 2.5 percent over the year.
Home Sales — Houston realtors set a record in June, selling 9,480 single-family homes,
townhomes, condos, duplexes, county homes, high rise units and lots, according to the Hous-
ton Association of REALTORS®
. The second-best month on record was June ’06, when lo-
cal realtors sold 9,287 units. Over the past 12 months, local realtors recorded 90,814 clos-
ings. The 12-month pace has held above 90,000 units since October ’14.
Purchasing Managers Index — The Houston Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), a short-
term leading indicator for regional production, registered 46.7 in June, up from 46.1 in May,
according to the latest report from the Institute for Supply Management-Houston (ISM-
Houston).
Vehicle Sales — Houston-area auto dealers experienced their best June on record, selling
34,424 vehicles in the month, an 8.7 percent increase over the 31,662 sold in June ’14. This
brings the second quarter total to 103,231, making it the highest Q2 sales on record, accord-
ing to TexAuto Facts, published by InfoNation, Inc. of Sugar Land. Replacement of vehicles
lost in Memorial Day weekend flooding contributed to the June performance.
Patrick Jankowski and Jenny Philip
contributed to this issue of
Houston: The Economy at a Glance
HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE
August 2015 ©2015, Greater Houston Partnership Page 7
Stay Up To Date!
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HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE
August 2015 ©2015, Greater Houston Partnership Page 8
HOUSTON MSA NONFARM PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT (000)
Change from % Change from
Jun '15 May '15 Jun '14 May '15 Jun '14 May '15 Jun '14
Total Nonfarm Payroll Jobs 2,987.0 2,982.7 2,931.3 4.3 55.7 0.1 1.9
Total Private 2,607.6 2,596.1 2,557.4 11.5 50.2 0.4 2.0
Goods Producing 561.1 561.5 567.3 -0.4 -6.2 -0.1 -1.1
Service Providing 2,425.9 2,421.2 2,364.0 4.7 61.9 0.2 2.6
Private Service Providing 2,046.5 2,034.6 1,990.1 11.9 56.4 0.6 2.8
Mining and Logging 108.9 108.1 109.2 0.8 -0.3 0.7 -0.3
Oil & Gas Extraction 55.3 54.7 54.0 0.6 1.3 1.1 2.4
Support Activities for Mining 53.3 52.7 53.9 0.6 -0.6 1.1 -1.1
Construction 205.2 204.4 202.8 0.8 2.4 0.4 1.2
Manufacturing 247.0 249.0 255.3 -2.0 -8.3 -0.8 -3.3
Durable Goods Manufacturing 165.7 168.0 175.0 -2.3 -9.3 -1.4 -5.3
Nondurable Goods Manufacturing 81.3 81.0 80.3 0.3 1.0 0.4 1.2
Wholesale Trade 170.1 170.5 168.7 -0.4 1.4 -0.2 0.8
Retail Trade 302.1 303.3 292.6 -1.2 9.5 -0.4 3.2
Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities 135.3 134.5 133.6 0.8 1.7 0.6 1.3
Utilities 16.1 16.0 15.9 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3
Air Transportation 20.5 20.4 20.7 0.1 -0.2 0.5 -1.0
Truck Transportation 25.9 25.7 24.6 0.2 1.3 0.8 5.3
Pipeline Transportation 10.5 10.5 10.3 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.9
Information 33.9 33.8 33.3 0.1 0.6 0.3 1.8
Telecommunications 15.0 14.9 15.1 0.1 -0.1 0.7 -0.7
Finance & Insurance 94.1 93.9 93.7 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.4
Real Estate & Rental and Leasing 52.6 52.1 54.4 0.5 -1.8 1.0 -3.3
Professional & Business Services 477.7 471.2 466.8 6.5 10.9 1.4 2.3
Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 224.6 223.1 217.2 1.5 7.4 0.7 3.4
Legal Services 25.1 25.1 24.1 0.0 1.0 0.0 4.1
Accounting, Tax Preparation, Bookkeeping 23.0 22.9 21.9 0.1 1.1 0.4 5.0
Architectural, Engineering & Related Services 74.2 75.0 74.3 -0.8 -0.1 -1.1 -0.1
Computer Systems Design & Related Services 33.3 32.4 32.3 0.9 1.0 2.8 3.1
Admin & Support/Waste Mgt & Remediation 219.7 215.0 215.0 4.7 4.7 2.2 2.2
Administrative & Support Services 207.8 203.2 204.1 4.6 3.7 2.3 1.8
Employment Services 79.6 77.4 81.4 2.2 -1.8 2.8 -2.2
Educational Services 52.5 54.5 50.7 -2.0 1.8 -3.7 3.6
Health Care & Social Assistance 309.2 308.7 296.7 0.5 12.5 0.2 4.2
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 34.8 33.4 32.8 1.4 2.0 4.2 6.1
Accommodation & Food Services 278.1 274.2 261.3 3.9 16.8 1.4 6.4
Other Services 106.1 104.5 105.5 1.6 0.6 1.5 0.6
Government 379.4 386.6 373.9 -7.2 5.5 -1.9 1.5
Federal Government 27.9 27.9 27.6 0.0 0.3 0.0 1.1
State Government 70.3 72.4 70.0 -2.1 0.3 -2.9 0.4
State Government Educational Services 37.8 39.8 37.5 -2.0 0.3 -5.0 0.8
Local Government 281.2 286.3 276.3 -5.1 4.9 -1.8 1.8
Local Government Educational Services 194.9 199.9 190.6 -5.0 4.3 -2.5 2.3
SOURCE: Texas Workforce Commission
HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE
August 2015 ©2015, Greater Houston Partnership Page 9
Houston Economic Indicators
A Service of the Greater Houston Partnership
Most Year % Most Year %
Month Recent Earlier Change Recent Earlier Change
ENERGY
U.S. Active Rotary Rigs Jul '15 866 1,876 -53.8 1,108 * 1,821 * -39.2
Spot Crude Oil Price ($/bbl, West Texas Intermediate) Jul '15 51.13 103.83 -50.8 52.89 * 101.51 * -47.9
Spot Natural Gas ($/MMBtu, Henry Hub) Jul '15 2.81 4.10 -31.5 2.81 * 4.65 * -39.6
UTILITIES AND PRODUCTION
Houston Purchasing Managers Index Jun '15 46.7 52.4 -10.9 46.4 * 57.3 * -19.0
Nonresidential Electric Current Sales (Mwh, CNP Service Area) Jun '15 5,015,448 4,675,695 7.3 26,844,566 25,417,761 5.6
CONSTRUCTION
Total Building Contracts ($, Houston MSA) Jun '15 1,646,848,000 4,353,370,000 -62.2 8,912,790,000 16,289,032,000 -45.3
Nonresidential Jun '15 832,402,000 3,443,662,000 -75.8 3,804,151,000 11,233,890,000 -66.1
Residential Jun '15 814,446,000 909,708,000 -10.5 5,108,639,000 5,055,142,000 1.1
Building Permits ($, City of Houston) Jun '15 719,998,873 561,461,160 28.2 3,865,906,735 4,205,528,707 -8.1
Nonresidential Jun '15 486,278,855 402,775,097 20.7 2,520,320,515 2,828,230,849 -10.9
New Nonresidential Jun '15 191,547,764 181,382,592 5.6 1,356,741,981 1,754,925,253 -22.7
Nonresidential Additions/Alterations/Conversions Jun '15 294,731,091 221,392,505 33.1 1,163,578,534 1,073,305,596 8.4
Residential Jun '15 233,720,018 158,686,063 47.3 1,345,586,220 1,377,297,858 -2.3
New Residential Jun '15 208,987,786 138,147,264 51.3 1,223,002,015 1,223,993,928 -0.1
Residential Additions/Alterations/Conversions Jun '15 24,732,232 20,538,799 20.4 122,584,205 153,303,930 -20.0
Multiple Listing Service (MLS) Activity
Property Sales Jun '15 9,480 9,177 3.3 43,198 43,645 -1.0
Median Sales Price - SF Detached Jun '15 225,000 214,500 4.9 209,933 * 194,165 * 8.1
Active Listings Jun '15 31,963 29,513 8.3 29,175 * 28,406 * 2.7
EMPLOYMENT (Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown MSA)
Nonfarm Payroll Employment Jun '15 2,987,000 2,931,300 1.9 2,967,740 * 2,884,980 * 2.9
Goods Producing (Natural Resources/Mining/Const/Mfg) Jun '15 561,100 567,300 -1.1 570,860 0 557,940 * 2.3
Service Providing Jun '15 2,425,900 2,364,000 2.6 2,396,880 0 2,327,040 * 3.0
Unemployment Rate (%) - Not Seasonally Adjusted
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown MSA Jun '15 4.5 5.3 4.3 * 5.2 *
Texas Jun '15 4.4 5.4 4.3 * 5.4 *
U.S. Jun '15 5.5 6.3 5.6 * 6.5 *
TRANSPORTATION
Port of Houston Authority Shipments (Short Tons) Jun '15 3,855,332 4,023,010 -4.2 24,568,099 22,915,308 7.2
Air Passengers (Houston Airport System) Jun '15 4,976,040 4,774,405 4.2 26,635,902 26,026,366 2.3
Domestic Passengers Jun '15 3,982,190 3,846,786 3.5 21,516,354 21,098,151 2.0
International Passengers Jun '15 993,850 927,619 7.1 5,119,548 4,928,215 3.9
Landings and Takeoffs Jun '15 67,853 68,909 -1.5 328,755 335,892 -2.1
Air Freight (metric tons) Jun '15 32,173 35,327 -8.9 209,188 210,457 -0.6
Enplaned Jun '15 16,392 18,652 -12.1 108,927 111,556 -2.4
Deplaned Jun '15 15,782 16,675 -5.4 100,261 98,902 1.4
CONSUMERS
New Car and Truck Sales (Units, Houston MSA) Jun '15 34,424 31,662 8.7 188,818 195,164 -3.3
Cars Jun '15 13,946 16,798 -17.0 77,752 86,850 -10.5
Trucks, SUVs and Commercials Jun '15 20,478 14,864 37.8 111,066 108,314 2.5
Total Retail Sales ($000,000, Houston MSA, NAICS Basis) 4Q14 34,260 37,618 -8.9 123 116 5.6
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers ('82-'84=100)
Houston-Galveston-Brazoria CMSA Jun '15 213.896 214.668 -0.4 212.062 * 212.836 * -0.4
United States Jun '15 238.638 238.343 0.1 236.625 * 236.384 * 0.1
Hotel Performance (Houston MSA)
Occupancy (%) 4Q14 68.1 65.9 71.8 * 69.1 *
Average Room Rate ($) 4Q14 106.52 101.26 5.2 106.87 * 101.19 * 5.6
Revenue Per Available Room ($) 4Q14 72.49 66.77 8.6 76.76 * 69.92 * 9.8
YEAR-TO-DATE TOTAL or
YTD AVERAGE*MONTHLY DATA
HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE
August 2015 ©2015, Greater Houston Partnership Page 10
Sources
Rig Count Baker Hughes Incorporated
Spot WTI, Spot Natural Gas U.S. Energy Information Admin.
Houston Purchasing Managers National Association of
Index Purchasing Management –
Houston, Inc.
Electricity CenterPoint Energy
Building Construction Contracts McGraw-Hill Construction
City of Houston Building Permits Building Permit Department,
City of Houston
MLS Data Houston Association of Realtors
Employment, Unemployment Texas Workforce Commission
Port Shipments Port of Houston Authority
Aviation Aviation Department, City of
Houston
Car and Truck Sales TexAuto Facts Report, InfoNation, Inc.,
Sugar Land TX
Retail Sales Texas Comptroller’s Office
Consumer Price Index U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Hotels PKF Consulting/HospitalityAsset
Advisors International
Postings, Foreclosures Foreclosure Information &Listing
Service
HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE
August 2015 ©2015, Greater Houston Partnership Page 11
-150
-120
-90
-60
-30
0
30
60
90
120
150
2,000
2,100
2,200
2,300
2,400
2,500
2,600
2,700
2,800
2,900
3,000
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16
12-MonthChange(000)
NonfarmPayrollEmployment(000)
Source: Texas Workforce Commission
Nonfarm Payroll Employment, Houston MSA
12-Month Change Total Payroll Employment
1,800
1,900
2,000
2,100
2,200
2,300
2,400
2,500
420
460
500
540
580
620
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16
Service-ProvidingJobs(000s)
Goods-ProducingJobs(000s)
Source: Texas Workforce Commission
Goods-Producing and Service-Providing Employment
Houston MSA
Goods-Producing Jobs Service-Providing Jobs
HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE
August 2015 ©2015, Greater Houston Partnership Page 12
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16
%CivilianLaborForce
Source: Texas Workforce Commission
Unemployment Rate - Houston, Texas and U.S.
Houston Texas U.S.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16
NaturalGas,$/mcf
WTI,$barrel
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
Spot Crude and Natural Gas Prices
Monthly Averages
WTI Natural Gas

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Houston Economy at a glance

  • 1. August 2015 ©2015, Greater Houston Partnership Page 1 The Energy Outlook — After two months of relative stability, crude prices fell signifi- cantly in July. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. benchmark for light, sweet crude, opened the month at $59.30 on the NYMEX spot market. When the final bell rang and markets closed on July 31, WTI had slipped to $47.20, a decline of $12.10, or 20.4 percent. Crude prices fell for a variety of reasons:  Growing concern over slowing growth in China: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts the Chinese economy will grow 6.8 percent in ’15, down from 7.4 percent in ’14 and from double-digit growth as recently as ’10. Slower growth trans- lates into weaker demand for oil. China’s oil consumption is slated to increase only 2.5 percent this year, compared to 3.3 percent last year and 16.8 percent in the boom year of ’04.  Anxiety over the lifting of Iranian sanctions: Iran will likely boost exports by 500,000 barrels per day once sanctions are lifted later this year or early next. Within a year, ex- ports could climb to 1 million barrels per day. Iran also has 40 million barrels of crude in storage that could quickly flood the market once sanctions are lifted.  Marginal declines in domestic production: The North American rig count has been cut in half, but the reduction has not impacted crude output. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates the nation produced 9.6 million barrels of oil per day in June, up from 8.9 million barrels when the rig count peaked in September.  Stubbornly high inventories: Analysts had expected crude stockpiles to shrink as re- fineries revved up for the summer driving season. The inventory reductions have been marginal, however. Crude in storage peaked at 483 million barrels in April, slipping to 466 million barrels in June. That’s still well above the 384 million barrels in June last year. As vacations end and refineries begin their fall maintenance programs, invento- ries are likely to rise again. A World Awash in Crude — EIA estimates the world currently produces 95.7 million barrels, consumes 93.1 million barrels, and generates a surplus of 2.6 million barrels of oil per day. Ironically, the 2.6 million barrel surplus equates to U.S. production growth over the past two years. Production continues to flow despite low prices. Collectively, Angola, Canada, China, Egypt, Iraq, Libya, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and the United King- dom pumped 2 million barrels more in April ’15 than they did in April ’14. For some, A publication of the Greater Houston Partnership Volume 24 Number 8 — August 2015
  • 2. HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE August 2015 ©2015, Greater Houston Partnership Page 2 it’s a case of holding onto market share; for others, the need to offset in volume what they’ve lost in price. A similar story is playing out at home, with several firms (e.g., Anadarko, Marathon, No- ble Energy) reporting they’ve managed to boost production even though they’ve slashed their exploration budgets. And even though the rig count has plummeted 57 percent from the peak in the Eagle Ford, 56 percent in the Bakken, and 64 percent in the Permian, out- put in the nation’s three most prolific basins has fallen less than 2 percent. The reason: better technology, more experience drilling and fracking, and a keener understanding of the geology associated with tight oil. Five years ago, initial production from an Eagle Ford well averaged 102 barrels per day. In June this year, initial production averaged 717 barrels per day, according to data from the EIA. The increased production has not flowed to the bottom line, however. Exxon, the biggest U.S. energy producer, recently reported its lowest quarterly profit since ’09. Chevron posted its worst quarter in 12 years. Earnings from Shell Oil’s upstream business fell 80 percent compared to the same quarter last year. And many independents such as Cono- coPhillips, Marathon, and Chesapeake reported outright losses for the quarter. Prior to the downturn, conventional wisdom held that the typical well in the Eagle Ford would be profitable as long as oil remained above $70 per barrel. Oil hasn’t traded above that level since November ’14. As prices fell, exploration firms demanded price conces- sions from the service firms, and the break-even point fell as well. Some E&P companies boasted their wells could make a profit at $50 and even $40 per barrel. The importance of that metric has begun to fade, however. The new focus is on corporate overhead, cash flow, debt service, capital discipline, and cost-cutting measures. Investors realize that even though individual wells are profitable, the company overall may be losing money. A gradual realization seems to be emerging that the price of oil will remain low for the foreseeable future. Baker Hughes, in its second quarter earnings report, said headwinds from tumbling oil prices will persist for the rest of the year. The NYMEX futures market shows oil not trading above $56 a barrel until late in ’17. In its earnings report, Shell Oil stated crude prices may remain depressed for the next five years. The industry continues to sell assets and reduce headcounts to better function in a low- price environment. This commodity cycle is following the typical pattern—the first wave of layoffs in the field and on the shop floor, impacting blue-collar and hourly workers; the second wave in the corporate offices, impacting white collar and professional staff. It’s too soon to tell what impact these layoffs will have outside the energy sector. The en- ergy sector—exploration, oil field services, and oil field equipment manufacturing— accounts for 5.0 percent of total nonfarm payroll employment and 14.3 percent of total wages and salaries in the region. Two other sectors closely aligned with energy— fabricated metal products and engineering—account for another 4.5 percent of total em-
  • 3. HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE August 2015 ©2015, Greater Houston Partnership Page 3 6.5 7.1 7.7 8.4 9.2 9.9 3.0 3.4 3.7 4.0 4.3 4.6 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 '15 '20 '25 '30 '35 '40 Millions Population and Employment Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land MSA Population Employment Source: The Perryman Group, Summer 2015 ployment and 4.9 percent of total wages. These sectors are part of Houston’s economic base and as such support a significant number of jobs in the secondary sectors—retail, restaurants, real estate, etc. These jobs are at risk as well. The impact of the downturn on these sectors won’t be apparent until the end of this year or early next year. On the Brighter Side — De- spite the current slump in the energy industry, Houston’s long-term outlook remains bright. The metro area’s real (i.e., net of inflation) gross area product (GAP) is projected to more than double between ’15 and ’40, according to the recent- ly released forecast by Ray Per- ryman, the Waco-based econo- mist who has studied the U.S., Texas and metro economies since the ’70s.1 Perryman forecasts Houston’s real GAP to grow from $504.1 billion in ’15 to $1.15 trillion in ’40―an average annual growth rate of 3.4 percent. The industries with the fastest annual growth rates from ’15 to ’40 are: services (3.9 percent), manufacturing (3.8 percent), and mining (3.3 percent). These fastest-growing industries are also the largest industry sectors by dollar value. Mining is the largest contributor to Houston’s GAP in ’15 at $138.8 billion (23.1 percent of total GAP) followed by services at $113.4 billion (18.9 percent) and manufac- turing at $109.5 billion (18.2 percent). “While the end of the oil surge will affect perfor- mance in the near term,” the Perryman report states, “the Houston area’s economy is far more diversified than in decades past and the down- 1 The Perryman Economic Forecast: Long-Term Outlook for the United States, Texas, Major Metropolitan Areas, and Regions, is available for purchase from The Perryman Group, 800-749-8705 or info@perrymangroup.com. $504.1 $627.4 $754.0 $887.2 $1,022.1 $1,154.1 '15 '20 '25 '30 '35 '40 Source: The Perryman Group, Summer 2015 * '09 constant dollars Real Gross Area Product Forecast Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land MSA $ Billions*
  • 4. HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE August 2015 ©2015, Greater Houston Partnership Page 4 turn in oil prices is not likely to derail economic performance for an extended period of time.” The report also notes the importance of growth in non-energy sectors to compen- sate for the negative impact from lower energy prices. Over the next quarter-century, the metro area is expected to add 3.4 million residents―an average annual growth rate of 1.7 percent. Wage and salary employment is forecasted to gain 1.5 million jobs―an average annual rate of 1.6 percent. The region is expected to account for one-fourth of Texas’ job growth during this period. Employment Update — The Houston metro area gained 55,700 jobs in the 12 months ending June ’15, according to the Texas Workforce Commission (TWC). The corre- sponding 1.9 percent 12-month growth rate is the slowest since November ’11. The em- ployment numbers are somewhat misleading, since all the job gains occurred in the latter half of ’14. Since December, the region has posted a net loss of 5,600 jobs. Employment gains in the service sectors so far this year have not been able to offset losses in the goods producing sectors. Some of the losses date back to the fall of last year. The employment numbers reflect the weakness in the oil patch. The sectors still adding jobs are those which depend heavily on population growth, activity outside the energy sectors, or are benefiting from the momentum built up over the past five years of robust economic ex- pansion. RECENT CHANGES IN HOUSTON EMPLOYMENT Sector Peak Gains/Losses1 Leisure and Hospitality Still Growing +22,900 Business Services Still Growing +7,300 Health Care Still Growing +4,200 Other Services Still Growing +1,800 Information Still Growing +1,300 Manufacturing December ’14 -11,700 Government2 April ’15 -7,700 Mining and Logging December ’14 -6,600 Retail December ’14 -6,600 Construction October ’14 -5,200 Transportation, Warehousing Utilities December ’14 -3,700 Finance & Real Estate October ’14 -2,900 Wholesale Trade December ’14 -2,300 1 Gains measured from December ’14; losses measured from previous peak 2 Primarily includes local education Source: Partnership calculations based on Texas Workforce Commission data.
  • 5. HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE August 2015 ©2015, Greater Houston Partnership Page 5 Still on Top — Houston exported $118.9 billion in goods and commodities in ’14, up $4.0 billion (3.5 percent) from the previous year, according to data recently released by the U.S. International Trade Administration (ITA). Houston led the nation in export sales last year, ahead of New York, Los Angeles, Seattle and Detroit. This marks the third con- secutive year Houston has garnered the top spot. Houston’s exports have grown by $77.2 billion, a 185 percent increase, since ’05. No other U.S. metro has experienced comparable growth. Five sectors accounted for the bulk of Houston’s shipments in ’14: petroleum and coal products ($34.8 billion), basic chemicals ($16.6 billion), oil and gas extraction ($12.5 bil- lion), resins and synthetic rubber ($11.2 billion), and heavy industrial machinery ($7.9 billion). Houston supplied 48.7 percent of Texas exports in ’14, down slightly from 51.2 percent in ’13. By comparison, the state’s next largest exporter, Dallas-Fort Worth, accounted for 11.7 percent of Texas exports. Houston’s and San Antonio’s contributions to state exports have grown significantly since ’05 while Austin’s and Dallas’ have shrunk, a reflection of the greater importance of global trade plays in the Houston and San Antonio economies. Readers should be aware that ITA’s export data differ somewhat from the Houston- Galveston Customs District data often cited in local publications. Customs district data reflect cargo that passes through the region’s ports. ITA data are an “origin of move- ment” (OM) series and reflect the metro from which cargo began its overseas journey. OM includes goods manufactured locally shipped out of Houston, goods manufactured locally that leave the U.S. from a port outside the Houston metro area, and goods pro- duced elsewhere and consolidated in Houston for export. TOP 10 U.S. EXPORTING METROS - $ BILLION Exports Change Since ’05 Rank Metro '05 '14 $ Value Percent 1 Houston, TX 41.748 118.966 77.218 185.0 2 New York, NY 55.565 105.267 49.702 89.4 3 Los Angeles, CA 43.814 75.471 31.657 72.3 4 Seattle, WA 30.676 61.938 31.262 101.9 5 Detroit, MI 40.360 50.279 9.919 24.6 6 Chicago, IL 26.172 47.340 21.168 80.9 7 Miami, FL 20.383 37.969 17.587 86.3 8 New Orleans, LA 4.858 34.882 30.024 618.1 9 Dallas, TX 20.541 28.669 8.128 39.6 10 San Francisco, CA 14.707 26.864 12.157 82.7 Source: U.S. International Trade Administration
  • 6. HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE August 2015 ©2015, Greater Houston Partnership Page 6 SNAPSHOT — HOUSTON’S KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS Building Permits — City of Houston construction permits totaled $8.3 billion in the 12 months ending June ’15, up 10.2 percent from $7.6 billion in the preceding 12 months, according to the city’s Department of Public Works & Engineering Planning & Devel- opment Services. The 12-month building permit total experienced its first uptick in June after three months of declines. Inflation — From June ’14 to June ’15, consumer prices in the Houston-Galveston- Brazoria metro area (Brazoria, Chambers, Fort Bend, Galveston, Harris, Liberty, Mont- gomery and Waller Counties) slipped 0.4 percent, the third consecutive 12-month de- cline. In contrast, core inflation, as measured by the index for all items without food and energy, rose 2.5 percent over the year. Home Sales — Houston realtors set a record in June, selling 9,480 single-family homes, townhomes, condos, duplexes, county homes, high rise units and lots, according to the Hous- ton Association of REALTORS® . The second-best month on record was June ’06, when lo- cal realtors sold 9,287 units. Over the past 12 months, local realtors recorded 90,814 clos- ings. The 12-month pace has held above 90,000 units since October ’14. Purchasing Managers Index — The Houston Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), a short- term leading indicator for regional production, registered 46.7 in June, up from 46.1 in May, according to the latest report from the Institute for Supply Management-Houston (ISM- Houston). Vehicle Sales — Houston-area auto dealers experienced their best June on record, selling 34,424 vehicles in the month, an 8.7 percent increase over the 31,662 sold in June ’14. This brings the second quarter total to 103,231, making it the highest Q2 sales on record, accord- ing to TexAuto Facts, published by InfoNation, Inc. of Sugar Land. Replacement of vehicles lost in Memorial Day weekend flooding contributed to the June performance. Patrick Jankowski and Jenny Philip contributed to this issue of Houston: The Economy at a Glance
  • 7. HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE August 2015 ©2015, Greater Houston Partnership Page 7 Stay Up To Date! To access past issues of Economy at a Glance, please click here. If you are a nonmember and would like to receive this electronic publication, please email your request for Economy at a Glance to echambers@houston.org. Include your name, title and phone number and your company’s name and address. For information about joining the Greater Houston Partnership, call Member Services at 713-844-3683. The Key Economic Indicators table is updated whenever any data change — typically, 11 or so times per month. If you would like to receive these updates by email, usually accom- panied by commentary, please email your request for Key Economic Indicators to echambers@houston.org with the same identifying information. You may request Glance and Indicators in the same email.
  • 8. HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE August 2015 ©2015, Greater Houston Partnership Page 8 HOUSTON MSA NONFARM PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT (000) Change from % Change from Jun '15 May '15 Jun '14 May '15 Jun '14 May '15 Jun '14 Total Nonfarm Payroll Jobs 2,987.0 2,982.7 2,931.3 4.3 55.7 0.1 1.9 Total Private 2,607.6 2,596.1 2,557.4 11.5 50.2 0.4 2.0 Goods Producing 561.1 561.5 567.3 -0.4 -6.2 -0.1 -1.1 Service Providing 2,425.9 2,421.2 2,364.0 4.7 61.9 0.2 2.6 Private Service Providing 2,046.5 2,034.6 1,990.1 11.9 56.4 0.6 2.8 Mining and Logging 108.9 108.1 109.2 0.8 -0.3 0.7 -0.3 Oil & Gas Extraction 55.3 54.7 54.0 0.6 1.3 1.1 2.4 Support Activities for Mining 53.3 52.7 53.9 0.6 -0.6 1.1 -1.1 Construction 205.2 204.4 202.8 0.8 2.4 0.4 1.2 Manufacturing 247.0 249.0 255.3 -2.0 -8.3 -0.8 -3.3 Durable Goods Manufacturing 165.7 168.0 175.0 -2.3 -9.3 -1.4 -5.3 Nondurable Goods Manufacturing 81.3 81.0 80.3 0.3 1.0 0.4 1.2 Wholesale Trade 170.1 170.5 168.7 -0.4 1.4 -0.2 0.8 Retail Trade 302.1 303.3 292.6 -1.2 9.5 -0.4 3.2 Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities 135.3 134.5 133.6 0.8 1.7 0.6 1.3 Utilities 16.1 16.0 15.9 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 Air Transportation 20.5 20.4 20.7 0.1 -0.2 0.5 -1.0 Truck Transportation 25.9 25.7 24.6 0.2 1.3 0.8 5.3 Pipeline Transportation 10.5 10.5 10.3 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.9 Information 33.9 33.8 33.3 0.1 0.6 0.3 1.8 Telecommunications 15.0 14.9 15.1 0.1 -0.1 0.7 -0.7 Finance & Insurance 94.1 93.9 93.7 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.4 Real Estate & Rental and Leasing 52.6 52.1 54.4 0.5 -1.8 1.0 -3.3 Professional & Business Services 477.7 471.2 466.8 6.5 10.9 1.4 2.3 Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 224.6 223.1 217.2 1.5 7.4 0.7 3.4 Legal Services 25.1 25.1 24.1 0.0 1.0 0.0 4.1 Accounting, Tax Preparation, Bookkeeping 23.0 22.9 21.9 0.1 1.1 0.4 5.0 Architectural, Engineering & Related Services 74.2 75.0 74.3 -0.8 -0.1 -1.1 -0.1 Computer Systems Design & Related Services 33.3 32.4 32.3 0.9 1.0 2.8 3.1 Admin & Support/Waste Mgt & Remediation 219.7 215.0 215.0 4.7 4.7 2.2 2.2 Administrative & Support Services 207.8 203.2 204.1 4.6 3.7 2.3 1.8 Employment Services 79.6 77.4 81.4 2.2 -1.8 2.8 -2.2 Educational Services 52.5 54.5 50.7 -2.0 1.8 -3.7 3.6 Health Care & Social Assistance 309.2 308.7 296.7 0.5 12.5 0.2 4.2 Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 34.8 33.4 32.8 1.4 2.0 4.2 6.1 Accommodation & Food Services 278.1 274.2 261.3 3.9 16.8 1.4 6.4 Other Services 106.1 104.5 105.5 1.6 0.6 1.5 0.6 Government 379.4 386.6 373.9 -7.2 5.5 -1.9 1.5 Federal Government 27.9 27.9 27.6 0.0 0.3 0.0 1.1 State Government 70.3 72.4 70.0 -2.1 0.3 -2.9 0.4 State Government Educational Services 37.8 39.8 37.5 -2.0 0.3 -5.0 0.8 Local Government 281.2 286.3 276.3 -5.1 4.9 -1.8 1.8 Local Government Educational Services 194.9 199.9 190.6 -5.0 4.3 -2.5 2.3 SOURCE: Texas Workforce Commission
  • 9. HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE August 2015 ©2015, Greater Houston Partnership Page 9 Houston Economic Indicators A Service of the Greater Houston Partnership Most Year % Most Year % Month Recent Earlier Change Recent Earlier Change ENERGY U.S. Active Rotary Rigs Jul '15 866 1,876 -53.8 1,108 * 1,821 * -39.2 Spot Crude Oil Price ($/bbl, West Texas Intermediate) Jul '15 51.13 103.83 -50.8 52.89 * 101.51 * -47.9 Spot Natural Gas ($/MMBtu, Henry Hub) Jul '15 2.81 4.10 -31.5 2.81 * 4.65 * -39.6 UTILITIES AND PRODUCTION Houston Purchasing Managers Index Jun '15 46.7 52.4 -10.9 46.4 * 57.3 * -19.0 Nonresidential Electric Current Sales (Mwh, CNP Service Area) Jun '15 5,015,448 4,675,695 7.3 26,844,566 25,417,761 5.6 CONSTRUCTION Total Building Contracts ($, Houston MSA) Jun '15 1,646,848,000 4,353,370,000 -62.2 8,912,790,000 16,289,032,000 -45.3 Nonresidential Jun '15 832,402,000 3,443,662,000 -75.8 3,804,151,000 11,233,890,000 -66.1 Residential Jun '15 814,446,000 909,708,000 -10.5 5,108,639,000 5,055,142,000 1.1 Building Permits ($, City of Houston) Jun '15 719,998,873 561,461,160 28.2 3,865,906,735 4,205,528,707 -8.1 Nonresidential Jun '15 486,278,855 402,775,097 20.7 2,520,320,515 2,828,230,849 -10.9 New Nonresidential Jun '15 191,547,764 181,382,592 5.6 1,356,741,981 1,754,925,253 -22.7 Nonresidential Additions/Alterations/Conversions Jun '15 294,731,091 221,392,505 33.1 1,163,578,534 1,073,305,596 8.4 Residential Jun '15 233,720,018 158,686,063 47.3 1,345,586,220 1,377,297,858 -2.3 New Residential Jun '15 208,987,786 138,147,264 51.3 1,223,002,015 1,223,993,928 -0.1 Residential Additions/Alterations/Conversions Jun '15 24,732,232 20,538,799 20.4 122,584,205 153,303,930 -20.0 Multiple Listing Service (MLS) Activity Property Sales Jun '15 9,480 9,177 3.3 43,198 43,645 -1.0 Median Sales Price - SF Detached Jun '15 225,000 214,500 4.9 209,933 * 194,165 * 8.1 Active Listings Jun '15 31,963 29,513 8.3 29,175 * 28,406 * 2.7 EMPLOYMENT (Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown MSA) Nonfarm Payroll Employment Jun '15 2,987,000 2,931,300 1.9 2,967,740 * 2,884,980 * 2.9 Goods Producing (Natural Resources/Mining/Const/Mfg) Jun '15 561,100 567,300 -1.1 570,860 0 557,940 * 2.3 Service Providing Jun '15 2,425,900 2,364,000 2.6 2,396,880 0 2,327,040 * 3.0 Unemployment Rate (%) - Not Seasonally Adjusted Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown MSA Jun '15 4.5 5.3 4.3 * 5.2 * Texas Jun '15 4.4 5.4 4.3 * 5.4 * U.S. Jun '15 5.5 6.3 5.6 * 6.5 * TRANSPORTATION Port of Houston Authority Shipments (Short Tons) Jun '15 3,855,332 4,023,010 -4.2 24,568,099 22,915,308 7.2 Air Passengers (Houston Airport System) Jun '15 4,976,040 4,774,405 4.2 26,635,902 26,026,366 2.3 Domestic Passengers Jun '15 3,982,190 3,846,786 3.5 21,516,354 21,098,151 2.0 International Passengers Jun '15 993,850 927,619 7.1 5,119,548 4,928,215 3.9 Landings and Takeoffs Jun '15 67,853 68,909 -1.5 328,755 335,892 -2.1 Air Freight (metric tons) Jun '15 32,173 35,327 -8.9 209,188 210,457 -0.6 Enplaned Jun '15 16,392 18,652 -12.1 108,927 111,556 -2.4 Deplaned Jun '15 15,782 16,675 -5.4 100,261 98,902 1.4 CONSUMERS New Car and Truck Sales (Units, Houston MSA) Jun '15 34,424 31,662 8.7 188,818 195,164 -3.3 Cars Jun '15 13,946 16,798 -17.0 77,752 86,850 -10.5 Trucks, SUVs and Commercials Jun '15 20,478 14,864 37.8 111,066 108,314 2.5 Total Retail Sales ($000,000, Houston MSA, NAICS Basis) 4Q14 34,260 37,618 -8.9 123 116 5.6 Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers ('82-'84=100) Houston-Galveston-Brazoria CMSA Jun '15 213.896 214.668 -0.4 212.062 * 212.836 * -0.4 United States Jun '15 238.638 238.343 0.1 236.625 * 236.384 * 0.1 Hotel Performance (Houston MSA) Occupancy (%) 4Q14 68.1 65.9 71.8 * 69.1 * Average Room Rate ($) 4Q14 106.52 101.26 5.2 106.87 * 101.19 * 5.6 Revenue Per Available Room ($) 4Q14 72.49 66.77 8.6 76.76 * 69.92 * 9.8 YEAR-TO-DATE TOTAL or YTD AVERAGE*MONTHLY DATA
  • 10. HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE August 2015 ©2015, Greater Houston Partnership Page 10 Sources Rig Count Baker Hughes Incorporated Spot WTI, Spot Natural Gas U.S. Energy Information Admin. Houston Purchasing Managers National Association of Index Purchasing Management – Houston, Inc. Electricity CenterPoint Energy Building Construction Contracts McGraw-Hill Construction City of Houston Building Permits Building Permit Department, City of Houston MLS Data Houston Association of Realtors Employment, Unemployment Texas Workforce Commission Port Shipments Port of Houston Authority Aviation Aviation Department, City of Houston Car and Truck Sales TexAuto Facts Report, InfoNation, Inc., Sugar Land TX Retail Sales Texas Comptroller’s Office Consumer Price Index U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Hotels PKF Consulting/HospitalityAsset Advisors International Postings, Foreclosures Foreclosure Information &Listing Service
  • 11. HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE August 2015 ©2015, Greater Houston Partnership Page 11 -150 -120 -90 -60 -30 0 30 60 90 120 150 2,000 2,100 2,200 2,300 2,400 2,500 2,600 2,700 2,800 2,900 3,000 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 12-MonthChange(000) NonfarmPayrollEmployment(000) Source: Texas Workforce Commission Nonfarm Payroll Employment, Houston MSA 12-Month Change Total Payroll Employment 1,800 1,900 2,000 2,100 2,200 2,300 2,400 2,500 420 460 500 540 580 620 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 Service-ProvidingJobs(000s) Goods-ProducingJobs(000s) Source: Texas Workforce Commission Goods-Producing and Service-Providing Employment Houston MSA Goods-Producing Jobs Service-Providing Jobs
  • 12. HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE August 2015 ©2015, Greater Houston Partnership Page 12 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 %CivilianLaborForce Source: Texas Workforce Commission Unemployment Rate - Houston, Texas and U.S. Houston Texas U.S. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 NaturalGas,$/mcf WTI,$barrel Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration Spot Crude and Natural Gas Prices Monthly Averages WTI Natural Gas