ExplainingdeglobalisationPanel

1. Explaining
(de)Globalisation
What's Next for Companies and Investors?
September 2021
Lan Ha, Economy Finance and Trade Manager
An Hodgson, Senior Incomeand Expenditure Manager

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Euromonitor International
network and coverage
ABOUT EUROMONITOR INTERNATIONAL

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ABOUT THE SPEAKERS
About the speakers
AnHodgson
Incomeand Expenditure
Senior Manager
Lan HaA
Economy, Financeand
TradeManager
Michele Santolamazza
Territory Lead – Banking and
ProfessionalServices

4. OVERVIEW
© EuromonitorInternational
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INTRODUCTION
TRENDS SHAPING FUTURE GLOBALISATION
IMPACTS ON BUSINESS AND CONSUMERS
ADAPTING TO THE NEW GLOBAL ERA
Q&A

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The forces shifting globalisation today
INTRODUCTION
Globalisation
Reset
Technology
Changing
economic
power
Changing consumer
values
Geopolitical
risks
COVID-19
pandemic
(and any future global
shocks)

6. Trends shaping future
globalisation

7. Diversification
of suppliers, production locations and
markets as businesses seek to build
resilience and mitigate geopolitical risks
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0 10 20 30
North America
Middle East and Africa
Latin America
Western Europe
World
Eastern Europe
Asia Pacific
Manufacturing as % of regional GDP
Manufacturing Sector by Region
2010/2020
2020
2010
Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics/World Bank

8. Digitalisation
and automation in manufacturing.
Digital trade and cross-border e-commerce
to gain importance
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0 20 40 60
Beauty and personal care
Consumer electronics
Food and beverages
Apparel and personal accessories
Automotive
Household essentials
% of respondents
Invest in Automation and New Supply Chain
Technologies by Manufacturing Industry
2021
Source: Euromonitor‘s Voice of the Industry COVID-19 Survey - April 2021

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Digitalisation: strong growth expected for
B2B E-Commerce
TRENDS SHAPING FUTURE GLOBALISATION
0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000
Chemical Products
Machinery
Hi-tech Goods
Metal Products
Energy
Construction and Real Estate
Government Organizations
Finance and Insurance
Utilities and Recycling
Transport and Storage
Food, Beverages and Tobacco
Business Services
Information and Communications
Transport Equipment
Retail and Wholesale
USD million
B2B E-commerceSales in Selected Industries,2020-2025
2020 Increase by 2025
Source: Euromonitor International Industrial System

10. Sustainability
Greater focus on environmental, social and
governance criteria in foreign investment
and throughout global supply chains.
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40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
2010 2020 2030 2040
2010=100
Global Commodity Prices Indices 2010-
2040
Commodity Fuel (Energy) Index
Metals Index
Agricultural Raw Materials Index
Source: Euromonitor International CommodityPrice Model

11. Impacts on business and
consumers

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Businesses and investors are facing new
challenges
IMPACTS ON BUSINESSAND CONSUMERS
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
%
Labour Productivity Growth 2001-2020
Global Economy
Developed Economies
Emerging and Developing Economies
Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics
Note: Labour productivity measured as USD per worker in constant prices.
Higher
production
costs
Upward
pressure on
prices
Risk of labour
shortage
Slowing down
productivity

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Globalisation lifted millions out of poverty
IMPACTS ON BUSINESSAND CONSUMERS
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
1990 2000 2010 2020
%
of
population
Population LivingBelow InternationalPoverty Line ($1.90 a Day)
Bangladesh China India Indonesia Vietnam

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But for many it meant stagnant income
IMPACTS ON BUSINESSAND CONSUMERS
30,000
60,000
90,000
1990 2000 2010 2020
USD
per
household
Japan Canada France Germany Italy United Kingdom
MedianDisposable Income in Selected DevelopedCountries 1990-2020

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Consumer income in the new phase of globalisation
IMPACTS ON BUSINESSAND CONSUMERS
Global
trade
▪ Reduced
competition leads
to rising
consumer prices
and less choice
▪ Rebirth of local
industry can
boost income
from wages,
giving the middle
class a chance to
expand
Financial
flows
▪ Reduced FDI
inflows adversely
impact jobs and
income growth in
export-reliant
economies
Travel
&
migration
▪ Labour shortage
problems will be
exacerbated in
advanced
economies
▪ Reduce
remittances will
impact the
livelihood and
purchasing power
of many people in
developing
countries
Digital
connectivity
▪ Greater digital
connectivity can
give billions of
people access to
ecommerce
platforms to
engage in global
trade of both
goods and
services

16. Potential winners
Economies with a large internal market
High value-added industries including e-commerce
Local brands
Growing pressure for
Small and open economies
Export-/Import-dependentindustries
Multinationals and global brands
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-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
Change
to
GDP
Growth
Relative
to
Baseline,
%
points
US-China All Out Trade War Scenario: Real
GDP Impact Forecast
World USA China
Source: Euromonitor International Macro Model
Note:(1) Scenario assumption:USA and China bilaterally raise tariffs on
imports by 15-25 percentage points. (2) Scenario probability: 3-11% (3) Years
1-3 are relative to scenario start date.

17. Adapting to the new global
era

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Future demand for trade and investment
ADAPTING TO THE NEW GLOBAL ERA
75%
of global economic growth
between 2021 and 2040 will come
from emerging and developing
markets
54%
real increase in cross-border e-
commerce between 2021 and
2025
168
forecast value of the global fuel
price index by 2030 (2020=100)

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Key business strategies to win
ADAPTING TO THE NEW GLOBAL ERA
Building resilience and agility
Accelerating digital transformation
Be consumer-centric
Focusing on people and the planet

20. Thank you
Lan Ha
Lan.ha@euromonitor.com
https://www.linkedin.com/in/lan-ha-hoang/
@HoangLan_Ha
An Hodgson
An.hodgson@euromonitor.com
https://www.linkedin.com/in/aphodgson
@An_Hodgson
Michele Santolamazza
Michele.Santolamazza@Euromonitor.com
https://www.linkedin.com/in/michele-santolamazza/