The very first Drilling Productivity Report (DRP) issued by the U.S. Energy Information Administation. The report, using charts and graphs, shows how efficient (or not) rigs are at drilling, and how productive (or not) wells are, by region/shale play. Among the very important metrics tracked is the decline rate of newly drilled wells–how quickly the gas and oil flowing out of shale wells peters out. This first report shows the Marcellus Shale has (astonishingly) hit 12 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas production.
1. Independent Statistics & Analysis
U.S. Energy Information
Administration
October 2013
Drilling Productivity Report
For key tight oil and shale gas regions
Bakken
Marcellus
Niobrara
Permian
Haynesville
Eagle Ford
The six regions analyzed in this report accounted for nearly 90% of domestic oil production
growth and virtually all domestic natural gas production growth during 2011-12.
Contents
Year-over-year summary
Bakken
Eagle Ford
Haynesville
Marcellus
Niobrara
Permian
Explanatory notes
Sources
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2. Year-over-year summary
October 2013
drilling data through September
projected production through November
Drilling Productivity Report
New-well oil production per rig
New-well gas production per rig
barrels/day
thousand cubic feet/day
November-2012
November-2013
November-2012
1,000
November-2013
6,000
5,000
750
4,000
3,000
500
2,000
250
1,000
0
0
Bakken
Eagle Ford
Haynesville
Marcellus
Niobrara
Legacy oil production change
Eagle Ford Haynesville
Marcellus
Niobrara
Permian
Marcellus
Niobrara
Permian
Legacy gas production change
thousand barrels/day
Bakken
Bakken
Permian
million cubic feet/day
Eagle Ford
Haynesville
Marcellus
Niobrara
Permian
0
Bakken
Eagle Ford Haynesville
0
(50)
(10)
(100)
(20)
(150)
(30)
(200)
(40)
(250)
(300)
(50)
(350)
(60)
(400)
November-2012
November-2013
(450)
(70)
November-2012
November-2013
Indicated monthly change in oil production (Nov vs. Oct)
Indicated monthly change in gas production (Nov vs. Oct)
thousand barrels/day
million cubic feet/day
November-2012
November-2012
November-2013
November-2013
500
40
400
30
300
20
200
10
100
0
0
-100
-10
-200
-300
-20
Bakken
Eagle Ford
Haynesville
Marcellus
Niobrara
Bakken
Permian
Eagle Ford Haynesville
Oil production
Niobrara
Permian
Natural gas production
thousand barrels/day
Marcellus
million cubic feet/day
November-2012
November-2012
November-2013
2,000
12,000
1,600
November-2013
10,000
8,000
1,200
6,000
800
4,000
400
2,000
0
0
Bakken
Eagle Ford
Haynesville
Marcellus
Niobrara
Permian
U. S. Energy Information Administration | Drilling Productivity Report
Bakken
Eagle Ford Haynesville
Marcellus
Niobrara
Permian
2
3. Bakken
October 2013
drilling data through September
projected production through November
Drilling Productivity Report
482
459
Oil
+23
barrels/day
month over month
Monthly
additions
from one
average rig
November
October
barrels/day
Bakken
New-well oil production per rig
Rig count
rigs
barrels/day
600
October
Bakken
New-well gas production per rig
200
400
thousand cubic feet/day
month over month
thousand cubic feet/day
250
rig count
Gas
+18
Rig count
rigs
thousand cubic feet/day
3,600
3,000
new-well oil production per rig
500
463
445
November
150
300
250
new-well gas production per rig
2,400
200
rig count
150
1,800
100
200
50
100
0
2007
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
100
1,200
50
600
0
2007
0
2008
2009
2010
Bakken
Legacy oil production change
2012
2013
Bakken
Legacy gas production change
thousand barrels/day
0
2011
million cubic feet/day
0
(10)
(10)
(20)
(20)
(30)
(30)
(40)
(40)
(50)
(60)
(50)
(70)
2007
(60)
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Bakken
Indicated change in oil production (Nov vs. Oct)
Bakken
Indicated change in natural gas production (Nov vs. Oct)
thousand barrels/day
100
million cubic feet/day
100
+86
-60
+26
50
-54
+29
50
0
+83
0
Oct
935
Mbbl/d
Production
from
new wells
Legacy
production
change
Bakken
Oil production
Net
change
Nov
961
Mbbl/d
Oil +26
thousand barrels/day
month over month
thousand barrels/day
1,000
Oct
1,067
MMcf/d
Production
from
new wells
Legacy
production
change
Bakken
Natural gas production
Net
change
Nov
1,096
MMcf/d
Gas +29
million cubic feet/day
month over month
million cubic feet/day
6,000
5,000
800
4,000
600
3,000
400
2,000
200
0
2007
1,000
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
U. S. Energy Information Administration | Drilling Productivity Report
2013
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
3
4. Eagle Ford
October 2013
drilling data through September
projected production through November
Drilling Productivity Report
404
396
Oil
+8
barrels/day
month over month
Monthly
additions
from one
average rig
November
October
barrels/day
Eagle Ford
New-well oil production per rig
Rig count
rigs
barrels/day
600
Eagle Ford
New-well gas production per rig
150
200
100
100
50
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Rig count
rigs
3,000
200
300
thousand cubic feet/day
month over month
thousand cubic feet/day
3,600
250
400
Gas
+16
thousand cubic feet/day
300
rig count
0
2007
October
1,010
994
350
new-well oil production per rig
500
November
350
new-well gas production per rig
2,400
300
rig count
250
200
1,800
150
1,200
100
600
0
2007
50
0
2008
2009
2010
Eagle Ford
Legacy oil production change
2012
2013
Eagle Ford
Legacy gas production change
thousand barrels/day
0
(10)
(20)
(30)
(40)
(50)
(60)
(70)
(80)
(90)
2007
2008
2011
million cubic feet/day
0
(20)
(40)
(60)
(80)
(100)
(120)
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
(140)
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Eagle Ford
Indicated change in oil production (Nov vs. Oct)
Eagle Ford
Indicated change in natural gas production (Nov vs. Oct)
thousand barrels/day
million cubic feet/day
+261
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Oct
Production
4,404
from
MMcf/d
new wells
+105
-81
+24
100
50
0
Oct
1,069
Mbbl/d
Production
from
new wells
Legacy
production
change
Eagle Ford
Oil production
Net
change
Nov
1,093
Mbbl/d
Oil +24
thousand barrels/day
month over month
thousand barrels/day
1,200
+128
Legacy
production
change
Eagle Ford
Natural gas production
Net
change
Nov
4,532
MMcf/d
Gas +128
million cubic feet/day
month over month
million cubic feet/day
7,000
6,000
1,000
5,000
800
4,000
600
3,000
400
2,000
200
0
2007
-133
1,000
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
U. S. Energy Information Administration | Drilling Productivity Report
2013
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
4
5. Haynesville
October 2013
drilling data through September
projected production through November
Drilling Productivity Report
45
44
Oil
+1
barrels/day
month over month
Monthly
additions
from one
average rig
November
October
barrels/day
Haynesville
New-well oil production per rig
Rig count
rigs
barrels/day
1,000
November
October
5,018
4,983
Gas
+35
thousand cubic feet/day
month over month
thousand cubic feet/day
Haynesville
New-well gas production per rig
Rig count
rigs
300
250
400
200
0
2007
150
2,000
100
50
600
3,000
100
rig count
4,000
150
800
5,000
200
new-well oil production per rig
thousand cubic feet/day
6,000
1,000
50
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
300
new-well gas production per rig
250
rig count
0
2007
200
0
2008
2009
2010
Haynesville
Legacy oil production change
2012
2013
Haynesville
Legacy gas production change
thousand barrels/day
0
2011
million cubic feet/day
0
(100)
(200)
(1)
(300)
(400)
(2)
(500)
(600)
(3)
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
(700)
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Haynesville
Indicated change in oil production (Nov vs. Oct)
Haynesville
Indicated change in natural gas production (Nov vs. Oct)
thousand barrels/day
million cubic feet/day
250
2.0
+2
+1
-1
1.5
-50
0.0
-120
50
0.5
-348
150
1.0
+228
-150
Oct
61
Mbbl/d
Production
from
new wells
Legacy
production
change
Haynesville
Oil production
Net
change
Nov
62
Mbbl/d
Oil +1
thousand barrels/day
month over month
thousand barrels/day
2,000
Oct
6,721
MMcf/d
Production
from
new wells
Legacy
production
change
Haynesville
Natural gas production
Net
change
Nov
6,601
MMcf/d
Gas -120
million cubic feet/day
month over month
million cubic feet/day
12,000
10,000
1,600
8,000
1,200
6,000
800
4,000
400
0
2007
2,000
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
U. S. Energy Information Administration | Drilling Productivity Report
2013
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
5
6. Marcellus
October 2013
drilling data through September
projected production through November
Drilling Productivity Report
38
36
Oil
+2
barrels/day
month over month
Monthly
additions
from one
average rig
November
October
barrels/day
Marcellus
New-well oil production per rig
Rig count
rigs
barrels/day
1,000
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
new-well oil production per rig
800
rig count
600
400
200
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
November
October
5,980
5,820
Gas
+160
thousand cubic feet/day
month over month
thousand cubic feet/day
Marcellus
New-well gas production per rig
Rig count
rigs
thousand cubic feet/day
6,000
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
new-well gas production per rig
4,800
rig count
3,600
2,400
1,200
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
Marcellus
Legacy oil production change
2012
2013
Marcellus
Legacy gas production change
thousand barrels/day
0
2011
million cubic feet/day
0
(40)
(1)
(80)
(120)
(2)
(160)
(3)
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
(200)
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Marcellus
Indicated change in oil production (Nov vs. Oct)
Marcellus
Indicated change in natural gas production (Nov vs. Oct)
thousand barrels/day
4.0
million cubic feet/day
600
+4
+3
-1
3.0
+579
-171
+408
400
2.0
200
1.0
0.0
0
Oct
48
Mbbl/d
Production
from
new wells
Legacy
production
change
Marcellus
Oil production
Net
change
Nov
51
Mbbl/d
Oil +3
thousand barrels/day
month over month
thousand barrels/day
2,000
Oct
12,237
MMcf/d
Production
from
new wells
Legacy
production
change
Marcellus
Natural gas production
Net
change
Nov
12,645
MMcf/d
Gas +408
million cubic feet/day
month over month
million cubic feet/day
14,000
12,000
1,600
10,000
1,200
8,000
800
6,000
4,000
400
0
2007
2,000
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
U. S. Energy Information Administration | Drilling Productivity Report
2013
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
6
7. Niobrara
October 2013
drilling data through September
projected production through November
Drilling Productivity Report
312
305
Oil
+7
barrels/day
month over month
Monthly
additions
from one
average rig
November
October
barrels/day
Niobrara
New-well oil production per rig
Rig count
rigs
barrels/day
600
October
978
1,038
rig count
3,000
80
300
60
200
40
100
20
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Rig count
rigs
thousand cubic feet/day
3,600
100
400
thousand cubic feet/day
month over month
Niobrara
New-well gas production per rig
120
new-well oil production per rig
Gas
-60
thousand cubic feet/day
140
500
0
2007
November
140
120
100
2,400
80
1,800
60
1,200
600
0
2007
40
new-well gas production per rig
20
rig count
2008
2009
0
2010
Niobrara
Legacy oil production change
2012
2013
Niobrara
Legacy gas production change
thousand barrels/day
0
2011
million cubic feet/day
0
(5)
(50)
(10)
(100)
(15)
(150)
(20)
(200)
(25)
2007
(250)
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Niobrara
Indicated change in oil production (Nov vs. Oct)
Niobrara
Indicated change in natural gas production (Nov vs. Oct)
thousand barrels/day
million cubic feet/day
100
+30
+7
-23
30
+94
-154
-60
50
20
0
10
-50
0
-100
Oct
260
Mbbl/d
Production
from
new wells
Legacy
production
change
Niobrara
Oil production
Net
change
Nov
267
Mbbl/d
Oil +7
thousand barrels/day
month over month
thousand barrels/day
1,000
Oct
4,610
MMcf/d
Production
from
new wells
Legacy
production
change
Niobrara
Natural gas production
Net
change
Nov
4,550
MMcf/d
Gas -60
million cubic feet/day
month over month
million cubic feet/day
6,000
5,000
800
4,000
600
3,000
400
2,000
200
0
2007
1,000
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
U. S. Energy Information Administration | Drilling Productivity Report
2013
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
7
8. Permian
October 2013
drilling data through September
projected production through November
Drilling Productivity Report
79
79
Oil
0
barrels/day
month over month
Monthly
additions
from one
average rig
November
October
barrels/day
Permian
New-well oil production per rig
Rig count
rigs
barrels/day
600
175
173
November
October
Gas
+2
thousand cubic feet/day
month over month
thousand cubic feet/day
Permian
New-well gas production per rig
Rig count
rigs
600
thousand cubic feet/day
3,600
500
3,000
400
400
2,400
300
300
1,800
300
200
200
1,200
200
100
100
600
100
new-well oil production per rig
500
rig count
0
2007
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
600
new-well gas production per rig
0
2007
500
rig count
400
0
2008
2009
2010
Permian
Legacy oil production change
2012
2013
Permian
Legacy gas production change
thousand barrels/day
0
2011
million cubic feet/day
0
(5)
(20)
(10)
(40)
(15)
(60)
(20)
(80)
(25)
(30)
(100)
(35)
(120)
(40)
2007
(140)
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Permian
Indicated change in oil production (Nov vs. Oct)
Permian
Indicated change in natural gas production (Nov vs. Oct)
thousand barrels/day
million cubic feet/day
80
+35
+1
-34
30
+77
-74
+3
60
20
40
10
20
0
0
Oct
1,292
Mbbl/d
Production
from
new wells
Legacy
production
change
Permian
Oil production
Net
change
Nov
1,292
Mbbl/d
Oil +1
thousand barrels/day
month over month
thousand barrels/day
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
U. S. Energy Information Administration | Drilling Productivity Report
2013
Oct
4,735
MMcf/d
Production
from
new wells
Legacy
production
change
Permian
Natural gas production
million cubic feet/day
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
2007
2008
2009
Net
change
Nov
4,739
MMcf/d
Gas +3
million cubic feet/day
month over month
2010
2011
2012
2013
8
9. Explanatory notes
October 2013
Drilling Productivity Report
The Drilling Productivity Report uses recent data on the total number of drilling rigs in operation along
with estimates of drilling productivity and estimated changes in production from existing oil and natural
gas wells to provide estimated changes in oil and natural gas production for six key fields. EIA’s
approach does not distinguish between oil-directed rigs and gas-directed rigs because once a well is
completed it may produce both oil and gas; more than half of the wells do that.
Monthly additions from one average rig
Monthly additions from one average rig represent EIA’s estimate of an average rig’s1 contribution to
production of oil and natural gas from new wells.2 The estimation of new-well production per rig uses
several months of recent historical data on total production from new wells for each field divided by the
region's monthly rig count, lagged by two months.3 Current- and next-month values are listed on the top
header. The month-over-month change is listed alongside, with +/- signs and color-coded arrows to
highlight the growth or decline in oil (brown) or natural gas (blue).
New-well oil/gas production per rig
Charts present historical estimated monthly additions from one average rig coupled with the number of
total drilling rigs as reported by Baker Hughes.
Legacy oil and natural gas production change
Charts present EIA’s estimates of total oil and gas production changes from all the wells other than the
new wells. The trend is dominated by the well depletion rates, but other circumstances can influence the
direction of the change. For example, well freeze-offs or hurricanes can cause production to significantly
decline in any given month, resulting in a production increase the next month when production simply
returns to normal levels.
Projected change in monthly oil/gas production
Charts present the combined effects of new-well production and changes to legacy production. Total
new-well production is offset by the anticipated change in legacy production to derive the net change in
production. The estimated change in production does not reflect external circumstances that can affect
the actual rates, such as infrastructure constraints, bad weather, or shut-ins based on environmental or
economic issues.
Oil/gas production
Charts present oil and natural gas production from both new and legacy wells since 2007. This
production is based on all wells reported to the state oil and gas agencies. Where state data are not
immediately available, EIA estimates the production based on estimated changes in new-well oil/gas
production and the corresponding legacy change.
Footnotes:
1. The monthly average rig count used in this report is calculated from weekly data on total oil and gas rigs
reported by Baker Hughes
2. A new well is defined as one that began producing for the first time in the previous month. Each well belongs to
the new-well category for only one month. Reworked and recompleted wells are excluded from the calculation.
3. Rig count data lag production data because EIA has observed that the best predictor of the number of new
wells beginning production in a given month is the count of rigs in operation two months earlier.
U. S. Energy Information Administration | Drilling Productivity Report
9
10. Sources
October 2013
Drilling Productivity Report
The data used in the preparation of this report come from the following sources. EIA is solely
responsible for the analysis, calculations, and conclusions.
Drilling Info (http://www.drillinginfo.com) Source of production, permit, and spud data for counties
associated with this report. Source of real-time rig location to estimate new wells spudded and completed
throughout the United States.
Baker Hughes (http://www.bakerhughes.com) Source of rig and well counts by county, state, and basin.
North Dakota Oil and Gas Division (https://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas) Source of well production, permit,
and completion data in the counties associated with this report in North Dakota
Railroad Commission of Texas (http://www.rrc.state.tx.us) Source of well production, permit, and
completion data in the counties associated with this report in Texas
Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection
(https://www.paoilandgasreporting.state.pa.us/publicreports/Modules/Welcome/Welcome.aspx) Source
of well production, permit, and completion data in the counties associated with this report in
Pennsylvania
West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection (http://www.dep.wv.gov/oil-andgas/Pages/default.aspx) Source of well production, permit, and completion data in the counties
associated with this report in West Virginia
Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission (http://cogcc.state.co.us) Source of well production,
permit, and completion data in the counties associated with this report in Colorado
Wyoming Oil and Conservation Commission (http://wogcc.state.wy.us ) Source of well production,
permit, and completion data in the counties associated with this report in Wyoming
Louisiana Department of Natural Resources (http://dnr.louisiana.gov) Source of well production,
permit, and completion data in the counties associated with this report in Louisiana
U. S. Energy Information Administration | Drilling Productivity Report
10