Guest lecture given to first-year engineering students at the University of British Columbia, 2013 Sept 10. (APSC 150) Title: A sustainable (energy) future After a brief preface on intellectual self-defense, the presentation discussed the science underpinning our understanding of climate change, followed by an analysis of worldwide energy use. The experience curve was introduced as a force arguably more powerful than Moore's Law (because it applies in virtually every manufacturing sector) and the main reason that renewables (wind and solar, for the time being) are likely to displace fossil fuel and nuclear power in the coming decades -- not for reasons of conscience, but reasons of cost. Lastly, the metaphor of the "utility death spiral" was introduced to explain the probable impact of efficiency and renewables, on the fossil-and-nuclear dominated utility sector, in coming decades.

1. Sustainable Energy
lecture for UBC APSC 150
(first-year engineering course)
Matthew Klippenstein P.Eng. PMP

2. Where did we come from?
Who are we?
Where are we going?

3. Where did we come from?
Who are we?
Where are we going?

4. Where are we going?
A sustainable (energy) future
Matthew Klippenstein, P.Eng., PMP
2013 Sept 10

5. Apologies to:
Biomed
Geological
Mining

6. Preamble:
A very little bit about me

7. I had a great high
school chemistry
teacher

8. UBC Chem Eng, 1999
a seven-year long, four-year degree
notable achievements:
handed in assignment on a napkin,
after 1998 APEC protests (10/10)
convinced Dow CEO to send book
to chemical plant, while a co-op

9. “I’m the king of the world!!”
Worked at Ballard Power Systems

10. while plotting next move…
EV commentary for Green Car Reports,
Corporate Knights
adapting theatre play (staged in Surrey, 2007)
into graphic novel

11. Preamble:
On intellectual self-defense

13. Dennis Gartman did worse
than 98.2% of mutual funds
in 2009…
and 82% of funds in 2010.
His investment newsletter
costs $400/month.

14. charisma ≠ content

15. raised $850 million;
bankrupted Better Place;
claims to be electric car visionary

16. For the record, I’ve been wrong a
lot:
thought fuel cells were the future – dissed EV’s
until Chevy Volt announcement – figured EV
adoption would be as slow as hybrids – didn’t think
solar would get so cheap, so fast – renewables driving
fossil fuel utilities into “death spiral” now, not decades from now
– wind growing way faster than expected – turns out utility-scale
energy storage may not be needed – believed we’d’ve hit “peak oil” by
now – didn’t anticipate fracking to have as much impact, though decline rates
will doom optimists – Sierra Club’s anti-coal campaign has been way more successful
than I thought would have been possible – while I’m at it, I thought the Canucks would for sure win the
Cup in 2011… and 2012… and 2013 – didn’t realize quite how much I’d have to write, if I kept shrinking the font with
each line on this here slide

17. We are guided by our biases:
I don’t like “X”
“X” supports “Y”
therefore, I oppose it

18. We are guided by our biases:
I don’t like David Suzuki
Suzuki supports action on climate
therefore I oppose it

19. We are guided by our biases:
I don’t like big corporations
they make vaccines
therefore, I oppose vaccination

20. Background:
we are (a large
subset of) the world

21. we’re insanely successful

22. Global population
7.2 billion humans
25 billion chickens
2 billion pigs
1 billion cattle
1 billion sheep
0.5 billion cats
0.4 billion dogs
domesticated animals
0.001 billion whales
0.001 billion bears
0.0005 billion elephants

23. Global population
7.2 billion humans
25 billion chickens
2 billion pigs
1 billion cattle
1 billion sheep
0.5 billion cats
0.4 billion dogs
domesticated animals
0.001 billion whales
0.001 billion bears
0.0005 billion elephants

24. 1,000,000 individuals

25. metabolism100 W 10 kW

26. metabolism100 W 10 kW
tech
etc.

27. metabolism100 W 10 kW
tech
etc.
We are whales
10 kW

28. We are whales
metabolism 10 kW
Canadian domestic energy consumption 2011 = 10,600 PJ
= 10,600,000 TJ
 35,000,000 Canadians
= 0.3 TJ / person / year
= 300 GJ / person / year  365 days / year
= 0.8 GJ / person / year
= 800 MJ / person / day
= 800,000 kJ / person / day  86400 seconds / day
= 9 kJ / person / second
= 9 kW / person

29. 81%
6%
13%
Fossil
Nuclear
Renewable
address this,
first and fast,
because…

30. it’s a hell of an inheritance

31. besides, global warming is real…

32. it runs deep…

33. it’s us…

34. and we’re “overachieving” our way…

35. into a new world.

36. Avoiding CO2…
net 12 GT CO2

37. …is maddeningly
affordable!

38. savings here:
insulation (!)
efficient cars, appliances…
LED lights

39. can pay for
(almost) all the rest:
wind
solar
etc.

40. Examples in progress
Denmark hit Kyoto targets
promised about -21%
achieved -21.5%
Germany too
promised -21%
achieved -22.4%

41. Examples in progress
DuPont cut emissions
72%* since 1990
world’s #1 chemical company
Dow achieved 40%
world’s #2
this is supposedly impossible, according to Jevon’s Paradox…

42. Contents:
A sustainable energy future

43. efficiency: “NegaWatts”
applicable everywhere:
CHML, CIVL, CPEN, ELEC, ENPH, ENVE,
GEOE, IGEN, MECH, MINE, MTRL
15 lm/W 75 lm/W

44. car efficiency 20% ish
driver weight 10% ish
net efficiency 2% ish
1000+ Wh to move driver 1 km
bike weight near negligible
20-40 Wh to move cyclist 1 km

45. efficiency is the “eat
less and exercise” of
sustainability…
polyurethane foam

46. …not fancy, but it gets you there

47. PV-powered Burnaby house (note: we live in a rainforest)

48. but we can’t shrink our way there
81%
6%
13%
Fossil
Nuclear
Renewable

49. but we can’t shrink our way there
81%
6%
13%
Fossil
Nuclear
Renewable
we need to scale, too

50. Goal: cut coal
with coal: net 12 GT CO2
4 GT if coal-free

51. without nuclear, which is safe…
Fukushima:
600 deaths during evacuation
1000 cancer deaths, long-term
Chernobyl:
4000 cancer deaths, long-term
Coal mining:
1300 deaths, in China in 2012

52. but getting more expensive over time

53. and shuts down in heat waves
2003: France, Germany
2006: France, Germany, Spain,
US (Illinois, Michigan)
2007: US (Alabama)
2008: US (Alabama)
2009: France, Germany
2010: US (NJ, Penn, Illinois, GA – turned down)
2011: US (Alabama)
2012: US (NY, Penn., South Carolina, Maryland)

54. renewables
(mainly wind + solar, for now)
will pick up the slack
81%
6%
13%
Fossil
Nuclear
Renewable
“relatively infinitely big” compared to
current wind, solar sector
almost all hydro

55. renewables
(mainly wind, solar)
will pick up the slack
they’re riding a wave more powerful
than Moore’s Law:

56. the experience curve
“Each time cumulative volume
doubles, value-added costs fall
by a constant percentage.”
An MIT study in 2012 concluded that the experience curve was even more accurate at
predicting cost reductions than Moore’s Law:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jimhandy/2013/03/25/moores-law-vs-wrights-law/
thanks in part
to engineers!

57. the experience curve
“Each time cumulative volume
doubles, value-added costs fall
by a constant percentage.”
it occurs “relatively everywhere”…
machine tools, electrical operations: 80%
aerospace, shipbuilding: 80-85%
machining, electronics mfg: 90-95%

58. the experience curve
and it’s been around a long time...

59. the experience curve
and it’s why renewables will scale

60. the experience curve
and it’s why renewables will scale
way easier to double
production here
(renewables)
…than here
(FF, N)

61. Renewables make electricity cheaper
they add “supply” to “supply & demand”

62. wind energy
requires:
- civil / structural
- computer
(modelling, Big Data)
- electrical
(inverters etc.)
- eng phys
(most of the above)
- environmental
(site selection)
- mechanical
- materials

63. wind’s experience curve…

64. will make it cheaper than FF

65. GE’s new turbines achieve
50% capacity factor:
costs probably in this range
a lot cheaper

66. 440,000 kills (US est.)
While turbines do kill birds each year
http://www.nature.com/news/the-trouble-with-turbines-an-ill-wind-1.10849#/bird high estimates used for each case

67. 440,000 kills (US est.)
1,000,000,000 kills (US est.)
While turbines do kill birds each year
it’s good to keep perspective…
http://www.nature.com/news/the-trouble-with-turbines-an-ill-wind-1.10849#/bird high estimates used for each case

68. Steven Chu cost curve
solar requires:
- civil / structural
(large arrays)
- computer
(modelling)
- electrical
(inverters etc.)
- eng phys
(most of the above)
- environmental
(site selection)
- mechanical
- materials
- chemical
(silicon & CVD, baby!)

69. Steven Chu cost curve
Solar is also following a cost curve…
http://www.irena.org/DocumentDownloads/Publications/RE_Technologies_Cost_Analysis-SOLAR_PV.pdf

70. Steven Chu cost curve
Solar is also following a cost curve…
http://www.irena.org/DocumentDownloads/Publications/RE_Technologies_Cost_Analysis-SOLAR_PV.pdf
2013 actual2013 actual
(currently ahead of schedule)

71. …driven by exponential growth…

72. …which will eventually slow
as costs drop,
market grows, sales increase
but it gets harder
to scale production

73. but not before FF/N utilities
face a “death spiral”

74. Efficiency + renewables…

75. …cut demand…

76. …and reduce market prices…

77. …causing FFN plant closures…
RWE (#2 German utility) shut 3.1 GW
E.On (#1) shut 6.5 GW,
might shut 11 GW more
RWE CEO:
“[closed because] … wholesale prices have fallen by
around a fifth, and the growth of renewables means
that the hours that fossil fuel plant operate are being
dramatically reduced.”

78. …and retail rate increases…
Revenue = Retail Sales x Regulated Price
+ Market Sales x Market Price

79. Revenue = Retail Sales x Regulated Price
+ Market Sales x Market Price
…and retail rate increases…

80. Revenue = Retail Sales x Regulated Price
+ Market Sales x Market Price
…and retail rate increases…
to maintain
revenues, utilities must
raise rates
(and/or shut plants to
reduce costs)

81. …drive efficiency, renewables use.

82. FF/N utilities’ “death spiral”
more
renewables
less FF/N
demand
cheaper
wholesale
electricity
utilities shut
plants, raise
rates
renewables
even more
attractive

83. Or, as Germans might say,
kesseldammerüng
(death of the kettle)

84. kesseldammerüng
(kettle reference is because thermal
power plants are glorified kettles)

85. TL;DR?
translation for non-Reddit users:
“Too Long; Didn’t Read?”

86. "Things happen fairly
slowly, you know. They do.
These waves of
technology, you can see them
way before they happen, and
you just have to choose wisely
which ones you're going to
surf.”
2008

87. one such wave
is starting to hit
the energy sector

88. Fossil
Nuclear
Renewable
this will change

89. Fossil
Nuclear
Renewable
for the better
Fossil
Nuclear
Renewable

90. because of
the experience curve

91. …especially if you help it along.