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The only sustainable future for marketing
                              - professionalism and accountability




     by Professor Malcolm McDonald

     Plekhanov University of Economics 29th January 2013




This presentation is the copyright of Professor Malcolm McDonald
Agenda

• What goes wrong without excellent marketing
• The uselessness of Profit and Loss Accounts
  and Balance Sheets
• In order to become the drivers of corporate
  strategy, marketers must become more
  professional and more accountable financially


                                              Page 2
Inter Tech’s 5 year performance


Performance (£million)      Base Year      1      2       3      4      5
Sales Revenue                  £254      £293   £318     £387   £431   £454
- Cost of goods sold            135       152    167      201    224    236
Gross Contribution             £119      £141   £151     £186   £207   £218
- Manufacturing overhead        48        58     63       82     90     95
- Marketing & Sales             18        23     24       26     27     28
- Research & Development        22        23     23       25     24     24
Net Profit                      £16       £22    £26     £37    £50    £55
Return on Sales (%)            6.3%      7.5%   8.2%     9.6%   11.6% 12.1%
Assets                         £141      £162   £167     £194   £205   £206
Assets (% of sales)            56%       55%    53%      50%    48%    45%
Return on Assets (%)          11.3%     13.5% 15.6% 19.1% 24.4% 26.7%



                                                                       Page 3
Why Market Growth Rates Are
                 Important
        InterTech’s 5 Year Market-Based Performance
Performance (£million)       Base Year    1     2      3     4     5
Market Growth                 18.3%      23.4% 17.6% 34.4% 24.0% 17.9%
InterTech Sales Growth (%)    12.8%      17.4% 11.2% 27.1% 16.5% 10.9%
Market Share(%)               20.3%      19.1% 18.4% 17.1% 16.3% 14.9%

Customer Retention (%)        88.2%      87.1% 85.0% 82.2% 80.9% 80.0%
New Customers (%)             11.7%      12.9% 14.9% 24.1% 22.5% 29.2%
% Dissatisfied Customers      13.6%      14.3% 16.1% 17.3% 18.9% 19.6%

Relative Product Quality       +10%      +8%   +5%    +3%   +1%   0%
Relative Service Quality       +0%       +0%   -20%   -3%   -5%   -8%
Relative New Product Sales     +8%       +8%   +7%    +5%   +1%   -4%




                                                                       Page 4
Measurement of segment profitability


                                Total Segment Segment Segment Segment Segment Segment
                               Market    1       2       3       4       5       6


Percentage of market           100.0   14.8     9.5    27.1    18.8    18.8    11.0
represented by segment

Percentage of all profits in   100.0    7.1     4.9    14.7    21.8    28.5    23.0
total market produced by
segment

Ratio of profit produced by     1.00   0.48    0.52    0.54    1.16    1.52    2.09
segment to weight of
segment in total population

Defection rate                  23%    20%     17%     15%     28%     30%     35%



                                                                               Page 5
Balance sheet

   Assets           Liabilities
 - Land             - Shares
 - Buildings        - Loans
 - Plant            - Overdrafts
 - Vehicles         etc.
 etc.




£100 million        £100 million


                                   Page 6
Balance sheet

    Assets              Liabilities

- Land              - Shares
- Buildings         - Loans
- Plant             - Overdrafts
- Vehicles          etc.
etc.



£100 million           £900 million


                                      Page 7
Balance sheet

    Assets              Liabilities

- Land              - Shares
- Buildings         - Loans
- Plant             - Overdrafts
- Vehicles          etc.


Goodwill £800m


 £900 million           £900 million


                                       Page 8
Intangibles


    P and G have paid £31 billion for Gillette, but have bought only £4 billion of tangible assets

-   Gillette brand                                                         £ 4.0 billion
-   Duracell brand                                                         £ 2.5 billion
-   Oral B                                                                 £ 2.0 billion
-   Braun                                                                  £ 1.5 billion
-   Retail and supplier network                                            £10.0 billion
-   Gillette innovative capability                                         £ 7.0 billion
                                                                   TOTAL   £27.0 billion

(David Haigh, Brand Finance, Marketing Magazine, 1st April 2005)




                                                                                             Page 9
Brands Increasingly Drive Business Results
Brands affect business value by influencing the behaviour of a wide range of Shell’s
stakeholders, some of which directly impact Shell’s P&L (and hence value)

                         STAKEHOLDER                   STAKEHOLDER                 FINANCIAL      SHAREHOLDER
                          PERCEPTION                     BEHAVIOUR                   IMPACT          VALUE

                                                   • Pay price premium
                          Customers                                                Revenues
                              - individuals,
                                                   • Buy more
                               businesses
                          Suppliers /              • Lower prices
                           Partners                • Better terms                  Costs
               Brand         - businesses,         • Willingness to partner        Revenues
Trademarks




                             energy asset
                                owners             •(more opportunities)
                          Employees
                                                   • Better retention
                         - current and potential                                   Costs
                                                   • Lower salary expectations
             Reputation Shareholders /                                             Productivity
                                                   • Better qualified candidates
                              Bankers
                              - individual and
                                 institutional     • Higher PE ratio
              Indirect      Other                  • Lower volatility              Costs
             influence   Stakeholders                                                               Influences
              on value                             • Lower borrowing costs         Risk           business and
                          - government, media,
                             opinion formers,      • Better repayment conditions                   brand value
                            academics, public,
                            environmentalists
                                                                                                        Page 10
Asset Breakdown for the top 10 countries by
Enterprise Value (US$ millions, 2011)




                                              Page 11
The historic rift between marketers and the finance
         department, caused by marketing’s reluctance to be
          accountable for what they do, is as marked as ever




Tense relations between
CFOs and Marketers are             “Marketers have constantly hidden
dividing boardrooms over            behind a fog of measures that are
 the value of marketing.            based purely on tactical marketing
 One in three CFOs said             activity, rather than solid financial
   they did not believe            metrics that are relevant to the City”.
  marketing to be crucial
 in determining strategy.

                                                        “Marketing in 3D”
                                                            Deloitte


                                                                      Page 12
The Cultural Web (What senior non marketers believe about
                                               marketers)
                                                              Symbols

                                                              • Cars
                                                              • Offices
                                            Stories           • Terminology       Power
                                           and Myths          • Statistics      Structures
                                      •    Mud doesn‟t stick • Lunch
                                      •    Golden child                      • Research withheld
                                      •    Quick promotion                   • Take credit for
                                      •    No loyalty                           others work
                                      •    Churn              Paradigm       • Jargon
                                      •    Costs
                                      •    Experience       • Unaccountable
                                                            • Untouchable
                                            Rituals         • Expensive
                                                            • Slippery        Organisational
                                          • Planning                            Structures
                                          • Delegating                        • Lack of structure
                                          • Deadlines                         • Internal focus
                                                               Control
                                          • Off site                          • Always in
                                                               Systems
                                            meetings                            meetings
                                                           • 10.00-16.00 hrs
                                                           • Lunch
                                                           • Travel
                                                           • Soft measurement
                                                           • For self
Source: „Defining a Marketing Paradigm‟ (Baker, S. 2000)                                            Page 13
The purpose of strategic marketing

The overall purpose of strategic marketing,
and its principal focus is the identification and
creation of sustainable competitive
advantage.




                                               Page 14
Definition of marketing
Marketing is a process for:
• defining markets
• quantifying the needs of the customer groups (segments) within these
   markets
• putting together the value propositions to meet these needs, communicating
   these value propositions to all those people in the organisation responsible
   for delivering them and getting their buy-in to their role
• playing an appropriate part in delivering these value propositions (usually only
   communications)
• monitoring the value actually delivered.
For this process to be effective, organisations need to be consumer/
customer-driven




                                                                            Page 15
Map of the marketing domain
          Define markets
           & understand
               value




             Asset         Determine
Monitor
             Base             value
 value
                           Proposition




             Deliver
              value
                                         Page 16
In capital markets, success is measured in terms
of shareholder value added, having taken account
  of the risks associated with future strategies,
 the time value of money and the cost of capital.




                                               17
Financial Risk and Return
             High
                  1




Return            2



                  3



             Low

                        Low                                         High
                                                             Risk
Adapted from Professor Keith Ward, Cranfield School of Management
                                                                           Page 18
The route to Sustainable Competitive Advantage (SCA)

Differentiation        High
                       Price
                                      Sales Revenue
                       High
                       Volume

                                Economies       Low Business
                  Lower          of Scale           Risk        Positive
Operations                                                                      SCA
                  Costs          Learning       Low Financial    NPV
                                  Curve             Risk



                  Gearing
                  Interest Cover
                                               High Cash
Financial         Working Capital Ratio
                                                 Flows
                  Operational Leverage

                                                                      Page 19
Map of the marketing domain
                   Define markets       Strategic zone
                    & understand         where metrics
                                        are defined
                        value           (Level 1)




                      Asset         Determine
       Monitor
                      Base             value
        value
                                    Proposition



Measurement zone
where metrics
are applied           Deliver
(Levels 2 & 3)         value

                                               Page Page 20
                                                    20
What is Marketing Due Diligence?

                 Marketing Due
                    Diligence
                Risk Assessment



Market Risk:     Strategy risk:   Implementation risk:
Is the market   Will we get our     Will we get our
    there?      planned share?      planned profit?




                                                Page 21
Sensitivity to business risk

                                                                                                                                        Marketing Due
                                                                                                                                           Diligence
                                                                                                                                       Risk Assessment
                                         Low market share          High market share                                               Low competitive intensity   High competitive intensity                                               High margins               Low margins
Low growth intent High growth intent




                                                                                            Low growth intent High growth intent




                                                                                                                                                                                            Low growth intent High growth intent
                                            market risk
                                                         MarketHighly sensitive
                                       Moderately sensitive to
                                                                  Risk:
                                                                 to market risk
                                                                                                                                           Share risk: share risk to
                                                                                                                                   Moderately sensitive to
                                                                                                                                        share risk
                                                                                                                                                      Highly sensitive                                                               Profit risk:
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Moderately sensitive to     Highly sensitive to
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         profit risk                profit risk
                                                         Is the market                                                                   Will we get our                                                                           Will we get our
                                                             there?                                                                      planned share?                                                                            planned profit?
                                          Low sensitivity to     Moderately sensitive to                                               Low sensitivity to       Moderately sensitive to
                                            market risk               market risk                                                                                                                                                      Low sensitivity to     Moderately sensitive to
                                                                                                                                          share risk                 share risk
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          profit risk              profit risk




                                                                                       Sensitivity to each source
                                                                                          of risk is dependent
                                                                                            on the source of
                                                                                       growth, current share and
                                                                                            planned margins
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Page 22
Market Risk Profile
• Product Category Existence   The marketing strategy has a higher
                               probability of success if the product
                               category is well established

• Segment Existence            If the target segment is well established

                               If the sales volumes are well supported by
• Sales Volumes                evidence

                               If the forecast growth is in line with
• Forecast Growth              historical trends

                               If the pricing levels are conservative relative
• Pricing Assumptions          to current pricing levels




                                                                        Page 23
Ansoff matrix
                           PRODUCTS
                        increasing technological
                  Present       newness New


     Present      Market               Product
                Penetration          Development
MARKETS
increasing
  market
 newness
                  Market
          New                        Diversification
                 Extension



                                                       Page 24
Gap analysis summary
                                              Profit improvement



      Productivity improvement                                                   Sales growth



             Existing assets                   Change             Market             Market               Product
                                              asset base        penetration        development          development

             Improve
  Cost                                   Improve
              Asset        Increase
reduction                               Product/                      Take            New        Convert    Existing    New
            Utilisation                              Increase
                             Price/                               competitors’      segments    Non-users   markets    markets
                                        Customer       usage
            (eg more/       Reduce
                                           mix                     customers
              better       discounts
            sales calls)
      Cash and margin focus                                                             Growth focus

                            Investment                     Divestment
                             •Acquisition                Redevelopment
                           •Joint ventures              of capital resources
                                 •etc
                                       Capital Utilisation focus

                                                                                                                       Page 25
Market Share Risk Profile
•   Target Market Definition        The marketing strategy has a higher probability of success
                                    if the target is defined in terms of homogeneous
                                    segments and is characterised by utilisable data




                                    If the proposition delivered to each segment is different
•   Proposition Specification        from that delivered to other segments and addresses the
                                     needs which characterised the target segment


                                    If the strengths and weaknesses of the organisation are
•   SWOT Alignment                  independently assessed and the choice of target and
                                    proposition leverages strengths and minimises
                                    weaknesses


                                    If choice of target and proposition is different from that
•   Strategy Uniqueness             of major competitors



•   Anticipation of market change   If changes in the external microenvironment and
                                    macroenvironment are identified and their implications
                                    allowed for




                                                                                                 Page 26
Listen to how customers talk about category need

Customer View                   Supplier View
Advice
• cutting costs                 • fast PAD family
• future technology direction   • multimedia FRADs
Help                            • PIX firewall
• design & configuration
• process engineering           • Solutions
• electron commerce             • Gigabit Ethernet
Run                             • solutions
• international network
• disaster recovery             • high performance
                                • LAN support




                                                       Page 27
Understand the different category buyers
                               Business

                     Business
                    perfectionist          Save my
                                            budget

            Radical thinkers
                                     Business
                   Profit engineer    general
 “Reward”                                              “Relief”
                        Radical              Save my
                       architect              career


              Technical              Conservative
               idealist               technocrat


                               Technical

                                                            Page 28
This is a friend I know…



                   … she is a busy young lady
                   … she looks after her health and loves fresh
                   produce
                   … she drives to the supermarket on a Saturday
                   morning
                   … she reads Hello Magazine
                   … she has a cat
                   … she doesn‟t pay attention to the price of products
                   … she does look out for promotions




I know 12m people in the UK as well as I know
Miss Jones
                                                           Page 29
STRENGTHS    WEAKNESSES




OPPORTUNITIES   THREATS




                             Page 30
Strategic marketing planning exercise – SWOT analysis
                1. SEGMENT DESCRIPTION            2. CRITICAL SUCCESS      3. WEIGHTING       4. STRENGTHS / WEAKNESSES
                It should be a specific part of      FACTORS               (How important     ANALYSIS
                the business and should be        In other words, how do   is each of these   How would your customers score you and
                very important to the             customers choose?        CSFs? Score        each of your main competitors out of 10 on
                organisation                                               out of 100)        each of the CSFs?
                                                                                              Multiply the score by the weight.

                                                  1                                                You   Comp A Comp B Comp C Comp D
                                                  2                                            1
                                                  3                                            2
                                                  4                                            3
                                                  5                                            4
         5. OPPORTUNITIES / THREATS                                          Total 100         5
         What are the few things outside your
         direct control that have had, and will
         have, an impact on this part of your
         business?                                      THREATS
OPPORTUNITIES




                1
                2
                3
                4
                5
           6. KEY ISSUES THAT NEED
              TO BE ADDRESSED
           What are the really key issues
           from the SWOT that need to
           be addressed?
                                                                                                                         Page 31
Market map – office equipment

                                     Direct                                 47%     24%
                                                   Type A       5%    3%
                                   Field Sales
                                                 Dealer Chain
                                                    Type A      7%    3%
                                                 Independent
                                                   Type B       0%    1%
                                                 Dealer Chain
                                                    Type B      1%    8%
                                                 Independent
                                                   Type C       15%   9%
                                                 Dealer Chain
  Manufacturers                                                                   Final Users
                                                    Type C      7%    18%
                                                 Independent
                                                                5%    4%
                                                    VARs

                                                   Buying       7%    10%
 Final Users Route to Market                      Consortia
                                                                4%    10%
                                                    Retail
 Company’s Route to Market
                                                   Direct       0%    4%
 Extracted from the complete map
                                                  Response
                                                                0%    6%
                                                    Other
                                                                                          Page 32
Shareholder Value Risk Profile
•   Profit Pool                  The marketing strategy has a higher
                                 probability of success if the targeted profit
                                 pool is high and growing

                                 If the source of new business is growth in
•   Profit Sources               the existing profit pool



•   Competitor Impact            If the profit impact on competitors is
                                 small and distributed


•   Internal Gross Margin        If the internal gross margin assumptions
                                 are conservative relative to current
    Assumptions                  products

•   Assumptions of Other Costs   If assumptions regarding other costs,
                                 including marketing support, are higher
                                 than existing costs




                                                                            Page 33
Setting expectations of performance
         P                                        P

  high              Supplier business                  high/
                                                      medium
                       strength with
                    High customer    Low
   C          G                               C         G
             High
                     Strategic      Star

                     Strategic    Selective
Mkt/Segment         investment   investment
attractiveness
                      Status     Streamline
         P                                        P

medium               Pro-active Manage for             low
                          -
                    maintenance   cash
             Low


   C           G                              C         G

                                                         Page 34
Market attractiveness evaluation
                Factor                         Scoring Criteria
                                           10-7         6-4            3-0             Score         Weighting          Ranking
 1.    Market Size (£ millions) > €250                  €51-250        < €50               5               15              0.75


 2.    Volume Growth (Units) > 10%                      5-9%           < 5%               10               40               4.0


 3.    Industry Profitability           > 15%           10-15%          < 10%              8               35               2.8


 4.    Competitive Intensity               Low          Medium         High                6               10               0.6



                                                                                                         Total             8.15



This form illustrates a quantitative approach to evaluating market attractiveness. Each factor is scored, then multiplied by the
percentage weighting and totalled for the overall score. In this example, an overall score of 8.5 out of 10 places this market in the
highly attractive category.


                                                                                                                    Page 35
Profit Risk

•   Profit Risk
     – The probability that your marketing strategy will create
       the anticipated value even if you win the anticipated
       market share from the predicted market size

•   Begins by explaining the sources of the growth in value generation

•   There are five Profit Risk factors
     – Taken from many years of research and incorporating the
       ideas of game theory based strategy development
     – 5 characteristics that differentiate low risk strategies
       from high risk ones



                                                                         Page 36
Profit Risk




                                 Internal      Other
Profit    Profit   Competitor
                                  gross         cost
pool     sources     impact
                                  margin    assumptions
 risk      risk       risk
                                   risk         risk




                                                Page 37
The components of Profit Risk

• Profit pool risk
   – The marketing strategy has a higher probability of
     achieving its aims if the targeted profit pool is
     large and growing and the marketing strategy’s
     objectives only require a small share of this pool.
   – In such cases, these objectives will not have
     dramatically negative impacts on existing or
     potential competitors. Hence the probability of
     aggressive competitor reaction is much lower.



                                                           Page 38
The components of Profit Risk


• Sources of profit growth risk
   – Marketing strategies have a higher probability of achieving
     their aims if the source of profit growth is primarily from
     growth in the total profit pool.
   – Where profit growth comes totally from such overall growth
     in the profit pool, this means that no competitor actually
     loses existing profits as a direct result of this marketing
     strategy. Once again therefore the probability of competitor
     reaction is reduced.




                                                                    Page 39
The components of Profit Risk

• Competitor impact risk

   – The marketing strategy has a higher probability of
     success if any adverse profit impact on
     competitors is small and evenly distributed.
   – The worst case is where the potential impact of
     the marketing strategy actually threatens the
     continued existence of a specific competitor. This
     competitor may well cease to behave in an
     economically rational way as it fights for survival.
     This can seriously damage the total profit pool of
     the market segment or complete industry.



                                                            Page 40
The components of Profit Risk

• Internal gross margin assumptions risk

    – Probabilities of success are increased if gross margin
      assumptions in the marketing strategy are conservatively
      based on existing, or otherwise provable, levels.
    – This risk tends to be critical when the marketing strategy is
      based on either ‘new’ products or on selling existing
      products into a new market segment where pricing and
      comparative cost information is not readily available.




                                                                      Page 41
The components of Profit Risk

• Other cost assumptions risk

    – Probabilities of success are increased if other cost
      assumptions are conservatively based on existing
      levels.
    – The most common source of error in this area is the
      assessment of ongoing marketing support that will be
      needed to maintain the sales revenues that are
      predicted in the marketing strategy. Often high levels
      of launch marketing are included but these decline
      rapidly even where high levels of competitor response
      should be expected.



                                                               Page 42
What do most marketing strategies look like in this
                                       area?

1. They do not quantify the total profit pool

2. They do not specifically identify sources of profit growth

3. They do not quantify the impact on key competitors

4. They often assume higher levels of gross margin in the future

5. They frequently include significant improvements in other cost levels, even though the
   plans may require new product developments and launches




                                                                             Page 43
Market segment objectives:
                Directional Policy Matrix
                                                                          Analysis process
                 Relative company competitiveness                  •Attractiveness of each segment
                                                                               (ranked)
                  High                          Low
                                                                •Projected net free cash flow (3/5yrs) -
                                                                           for each segment
        High
                   Strategic                                    •Key risk factors influencing cash flows
                                          Selectively
                    invest/                 invest                •Risk assessment for each segment
                     build
  Segment
attractiveness                                                   •Risk adjusted future cash flows per
                   Pro-actively                                               segment
                    maintain            Manage for
                                          cash                   •Deduct risk-adjusted cash flows from
                       No                                             the capital x cost of capital
                     change                                                for each segment
        Low
                                                                •Aggregated positive net present value
          Present position        Forecast position in 3 yrs

                                                                         Strategies to
      Critical success factors                                      increase present value
                                                                  •Increase future cash flows
                                                                   •Cash flow happens earlier
                                                               •Reducing the risk in the cash flows
                                                                                          Page 44
Map of the marketing domain
                   Define markets       Strategic zone
                    & understand         where metrics
                                        are defined
                        value           (Level 1)




                      Asset         Determine
       Monitor
                      Base             value
        value
                                    Proposition



Measurement zone
where metrics
are applied           Deliver
(Levels 2 & 3)         value

                                                    Page 45
Overall Marketing Metrics Model
                                         Lead indicators            Lag indicators
               Resource                                                           Forecast/
Intention/                        Plan/          Strategy/         Objectives/
               allocation/                                                        profit
actuality                         action         achievement       results
               spend
                                                  PFs
               budget          actions, esp.                       product        corporate
Business       funds &                                                            performance
                               marketing                           market
element        time                                                segment
                                                  HFs
                              £   what   who

                              £   what   who                           ms%          corporate
               budget                                                 sales£           rev£
                              £   what   who      CSFs
                                                                      profit£         profit£
                              £   what   who



Measure-       application      costs,           metrics on        performance    turnover,
ment           of spend         activity         achievement       by product     profit &
                                milestones       of factor to      market         shareholder
                                & outputs        required level    segment        value
Positioning
of issues in
the model                    Cost to achieve     Required by          Market growth
                             Responsibilities    customers. Customer acquisition/ retention/
                                                  Relative to uptrading/ X-selling/ regained
                                                 competitors      Product/customer mix
                                                                  Channel performance
Marketing Metrics Model

  Business
  element
 Corporate      Market              Impact           Marketing &       Budget
performance    segments             factors         other actions     resource

              Segment
               needs
                Segment
                attributes         Productivi            Other
                                   ty factors           actions
                                     Qualifyin          Marketing
                                     g factors           actions
Corporate                            Competitive                       Budget
                                      advantage
 Revenue                               factors
  Profit         Segment                                                Funds
                outcomes:                                               Time
                 sales, GM,
                     MS




Forecast/     Objectives/           Strategy/           Plan/       Resource
results       outcomes              response            action      allocation/
                                                                    spend
 Future/
 actuality

                                                                     Page 47
Map of the marketing domain
                   Define markets       Strategic zone
                    & understand         where metrics
                                        are defined
                        value           (Level 1)




                      Asset         Determine
       Monitor
                      Base             value
        value
                                    Proposition



Measurement zone
where metrics
are applied           Deliver
(Levels 2 & 3)         value

                                                    Page 48
Expenditures to develop marketing assets make
sense if the sum of the discounted cash flows they
               generate is positive.




                                                 Page 49
Projected cash              DCF and NPV
                                  flows from                  methods
                                  investing in a              implicitly make
                                  promotion        A          this comparison


                                                                            B
                                                             Companies
                                                             should be            Assumed cash
                                                C            making this          flow resulting
                                                             comparison           from doing
                                         More likely                              nothing
                                         cash flow
                                         resulting from
                                         doing nothing

Note: Most executives compare the cash flow from
promotion against the default scenario of doing nothing
assuming, incorrectly, that the present health of the
company will persist indefinitely if the investment is not
made. For a better assessment of the promotion’s value,
the comparison should be between the projected
discounted cash flow and the more likely scenario of a
decline in performance in the absence of promotional                               Figure 10
investment.


                       Adapted from Christensen CM et al, ( 2008 )


                                                                                                     2 + 2      + 2     + 2      = £-0.6 million
                                                                           £ - 7 million +         (1+r) (1+r)²  (1+r)³ (1+r)4



                                                                                £ - 1 million +      2 + 2      + 2     + 2      = £5.4 million
                                                                                                   (1+r) (1+r)²  (1+r)³ (1+r)4




                                                                                                                                          Page 50
Over 40 years of research into the link between long run financial success and
              excellent marketing strategies reveal the following:


Excellent Strategies                        Weak Strategies
• Define markets in terms of needs          • Define markets in terms of
• Target needs based segments                 products
• Make a specific offer to each             • Target product categories
   segment                                  • Make similar offers to all segments
• Leverage their strengths and              • Have little understanding of their
   minimise their weaknesses                  strengths and weaknesses
• Anticipate the future                     • Plan using historical data
• Spell out the financial effectiveness     • Make unjustified forecasts of
   of marketing expenditure                   revenue and profits




                                                                            Page 51
Key Elements of World Class Marketing

1.    A deep understanding of the market place
2.    Correct needs-based segmentation and prioritisation
3.    Segment-specific propositions
4.    Powerful differentiation, positioning and branding
5.    Effective strategic marketing planning processes
6.    Long-term integrated marketing strategies
7.    A deep understanding of the needs of major customers
8.    Market/customer-driven organisation structures
9.    Professionally-qualified marketing people
10.   Institutionalised creativity and innovation




                                                             Page 52
APPENDIX 1




             Page 53
Valuing Key Market Segments
Background/Facts

 Risk and return are positively correlated, ie. as risk increases, investors require a
higher return.
 Risk is measured by the volatility in returns, ie. high risk is the likelihood of either
making a very good return or losing all your money. This can be described as the
quality of returns.
 All assets are defined as having future value to the organisation. Hence assets
  to be valued include not only tangible assets like plant and machinery, but intangible
  assets, such as Key Market Segments.
 The present value of future cash flows is the most acceptable method to
  value assets including key market segments.
 The present value is increased by:
- increasing the future cash flows
- making the future cash flows „happen‟ earlier
- reducing the risk in these cash flows, ie. improving the certainty of these cash flows,
and, hence, reducing the required rate of return.


                                                                                 Page 54
Suggested Approach
 Identify your key market segments. It is helpful if they can be classified on a vertical axis (a kind of
 thermometer) according to their attractiveness to your company. „Attractiveness‟ usually means the
 potential of each for growth in your profits over a period of between 3 and 5 years. (See the attached
 matrix)

 Based on your current experience and planning horizon that you are confident with, make a projection of
 future net free cash in-flows from your segments. It is normal to select a period such as 3 or 5 years.

 These calculations will consist of three parts:
        revenue forecasts for each year;
        cost forecasts for each year;
        net free cash flow for each segment for each year.

 Identify the key factors that are likely to either increase or decrease these future cash flows.

 These factors are likely to be assessed according to the following factors:
         the riskiness of the product/market segment relative to its position on the ANSOFF matrix;
         the riskiness of the marketing strategies to achieve the revenue and market share;
         the riskiness of the forecast profitability (e.g. the cost forecast accuracy ).

 Now recalculate the revenues, costs and net free cash flows for each year, having adjusted the figures
 using the risks (probabilities) from the above.

 Ask your accountant to provide you with the overall SBU cost of capital and capital used in the SBU. This
will not consist only of tangible assets. Thus, £1,000,000 capital at a required shareholder rate of return of
10% would give £100,000 as the minimum return necessary.

 Deduct the proportional cost of capital from the free cash flow for each segment for each year.

 An aggregate positive net present value indicates that you are creating shareholder value – ie.
 achieving overall returns greater than the weighted average cost of capital, having taken
 into account the risk associated with future cash flows.

                                                                                                                 Page 55
Portfolio analysis - directional policy matrix (DPM)
                       Relative company competitiveness
                           High                  Low



        High
                                                 ?
                         Invest/
                          build
   Segment                                                             NB. Suggested
                                                                       time period -
attractiveness                                                         3 years
                         Maintain
                                            Manage for
         Low                 No               cash
                           change




                 Present position       Forecast position in 3 years

                                                                               Page 56
APPENDIX 2




             Page 57
The Contents of a Strategic Marketing Plan (<20 pages)
• Mission or Purpose Statement
                                                                     Products
• Financial Summary
                                                            Existing                New




                                                 Existing
                                                                 1              2




                                       Markets
 Revenue




                                                 New
    Profit                                                       3              4

             t.0   T+1    T+2    T+3




                                                                                          Page 58
Key (revenue and profit growth)

• from productivity
     • by product for market for existing products from existing markets
• from new products in existing markets
• from existing products in new markets
• from new products in new markets

Plus a few words of commentary

Market Overview/Summary
     Market definition
     Market map showing vol/rev flows from supplier through to
          end user, with major decision points highlighted
     Where appropriate, provide a future market map
     Include commentary/conclusions/implications for the company
     At major decision points, include key segments




                                                                           Page 59
SWOT Analyses on Key Segments
  • include pictorial representations of the SWOTs, such as bar charts
  • highlight major conclusions/issues to be addressed

Portfolio Summaries of the SWOTs
  • include Directional Policy Matrix (DPM) summaries of:-
            - the attractiveness of the segments over the next 3-5 years
            - the current relative competitive position of your company in
              each segment
            - the planned competitive position of each segment over the
              next 3-5 years

Marketing Objectives and Strategies for the next 3-5 years
   • include objectives (volume, value, market share, profit, as appropriate)
     for the next 3-5 years for each segment as represented by the planned
     position of each circle on the DPM
   • include strategies (the 4XPs) with costs for each objective

Consolidated Budget for the next 3-5 years
   • this will be a consolidation of all the revenues, costs and profits for
     the next 3-5 years and should accord with the financial summary
     provided earlier




                                                                                Page 60
APPENDIX 3




             Page 61
Are you getting these essential deliverables from your
              strategic marketing plan?
Score out of 10
Market structure and segmentation
• Is there a clear and unambiguous definition of the market we are interested in
    serving?
• Is it clearly mapped, showing product/service flows, volumes/values in total,
    our shares and critical conclusions for our organisation?
• Are the segments clearly described and quantified? These must be groups of
    customers with the same or similar needs, not sectors.
• Are the real needs of these segments properly quantified with the relative
    importance of these needs clearly identified?
Differentiation
• Is there a clear and quantified analysis of how well our company satisfies
    these needs compared to competitors?
• Are the opportunities and threats clearly identified by segment?

                                                                        Page 62
Score out of 10
Scope
· Are all the segments classified according to their relative potential for growth
  in profits over the next three years and according to our company’s relative
  competitive position in each?
· Are the objectives consistent with their position in the portfolio? (volume,
  value, market share, profit)
· Are the strategies (including products, services and solutions) consistent with
  the objectives?
· Are the measurement metrics proposed relevant to the objectives and
  strategies?
· Are the key issues for action for all departments clearly spelled out as key
  issues to be addressed?

Value capture
· Do the objectives and strategies add up to the profit goals required by our
  company?
· Does the budget follow on logically and clearly from all the above,
  or is it merely an add on?


                                                                           Page 63
Marketing Plans 7e




                     Page 64
Take marketing into the boardroom,
                                 and connect marketing strategy to
                                         shareholder value




                 Available to order now from…
www.malcolm-mcdonald.com – insert offer code ATZ6 into the basket
         and receive 10% off plus free post and packing!
                                                                 Page 65
Page 66
m.mcdonald@cranfield.ac.uk
           www.malcolm-mcdonald.com
Prof. Malcolm McDonald free videos and downloads
             @www.oxlearn.com

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Mc donald english_29th

  • 1. The only sustainable future for marketing - professionalism and accountability by Professor Malcolm McDonald Plekhanov University of Economics 29th January 2013 This presentation is the copyright of Professor Malcolm McDonald
  • 2. Agenda • What goes wrong without excellent marketing • The uselessness of Profit and Loss Accounts and Balance Sheets • In order to become the drivers of corporate strategy, marketers must become more professional and more accountable financially Page 2
  • 3. Inter Tech’s 5 year performance Performance (£million) Base Year 1 2 3 4 5 Sales Revenue £254 £293 £318 £387 £431 £454 - Cost of goods sold 135 152 167 201 224 236 Gross Contribution £119 £141 £151 £186 £207 £218 - Manufacturing overhead 48 58 63 82 90 95 - Marketing & Sales 18 23 24 26 27 28 - Research & Development 22 23 23 25 24 24 Net Profit £16 £22 £26 £37 £50 £55 Return on Sales (%) 6.3% 7.5% 8.2% 9.6% 11.6% 12.1% Assets £141 £162 £167 £194 £205 £206 Assets (% of sales) 56% 55% 53% 50% 48% 45% Return on Assets (%) 11.3% 13.5% 15.6% 19.1% 24.4% 26.7% Page 3
  • 4. Why Market Growth Rates Are Important InterTech’s 5 Year Market-Based Performance Performance (£million) Base Year 1 2 3 4 5 Market Growth 18.3% 23.4% 17.6% 34.4% 24.0% 17.9% InterTech Sales Growth (%) 12.8% 17.4% 11.2% 27.1% 16.5% 10.9% Market Share(%) 20.3% 19.1% 18.4% 17.1% 16.3% 14.9% Customer Retention (%) 88.2% 87.1% 85.0% 82.2% 80.9% 80.0% New Customers (%) 11.7% 12.9% 14.9% 24.1% 22.5% 29.2% % Dissatisfied Customers 13.6% 14.3% 16.1% 17.3% 18.9% 19.6% Relative Product Quality +10% +8% +5% +3% +1% 0% Relative Service Quality +0% +0% -20% -3% -5% -8% Relative New Product Sales +8% +8% +7% +5% +1% -4% Page 4
  • 5. Measurement of segment profitability Total Segment Segment Segment Segment Segment Segment Market 1 2 3 4 5 6 Percentage of market 100.0 14.8 9.5 27.1 18.8 18.8 11.0 represented by segment Percentage of all profits in 100.0 7.1 4.9 14.7 21.8 28.5 23.0 total market produced by segment Ratio of profit produced by 1.00 0.48 0.52 0.54 1.16 1.52 2.09 segment to weight of segment in total population Defection rate 23% 20% 17% 15% 28% 30% 35% Page 5
  • 6. Balance sheet Assets Liabilities - Land - Shares - Buildings - Loans - Plant - Overdrafts - Vehicles etc. etc. £100 million £100 million Page 6
  • 7. Balance sheet Assets Liabilities - Land - Shares - Buildings - Loans - Plant - Overdrafts - Vehicles etc. etc. £100 million £900 million Page 7
  • 8. Balance sheet Assets Liabilities - Land - Shares - Buildings - Loans - Plant - Overdrafts - Vehicles etc. Goodwill £800m £900 million £900 million Page 8
  • 9. Intangibles P and G have paid £31 billion for Gillette, but have bought only £4 billion of tangible assets - Gillette brand £ 4.0 billion - Duracell brand £ 2.5 billion - Oral B £ 2.0 billion - Braun £ 1.5 billion - Retail and supplier network £10.0 billion - Gillette innovative capability £ 7.0 billion TOTAL £27.0 billion (David Haigh, Brand Finance, Marketing Magazine, 1st April 2005) Page 9
  • 10. Brands Increasingly Drive Business Results Brands affect business value by influencing the behaviour of a wide range of Shell’s stakeholders, some of which directly impact Shell’s P&L (and hence value) STAKEHOLDER STAKEHOLDER FINANCIAL SHAREHOLDER PERCEPTION BEHAVIOUR IMPACT VALUE • Pay price premium Customers Revenues - individuals, • Buy more businesses Suppliers / • Lower prices Partners • Better terms Costs Brand - businesses, • Willingness to partner Revenues Trademarks energy asset owners •(more opportunities) Employees • Better retention - current and potential Costs • Lower salary expectations Reputation Shareholders / Productivity • Better qualified candidates Bankers - individual and institutional • Higher PE ratio Indirect Other • Lower volatility Costs influence Stakeholders Influences on value • Lower borrowing costs Risk business and - government, media, opinion formers, • Better repayment conditions brand value academics, public, environmentalists Page 10
  • 11. Asset Breakdown for the top 10 countries by Enterprise Value (US$ millions, 2011) Page 11
  • 12. The historic rift between marketers and the finance department, caused by marketing’s reluctance to be accountable for what they do, is as marked as ever Tense relations between CFOs and Marketers are “Marketers have constantly hidden dividing boardrooms over behind a fog of measures that are the value of marketing. based purely on tactical marketing One in three CFOs said activity, rather than solid financial they did not believe metrics that are relevant to the City”. marketing to be crucial in determining strategy. “Marketing in 3D” Deloitte Page 12
  • 13. The Cultural Web (What senior non marketers believe about marketers) Symbols • Cars • Offices Stories • Terminology Power and Myths • Statistics Structures • Mud doesn‟t stick • Lunch • Golden child • Research withheld • Quick promotion • Take credit for • No loyalty others work • Churn Paradigm • Jargon • Costs • Experience • Unaccountable • Untouchable Rituals • Expensive • Slippery Organisational • Planning Structures • Delegating • Lack of structure • Deadlines • Internal focus Control • Off site • Always in Systems meetings meetings • 10.00-16.00 hrs • Lunch • Travel • Soft measurement • For self Source: „Defining a Marketing Paradigm‟ (Baker, S. 2000) Page 13
  • 14. The purpose of strategic marketing The overall purpose of strategic marketing, and its principal focus is the identification and creation of sustainable competitive advantage. Page 14
  • 15. Definition of marketing Marketing is a process for: • defining markets • quantifying the needs of the customer groups (segments) within these markets • putting together the value propositions to meet these needs, communicating these value propositions to all those people in the organisation responsible for delivering them and getting their buy-in to their role • playing an appropriate part in delivering these value propositions (usually only communications) • monitoring the value actually delivered. For this process to be effective, organisations need to be consumer/ customer-driven Page 15
  • 16. Map of the marketing domain Define markets & understand value Asset Determine Monitor Base value value Proposition Deliver value Page 16
  • 17. In capital markets, success is measured in terms of shareholder value added, having taken account of the risks associated with future strategies, the time value of money and the cost of capital. 17
  • 18. Financial Risk and Return High 1 Return 2 3 Low Low High Risk Adapted from Professor Keith Ward, Cranfield School of Management Page 18
  • 19. The route to Sustainable Competitive Advantage (SCA) Differentiation High Price Sales Revenue High Volume Economies Low Business Lower of Scale Risk Positive Operations SCA Costs Learning Low Financial NPV Curve Risk Gearing Interest Cover High Cash Financial Working Capital Ratio Flows Operational Leverage Page 19
  • 20. Map of the marketing domain Define markets Strategic zone & understand where metrics are defined value (Level 1) Asset Determine Monitor Base value value Proposition Measurement zone where metrics are applied Deliver (Levels 2 & 3) value Page Page 20 20
  • 21. What is Marketing Due Diligence? Marketing Due Diligence Risk Assessment Market Risk: Strategy risk: Implementation risk: Is the market Will we get our Will we get our there? planned share? planned profit? Page 21
  • 22. Sensitivity to business risk Marketing Due Diligence Risk Assessment Low market share High market share Low competitive intensity High competitive intensity High margins Low margins Low growth intent High growth intent Low growth intent High growth intent Low growth intent High growth intent market risk MarketHighly sensitive Moderately sensitive to Risk: to market risk Share risk: share risk to Moderately sensitive to share risk Highly sensitive Profit risk: Moderately sensitive to Highly sensitive to profit risk profit risk Is the market Will we get our Will we get our there? planned share? planned profit? Low sensitivity to Moderately sensitive to Low sensitivity to Moderately sensitive to market risk market risk Low sensitivity to Moderately sensitive to share risk share risk profit risk profit risk Sensitivity to each source of risk is dependent on the source of growth, current share and planned margins Page 22
  • 23. Market Risk Profile • Product Category Existence The marketing strategy has a higher probability of success if the product category is well established • Segment Existence If the target segment is well established If the sales volumes are well supported by • Sales Volumes evidence If the forecast growth is in line with • Forecast Growth historical trends If the pricing levels are conservative relative • Pricing Assumptions to current pricing levels Page 23
  • 24. Ansoff matrix PRODUCTS increasing technological Present newness New Present Market Product Penetration Development MARKETS increasing market newness Market New Diversification Extension Page 24
  • 25. Gap analysis summary Profit improvement Productivity improvement Sales growth Existing assets Change Market Market Product asset base penetration development development Improve Cost Improve Asset Increase reduction Product/ Take New Convert Existing New Utilisation Increase Price/ competitors’ segments Non-users markets markets Customer usage (eg more/ Reduce mix customers better discounts sales calls) Cash and margin focus Growth focus Investment Divestment •Acquisition Redevelopment •Joint ventures of capital resources •etc Capital Utilisation focus Page 25
  • 26. Market Share Risk Profile • Target Market Definition The marketing strategy has a higher probability of success if the target is defined in terms of homogeneous segments and is characterised by utilisable data If the proposition delivered to each segment is different • Proposition Specification from that delivered to other segments and addresses the needs which characterised the target segment If the strengths and weaknesses of the organisation are • SWOT Alignment independently assessed and the choice of target and proposition leverages strengths and minimises weaknesses If choice of target and proposition is different from that • Strategy Uniqueness of major competitors • Anticipation of market change If changes in the external microenvironment and macroenvironment are identified and their implications allowed for Page 26
  • 27. Listen to how customers talk about category need Customer View Supplier View Advice • cutting costs • fast PAD family • future technology direction • multimedia FRADs Help • PIX firewall • design & configuration • process engineering • Solutions • electron commerce • Gigabit Ethernet Run • solutions • international network • disaster recovery • high performance • LAN support Page 27
  • 28. Understand the different category buyers Business Business perfectionist Save my budget Radical thinkers Business Profit engineer general “Reward” “Relief” Radical Save my architect career Technical Conservative idealist technocrat Technical Page 28
  • 29. This is a friend I know… … she is a busy young lady … she looks after her health and loves fresh produce … she drives to the supermarket on a Saturday morning … she reads Hello Magazine … she has a cat … she doesn‟t pay attention to the price of products … she does look out for promotions I know 12m people in the UK as well as I know Miss Jones Page 29
  • 30. STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES OPPORTUNITIES THREATS Page 30
  • 31. Strategic marketing planning exercise – SWOT analysis 1. SEGMENT DESCRIPTION 2. CRITICAL SUCCESS 3. WEIGHTING 4. STRENGTHS / WEAKNESSES It should be a specific part of FACTORS (How important ANALYSIS the business and should be In other words, how do is each of these How would your customers score you and very important to the customers choose? CSFs? Score each of your main competitors out of 10 on organisation out of 100) each of the CSFs? Multiply the score by the weight. 1 You Comp A Comp B Comp C Comp D 2 1 3 2 4 3 5 4 5. OPPORTUNITIES / THREATS Total 100 5 What are the few things outside your direct control that have had, and will have, an impact on this part of your business? THREATS OPPORTUNITIES 1 2 3 4 5 6. KEY ISSUES THAT NEED TO BE ADDRESSED What are the really key issues from the SWOT that need to be addressed? Page 31
  • 32. Market map – office equipment Direct 47% 24% Type A 5% 3% Field Sales Dealer Chain Type A 7% 3% Independent Type B 0% 1% Dealer Chain Type B 1% 8% Independent Type C 15% 9% Dealer Chain Manufacturers Final Users Type C 7% 18% Independent 5% 4% VARs Buying 7% 10% Final Users Route to Market Consortia 4% 10% Retail Company’s Route to Market Direct 0% 4% Extracted from the complete map Response 0% 6% Other Page 32
  • 33. Shareholder Value Risk Profile • Profit Pool The marketing strategy has a higher probability of success if the targeted profit pool is high and growing If the source of new business is growth in • Profit Sources the existing profit pool • Competitor Impact If the profit impact on competitors is small and distributed • Internal Gross Margin If the internal gross margin assumptions are conservative relative to current Assumptions products • Assumptions of Other Costs If assumptions regarding other costs, including marketing support, are higher than existing costs Page 33
  • 34. Setting expectations of performance P P high Supplier business high/ medium strength with High customer Low C G C G High Strategic Star Strategic Selective Mkt/Segment investment investment attractiveness Status Streamline P P medium Pro-active Manage for low - maintenance cash Low C G C G Page 34
  • 35. Market attractiveness evaluation Factor Scoring Criteria 10-7 6-4 3-0 Score Weighting Ranking 1. Market Size (£ millions) > €250 €51-250 < €50 5 15 0.75 2. Volume Growth (Units) > 10% 5-9% < 5% 10 40 4.0 3. Industry Profitability > 15% 10-15% < 10% 8 35 2.8 4. Competitive Intensity Low Medium High 6 10 0.6 Total 8.15 This form illustrates a quantitative approach to evaluating market attractiveness. Each factor is scored, then multiplied by the percentage weighting and totalled for the overall score. In this example, an overall score of 8.5 out of 10 places this market in the highly attractive category. Page 35
  • 36. Profit Risk • Profit Risk – The probability that your marketing strategy will create the anticipated value even if you win the anticipated market share from the predicted market size • Begins by explaining the sources of the growth in value generation • There are five Profit Risk factors – Taken from many years of research and incorporating the ideas of game theory based strategy development – 5 characteristics that differentiate low risk strategies from high risk ones Page 36
  • 37. Profit Risk Internal Other Profit Profit Competitor gross cost pool sources impact margin assumptions risk risk risk risk risk Page 37
  • 38. The components of Profit Risk • Profit pool risk – The marketing strategy has a higher probability of achieving its aims if the targeted profit pool is large and growing and the marketing strategy’s objectives only require a small share of this pool. – In such cases, these objectives will not have dramatically negative impacts on existing or potential competitors. Hence the probability of aggressive competitor reaction is much lower. Page 38
  • 39. The components of Profit Risk • Sources of profit growth risk – Marketing strategies have a higher probability of achieving their aims if the source of profit growth is primarily from growth in the total profit pool. – Where profit growth comes totally from such overall growth in the profit pool, this means that no competitor actually loses existing profits as a direct result of this marketing strategy. Once again therefore the probability of competitor reaction is reduced. Page 39
  • 40. The components of Profit Risk • Competitor impact risk – The marketing strategy has a higher probability of success if any adverse profit impact on competitors is small and evenly distributed. – The worst case is where the potential impact of the marketing strategy actually threatens the continued existence of a specific competitor. This competitor may well cease to behave in an economically rational way as it fights for survival. This can seriously damage the total profit pool of the market segment or complete industry. Page 40
  • 41. The components of Profit Risk • Internal gross margin assumptions risk – Probabilities of success are increased if gross margin assumptions in the marketing strategy are conservatively based on existing, or otherwise provable, levels. – This risk tends to be critical when the marketing strategy is based on either ‘new’ products or on selling existing products into a new market segment where pricing and comparative cost information is not readily available. Page 41
  • 42. The components of Profit Risk • Other cost assumptions risk – Probabilities of success are increased if other cost assumptions are conservatively based on existing levels. – The most common source of error in this area is the assessment of ongoing marketing support that will be needed to maintain the sales revenues that are predicted in the marketing strategy. Often high levels of launch marketing are included but these decline rapidly even where high levels of competitor response should be expected. Page 42
  • 43. What do most marketing strategies look like in this area? 1. They do not quantify the total profit pool 2. They do not specifically identify sources of profit growth 3. They do not quantify the impact on key competitors 4. They often assume higher levels of gross margin in the future 5. They frequently include significant improvements in other cost levels, even though the plans may require new product developments and launches Page 43
  • 44. Market segment objectives: Directional Policy Matrix Analysis process Relative company competitiveness •Attractiveness of each segment (ranked) High Low •Projected net free cash flow (3/5yrs) - for each segment High Strategic •Key risk factors influencing cash flows Selectively invest/ invest •Risk assessment for each segment build Segment attractiveness •Risk adjusted future cash flows per Pro-actively segment maintain Manage for cash •Deduct risk-adjusted cash flows from No the capital x cost of capital change for each segment Low •Aggregated positive net present value Present position Forecast position in 3 yrs Strategies to Critical success factors increase present value •Increase future cash flows •Cash flow happens earlier •Reducing the risk in the cash flows Page 44
  • 45. Map of the marketing domain Define markets Strategic zone & understand where metrics are defined value (Level 1) Asset Determine Monitor Base value value Proposition Measurement zone where metrics are applied Deliver (Levels 2 & 3) value Page 45
  • 46. Overall Marketing Metrics Model Lead indicators Lag indicators Resource Forecast/ Intention/ Plan/ Strategy/ Objectives/ allocation/ profit actuality action achievement results spend PFs budget actions, esp. product corporate Business funds & performance marketing market element time segment HFs £ what who £ what who ms% corporate budget sales£ rev£ £ what who CSFs profit£ profit£ £ what who Measure- application costs, metrics on performance turnover, ment of spend activity achievement by product profit & milestones of factor to market shareholder & outputs required level segment value Positioning of issues in the model Cost to achieve Required by Market growth Responsibilities customers. Customer acquisition/ retention/ Relative to uptrading/ X-selling/ regained competitors Product/customer mix Channel performance
  • 47. Marketing Metrics Model Business element Corporate Market Impact Marketing & Budget performance segments factors other actions resource Segment needs Segment attributes Productivi Other ty factors actions Qualifyin Marketing g factors actions Corporate Competitive Budget advantage Revenue factors Profit Segment Funds outcomes: Time sales, GM, MS Forecast/ Objectives/ Strategy/ Plan/ Resource results outcomes response action allocation/ spend Future/ actuality Page 47
  • 48. Map of the marketing domain Define markets Strategic zone & understand where metrics are defined value (Level 1) Asset Determine Monitor Base value value Proposition Measurement zone where metrics are applied Deliver (Levels 2 & 3) value Page 48
  • 49. Expenditures to develop marketing assets make sense if the sum of the discounted cash flows they generate is positive. Page 49
  • 50. Projected cash DCF and NPV flows from methods investing in a implicitly make promotion A this comparison B Companies should be Assumed cash C making this flow resulting comparison from doing More likely nothing cash flow resulting from doing nothing Note: Most executives compare the cash flow from promotion against the default scenario of doing nothing assuming, incorrectly, that the present health of the company will persist indefinitely if the investment is not made. For a better assessment of the promotion’s value, the comparison should be between the projected discounted cash flow and the more likely scenario of a decline in performance in the absence of promotional Figure 10 investment. Adapted from Christensen CM et al, ( 2008 ) 2 + 2 + 2 + 2 = £-0.6 million £ - 7 million + (1+r) (1+r)² (1+r)³ (1+r)4 £ - 1 million + 2 + 2 + 2 + 2 = £5.4 million (1+r) (1+r)² (1+r)³ (1+r)4 Page 50
  • 51. Over 40 years of research into the link between long run financial success and excellent marketing strategies reveal the following: Excellent Strategies Weak Strategies • Define markets in terms of needs • Define markets in terms of • Target needs based segments products • Make a specific offer to each • Target product categories segment • Make similar offers to all segments • Leverage their strengths and • Have little understanding of their minimise their weaknesses strengths and weaknesses • Anticipate the future • Plan using historical data • Spell out the financial effectiveness • Make unjustified forecasts of of marketing expenditure revenue and profits Page 51
  • 52. Key Elements of World Class Marketing 1. A deep understanding of the market place 2. Correct needs-based segmentation and prioritisation 3. Segment-specific propositions 4. Powerful differentiation, positioning and branding 5. Effective strategic marketing planning processes 6. Long-term integrated marketing strategies 7. A deep understanding of the needs of major customers 8. Market/customer-driven organisation structures 9. Professionally-qualified marketing people 10. Institutionalised creativity and innovation Page 52
  • 53. APPENDIX 1 Page 53
  • 54. Valuing Key Market Segments Background/Facts Risk and return are positively correlated, ie. as risk increases, investors require a higher return. Risk is measured by the volatility in returns, ie. high risk is the likelihood of either making a very good return or losing all your money. This can be described as the quality of returns. All assets are defined as having future value to the organisation. Hence assets to be valued include not only tangible assets like plant and machinery, but intangible assets, such as Key Market Segments. The present value of future cash flows is the most acceptable method to value assets including key market segments. The present value is increased by: - increasing the future cash flows - making the future cash flows „happen‟ earlier - reducing the risk in these cash flows, ie. improving the certainty of these cash flows, and, hence, reducing the required rate of return. Page 54
  • 55. Suggested Approach Identify your key market segments. It is helpful if they can be classified on a vertical axis (a kind of thermometer) according to their attractiveness to your company. „Attractiveness‟ usually means the potential of each for growth in your profits over a period of between 3 and 5 years. (See the attached matrix) Based on your current experience and planning horizon that you are confident with, make a projection of future net free cash in-flows from your segments. It is normal to select a period such as 3 or 5 years. These calculations will consist of three parts: revenue forecasts for each year; cost forecasts for each year; net free cash flow for each segment for each year. Identify the key factors that are likely to either increase or decrease these future cash flows. These factors are likely to be assessed according to the following factors: the riskiness of the product/market segment relative to its position on the ANSOFF matrix; the riskiness of the marketing strategies to achieve the revenue and market share; the riskiness of the forecast profitability (e.g. the cost forecast accuracy ). Now recalculate the revenues, costs and net free cash flows for each year, having adjusted the figures using the risks (probabilities) from the above. Ask your accountant to provide you with the overall SBU cost of capital and capital used in the SBU. This will not consist only of tangible assets. Thus, £1,000,000 capital at a required shareholder rate of return of 10% would give £100,000 as the minimum return necessary. Deduct the proportional cost of capital from the free cash flow for each segment for each year. An aggregate positive net present value indicates that you are creating shareholder value – ie. achieving overall returns greater than the weighted average cost of capital, having taken into account the risk associated with future cash flows. Page 55
  • 56. Portfolio analysis - directional policy matrix (DPM) Relative company competitiveness High Low High ? Invest/ build Segment NB. Suggested time period - attractiveness 3 years Maintain Manage for Low No cash change Present position Forecast position in 3 years Page 56
  • 57. APPENDIX 2 Page 57
  • 58. The Contents of a Strategic Marketing Plan (<20 pages) • Mission or Purpose Statement Products • Financial Summary Existing New Existing 1 2 Markets Revenue New Profit 3 4 t.0 T+1 T+2 T+3 Page 58
  • 59. Key (revenue and profit growth) • from productivity • by product for market for existing products from existing markets • from new products in existing markets • from existing products in new markets • from new products in new markets Plus a few words of commentary Market Overview/Summary Market definition Market map showing vol/rev flows from supplier through to end user, with major decision points highlighted Where appropriate, provide a future market map Include commentary/conclusions/implications for the company At major decision points, include key segments Page 59
  • 60. SWOT Analyses on Key Segments • include pictorial representations of the SWOTs, such as bar charts • highlight major conclusions/issues to be addressed Portfolio Summaries of the SWOTs • include Directional Policy Matrix (DPM) summaries of:- - the attractiveness of the segments over the next 3-5 years - the current relative competitive position of your company in each segment - the planned competitive position of each segment over the next 3-5 years Marketing Objectives and Strategies for the next 3-5 years • include objectives (volume, value, market share, profit, as appropriate) for the next 3-5 years for each segment as represented by the planned position of each circle on the DPM • include strategies (the 4XPs) with costs for each objective Consolidated Budget for the next 3-5 years • this will be a consolidation of all the revenues, costs and profits for the next 3-5 years and should accord with the financial summary provided earlier Page 60
  • 61. APPENDIX 3 Page 61
  • 62. Are you getting these essential deliverables from your strategic marketing plan? Score out of 10 Market structure and segmentation • Is there a clear and unambiguous definition of the market we are interested in serving? • Is it clearly mapped, showing product/service flows, volumes/values in total, our shares and critical conclusions for our organisation? • Are the segments clearly described and quantified? These must be groups of customers with the same or similar needs, not sectors. • Are the real needs of these segments properly quantified with the relative importance of these needs clearly identified? Differentiation • Is there a clear and quantified analysis of how well our company satisfies these needs compared to competitors? • Are the opportunities and threats clearly identified by segment? Page 62
  • 63. Score out of 10 Scope · Are all the segments classified according to their relative potential for growth in profits over the next three years and according to our company’s relative competitive position in each? · Are the objectives consistent with their position in the portfolio? (volume, value, market share, profit) · Are the strategies (including products, services and solutions) consistent with the objectives? · Are the measurement metrics proposed relevant to the objectives and strategies? · Are the key issues for action for all departments clearly spelled out as key issues to be addressed? Value capture · Do the objectives and strategies add up to the profit goals required by our company? · Does the budget follow on logically and clearly from all the above, or is it merely an add on? Page 63
  • 65. Take marketing into the boardroom, and connect marketing strategy to shareholder value Available to order now from… www.malcolm-mcdonald.com – insert offer code ATZ6 into the basket and receive 10% off plus free post and packing! Page 65
  • 67. m.mcdonald@cranfield.ac.uk www.malcolm-mcdonald.com Prof. Malcolm McDonald free videos and downloads @www.oxlearn.com