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Daniel Gilbert - How to build your own automated bidding system in less than 6 weeks

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Bidding has become more difficult. With over 1000 changes in AdWords last year, there is a new level of complexity that cannot be managed by any humanoid. With automation now a necessity, Daniel will run through a number of real-world examples of bidding automation. Once you've finished this session you'll have all the tools you need to bid better than 90% of advertisers.

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Daniel Gilbert - How to build your own automated bidding system in less than 6 weeks

  1. 1. @danielgilbert44 How to build yourown automated bidding system in less than 60 weeks
  2. 2. @danielgilbert44 Hi, I’m Dan Gilbert • 40 Super-geeks • “Best PPC Agency in the world”* *According to a Survey of me
  3. 3. @danielgilbert44 Comingto #mktfest
  4. 4. @danielgilbert44 Automationis notoptional 4 A basic AdWords account with 10,000 keywords has a trillion bidding possibilities every single day
  5. 5. @danielgilbert44 Problemwith 3rd party tools Not responsive enough Not up to date Not bespoke Lots of stuff you don’t need 5
  6. 6. @danielgilbert44 Be More Responsive 6
  7. 7. @danielgilbert44 • AdWords restricted to 6 bidding windows • 3rd party tools make 4 changes max • Overall ROI increase of 11% for Domino’s Pizza http://bit.ly/1GwKN1Z 24/7 Bidding
  8. 8. @danielgilbert44 • Mobiles are different at different times Adjust mobilebidshourly Hour Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday 0 157% -41% 59% -7% 74% -17% -5% 1 -36% 11% -79% 96% 72% 3% -52% 2 58% -41% 103% -22% -40% 19% -28% 3 36% 240% -33% 153% 468% 22% 4 -66% 362% 221% -36% -88% 5 -11% 153% 122% 215% 140% 6 66% 31% 18% 39% 219% 18% -3% 7 20% -53% -2% -11% 18% 26% 2% 8 12% 18% -1% -5% 63% 17% -29% 9 -11% 13% 7% 42% -26% -29% -54% 10 30% 5% -12% 40% 29% -30% -15% 11 16% -31% 36% 37% -14% -23% 30% 12 94% 20% -2% 8% 41% -37% 34% 13 -25% -21% 32% 17% -29% -11% -15% 14 -23% -17% 13% 3% 46% -6% -15% 15 1% 0% 20% -10% 25% -15% 5% 16 -4% 14% -17% 10% 15% -16% 4% 17 6% 10% 8% -3% 58% -26% -29% 18 1% -13% -5% 77% 41% 6% 36% 19 27% 13% -5% 3% 8% -1% -11% 20 -1% 3% 9% 23% 63% -16% -9% 21 -5% 4% 31% 23% -29% -13% 2% 22 -31% -3% -3% 25% 110% -17% 18% 23 7% 13% -21% 33% 21% 3% -37% MobileDesktop •http://bit.ly/1GwKN1Z
  9. 9. @danielgilbert44 • Free script available here: • http://selnd.com/1MT8P8d Check yourown data
  10. 10. @danielgilbert44 • AdWords is an auction • 3rd party tools make 4 changes max • Overall ROI increase of 67% for alpharooms • http://bit.ly/1IcQDAF RTB to position
  11. 11. @danielgilbert44 • Call centre demand changes • 3rd party tools make 4 changes max • Overall CR increase of 17% for Chill Insurance + 32% reduced spend • http://bit.ly/1IcQDAF Bid to respondto demand
  12. 12. @danielgilbert44 Stay Ahead 12
  13. 13. @danielgilbert44 13 “There were over 1000 changes to AdWords last year” - Me, now
  14. 14. @danielgilbert44 • Released in Marin March 2014 • Accessible via OpenWeatherMap • Overall Conversion increase of 14% for alpharooms • http://bit.ly/1KEKGwc & http://bit.ly/1PMCVcO Adjustbids basedon the weather
  15. 15. @danielgilbert44 • Still not visible in most 3rd parties • None ready for custom audiences Bid for locations & audiences
  16. 16. @danielgilbert44 Youare special. Why? 16
  17. 17. @danielgilbert44 Learn about your business 17
  18. 18. @danielgilbert44 Test and Learn 18 Tim Harford - http://bit.ly/1RATBEt
  19. 19. @danielgilbert44 19 Element Keyword Level Optimisation Account Level Optimisation Bid change decision Each keyword is bid according to its own value prediction. Optimize target metric total for portfolio of keywords. Ability to set portfolio level budget and efficiency constraints. Total cost and target predicted for each keyword at different bid levels. Rapid reaction to seasonal trends in data. Longtail management Clustering algorithms used to create predictions for tail terms. Mobile Can be optimised at AdGroup level Data Requirements 10 conversions in 90 days 1 conversion in last 7 days 10 conversions/day 100 clicks/day What about for algorithms?
  20. 20. @danielgilbert44 20 bid < (conversion rate) x(MaxCPA) bid > (conversion rate) x(MaxCPA) bid < (conversion rate) x(MaxCPA) 1 2 3 Example: Bidding is pretty basic
  21. 21. 21 PID example o Make your own lookback windows oThese sample weights gives us a weighted predicted conversion rate of 13.5% oTherefore, MaxCPC = Conversion Rate * MaxCPA = £5.40 * 13.5% = 73p Conversion rate period 7 Days 14 Days 30 Days [pokemon meetups] 7% 14% 28% Weighting 9% 90% 1% 0 5 10 15 20 Relative weighting Look back period Choose your ownlookback
  22. 22. 22 o For keywords without significant historical data our bespoke clustering algorithms group relevant keywords. o Longtail terms such as [increase my pokemon collection anonymously] present a data problem. o Use three-dimensional clustering for longtail terms. A simplistic illustration: Data from campaign level – or product category Data from behavioural clustering Data from semantic clustering Not enough data at keyword level Make yourownclusters
  23. 23. 23 Test weightings o We construct weightings across the different clustering dimensions. o This table shows suggested weightings for the keyword [dkny dress for my lovie dovie]. Cluster dress dkny Semantic(in/for) Conversation 8% 13% 2% Sampleweighting 15% 80% 5% o Calculated weighted conversion rate: 17% o MaxCPC = £7.80 * 17% = £1.36 0 5 10 15 20 Relative weighting Look back period
  24. 24. 24 The magic – A/B test it 0 5 10 15 20 Relative weighting Lookbackperiod ClusteringA 0 5 10 15 20 Relative weighting Lookbackperiod ClusteringB 0 5 10 15 20 Relative weighting Lookbackperiod PID Loop B 0 5 10 15 20 Relative weighting Lookbackperiod PID Loop A http://selnd.com/1Chx7PH
  25. 25. @danielgilbert44 25 The magic – A/B test it • I know I get better conversion rates in London but should I increase bids there? • Which is the best bid management software for me? • Am I using the best campaign structure? • Is my PPC agency any good? http://www.brainlabsdigital.com/brainlabs-tech-stack
  26. 26. @danielgilbert44 26 The End! daniel.g@brainlabsdigital.com @danielgilbert44

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