The MAPPA - Methodologies Applied to the Predictivity of Archaeological Potential – project (University of Pisa) is a research project aimed at the creation of a replicable predictive model of a map of archaeological potential in an urban area. The starting point has been a well‐organized data archive, so the research group focused on developing a webGIS and the Open Data application. The webGIS (MAPPAgis) offers the archaeological information layer, the building archaeology layers, the historical mapping layer and the geomorphological layer. The optimization of MAPPAgis is intrinsically linked to the MOD (MAPPA Open Data), the first Italian archaeological open data archive, that collects datasets of archaeological raw data and preliminary reports. Through the use of spatial and geostatistical analysis, the cooperation with geologists to analyze the ancient surrounding environment and with mathematicians to elaborate a specific algorithm, we realized a predictive mathematical model. Using the same criteria as those for assigning importance to web pages by search engines, we identified the relations that exist among finds, both in spatial and in functional terms. All these open products have a strong impact on archaeological heritage protection, territorial planning and historical knowledge.

1. Managing the future: new frontiers in Italian Open
Archaeology
Francesca Anichini, Nevio Dubbini, Gabriele Gattiglia, Fabio Fabiani,
Maria Letizia Gualandi (University of Pisa, Italy)
19th EAA Annual Meeting
4-8 September 2013, Pilzen, Czech Republic

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Predictive Map of Archaeological
Potential
Archaeological Map
Paleogeographical Map
Mathematical model Open digital archaeological archive
Open Data
Cooperation
Transparency
Geology
Archaeology
Mathematics
Pisa, Italy
Managing the future: new frontiers in Italian Open Archaeology

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DATA MODEL
•Urban data
•Historical
cartography data
•Geographical/
geomorphological
data
•Archaeological
data
PRIMARY DATA
•obtained data
SECONDARY DATA
Managing the future: new frontiers in Italian Open Archaeology

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MAPPAGIS
www.mappaproject.org/webgis
Managing the future: new frontiers in Italian Open Archaeology

5. OPEN DATA
www.mappaproject.org/mod
Managing the future: new frontiers in Italian Open Archaeology
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6. One can hardly think of complex mathematical models applied to
archaeological data, but consider that other fields of study “far
from” mathematics have welcomed worthwhile applications of
mathematics
Moreover new applications took advantage of mathematics, but
also posed new problem to mathematics itself!
 mathematical shape theory Provides answers to questions like
“when some points in the space are placed at random?” “What is a
random shape?”
Graph theory is the study of mathematical structures used to
model relations between objects (networks)
Link analysis studies the relationships among objects of different
types that are not apparent from isolated pieces of information
ARCHAEOLOGICAL
APPLICATIONS
OF MATHS
Managing the future: new frontiers in Italian Open Archaeology
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7. 7. Report,
explain,
predict
1. Real-world
problem
3. Formulate the
abstract
problem
4. Solve the abstract
problem
5. Interpret
the solution
6. Verify the
model
TESTING
2. Make assumptions
BASIC RULES governing the system
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
MATHEMATICAL
MODELS
STATISTICAL
MODELS
Managing the future: new frontiers in Italian Open Archaeology
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8. • represents the possibilities that a more or less significant
archaeological stratification is preserved
• is calculated by analyzing and studying a series of historical,
archaeological and paleo-environmental data retrieved from
various sources, with a degree of approximation that may
vary according to the quantity and quality of the data
provided and their spatial and contextual relationships
• is a factor independent on any other following intervention
that is carried out, which must be regarded as a contingent
risk factor
ARCHAEOLOGICAL
POTENTIAL
• type of settlement
• density of settlement
• multi-layering of deposits
• removable or non-removable
nature of archaeological
deposit
• degree of preservation of the
deposit
PARAMETERS
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 A key issue in detecting archaeological
potential is the identification of relations, both
in spatial and in functional terms, influencing
the probability of higher level structures
presence  influence the potential of an area
 A 3-d grid models the subsurface. A cell can
- attribute potential to surrounding cells, and
- receive importance by surrounding cells
 Analogy with criteria for assigning importance to
web pages by search engines cell = web pages
 In PageRank web pages
- attribute importance to pages they link to
- receive importance from pages linking to
Managing the future: new frontiers in Italian Open Archaeology
PAGERANK
ALGORITHM

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WORKFLOW
DIAGRAM
Archaeological findings :
Categorisation of
archaeological data
Shaping the urban elements
i.e. roman domus, medieval tower-
house etc
They operate on the expansion of archaeological potential
Creation of functional areas:
• Urban area
• Suburban area
• Rural area
Relations between
archaeological categories in
the same historical period
Creation of
paleogeographical maps
Assigning the potential value of
archaeological information
Relations between
archaeological categories
through different periods
Synchronic level
Diachronic level
[*]
[**]
[***]
Managing the future: new frontiers in Italian Open Archaeology

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• production
• building techniques
• trade
• food
• agricolture/breeding
• worship
• waste management
• political/institutional aspects
• social and gender aspects
• physical anthropology
• fauna/flora
• geomorphology
• viability/transport
• health and hygiene
• warfare
• land management
• leisure
• tradition
• water system
Every category of archaeological
findings can give information
about:
For each of them we
assign a binary value.
The sum of values
gives the
archaeological potential
of each category
[*]
Managing the future: new frontiers in Italian Open Archaeology
Assigning the potential value of archaeological information

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Relations between archaeological category in the same historical period
Medieval tower-house
shop
alley
road
courtyard
[**]
Managing the future: new frontiers in Italian Open Archaeology

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[***]
Creation of functional areas
Using the archaeological findings we
computed automatically on the basis
of the rules given by the
archaeologists the functional areas,
i.e. levels of
spatial and functional organization
(e.g. urban, suburban, rural areas) in
which the urban space is organized.
Archaeological
findings
Functional area
Managing the future: new frontiers in Italian Open Archaeology

14. Geomorphological, stratigraphic geophisical and archaeological
data have been processed using geostatistical techniques in order
to get temporal DEMs for 7 periods from Protohistory to
Contemporary Age and to create
paleogeographical maps
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Creation of paleogeographical maps

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PAGERANK
FOR
ARCHAEOLOGICAL
POTENTIAL
The relative values of links are
obtained weighting by the
paleogeographical datum
The area of influence is
proportional to the value of
the functional area the cell
belongs to
Managing the future: new frontiers in Italian Open Archaeology
The total “weight” of links distributed by a cell with finds will
vary on the basis of the estimated probability of the presence
of certain finds near particular finds

16. Contemporary Age
Modern Age
Late Medieval period
Early Medieval period
Roman period
Etruscan period
Protohistory
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CORE-
DRILLINGS
VALIDATION
The final result has obtained after a validation of
the results provided by a preliminary version,
through 14 new core-drillings, with which the
algorithm was tested, in order to obtain a better
fitting model.
Managing the future: new frontiers in Italian Open Archaeology

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THE MAP OF ARCHAEOLOGICAL POTENTIAL OF THE URBAN AREA OF PISA
Managing the future: new frontiers in Italian Open Archaeology
The map of archaeological potential is given by
the composition of the 7 layers.
It’s weighted sum in which archaeological
periods with few information available are taken
more into account.

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Managing the future: new frontiers in Italian Open Archaeology
Pisa in the Middle
Ages: archaeology,
spatial analysis and
predictive models
RESEARCH

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Is it enough
DILEMMA
?
Managing the future: new frontiers in Italian Open Archaeology

21.  Trends in data storage
- digitalization  analysis through computers
- usability  availability of data in different places and
through different devices
 Though the process is more evident in other fields, also in
archaeology these trends encouraged the production of a huge
quantity of data, and the development of open data archives or
repositories
The only way of analyzing huge quantity of digital (and
heterogeneous!) data is by means of automatic methods
 Here mathematics come into play: the way of improving
analyses is moving from having the best data, to having the best
way to analyze data
BIG
ARCHAEOLOGICAL
DATA
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BIG DATA are the
solution
for sustainable
archeology
!
Managing the future: new frontiers in Italian Open Archaeology

23. Managing the future: new frontiers in Italian Open Archaeology
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@mappaproject
Progetto MAPPA
www.mappaproject.org
All our
publications are
Open Access