MitKat India Risk Review 2017

Making Business Sense in a Connected World...
The interdependence of geo-politics
and business interests creates
opportunities and risks for businesses. A
wide array of political, socio-economic,
societal, legal/regulatory and
environmental risks impact businesses.
Understanding and mitigating these risk
isvitaltorunningabusiness.
Geopolitical risk assessment allows
business owners to track and analyze
current global and local events/trends,
to comprehend the impact of these as
wellastheopportunitiestheypresent.
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India Risk Matrix
India Risk Review 2017 www.mitkatadvisory.com
IMPACT
LIKELIHOOD
Geopolitical Risks
Socio-economic Risks
Technology Risks
Economic Risks
Safety Risks
Environmental Risks
Change from 2016 to 2017
Disclaimer: MitKat's risk ratings are a quantitative and
qualitative product of the likelihood of risks and their
impact on the conduct of business. This rating may differ
significantly from the national average, for specific
regionswithinIndia,andfromonebusinesstotheother.
1
2
3
4
5
1 2 3 4 5
Air Pollution
Natural Hazards
Bio-diversity Loss
Waste Disposal
Water Scarcity
Pandemics
Cross-border
Terrorism
Insurgency
in Northeast
Electoral Violence
Public
Protests
Unrest in J & K
Center State
Relations
Islamic State
Threat
Interstate
Conflict
Communal
Conflicts
Religious
Intolerance
Maoism
Crime
Caste
based violence
Political
Unrest
Women
Safety
Corruption
Cyber Attacks
Internet of
Things
Mega Data
Breaches
Cyber
Terrorism
DDOS Attacks
Ransomware
Business
Process
Compromise
Augmented
Reality
Fiscal
Deficit
Oil Price
Volatility
Complex
Taxation
Energy Security
Currency
Fluctuation
Bank
Frauds
Workforce Issues
Demonitization
Structural
Safety
Fire &
Industrial
Safety
Rail Safety
Road Safety
Pandemics &
Diseases
Food & Water
Safety

High Risk Medium Risk Low Risk
India Risk Map 2017: Security&SafetyPerspective
Risk Evaluation Factors
§ Extremism
§ Natural Disasters
§ Crime
§ Civil Disturbance
§ Environment, Health & Diseases
§ Infrastructure
§ Emergency Services
High Risk Medium Risk Low Risk
Disclaimer: MitKat's risk ratings are a quantitative and
qualitative product of the likelihood of risks and their
impact on the conduct of business. This rating may differ
significantly from the national average, for specific
regionswithinIndia,andfromonebusinesstotheother.

Chairman's Message
Lt Gen Sudhir Sharma
PVSM, AVSM, YSM, VSM (retd), Chairman
Thepastyearhasbeensignificantfromthegeo-strategicaswellasbusinessperspective.TheunravelingoftheSAARCdueto
Pakistan's continued dalliance with terrorism and the downtrend in Sino-Indian relations due to China's stance on the NSG
has changed the power dynamics of South Asia. This trend is likely to continue in 2017; with India taking firmer steps in its
lookEastpolicyandcloserintegrationwithASEANandPacificRimcountries.GSTbilland'MakeinIndia'policieswillgivean
impetus to the economy. With the government keen to make a success of the demonetization experiment, it will make
effortstostimulategrowthandfurtherimprovethe'easeofdoingbusiness'strategy. Manyresurgentstateswillgoalloutto
wooFDIandenablebusinesspartnerships,bystreamliningandimprovingpolicyguidelines.Withelectionsinmanystates,
itwillbeadefiningyearofsteadygrowthbutaslightlyfragilesecuritylandscape.

Securityneedscollaborationatindividual,organizational,industrial,nationalandgloballevels;networkingandknowledge
sharing are the key drivers for mitigating challenges in today's complex security environment. ASIS International works on
bringing together security professionals to facilitate exchange of ideas and knowledge sharing so that individuals and
organizations can manage risks better. Each of our 38,000 worldwide members is responsible for protecting vital assets –
people,property,and/orinformation–invariousindustries,bothpublicandprivate.
2016willgodowninthehistoryastheyearofunpredictability;beittheBrexitinUnitedKingdomorchangeatthehelminthe
US government or closer to home, the demonetization move. The year also witnessed innovative terrorist attacks in non-
traditional geographical areas. 2017 brings with it more uncertainties, with more radical political personalities taking up
prominent positions in mainstream politics, the issue of migration dominating politics in Europe and America, and posing a
dilemma not just for countries but companies too. Security, in general, and the issue of terrorism will continue to dominate
headlines. More than the issue of foreign fighters, the world will battle the issue of homegrown radicalization. Even as the
physical threat to organizations remains high, dangers in the cyber realm will add an additional dimension to security
concernsin2017.
ASIS-Mumbai Chapter has come together in a unique collaboration with MitKat Advisory Services to
provideacomprehensiveroundupofthevariousrisksthatbusinessesinIndiafacetoday;intheformof
theIndiaRiskReview2017.Wehopethatsecurityprofessionalsandorganizationsbenefitfromit.
Message from ASIS Mumbai India Chapter #257

India Risk Review 2017 www.mitkatadvisory.com[1]
investment climate. The rise of states as catalyst for growth
wouldbethehighlightoftheeconomiclandscapeof2017.
Withadesiretomaketherecentre-monetizationexperimenta
success,thegovernmentcanbeexpectedtotakeaseriesofbold
stepstostimulategrowthandconsumerconfidence.Thiscould
translateintoasoftertaxregime,besideseasieraccesstocapital
andhithertoclosedmarkets.Theeffectofde-globalization,the
slowdown in world trade and creeping protectionism, coupled
with ultra-nationalism, could affect the outsourcing and IT
sector in the medium term. However since exports are not the
keydriveroftheIndianeconomy,theeffectswouldbelimitedin
scope.
executive summary
OverallBusinessClimateinIndiain2017
India has emerged as one of the fastest growing major
economiesintheworld.Thecountryhassteppedupitseffortsto
improve the overall business climate and has kicked off macro
reforms in monetary policies and its regulatory structure. The
government has also taken steps to improve the ease of doing
business. According to the World Bank's annual ease of doing
business report published in 2016, India has implemented a set
ofreformsleadingtoconsiderableimprovementinthebusiness
environment. Looking at key macro indicators of - Getting
Electricity, Paying Taxes, Trading Across Borders and Enforcing
Contracts - the country has made tangible reforms. India is
placed in the top 50 global economies on three of the ten
pointers – Getting Credit, Protecting Minority Investors and
Getting Electricity. However, due to overlap of jurisdictions,
excessiveregulationsandbureaucraticimpediments,Indiawill
continue to be a comparatively difficult country for rapid
business growth in the foreseeable future. On the plus side,
Indian states are on a reform and fast growth trajectory,
creating favourable conditions for investments and a benign
supportiveregulatoryframework. Infactsomestateswillshow
consistentdoubledigitgrowth,givinganoverallimpetustothe
Indian economy besides creating a healthy and competitive
Top5risksforbusinessesin2017
PublicProtests/SocialUnrest
Due to the diverse demographic landscape, dissent focused
around caste and religion and multiple socio-economic
differentiators is deeply embedded in Indian society. The Jat
agitationinseveralpartsofHaryanainFebruary2016resultedin
anestimatedlossofaroundRs20,000-30,000croretothestate

executive summary
coffers. Several parts of Karnataka including the state capital
Bengaluru witnessed disruptive demonstrations in August-
September 2016 due release of water from the Cauvery River to
neighbouring Tamil Nadu state. The unrest entailed blockades
of key highways and roads, suspension of state railway and
Bengaluru metro services and widespread vandalism. Hardline
regional groups could potentially trigger unrest, since the
resolution to some of these disputes remains largely
unresolved. Furthermore the political landscape has become
polarized and more strident in the past year. The coming state
electionsandtheoppositionofmanypartiestore-monetization
is likely to exacerbate matters, and create fissure in the social
polity of the nation, affecting business growth. Economic
growth unless linked to job growth is not going to appease the
restless youth of the country. Finding productive employment
for the millions of young people entering the job market will be
oneofthegreatestchallengesof2017andbeyond
With the emphasis on digital India, e-commerce and mobile
payments, especially after demonetization, cyber security has
gained further importance. With business operations
CyberSecurity
becoming inter-linked through increasing digitization,
challenges emanating from cyber security are bound to
manifest in the coming years. Cyber security affects all
organizations, ranging from start-ups to multinationals.
Previously developed nations were the prime targets of cyber
attacks. However, the trend has changed, and firms based in
India have also been increasingly, targeted and are par with
global companies in terms of being impacted by cyber-attacks.
In one of the significant attacks in 2016, around 320 thousand
debitcardsofvariousIndianbankswerecompromised.
In light of the recent cyber attacks, the government is in the
process of setting up a national cyber security structure which
will designate agencies to monitor the threats and strengthen
India's cyber ecosystem. However, going forward in 2017, India
requiresreformedcybersecuritylawsthatwouldmakeiteasyto
protect critical infrastructure, and empower agencies to
manage incidents effectively. Thus cyber security would need
far greater emphasis in 2017 and unless addressed would
constituteabusinessrisk.

executive summary
BriberyandCorruption
NaturalDisasters
Despite the central government efforts to bring transparency
and limit government interference, bribery and corruption
continue to pose a serious risk to the business climate.
Corruption in India has raised transaction costs, as well as the
cost of operations for businesses, mainly in the real estate,
defence and infrastructure enterprises. Companies are likely to
face red-tape, petty corruption and bribery when dealing with
public services. Some of the other sectors, which will remain
impacted by corruption, include metal and mining, power and
utilities sector. Overall due to expected regulations on reduced
usage of cash, there would be a marginal improvement in the
overallcorruptionindex.
Major metropolitan cities continue to remain under-prepared
tohandlesevereflooding,resultingfromtheannualmonsoons,
which usually run from June-September. Last year, many parts
of Mumbai, Delhi and Gurgaon, Hyderabad, and Kolkata were
submerged due to waterlogging, resulting in severe disruption
to businesses. The city administrations need to reform and
modernize their approach towards urban governance. The
usual aspects of water administration, drainage and sewage
systems and public transport facilities need serious revamp,
especially to qualify for the “Smart Cities' tag. It is therefore
imperative for the firms to strengthen their existing business
continuity plans to overcome the challenges likely to present
themselves during the monsoon season in 2017. Furthermore
therewouldbeaneedtofurtherstrengthenprocessesrelatedto
fireandnaturaldisasters.
Althoughseveralsuccessfulsecurityoperationsin2016haveput
the Maoist insurgents in a defensive mode, the Naxals have
conducted some counter-offensive attacks targeting security
forces as well as civilians. There have been reports of growing
MaoistpresenceinthesouthernstatesofKerala,Karnatakaand
Tamil Nadu. In a major Maoist-led strike, the insurgents in
December torched around 70 heavy vehicles including three
construction-relatedequipmentsatanironmineinSurjagad,in
Maharashtra's Gadchiroli district. The incident is considered to
beoneofthesignificantattacksagainstabusinessenterprisein
Maoistaffectedareas.
Maoist/NaxalInsurgency

executive summary
2016 witnessed a decline in Maoist-related violence as
compared to the previous year, due to better deployment of
security personnel in the affected regions, loss of cadres and
leaders;combinedwithprotracteddevelopmentmeasures,and
empowering of local communities to mitigate the threat of
Naxal violence. Nonetheless, it is likely that the Maoist threat
will remain as one of the biggest security threat to businesses
operatingintheaffectedregionsin2017.
Top5enablersforbusinessesin2017
Demonetization
The demonetization of high-value Indian currency notes in
November2016wasplannedasbigticketreform.Themovehas
brought into the banking system a lot of undisclosed cash. The
move has facilitated the increased usage of digital payments
and is hoped to reduce the reliance on cash transactions. India
planstousetheuniqueidentificationsystemas thebackboneof
cashless transaction in the future. The move though path
breaking, is controversial, having caused a serious dent to the
low-incomeruralandagriculturaleconomy. Thejuryisstillout
on its overall impact but appears to have had a positive impact.
Apart from giving a boost to digitization, the move has the
potential for greater financial transparency, higher tax
collectionsandconsequentloweringofthefiscaldeficit.
Goods and Services Tax (GST) is a planned system of indirect
taxation aimed at making India one unified common market.
Once rolled out, the industry and business in the country will
benefit immensely from the progressive taxation regime. The
principal benefit to the businesses across the sectors will be
uniformity of tax rates and structures across the country, thus
increasingandeasingtheeaseofdoingofbusiness.Theindustry
in the country is ready to accept the new tax regime, as it will
terminate some archaic tax laws; and is considered to be one of
the game changers for the Indian economy. GST roll out in 2017
isexpectedtogiveupto1to2%increaseinGDPinafewyears.
WithNPA'sofbanksbeingbroughtundersomecontrol,capital
availability is likely to be a big catalyst for growth in 2017.
Lending to the medium and small scale sector is poised for a
GoodsandServicesTax
EasierAvailabilityofCapital

executive summary
huge growth at affordable terms. Easier housing loans would
also give a boost to the infrastructure sector. Re-monetization
wouldalsomakeadditionalcapitalavailablefortheagricultural
and rural sector. With states rolling out the red carpet for
investors, capital would be more readily available in 2017, but
wouldbespreadoutacrosstheindustryandnotberestrictedto
fewfavouredcorporateentitiesashithertofore.
Given the current governments desire to generate a level
playing field and give impetus to 'Make in India,' a more
business friendly compliance and moderate tax regime can be
forecastfor2017.
India has just signed an avoidance of double taxation protocol
with Singapore on similar lines that it had signed with
Mauritius.Thisisasignificantstepandwouldpavethewayfora
just tax regime, triggering genuine investment and tie ups. A
simplerandlowercorporatetaxandcapitalgainsruleswouldbe
abigbusinessenablerfor2017.
2016 witnessed a proliferation of the usage of 4G smart phones
MoreBenignComplianceandTaxRegime
MobileandInternetPenetration
in India. With tariff rates plummeting steeply, the usage of
smartphones with versatile apps will grow exponentially. The
enhanced smartphone based connectivity, and data reach will
provide for huge opportunity for data stacks to be optimized
and connect seamlessly with consumers. Internet penetration
andmultiplepaymentgatewayswouldgreatlyhelpbusinessto
growandattractconsumers.
Huge growth in the middle class numbers would stimulate
demand and consumer spending. With rise in incomes
consequent to the 7th Pay commission, coupled with
government spending on infrastructure and Smart Cities; there
would be multiple growth opportunities in the retail and
manufacturing sector. Renewable energy, agriculture, rural
growth would also create and be a catalyst for demand and
business confidence. With numerous airports and additional
roads planned for tier two cities, railways and freight corridors
coming up, cost-efficient movement of goods would push
growth of capital goods besides having a trickledown effect of
infrastructurespend.
GrowingMiddleClass

executive summary
Infrastructure
PowerSector
The Indian government has announced a massive $376.53
billioninvestmentininfrastructureoveraperiodofthreeyears,
which entails $120.49 billion for developing 27 industrial
clusters and an additional $75.30 billion for road, railway and
port connectivity ventures. In 2016, India climbed 19 places in
World Bank's Logistics Performance Index (LPI), to an
impressive 35th position amongst 160 countries.The
government is further planning to enhance regional
connectivity by setting up 50 new airports in the next three
years; at least 10 would be operational in 2017. There remains a
huge gap between potential and current demand in this sector,
and the prospects and possibilities of growth of infrastructure
marketarehuge.
Consistent and abundant power is one of the most critical
componentsfordecisiveeconomicgrowth.India'spowersector
isbelievedtooneofthemostdiversifiedone-sourcesvaryfrom
coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear power to non-conventional
sources such as wind, solar, agricultural and domestic waste.
Thesectoriswitnessingatransformationandhasredefinedthe
industry outlook. From the investment scenario, the industry
has attracted $10.48 billion in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
from 2000-2016. Furthermore, the government has identified
power sector as a medium to promote sustained industrial
growth. This sector is poised for further growth in 2017, as it
carriesthepotentialtoattractover$220billioninnext4-5years.
The Indian defence sector is likely to carry forward the growth
momentumin2017,thatitwitnessedinthepreviousyears.India
in 2016 became the fourth largest spender in defense. The
government's special drive to defense manufacturing, in sync
withthe'MakeinIndia'campaign,hasattractedtheattentionof
major global defence firms. The government has liberalized up
the sector by increasing the FDI cap in defence to 49%. The
defence market is estimated to become $620 billion by 2022.
Furthermore, around $130 billion worth of contracts are
projected to be awarded locally. Major industrial organizations
suchastheTatas,theMahindras,theHerogroup,AnilAmbani's
ADAG,MukeshAmbani'sRelianceIndustries,BharatForgeand
theHindujagrouphavealreadyinvestedcapitalinthissector.
DefenseSector
Sectorswithpotentialforgrowth

executive summary
Geopolitical
Risk
Socio-economic
Risk
Technology
Risk
Economic
Risk
Safety
Risk
Environmental
Risk
Cross-border Terrorism
Insurgency in Northeast
Unrest in J&K
Interstate Conflicts
Islamic State Threat
Electoral Violence
Center State Relations
Public Protests
Women Safety
Communal Conflicts
Crime
Religious Intolerance
Corruption
Maoism
Caste based Violence
Internet of Things
Ransomware
Cyber Attacks
DDOS Attacks
Cyber Terrorism
Mega Data Breaches
Fiscal Deficit
Demonitization
Oil Price Volatility
Workforce Issues
Energy Security
Complex Taxation
Bank Frauds
Currency Fluctuation
Structural Safety
Fire & Industrial Safety
Food & Water Safety
Rail Safety
Road Safety
Natural Hazards
Air Pollution
Waste Disposal
Bio-diversity Loss
Water Scarcity
Business Process
Compromise
Augmented Reality
Pandemics

IMPACT
LIKELIHOOD
1
2
3
4
5
1 2 3 4 5
Islamic State
Threat
Interstate
Conflict
Cross-border
Terrorism
Insurgency
in Northeast
Electoral Violence
Public
Protests
Unrest in J & K
Center State
Relations
India will remain at risk from state
sponsored cross-border terrorism; this
would, for the most part, be confined to
the state of J&K. In West Bengal and in
some states of Northeast India, growing
radicalisation will be a cause of concern.
Left Wing Extremism will see a further
decline across all affected states.
- Maj Gen Dhruv C Katoch, SM, VSM
Editor: SALUTE Magazine
Former Director, CLAWS
Geopolitical Risks
0 2 4 6 8 10
Cross-border Terrorism
Insurgency in North East
Inter-state Conflict
Public Protests
Islamic State Threat
Center State Relations
Electoral Violence
Unrest in J&K
2017 2016

Cross-borderTerrorism
Forhalfadecadenow,thenorthernstateofJammuandKashmir
has been witnessing the most number of cross border terrorist
strikes while being marred with the highest number of
casualties. In 2016, the worst attack took place at Uri
(Baramulla), where four heavily armed terrorists attacked an
armycampthatresultedinthedeathofseventeenIndianArmy
personnel.
Pakistani forces have consistently sheltered militant groups
and the current hostility between the two countries is likely to
provokeariseininsurgencyacrosstheLineofControl(LoC).The
Minister of State of Home Affairs confirmed the claim that an
estimated two hundred active terrorists groups operate in
JammuandKashmir,with105ofthemhavinginfiltratedin2016
alone. Between January and November 2016, Indian security
forces have killed 148 terrorists, the most since 2010. However,
74 security personnel too have lost their lives, the highest such
fatalitiesinasingleyearsince2009.
Cross border terrorism is on the rise, especially post April–May
sincethemeltingofsnowatthemountainpassesmakesiteasier
for militants to cross over. The unrest in Jammu and Kashmir
seen earlier this year may incite anti-nationalism amongst a
section of the local population, which can increase the
likelihood of infiltration incidents. On the Punjab and
Rajasthanfront,thevastborderregionmakesmonitoringthese
swathsoflandchallenging.Moreoverterroristoutfitshaveused
the relatively porous borders with Bangladesh and Nepal to
enterthecountry.
Geopolitical Risks
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2013 2014 2015 2016
LOC IB Total
250
200
150
100
50
0
Ceasefireagreementviolations2013-2016
Source: SATP

includingtheNationalHumanRightsCommission.Anall-party
meet chaired by the Union Home Ministry and the Prime
Ministerfailedtocometoaconsensusregardingtheremovalof
the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Acts (AFSPA) in J&K. While
the curfew was lifted in most regions by early October, several
incidentsofunrestmarredthefollowingmonths.
Geopolitical Risks
UnrestinJammu&Kashmir
2016 saw a record growth in homegrown militancy and
radicalization of the Kashmiri population. The coalition of the
Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Bharatiya Janata Party
(BJP)inKashmirandJammuregionsrespectivelywasviewedin
a negative light by many Kashmiris. This has led to a growing
influenceoftheHizbulMujahideenamongsttheMuslimyouth.
The death of Burhan Wani, commander of Hizbul Mujahideen,
during a planned security forces operation in July triggered a
large-scale mobilization of Kashmiri youth against the
government machinery. Protests erupted in various parts of
Kashmir, prompting an additional deployment of security
personnel. There was a complete breakdown in law and order,
especially on the day of Wani's funeral, where over 200,000
people attended his last rites.An unprecedented curfew of 53
dayswasobservedintendistrictsoftheValley.
Anestimated85civilianswerekilledandmanymoreleftinjured
inclasheswithsecuritypersonnel.Around1,274CRPFpersonnel
and 2,747 police personnel were injured in the clashes. Over 32
installations were set ablaze by protestors. The use of shotguns
('pellet'guns)byCRPFandStatePoliceresultedinincreasedeye
injuries and was condemned by various organizations,
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2013 2014 2015 2016
20
61
100
163
113110
181
260
174
193
32
20
13
51
41
84
Civilian Fatalities Security Forces FatalitiesTerrorist Fatalities Total Fatalities
Source: SATP
Fatalitiesinterroristrelatedviolencewithin
Jammu&Kashmir

In July 2016, over 20 individuals were reported missing from
Palakkad in Kerela. A Daesh operative, Subahani Haja Moideen,
confirmed the presence of a Maharashtra based couple in Iraq.
SyrianArabArmysourceshaveconfirmedasurgeinthenumberof
Indian fighters, who have lost their lives in Palmyra, Syria.
Individuals pledging allegiance to Daesh have been arrested in
Hyderabad, Hoogly and Kannur, where further investigations
revealed that concrete plans and logistics were in place to carry
outattacksandassassinations.
Daesh has also gained a strategic foothold due to allegiance of
groupssuchastheIndianMujahideen(IM)andAnsar-utTawhidfi
Biladal-Hind,havingsimilarSalafistideology.TheKashmirissue
has invited the ire of Daesh, as through its online magazine,
Dabiq, it has called for Kashmir to be included in the Caliphate.
Army officials have warned of its increasing influencing on the
KashmiriyouthafterDaeshblackflagsweredisplayedinSrinagar.
Geopolitical Risks
IslamicStateThreatinIndia
TheincreasingnumberofattacksattributedtotheIslamicStatein
neighboring Pakistan, Afghanistan and Bangladesh has
established the fact that the Caliphate is focused on spreading its
physicalpresenceinSouthAsia.Indiahasbyandlargebeenfreeof
ISattacks,howeverrecentdevelopmentswithinIndiaandabroad
haveincreasedtheIS('Daesh')threatinIndia.
The southern parts of the country are more vulnerable to Daesh
ideology, since a large portion of its migrant population works in
West Asian countries. In 2016 the National Intelligence Agency
referred to a total of 50 individuals as Daesh sympathizers and
supporters. Out of which, 11 were from Maharashtra, 11 from
Telangana,7fromKarnataka,4fromUttarakhand,6fromKerela,
2 from West Bengal, 2 from Uttar Pradesh, 2 from Bihar, 2 from
Tamil Nadu and 1 each from Rajasthan, Delhi, Jammu and
Kashmir, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh. There has been
confirmation of Indian citizens travelling to Syria and Iraq to join
theIslamicState,emphasizingonitsincreasinginfluenceinIndia.

Geopolitical Risks
KeyIslamicStatearrestsinIndia
Andhra
Pradesh
Arunachal
Pradesh
Assam
Bihar
Chhattisgarh
Goa
Gujarat
Haryana
Himachal
Pradesh
Jammu & Kashmir
Jharkhand
Karnataka
Kerala
Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
Manipur
Meghalaya
Mizoram
Nagaland
Orissa
Punjab
Rajasthan
Sikkim
Tamil
Nadu
Tripura
Uttar Pradesh
Uttarakhand
West
Bengal
Delhi
Telangana
February 6th – Two alleged IS operatives
arrested in Delhi and Silchar
November 17th – Alleged IS operative
arrested in Sikar. A Kashmir link connected
to the Hyderabad module was uncovered
§May 23rd – Two Kalyan youths who were
promoted to head IS operations in India
were arrested in Thane.
§July 12th – A Parbhani based IS module
was intercepted after an arrest by an IS
recruit in Parbhani.
§July 23rd – A suspected IS recruit was
arrested in Kalyan on charges of carrying
out attacks. Another individual with links
to Islamic Research Foundation and IS was
arrested in Navi Mumbai
February 4th – Indian Mujahideen
connection in IS Recruitment within Bhatkal
§July 8th – 20 people reported missing from
Palakkad and are believed to have joint IS in
Syria.
§October 2nd – Six individuals were arrested
on charges of terrorism with links to IS in
Kannur
February 5th – Key arrest of an IS instigator
in Hardoi
§1st June- An engineering student was
arrested in Hoogly with links to IS and for
plotting to assassinate an MLA
§July 5th- Suspected terrorist with links to IS
and Bangladeshi terror group JMB arrested
at Bardhaman. Another IS operative was
arrested at Labhpur
February 1st 2016 - IS sympathizer arrested
in Bhopal
June 29th – 11 suspected individuals with
links to IS detained by NIA. Explosives and
ammunitions were also recovered
§October 6th – Key arrest of an IS fighter who
fought in Iraq and Syria arrested in Tirunelvel
§October 12th – Three suspected IS
sympathizers arrested in Coimbatore
Source: MitKat Advisory Services

The trans-border linkages that these insurgent groups have,
and strategic alliances among them, have acted as force
multipliers and have made the conflict dynamics all the more
intricate. With demands of these insurgent groups ranging
from secession to autonomy and the right to self-
determination; and a plethora of ethnic groups clamoring for
special rights and the protection of their distinct identity, the
regionisboundtoremainturbulent.
Geopolitical Risks
InsurgencyintheNorth-EastStates
Northeast region of India continues to witness insurgent
activities, with Assam, Manipur and Meghalaya recording the
highest number of casualties. Reportedly, in 2016 alone there
have been 153 fatalities of which 13 were security personnel.
Adding to this, the demonetization drive by the central
government has left several groups in the region with no
legitimate currency to fund their operations. Resultantly,
militant groups are compensating by aiding drug smugglers
fromacrosstheborderandindulginginextortionactivities.
There is a growing concern regarding the infiltration of Islamic
militants into Assam and Meghalaya from Bangladesh, posing
as refugees and illegal immigrants. June 2016, the National
Register of Citizens (NRC) investigation uncovered over 27,000
illegal immigrants in Dhubri, Assam, alone. The Assam
government has been working on a program called “Detect-
Delete-Deport”. This move has however hurt the sentiments of
several Muslims, including religious heads. This sentiment
could be an ideal breeding ground for recruiting Muslims into
extremistorganizationssuchastheJMBandHUJI-B.
Arunachal
Pradesh
Assam
Nagaland
Manipur
MizoramTripura
Meghalaya
84
33
31
6
9
Source: SATP
NumberofFatalitiesinIndia’sNortheast-2016

Maharashtra,theMarathacommunityhadtakenoutlargescale
silent protests to advocate an increase in reservation for the
community in educational institutes and government jobs.
Members of the Christian community also carried out silent
protests in Delhi, West Bengal and Odisha to protest
persecutionbyvariousfundamentalistgroups.
Protests over Natural Resources: The southern state of
Karnataka and its capital Bengaluru witnessed one of the most
disruptive civilian protests of 2016. Violent demonstrations
during August-September, 2016, were over a Supreme Court
verdict directing Karnataka state to release water from the
CauveryRivertotheneighboringstateofTamilNadu.Therewas
severe disruption to businesses, mainly in Bengaluru, as well as
blockadeofkeyhighwaysandroadways.
Public protests often arise out of genuine grievances, but get
hijacked by local politics and vested interest groups. It is likely
thatprotestsoversomeoralloftheseissuescouldrecurin2017,
assomeofthesedisputeslargelyremainunresolved.
Geopolitical Risks
PublicProtests
Political parties and their affiliate groups along with student
unions have also contributed significantly to the protests in
2016. These protests are significant in terms of their number of
participants,aswellastheirimpact.
StudentProtests:ThearrestofKanhaiyaKumar,StudentUnion
leader of Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), and the
subsequentlinkingoftheseproteststotheABVP(studentwing
of the BJP) had prompted protests by students across major
universities. JNU was once again rocked by protests following
the case of a missing student, Najeeb Ahmed. Caste disputes
within universities have also sparked protests, as seen in the
death of a post-doctoral Dalit student in the University of
Hyderabad.
Religious & Caste based Protests: The Gau Rakshak (cow
protection) campaign has advocated the beef ban, persecuted
scoresofMuslimsandDalits,especiallyinGujaratandHaryana,
and led to protests across the country as well as at the national
capital, New Delhi. The Jat agitation in Haryana (demanding
reservation in government jobs) resulted in open fire on
protestors by the police forces, killing one individual. In

This is linked to another sensitive issue in Punjab, that is the
alleged seizure of farmlands for building the SYL canal.
Interstate conflicts are exacerbated by identity politics along
the lines of differences in culture, language and political
interests. Adaptation of businesses in various regions demands
theunderstandingoftheseinherentdivisionsamongststates.
Geopolitical Risks
InterstateConflicts
2016 saw extreme tensions between neighboring states with
political parties capitalizing on the discord. Land related
disputedhaveoccurredonafrequentbasisintheNorth-Eastern
States,especiallyacrosstheborderofAssamandNagaland.
The Cauvery River water dispute following the verdict of the
Supreme Court in August–September, 2016, triggered massive
disruptive demonstrations in Karnataka and resulted in large-
scale disruption to business and daily life. The protests in
Karnataka were so severely violent that curfew had to be
imposedinBengaluruthatcontinuedforanumberofdays.
Water again became the point of contention between
Chhattisgarh and Odisha. The alleged misdistribution of the
Mahanadi waters by Chhattisgarh, led to political unrest on
both the sides. BJD party workers staged “Save Mahanadi”
protests in western Odisha and disrupted rail traffic. Another
such conflict involving the states of Punjab, Rajasthan and
Haryana threatens to escalate to a flashpoint due to the water
sharing directives over Sutlej River and the stalled construction
of the Sutlej – Yamuna Link (SYL) canal. Punjab unilaterally
cancelled a decade-old water-sharing pact with Haryana and
Rajasthan, forcing the Supreme Court to impose a stay order.
MajorInter-StateRiverDisputes
Indus
Indus
Jhelum chenab
Ravi
Beas
Satluj
Luni
Saraswati Chambal
Yam
una
Ganga
Ghaghara
Kosi
Ganga
Brahmaputra
Narmada
Tapi
Godavari
Bhima
Krishna Krishna
KaveriPayaswani
Mahanadi
Ravi & Beas
State concerned
Punjab, Haryana,
Rajasthan
Narmada
State concerned
Mp, Gujarat,
Maharashtra, Rajasthan
Madel/Mandovi/
Mahadayi
State concerned
Goa, Karnataka,
Maharashtra
Krishna
State concerned
Maharashtra, Andhra
Pradesh (AP), Karnataka
Periyar
State concerned
TN, Kerala
Godavari
(BabhaliBarrage)
State concerned
Maharashtra, AP
Vamasadhara
State concerned
AP, Odisha
Godavari
State concerned
Maharashtra, AP,
Karnataka,
Odisha, Madhya
Pradesh (MP)

project in Andhra Pradesh and Mahanadi water dispute with
Chhattisgarh. In response, the Central Government has
downplayed these requests often siding with the Andhra
Pradesh and Chhattisgarh governments. Similar tensions are
brewing between the Telangana State Government and the
Centre regarding a decrease in power distribution between
TelanganaandAndhraPradesh.
Another important dispute between the central government
and state governments is the implementation of the GST Bill.
Already nine discussions have been carried out by the Finance
Ministry and the Sates. The States' primary demand is to seek
powers that control and administer levies. Another dispute is
the corpus to be created for compensating states for loss of
revenue from the GST rollout. This is an important issue as
severalnon-BJPstateshaveclaimedthattheNDAledcentrehas
nottreatedthisissuefairly.Severalprotestsledbystatessuchas
West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Kerela and Telangana have
occurredoverthelast6months.Protestsfromseveralofficersof
the Commercial Taxes department from all states was also
witnessed in Delhi. The ramifications of the GST dispute will
dependonthenegotiationbytheGSTcouncilandtheStates
Geopolitical Risks
Centre–StateRelations
The ongoing dispute between the Aam Admi Party (AAP) that
governsNationalCapitalRegion,Delhi,andtheCentrehasbeen
in the spotlight throughout 2016. The key concern revolves
around the appointment of 21 AAP MLA's to the post of
Parliamentary Secretaries. The Central government objects to
this, demanding disqualification of the posts on the ground of
'officeofprofit'.InJune2016,thePresidentwithheldascenttoa
Bill passed by the Delhi Government. The Bill proposed to
exemptthepostofParliamentarySecretaryfromthepurviewof
an'officeofprofit',withretrospectiveeffect.
The Demonetization Bill has further created discord between
the Centre and non-NDA/non-BJP state governments,
spearheaded by the West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata
Banerjee (Trinamool Congress), Delhi government (AAP) and
Uttar Pradesh Government (Samajwadi Party SP). Large-scale
protests have been conducted within these states, with
oppositionpartiesattemptingtomountpressureonthecentre.
TheCentralGovernmenthasbeenaccusedofneglectingcertain
infrastructure concerns of states, leading to a breakdown in
Centre-State relations. The Government of Odisha has
repeatedlyaskedtheCentretointerveneinthePolavaramdam

Geopolitical Risks
Indo–NepalRelations
The promulgation of the Constitution of Nepal in 2015, the
subsequent protests, and border blockade in 2015 have been a
majorsetbackinIndo-Nepalrelationship.
TheMadhesiandTharuminorityagitationinNepalhasbeenof
concern due to the close ties these communities share with
India. A key grievance is that the constitution restricts the
representationoftheMadhesiandTharupercentageelectedby
proportionalrepresentationto45percent.Thishasledtolarge-
scaleviolentprotestsbytheMadhesiandTharucommunities.A
change in leadership of the Nepal government in August 2016
brought the former Maoist rebel leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal
(also known as Prachanda) to the post of the Prime Minister.
This government forms a coalition government between the
Maoists and the Nepali Congress. Prachanda has taken steps to
ensure that the Constitutional Amendment includes the
redrawing of provinces taking into consideration the demands
fromtheMadhesis,TharusandJanajatis.
2017 will see five states going into assembly elections namely,
Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Goa, Uttarakhand and Manipur. The
recent political unrest, especially in Punjab and Uttar Pradesh,
has high potential for civil unrest and poll–related violence.
Insurgency in Manipur could also disrupt peaceful polls. The
United National Liberation Front of Western South East Asia
(UNLFW) can capitalize on these crucial days to hit strategic
securityposts,sincealargenumberofsecuritypersonnelwillbe
deployedatpollingstations.
The states of Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh will witness state
assembly elections during November and December of 2017.
Thereisprobabilityofelectoralviolenceduetoclashesbetween
rivalpoliticalparties,especiallyinGujarat.Thereisalsoariskof
isolated incidents of unrest, following the announcement of
electionresults.
ElectoralViolence

Geopolitical Risks
Indo–BangladeshRelations
India has lately shared close ties with Bangladesh and 2016 saw
cordial relations between the two nations. Talks have resulted
in India being allowed to use the seaports of Chittagong and
Mongla, which can greatly benefit Indian trade in the Far East.
Both the countries have recently signed MoU's in transport,
energy,trade,financeandsecurity.
Despite official support to Indian policies by the Bangladeshi
Government, there is an increasing and worrying trend of
radicalism in Bangladesh. Individuals belonging to religious
minorities, including Hindus and Christians, have been
persecutedinlargenumbers.Beginningwiththedestructionof
10 Hindu temples and several homes in the Brahmanbaria
district (October, 2016), the violence progressed to sustained
attacks on the indigenous Santals in Gaibandha district
(November,2016),subjectingminoritiestocommunalviolence.
A second wave of attacks in Brahmanbaria spawned sectarian
violence against Hindus in Sirajganj and Jhalakathi districts.
Moreover, the propagation of radical Islamic content on social
media instigating educated Bangladeshi youths in support of
terror outfits like Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen and the Islamic State,
isarisingsecurityconcernforIndia.
After Prachanda's visit to India in September 2016, ties have
significantly improved and both nations have signed bilateral
agreements on infrastructure in the Tarai region and post-
earthquake rehabilitation. The decisive factor in determining
India–Nepaltiesin2017willbePrachanda'sabilitytopacifythe
opposition parties as well as the Madhesi groups, in drafting a
suitableConstitutionalamendmentbill.
Another important aspect influencing India-Nepal relations is
the veering of Nepal towards China. In 2016, Nepal and China
has signed 10 MoUs, including Nepal's first ever transit and
transportation treaty. This treaty decreases Nepal's
dependency on Indian sea–port for third-country trade links.
Nepal and China have further signed agreements for
construction of a regional airport in Nepal and free trade
agreements to boost Nepal-China trade. Increase in Nepal's
bilateralrelationshipswithChinaposesasasecurityconcernfor
India.

Geopolitical Risks
India–Pakistan relations have been strained historically; 2016
saw a further breakdown in diplomatic relations due to the
Pakistan sponsored terror strikes at Uri, Pathankot and
Nagrota. Cross border firings have also seen a significant rise
since June, 2016, with over 300 ceasefire agreement violations
targeting Army and BSF posts at the International Border and
Line of Control. The most serious violation took place on the 1st
of November, when 8 civilians, including two children and four
women,werekilledand22otherswereinjuredinfivesectorsof
JammuandKashmir.
The September 18th Uri attacks led to a hostile build-up in
diplomaticties,startingwiththecancellationofthe19thSAARC
summit that was to be held in November at Islamabad.
Bangladesh, Afghanistan and Bhutan followed suit in support
of India's stand and its unwillingness to participate.
Furthermore,bothstateshavehalteddiplomaticrelationsafter
deporting of officials of High Commissions in Islamabad and
NewDelhi.
Indo–PakistanRelations
Much of the escalation in tensions can be attributed to the
Pakistani Army led by General Raheel Sharif. Thus the
appointmentofGeneralBajwabyPrimeMinisterNawazSharif
as the new Army Chief, could be a positive step in restoring ties.
It can create space for the political leadership to resume talks
withIndiaanddraftafreshceasefireagreement.
As far as Kashmir is concerned, there is not likely to be any
radicalchangeinthepolicyofthePakistaniArmyunderGeneral
Bajwa. Pakistan has pressed for a United Nations resolution
over the Kashmir issue and has openly stated that it would
continue to fuel the Kashmir agitation, unless the resolution is
passed. The terrorist attacks and cross border violations, which
have targeted several civilian areas have ensured that
diplomatic relations remain strained, and may deteriorate
furtherin2017.

Geopolitical Risks
India Conflict Map
Andhra
Pradesh
Arunachal
Pradesh
Assam
Bihar
Chhattisgarh
Gujarat
Haryana
Himachal
Pradesh
Jammu &
Kashmir
Jharkhand
Karnataka
Kerala
Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
Manipur
Meghalaya
Mizoram
Nagaland
Orissa
Punjab
Rajasthan
Sikkim
Tamil
Nadu
Tripura
Uttar Pradesh
Uttarakhand
West
Bengal
Delhi
Telangana
Jammu & Kashmir
LeT, JeM, HuM,
HM, UJC, JuM
Madhya Pradesh
CPI (Maoists)
Chhattisgarh
CPI (Maoists)
Maharashtra
CPI (Maoists)
Karnataka
CPI (Maoists)
Kerala
CPI (Maoists)
Tamil Nadu
CPI (Maoists)
Telangana
CPI (Maoists)
Andhra Pradesh
CPI (Maoists)
Odisha
CPI (Maoists)
West Bengal
CPI (Maoists) JMB
Jharkhand
CPI (Maoists), TPC,
PLFI, JMB
Tripura
ATTF, NLFT
Uttar Pradesh
CPI (Maoists)
Bihar
CPI (Maoists)
Meghalaya
ANLA, ASAK, ANLCA,
ATF, ANUF, HNLC,
LAEF, GNLA
Uttarakhand
CPI (Maoists)
Assam
ULFA(I), JMB, NDFB-(S),
CPI (Maoists), MULTA,
KPLT, PDCK
Arunachal Pradesh
NSCN(IM), NSCN(K),
NLCT, TLNLT
Nagaland
FGN-NA, FGN-A,
NSCN(K), NSCN(R),
NNC-NA,
NNC-Accordist
Manipur
CorCom, MNRF, NSCN-IM, NSCN-K, PULF,
ZUF, PLA, MNPF, KCP, KCP-PM, KCP-
MJC, KCP-Tamganbaon, KCP-MC, KCP-
Poirei Lup, KCP-Poirei Meitei, KCP-Mangal,
KCP-N, KCP-Nandu, PLA, PREPAK,
PREPAK-Pro, KYKL, UNLF
Mizoram
HPC(D)

Socio-Economic RisksIMPACT
LIKELIHOOD
1
2
3
4
5
2 4 6 8 10
Communal
Conflicts
Religious
Intolerance
Maoism
Crime
Caste
based violence
Political
Unrest
Women
Safety
Corruption
Social risks are ever-present, and have
become a prominent area of concern in
India. These risks also negatively impact
businesses, making them susceptible to
social and political challenges and
furthermore, unsustainable in the long
run. It is imperative for private sector
leaders and civil society organizations to
become key collaborators in bringing
about innovation for developing new
solutions.
- Oxfam
0 5 10 15 20 25
Maoism
Crime
Women Safety
Communal Conflicts
Religious Intolerance
Corruption
Caste based Violence
2017 2016

The Maoist movement, primarily spearheaded by the CPI
(Maoist), has managed to remain strong enough to challenge
thesecurityforces.Theyear2016witnessedadeclineinMaoist-
related violence as compared to the previous year. This decline
canbeattributedtoseveralreasonssuchasgreaterdeployment
of security personnel in the affected regions, loss of cadres and
leaders, desertions and surrender, and fatigue among the
Maoists. Maoists are currently believed to be operating in
around 118 districts in 17 States of India. Out of these states,
Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, and Orissa are the worst
affectedstates.
Demonetization has created a major setback in the activities of
Maoists, as it has affected their tactical capabilities to procure
firearms, ammunition, essential commodities and wages.
There was an increase in extortion activities, harassing of locals
andusingthemasproxiestoappropriatecash.
On December, 2016 Maoist torched 69 trucks and three JCBs at
Surjagad Lloyd Metal's iron mine in Maharashtra's Gadchiroli
district.ThisisthebiggestarsonattackinMaoistinsurgency-
Operations by security forces along the Odisha – Andhra
hit
areas.
PradeshborderinlateOctober,inwhich24Maoistswerekilled,
showed signs that the Maoists were looking to consolidate lost
groundintheseregions.
Sustained operations by the security forces, coupled with
government policies, has meant that states like West Bengal,
Maharashtra, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Bihar
have seen a significant reduction in the Maoists' activities.
However, the movement remains active in parts of Jharkhand
and Chhattisgarh, and post October 2016 there was an increase
inactivities.
Maoistshaveshowngrowingpresenceinthetri-junctionareaof
Kerala,KarnatakaandTamilNaduinSouthIndia;anareawhere
securityforceshave,inrecentyears,seenagrowingfootprintof
Maoists. It is likely that the Maoist threat will remain as one of
thebiggestinternalsecuritythreattothecountryinthecoming
year as well. As the security forces intensify operations in the
Maoist affected areas, it is unlikely that the insurgents will
enhance their operational capability outside their stronghold
areas.However,thereisalowbutcredibleprobabilityofone-off
attacksinsomesmallurbancentresoftheaffectedstates.
Maoism
Socio-Economic Risks

CrimeAgainstWomen
Overthepastfewyears,incidentsofcrimeagainstwomenhave
beenontheriseinIndia.CitiessuchasDelhi,Gurgaon,Mumbai,
Pune, Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Chennai and Pune have
witnessedanincreaseinthenumberofcasesofharassmentand
molestation. The year 2016 witnessed higher rate of crime
against women, but it could also be that more women are
2013 2014 2015 2016
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
159
111
151
421
128
87
99
314
93
55
101
257
120
66
244
430
Civilian Fatalities Security Forces Casualities
Maoist Casualties Total
FatalitiesduetoLeftWingViolence
Source: SATP
confident enough to report crimes against them. Exposure to
media over the last decade has also led to better reporting of
crimes.
However, conviction rates are poor because of the poor judicial
system, faulty methods of collecting forensic evidences, lack of
fast-track courts and speedy trials and limited use of modern
technology. This is due to the stigma attached to the victim
ratherthantheperpetratorofthecrime,whooftengetsaway.
Absence of fast-track courts and speedy trials are among the
major challenges in dealing with rape cases. The quality of
governanceinstatesiskeytounderstandingthehugevariation
inincidenceofseriouscrimesagainstwomen.
The government has issued a regulation requiring all mobile
phones sold in the country from 2017 to include a panic button
andGovernmentofIndiahasalsolaunchedmobileapplications
with”SOS”buttons.From2018,phonesaresettoincludein-built
GPS navigation systems. However, technology can at best be a
facilitator; and not a replacement for better social awareness,
androbustgovernmentmachinery.

Andhra
Pradesh
Arunachal
Pradesh
Assam
Bihar
Chhattisgarh
Goa
Gujarat
Haryana
Himachal
Pradesh
Jammu & Kashmir
Jharkhand
Karnataka
Kerala
Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
ManipurMeghalaya
Mizoram
Nagaland
Orissa
Punjab
Rajasthan
Sikkim
Tamil
Nadu
Tripura
Uttar Pradesh
Uttarakhand
West
Bengal
Delhi
Telangana
3363
1289
5291
9446
17104
35527
Chandigarh
5291
28165
7762
31126
365
365
9708
24135
1453
13891
6518
5720
15135
15931
17144
33218
53
23258
334
384
90
266
1581267
5847
Dadra &
Nagar Haveli
25
Daman & Diu
28
Given India's multi-ethnic composition where communities of
variousreligionsandcasteslivetogether,thecountry'shistoryis
no stranger to communal conflicts. Communal tension often
prevails between the Hindu and Muslim communities, and are
generally sparked-off due to some local issue which then takes
on a communal colour. Groups with political affiliations often
stoketensionsandinciterioters,tofurthertheirownagenda.
India's demographic diversity and tensions between various
communities are conducive to communal violence at short
notice. Such violence can take place around sensitive dates or
events, as well as in known conflict-prone areas. Several
incidents of communal violence have been reported in 2016.
Howevertherehasbeenadistincttrendintheseinstances.
Political and caste based instances of communal clashes have
been reported in West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Gujarat
and Madhya Pradesh at regular intervals. Rajasthan, Gujarat,
Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra have seen “agrarian riots” and the
National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) has projected an
increase in this categorization of communal tensions in 2017.
This encompasses communal tensions within the agrarian
CommunalConflictsCrime against women across India

section of Indian society and includes discontent over land
acquisition; caste based rioting as well as demands for
reservationanddiscontentamongeconomicpolicies.
Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka and Maharashtra reported the most
number of instances; but West Bengal and Assam also remain
communallysensitive.
InOctober2016,inWestBengal,severalareassuchasHazinagar
in North 24 Paraganas, Chanchal in Malda, Chandannagar in
Hooghly and Kharagpur city in Paschim Medinipur, reported
communal violence during the festival season of Durga Puja
and Muharram. In Punjab, various developments show
significant signs of growing communal tensions in the state.
Severalrallieswereorganisedtoprotestagainstthedesecration
of the holy book of Sikhs by miscreants across the state. The
latesttensionsintheNortheaststateofManipurandNagaland
is centred around the division of districts and land disputes
which has led to mass violence, protests and destruction of
government property. The current political environment will
continue to prevail in upcoming years and so there remains a
high risk of communal violence in future throughout the
country.
Andhra
Pradesh
Arunachal
Pradesh
Assam
Bihar
Chhattisgarh
Goa
Gujarat
Haryana
Himachal
Pradesh
Jammu & Kashmir
Jharkhand
Karnataka
Kerala
Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
Manipur
Meghalaya
Mizoram
Nagaland
Orissa
Punjab
Rajasthan
Sikkim
Tamil
Nadu
Tripura
Uttar Pradesh
Uttarakhand
West
Bengal
Delhi
Telangana
Incidents of communal conflicts 2016

2016 saw an unprecedented rise in caste politics and identity
politics, across the country. Upset by the high level of
reservations (in the form of affirmative action) in government
jobs for various disadvantaged groups, the 'higher' castes of
Kapu, Jats and Marathas undertook agitations over
reservations. The year started with violent protests by the Kapu
communityofAndhraPradeshinEast Godavaridistrict.
ThiswasfollowedbytheJatcommunityinHaryanainFebruary,
whichnearlyshutdownthestateforseveraldays,andledtothe
deathofaround30peopleandinjuriestohundreds.Duringthe
violentprotests,mobssetfiretovehicles,busesandcommercial
centres, and blocked the railway tracks near Rohtak, Haryana.
The likelihood of further protests and action has increased
markedly following the success of the Jats as this can now be
seenasaviablewayofattainingreservationstatus.
Another notable incident of reservation-based agitations
occurred last year in Gujarat, where the Patidar community
organised various demonstrations in order to gain reservation
statusintheOBCcategory.ThePatidaragitationwasinspiredby
the Jat agitation in Haryana; if successful it will inspire similar
Caste-basedViolence
agitations in future. The continued lack of inclusion in the
reservationsystemmaypromptrenewedprotestsin2017.
Later in the year, the state of Maharashtra, saw unprecedented
(but non-violent) protests by the state's dominant community,
Marathas, who comprise about 32% of the state's population.
The Maratha agitation gave rise to similar agitations by the
Dalit, OBC and Muslim communities in the state. All these
communities held protests across the state, highlighting the
deep caste divides that exist in one the largest states in the
country.
Maharashtra's other backward classes (OBC) and Dalits are
rallying behind the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led
administrations-both in the state and the centre, hoping that
theywillturndowntwooftheMarathademands:amendments
to the SC/ST Prevention of Atrocities Act and reservation for
Marathas. OBC organizations have started organizing silent
marches. In November, 2016 members belonging to Dalit,
Adivasi and other communities held a Mahasangram Rally at
Ramlila Maidan in New Delhi, to demand self-equality and
rights in accordance with the constitution. Haryana holds the

dubious reputation of being the state with the highest number
ofDalitkillingsoverthepastdecade.Inmostofthecases,groups
with political affiliations have previously stoked tensions and
incited rioters to further their own agenda. Such mass
movementsalsoindicatethedisillusionmentamongdominant
farmingcommunitiesinsomeofIndia'sricheststates.
Gau Rakshak related incidents 2015Gau Rakshak Related Incidents 2016
Delhi
00 22 1111 11
Haryana
11 00
Rajasthan
22 00
Gujarat
11 22
Uttar
Pradesh
55 00
Madhya
Pradesh
11 11
Karnataka
00 11
Himachal
Pradesh
00 11
Jammu
and Kashmir
11 00
Jharkhand
Incidentsofreligiousintolerance-2016
IncidentsofcrimeinIndiashowageneraluptrend,withtherate
of crime per unit population also showing a rising trend.
However, this is more likely an indication of better reportage
thananactualincreaseinthenumberofcrimes.Mediaactivism
andsocialmediaarealsocontributorstopublicawarenessanda
higher propensity to report crime.Uttar Pradesh, Haryana,
Bihar and Maharashtra reported high incidences of violent
crimes,althoughwhenconsideringtherateofviolentcrimeper
unit population, Delhi, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim,
HaryanaandBiharshowthehighestnumber.
Incidents of petty crime in public places (like picking of pockets
andtheftofvaluables)havedecreased.Ontheotherhand,ATM
robberies and cash-van attacks have been more frequent.
However, due to better CCTV's and crowd-sourced
investigations,recoverieshavealsobeenhigher.
To overcome enhanced security measures, more and more
criminals are resorting to collusion with insiders. Criminals are
morelikelytousetechnologyintensivetoolsratherthanoldand
rudimentary means, in order to escape strict policing and CCTV
surveillanceinpublicplaces.
Crime

Technology Risks
1
2
3
4
5
1 2 3 4 5
Cyber Attacks
Internet of
Things
Mega Data
Breaches
Cyber Terrorism
DDOS Attacks
Ransomware
IMPACT
LIKELIHOOD
The potential of emerging technologies
to disrupt the standard business models
in India is huge. While many of these
disruptions will benefit governance,
business and improve the quality of life
for the common man; on the other hand
they may adversely affect financial and
knowledge-based industry, when in the
wrong hands.
- Dr Prem Chand
Ex-CIO, Tech Mahindra
Business Process
CompromiseAugmented
Reality
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Cyber crime/attacks
Cyber terrorism
Mega Data Breaches
Ransomware
Business Process Compromise
DDOS attacks
IoT
2017 2016
Augmented Reality

Technology Risks
CyberCrime/Attacks
An increasing amount of business value and personal
information worldwide are rapidly migrating into digital form,
on open and globally interconnected technology platforms. As
that happens, the risks from cyberattacks become increasingly
daunting. It is now 20 times more likely to have money stolen
online by a criminal overseas than by a pickpocket or mugger in
the street. With increasing internet penetration, cybercrimes
havealsoincreasedinthelastfewyears.
Between2011and2015,thenumberofcybercrimesregisteredin
thecountryhasincreased5times.Maharashtra&UttarPradesh
aloneaccountedforathirdofthesecrimes.
Statistics indicate that 60% of small enterprises go out of
businesswithin6monthsofacyber-attack.Asperthereportby
Symantec and the National Cyber Security Alliance, most SMEs
havenosecuritypolicy,only50%havebasiccyber-security,40%
don'tbackupoffsite,andonly25%getathirdpartytotestthem.
Most business owners have simply ignored the challenge of
cyber-security thinking, somehow it was simply going to go
away. Because of this, these businesses have constantly been
targeted.
Cybercrime is big business. Over the last few years, cyber
criminals have been re-investing much of the ill-gotten gains
into developing more sophisticated capabilities, using more
advancedtechnologies.
Despiteongoinginnovationinthecybersecurityindustry,much
of the effort remains reactive. Cyber security needs to become
moreproactive,ratherthanreactive.
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Cases Registered Persons Arrested
Source: NCRB
CybercrimeinIndia

Technology Risks
AugmentedReality
Pokémon Go turned into a worldwide phenomenon and
brought to light the new threats of Augmented Reality (AR)
games. The physical issues included cases of people who were
hurt,muggedorevenkilledthemselves,justbecausetheywere
too caught up in the augmented reality and weren't paying
attention to the real world. There were the cyber security and
privacy issues born from the melding with the real world: the
images and audio registered by our smartphone, location
tracking, and all the rest of the information that we willingly
giveawayaboutourselves.
CybersecuritycompanyRiskIQdiscovered 215rogueversionsof
Pokémon Go that downloaded malware and ransomware on
theGooglePlayappstore.
However, experts have opposing notions of what AR is going to
be. With the advent of Google Glass, Microsoft HoloLens and
the world's favorite Snapchat, AR is here to stay since simplicity
ratherthanambition,iswhereithasproveditself.
CyberTerrorism
“Cyber terrorism” is a contested term that can erroneously
include acts of “hacktivism” and internet vandalism which do
not directly threaten the lives and livelihoods of their victims.
Cyber terrorism threatens us the most at the vulnerable points
where our physical and virtual worlds converge. In Iran, the
Stuxnet virus proved to the world that malware infections can
disrupt the operations at their nuclear facilities. In Ukraine,
cyber-attacks on their energy provider resulted in deliberate
blackouts. In the United States, Cesar Cerrudo, a security
researcher, was able to take control and manipulate traffic
systems by exploiting vulnerabilities in the traffic control
devices.
India lacks the required techno-legal framework, which can
helpinfightingagainstcybercrimesandsophisticatednational
and international cyber-attacks. During the India – UK Tech
Summit,BritishPrimeMinisterTheresaMayandPrimeMinister
NarendraModidecidedtostrengthentherelationshipbetween
the two countries by negotiating a cyber framework to counter
cyber terrorism. An MoU was also signed between India and
United Arab Emirates (UAE) on Technical Cooperation in Cyber
SpaceandCombatingCyber-Crime.

80
Anthem
25
Office of
Personnel
Management (US)
500
Yahoo
Bangladesh
Bank
81
#
No. of Million
Records Stolen
Ashley
Madison
37
Panama
Papers
15
Experian Plc
Technology Risks
Hackers used malware that they injected into Hitachi Payment
Services'systemstosteal3.2milliondebitcards'detailsinIndia.
The Yahoo! breach of 2016, exposed 500 million Yahoo!
accounts. The data breaches during the US Presidential
electionshighlightedthepossibilitiesofstate-sponsoredcyber-
attacks.
ThelatestVerizonDataBreachIndustryReportstatedthat:93%
of the attacks cyber criminals take minutes or even less to
compromise systems; 4 out of 5 victims don't realize they were
attacked for weeks or longer; 7% of the cases, the breach goes
undetectedformorethanayear;63%ofthedatabreacheswere
causedbyaweak,defaultorstolenpassword.
The top data breach trends anticipated in 2017 by Experian, a
GlobalInformationServicescompanyare:
Aftershocksofcyber-breaches
Nation–Statecyber-attacks
Healthcaresectorsasthenewtargets
Paymentbasedattacks
Internationaldatabreaches
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MegaDataBreaches
Ransomware
In2017,ransomwarewillbecomeanincreasinglycommonplace
componentofdatabreaches.Cybercriminalsstartwithstealing
confidential data to sell in underground markets, further
installingransomwaretoholddataservershostage,anddouble
their profit. Mobile ransomware will likely follow the same
trajectory as desktop ransomware given how the mobile user
Majorglobalsecuritybreaches

Technology Risks
AccordingtoBusinessInsider,therewillbemorethan24billion
IoTdevicesonEarthby2020.That'sapproximatelyfourdevices
foreverypersonontheplanet.Andasweapproachthatpoint,$6
billion will flow into IoT solutions, including application
development, device hardware, system integration, data
storage, security, and connectivity. But that will be money well
spent, as those investments will generate $13 trillion by 2025.
BusinesseswillbethetopadopterofIoTsolutionsbecausethey
willuseIoTto:
Loweroperatingcosts
Increaseproductivity
Expandtonewmarketsordevelopnewproductofferings.
Governments will be the second-largest adopters, while
consumers will be the group least transformed by the IoT. The
DepartmentofElectronicsandInformationTechnology(DeitY)
hasdraftedIndia'sfirst''InternetofThingsPolicy.Thispolicyhas
beendevelopedwithanaimtomaketheIoTindustryinIndiato
reach the mark of USD 15 billion by 2020 by increasing the
number of connected devices in India from the current 200
million to 2.7 billion by 2020. Two major efforts taken by the
Government of India which will lead to a rapid growth of IoT
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InternetofThings
baseisnowaviable,untappedtarget.Non-desktopcomputing
terminals like point-of-sale (PoS) systems or ATMs may also
suffer extortion-type attacks. It is now clear to enterprises that
sufferingaransomwareattackhasbecomearealisticpossibility
and an expensive business disruption. While there is no silver
bullet that can protect potential targets from ransomware
attacks 100% of the time, it is best to block the threat at its
source,viaWeboremailgatewaysolutions.
Infected web
page
Malware
Ransomware
Malware that encrypts
data on the PC, blocks
user out and asks for a
ransom to provide the
decryption key
Infected link
recieved in email
OUTDATEDOUTDATED
*
Internet Explore
Firefox
Chrome
Flash
Adobe Reader
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>
>
>>Ransomware

Technology Risks
industryareSmartCitiesprojectandDigitalIndiaProgram.
With IoT penetrating various sectors, there are several
emergingtrendsthatareslatedtobeonarise:
Beitcloud–analyticsapplications,supplychain,smartenergy
& water management implementation, connected vehicle,
beacon based application, emerging low power wireless
technologiesandmanufacturing&logistics,thefutureofIoTis
inordinate.
AsIoTintroducesefficienciesintoindustrialenvironmentslike
manufacturing and energy generation, threat actors will build
ontheeffectivenessoftheBlackEnergyattackstofurthertheir
ownends.
Together with the significant increase in the number of
supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) system
vulnerabilities, the migration to IIoT will introduce
unprecedented dangers and risks to organizations and
affectedconsumersin2017.
These dangers can be proactively addressed by vendors who
sell smart devices and equipment by implementing security-
focuseddevelopmentcycles.
Barring that, IoT and IIoT users must simulate these attack
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scenariostodetermineandprotectpointsoffailure.
An industrial plant's network defense technology must, for
instance, detect and drop malicious network packets via
networkintrusionpreventionsystems(IPSs).
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Remote
Internet Network
Analytics
Data Storage
IoT Devices
Gateways
Analysis
Command/RFI
Analysis
Data
Data
TheInternetofThingsecosystem

Technology Risks
DDOSattacks
In 2017, we can expect to see DDoS attacks grow, fueling the
needforsolutionstailoredtoprotectagainstandmitigatethese
attacks.
Threatpredictionsfor2017include:
Terabit-scaleattackstobecomethenewnorm,impactingISPs
andtheInternetbackboneitself
Novel zero-day reflection and amplification attacks will
appearwithmorefrequency,enablingmoresophisticatedand
targetedattacks
DDoS attacks will become a top security priority, with
increased disruption to businesses and government due to
risingthreatlevels
WhilemuchofthefocusinthewakeofrecentIoT-relatedDDoS
attackswasputonencouragingmanufacturerstoinstallproper
security controls on Internet-connected devices before they are
issued, ISPs also have an important role to play in reducing the
numberoffutureDDoSattacks.
Further, best practices exist and can be leveraged to utilize
ingressfilteringtoremovetheproblemofspoofedIPaddresses
thatarewidelyusedinreflectionDDoSattacks.
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TheBangladeshBankheistcausedlossesofuptoUS$81million.
Unlike Business Email Compromise, which relies on erroneous
human behavior, the heist stemmed from a much deeper
understanding of how major institutions processed financial
transactions. BPC will go beyond the finance department,
althoughfundtransferswillremainitsmosttypicalendgame.
Possiblescenariosincludehackingintoapurchaseordersystem
so cybercriminals can receive payment intended for actual
vendors. Hacking into a payment delivery system can likewise
lead to unauthorized fund transfers. Cybercriminals can hack
into a delivery center and reroute valuable goods to a different
address.
Cybercriminals staging BPC attacks will still solely go after
money instead of political motives or intelligence gathering,
but the methods and strategies used in these and targeted
attacks will be similar. Security technologies like application
controlcanlockdownaccesstomission-criticalterminalswhile
endpoint protection must be able to detect malicious lateral
movement. Strong policies and practices regarding social
engineeringmustbepartofanorganization'scultureaswell.
BusinessProcessCompromise(BPC)

Economic RisksIMPACT
LIKELIHOOD
Downside risks to the Indian economy in
2017 include slower than expected
normalization from the demonetization
process in Q1 2017, as well as potential
delays to the GST implementation
process. Another risk is that of rising
inflation due to higher raw materials
prices, particularly for oil and gas, which
could force the RBI to start tightening
monetary policy and dampening the
pace of economic growth.
- Rajiv Biswas
Asia-Pacific Chief Economist, IHS Markit
1
2
3
4
5
1 2 3 4 5
Fiscal
Deficit
Oil Price
Volatility
Complex
Taxation
Energy Security
Currency Fluctuation
Bank
Frauds
Workforce IssuesDemonitization
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
Demonetization
Complex Taxation
Currency fluctuation
Fiscal Deficit
Energy Security
Oil Price volatility
Bank Frauds
Work force Issues
2017 2016

Economic Risks
Demonetisation
On 8th November 2016, India witnessed demonetization of
high-value Indian currency notes. Seen as a shock-therapy
move, the primary aim is to tackle black money, counterfeit
currency and the shadow economy. The demonetization move
neatlytiesupalltheinitiativesoftheModigovernment;starting
with the launch of Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana, Aadhar
and RuPay Cards, followed by Insurance and Pension schemes
linked to accounts to bring financial inclusion. Economists are
dividedovertheusefulnessoftheexerciseandtheimpactitwill
haveontheeconomy,whereascriticshavearguedthatitcarries
littleeconomicvalidationandispoliticallymotivated.
Demonetization is the process of devaluing currency. In a
surprise move by the government, the old 500 and 1000 rupee
notes ceased to be legal tender. The denominations comprised
of 86% of the currency in circulation.Indian economy is
currently the 7th largest global market and heavily reliant on
cash based transactions, 95% of the transactions by volume are
in cash. The base of the economy, formed by the unbanked and
informalsector,ismostseverelyimpacted.Thecashcrunchhas
resultedinlossofincomeandwelfarefordailywageearnersand
smallbusinessesintheinformalsector.
India'sGDPwillbeimpactedin2017,asthemovehastriggereda
short-term slowdown in consumption. RBI estimated growth
for the current fiscal is 7.1%, while IMF predicts 6.6%. However,
even then the country is expected to outpace most other major
globaleconomies.Only6%oftheblackmoney,heldincash,can
be targeted through demonetization. The immediate impact
has been and will remain for the larger part of 2017, cash
liquidityandhasslesfortax-payingindividuals.
The move can be a leap towards inhibiting future financial
wrongdoings, if the tax returns of those who make large
deposits compared to their declared income is checked out
meticulously.
TheunitedOppositionismountingpressureonthegovernment
via rallies and protests, opposing demonetization by calling it
an anti-people drive. It has had a negative impact on certain
sectors–smallandmediumenterprises,retail,automobile,real
estate, transport and logistics, agriculture, and hospitality;
facing a short-term slowdown as most demand is serviced
throughcash.

Demonetization has provided momentum to the Jan-Dhan
bank accounts, with approximately $3 billion increase in
deposits, boosting financial inclusion. The digitization of
economy,whichcouldhavepreviouslytakenaround8-10years,
maynowbeachievedataquickerrateduetodemonetization.E-
Commerce and the IT sector are set to experience an overall
boost with an attempt to digitize services. Construction
activitieshavedecreasedmainlyduetocashshortagetosupport
daily wage earners. Impact is also felt in the cement and steel
industry.Withnearlyfivestatesplannedtoholdassemblypolls
in2017,thedemonetizationdrivehasforcedthepoliticalparties
tore-strategizetheirpoliticalcampaigns.
Withthismove,thegovernmenthasdemonstrateditsintention
to execute bold decisions, as well as pave way for a shift from
pre-modern to modern economy. It may lead to an increase in
tax collection and the lowering of fiscal deficit in medium to
longterm,whilethecurrentdownturnineconomicactivitydue
toreducedcashlevelsarelikelytobelimitedforthefirstfourto
eight months of the year. The policy aims for long¬–term
changes; however the impact due to mismanaged
implementationisbeingfeltintheshortterm.
Economic Risks
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Q1 (2016) Q2 (2016) Q3 (2016) Q4 (2016) Q1 (2017) Q2 (2017)
Actual Forecast
IndiaGDPannualgrowhrateandforecast
Source: MOSPI
Investment Demand
Private Consumption
Services
Industry
Agriculture
GVA at basic price
-2 0 2 4 6 8 10
GDPestimates
2016-2017 2015-2016 Source: CSO

Transparency International ranks India 76 out of 168 countries,
with a score of 38, on the latest Corruption Perception Index.
WhileIndiasawanimprovementinitsrankfrompreviousyears,
its overall score remains unchanged as bribery and corruption
continue to pose serious risk. Companies in India are likely to
face red tape, petty corruption and bribery when dealing with
public services. The World Bank Ease of Doing Business Report
put 29 days as the number of days it takes to start a business,
however, pointing out that India fares poorly when it comes to
enforcingcontractsandpassingregulations.Someofthemajor
sectors which are affected by corruption include: infrastructure
andrealestate;metalandmining;powerandutilitiessectorand
defence.
The Right to Information Act, 2005, aims to make the
government working transparent. E-auctions of spectrum
bands and coalmines have decreased scams in the mining and
telecommunications sector. The Enforcement Directorate has
launched an 'enquiry of records' operation at over 50 bank
branches in major cities across the country to detect money
laundering and hawala dealing instances through these
channels.
Corruption
Economic Risks
New age crime dominates economic crime in the near future,
particularly cybercrime. National Crime Records Bureau
reporteda19timesincreaseincybercrimesinIndiaoverthelast
10 years. With India moving towards a cashless economy, the
threat of cyber crimes and fraud is increasing. Regulatory
changes with the introduction of Black Money (Undisclosed
ForeignIncomeandAssets)ImpositionofTaxAct,2015,Benami
Transaction (Prohibition) Amendment Bill, 2015, and
Companies (Amendment) Act, 2015, measures are in place for
thepenalisationofprohibitedandunethicalbusinessactivities.
Withaspikeincybercrime,cyberreadinessisemergingasakey
concernforbusinesses.AccordingtoPriceWaterhouseCoopers
report,56%ofIndianrespondentshaveperceivedanincreasein
cybercrime and only 45% of organizations have trained
manpowertohandlecybercrime.
Concerned over the rise in complaints about unauthorized
electronic transactions, the Reserve Bank of India has
introducedapolicyof'zeroliability'forcustomersinthird-party
fraudsiftheyarereportedwithinthreedays. S t e p p i n g u p
action to check financial crimes post demonetisation, the
Enforcement Directorate (ED) launched an 'enquiry of records'
FinancialCrimes

operation with over 50 bank branches under the scanner to
money laundering and hawala dealings. Post demonetization,
bankrobberieshaveincreasedinKashmirandtroubledstatesof
India. Espionage, procurement fraud, accounting fraud, and
asset misappropriations are in-organization crimes that have
increasedfinancialdamagefororganizations.
Top reasons contributing to fraud include diminishing ethical
values, lack of control systems, bribery and corruption,
technological advancements and limited employee education
of fraud, amongst others. Loss recovery in cases of fraud is poor
as laws governing fraud are not effective. Government efforts
towards stronger enforcement and corporate role towards
incorporatingethicalstandardsiskeytodecreasethelikelihood
offraud.
Economic Risks
In2017,oilpriceswillcontinuetoremainuncertainandvolatile.
World oil demand is projected to grow by 1.5 million barrel per
day and hence prices are likely to stay above $50. India depends
on imports to meet 80% of its oil needs, and an increase in oil
prices is highly likely to effect inflation and current account
deficit.
Anincreaseincrudeoilpriceswillresultinincreaseinpetroland
diesel prices in India, directly impacting businesses and
individuals.India'soildemandisprojectedtoincreasefrom4.33
million barrel per day in 2016 to 4.49 million barrel per day,
strainingthegovernment'scoffers.OPECcountriesandRussia's
plan to cut down supply in the first half of 2017 can put
inflationary pressure on oil prices. Policy interventions by the
Governmentseektoboostdomesticoilandgasproduction.
The Hydrocarbon Exploration and Licensing Policy, 2016, offers
advantages ranging from single license for exploration and
production to revenue sharing model. The government is
offering 46 contract areas under the Discovered Small Field
Policy. New initiatives aim to deliver results in 2017, and
decreasethepressureofincreasingglobaloilprices.
OilPriceVolatility

FiscalDeficit
TheFiscalDeficit,thegapbetweentheexpenditureandrevenue
fortheentirefiscalyear,ispeggedat3.5%(Rs.5.33lakhcrore)of
the GDP for 2016-17. Fiscal deficit is projected to come down for
2017 with an increase in taxation after demonetization,
however a decrease in growth rate can negate any positives. As
per data released by the Controller General of Accounts, tax
revenue came in at Rs.6.21 lakh crore, accounting to 59% of the
budget estimate. Revenue deficit, till November 2016 stood at
98.4% of the budget estimate referring to the shortfall in total
government revenue realisation from the targeted figure. The
surge of liquidity in banks, increased liquidity in government's
treasury and raids at black money hoarders is expected to
increase revenue for the government, hinting at a possible
decline in the deficit. The dip in economic activity due to the
demonetization will affect the GDP and the overall earnings in
theeconomy.
Economic Risks
ComplexTaxation
India's current tax system is complex and multi-layered. Cross-
border compliance, compounding of taxes on domestically
produced goods and services, in addition to several central and
statetaxes,exacerbatethecomplexityofthesystem.
IndirecttaxesinIndiahavedrivenbusinessestorestructureand
model their supply chains and systems owing to multiplicity of
taxesandcostsinvolved.
India is planning to implement a dual Goods and Services Tax
(GST) system. India stands to gain $15 billion a year by
implementingGSTasitwouldboostexports,raiseemployment
andpromoteoveralleconomicgrowthbywideningthetaxbase.
While the overall tax rate is expected to fall, the broadening of
thetaxbaseandgreatercompliancecouldboosttaxcollections.
GST will be supply-chain neutral and will obviate the need for
bundling or unbundling of goods and services for taxation
purposes.
Small businesses and start-ups are likely to benefit from an
eased tax structure. GST will protect businesses from the
cascading effect of the country's complex regulatory structure
and multiple local taxes. Overhauling the existing tax structure
of a country is a challenging task and needs continuous
monitoring at every step. Moreover, to roll out GST effectively,
India will need to build a robust nationwide IT network and
infrastructure.

Economic Risks
CurrencyFluctuation
Currency fluctuation now appears to be the new normal
globally. Indian foreign exchange reserves hit a historic high in
September2016butdroppedsoonafter,duetoforeigncurrency
non-resident deposit redemption, flight of capital due to US
Federal Reserve hiking interest rates, and demonetisation. The
rate of fluctuation in the Indian currency has been far lower
compared to other currencies, and the rupee ended in 2016 at
67.93againsttheUSdollar.
The biggest influencer on the INR exchange rate recently has
been crude oil costs, which have risen lately after OPEC
membersagreedoncuttingoilproductiontoboosttheprice.At
the moment, the government is not considering any
interventiontostabilisetherupee.Givenglobaluncertainties,it
istoughtopredictwhereitwillheadincomingmonths.
The Rupee is still projected as a resilient currency, given
improved policy and macro economic fundamentals;
nonetheless sluggish industrial production and the central
bank's decision in respect to lending rates may have an
unfavourableeffect.
In 2016, strikes, closures and unrest were ranked as one of the
major risk affecting the Indian economy. There is a giant
underbelly of disparity and discontent that exists, and its
sudden eruption can affect India's attempts at gaining investor
confidence and ease of doing business. The unpredictability of
unrestsinthisdayandageposeagreaterrisk.
The outburst in Bangalore by garment factory workers in
response to Provident Fund reforms, left labour union leaders,
police and employers flabbergasted. Riding on rumours and
misleading press coverage, the protest started at one garment
factory and spread to major industrial clusters in the city in a
matter of hours. There was no leader or negotiator. Protests by
union-less labour cannot be correctly predicted, and can
becomeaseriousconcernforCorporateIndia.
In addition to the heightened social unrest in 2016, labour
unrest, strikes and demonstrations protesting reforms; land
acquisition and industrial projects continue to shape business
perception. On September 2, 2016, ten central trade unions
called for a nationwide strike against anti-labour policies
affecting bank operations, public transport and telecom
WorkforceUnrest

services, public sector undertakings and businesses. Andhra
Pradesh-basedinternationalpapermaker,AAPM,wasforcedto
shutdownitsoperationsafterastrikecalledbystaffunionstook
an ugly turn at its plant in Rajahmundry. The cotton textile and
yarn maker GTN Textiles in May 2016, declared a lock out at its
Kerala plants due to labour strike. Attempts made to negotiate
with the unions, with intervention from officials of the Labour
Department,didnotmakeanyprogress.
InadequateInfrastructure
India's 2016-17 Union Budget provided for significant outlay for
infrastructure expenditure. Infrastructure is a key driver for the
Indian economy and expenditure in this sector has a multiplier
effect.
Theinfrastructuredeficitiscostingupto5percentoftheGDP.
The value of roads and bridges infrastructure in India is
projected to grow at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)
Economic Risks
of17.4percentoverFY12–17. Transparencyandcorruptionneed
to be positively addressed to help facilitate the development of
betterinfrastructureinIndia.
Infrastructure sector could benefit from a stable regulatory
environment with an independent regulator, appropriate
dispute- resolution mechanisms and supportive, and
comprehensive policies. In case of the power sector, better
regulation has helped in a turnaround and the country is
expectedtohaveapowersurplusin2016-17. TheIMFpointsout
a need to increase electricity generation and increased
infrastructureinvestmenttoretainasteadygrowthrate.Indiais
developing power grids and transmission lines with
neighbouringcountrieslikeNepalandBangladesh.
One of the key reasons why infrastructure development in the
country has failed to take off in a big way is due to the dismal
performance of the Public Private Partnerships; which at one
point of time were considered to be a panacea for all
infrastructurechallengesfacingthecountry.

Economic Risks
Goverment's8-pointstrategytomoveupinWorldBankDoing
BusinessIndexranking
TheeBizportalwillbemandatedforstartingabusiness.
The number of procedures for starting a business and the
numberofdaystostartabusinesswillbothbecuttofour.
The Shram Suvidha Portal will be the only portal for filing tax
returns, challan and making online payments for EPFO and
ESIC.
The department of revenue and the ministry of shipping will
work towards increasing the number of direct-delivery
consignmentsto40%.
Provisions under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code will be
implementedthroughtheNationalCompanyLawTribunal.
The Central Registry of Securitisation Asset Reconstruction
and Security Interest (CERSAI) database will be integrated
with the Registrar of Companies to create a single registry of
assets.
E-courts will be expedited for the electronic filing of
complaints,summonsandpayments.
Onthe'constructionpermit'indicator,thenumberofpermits
requiredwillbebroughtdowntoeight.
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§ Innovation
Institutions
Infrastructure
Macroeconomic
Environment
Health and Primary
Education
Higher Education
and Training
Goods Market
Efficiency
Labour Market
Efficiency
Financial Market
Development
Technological
Readiness
Market Size
Business
Sophistication
India Emerging and Developing Asia Developed Asia
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
3.7
3.3
5
4
3.9
5.2
3.9
3.7
6.2
4.5
4.9
4.8
5.5
5.6
6.6
4
4
5.8
4.2
4.3
5.5
3.9
4.3
5
4.2
3.9
4.9
2.8
3.4
5.9
6.5
4.5
5.4
4.2
3.9
5.2
India’sperformanceonthe12factorsofcompetitiveness
Source: World Economic Forum

Safety RisksIMPACT
LIKELIHOOD
Mainstream industrial India needs to
improve its safety awareness and
conduct, to actually reduce occupational
Safety and Health Risks to As Low as
Reasonably Practicable. Commitment of
managements, use of proper equipment
and a proactive mindset is necessary if
India is to mature as a country with a
strong industrial Workplace, Safety and
Health culture.
- Capt Ashwin Khandke
Executive Director,
NUSTAR QHSE CONSULTING PTE. LTD
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4
5
1 2 3 4 5
Structural
Safety
Fire &
Industrial
Safety
Rail Safety
Road Safety
Pandemics &
Diseases
Food & Water
Safety
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Road Safety
Rail Safety
Fire & Industrial Safety
Structural Safety
Food & water safety
2017 2016

Indian Railways, one of the largest rail networks in the world,
operates more than two thousand trains daily. The year 2016
witnessed several train accidents, the Patna-Indore Express
derailment that happened on 20th November was the most
catastrophic. Derailments are major causes of rail accidents.50
percentoftrainaccidentsinthelastthreeyearshavebeendueto
derailments,ofwhich29percentwerecausedbytrackdefects.
Accidents due to derailment have been up by 67 percent this
fiscal year. Of late, the Indian Railways have incorporated the
Track Monitoring System, software meant to store information
regarding temperature and track-maintenance activity across
therailways.
If India aims to maintain the pace of economic development, it
hastobebackedbyarobustrailnetworkofpassengeraswellas
freight. The biggest risk facing railways is mitigating accident
risks, ensuring safety of female passengers, and functioning on
atightbudget.
RailSafety
Safety Risks
0
50
100
150
200
250
Total Accidents Derailments Mishaps at LCs Other Causes
2006-07 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
LC: Level Crossing; Other causes include collision, fire etc
RoadSafety
World Health Organisation (WHO) statistics indicate that one
road-related accident death takes place every four minutes in
India. Thirteen states, including Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra,
Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, and Uttar Pradesh,
account for more than 80% of all road accidents and fatalities.
Most of the road accidents can be attributed to lack of driving
knowledge, non-adherence to traffic rules, drunken driving,
inadequate road infrastructure, and unsatisfactory weather
conditions.
RailaccidentsinIndia
Source: Indian Railways

In an effort to bring down the incidences of drink driving on
Highways, the Supreme Court in December 2016 directed a ban
on the sale of liquor on all State Highways, adding that all
licenses of liquor shops in the vicinity of the National Highways
wouldbeclosed.Onabroaderperspective,boththecentraland
state governments have to set adequate road safety targets as
wellasformulatenationalroadsafetyplans.
Safety Risks
590
450
270
240
380
Nh45
Chennai-Theni
Nh4
Thane-Chennai
Nh2
Delhi-Kolkata
Nh8
Delhi-Mumbai
Nh44
Nongstoin-Sabroom
Highwayshavingthehighestnumberofaccidents-2016
Despiteaplethoraofregulationsandlawsforfireandindustrial
safety; the implementation of the basic and necessary rules
remains a grey area. In January 2016, a firecracker-
manufacturing unit in Maradu in Kochi caught fire. In February
2016, during the 'Make in India' cultural extravaganza in
Mumbai, huge flames erupted from under the stage, setting it
on fire. The fire was attributed to storage of inflammable
materialbelowthestageindirectcontraventiontoregulations.
InApril,PuttingaltempleatParavurinKollamdistrictofKerala,
witnessed one of the worst fire tragedies of India, where more
than100peoplediedduetoafireworks-relatedincident.
Inthesamemonth,Delhi'sNationalMuseumofNaturalHistory
was destroyed in another massive fire. With increasing
migration and burdened metropolises, the need for structural
guidelinesincaseoffatalitiesishigher.
The pace of construction of high-rises in urban areas is fast,
there is a need to ensure that these new buildings comply with
safetynorms.
Fire&IndustrialSafety

Safety Risks
In 2016, several building accidents took place, some caused by
natural disasters while others were the result of poor
construction. When Cyclone Vardah struck in Chennai,
December 2016, its impact on buildings and other structures
was massive, resulting in severe damage. Earlier in the year, in
January, when an earthquake measuring 6.7 magnitudes hit
Manipur&neighboringstatesofMyanmar,Bangladeshseveral
buildings collapsed and many others suffered structural
damage. In Kolkata, an under-construction flyover collapsed
due to fault construction design and poor quality of material;
morethan20peoplediedintheincident.
ThereareseveralbuildingsinIndia,whicharebeyondtheirshelf
life and are still inhabited. There is an urgent need to retrofit
these buildings. Building construction works carried out by the
Public Works Departments, other government construction
departments, local bodies or private construction agencies
needs to adhere to National Building Code of India (NBC). The
NBC mainly contains administrative regulations, general
building requirements; fire safety requirements; stipulations
regarding materials, structural design, and construction and
plumbingservices.
BuildingStructuralSafety
India lacks a comprehensive food regulatory system, thus the
safetyoffoodandwaterbecomesakeyconcern.Thechallenges
range from supply of food to such a wide geographic spread,
coupled with issues of adulteration, counterfeiting and
spuriousproductsthataredetrimentaltopublichealth.
Food scams have plagued India. For instance, several reputed
food brands operating in India are prohibited in Western
countries.RecentlyinDecember2016,acourtinHaridwarfined
a leading Ayurveda FMCG firm for misbranding as well as
misleading advertisements of their products. Around 67
variantsofthepesticideswhicharebannedorrestrictedinmany
international markets, are used in India. This not only affects
the ground water, but the contaminants find their way into
agriculturalproducetoo.
India has one of the highest numbers of populace in the world
withoutaccesstosafewater.Oneofthekeyreasonsisattributed
to the poor management of water resources that becomes a
challenge in providing safe water to the entire population. The
health burden of poor water quality is enormous, especially in
rural areas of India. It is estimated that waterborne diseases
affectaround37.7millionIndiansannually.About140,000
Food&WaterSafety

children die from diarrheal diseases due to the usage of dirty
water. Around 73 million working days are lost annually due to
waterbornedisease. Thegovernmentshouldallocateresources
toregulatoryunitsmoreeffectively,strengtheninstitutionsand
capacitybuilding,andeffectivecoordinationamongagencies.
Safety Risks
The travel risk environment in India varies considerably across
thecountry.Potentialtargetsincludepublictransport,religious
sites, busy and unsecured areas, government, and military
buildings. There is risk to personal security in the state of J& K
due to the threat of terrorist activity, and ongoing political
violence. The recent violent movement led by Naxalities is
mainly concentrated in the rural areas of central and eastern
India, where local business personnel remain at risk to kidnap-
for-ransom,whileconductingoverlandjourneys.
Travel to the North-Eastern region requires logistical as well as
securitysupport,duetotherisksposedbybanditry,insurgency,
and tribal separatist activity. Travel restrictions could be
imposed in these areas at short notice, and permission is
required from the authorities to travel to certain 'inner-line'
areas. Petty crime such as picking of pockets and bag/chain-
snatchingiscommonincrowdedareassuchasmarkets,airports
and on buses, metros and trains (including overnight and long-
distance trains), as well as tourist places. Women travelers
shouldtakeparticularcare,evenwhentravellinginagroupand
avoid travelling alone on public transportation, especially at
night.
TravelSafety
Drinkingwaterquality
Source: World Resources Institute
No Breaches
1 Breach
2 Breach
3+ Breach
No Data
Groundwater Quality
(Number of BIS-standard breaches)
More than
People Live
in Areas of
Poor Water
Quality
100
MILLION

Environmental RisksIMPACT
LIKELIHOOD
While countries are in the process of
making their National Action Plans, it is
critical that environmental policymakers
in developing countries are actively
involved in this exercise, along with
policymakers from the agriculture and
health sectors.”
- Sunita Narain
Centre for Science and Environment
1
2
3
4
5
Natural Hazards
Air Pollution
Bio-diversity Loss
Waste Disposal
Water Scarcity
Pandemics

India, on account of its geographical position, climate and
geological setting, is the worst affected theatre of natural
hazardsintheSouth-Asianregion.Approximately85percentof
India is vulnerable to some natural hazard- from earthquake to
cyclones, tsunamis, floods, heat and cold waves, drought and
landslides.OfIndia's29states,22fallinthecategoryofdisaster-
prone.Almost58.6percentofthecountry'slandmassisproneto
earthquakesofmoderatetohighintensity.SomeofIndiancities
such as Srinagar, New Delhi, Patna, Lukhnow, Itanagar,
Shillong,Kohima,Guwahati,Imphalfallinseismiczones4or5.
Over40millionhectares(12percentofland)arepronetofloods
and river erosion; of the 7,516 km long coastline, close to 5,700
km is prone to cyclones and tsunamis; 68 per cent of the
cultivableareaisvulnerabletodroughtandhillyareasareatrisk
from landslides and avalanches. India is situated in a unique
geographical setting, making 'Natural Hazard' a major
operational risk for companies. Moreover, the impact of many
of these natural disasters becomes severe due to poor disaster
preparednessandlackofearlywarningsystems.
NaturalHazards Earthquake
The edge of the Indian tectonic plate runs through Pakistan,
North India, Nepal and the north-eastern parts of India.
Seismologists consider India's mountainous Northeast region
as the sixth major earthquake-prone belt in the world. Around
30 medium-to-low intensity earthquakes were reported in the
Northeast region of India in 2016. Most of these earthquakes
occurredintheTuensang,Phek,districtsofNagalandandafew
moreonWangling,Manipur.Inaddition,AssamandArunachal
have also witnessed earthquakes in Lakhipur, Haliakandhi and
Tezuareas.
Inthefirstweekof2017,Tripurawitnessedamoderateintensity
earthquake measuring 5.7 on the Richter scale, triggering
landslidesinthehillstateandjoltingthecountry'snortheast.
In 2016, earthquakes were also reported in Haryana and Delhi
(August), West Bengal and Bihar (August), and Maharashtra
(November). New Delhi and some part of National Capital
Region (NCR) felt tremors of 4.4 magnitude. Maharashtra
observed a medium intensity earthquake measuring 3.5 on
RichterscaleinMay,2016.
Environmental Risks

FloodsandDroughts
Every year, India receives rainfall from the southwest and
northeast monsoons, which leads to heavy rainfall in several
partsofIndia.AsmuchasagoodmonsoonisrequiredforIndia's
agricultural and water needs, the monsoon season also brings
with it massive flooding problems, not just along the regions
whichliealongtheriversinIndiabutalsoinIndia'surbanareas.
Thishasbeenatrendyear-on-yearinIndia.
.The unprecedented and unchecked population growth along
the riverbanks has been one of the major factors causing heavy
damage to life and property due to flooding. Another major
factorforthefloodingisincreasedincidentsoflandslidesinthe
Himalayan region, which have resulted in increased silt
deposition in the river's beds. In 2016, many parts of Mumbai,
Delhi and Gurgaon, Hyderabad, and Kolkata were submerged
due to water-logging resulting in severe disruption of daily life
in these cities. Severe flooding affected parts of Uttarakhand,
thenorth-easternstatesofAssamandArunachalPradesh,Uttar
Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, Telangana, and Maharashtra.
Morethan300peoplediedandmillionshadtobeevacuatedasa
result of the monsoon rains. In Bihar, around 150 lost their lives
and nearly half a million people were displaced. The western
Environmental Risks

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