1. Predicting impacts of climate change on biodiversity Dr. Mark C. Andersen, ProfessorDepartment of Fish, Wildlife, and Conservation EcologyNew Mexico State UniversityLas Cruces, NM Oxford Round TableThe Copenhagen Protocol: Problems and PossibilitiesLincoln College, Oxford25 March 2010
2. Climate changes (past and present) influence biodiversity. To anticipate and manage future impacts we need to be able to predict them.
3. Copenhagen committed the world to adaptation Even if targets are met, there is a substantial gap between impacts that can be mitigated and impacts to which we will have to adapt. Most unavoidable impacts are impacts on ecosystems, including Extensive coral bleaching Increased amphibian extinctions Greatly elevated risk of extinction for 20-30% of the world’s species. Parry, Nature Reports Climate Change, 2010
4. This presentation will … Summarize climate change impacts Habitats Ecosystems Species Introduce methods to predict geographic ranges Bioclimatic Maximum entropy Discuss limitations
6. Climate change is impacting habitats Some eastern North American tree species migrating northward 1 km per year. (Woodall et al 2009) Around James Bay in Canada, the permafrost line has receded 130 km in the last 50 years. (Payette & Huppe 2010)
7. Climate change will impact habitats Montane and alpine habitats shift to higher elevations Grassland habitat shifts complex, interact with grazing and farming
8. Climate change impacts ecosystems Fire regimes (fuel loads, ignition frequency) Hydrologic cycles(vegetation changes, snowfall and snowmelt)
9. Observed climate change impacts on species are consistent with predicted impacts PhenologyWalther et al 2002Parmesan & Yohe 2003Doswald et al 2009 Range shiftsParmesan et al 1999Parmesan & Yohe 2003Tingley et al 2009 Other effectsLaurance 2008Boersma et al 2009
11. We can model the way in which current (and future) geographic ranges depend on climate ? Bioclimatic envelope models based on Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) criteria Habitat-based approach
12. ? Bioclimatic envelope models combine the answers to two simple questions What are the climatic conditions in which a species is currently found?Climate data: PRISM, WorldClim, ClimateWizard Occurrence data: GBIF, Natural Heritage programs Where will those conditions be found in the future?GCM predictions
13. MaxEntprovides parsimonious estimation of bioclimatic envelopes Machine learning algorithm to estimate geographic distributions under current and future conditions Phillips et al 2006Baldwin & Bender 2007Phillips & Dudik 2008 ?
14. Bioclimatic models predict habitat loss in the American Pika (Ochotonaprinceps) Regional losses of 53% to 71% across 5 regions (Calkins MS thesis, NMSU, 2010)
15. Bioclimatic models predict patterns of habitat loss in European bats Northern species more likely to suffer losses than temperate and Mediterranean speciesRebelo et al 2010
16. A mixed approach predicts species distributions based on the distributions of habitats Use MaxEnt to predict future distributions of habitat typesRelies on Gap Analysis Project landcover data Overlay existing deductive animal distribution models on future habitat distributionsRelies on Gap Analysis Project animal distribution models ?
17. Mixed approach predicts complex habitat loss pattern for swift fox (Vulpesvelox) Complex response of grassland habitats to future climate scenarios. C3 grasses have advantage at elevated CO2 C4 grasses prefer warmer temperaturesRedman et al MS
19. These approaches have some limitations … Predictions based on current distributions may be unreliable (Dormann et al 2009) Climate-change-induced range shifts may “tear apart” current plant communities (habitats) Species may not be able to disperse to new suitable areas (Midgley et al 2006)
20. … but for now they are the best we have We must use the best available tools to preserve the integrity of the biosphere
