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Comcast vs Time Warner

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Comcast vs Time Warner

  1. 1. 2014 2014 2015
  2. 2. SECTOR INDUSTRY Services Entertainment - Diversified Services Broadcasting & Cable - Entertainment FOUNDER DATE Steven J. Ross 1990 Ralph J. Roberts 1963 HEADQUARTER ADDRESS One Comcast Center PA 19103-2838 One Time Warner Center NY 10019 SYMBOL MARKET CAP TWX $70 billion CMCSA $153 billion N° of EMPLOYEES YEAR END 34,000 December 31st 136,000 December 31st 27 years x2.2 x4.0 TWX Employees more productive
  3. 3. Born June 28, 1959 in Philadelphia (55 years old) Aggressive Deal Maker (AT&T, Walt Disney) Since there, Comcast annual revenue x100 Billionaire $1,2 Billion (Forbes) Base Salary: $2.8 million in 2013 Compensation: $31.4 million in 2013 His father bought American Cable System in 1963 and renamed it Comcast in 1969. Interned at Comcast at 15 years old Named President in 1990 Named CEO in 2002 Has 1/3 of the voting power in the company Board member of the bank of New York
  4. 4. Born May 25, 1952 in Paterson, New Jersey (63 years old) Served as board at Yale University and advisory board at Georges Washington University. Commercial Banker at CitiBank Total Compensation: $32.5 million in 2013 Base Salary: $2.0 million in 20131991 1995 2002 2005 2007 2008 2009 today
  5. 5. Functions of Broasdcasting and Cable (TV / Internet) - Industry • Provide Audio, Video and Internet to businesses or individuals • Providing television to paying subscribers via radio frequency signals transmitted usually through cables or fiber-optic cables. • Provide High-Speed Internet to customers • Provide regular access to entertainment
  6. 6. Functions of the Entertainment – Diversified Industry Keeping audience’s attention and interest through instantly available entertaining broadcasting media. Provide a mean to achieve amusement and intellectual growth. Different segments providing different forms of entertainment: TV, film, radio, theme parks, internet, video games… Development of new technologies to create new business models and improve customer experience.
  7. 7. • ACHIEVING BUSINESS THROUGH: - Subscription (Cable, Video on Demand, Internet) - Physical Publishing (DVDs, CDs, magazines) - Advertisement Sales and Advertising Sharing Arrangements - Licensing Agreements (Films and other productions distribution) Residential Customers: 1. Subscribers 2. Products and Services customers Business Customers: 1. Advertising firms 2. Retailers 3. Other Media Distributors Monthly How about that ?! ;-)
  8. 8. M E D I A A N D E N T E R T A I N M E N T +191% +11% The internet has allowed to shift from traditional to digital revenue The Global Industry was worth $1.9 Trillion in 2014 $2.3 Trillion in 2018 expected Market Capitalization $4,605.2 Billion Forecast Entertainment and media worldwide revenue
  9. 9. 179 153 44 43 69 205 36 46 In $Billions 196
  10. 10. In $Billions 153 179 69 72 18 28 30 141
  11. 11. Joint Venture between Comcast and GE for Comcast to acquire 51% of NBCU for $17.1 B is validated by the FCC Comcast acquires GE’s 49% ownership in NBCUniversal for $16.7 B Comcast Corporation and Time Warner Cable announcement of merger FCC delayed the merger, people complain, but offer is still on the table 2011 2013 2014 Today200420032002 - / - Comcast and AT&T Broadband $47.5 billion merger, which made Comcast the biggest US Cable Company Comcast sells its 57% stake in QVC to Liberty Media for $7.7 billion. Comcast’s initial investment in QVC was $380 million. Brian Roberts is named Chairman of Comcast Corporation and the company starts to rock !! NBCUniversal is created.
  12. 12. AOL Time Warner $186 billion megamerger, the largest acquisition in U.S. history. 2000 proposed $ 94.4 B to acquire Time Warner but had to withdraw offer because of the FCC. 2013 Time Warner seperates from AOL and Time Warner Cable 2009 Warner Communications and Time Inc./HBO $14.9 billion merger, which gave birth to Time Warner Inc. 1989 Turner Broadcasting Systems merged with Time Warner for $7.5 billion 1996
  13. 13. The FCC delayed reviews of the merger. The FCC delayed reviews of the merger. $48.5 billion Would bring the number of video subscribers up to 26 million, 3.5 million more than Comcast has today. $45.2 billion Would bring the number of video subscribers up to approximately 30 million reaching the FCC’s 30% threshold.
  14. 14. + 47% + 33% + 6% - 2% - 8% - 14% - 19% +83% - 46% + 90% + 18M - 64% - 11M - 30M + $130M + 208% - 25%
  15. 15. 11.5 1 out of 2 internet users in Spain illegally access digital content. More than 1 million illegal downloads of Game of Thrones! The US economy loses $12.5 billion in revenue each year due to online piracy. 70 percent of online users in Denmark believe there is nothing wrong with piracy. US downloaded more music than any other country in 2012, 97 M recorded in just six months. Last year’s most popular pirated movie was downloaded more than 8 million times. Bruno Mars claimed the most pirated musician mantle in 2013, 5.8M downloads. 42 percent of the computer software was pirated in 2010. A worth of $59 billion was downloaded. Music sales in the United States have dropped 47 percent in the decade. Almost a quarter (23.76 percent) of all internet traffic, was estimated to be infringing copyright. More than 146 million visits were logged every day at just 43 of the world’s digital piracy sites. There are 3 main methods to download movies, series, MP3: The Peer To Peer (P2P): This protocol is based on the principle of sharing. Newsgroups: requires a subscription to a newsgroup server. Direct download: upload your media directly from a dedicated hosting provider in the data storage.
  16. 16. Sri Lanka ? ? Cameroon (By Revenue)
  17. 17. • Video services • High-speed Internet • Voice services • Cable Networks • Broadcast Television • Filmed Entertainment • Theme Parks 0 5 10 15 20 25 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 In% Comcast Customer Repartition Video customers Digital video customers High Speed Internet customers Voice customers
  18. 18. premium cable and satellite television network branded news, entertainment on television and digital channels Magazines and Print publishing film, television and music entertainment
  19. 19. S O W T  Xfinity almost Cable Monopoly  Theme Parks  Blockbusters  Magazines  Major Sporting Events  Programming distribution Agreement  Financial Health  Brand image – Customer/Employee satisfaction  Cable  Increasing programming expenses  Federal, state, local and foreign legislation: regulations  Intellectual property right protection  Declining DVD and Blu-Ray sales  Time Warner Cable Merger  FOX 21st Century Merger  3D and other HD technologies  Growing global access to digital media, Gain Market Share  Mobiles devices - Interactivity  Piracy, streaming, cyber-attack  Evolving at the environment’s pace  Weak economic conditions - Elastic Demand  Decline of Advertising market  Risk related to doing business worldwide
  20. 20. (in millions) 2013 2012 Programming and production costs 2,982 3,002 (In millions) 2013 2012 Film and television production costs 5,620 5,598
  21. 21. • More than 5,000 feature films in library • Top 10 highest grossing films total $ 2.97 B • 4 nominations at the 2013 Academy Awards • 6 wins for best picture since 1927 • 6,500 feature films in library • Top 10 highest grossing films total $ 3.58 B • 21 nominations at the 2013 Academy Awards • 10 wins for best picture since 1927
  22. 22. Date: 2013 Director: P. Coffin C. Renaud Gross: $970.7 M Oscar: 2 Nominations Date: 1993 Director: S. Spielberg Gross: $1,029 M Oscar: Date: 1982 Director: S. Spielberg Gross: $792.9 M Oscar: 5 Nominations + Date: 2008 Director: C. Nolan Gross: $1,004.5 M Oscar: 7 Nominations + Date: 2011 Director: D. Yates Gross: $1,341.5 M :Oscar Date: 2012 Director: P. Jackson Gross: $1,017 M :Oscar
  23. 23. PRODUCT DIFFERENTIATION Xfinity Largest US video, high speed internet and voice services provider in the US. Local to national. 300 Channels, 50,000 episodes. Even a Premium Access to HBO Cinemax. HD/3D. Cloud. Hybrid Optic Fiber. High-speed Internet till 500Mbps. Interconnected Voice and Internet protocol technology (VoIP). Business advanced Voice and Ethernet networks. NBC TV broadcast Distributes programs in 50 States. DVD Blu-ray. Owns 10 local TV channels including New York, Los Angeles, Chicago. +100,000 episodes of popular programs. Produces its own programs. Broadcast rights for Olympic games. Telemundo reaches 59% of US Hispanic households. Turner Cable Network Provides diversified TV programs to cable system operators & satellite services distributors. Sports, cartoons, News on Demand. 77m US visitors/month. International: Baltics, Germany, Japan, Korea Latin American, Southern Asia Provides regional programs. Home Box Office Premium pay-TV: 127M subscribers in more than 151 countries. DVDs and licensing program. Digital content on various mobile devices.
  24. 24. PRODUCT DIFFERENTIATION Time Inc. Largest publisher of magazines in the US. 23 magazines such as: US People, InStyle, Time, Fortune. 70 magazines worldwide. Universal Film producer and distributor Library: 5,000 films. International. Universal Studios Amusement parks in Orlando and Hollywood. Intense use of intellectual properties. Universal Studios Japan and Singapore. Warner Bros Produces and distributes feature films, TV programs, video games and licensing rights, TV series, reality shows, talk shows in more than 125 countries. Library: 6,000 films. DC comics: Publish and distribute comics. 14,000 comics available on the digital platforms.
  25. 25. Orlando, FL, USA owned Osaka, JAPAN Licensed to USJ Co Ltd Singapore Run by Genting Group Hollywood, CA, USA owned Hwaseong, SOUTH KOREA Dubai UNITED ARAB EMIRATES Moscow RUSSIA 2018 Beijing CHINA 2019 THEME FUTURE THEME PARKS
  26. 26. Direct Broadcast Satellite Providers (DBS) Marketing arrangements with phone companies, DBS provide video services are sold together with the phone company’s internet and phone services Attracting new residential and business services customers Expanding the services to existing customers Promoting cable networks and costs associated with digital media Subscription primarily through direct mail solicitation Subscription sales agents Time Inc.’s owned websites Time Inc. has marketing agreements with other companies Insert cards in Time Inc.’s magazines and other publications Email solicitations and online advertising
  27. 27. Giving R&D credits to Network Technology to soon democratize 1 Terabit/sec Internet Speed Technical research on the development of open source software “A center of insight that incorporates cutting-edge technologies and research techniques providing an unmatched ability to test consumer engagement throughout the entire 360° media-to-retail experience.”
  28. 28. Most of the Advertising costs come from Warner Bros (movie trailers, prints, ads, etc.) 2200 2300 2400 2500 2600 2700 2800 2900 3000 3100 2011 2012 2013 TWX Advertising Costs ($Million) 20-25% 4,200 4,300 4,400 4,500 4,600 4,700 4,800 4,900 5,000 5,100 2011 2012 2013 CMCSA Advertising Costs ($million) Increasing Advertising Expenses to keep up with Competition
  29. 29. • Comcast is really present in the East Coast of the U.S. with 9 cities which have over 500,000 customers • Comcast is less present in the West Coast with only 3 major cities• Comcast has a huge open market to increase profit
  30. 30. - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 REVENUES 2013 REVENUES 2012 REVENUES 2011 21,411 20,729 20,634 4,956 4,575 5,1421,666 1,645 1,5991,534 1,346 1,358228 252 241 Revenues by Region For Time Warner United States and Canada Europe Asia/Pacific Rim Latin America All Other - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 REVENUES 2013 REVENUES 2012 REVENUES 2011 21,411 20,729 20,634 8,384 7,818 8,340 Revenues by Region For Time Warner United States and Canada Foreign and Other - 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 REVENUES 2013 REVENUES 2012 REVENUES 2011 59,857 58,070 51,742 4,800 4,500 4,100 Revenues by Region for Comcast United States and Canada Foreign and Other In $ Millions -6.3%+7.2% +0.5%+3.3% +6.7% +9.8% In $ Millions x2.5 x1.75 / x2.00
  31. 31. 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Revenues 2013 Revenues 2012 Revenues 2011 93% 93% 93% 7% 7% 7% % of Revenues by Region For Comcast United States and Canada Foreign and Other 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Revenues 2013 Revenues 2012 Revenues 2011 72% 73% 71% 28% 27% 29% % of Revenues by Region Time Warner United States and Canada Foreign and Other x4.1
  32. 32. - 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 9,000 5,420 5,378 5,840 2,260 1,568 In$Millions Revenues By Business Segment of Time Warner 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% TNT, TBS, CNN & OTHER HOME BOX OFFICE TV SHOW AND LICENSING WARNER BROS MOVIES CONSUMER PRODUCTS PUBLISHING 39.1% 39.1% 20.2% 15.6% 17.7% 18.4% Gross Margin By Business Segment of Time Warner - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 23,590 22,060 13,140 4,590 4,350 In$Millions Revenues By Business Segment of Comcast 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% NBC, COMCAST CONTENT & OTHER CABLE TV BROADBAND VOICE ADVERTISING & FRANCHISE FEE 22.4% 42.0% 41.6% 41.6% 41.6% Gross Margin By Revenue Segment of Comcast
  33. 33. Product Sales Mix (In $Millions) Revenues 2013 Sales Mix 2013 Revenues 2012 Sales Mix 2012 V$ 2013-2012 V% 2013-2012 Cable Communications 41 836 63,54% 39 604 62,10% 2 232 5,64% NBCUniversal 24 008 36,46% 24 171 37,90% -163 -0,67% Cable Networks 9 201 13,97% 8 727 13,68% 474 5,43% Broadcast Television 7 120 10,81% 8 200 12,86% -1 080 -13,17% Filmed Entertainment 5 452 8,28% 5 159 8,09% 293 5,68% Theme Parks 2 235 3,39% 2 085 3,27% 150 7,19% Total 65 844 100,00% 63 775 100,00% 2 069 3,24% Turner 9 983 32,69% 9 527 32,11% 456 4,79% Home Box Office 4 890 16,01% 4 686 15,80% 204 4,35% Warner Bros 12 312 40,32% 12 018 40,51% 294 2,45% Time Inc. 3 354 10,98% 3 436 11,58% -82 -2,39% Total 30 539 100,00% 29 667 100,00% 872 2,94% X2,16 X2,15 X2,37 Broadcasting Cable Networks
  34. 34. Product Sales Mix (In $Millions) Operating Margin % (ROS) 2013 Operating Margin % (ROS) 2012 Change in ROS 2013-2012 Cable Communications 25,84% 24,87% 0,97% NBCUniversal 17,44% 14,80% 2,64% Cable Networks 30,07% 29,43% 0,65% Broadcast Television 3,47% 3,18% 0,29% Filmed Entertainment 8,58% 1,22% 7,36% Theme Parks 31,50% 32,85% -1,35% Total 22,78% 21,05% 1,72% Turner 34,92% 33,29% 1,62% Home Box Office 36,63% 33,01% 3,61% Warner Bros 10,75% 10,22% 0,54% Time Inc. 10,05% 12,22% -2,18% Total 22,72% 21,46% 1,26% 25,84% 24,87% 31,50% 32,85% 30,07% 29,43% 34,92% 33,29% 36,63% 33,01% The two companies want to invest in these segments because the return is higher than in the others. Increase in costs to follow increase in capital expenditures.  Attract customers The Print industry is declining.  Less profitable Capital Expenditure mix (In $Millions) Capital Expenditures 2013 Capital Expenditures Mix 2013 Capital Expenditures 2012 Capital Expenditures Mix 2012 V$ 2013-2012 V% 2013-2012 Cable Communications 5403 88,23% 4921 90,88% 482 9,79% NBCUniversal 721 11,77% 494 9,12% 227 45,95% Cable Networks 67 1,09% 150 2,77% -83 -55,33% Broadcast Television 65 1,06% 65 1,20% 0 0,00% Filmed Entertainment 9 0,15% 7 0,13% 2 28,57% Theme Parks 580 9,47% 272 5,02% 308 113,24% Total 6124 100,00% 5415 100,00% 709 13,09% Turner 210 40,00% 229 38,29% -19 -8,30% Home Box Office 45 8,57% 65 10,87% -20 -30,77% Warner Bros 236 44,95% 270 45,15% -34 -12,59% Time Inc. 34 6,48% 34 5,69% 0 0,00% Total 525 100,00% 598 100,00% -73 -12,21% CapEx/Depreciation mix (In $Millions) Depreciation 2013 CapEx / Depreciation Mix 2013 Depreciation 2012 CapEx / Depreciation Mix 2012 V$ 2013-2012 V% 2013-2012 Cable Communications 6394 0,85 6405 0,77 -11 -0,17% NBCUniversal 1147 0,63 1116 0,44 31 2,78% Cable Networks 734 0,09 735 0,20 -1 -0,14% Broadcast Television 98 0,66 97 0,67 1 1,03% Filmed Entertainment 15 0,60 16 0,44 -1 -6,25% Theme Parks 300 1,93 268 1,01 32 11,94% Total 7541 0,81 7521 0,72 20 0,27% Turner 252 0,83 263 0,87 -11 -4,18% Home Box Office 100 0,45 92 0,71 8 8,70% Warner Bros 379 0,62 382 0,71 -3 -0,79% Time Inc. 127 0,27 127 0,27 0 0,00% Total 858 0,61 864 0,69 -6 -0,69% 5403 88,23% 4921 90,88% 482 9,79% 580 9,47% 272 5,02% 308 113,24% 67 1,09% 150 2,77% -83 -55,33% 210 40,00% 229 38,29% -19 -8,30% 45 8,57% 65 10,87% -20 -30,77% Most profitable segments are the ones the companies spend the most on. Only one segment in expansion: Comcast’s Theme Parks since CapEx/Dep mix > 1.00 Expenditures look small but it is because pay TV is less expensive to implant than other segments. It uses cloud-storing and streaming. This can explain the gap between the 2 companies in the movie war. 300 1,93 268 1,01 32 11,94% -15.00% -10.00% -5.00% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% Cable Communications NBCUniversal Cable Networks Broadcast Television Filmed Entertainment Theme Parks Total V% ROS V% Sales -15.00% -10.00% -5.00% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% Turner Home Box Office Warner Bros Time Inc. Total V% ROS V% Sales
  35. 35. 64% 14% 11% 8% 3% 62% 14% 13% 8% 3% 2013 COMCAST Product Sales Mix by Revenue 2012 COMCAST Product Sales Mix by Revenue
  36. 36. 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00% Cable Communications NBCUniversal Cable Networks Broadcast Television Filmed Entertainment Theme Parks Total In% 2013 Comcast ROS per segment 2013 COMCAST Product Sales Mix by Operating Income 72% 18% 2% 3% 5% 64% 14% 11% 8% 3% 2013 COMCAST Product Sales Mix by Revenue 88% 1% 1% 0% 10% 2013 COMCAST Capital Expenditures Mix 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00% Cable Communications NBCUniversal Cable Networks Broadcast Television Filmed Entertainment Theme Parks Total In% 2013 Comcast ROS per segment
  37. 37. 33% 16% 40% 11% 32%16% 40% 12% 2013 Time Warner Product Sales Mix by Revenue 2012 Time Warner Product Sales Mix by Revenuee
  38. 38. 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00% 40.00% Turner Home Box Office Warner Bros Time Inc. Total In% 2013 Time Warner ROS per segment 40%9% 45% 6% 50% 26% 19% 5% 2013 Time Warner Product Sales Mix by Operating Income 33% 16…40% 11% 2013 Time Warner Product Sales Mix by Revenue 2013 Time Warner Capital Expenditures Mix 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00% 40.00% Turner Home Box Office Warner Bros Time Inc. Total In% 2013 Time Warner ROS per segment
  39. 39. High Market Share & High Market Growth Low Market Share & High Market Growth High Market Share & Low Market Growth Low Market Share & Low Market Growth
  40. 40. Exhaustive Competition Analysis (in $millions except mentionned) DTV 2013 TWC 2013 CMCSA 2013 TWX 2013 DIS 2013 FOX 2013 CBS 2013 VIA 2013 DISCA 2013 Revenues 31 754 22 120 64 657 29 795 45 041 27 675 15 284 13 794 5 535 Cost of Goods Sold 16 642 10 342 19 670 16 230 35 591 17 496 8 813 6 799 1 689 Gross Profit 15 112 11 778 44 987 13 565 9 450 10 179 6 471 6 995 3 846 EBIT 5 150 4 580 13 563 6 605 9 236 5 327 3 259 3 836 1 998 Net Income 2 859 1 954 6 816 3 691 6 136 7 097 1 879 2 395 1 075 Total Assets 21 905 48 273 158 813 67 994 81 241 50 944 26 387 23 829 14 979 Inventory 283 - - 2 028 1 487 2 784 772 770 - Net Property, Plant & Equipment 9 117 15 056 29 840 3 825 22 380 2 829 2 236 1 040 514 Intangibles as % of Total Assets 22,32% 61,65% 65,35% 58,99% 42,71% 43,81% 56,82% 47,66% 72,03% Total Liabilities 28 449 41 330 108 119 38 090 35 812 33 946 16 421 18 636 8 783 Long-Term Debt 18 284 23 285 44 567 20 099 12 776 16 321 5 940 11 867 6 482 Total Equity -6 544 6 943 50 694 29 904 45 429 16 998 9 966 5 193 6 196 Operating Cash Flow Activities 6 394 5 753 14 160 3 714 9 452 3 002 1 873 3 083 1 285 Capital Expenditures -3 786 -3 238 -7 605 -602 -2 796 -622 -270 -160 -115 Free Cash Flow 2 608 2 515 6 555 3 112 6 656 2 380 1 603 2 923 1 170 Beta (units) 1,24 0,98 0,88 1,21 1,11 1,27 1,70 0,84 1,51 Gross Margin (%) 47,60% 53,20% 69,60% 45,50% 21,00% 36,80% 42,30% 50,70% 69,50% Return On Sales (%) 9,00% 8,83% 10,54% 12,39% 13,62% 25,64% 12,29% 17,36% 19,42% Return On Equity (%) 0,00% 27,48% 13,63% 12,35% 14,41% 34,05% 18,62% 37,89% 17,22% Debt / Assets (%) 129,87% 85,62% 68,08% 56,02% 44,08% 66,63% 62,23% 78,21% 58,64% Tax Rate (%) 35,72% 35,70% 35,81% 32,98% 31,02% 19,35% 33,76% 30,41% 37,96% EPS Growth Rate (%) 12,88% -2,90% 12,28% 26,86% 7,99% 544,68% 25,94% 31,17% 19,76% Price Earnings (units) 16,0 21,9 18,4 19,8 24,0 8,0 26,2 12,7 19,1 Stock Price ($) – March 20th, 2015 $69,06 $132,03 $51,10 $65,41 $75,44 $34,19 $63,01 $85,99 $46,20 Dividends Yield (%) 0,00% 1,97% 1,53% 1,76% 0,99% 0,50% 0,76% 1,34% 0,00% Market Capitalization ($M) 35 842 38 025 132 707 58 542 131 266 75 457 52 928 27 001 14 230 Employees (units) 31 700 51 600 136 000 34 000 180 000 27 000 19 490 9 900 5 700 Comcast and Disney have the highest revenues of the industry. Despite a long struggle, Time Warner still has one of the highest revenues. Comcast and Time Warner have the best gross profit of the industry thanks to very ingenious management of Costs of Goods Sold. Time Warner’s specific industry is more profitable than Comcast’s specific industry. Huge Assets for the industry due to past acquisitions and mergersNot a lot of Inventory in this industry as most of it is in non-current assets. Higher P&E for Cable companies because they need the space. Disney also because has a lot of Theme Parks. CMCSA, TWX and DIS have much more Assets, Liabilities and Owner’s Equity than Other Companies in the industry. Positive correlation between P&E and OCF. Same pattern as depreciation is higher due to more P&E. In red, companies are most likely to pay higher dividends because they engage less in expansion projects. All of the companies create a lot of opportunities though because FCF > 0 This industry is quite stable and remains positively correlated to the market. Entertainment businesses are more profitable than Cable / Pay TV businesses. Advantage or Disadvantage ? The more intangibles, the higher the risks of dilution. If the trend confirms, losses to come in value and in revenues due to yearly write-offs. The greener, the less risk. The redder, the more risk.  Capital Structures All of the companies have increased EPS, except TWC, so the conditions for Market Price of their stock to rise are good (excluding TWC). Price Earnings are in the average zone, except for FOX, VIA and CBS.  Investors are willing to investTWC, CMCSA, TWX attract investors more than other companies.  Better companies to invest in All companies are large caps.
  41. 41. 2013 One Day Income Statement (in millions of $) % % Total Revenue 180 100,0% 83 100,0% Cost of Goods Sold 55 30,4% 45 54,5% Gross Profit 125 69,6% 38 45,5% Costs and Expenses : Selling, General & Administrative 51 28,5% 9 10,9% Restructing & Severance Costs 0 0,2% 1 0,8% Advertising & Marketing Costs 14 7,7% 7 8,7% Depreciation 17 9,7% 2 2,6% Amortization 4 2,5% 1 0,8% Gain on Operating Assets, net - 0,0% 0 0,5% Total Costs and Expenses 87 48,6% 20 24,3% Operating Income (Loss) 38 21,0% 18 21,2% Income (Exp.) from Continuing Operations : Interest Expense -7 -4,0% -3 -4,0% Investment income (loss), net 2 0,9% - 0,0% Equity in net income (losses) of investees, net -0 -0,1% - 0,0% Other Income (Expense) -1 -0,6% -0 -0,4% Total Other Income (Loss) -7 -3,8% -4 -4,4% Income Before Income Tax 31 17,2% 14 16,8% Income Tax Expense -11 -6,2% -5 -5,9% Income From Continued Operations 20 11,0% 9 11,0% Discontinued Operations - 0,0% 0 0,5% Net Income 20 11,0% 9 11,4% Net Income (Loss) attributable to noncontrolling interests -1 -0,5% - 0,0% NET INCOME attributable to company 19 10,5% 9 11,4% X2.2 X2.6 -4.0% -4.0% 12.2% 3.4%
  42. 42. Comparative Income Statements (in millions of $) 2013 2012 V$ 2013-2012 V% 2013-2012 2013 2012 V$ 2013-2012 V% 2013-2012 Total Revenue 64 657 62 570 2 087 3,3% 29 795 28 729 1 066 3,7% Cost of Goods Sold 19 670 19 929 -259 -1,3% 16 230 15 934 296 1,9% Gross Profit 44 987 42 641 2 346 5,5% 13 565 12 795 770 6,0% Costs and Expenses : Selling, General & Administrative 18 424 17 678 746 4,2% 3 251 3 231 20 0,6% Restructing & Severance Costs 160 155 5 3,2% 246 119 127 106,7% Advertising & Marketing Costs 4 969 4 831 138 2,9% 2 579 2 458 121 4,9% Depreciation 6 254 6 150 104 1,7% 775 830 -55 -6,6% Amortization 1 617 1 648 -31 -1,9% 251 248 3 1,2% Gain on Operating Assets, net - - - 0,0% 142 9 133 1477,8% Total Costs and Expenses 31 424 30 462 962 3,2% 6 960 6 877 83 1,2% Operating Income (Loss) 13 563 12 179 1 384 11,4% 6 605 5 918 687 11,6% Income (Exp.) from Continuing Operations : Interest Expense -2 574 -2 521 -53 -2,1% -1 190 -1 253 63 5,0% Investment income (loss), net 576 219 357 163,0% - - - 0,0% Equity in net income (losses) of investees, net -86 959 -1 045 -109,0% - - - 0,0% Other Income (Expense) -364 773 -1 137 -147,1% -112 -217 105 48,4% Total Other Income (Loss) -2 448 -570 -1 878 -329,5% -1 302 -1 470 168 11,4% Income Before Income Tax 11 115 11 609 -494 -4,3% 5 303 4 448 855 19,2% Income Tax Expense -3 980 -3 744 -236 -6,3% -1 749 -1 526 -223 -14,6% Income From Continued Operations 7 135 7 865 -730 -9,3% 3 554 2 922 632 21,6% Discontinued Operations - - - - 137 - 137 - Net Income 7 135 7 865 -730 -9,3% 3 691 2 922 769 26,3% Net Income (Loss) attributable to noncontrolling interests -319 -1 662 1 343 80,8% - 3 -3 -100,0% NET INCOME attributable to company 6 816 6 203 613 9,9% 3 691 2 925 766 26,2% X2.2 X3.3 X2.2 X8.0 X6.5 X2.1 1st Assets Impairments decreased at Turner Co. Acquisition of real estate properties and increase in capital spending
  43. 43. Income Statement 5-Year Growth (in millions of $) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Average growth rate per year Revenue 34 256 35 756 37 937 55 842 62 570 64 657 R Growth - 4,4% 6,1% 47,2% 12,0% 3,3% 14,6% Gross Margin 60,7 59,7 59,8 62,8 68,1 69,6 GM Growth - -1,6% 0,2% 5,0% 8,4% 2,2% 2,8% Net Income 2 547 3 638 3 635 4 160 6 203 6 816 NI Growth - 42,8% -0,1% 14,4% 49,1% 9,9% 23,2% Revenue 46 984 25 785 26 888 28 974 28 729 29 795 R Growth - -45,1% 4,3% 7,8% -0,8% 3,7% -6,0% Gross Margin 41,9 44,0 44,1 43,7 44,5 45,5 GM Growth - 5,0% 0,2% -0,9% 1,8% 2,2% 1,7% Net Income -13 402 2 468 2 578 2 886 3 019 3 691 NI Growth - 118,4% 4,5% 11,9% 4,6% 22,3% 32,3%
  44. 44. Assets (In Millions of $) 2013 % 2012 % V $ 2013-2012 V % 2013-2012 2013 % 2012 % V $ 2013-2012 V % 2013-2012 Current Assets : Cash and Cash Equivalents 1 718 1% 10 951 7% -9 233 -84% 1 862 3% 2 841 4% -979 -34% STI 3 573 2% 1 464 1% 2 109 144% - 0% - 0% - 0% Receivables 6 376 4% 5 521 3% 855 15% 7 868 12% 7 385 11% 483 7% Inventories - 0% - 0% - 0% 2 028 3% 2 036 3% -8 0% Deferred Income Taxes - 0% - 0% - 0% 447 1% 474 1% -27 -6% Programming Rights 928 1% 909 1% 19 2% - 0% - 0% - 0% Other Current Assets 1 480 1% 1 146 1% 334 29% 639 1% 528 1% 111 21% Total Current Assets 14 075 9% 19 991 12% -5 916 -30% 12 844 19% 13 264 20% -420 -3% Non-Current assets : Film and Television Costs 4 994 3% 5 054 3% -60 -1% 6 699 10% 6 675 10% 24 0% Investments 3 770 2% 6 325 4% -2 555 -40% 2 024 3% 1 966 3% 58 3% Property and Equipment, net 29 840 19% 27 232 17% 2 608 10% 3 825 6% 3 942 6% -117 -3% Franchise Rights 59 364 37% 59 364 36% - 0% - 0% - 0% 0% Goodwill 27 098 17% 26 985 16% 113 0% 30 563 45% 30 446 45% 117 0% Other Intangible Assets, net 17 329 11% 17 840 11% -511 -3% 9 549 14% 9 750 14% -201 -2% Other Noncurrent Assets, net 2 343 1% 2 180 1% 163 7% 2 490 4% 2 046 3% 444 22% Total non-current assets 144 738 91% 144 980 88% -242 0% 55 150 81% 54 825 81% 325 1% TOTAL ASSETS 158 813 100% 164 971 100% -6 158 -4% 67 994 100% 68 089 100% -95 0% X2.3 -4% -30% 0%
  45. 45. 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 Evolution of Goodwill Comcast Time Warner Current Assets Fixed Assets Intangible Assets Liabilities Owner’s Equity $40 B $60 B $20 B Spread + $10.9 B from NBCU transaction Assets
  46. 46. Balance Sheet 5-Year Growth (In Millions of $) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Average growth rate per year Total Assets 122 733 118 534 157 818 164 971 158 813 TA Growth - -3,4% 33,1% 4,5% -3,7% 7,6% Total Liabilities 70 012 74 180 110 544 115 615 108 119 TL Growth - 6,0% 49,0% 4,6% -6,5% 13,3% Total Equity 42 721 44 354 47 274 49 356 50 694 TE Growth - 3,8% 6,6% 4,4% 2,7% 4,4% Total Assets 66 059 66 707 67 801 68 089 67 994 TA Growth - 1,0% 1,6% 0,4% -0,1% 0,7% Total Liabilities 32 662 33 762 37 847 38 292 38 090 TL Growth - 3,4% 12,1% 1,2% -0,5% 4,0% Total Equity 33 397 32 945 29 954 29 797 29 904 TE Growth - -1,4% -9,1% -0,5% 0,4% -2,6% X1.8 X5.7
  47. 47. -10.00% 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 2010 2011 2012 2013 33.10% Total Assets Growth Rate Comcast VS Time Warner Total Assets Growth Rate Comcast Total Asset Growth Rate Time Warner -20.00% 0.00% 20.00% 40.00% 60.00% 2010 2011 2012 2013 49.00% -6.50% Total Liabilities Growth Rate Comcast VS Time Warner Total Liabilities Growth Rate Comcast Total Liabilities Growth Rate Time Warner -10.00% -5.00% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 2010 2011 2012 2013 6.60% -9.10% Total Equity Growth Rate Comcast VS Time Warner Total Equity Growth Rate Comcast Total Equity Growth Rate Time Warner -5.00% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% Total Assets Total Liabilities Total Equity 13.30% -2.60% Average Growth Rate Per Year Comcast VS Time Warner Average Growth Rate Per Year Comcast Average Growth Rate Per Year Time Warner
  48. 48. Capital Expenditures 5-Year Growth (In Millions of $) 2009 V% 2010- 2009 2010 V% 2011- 2010 2011 V% 2012- 2011 2012 V% 2013- 2012 2013 Average growth rate per year Cable Distribution System 24 540 13,0% 27 727 3,8% 28 781 2,6% 29 528 3,3% 30 498 5,7% Building and Leasehold Improvements 1 937 2,3% 1 981 143,8% 4 830 13,2% 5 468 47,3% 8 057 51,7% Customer Premise Equipment 19 639 10,6% 21 716 8,5% 23 552 5,1% 24 763 4,8% 25 949 7,2% Land 206 -1,0% 204 352,5% 923 7,2% 989 9,6% 1 084 92,1% Other Equipement 5 343 -17,8% 4 392 36,6% 6 001 -1,5% 5 909 15,5% 6 826 8,2% Total Capital Expenditures 51 665 8,4% 56 020 14,4% 64 087 4,0% 66 657 8,6% 72 414 8,9% Furniture, fixtures and other equipment 3 221 3,6% 3 337 5,4% 3 518 0,7% 3 541 1,7% 3 600 2,8% Builings and Improvements 2 512 3,9% 2 610 2,5% 2 676 6,5% 2 851 2,4% 2 918 3,8% Capitalized Software Costs 1 445 10,5% 1 597 10,8% 1 770 5,6% 1 869 6,5% 1 990 8,4% Land 476 4,8% 499 0,6% 502 0,6% 505 0,2% 506 1,6% Total Capital Expenditures 7 654 5,1% 8 043 5,3% 8 466 3,5% 8 766 2,8% 9 014 4,2% X6.8 X7.6X7.0 X8.0X7.6X2.1
  49. 49. - 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 51,665 56,020 64,087 66,657 72,414 7,654 8,043 8,466 8,766 9,014 Comcast and Time Warner Capital Expenditures Total Capital Expenditures Comcast Total Capital Expenditures Time Warner In $ Millions 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% V% 2010-2009 V% 2011-2010 V% 2012-2011 V% 2013-2012 8.4% 14.4% 4.0% 8.6% 5.1% 5.3% 3.5% 2.8% Comcast and Time Warner 5-year Growth Capital Expenditures V% Total Capital Expenditures Comcast V% Total Capital Expenditures Time Warner +40.2% +17.8%
  50. 50. - 200 400 600 800 2014 2015-2016 2017-2018 Thereafter Operating Lease Payments Comcast Vs Time Warner Comcast Time Warner Leasing Expenditures (In Millions of $) 2014 2015-2016 2017-2018 Thereafter TOTAL Capital Lease Payments 7 11 5 14 37 Operating Lease Payments 385 628 458 673 2 144 Capital Lease Payments 15 24 22 20 81 Operating Lease Payments 410 721 502 277 1 910 - 5 10 15 20 25 30 2014 2015-2016 2017-2018 Thereafter Capital Lease Payments Comcast Vs Time Warner Capital Lease Payments Comcast Capital Lease Payments Time Warner X57.9 X23.6
  51. 51. Liabilities & Equity (in millions of $) 2013 % 2012 % V $ V % 2013 % 2012 % V $ V % Current Liabilities: Accounts Payable & Accrued liabilities 14 734 9% 13 487 8% 1 247 9% 7 322 11% 8 039 12% -717 -9% Deferred Revenue 898 1% 851 1% 47 6% 995 1% 1 011 1% -16 -2% Short-Term Debt 3 280 2% 2 376 1% 904 38% 66 0% 749 1% -683 -91% Total Current Liabilities 18 912 12% 16 714 10% 2 198 13% 8 383 12% 9 799 14% -1 416 -14% Non-Current Liabilities: Long-Term Debt 44 567 28% 38 082 23% 6 485 17% 20 099 30% 19 122 28% 977 5% Deferred Revenue & Income Taxes 31 935 20% 30 110 18% 1 825 6% 3 124 5% 2 650 4% 474 18% Other Non-Current Liabilities 11 384 7% 13 271 8% -1 887 -14% 6 484 10% 6 721 10% -237 -4% Redeemable noncontrolling interests & P-S 957 1% 16 998 10% -16 041 -94% - 0% - 0% - 0% Total Liabilities 107 755 68% 115 175 70% -7 420 -6% 38 090 56% 38 292 56% -202 -1% Equity: Common Stock 30 0% 31 0% -1 -3% 17 0% 17 0% - 0% Additional Paid-In-Capital 38 890 24% 40 547 25% -1 657 -4% 153 410 226% 154 577 227% -1 167 -1% Retained Earnings 19 235 12% 16 280 10% 2 955 18% -85 041 -125% -88 732 -130% 3 691 -4% Treasury Stock -7 517 -5% -7 517 -5% - 0% -37 630 -55% -35 077 -52% -2 553 7% Accumulated other comprehensive income (loss) 56 0% 15 0% 41 273% -852 -1% -989 -1% 137 -14% Total Shareholder's Equity 50 694 32% 49 356 30% 1 338 3% 29 904 44% 29 796 44% 108 0% Noncontrolling Interests 364 0% 440 0% -76 -17% - 0% 1 0% -1 -100% Total Equity 51 058 32% 49 796 30% 1 262 3% 29 904 44% 29 797 44% 107 0% TOTAL LIABILITIES & EQUITY 158 813 100% 164 971 100% -6 158 -4% 67 994 100% 68 089 100% -95 0% X2.8 X1.7 X10.0
  52. 52. • 26 bonds for a Market Value of $34.2B • 28 bonds for a Market Value of $26.5B • They issue big bonds  they have a big power over the market • They issue smaller bonds they do not have the same power over the market • Average Cost of Capital = R.R.R 10.5% • Higher than Km • Attract ShareHolder seeking risk • Average Cost of Capital = R.R.R 7.67% • Smaller than Km • Attract Risk Averse ShareHolder
  53. 53. - 10 000 20 000 30 000 40 000 50 000 60 000 70 000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 In$millions Years Comcast Revenue and Net Income for the last six years Revenue Net Income -20 000 -10 000 - 10 000 20 000 30 000 40 000 50 000 60 000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 In$millions Years Time Warner Revenue and Net Income for the last six years Revenue Net Income
  54. 54. 58.0 60.0 62.0 64.0 66.0 68.0 70.0 72.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 In% Years Comcast Gross Margin for the past six years 41.5 42.0 42.5 43.0 43.5 44.0 44.5 45.0 45.5 46.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 In% Years Time Warner Gross Margin for the past six years Crisis Context Crisis Context Expansion Expansion
  55. 55. - 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000 14 000 16 000 18 000 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 15 310 16 270 16 151 16 926 6 939 7 435 6 856 8 565 In$millions Comcast and Time Warner 2013 revenues per quarter Comcast Time Warner 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 23.7% 25.2% 25.0% 26.2% 23.3% 25.0% 23.0% 28.7% In% Comcast and Time Warner 2013 %revenues per quarter Comcast Time Warner
  56. 56. - 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 1 600 1 800 2 000 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 1 437 1 734 1 732 1 913 754 771 1 183 983 In$millions Comcast and Time Warner 2013 Net Income per quarter Comcast Time Warner 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 21.1% 25.4% 25.4% 28.1% 20.4% 20.9% 32.1% 26.6% In% Comcast and Time Warner 2013 %Net Income per quarter Comcast Time Warner
  57. 57. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 In% CMCSA COGS & Gross Margin as a % of Sales COGS Gross Margin 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 In% TWX COGS & Gross Margin as a % of Sales COGS Gross Margin -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 In% ROA ROE ROIC 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 In% ROA ROE ROIC In 2008, TWX recorded asset impairments of $7B! Decline in value of Goodwill in the Publishing segment. STABILITY Average COGS 56.7% Gross Margin 46% Since 2010, COGS decreases and Gross Margin increases 10Y PROFITABILITY
  58. 58. 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Current Ratio Quick Ratio 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Financial Leverage Debt/Equity 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Current Ratio Quick Ratio 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Financial Leverage Debt/Equity CMCSA is less liquid than TWX RATIO UNDER 1 CMCSA used more debt than TWX to finance its operations. HIGHER FINANCIAL RISK 10Y FINANCIAL HEALTH Operations are financed with investors money.
  59. 59. Comparative 2-year Ratios 2013 2012 % change B/W 2013 2012 % change B/W Current Ratio 0,74 1,20 -38% W 1,53 1,35 13% B Quick Ratio 0,74 1,20 -38% W 1,29 1,15 13% B Gross Margin 69,6% 68,1% 2% B 45,5% 44,5% 2% B Return On Sales 10,5% 9,9% 6% B 12,4% 10,2% 22% B Return On Assets 4,3% 3,8% 14% B 5,4% 4,3% 26% B Return On Equity 13,4% 12,6% 7% B 12,3% 9,8% 26% B Days Sales Outstanding 36 32 12% W 95 93 3% W Inventory Carrying Days 0 0 - W 45 46 -2% B Account Payable Days 101 112 -10% W 162 182 -11% W Cash Conversion Cycle -66 -80 18% W -22 -43 48% W Receivable Turnover 10,1 11,3 -11% W 3,8 3,9 -3% W Inventory Turnover - - - - 8,0 7,8 2% B Total Asset Turnover 0,41 0,38 7% B 0,44 0,42 4% B Payables Turnover 3,6 3,2 11% W 2,2 2,0 12% W Revenues Per Employee 475 419 485 039 -2% W 876 324 844 971 4% B Net Income Per Employee 50 118 48 085 4% B 108 559 86 029 26% B Equity Multiplier 3,11 3,31 -6% B 2,27 2,29 0% B Debt / Assets 68% 70% -3% B 56% 56% 0% B Debt / Equity 2,11 2,31 -9% B 1,27 1,29 -1% B Times Interest Earned 5,27 4,83 9% B 5,55 4,72 18% B Degree Of Operating Leverage 3,41 1,13 202% W 3,13 -2,30 236% B Degree Of Financial Leverage 1,06 3,93 -73% B 2,6 1,8 45% W Degree Of Total Leverage 3,63 4,43 -18% B 8,3 -4,2 298% B Earnings Per Share $2,60 $2,32 12% B $3,92 $3,00 31% B Dividend Per Share $0,78 $0,65 20% B $1,15 $1,04 11% B Dividend Yield 1,5% 1,8% -15% W 1,8% 2,4% -26% W Dividend Payout 30,0% 28,1% 7% B 29,4% 34,7% -15% W Price Earnings 19,68 15,59 26% B 16,70 14,69 14% B Price To Book 2,60 1,91 36% B 1,96 1,38 42% B Market Capitalization 132 707 95 268 39% B 58 542 41 017 43% B
  60. 60. C.A:$13,264 C.L:$9,799 1.20 1.35 INVENTORY: $2,036 1.20 1.15 NO INVENTORY In Million Comcast’s Inventory is in fact in Long-Term Assets as they prefer to amortize movie costs for example on long periods of time.
  61. 61. C.A:$12,984 C.L:$8,383 0.74 1.53 INVENTORY: $2,028 0.74 1.29 NO INVENTORY In Million Huge decrease ! The more Inventory, the Lower the Quick Ratio, Comcast tops this ratio by placing Inventory in Long-Term Assets.
  62. 62. Comparative 2-year Ratios 2013 2012 % change B/W 2013 2012 % change B/W Current Ratio 0,74 1,20 -38% W 1,53 1,35 13% B Quick Ratio 0,74 1,20 -38% W 1,29 1,15 13% B Gross Margin 69,6% 68,1% 2% B 45,5% 44,5% 2% B Return On Sales 10,5% 9,9% 6% B 12,4% 10,2% 22% B Return On Assets 4,3% 3,8% 14% B 5,4% 4,3% 26% B Return On Equity 13,4% 12,6% 7% B 12,3% 9,8% 26% B Days Sales Outstanding 36 32 12% W 95 93 3% W Inventory Carrying Days 0 0 - W 45 46 -2% B Account Payable Days 101 112 -10% W 162 182 -11% W Cash Conversion Cycle -66 -80 18% W -22 -43 48% W Receivable Turnover 10,1 11,3 -11% W 3,8 3,9 -3% W Inventory Turnover - - - - 8,0 7,8 2% B Total Asset Turnover 0,41 0,38 7% B 0,44 0,42 4% B Payables Turnover 3,6 3,2 11% W 2,2 2,0 12% W Revenues Per Employee 475 419 485 039 -2% W 876 324 844 971 4% B Net Income Per Employee 50 118 48 085 4% B 108 559 86 029 26% B Equity Multiplier 3,11 3,31 -6% B 2,27 2,29 0% B Debt / Assets 68% 70% -3% B 56% 56% 0% B Debt / Equity 2,11 2,31 -9% B 1,27 1,29 -1% B Times Interest Earned 5,27 4,83 9% B 5,55 4,72 18% B Degree Of Operating Leverage 3,41 1,13 202% W 3,13 -2,30 236% B Degree Of Financial Leverage 1,06 3,93 -73% B 2,6 1,8 45% W Degree Of Total Leverage 3,63 4,43 -18% B 8,3 -4,2 298% B Earnings Per Share $2,60 $2,32 12% B $3,92 $3,00 31% B Dividend Per Share $0,78 $0,65 20% B $1,15 $1,04 11% B Dividend Yield 1,5% 1,8% -15% W 1,8% 2,4% -26% W Dividend Payout 30,0% 28,1% 7% B 29,4% 34,7% -15% W Price Earnings 19,68 15,59 26% B 16,70 14,69 14% B Price To Book 2,60 1,91 36% B 1,96 1,38 42% B Market Capitalization 132 707 95 268 39% B 58 542 41 017 43% B
  63. 63. 45%55% 2012 Gross Margin CGS 46%54% 2013 Gross Margin CGS 70% 30% 2013 Gross Margin CGS 68% 32% 2012 Gross Margin CGS X1.5
  64. 64. 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 2013 2012 10.5% 9.9% 12.4% 10.2% R.O.S. Comcast Time Warner 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 2013 2012 4.3% 3.8% 5.4% 4.3% R.O.A. Comcast Time Warner 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 2013 2012 13.4% 12.6%12.3% 9.8% R.O.E. Comcast Time Warner +14%
  65. 65. Comparative 2-year Dupont Equation Year Equity Multiplier x Total Assets Turnover x Return On Sales = Return On Equity 2013 3,11 x 0,41 x 10,5% = 13,3% 2012 3,31 x 0,38 x 9,9% = 12,5% 2013 2,27 x 0,44 x 12,4% = 12,3% 2012 2,29 x 0,42 x 10,2% = 9,8%
  66. 66. - 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 2013 2012 2013 2012 Comcast Time Warner 3.11 3.31 2.27 2.29 -6.0% -0.5% X0,73 X0,69
  67. 67. Comparative 2-year Ratios 2013 2012 % change B/W 2013 2012 % change B/W Current Ratio 0,74 1,20 -38% W 1,53 1,35 13% B Quick Ratio 0,74 1,20 -38% W 1,29 1,15 13% B Gross Margin 69,6% 68,1% 2% B 45,5% 44,5% 2% B Return On Sales 10,5% 9,9% 6% B 12,4% 10,2% 22% B Return On Assets 4,3% 3,8% 14% B 5,4% 4,3% 26% B Return On Equity 13,4% 12,6% 7% B 12,3% 9,8% 26% B Days Sales Outstanding 36 32 12% W 95 93 3% W Inventory Carrying Days 0 0 - W 45 46 -2% B Account Payable Days 101 112 -10% W 162 182 -11% W Cash Conversion Cycle -66 -80 18% W -22 -43 48% W Receivable Turnover 10,1 11,3 -11% W 3,8 3,9 -3% W Inventory Turnover - - - - 8,0 7,8 2% B Total Asset Turnover 0,41 0,38 7% B 0,44 0,42 4% B Payables Turnover 3,6 3,2 11% W 2,2 2,0 12% W Revenues Per Employee 475 419 485 039 -2% W 876 324 844 971 4% B Net Income Per Employee 50 118 48 085 4% B 108 559 86 029 26% B Equity Multiplier 3,11 3,31 -6% B 2,27 2,29 0% B Debt / Assets 68% 70% -3% B 56% 56% 0% B Debt / Equity 2,11 2,31 -9% B 1,27 1,29 -1% B Times Interest Earned 5,27 4,83 9% B 5,55 4,72 18% B Degree Of Operating Leverage 3,41 1,13 202% W 3,13 -2,30 236% B Degree Of Financial Leverage 1,06 3,93 -73% B 2,6 1,8 45% W Degree Of Total Leverage 3,63 4,43 -18% B 8,3 -4,2 298% B Earnings Per Share $2,60 $2,32 12% B $3,92 $3,00 31% B Dividend Per Share $0,78 $0,65 20% B $1,15 $1,04 11% B Dividend Yield 1,5% 1,8% -15% W 1,8% 2,4% -26% W Dividend Payout 30,0% 28,1% 7% B 29,4% 34,7% -15% W Price Earnings 19,68 15,59 26% B 16,70 14,69 14% B Price To Book 2,60 1,91 36% B 1,96 1,38 42% B Market Capitalization 132 707 95 268 39% B 58 542 41 017 43% B
  68. 68. DSO 36 days Cash Conversion Cycle -65 days Collect Accounts Receivables Accounts Payable Days 101 Days Paying Suppliers (Cash out) -70 days 32 days 112 Days
  69. 69. ICD 45 days Days Sales Outstanding 95 days Cash Conversion Cycle -22 days Collect Accounts Receivables Accounts Payable Days 165 Days Sell Finished Goods Paying Suppliers (Cash out)46 days 93 days 183 Days -43 days
  70. 70. Comparative 2-year Ratios 2013 2012 % change B/W 2013 2012 % change B/W Current Ratio 0,74 1,20 -38% W 1,53 1,35 13% B Quick Ratio 0,74 1,20 -38% W 1,29 1,15 13% B Gross Margin 69,6% 68,1% 2% B 45,5% 44,5% 2% B Return On Sales 10,5% 9,9% 6% B 12,4% 10,2% 22% B Return On Assets 4,3% 3,8% 14% B 5,4% 4,3% 26% B Return On Equity 13,4% 12,6% 7% B 12,3% 9,8% 26% B Days Sales Outstanding 36 32 12% W 95 93 3% W Inventory Carrying Days 0 0 - W 45 46 -2% B Account Payable Days 101 112 -10% W 162 182 -11% W Cash Conversion Cycle -66 -80 18% W -22 -43 48% W Receivable Turnover 10,1 11,3 -11% W 3,8 3,9 -3% W Inventory Turnover - - - - 8,0 7,8 2% B Total Asset Turnover 0,41 0,38 7% B 0,44 0,42 4% B Payables Turnover 3,6 3,2 11% W 2,2 2,0 12% W Revenues Per Employee 475 419 485 039 -2% W 876 324 844 971 4% B Net Income Per Employee 50 118 48 085 4% B 108 559 86 029 26% B Equity Multiplier 3,11 3,31 -6% B 2,27 2,29 0% B Debt / Assets 68% 70% -3% B 56% 56% 0% B Debt / Equity 2,11 2,31 -9% B 1,27 1,29 -1% B Times Interest Earned 5,27 4,83 9% B 5,55 4,72 18% B Degree Of Operating Leverage 3,41 1,13 202% W 3,13 -2,30 236% B Degree Of Financial Leverage 1,06 3,93 -73% B 2,6 1,8 45% W Degree Of Total Leverage 3,63 4,43 -18% B 8,3 -4,2 298% B Earnings Per Share $2,60 $2,32 12% B $3,92 $3,00 31% B Dividend Per Share $0,78 $0,65 20% B $1,15 $1,04 11% B Dividend Yield 1,5% 1,8% -15% W 1,8% 2,4% -26% W Dividend Payout 30,0% 28,1% 7% B 29,4% 34,7% -15% W Price Earnings 19,68 15,59 26% B 16,70 14,69 14% B Price To Book 2,60 1,91 36% B 1,96 1,38 42% B Market Capitalization 132 707 95 268 39% B 58 542 41 017 43% B
  71. 71. 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 2013 2012 0.41 0.38 0.44 0.42 Comcast Time Warner +4% +7% +3.3% -4%
  72. 72. 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 2013 2012 0.41 0.38 0.44 0.42 +4% +7%
  73. 73. - 100 000 200 000 300 000 400 000 500 000 600 000 700 000 800 000 900 000 2013 2012 475 419 485 039 876 324 844 971 In$ Axis Title Comcast Time Warner
  74. 74. 50 118 108 559 48 085 86 029 - 20 000 40 000 60 000 80 000 100 000 120 000 140 000 2011 2012 2013 2014 IN$MILLIONS Comcast Time Warner Comcast Time Warner x1.8 x2.2
  75. 75. Comparative 2-year Ratios 2013 2012 % change B/W 2013 2012 % change B/W Current Ratio 0,74 1,20 -38% W 1,53 1,35 13% B Quick Ratio 0,74 1,20 -38% W 1,29 1,15 13% B Gross Margin 69,6% 68,1% 2% B 45,5% 44,5% 2% B Return On Sales 10,5% 9,9% 6% B 12,4% 10,2% 22% B Return On Assets 4,3% 3,8% 14% B 5,4% 4,3% 26% B Return On Equity 13,4% 12,6% 7% B 12,3% 9,8% 26% B Days Sales Outstanding 36 32 12% W 95 93 3% W Inventory Carrying Days 0 0 - W 45 46 -2% B Account Payable Days 101 112 -10% W 162 182 -11% W Cash Conversion Cycle -66 -80 18% W -22 -43 48% W Receivable Turnover 10,1 11,3 -11% W 3,8 3,9 -3% W Inventory Turnover - - - - 8,0 7,8 2% B Total Asset Turnover 0,41 0,38 7% B 0,44 0,42 4% B Payables Turnover 3,6 3,2 11% W 2,2 2,0 12% W Revenues Per Employee 475 419 485 039 -2% W 876 324 844 971 4% B Net Income Per Employee 50 118 48 085 4% B 108 559 86 029 26% B Equity Multiplier 3,11 3,31 -6% B 2,27 2,29 0% B Debt / Assets 68% 70% -3% B 56% 56% 0% B Debt / Equity 2,11 2,31 -9% B 1,27 1,29 -1% B Times Interest Earned 5,27 4,83 9% B 5,55 4,72 18% B Degree Of Operating Leverage 3,41 1,13 202% W 3,13 -2,30 236% B Degree Of Financial Leverage 1,06 3,93 -73% B 2,6 1,8 45% W Degree Of Total Leverage 3,63 4,43 -18% B 8,3 -4,2 298% B Earnings Per Share $2,60 $2,32 12% B $3,92 $3,00 31% B Dividend Per Share $0,78 $0,65 20% B $1,15 $1,04 11% B Dividend Yield 1,5% 1,8% -15% W 1,8% 2,4% -26% W Dividend Payout 30,0% 28,1% 7% B 29,4% 34,7% -15% W Price Earnings 19,68 15,59 26% B 16,70 14,69 14% B Price To Book 2,60 1,91 36% B 1,96 1,38 42% B Market Capitalization 132 707 95 268 39% B 58 542 41 017 43% B
  76. 76. Comparative 2-yearRatios 2013 2012 %change B/W 2013 2012 %change B/W EquityMultiplier 3.11 3.31 -6% B 2.27 2.29 0% B Debt/Assets 68% 70% -3% B 56% 56% 0% B Debt/Equity 2.11 2.31 -9% B 1.27 1.29 -1% B TimesInterestEarned 5.27 4.83 9% B 5.55 4.72 18% B 2.11 2.31 5.27 4.83 5.55 4.72 The higher the better Risky Stable
  77. 77. - 20 000 40 000 60 000 80 000 100 000 120 000 140 000 160 000 180 000 2013 2012 Comcast 158 813 164 971 107 755 115 175 Assets Debt 2013 2012 Time Warner 67 994 68 090 38 090 38 292 Assets Debt 56% -6.4% 68% 56% 70% -3.7% Time Warner Debt/Assets Ratio remains 56% Stable! Less risk for sharholders Huge amount of Debt! Big decrease in Liabilities because of the repayment of the 49% interest of NBCU hold by GE. A total amount of $16.7B including a cash payment of $11.4B (in $Millions)
  78. 78. 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 2013 2012 2.11 2.31 1.27 1.29 Comcast Time Warner Normally around 1 Normally around 1 Stable & Near 1 -9% -1% High and Unstable
  79. 79. 4.20 4.40 4.60 4.80 5.00 5.20 5.40 5.60 2013 2012 5.27 4.83 5.55 4.72 Comcast Time Warner Operating Income Interest Expense TIE Operating Income Interest Expense TIE x2 +11.4% +2,1% -5.0% +11.6%
  80. 80. DOL x DFL = DTL Time Warner Comcast DOL -0.94 X DOL 4.39 X DFL 1.00 DTL 4.39 = DFL -6.41 DTL 6.03 = ? DOL = rEBIT/rSales For every 1% change in Sales, EBIT will move by 3.41%/3.13% DFL = rEPS/rEBIT For every 1% change in EBIT, EPS will move by 1.06%/1.41% DTL = DOL x DFL For every 1% change in Sales, EPS will move by 3.63%/4.41% -> CMCSA is more volatile
  81. 81. Comparative 2-year Ratios 2013 2012 % change B/W 2013 2012 % change B/W Current Ratio 0,74 1,20 -38% W 1,53 1,35 13% B Quick Ratio 0,74 1,20 -38% W 1,29 1,15 13% B Gross Margin 69,6% 68,1% 2% B 45,5% 44,5% 2% B Return On Sales 10,5% 9,9% 6% B 12,4% 10,2% 22% B Return On Assets 4,3% 3,8% 14% B 5,4% 4,3% 26% B Return On Equity 13,4% 12,6% 7% B 12,3% 9,8% 26% B Days Sales Outstanding 36 32 12% W 95 93 3% W Inventory Carrying Days 0 0 - W 45 46 -2% B Account Payable Days 101 112 -10% W 162 182 -11% W Cash Conversion Cycle -66 -80 18% W -22 -43 48% W Receivable Turnover 10,1 11,3 -11% W 3,8 3,9 -3% W Inventory Turnover - - - - 8,0 7,8 2% B Total Asset Turnover 0,41 0,38 7% B 0,44 0,42 4% B Payables Turnover 3,6 3,2 11% W 2,2 2,0 12% W Revenues Per Employee 475 419 485 039 -2% W 876 324 844 971 4% B Net Income Per Employee 50 118 48 085 4% B 108 559 86 029 26% B Equity Multiplier 3,11 3,31 -6% B 2,27 2,29 0% B Debt / Assets 68% 70% -3% B 56% 56% 0% B Debt / Equity 2,11 2,31 -9% B 1,27 1,29 -1% B Times Interest Earned 5,27 4,83 9% B 5,55 4,72 18% B Degree Of Operating Leverage 3,41 1,13 202% W 3,13 -2,30 236% B Degree Of Financial Leverage 1,06 3,93 -73% B 2,6 1,8 45% W Degree Of Total Leverage 3,63 4,43 -18% B 8,3 -4,2 298% B Earnings Per Share $2,60 $2,32 12% B $3,92 $3,00 31% B Dividend Per Share $0,78 $0,65 20% B $1,15 $1,04 11% B Dividend Yield 1,5% 1,8% -15% W 1,8% 2,4% -26% W Dividend Payout 30,0% 28,1% 7% B 29,4% 34,7% -15% W Price Earnings 19,68 15,59 26% B 16,70 14,69 14% B Price To Book 2,60 1,91 36% B 1,96 1,38 42% B Market Capitalization 132 707 95 268 39% B 58 542 41 017 43% B
  82. 82. 2013 2012 % change B/W 2013 2012 % change B/W EPS 2,60$ 2,32$ 12% B 3,77$ 3,24$ 16% B DPS 0,78$ 0,65$ 20% B 1,15$ 1,04$ 11% B Dividend Yield 1,5% 1,8% -15% W 1,8% 2,4% -26% W Dividend Payout 30,0% 28,1% 7% B 30,5% 32,1% -5% W P/E 19,68 15,59 26% B 17,35 13,58 28% B PriceTo Book 2,61 1,91 36% B 1,96 1,38 42% B MarketCap 133218 95268 40% B 58542 41017 43% B Comparative 2-year Ratios Market Valuation Let’s talk EPS TWX higher EPS + h more = profitability Investors seek HIGH EPS: Dividend h or Company Expansion DPS Profit distribution to shareholders h means Company expects future growth CMCSA DPS has h more Both DPS h Dividend Paid h Number of share outstanding $ Let’s talk NI h Nb Outstanding Shares $ $- $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 +20% +11% $- $1.00 $2.00 $3.00 $4.00 +12% +16% -4% +9%
  83. 83. 2013 2012 % change B/W 2013 2012 % change B/W EPS 2,60$ 2,32$ 12% B 3,77$ 3,24$ 16% B DPS 0,78$ 0,65$ 20% B 1,15$ 1,04$ 11% B Dividend Yield 1,5% 1,8% -15% W 1,8% 2,4% -26% W Dividend Payout 30,0% 28,1% 7% B 30,5% 32,1% -5% W P/E 19,68 15,59 26% B 17,35 13,58 28% B PriceTo Book 2,61 1,91 36% B 1,96 1,38 42% B MarketCap 133218 95268 40% B 58542 41017 43% B Comparative 2-year Ratios Market Valuation Let’s talk Almost same level of stock profitability HOWEVER CMCSA ratio h TWX ratio $ Dividend Yield Return on Investment of a stock. The higher the better TWX highest Div Yield Both DY $ Dividend Paid h Share price h Share price (CMCSA +41% TWX +48%) offset Dividend (CMCSA +19% TWX +6%) Dividend Payout Dividend paid as a % of NI High DP = profitable stock Low DP = Company expansion -0.3% CMCSA Dividend Paid h19% Net Income h9.9% TWX Dividend Paid h6% Net Income h26% -0.5% Let’s talk 26.0% 28.0% 30.0% 32.0% 34.0% COMCAST TIME WARNER
  84. 84. 2013 2012 % change B/W 2013 2012 % change B/W EPS 2,60$ 2,32$ 12% B 3,77$ 3,24$ 16% B DPS 0,78$ 0,65$ 20% B 1,15$ 1,04$ 11% B Dividend Yield 1,5% 1,8% -15% W 1,8% 2,4% -26% W Dividend Payout 30,0% 28,1% 7% B 30,5% 32,1% -5% W P/E 19,68 15,59 26% B 17,35 13,58 28% B PriceTo Book 2,61 1,91 36% B 1,96 1,38 42% B MarketCap 133218 95268 40% B 58542 41017 43% B Comparative 2-year Ratios Market Valuation Let’s talk Price Earning +2.33 How much an investor is willing to pay for each dollar of earnings. CMCSA Stock price h41% EPS h12% TWX Stock Price h48% Bullish trend Let’s talk Price to Book Effectiveness in generating value for its shareholders’ investment +0.65 CMCSA Stock Price h 41% Book value/share h3.3% TWX Stock Price h48% Book value/share h2.2% CMCSA most attractive stock Let’s talk Market Capitalization CMCSA: Stock Price h41% / Nb Share Out h1.2% Stock Price 34x more important than Nb Shares TWX: Stock Price h48% / Nb Share Out h4% Stock Price 12x more important than Nb Shares Both Market cap grew bigger from 2012 to 2013 133133 X2.3 95 415858
  85. 85. 4.22%Time Warner Inc 5.88% $87.89 4.40% 17.35 Higher than the industry median EPS Growth of industry is low. Not attractive But CMCSA and TWX are high. Overall decrease in stock prices TWX has increased CMCSA high return TWX low return Investing in this industry was profitable Investors are willing to pay more for CMCSA than TWX. Both are above the industry median
  86. 86. Time Warner Inc n/a n/a n/a n/a There were less cable subscribers in 2014 compared to 2013. CMCSA suffered from the 2nd biggest loss General increase in number of internet subscribers CMCSA highest growth of number of subscribers CMCSA has 3x more cable subscribers than the Industry median Biggest competitor is DirectTV CMCSA has 8.7x more internet subscribers than the Industry median Biggest competitor is TWC CMCSA surpasses the Industry competition by doing great in both sectors.
  87. 87. Time Warner Inc $72,994 $29,466 $67,994 CMCSA represents more than ¼ of the industry CMCSA has the biggest market cap TWX 2nd biggest CMCSA 2 times bigger than TWX And its competitors 3.4x bigger than Time Warner Cable CMCSA generates 5x more sales than the average industry TWX 2.5x less sales than CMCSA But 2.3x more sales than industry CMCSA and TWX has the two biggest amount of Total Assets in the industry.
  88. 88. Comparative Cash Flow Statements OPERATING: Net Income 6816 3691 Depreciation Expense 6254 775 Increase in Accounts Receivable -855 -483 Increase in Inventory 0 8 Increase in Other Current Assets -353 -84 Increase in Film & Production Costs 60 -24 Increase in Other Non-Current Assets -163 -444 Decrease in Accounts Payable & Accrued Liabilities 1247 -717 Decrease in Non-Current Liabilities -1887 -237 Increase in Long-Term Deferred Revenue & Income Taxes 1825 474 TOTAL CHANGE IN OPERATING ACTIVITIES 12944 2959 INVESTING: Net (Purchase) Sale of Short-Term Investments -2109 0 Sale of Long-Term Investment 2555 -58 Net Purchases of Fixed Assets -8862 -658 Net Purchases of Intangibles 398 84 Loss (Gain) on Long-Term Investment 41 137 Loss (Gain) on Noncontrolling Interests -76 -1 Loss (Gain) on Redeemable Interest -16041 0 TOTAL CHANGE IN INVESTING ACTIVITIES -24094 -496 FINANCING: Retirement of Common Stock -1 0 Additional Paid-In-Capital -1657 -1167 Net (Purchase) of Treasury Stock 0 -2553 Dividend Payment -3861 0 Issuance of Long-Term Debt 6485 977 Issuance (Retirement) of Short-Term Debt 951 -699 TOTAL CHANGE IN FINANCING ACTIVITIES 1917 -3442 CHANGE IN CASH POSITION -9233 -979 Net Income 6816 3691 x1.8 Depreciation Expense 6254 775 x8.0 TOTAL CHANGE IN OPERATING ACTIVITIES 12944 2959 x4.3 Depreciation Expense Net Income Net Purchases of Fixed Assets -8862 -658 x13.5 Sale of Long-Term Investment 2555 Net (Purchase) Sale of Short-Term Investments -2109 TOTAL CHANGE IN INVESTING ACTIVITIES -24094 -496 x50 Issuance of Long-Term Debt 6485 977 x6.5CHANGE IN CASH POSITION -9233 -979 X9.4
  89. 89. In $Millions 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Operating Cash Flow 4 922 6 618 8 792 10 231 10 281 11 179 14 345 14 854 14 160 Capital Spending 3 621 4 701 6 564 6 277 5 639 5 497 6 261 6 637 7 605 Free Cash Flow 1 301 1 917 2 228 3 954 4 642 5 682 8 084 8 217 6 555 Working Capital - 3 675 - 2 238 - 4 285 - 5 223 - 4 026 652 - 4 668 3 277 - 4 837 V% 2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 Operating Cash Flow 34% 33% 16% 0% 9% 28% 4% -5% Capital Spending 30% 40% -4% -10% -3% 14% 6% 15% Free Cash Flow 47% 16% 77% 17% 22% 42% 2% -20% In $Millions 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Operating Cash Flow 4 965 8 598 8 475 10 332 4 709 3 290 3 432 3 442 3 714 Capital Spending 3 246 4 141 4 430 4 377 561 631 772 643 602 Free Cash Flow 1 719 4 457 4 045 5 955 4 148 2 659 2 660 2 799 3 112 Working Capital 875 - 1 929 258 2 626 4 242 4 495 4 510 3 459 4 461 V% 2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 Operating Cash Flow 73% -1% 22% -54% -30% 4% 0% 8% Capital Spending 28% 7% -1% -87% 12% 22% -17% -6% Free Cash Flow 159% -9% 47% -30% -36% 0% 5% 11% Always increasing their Operating Cash Flow and Free Cash Flow except… 14 160 -5% 6 555 -20% In 2013, where they have had a decline in their operating activities.They have increased their percentage of FCF to OCF 1 301 4 922 26% 14 160 6 555 46% Operating Cash Flow and Free Cash Flow not stable -54%-1% -30%73% 4% 0% 8%22% 159% 47% 0% 5% 11%-36%-30%-9% What happened ? Spin off between Time Warner and AOL and Time Warner CableTime Warner alone generates a huge amount of Free Cash Flow 1 719 4 965 35% 3 112 3 714 87% 3 621 7 605 4 922 14 160
  90. 90. -10,000 -5,000 - 5,000 10,000 15,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Operating Cash Flow Capital Spending Free Cash Flow Working Capital -2,000 - 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Operating Cash Flow Capital Spending Free Cash Flow Working Capital Same Growth Rate! OPCF of Time Warner Higher than Comcast OPCF of Time Warner 3.8 times lower than Comcast Time Warner has generated on average 62% of FCF from OPCF Comcast has generated on average 45% of FCF from OPCF
  91. 91. Altman Z-Score (in $millions except score) 2013 2012 2013 2012 Current Assets 14 075 19 991 12 844 13 264 Current Liabilities 18 912 16 714 8 383 9 799 Total Assets 158 813 164 971 67 994 68 089 Total Liabilities 107 755 115 175 38 090 38 292 Working Capital -4 837 3 277 4 461 3 465 Earnings Before Interest and Taxes 13 563 12 179 6 605 5 918 Retained Earnings 19 235 16 280 -85 041 -88 732 Market Capitalization 132 707 95 268 58 542 41 017 Sales 64 657 62 570 29 795 28 729 Altman Z-Score 1,56 1,28 0,01 -0,41 -1.50 -1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 (working capital / TA) (RE / TA) (EBIT / TA) (Market Cap / TL) (Sales / TA) Ratio Score Ratios Breakdown of Altman Z-Score 2012 TWX 2013 TWX 2012 CMCSA 2013 CMCSA -2.00 -1.50 -1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 1.2 * (working capital / TA) 1.4 * (RE / TA) 3.3 * (EBIT / TA) 0.6 * (Market Cap / TL) 0.999 * (Sales / TA) Weighted Ratio Score Weighted Ratios Breakdown of Altman Z-Score 2012 TWX 2013 TWX 2012 CMCSA 2013 CMCSA +0.28 +0.42 • CMCSA Grey Zone • TWX Distress Zone TWX risk of bankruptcy BUT… Z scores Improved in 2013 Lower Total Assets and Total Liabilities while sales increase  Higher efficiency and market confidence Z scores are low because: CMCSA Negative Working Capital TWX Negative RE -> AOL write-off DISTRESS ZONE GREY ZONE SAFE ZONE 1.23 2.9 -0.41 0.01 1.28 1.56 -1.25 -1.75
  92. 92. Comparative Bankruptcy (In $Millions) Item Coefficient Balance Sheet Value 2013 Balance Sheet Value 2012 Bankruptcy adjusted value 2013 Bankruptcy adjusted value 2012 Balance Sheet Value 2013 Balance Sheet Value 2012 Bankruptcy adjusted value 2013 Bankruptcy adjusted value 2012 Cash and cash equivalents 1,00 1 718 10 951 1 718 10 951 1 862 2 841 1 862 2 841 STI 0,50 3 573 1 464 1 787 732 - - - - Receivables 0,60 6 376 5 521 3 826 3 313 7 868 7 385 4 721 4 431 Inventories 0,20 - - - - 2 028 2 036 406 407 Deferred Income Taxes 0,00 - - - - 447 474 - - Programming Rights 1,10 928 909 1 021 1 000 - - - - Other Current Assets 0,60 1 480 1 146 888 688 639 528 383 317 Film and Television Costs 0,70 4 994 5 054 3 496 3 538 6 699 6 675 4 689 4 673 Investments 0,50 3 770 6 325 1 885 3 163 2 024 1 966 1 012 983 Property and Equipment, net 0,85 29 840 27 232 25 364 23 147 3 825 3 942 3 251 3 351 Franchise Rights 1,10 59 364 59 364 65 300 65 300 - - - - Goodwill 0,00 27 098 26 985 - - 30 563 30 446 - - Other Intangible Assets, net 0,30 17 329 17 840 5 199 5 352 9 549 9 750 2 865 2 925 Other Noncurrent Assets, net 0,50 2 343 2 180 1 172 1 090 2 490 2 046 1 245 1 023 TOTAL ASSETS 158 813 164 971 111 654 118 273 67 994 68 089 20 434 20 950 Total Current Liabilities 1,00 18 912 16 714 18 912 16 714 8 383 9 799 8 383 9 799 Net Cash 92 742 101 559 12 051 11 151 Total Non-Current Liabilities 1,00 88 843 98 461 88 843 98 461 29 707 28 493 29 707 28 493 Net Liquidation for Bondholders 104% 103% 41% 39% Liquidation Value 3 899 3 098 -17 656 -17 342 Common Shares Outstanding 2 597 2 639 895 932 Net Liquidation Share $51,10 $36,10 $1,50 $1,17 $65,41 $44,01 $-19,73 $-18,61 41% 39%100% 100%3.2%2.9% $0 $0 0.0% When customers are aware of a bankruptcy situation, some might not pay the money they owe the company or the delay might be too short for accounting. Very few inventories because “Long-Term” Inventories. Very uneasy to sell Work In Progress inventory The Franchise Rights and Programming Rights are the most valuable Assets for both companies. In a very competitive industry competitors will fight to get these! Movie plot and TV show ideas can be sold at a discount to other productions in order to raise cash quickly.Both companies have valuable and well located properties which can be sold quickly at a small discountEvaluating Intangibles can be very random, so competitors would benefit from the situation to underestimate the Intangibles of the bankrupt companiesComcast’s shareholders would only get back around 3% of the total amount invested Time Warner’s shareholders would get back as much as nothing from their investment Enough cash to cover Non-Current Liabilities so Comcast bondholders will receive 100% of their principal back. Not enough cash to cover Non-Current Liabilities. Time Warner bondholders will receive approximately 40% of their principal back.
  93. 93. Buy Short TOTAL NBof transaction 19 21 40 Nb of shares 1338599 1096463 2435062 NBof transaction 36 57 93 Nb of shares 1843875 1793926 3637801 NBof transaction 63 94 157 Nb of shares 1745135 1495396 3240531 NBof transaction 99 151 250 Nb of shares 3589010 3289322 6878332 Last6months Last3months First6months Last12months 62% of total transactions in first half of the year BUT More shares were traded in the second half Buy Short TOTAL NBof transaction 27 28 55 Nb of shares 473534 315971 789505 NBof transaction 36 32 68 Nb of shares 775245 540504 1315749 NBof transaction 13 3 16 Nb of shares 25596 4699 30295 NBof transaction 49 35 84 Nb of shares 800841 545203 1346044 Last3months Last6months First6months Last12months More transaction were SHORTS BUT More shares were bought in total 81% of total transactions in the last 6 months Insiders were bullish More buy transactions + 60% shares bought 40% shares shorted
  94. 94. ROBERT BRIAN L CEO Chairman of Board Comcast He has 847,645 shares 3.93% of total outstanding shares Worth $50,392,495 BEWKES JEFFREY L CEO Chairman of the Board Time Warner Inc He has 343,345 shares 6% of total outstanding shares Worth $32,13,292
  95. 95. Regular buyer of its own stocks. In 10 years $19.4B in buybacks Reduce Outstanding shares by 47% EPS multiplied by 4 -> Attract Shareholders Announced $6.5B buyback program Share price gained 17% -> Maintain Stock Price Number of share Amount in million $ % Number of share Amount in million $ % Outstanding share 2607 30 86% 2640 31 86% Treasury Stock 436 7,517 14% 436 7,517 14% Total 3043 37,517 100% 3076 38,517 100% 2013 2012 Number of share Amount in million $ % Number of share Amount in million $ % Outstanding share 895 153,41 54% 932 154,577 56% Treasury Stock 757 37,63 46% 720 37,077 44% Total 1652 191,04 100% 1652 191,654 100% 2013 2012
  96. 96. Which risk are you willing to take ? Industry 0.88 1.21 1.56 Beta lower than 1.00 and almost ½ of the Industry’s which can be explained by the fact that despite some hot ratios Comcast is almost leading a monopoly. They are helped by the government but on very regulated by the FCC Higher than 1.00 but still lower than the Industry’s which is good. They have a quite high ratio as they are not leader in their market, and their balance sheet holds as much intangibles as Comcast while their equity is messed up (A.O.L) Relatively high beta which shows that this industry is riskier than the market, however it has been a profitable and lucrative investment during the past 7 years
  97. 97. Stock Split 3/2 2/22/2007 10 year Low @ 11.05 3/9/2009 Acquisition of 51% of NBCU 12/3/2009 12/3 Purchase End of the Week 8-Year High 2010 2014 2010 2014
  98. 98. • Real risk free rate of return = 0.11% • Average return on the market = 8.70% • CMCSA Beta = 1.21 • RRR = 10.50% • Dividend Yield = 1.59% • ERR for the year = 13.59% • ERR for next year = 25.89% X3.0 $1.40/$87. y = 0.0859x + 0.0011 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 RequiredRateofReturn Beta 0.88 7.67% 10.50% 1.21
  99. 99. 0.96 0.97 0.97
  100. 100. Last Month Results Two Month Ago Results Three Month Ago Results Strong Buy 11 11 11 11 11 11 Buy 12 24 11 22 11 22 Hold 3 9 3 9 3 9 Underperform 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sell 0 0 0 0 0 0 Score 26 1.69 25 1.68 25 1.68 Last Month Results Two Month Ago Results Three Month Ago Results Strong Buy 11 11 11 11 12 12 Buy 14 28 14 28 13 26 Hold 8 24 7 21 6 18 Underperform 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sell 0 0 0 0 0 0 Score 33 1,91 32 1,88 31 1,81 Very stable and a result which means a Strong Buy Stable and a result which means a Buy 1.69 1.68 1.68 1.91 1.811.88 Price Target Summary Price 3/21 @ $59.45 Target-Actual Price V% Median Target: 66,00 11% High Target: 72,00 21% Low Target: 56,00 -6% Growth Expected 26% Price Target Summary Price 3/21 @ $87.89 Target-Actual Price V% Median Target: 93,00 6% High Target: 109,00 24% Low Target: 78,00 -11% Growth Expected 19% +26% +19%
  101. 101. • Real risk free rate of return = 0.11% • Average return on the market = 8.70% • CMCSA Beta = 0.88 • RRR = 7.67% • Dividend Yield = 1.68% • ERR for the year = 2.88% • ERR for next year = 25.89% 6-Month T-Bill Rate Dividend + Growth Rate $1.40/$87.89
  102. 102. • Real risk free rate of return = 0.11% • Average return on the market = 8.70% • CMCSA Beta = 1.21 • RRR = 10.50% • Dividend Yield = 1.59% • ERR for the year = 13.59% • ERR for next year = 25.89% X3.0 $1.40/$87.
  103. 103. Due to a high Equity Multiplier and an agressive growth stock type ! Same rating as Liberty Global and Time Warner Cable Long Term Debt : A- / Short Term Debt : A-2 “the obligor's capacity to meet its financial commitment on the obligation is still strong” Rated BB- Rated BBB Due to a good beta of 1.2, a high P/E and a strong capital structure Long Term Debt: BBB/ Short Term Debt : A-2 “adverse economic conditions are more likely to lead to a weakened capacity of the obligor to meet its financial commitment on the obligation.” Rated A Rated BBB+
  104. 104. October 29th, 2014 Stock price opened down the next day after 13 days of constant growth! February 23rd, 2014 « Comcast and Time Warner Cable sued for allegedly discrimating against African American-owned media and employing advocates such as the NAACP »
  105. 105. • 401(k) retirement investment plans • Increased discount rate by 0.75- 1.00% from 2012 to 2013  calm shareholders • NBCU has a liability toward GE: has to pay the benefit payments of vested people at the time of the NBCU transaction • Life insurance investments (Split-dollar)  Help employees with insurance-related costs • Possibility of severance benefits • $1.4 B in benefit obligation • Generous Warner Bros compensation for retired employees that have served with merit • Time Warner Group Health Plan • Investment plan 35% Equity Investments / 65% Fixed Income Investments • RT & RA plan for artists, television and radio workers • Increased discount rate by 0.70% from 2012 to 2013  calm shareholders • $4.0 B in benefit obligation

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