Presentation from 2011 Oxford Round Table

1. Impacts of climate change on agriculture and ecosystem services: It's not the planet that needs saving, it's us Dr. Mark C. Andersen, Professor Department of Fish, Wildlife, and Conservation Ecology New Mexico State University Las Cruces, NM Oxford Round Table Climate Change: The Great Matter Harris Manchester College, Oxford 30 March 2011 Image: Gary Halvorsen, Oregon State Archives

3. Increased amphibian extinctions

4. Greatly elevated risk of extinction for many of the world's species Parry 2010, Nature Reports Climate Change , 4(1002):18-19 What about other impacts that more directly affect humans?

14. Effects of climate change on biodiversity by year 2100 likely to be exceeded only by effects of land-use changes (Sala et al . 2000, Science 287:1770-1774)

15. Mass extinctions in the geologic past

21. (Takes millions of years)

22. Healthy, functioning ecosystems don't depend on us

23. We depend on healthy, functioning ecosystems

29. Changes in timing of runoff

30. Changes in relative length of low-flow and high-flow conditions

31. Different watersheds differentially vulnerable

32. (Null et al. 2010, PloS ONE 5(4))

33. Current reservoirs, canals etc. built for current conditions, not future conditions

34. RESULT: Changing availability of water for agricultural and municipal uses

37. Ignition rate

38. Fire intensity

40. RESULT: Changing fire regimes will impact both natural and human-dominated landscapes

47. Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change – Sir John Beddington, Chief Scientist of UK Science Office, findings to be made available by end of 2011 ( www.ccafs.cgiar.org/content/commission )

55. Salinity changes (particularly in coastal fisheries with nearshore/estuarine spawning) (Lindegren et al., 2010, Proc. Roy Soc. B 277(1691):2121-2130) (Hare et al., 2010, Ecol. Appl. 20(2):452-464)

57. Land-use pressure (Lambin & Meyfroidt, 2011, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 108(9):3465-3472)

58. Contribution of nitrogen fertilizer to GHG emissions, unsustainable patterns of nitrogen use ( www.ccafs.cgiar.org/content/commission )

59. Looming phosphorus shortage (Carpenter & Bennett, 2011, Environ. Res. Lett. 6:014009)

60. Crop failures + growing population + land-use pressure + phosphorus shortage = Potential disaster

65. “If humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed and to which life on Earth is adapted, … CO2 will need to be reduced ...” James Hansen

68. Our lives and our homes need to be part of the solution

69. Our lives and our homes need to be part of the solution

70. Are we worth saving?

71. Are we worth saving?

72. Are we worth saving?

73. Are we worth saving?

74. Are we worth saving?

75. Are we worth saving?

76. Are we worth saving?

77. Are we worth saving?

79. Presentation: www.slideshare.net , search for “Andersen Oxford”