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Manpower
Employment
Outlook Survey
Q3 2016
Tuesday, June 14, 2016
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey – Q3 2016
ManpowerGroup Tuesday, June 14, 2016 2
MEOS Q3 2016 Summary
• Signs that MEOS is cooling: Optimism ticks down for the second
successive quarter, with Brexit a likely factor
• Falling sentiment among large employers is a key driver: big business
has become increasingly downbeat in each of the last four quarters
• Construction digs deep: For the first time in over a decade Construction is
the most optimistic sector in MEOS. It has risen four points to +10
• Shopped till we dropped: Retail, wholesale and hospitality is the biggest
faller, down four points to +3 to record its least positive outlook in over two
years
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey – Q3 2016
ManpowerGroup Tuesday, June 14, 2016 3
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
-1
-3
-6
-5
-1
1 1 1 1
2 2
3
1
0
2 2
3
6 6
5
7
5
7 7 7
6 6 6
5
7
6
5
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3
2016
MEOS: Since 4Q 2008
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey – Q3 2016
ManpowerGroup Tuesday, June 14, 2016 4
Size of company breakdown
• Companies of all sizes have positive hiring intentions
• Large businesses down 2 points
• Micro businesses remain least optimistic
13
12
9
5
6
11
12
11
2
5
Large
Medium
Small
Micro
National Q3 '16 Q2 '16 -1
-3
+2
n/c
-2
QoQ change
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey – Q3 2016
ManpowerGroup Tuesday, June 14, 2016 5
Industry sector breakdown
-2
7
7
6
6
-1
8
6
5
6
-2
5
3
10
7
-2
9
6
9
5
Q3 '16
Q2 '16
QoQ change
National
Utilities
Manufacturing
Finance & Business Services
Mining & Quarrying
Transport, Storage and
Communications
Construction
Wholesale, Retail, Restaurants &
Hotels
Public & Social
Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing
-1
+4
n/c
+1
-1
+1
+4
-4
-2
n/c
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey – Q3 2016
ManpowerGroup Tuesday, June 14, 2016 6
Public/private sector breakdown
• Private sector hiring remains firm
• Not for Profit dipped
7
7
3
6
3
6
3
5
Q3 '16
Q2 '16
-1
n/c
-1
-4
QoQ change
*Data not seasonally adjusted
National
Public
Private
Not For Profit*
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey – Q3 2016
ManpowerGroup Tuesday, June 14, 2016 7
Regions and nations breakdown
6
7
6
6
11
4
9
4
9
8
2
9
6
3
5
10
1
1
11
7
3
9
9
5
11
5
Q3 '16
Q2 '16
QoQ change
National
West Midlands
North West
East Midlands
East
South East
London
Wales
South West
Yorkshire & the Humber
North East
Northern Ireland
Scotland
-1
+2
+3
+1
n/c
-1
-2
+7
-10
-5
+4
-2
-3
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey – Q3 2016
ManpowerGroup Tuesday, June 14, 2016 8
UK employment intention heat map: Q3 2016
+3
+10
+5
+5
+1
+11
+11
+9
+3+1
+9
+7

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MEOS Q3 2016

  • 2. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey – Q3 2016 ManpowerGroup Tuesday, June 14, 2016 2 MEOS Q3 2016 Summary • Signs that MEOS is cooling: Optimism ticks down for the second successive quarter, with Brexit a likely factor • Falling sentiment among large employers is a key driver: big business has become increasingly downbeat in each of the last four quarters • Construction digs deep: For the first time in over a decade Construction is the most optimistic sector in MEOS. It has risen four points to +10 • Shopped till we dropped: Retail, wholesale and hospitality is the biggest faller, down four points to +3 to record its least positive outlook in over two years
  • 3. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey – Q3 2016 ManpowerGroup Tuesday, June 14, 2016 3 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 -1 -3 -6 -5 -1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 1 0 2 2 3 6 6 5 7 5 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 7 6 5 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3 2016 MEOS: Since 4Q 2008
  • 4. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey – Q3 2016 ManpowerGroup Tuesday, June 14, 2016 4 Size of company breakdown • Companies of all sizes have positive hiring intentions • Large businesses down 2 points • Micro businesses remain least optimistic 13 12 9 5 6 11 12 11 2 5 Large Medium Small Micro National Q3 '16 Q2 '16 -1 -3 +2 n/c -2 QoQ change
  • 5. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey – Q3 2016 ManpowerGroup Tuesday, June 14, 2016 5 Industry sector breakdown -2 7 7 6 6 -1 8 6 5 6 -2 5 3 10 7 -2 9 6 9 5 Q3 '16 Q2 '16 QoQ change National Utilities Manufacturing Finance & Business Services Mining & Quarrying Transport, Storage and Communications Construction Wholesale, Retail, Restaurants & Hotels Public & Social Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing -1 +4 n/c +1 -1 +1 +4 -4 -2 n/c
  • 6. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey – Q3 2016 ManpowerGroup Tuesday, June 14, 2016 6 Public/private sector breakdown • Private sector hiring remains firm • Not for Profit dipped 7 7 3 6 3 6 3 5 Q3 '16 Q2 '16 -1 n/c -1 -4 QoQ change *Data not seasonally adjusted National Public Private Not For Profit*
  • 7. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey – Q3 2016 ManpowerGroup Tuesday, June 14, 2016 7 Regions and nations breakdown 6 7 6 6 11 4 9 4 9 8 2 9 6 3 5 10 1 1 11 7 3 9 9 5 11 5 Q3 '16 Q2 '16 QoQ change National West Midlands North West East Midlands East South East London Wales South West Yorkshire & the Humber North East Northern Ireland Scotland -1 +2 +3 +1 n/c -1 -2 +7 -10 -5 +4 -2 -3
  • 8. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey – Q3 2016 ManpowerGroup Tuesday, June 14, 2016 8 UK employment intention heat map: Q3 2016 +3 +10 +5 +5 +1 +11 +11 +9 +3+1 +9 +7

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. Northern Ireland