It is becoming increasingly evident that we are at a point where the infrastructure modernization algorithm comes to a halt unless our solutions outsmart urban population growth – and fast. Let's talk about that!

1. Transportation Talk
Matt Cole – President, CTS, Senior Vice President, Cubic Corporation July 2016

2. POPULATION GROWTH
158M
1950
325M
2015
401M
2050
Transportation Talk with Matt Cole

3. URBANIZATION
90% of the U.S. population
will be living in metropolitan
areas.
U.S 2030
90%
Global 1950
29%
The world’s population
is migrating from rural
to urban.
Global 2012
52%
Transportation Talk with Matt Cole

4. POPULATION DENSITY
1990
1,110,623
2,498,016
2000
1,223,400
2,813,833
2010
1,307,402
3,095,313
2015
1,394,928
3,299,521
San Diego City - 372.4 sq mi.
San Diego County - 4,526 sq mi.
Transportation Talk with Matt Cole

5. PEAK COMMUTE TIMES
Average Commute time in San Diego
24.3Minutes
San Diego rush hour traffic:
7:30 AM 11:00 AM
Trend:
1980: 19 min.
1990: 21.9 min.
2000: 24.3 min.
2014: 24.25min.
Transportation Talk with Matt Cole

6. INFRASTRUCTURE BUILDING
• Average time to build a California rail line ~13.2
Years
• # of new metro/rail/subway lines built in California
Last 5 years
3
Last 10 years
7
Last 20 years
13
Transportation Talk with Matt Cole

7. INFRASTRUCTURE BUILDING
# of new bridges and tunnels built in California
Last 5 years:
2 tunnels, 2 bridges
Last 10 years:
2 tunnels, 2 bridges
Last 20 years:
2 tunnels, 3 bridges
Transportation Talk with Matt Cole

8. INFRASTRUCTURE FUNDING
Pressures on Government Spending
– US National Debt
• Average yearly increase of 7% (1990-2015).
• Currently at ~$19 trillion
– US Federal transportation funding
• Flat with slight decline (-0.1%) (2010-2016)
• Currently at ~$72 billion
– CA State transportation funding
• Flat with slight decline (-1%) (2010-2016)
• Currently at ~$17 billion
Transportation Talk with Matt Cole

9. INFRASTRUCTURE FUNDING
Basics of the
Gas Tax and the
Highway Trust Fund
Overall HTF
Deficit Increase
205%
2014-2025
1990-2013 mpg
has increased
annually
by 1.10%
Fuel Efficient
cars
200k
California
712k
Worldwide
Transportation Talk with Matt Cole

10. INFRASTRUCTURE FUNDING
CA Gas tax provides about
$2.3 billion a year, leaving
nearly $5.7 billion in
unfunded repairs each year
Transportation Talk with Matt Cole

11. COST OF CONGESTION
National
$124b
2013
$186b
2030
Los Angeles
$23.2b
2013
– It’s estimated that
passenger and freight
border delays in
Imperial Valley caused
economic output losses
of > $7 billion
Transportation Talk with Matt Cole

12. SUSTAINABILITY
U.S. public transportation
saves 37 million metric
tons of CO2 annually
In 2013, congestion
generated an additional
8,576 kilotons of CO2
in the US
1,433 kilotons
of CO2 in
Los Angeles alone
(17% of total US
output)
Transportation Talk with Matt Cole

13. MOBILE AND SERVICE CULTURE
• Connectivity is ubiquitous
– 64% of American adults own a
smartphone as of April 2015
– 29% of cell phone owners describe their
cell phone as “something they can’t
imagine living without”
• Mobile has changed our
service expectation
– 63% of adult cell owners use their
phones to go online
64% 29%
63%
Transportation Talk with Matt Cole

14. INTERNET OF THINGS
Connectivity of devices
Traffic from wireless and mobile
devices will account for two thirds
of web traffic by 2020
734m
Devices in U.S.
Transportation Talk with Matt Cole

15. E-COMMERCE
• Impact to personal journeys
– Rapid decline in US retail foot traffic hit a low in 2013 of
only 17.6 billion visits
– From 2005-2016, US online retailing increased by about
17.5% each year
• The impact to road occupancy
– 45% increase in freight traffic on US roads by 2045
– By 2023, the total population of trucks in the U.S. will
grow by 26%; the total miles driven will increase by
38%; and the total tonnage carried will increase by 26%.
45%
Transportation Talk with Matt Cole

16. THE SHARING ECONOMY
Ride share
– 57% of all rideshare passengers are millennials
90m
2015
205m
2016 (est.)
Lyft ride targets
140m
2014
1b
2009-2015
Uber rides
Transportation Talk with Matt Cole

17. THE FUTURE OF THE CAR
The connected car, V2V, V2I
– Global:
13%New cars shipped
w/ connectivity
2015
75%New cars will ship
w/ connectivity
2020
23 million vehicles in 2013
VS
By 2020 there will be 220
million connected vehicles
Transportation Talk with Matt Cole

18. THE FUTURE OF THE CAR
Autonomous vehicles
– End of 2013, Nevada, Florida, California, and Michigan, and District of Columbia
have successfully enacted laws addressing autonomous vehicles
2020
First driverless
vehicle in US
2032
10 million driverless
vehicles will be shipped in the US
Transportation Talk with Matt Cole

19. THE FUTURE OF TRANSPORTATION
• Need to shift peak demand
• Pay as you go is inevitable / Mobility as a Service
• Transportation is essential to the health of the city
• The changing way that people will travel (less cars, more shared)
• Government has to keep pace with technology
• The need to coordinate and integrate increasingly disparate modes
• Driverless cars are coming, buses too (trains are already here)
Transportation Talk with Matt Cole

20. PREDICTION
• Driverless transit at peak for dense corridor movement
• Active transportation will be more significant
• Shared autonomous pods for low occupancy first/last mile
• Pooled, on-demand, autonomous vehicles for off-peak movement
• Car ownership will reduce but not disappear
• There will be significant multi-modalism
• Pay for use
Transportation Talk with Matt Cole

21. CUBIC’S RESPONSE, NEXTCITY
• Eliminate uncertainty
• Reduce service cost
• Generate new
revenues
• Integrated policy
• Reduced operational
costs
• Enhanced customer
experience
• Identify unknown
relationships
• Model and measure
• Benchmark and
improve
Integrated
customer
experience
One
Account
Operations
and
Analytics
Transportation Talk with Matt Cole