This paper evaluates Peloton Technologies Inc. and was written for an MBA class (Evaluating Innovation Opportunities) at the University of Iowa. The three co-authors of this paper are Mark Brewer, Kristin Knudson and Thomas Baldwin. Kristin Knudson: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kristin-knudson-4266b22a Thomas Baldwin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tabbaldwin

1. Evaluating the Place of Peloton Technologies Inc.,
In the
Commercialization Potential of Autonomous Vehicles
Date of Submission:
8 March 2015
Course:
ENTR:9400:0001
Evaluating Innovation Opportunities
Analyzed By:
Kristin Knudson
Tab Baldwin
Mark Brewer

2. 1
Executive Summary
In this paper we give our assessment of the potential for Peloton Technology
Inc. to succeed as a producer of autonomous vehicle technology. Peloton is the only
company at this point to have a utility patent on technology that links and syncs two
vehicles so that the actions of a lead vehicle dictate those of the following vehicle. In
a convoy, the rear vehicle does not sense and react to the lead. Instead, the action of
the lead driver hitting the break or accelerator immediately causes the same to
happen in the following vehicle. Instead of following the lead vehicle, the convoy is
driven by the lead vehicle. This ability for safe drafting increases fuel efficiency and
decreases accident risk leading to decreased fuel cost, shortened delivery times and
delivery time variance.
The potential for profit is high as the benefits in fuel efficiency can be worth
several billion dollars nation-wide. Peloton offers several services that come with
the technology purchase and stands to earn revenue across multiple segments of the
emerging autonomous technology market. Altogether, we estimate that Peloton can
achieve annual revenue of $2.5 billion by 2030. Pelotons utility patent will likely
ensure that it has few competitors in the field and is free to carve out and maintain a
significant market share.
The major challenges in the United States posing obstacles to early adoption
are the fear of litigation, the legislative landscape and the fact that test results from a
commercial implementation have not yet materialized. We believe that Peloton is
on track to adequately address these in the near future.

3. 2
Background
Imagine rather than owning a personal vehicle, you signal to be picked up
from your location and a driverless pod arrives to take you to your destination.
While you travel, you are free to read a book, work on your computer, or watch your
favorite television show. That is the direction autonomous vehicles are already
moving and before you know it, they will revolutionize human transportation
forever. Autonomous vehicles not only allow for people to engage themselves with
other activities while traveling, they also make the roads safer and remove the
element of human error. Vehicles in production today are able to perform certain
autonomous functions that allow the driver to be less responsible for monitoring
their surroundings and responding to dangerous situations. Though, implementing
such a drastic change in both human behavior and the vehicle industry does not
come without its challenges.
The first developments of autonomy in vehicles dates back as far as the late
1950’s, when the State of Nebraska and RCA Labs performed testing of an
automated highway. Since then, great strides have been made in the field through
research between universities and industry. Both the National Advanced Driving
Simulator (NADS) and the Public Policy Center are at the forefront of autonomous
vehicle exploration here at the University of Iowa. The NADS allows for the testing
of autonomous vehicles in various real world scenarios and monitoring how the
vehicle reacts. Exhaustive investigation must be done on how autonomous vehicles
handle different situations before they may be safely put on the road with other
vehicles and pedestrians. The Public Policy Center assists with shifting litigation to
ease the operability of autonomous vehicles in Iowa City.
As defined by the NHTSA (National Highway Traffic Safety Administration) there
are five different levels of vehicle autonomy, ranging from Level 0 to Level 4. These
levels are defined as follows (NHTSA 2013b):
 Level 0 – No Automation – The driver is completely and solely in control of
the vehicle.
 Level 1 – Function-specific Automation – Driver has overall control. One or
more specific control functions are automated.
 Level 2 – Combined Function Automation – At least two primary control
functions are automated. The driver is still responsible for monitoring safe
operation and must be available to take control on short notice.
 Level 3 – Limited Self-Driving Automation – Driver cedes full control to
automation under certain conditions. Driver is available for occasional
control, but does not have to constantly monitor safe operation.
 Level 4 – Full Self-Driving Automation – Driver supplies destination or
navigation support, but is not expected to be available for control at any time
during the trip.

4. 3
Level 1 autonomy is already present in many vehicles today, such as Adaptive Cruise
Control which automatically adjusts the speed of your cruise based on the speed of
the vehicle in front of you and Electronic Stability Control that detects and reduces
loss of traction. Although most new vehicles come equipped with these features
today, consumers don’t perceive them as features of ‘autonomy’. The gradual
installment of more advanced features will condition society to accept the
increasing autonomy of vehicles as the norm. As early as 2016 General Motors will
be unveiling the “Super Cruise”, Adaptive Cruise Control with the addition of lane-
centering technology that will effectively allow drivers to travel hands free on the
highway. This feature is a shift to Level 2 autonomy and will help pave the way for
more innovations of the same level and beyond.
Product & Service Description
Autonomous technology, in vehicles, allows for the linking of vehicles so they
may start accelerating and decelerating at the same time based on what other
vehicles around them are doing. It will also vastly reduce the amount of accidents on
the road along with the injuries and deaths they produce. In addition to the safety
benefits, vehicles will be able to safely follow each other in closer proximity,
reducing aerodynamic drag and consequently increasing fuel savings. Thus, the
value vehicular autonomy can provide in two key areas, safety and fuel savings, has
vast potential in the trucking industry. The trucking industry spends roughly $150 -
$200 billion a year on fuel, and the most common semi-truck accidents are frontal
collisions.
Peloton Technology is an automated vehicle technology company
headquartered in Silicon Valley that has developed software using radar sensors,
computers connected to the truck’s main computer, and wireless communication
systems, allowing vehicles to communicate with each other. The driver of the front
truck operates as normal, while the second truck follows at 30 feet behind and links
& syncs to the front truck’s acceleration and braking systems. This trailing of one
truck behind another creates a “platooning” effect, resulting in reduced wind
resistance and fuel savings. In addition to the software controlling this platooning,
Peloton will also have the ability to offer a suite of information services including:
 Supply chain analytics by identifying route patterns
 Preventative diagnostics on engines and breaks through onboard
technology
 Event capture of surrounding truck environment for insurance
purposes
The biggest obstacle Peloton Technology faces is the trucking companies’
fear and risk associated with being the first adopter. Concerns with lawsuits, in
regards to accidents, are excessive, especially when the cost of these is extremely
high.

5. 4
Peloton does have an imperative advantage over the competition in that they have
intellectual property protection through a utility patent titled “Systems and methods
for semi-autonomous vehicular convoys”. This patent has several claims that cover
the use of software to create vehicular convoys in close proximity. It also claims the
use of a forward-looking RADAR or LIDAR in conjunction with supplemental
acceleration and braking functions, as well as a forward facing camera to capture
the image of the frontal vehicle and the at least one follower vehicle.
Competitive Advantage
When looking at the commercialization potential for Peloton technologies there
are two main factors to consider that results in their competitive advantage. The
first being the core competencies of the team and their technology. For Peloton
Technologies this includes the unique skills and experience of their team and their
ability to market their proprietary knowledge. The second main factor is the
strategic approach of their product within the industry.
The core competencies of Peloton Technology not only include its well-
diversified and knowledgeable management team, but also their proprietary
intellectual property. Peloton’s diverse management team is made up of
experienced mechanical and software engineers. Several members already hold
patents within various software technologies, while others have experience in
developing production control systems for Volkswagen, Audi, Tesla, and Tula
Technology. In 2012 this knowledgeable team filed for a utility patent for the
systems and methods for semi-autonomous vehicular convoys1. This patent was
granted in 2014, which now gives Peloton Technologies the exclusive rights to the
software and technology that allows vehicles to closely follow one another through
partial automation. The claims of this patent aren’t specific to trucking convoys, thus
they have the ability to expand their market from the niche trucking industry to the
greater automotive industry. This ability to easily scale their business into a much
larger market is extremely advantageous, especially when considering Peloton
Technologies’ competitors.
By analyzing the larger competitive space first, of freight transportation, there
are several other semi-autonomous modes of transportation that are considered
competitors of the trucking industry. For example, both trains and airplanes are
viable options when transporting goods over a long distance. When focusing on
trains, a study conducted by the US Environmental Protection Agency states that
trains are still a more efficient means of transporting goods. In fact when looking at
the cost to users, trains only cost 2.7 cents per ton-mile, while trucks cost 5 cents
per to-mile. Note, that this cost analysis does not take into account the fuel savings
Peloton Technologies generates. Another factor to consider is the route flexibility
and infrastructure. Due to the nature of trains, there are a limited number of routes
that can be utilized, whereas trucks have greater flexibility in the routes they can
operate on. This flexibility in route infrastructure is important, especially as demand

6. 5
begins to grow. As stated by Brown and Hatch4 , unless there is significant
investment to the infrastructure of intermodal railways, freight demand will be
unable to keep up with the growth. Suggesting that a more flexible system, such as
the trucking industry, is better suited to fulfill the needs of the growing demand for
freight transportation.
Narrowing the scope of the competitive landscape, to focus on competitive
technologies, there currently exist solutions to safer driving within the trucking
industry. Bendix’s automatic braking system2 is one example that has been installed
on Volvo, Mack, and International vehicles. This competitive technology is an
adaptive cruise control with the ability to set a following distance. Meaning that
trucks can utilize the benefits of cruise control with the added benefit of maintaining
a certain distance behind the vehicles they follow. The differences between Bendix’s
system and Peloton technologies is the linking that occurs between the lead vehicle
and the vehicle following, as well as the service Peloton offers to notify trucks that
are near one another with this technology. This linking helps to sync the cruising
speeds at which the vehicles are traveling. While the value propositions of increased
safety are the same for these two different companies, Peloton also advertises the
cost savings advantage of using their technology.
In conjunction with the core competencies, the strategy used to capture and
retain market share is critical to sustaining Peloton Technologies’ competitive
advantage. Because their technology is the first of its kind, there are many
advantages to having the first to market product differentiation strategy, including
capturing market share for a defined amount of time, Peloton’s brand exposure, and
their proprietary IP. There are also disadvantages including an untested market and
the unknown need for this product. While the fuel cost savings and increased safety
value propositions are attractive, the need for this product hasn’t been determined.
For a disruptive technology entering a new market several barriers must be
analyzed in order to successfully secure market share. Product differentiation is
considered to be one of the several barriers, but due to the innovative technology
and first mover position of Peloton Technologies, this barrier is considered to be
low. Other barriers for Peloton Technologies include economies of scale,
government regulations, and adoption costs.
As mentioned above, the barrier to entry in regards to economies of scale are
low. While Peloton Technologies is initially marketing this technology for the
trucking industry, the potential to expand this market to the greater automotive
industry is not an issue. While vehicular autonomy may create a sense of fear and
cause resistance in some individuals, the general public’s awareness of cruise
control has been around for years. Thus, there is no anticipation of additional
resistance of introducing the concept of connected cruise control.
Due to the continually changing landscape of vehicle automation, the National
Highway and Safety Administration (NHTSA) has defined 5 levels of vehicle
automation. Where Level 0 is no automation and Level 4 is full self-driving

7. 6
automation. Each level requires ample amounts of research and development, not
only for the technology, but also for federal regulations and laws. Existing
technologies that are classified as Level 1 automated vehicles include electronic
stability control and adaptive cruise control. Peloton Technology is defined by
NHTSA as a Level 1 automated vehicle, where there is 1 or more specific control
functions. Therefore there are no federal regulations in regards to autonomous
vehicle technology, which inhibit Peloton Technologies from commercialization.
However, other physical factors that must be considered in regards to Peloton
technology include tailgating/platooning. Again, while there are no federal
regulations that prevent the use of Peloton’s technology, states have their own
tailgating laws. These laws differ state-by-state, and either limit the number of
trucks that can link together or not allow the use of this technology all together.
Because Peloton Technologies is a first to market technology, switching costs or
adoption costs are considered to be a relatively high barrier to entry. While the
monetary costs of implementing the software are low, the liability risks related to
accident litigation are high. As with any early adopter, the burden of educating the
market has high costs, especially when these costs revolve around lawsuit issues. It
is unknown what legal disputes will result from this autonomous technology, and
therefore a truck’s insurance will likely increase from the current $3 million, costing
the trucking company large amounts. In addition to this, if two synced trucks are
involved in an accident, they are likely to be treated as one party in litigation,
bringing the possible insurance payout to at least $6 million. We expect that the fear
of this risk will erode quickly as early adopters report success.
Industry and Market
Volvo Trucks rolled out a demonstration of its own platooning technology in
2012 by filming a small documentary on a convoy of two Volvo trucks and three
Volvo cars in a platoon lead by the lead truck that traveled a stretch of 200 km on
the highway in Spain8. It showed engineers and executives from Volvo sitting
behind the steering wheel while reading a book, as additional Volvo engineers sat in
the back seat. This demonstration is part of an effort backed by the European
Commission called “Project SARTRE” (Safe Road Trains for the Environment). Volvo
has also begun heavily publicizing the “Drive Me” program, in which 100 level three
autonomous cars will be test-driven in Gothenburg, Sweden starting in 20177. The
stated goal is that drivers should be able to completely disengage while on the
highway. “Drive Me” is the first step in an ambitious goal by Volvo to have no
serious injuries or fatalities in the vehicles it produces as of 2020.
Additionally, the European Commission also begun “Project Companion” in
which it is allocating €4.5 million ($4.86 million) to Scania to develop similar
technology and explore the legislative changes necessary to allow platooning in the
UK6. It stands to reason that as the UK moves towards full adoption, the remaining
member states of the British Commonwealth will begin moving in that direction as

8. 7
well. It is expected in both markets that the increased safety and reduced fuel costs
will lead to legislative changes mandating the use of this technology in the future for
both cars and trucks. While we cannot know exact dates, the well-established
nature of the technology and the windfall of safety and environmental benefits they
are expected to deliver make it likely that these capabilities will be EU mandated on
all cars, trucks and busses within the next 15 years. It should be noted, that the
aggressive publicity push by Volvo, in combination with the support that the
Swedish government is lending Volvo, could result in these legislative changes
coming to Sweden much sooner. If this happens, and the shows marked safety and
environmental improvements, the rest of the EU will likely move up its timetable.
While the market in the EU and the British Commonwealth is going to be
driven by government support and legislation, the situation in the United States is
different. Here the market driver is cost, and governments are either moving slowly
or unable to move at all. A major hurdle comes from the myriad of state laws
outlawing platooning and setting minimum safe distances between vehicles that
differ in many states. Peloton Technology has dealt with this by adapting its model
to target individual fleets and trucks. The minimum distance between trucks set by
most state laws is still close enough to get some drafting effect. This allows Peloton
Tech to sell its efficiency benefits to trucks and fleets and makes it easier to get
government support as it is able to demonstrate that mandated distances are
maintained. Over time, as the benefits are demonstrated and accepted, legislative
changes will likely allow for closer drafting, especially as it is rolled out in Europe.
It will be difficult for Peloton Tech to move in the European or UK markets, as
the markets will be saturated by other autonomous vehicle technology by the time
Peloton is able to move in. It will also be competing with large auto manufacturers
who have government backing. However, neither Volvo nor Scania are major
players in the North American truck market. Not only will Volvo and Scania have to
face the same legislative hurdles faced by Peloton Tech but Peloton’s patent may
also serve as an additional barrier to entry. In addition to this, Peloton is not tied to
any one truck manufacturer and can thus sell to all types. It also offers a tracking
and logistics service that notifies trucks with their technology when they are near
each other so that they can platoon. This tracking service is not mentioned by
Scania or Volvo Trucks. The ability to collect and analyze real-time data on shipping
like this can translate into services for urban planning, public policy, military
logistics and supply chain analytics. Peloton Tech has clearly learned from some of
its Silicon Valley brethren on the financial virtues of selling one service in a way that
allows them to collect data that can then be sold as part of another service.
Exactly how the market for autonomous vehicle technology will grow is
unknown. Forecasts differ on the extent of autonomy and market capture thereof.
Current forecasts also focus on cars, which are primarily for personal use, than
trucks, which are built to produce revenue. The aggregate spending power of the
trucking industry is more enticing for autonomous technology as each use of the
truck generates revenue and thus brings greater potential for greater returns in

9. 8
using this technology. The market predictions discussed here concern cars, though
for this discussion it is assumed that this may be analogous to trucks. Given the high
demand for increased ROI in trucking, the analyses discussed here may actually be
conservative.
Navigant Research has estimated that fully autonomous Level-4 vehicles that
enable drivers to cede full control of all functions for the entire duration of a trip,
will go from selling 8,000 units in 2020 (0.01% of the market) to 95 million units in
2035 (75% of the market)6. More conservative estimates, given by Boston-based
Strategy Analytics and Lux Research5, Inc., will cap out between 25-35% by 2030
and consist entirely of Level 3 autonomous vehicles that provide limited self-driving
automation, enabling drivers to cede full control of all safety-critical functions under
certain traffic or environmental conditions6.
The estimates given by Strategy Analytics and Lux Research, Inc. seem more
realistic due to the fact that they extend less far into the future. Navigant based its
findings on technologies that are already mature and contain rollout plans in place
within the industry. Extrapolating 20 years into the future fails to take into account
any changes the market landscape may experience. The assumption by Navigant
that all autonomous vehicle technology will follow the same growth and rate of
consumer adoption that adaptive cruise control did has yet to experience an
evidence-based contradiction, but likely will.
The more conservative approach by Strategy Analytics is that the greatest
potential for growth involves the combination of adaptive cruise control, lane
departure warnings, and blind spot monitoring in light vehicles. The percentage of
light vehicles on the market with this combination was only 1% in 2010 and is
projected to reach 5% in 2015. If this growth holds true, this combination of
autonomy will grow to 9% in 2020, 13% in 2025 and 18% in 2030. These numbers
do not take into account any changes in the price of these technologies or legislation
changes. The price of the technology will most likely fall as more competitors enter
the market and legislation is difficult to predict. Any legislative changes that
mandate autonomous vehicle technologies will drive the market, though these
changes in legislation will likely come more slowly in the US than in Europe.
Lux Research Inc. predicts that the current market value for autonomous
vehicle technology will grow from less than $500 million today to $87 billion in
2030. The largest portion of this will come in the form of software (about $25
billion) followed by optical cameras, computer hardware, carmaker profits and
radar ($10-15 billion each). There will be smaller gains for connectivity & apps,
wireless hardware, wiring and LIDAR ($1-9 billion each). Mapping, already a
mature and widely adopted technology, will see minute gains of a few million.
Of these, the linking & syncing between trucks is radar-guided and software
controlled. The market segment driven by radar will be more limited in what it has
to offer, but Pelotons software capabilities and ongoing service offerings that come
with them will make them very competitive in this segment.

10. 9
The radar portion of the autonomous technology market is expected to top
out at just under $10 billion by 2022. Half of that growth will be captured by Volvo
Trucks and Scania in Europe while Peloton is still growing its US foothold. Peloton
still has much room to grow in that it provides ongoing customer support that puts
platoon-ready trucks in touch with each other. The service aspect, offering analytics
to fleet managers such as truck diagnostics, event capture (insurance implications),
driver training and predictive maintenance sets them apart (so far) and can allow
them to grow on their core product while they develop further software capabilities
that enhance what they already offer.
It is hard to predict what Peloton will do in a market that has yet to truly
emerge. Peloton is the only emerging player in the linking & syncing segment of this
potential market and it is feasible to expect that they will obtain a dominant market
share in the US. It is very difficult to assess what portion of their future income will
come from software, apps, connectivity, or hardware. For the sake of simplifying
this assessment, we estimated what portion of the radar-based market segment
Peloton Tech can tap into. If the market reaches $10 billion, and US accounts for half
of that market, and Peloton obtains a dominant market share, then the estimate on
Peloton Tech’s future could exceed $2.5 billion per year.
Peloton states on its own site that it can offer 10% increase fuel efficiency for
following trucks and 4.5% for lead trucks, bringing the average efficiency of even a
two-truck convoy to 7.5%. Fuel accounts for 40% of the cost of operating a fleet and
trucking accounts for about 10% of US oil use overall. Peloton itself estimates that a
7.5% increase in fuel efficiency on all trucks nationwide would free up $6 billion. It
can be inferred from the information listed on its site that Peloton feels it may well
capture more than our $2.5 billion per year estimate, especially when the event
capture (insurance), preventative diagnostics and supply chain analytics services it
offers carve out savings that don’t come from that $6 billion in fuel.
It should be expected that Peloton’s ties to Silicon Valley give it access to
resources that can use the mega-data collected in monitoring trucks, to design a
whole suite of marketable services, though what they are and the value they will
have are impossible to gauge at this time.
Financial Analysis
The potential for profit and ROI are very high. Besides the benefits that the
technology provides to customers, pricing is such that customers are able to recoup
costs in less than one year. It is not clear as to whether this results from the
combination of price and benefits or if Peloton is offering a razor/razor-blade sales
approach.
Peloton offers fleet tracking and the ability to notify trucks of their proximity
to each other. This is an on-going service that brings trucks together on the road so
that they can form a platoon. There is a per mile service charge during platooning

11. 10
activities and the tracking service is subscription based. The preventative
diagnostics and event capture are likely subscription based while the driver training
service is most likely a per-use fee. The combination of per-use fees and ongoing
subscription services offers Peloton a model that offers a consistent re-occurring
revenue stream and a high potential for profit.
Since the bulk of revenue is software and service driven, the revenue and the
rate of revenue increase generated through growth can be expected to outstrip the
scale-up costs. The capital costs are low in general, due to the nature of software as
a service business model
Recommendations
Through our analysis, we conclude that the viability of the technology is
extremely high. As with any innovative technology the landscape is expected to
change, quickly at times, and in ways that have not yet been predicted. The current
challenge for Peloton is finding early adopters.
Peloton has the ability to show increased fuel efficiency through the use of its
technology. They have the cooperation with the state of Iowa to allow the
implementation of this technology and have entered into talks with the state of
Illinois as well. It is imperative that this agreement goes through, as the Omaha-
Chicago route on I-80 is a major shipping route. There are several partners helping
to facilitate this and there are no signs indicating that this agreement will be blocked.
Moving forward, Peloton needs to identify key partners that will use their
technology in a commercial setting. Peloton should offer to fit their technology on a
number of trucks within the same commercial fleet (for example 6 trucks) that
travel this route for a period of several months to even a year. In order for the key
partner to enter into an agreement, Peloton will most likely have to offer cost
discounts in order to retain the right to publish commercial fleet research findings.
It is imperative that Peloton be able to publish results that show fuel reduction,
decreased accident rates, decreased delivery times, decreased variability in delivery,
increased savings through predictive diagnostics, increased route completions
within a given time-frame and decreased insurance payouts through the use of the
technology and services offered by Peloton. Showing positive results in these areas,
as apposed to promise in these areas, will serve as proof of concept in a commercial
setting and drive adoption rates. In conjunction with this, Peloton should continue
working with the states of Iowa and Illinois to lift convoy restrictions on truck fleets
– slowly, as data supporting the safety viability is being produced – to allow them to
platoon in increasingly tighter quarters.

12. 11
Acknowledgements
Time and expertise were graciously shared with us by several members of
the Iowa City and University of Iowa communities. These individuals provided
insight into the technology, policy, and business development efforts involved in
ushering this new technological landscape into being. The excitement of learning
about this subject lay in the realization that this was about much more than a single
technology or company, but rather in the vanguard of a paradigm shift in
transportation. The original aim was to focus on autonomous vehicle technology in
general, but the complexities, possibilities and implications are staggering. We are
grateful for the fact that several of these gentlemen have worked specifically with
Peloton Technology Inc., and were thus able to steer the discussion to a more
focused approach. The analysis of this single company mirrors that of the few other
players in this field so far, and kept our focus on the industry as it stands today as
opposed to getting bogged down in the unknowns of what the future will look like.
The individuals who kindly shared their knowledge with us are:
Omar Ahmad, Assistant Director at the National Advanced Driving Simulator,
University of Iowa
Chris Schwarz, Research Director at the National Advanced Driving Simulator,
University of Iowa
Mark Nolte, President, Iowa City Area Development Group
Daniel McGehee, Director, Human Factors and Vehicle Safety Research at the
Public Policy Center, University of Iowa

13. 12
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