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07 September 2015
Manpower Employment Outlook
Survey – Q4 2015
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey – Q4 2015
ManpowerGroup | 07 September 2015 2
MEOS Q4 2015 Summary
 The national Net Employment Outlook has fallen by two percentage points
to +4%, the weakest result in three years.
 Hiring in the North East (-2%) and North West (0%), and Yorkshire and
Humber (+3%) remain under the national average.
 The Outlook for Finance and Business Services fell for the fifth consecutive
quarter and now stands at +4%, its lowest level in three years.
 The capital’s Outlook is +8%, a one point fall on the quarter but well above
the national average.
 Public sector employers slipped into negative territory (-1%) while private
sector optimism remains on +5%.
 Construction has slipped back to +4% from +7% in the previous quarter, and
now stands at its weakest level for a year.
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey – Q4 2015
ManpowerGroup | 07 September 2015 3
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
-1
-3
-6
-5
-1
1 1 1 1
2 2
3
1
0
2 2
3
6 6
5
7
5
7 7 7
6 6 6
4
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
National NEO
MEOS: Since Q4 2008
2015
Lowest optimism since the fourth quarter of 2012
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey – Q4 2015
ManpowerGroup | 07 September 2015 4
Size of company breakdown
 Companies of all sizes have positive hiring intentions; low levels of volatility
 Micro, medium and large business all down
 Small businesses record no change
18
10
8
4
6
15
8
8
2
4
Large
Medium
Small
Micro
National Q4 '15 Q3 '15 -2
-2
n/c
-2
-3
QoQ change
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey – Q4 2015
ManpowerGroup | 07 September 2015 5
Industry sector breakdown
2
7
6
4
6
7
7
8
6
6
2
4
4
4
5
6
6
7
9
4
Q4 '15 Q3 '15
QoQ change
-2
+3
-1
-1
-1
-1
n/c
-2
-3
n/c
National
Electricity, Gas & Water
Mining & Quarrying
Manufacturing
Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing
Public & Social
Wholesale & Retail, Hotels &
Restaurants
Finance & Business Services
Construction
Transport, Storage & Comms
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey – Q4 2015
ManpowerGroup | 07 September 2015 6
Public/private sector breakdown
 Public sector intentions have dropped six points from +5 to -1.
 In contrast, private sector hiring remains on +5.
2
5
5
6
-3
-1
5
4
4Q '15 3Q '15
-2
n/c
-5
+1
QoQ change
*Data not seasonally adjusted
National
Private
Public
Not for Profit*
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey – Q4 2015
ManpowerGroup | 07 September 2015 7
Regions and nations breakdown
9
7
5
-1
9
2
3
4
9
9
9
8
6
-2
0
0
0
2
2
3
6
8
10
11
12
4
4Q '15
Q3 '15
QoQ change
National
East
Wales
East Midlands
London
South East
Yorkshire & The Humber
Northern Ireland
South West
Scotland
West Midlands
North West
North East
n/c
+4
+2
+1
-1
-2
n/c
n/c
-7
+1
-5
-7
-11
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey – Q4 2015
ManpowerGroup | 07 September 2015 8
UK employment intention heat map: Q4 2015
0
-2
+2
0
+3
+11
0
+10
+6+2
+12
+8
+8

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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey - MEOS Q4 2015

  • 1. 07 September 2015 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey – Q4 2015
  • 2. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey – Q4 2015 ManpowerGroup | 07 September 2015 2 MEOS Q4 2015 Summary  The national Net Employment Outlook has fallen by two percentage points to +4%, the weakest result in three years.  Hiring in the North East (-2%) and North West (0%), and Yorkshire and Humber (+3%) remain under the national average.  The Outlook for Finance and Business Services fell for the fifth consecutive quarter and now stands at +4%, its lowest level in three years.  The capital’s Outlook is +8%, a one point fall on the quarter but well above the national average.  Public sector employers slipped into negative territory (-1%) while private sector optimism remains on +5%.  Construction has slipped back to +4% from +7% in the previous quarter, and now stands at its weakest level for a year.
  • 3. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey – Q4 2015 ManpowerGroup | 07 September 2015 3 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 -1 -3 -6 -5 -1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 1 0 2 2 3 6 6 5 7 5 7 7 7 6 6 6 4 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 National NEO MEOS: Since Q4 2008 2015 Lowest optimism since the fourth quarter of 2012
  • 4. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey – Q4 2015 ManpowerGroup | 07 September 2015 4 Size of company breakdown  Companies of all sizes have positive hiring intentions; low levels of volatility  Micro, medium and large business all down  Small businesses record no change 18 10 8 4 6 15 8 8 2 4 Large Medium Small Micro National Q4 '15 Q3 '15 -2 -2 n/c -2 -3 QoQ change
  • 5. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey – Q4 2015 ManpowerGroup | 07 September 2015 5 Industry sector breakdown 2 7 6 4 6 7 7 8 6 6 2 4 4 4 5 6 6 7 9 4 Q4 '15 Q3 '15 QoQ change -2 +3 -1 -1 -1 -1 n/c -2 -3 n/c National Electricity, Gas & Water Mining & Quarrying Manufacturing Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing Public & Social Wholesale & Retail, Hotels & Restaurants Finance & Business Services Construction Transport, Storage & Comms
  • 6. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey – Q4 2015 ManpowerGroup | 07 September 2015 6 Public/private sector breakdown  Public sector intentions have dropped six points from +5 to -1.  In contrast, private sector hiring remains on +5. 2 5 5 6 -3 -1 5 4 4Q '15 3Q '15 -2 n/c -5 +1 QoQ change *Data not seasonally adjusted National Private Public Not for Profit*
  • 7. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey – Q4 2015 ManpowerGroup | 07 September 2015 7 Regions and nations breakdown 9 7 5 -1 9 2 3 4 9 9 9 8 6 -2 0 0 0 2 2 3 6 8 10 11 12 4 4Q '15 Q3 '15 QoQ change National East Wales East Midlands London South East Yorkshire & The Humber Northern Ireland South West Scotland West Midlands North West North East n/c +4 +2 +1 -1 -2 n/c n/c -7 +1 -5 -7 -11
  • 8. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey – Q4 2015 ManpowerGroup | 07 September 2015 8 UK employment intention heat map: Q4 2015 0 -2 +2 0 +3 +11 0 +10 +6+2 +12 +8 +8