This preliminary design study was originally written by Matthew Kronborg circa 2007.
The aim was to explore the technical and economic feasibility of using hydrogen, produced via renewable energy, to power air cargo transportation and to develop an optimal pathway towards commercialisation of such a system.
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Preface
This preliminary design study was originally written by Matthew Kronborg circa 2007.
The aim was to explore the technical and economic feasibility of using hydrogen, produced via
renewable energy means, to power air cargo transportation and to develop an optimal pathway
towards commercialisation of such a system.
Your feedback and contributions to evolve this concept are welcome.
Please send to matt_kronborg@hotmail.com
Key words
Aviation, Air Cargo, Association of South East Asian Nations, Regional, Hydrogen, Renewable,
Energy, Mega-scale, Infrastructure, Economic Development, Innovation, Commercial,
Environment, Climate Change, Solutions
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Contents
Executive Summary....................................................................................................................4
Vision Statement .........................................................................................................................4
Mission Statement ......................................................................................................................4
BUSINESS SUMMARY
Introduction ..................................................................................................................................5
Service Features ..........................................................................................................................7
Market Summary.........................................................................................................................8
Marketing Strategy Outline.....................................................................................................8
Key Objectives and Financial Overview .............................................................................9
Financial Overview.................................................................................................................. 10
Market Analysis ........................................................................................................................ 11
Air Cargo Transport Service ................................................................................................ 11
Airfreight Logistics Process ................................................................................................. 12
System Design Considerations............................................................................................ 14
Energy transformation process: fossil-free hydrogen generation........................ 18
Location ....................................................................................................................................... 19
Technical Feasibility Review ............................................................................................... 20
Initial Route Network............................................................................................................. 29
SWOT Analysis .......................................................................................................................... 30
Early Business and Organisational Structure ............................................................... 32
Management and Ownership............................................................................................... 32
Key Milestones.......................................................................................................................... 34
Indicative Timeline.................................................................................................................. 35
Financial Information............................................................................................................. 36
Core service revenue .............................................................................................................. 38
Ancillary service revenue...................................................................................................... 42
Triple Bottom Line Benefits................................................................................................. 43
General Comments .................................................................................................................. 44
Final Point................................................................................................................................... 45
APPENDICES
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Executive Summary
This is an initial evaluation paper of a business concept titled theValhallaProject;
considering technological and financial feasibility.
TheValhallaProject is a synergy of the latest aerospace, automation and clean energy
technology that seeks the design, construction and implementation of a next generation
air cargo network system to service the needs of the ASEAN region. This revolutionary
concept will achieve zero flight crew labour costs, zero fossil fuels use, and produce zero
net emissions, all at an operational unit cost (freight tonne cost per kilometre) an
average of 15% below that of the current fossil jet fuel powered air cargo network
system.
Vision Statement
To be the preferred air cargo provider in the ASEAN region
Mission Statement
The mission of theValhallaProject is to create an innovative, sustainable, rapid, safe and
secure regional airfreight system for our modern globalised world.
• To provide the lowest price air cargo solution in the ASEAN region
• To evolve the air cargo industry through game changing innovation
• To provide an air cargo service driven by customer needs
• To handle air cargo safely, securely and efficiently
• To further the economic and social development of the ASEAN member
countries
• To be an ASEAN ‘nation building’ project that strengthens the relationships
between ASEAN nations
• To be driven by economic, social and environmental purpose
• To provide our employees with satisfying and enjoyable careers
• To be a triple-bottom-line sustainable company
• To develop a business through strategic partnerships
• To deliver strong and sustainable returns to our shareholders
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-Business Summary-
Introduction
The global air transport network efficiently connects people and goods, facilitating the
global economy and creating immense societal benefit. Annually it transports over 3
billion passengers, 50 million tonnes of cargo and supports over US$2.2 trillion in
economic activity whilst directly providing 57 million jobsi. There is a cost however;
every single minute of every day, over 3,300 barrels of conventional fossil-based jet fuel
are combusted to power this networkii. This equates to a contribution of more than 700
million tonnes of CO2-e to our atmosphere every year. The obvious solution to this
climate change driver is an airline industry-wide transition to a clean energy supply.
Would such a transition be simple? No. Technically achievable? Yes. Required?
Definitely. Sustainable Aviation Fuels provide the ideal step change towards a lasting
solution. This concept explores the feasibility of the other renewable energy solution for
regional air cargo transportation, renewably sourced hydrogen, and considers the best
pathway towards commercialisation.
Mega-trends:
The global market is changing and adapting as certain mega-trends increase in impact:
• The price for conventional fossil-based jet fuel will continue its inevitable rise
over the long term1 on the back of increasing demand, finite absolute supply and
punitive carbon regulation that will forcefully reduce its competitiveness
compared to renewable energy alternatives.
• Fuel and labour continue to be the two largest, and growing, operating costs for
airlines; at around 50% of all direct operating costs2.
• Globalisation will continue to expand the demand for airfreight services
particularly intra-Asia3.
• Manufacturers of high value goods will continue to shift towards Just-In-Time
supply chain management.
• Public awareness and acceptance of the science and risks of anthropogenic
climate change will continue to rise. This will increase pressure on industry to
reduce the net greenhouse emissions of products and services. This is especially
so for the global warming ‘black sheep’; the aviation industry, due to its
publically visible nature. In 2007 the CEO of the International Air Transport
Association, the industry’s peak body, set a bold goal for the aviation industry to
reduce annual emissions to zero4.
1 Refer Appendix I
2 Refer Appendix V
3 Refer Appendix II and Appendix III
4 Refer Appendix IV
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The Opportunity:
TheValhallaProject recognises these global mega-trends and seeks to take advantage of
the opportunity they create through a revolutionary and commercially viable, large-
scale and long-term business concept.
TheValhallaProject seeks the design, construction and implementation of a
revolutionary regional air-cargo network utilizing unmanned high-capacity next
generation lighter-than-air aircraft. These will be inflated by inert-helium and powered
by purely renewable energy means. The wind and the sun’s energy will be converted to
electrical energy at ground-based stationary renewable energy generation facilities.
This electrical energy will be combined with water to create hydrogen through a simple
environmentally friendly process known as electrolysis. This hydrogen will in turn be
transferred to safe and secure tanks aboard theValhallaProject aircraft.
These next-generation automated airships, known as Valkyrie’s, will be the key airborne
assets of the system. Each Valkyrie will have a 100 tonne air cargo capacity, a cruising
airspeed of 200km/h and a range of 2,000km. The hydrogen onboard will feed fuel-cell
technology to convert it back into electrical energy and in turn mechanical energy for
propulsion via electric engines. This renewable energy transfer process completely
eliminates the requirement for conventional fossil-based jet fuels. As such, the Valkyrie’s
thrust system produces zero net greenhouse gas emissions and in doing so provides a
solution to the global transport industry's dead-end reliance on fossil fuels.
This initial evaluation indicates theValhallaProject concept is highly competitive with
the current jet powered air-cargo network from an operational cost perspective. The
significant development capital costs associated with this project are in similar
magnitude to those incurred to set-up the Airbus aircraft manufacturing company.
The entirety of this airfreight transport system will be fully automated; from cargo
loading/unloading and refuelling, right through to the flight operations themselves
which will utilise cutting edge Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) technology. All
operations will be controlled and monitored from a central ground-based command
centre, thus requiring zero operational ground crews or flight crews.
TheValhallaProject network will serve the Southeast Asian region on open over-water
routes. Once theValhallaProject’s integrity and value is proved from a community
perception perspective it may begin serving destinations across landmasses.
TheValhallaProject solution is most competitive over regional-scale short to medium
haul sectors due to inherent design considerations of airships, therefore it will begin by
replacing air cargo jet services that would normally take a block time of up to three
hours, with theValhallaProject sector time of around eight hours; still completing the
flights comfortably to provide a 24-hour premium express post service demanded by
the highest yielding air cargo customers.
TheValhallaProject aligns with the vision and goals of the Association of South East
Asian Nations (ASEAN) Secretariat.
TheValhallaProject will partner with identified leading cargo logistics firms to
implement and manage its air cargo operations.
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The technical success factors for which the project aims:
Zero outgoing fossil fuel costs
Zero operational flight crew and ground handling labour costs
Zero net greenhouse gas emissions
Service Features
TheValhallaProject will offer an ASEAN regional air cargo service that is 15% cheaper
than the jet network providing the region with an economic competitive advantage.
Primary Service Features:
Lower cost – This air cargo service is cheaper per unit (freight tonne per
kilometre) on average than the jet network due to >15% lower operational
costs, primarily as a result of zero outgoing fossil fuel costs and zero operational
labour costs
Same on time performance – All air cargo goods carried by theValhallaProject
network arrive within the same 24 hour premium express post timeframe of the
existing jet network
Environmentally sustainable – This air cargo service consumes only renewable
energy by design thus producing zero operational net emissions whilst being a
catalyst to enable the industrial scale adoption of renewable energy and the
hydrogen economy in the host countries.
Secondary Features:
Regional renewable energy and hydrogen supply – Excess renewable
electricity and renewable hydrogen produced by theValhallaProject will be
supplied to in-country markets across the ASEAN region, assisting to kick-start
the renewables sector and hydrogen economies of several such countries.
Figure 2: The main component of the theValhallaProject System is the Valkyrie aircraft.
Full implementation will see a fleet of Valkyrie’s plying the world’s regional air cargo routes, in doing so providing an
operational step-cost reduction and significantly reducing the aviation industries environmental impact.
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Market Summary
Fundamental changes in the global market that make theValhallaProject concept
increasingly favourable:
Conventional crude oil prices will rise exponentially over the long term due to
finite supply and accessibility
Globalisation will continue to grow the world’s international cargo market
Manufacturers will continue to prefer Just-In-Time supply chain management to
be most efficient and competitive
Rapid economic and social development of ASEAN nations is expected
Sustainable business models will be increasingly favoured to please
stakeholders
Marketing Strategy Outline
For Air Cargo Customers
TheValhallaProject will offer an air cargo transport service at a price that is on average
15% cheaper than the cost floor of competitors (the jet powered air cargo network) and
as such this will be theValhallaProject’s primary differentiator. Emphasis will also be
placed on the facts that air cargo will be delivered door-to-door within the same ‘24-
hour premium express post’ timeframe of normal jet air cargo transport and also in a far
more environmentally friendly manner.
Most air cargo customers view freight transport as a commodity service and as such are
not overly swayed by brand reputation, they simply want the cheapest means to
transport their goods from point A to point B safely, securely and rapidly -
theValhallaProject will provide this solution. TheValhallaProject will use the
standardised containerised airfreight system so that any Unit Load Devices can be
interoperable and loaded from other aircraft straight into theValhallaProject freight
system without need for manual repacking of goods.
Figure 3: TheValhallaProject’s primary saleable service is the provision of airfreight capacity
at a cost substantially lower than that possible using the incumbent jet network.
Each Valkyrie will have a 100 tonne payload capacity with a volumetric capacity similar to the inside
of the Boeing 767 freighter as seen here.
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Key Objectives and Financial Overview
Key objectives for pre-commercial success
1) Evaluate concept
2) Explore market appetite
3) Establish application of technology
4) Establish relationship with ASEAN secretariat
5) Identification and initial discussions with potential key partners
6) Identification and agreement to R&D funds
7) Identification and agreement to initial venture capital funds
8) Research and development of prototype
9) Identification and agreement to commercialisation funding
10) Full engagement of key partners.
Crucial Government Partner
ASEAN Secretariat (Including all ASEAN nations)
The ASEAN Secretariat's mission is to initiate, facilitate and coordinate ASEAN
stakeholder collaboration in realising the purposes and principles in the ASEAN
Charter. The ASEAN Secretariat's core function is to provide for greater
efficiency in the coordination of ASEAN organs and for more effective
implementation of ASEAN projects and activities. The ASEAN Secretariat will be
crucial to the success of theValhallaProject.
Industry Partners
The following industry partners are proposed. They will be key to the success of
theValhallaProject.
Technology research, development and deployment:
The Boeing Company - Aerospace technical expertise and manufacturing
General Electric - Propulsion systems
Aeroscraft - Airship envelope manufacture
Honeywell Systems - Avionics and fleet management system
HorizonFuelCell - Hydrogen components
Sunpower - Commercial scale solar PV farm deployment
Goldwind - Commercial scale wind farms deployment
Industrial Services Inciii - Desalinisation Components
Operations and Cargo Logistics:
FedEx
UPS
DHL
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Financial Overview
Initial financial modelling has been completed. Using the most likely scenario, the initial
capital investment requirement is US$9.47 billion. This will cover all R&D, prototyping,
construction and deployment of Phase One of theValhallaProject. Phase One includes a
core platform of ten ground ports and an operating fleet of ten Valkyrie aircraft. Worst-
case revenue in the first year is projected from US$0.962 billion through to best-case
US$9.62 billion.
Direct jet fuel energy expenses typically make up 30% of an airlines total operating
costsiv. Whist labour typically makes up 20% of an airlines total operating costsv.
Vertically integrating the energy system to produce the simple hydrogen in-house will
cut out the middlemen, protect against price volatility and insulate against supply
disruptions, which will dramatically slash fundamental energy costs compared to the
incumbent competition. Equally, by fully automating all of the handling of containerised
cargo and by operating all flights as unmanned aerial vehicles this will eliminate
significant labour costs. It is estimated that these savings combined will give
theValhallaProject greater than a 15% operational cost advantage over the incumbent
jet network.
Due to the cost favourable nature of theValhallaProject coupled with the high barriers to
market entry (due to high initial investment cost, IP and ASEAN Secretariat relationship
affording a geographic pseudo-monopolistic position) the forecast long-term
profitability of this project is very favourable.
Figure 4: Bottom-view of a Valkyrie aircraft
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Market Analysis
Air Cargo Demand Overview
Global:
Air cargo transports goods worth in excess of $6.4 trillion on an annual basis. This is
approximately 35% of world trade by value. The sector itself generates nearly $70
billion every year and is an important component of the aviation industry, which
collectively supports 57 million jobs worldwidevi
. This is expected to further multiply in
coming decades as globalisation continues and air cargo becomes ever increasingly
preferred for the rapid transport of high-value goods. Globalisation leads to many
positive economic and social benefits: it brings the world closer together as
international trade barriers decrease and international communications build which
ultimately increases stability and reduces the risk of conflict between nations. To
further strengthen these bridges between nations a revolutionary sustainable air cargo
network has a pivotal role to play in the modern era.
Intra-Asia:
Vast distances, wide expanses of open water, and minimal ground transport alternatives
make air cargo essential to the development of international markets within Asia. The
intra-Asia air cargo market constitutes 14.7% of the world’s air cargo traffic by tonnage
and about 7.4% in tonne-kilometres. Nearly half of Asia’s total exports represent trade
among countries within the region, of both finished goods and their components. Strong
regional economic growth, coupled with continuing demand from North America and
Europe for finished goods, is projected to sustain a healthy long-term annual air cargo
growth baseline of 6.9% p.a. through 2031.vii
The Boeing World Air Cargo Forecast shows that there are minimum 8.3 million tonnes
of cargo flown between ASEAN nations every year5. The current global fleet of operating
cargo aircraft is 16,800 and Boeing estimates this to expand to 35,300 by 2024. Air
cargo demand in Southeast Asia is growing in excess of 6% per annum, a trend expected
to continue well into the future.viii
Air Cargo Transport Service
The transport of high-value air cargo (such as computer equipment, jewellery,
pharmaceuticals, perishables or air mail) between the major cities in the ASEAN region
will be the core revenue driving service offered by theValhallaProject. The business
intends to initially partner with a world leading cargo transport logistics companies
(such as FEDEX, UPS or DHL) who will integrate theValhallaProject air cargo transport
solution into their service offering. They will conduct all freight sales, cargo
management, organisation, ground transport, container packing (utilising standard air
cargo containers) and related logistics. As theValhalaProject’s cargo capacity grows it is
expected that this partner will seek to solely using theValhallaProject as their ASEAN
regional air cargo solution due to the cost advantages involved. This cornerstone
partner will always be treated preferentially. However, theValhallaProject will not have
an exclusive cargo logistics partner, rather, due to its highly competitive cost base, it will
auction cargo capacity on each route via multi-year capacity off-take agreements with
any last minute remaining capacity sold at a premium to this.
5 Refer Appendix III
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Airfreight Logistics Process
TheValhallaProject will utilise the globally standardised air cargo container system
instead of creating a new air cargo container in order to minimise the costs and
complexity to the air cargo logistics industry and provide the ability to interline the
containers and pallets. This will allow the cargo to use multiple airline carriers to reach
destinations beyond the bounds of the ASEAN region without the need to unpack and
repack cargo into different size and shape containers.
The airfreight process is simple:
1) The cargo partner companies will truck the fully packed air cargo containers
(current global airline standard containerised 747 Unit Load Devices) via
ground transport trucking to the nearest respective ground port where they will
be unloaded and inserted into the fully automated cargo handling system of
theValhallaProject.
Figure 5: Dimensions of a typical Boeing 747 belly-hold standardised air cargo container (Unit Load Device)
Only interoperable standard airfreight containers will be used in theValhallaProject.
2) The air cargo containers will be managed at theValhallaProject’s respective
ground ports by way of fully automated systems similar to those currently in use
at the world’s leading air cargo facilities, such as HACTL Super Terminal 1 at
Hong Kong International Airport.
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Figure 6: Air cargo containers are already handled with full automation and HACTL Hong Kong
to reduce costs and improve operational efficiency
3) The fully laden air cargo containers will be collected and automatically loaded
inside the designated cargo pod according to its destination. The freight cabin of
the air cargo pod will be designed in a similar layout to current generation
airfreight aircraft cabins so that it fully integrates with the current standard
containerised airfreight system.
Figure 7: Inside a Boeing 747 freighter manually loading standard containerised airfreight
4) Once full the cargo pod will move utilising a rail type conveyor system to a
separate area where its tanks will be safely refuelled with high-pressure liquid
hydrogen and oxygen. Water ballast will be added if required.
5) The automated rail system will then transport the cargo pod out along the main
pier to a secured and tethered awaiting Valkyrie aircraft for loading.
6) When ready for departure the Valkyrie will release and climb away. As a fully
automated unmanned aerial vehicle it will climb to its optimum altitude,
depending on winds, of several thousand feet and cruise at an airspeed of
approximately 200kph. Upon arriving at the destination several hours later a
reverse of this process will occur to automatically disgorge and deliver the cargo
into the hands of the cargo partner.
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Figure 8: TheValhallaProject cargo container handling process is fully automated to
eliminate labour costs, improve safety and efficiency
System Design Considerations
The global aviation industry finds itself under ever escalating pressure to reduce its
environmental impact due to its colossal rate of consumption of fossil fuels and
immense greenhouse gas emissions. Rising oil prices6 and the enlarged awareness that
this finite resource is going to be exhausted, or potentially regulated out of the energy
mix, at some stage over the next one hundred years, are pushing air cargo transport
costs upwards. In 2003, the cost of jet fuel surpassed labour for the first time as the
largest operational cost of the average global airline7. Both fuel and labour costs as a
percentage of airline total operating costs are trending upwards over time. Meanwhile
renewable energy costs are trending downwards over time.
6 Refer Appendix I
7 Refer Appendix V
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Figure 9: Long term mega trends show that underlying cost drivers will inevitably increasingly favour renewable energy
(theValhallaProject air cargo network) in preference to the finite fossil energy sources (the fossil jet-powered air cargo
network)
The global demand for air cargo transport is growing. The world’s ‘factory’, Southeast
Asia is the largest and fastest growing regional air cargo market8.
Goods manufacturers’ consider marine shipping as slow and unreliable when compared
to the efficiencies afforded by high-speed air cargo transport services.
The main competition to theValhallaProject comes from the fossil fuel powered jet air
cargo network. However, by offering the exact same service at a price well below the
cost floor of these airlines, theValhallaProject will maintain a sustainable cost-
differentiating position. Those who try to implement a similar system to
theValhallaProject in the ASEAN region will find it exceedingly difficult due to the
extremely high-cost barrier to entry, plus theValhallaProject’s ownership of the vital
infrastructure such as cargo facilities. Not to mention theValhallaProject’s contracted
partnerships with critical stakeholders including the ASEAN governments, aviation
industries heavyweights (individuals and corporations) and cargo logistics partners.
Renewable Energy
Each ASEAN nation that signs up to theValhallaProject will receive a ~US$350 million
renewable energy infrastructure package that includes the construction of a large-scale
solar and wind powered stationary renewable electricity generation facility of
approximately 250MW in size to provide for the project’s energy requirements for that
country.
This being the first time that many of these ASEAN nations will have invested in large
scale renewable energy infrastructure will allow these facilities to be constructed in the
most preferred of locations seeking optimal renewable energy resources within each
respective country, giving this asset a permanent early-mover advantage. The
generation facilities will be connected to the respective national electricity grids at the
nearest suitable grid tie-in point. The airship ground ports will draw the energy off the
electricity grids at their separate locations, likely to be co-located with major airports.
This negates the need for the construction of new private power lines linking the two
locations and provides for excess electricity to be sold on the local energy market. In
addition, over time theValhallaProject could seek to become a renewable energy
supplier by capitalising on the initial market entrant leading position, favourable
geographic locations and government support. Equally, if the project ceases to be viable
for any reason these renewable energy assets will not be stranded.
8 Refer Appendix II and Appendix III
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For illustration this could be compared to the similar magnitude 250MW Lincs Wind
Farm off the coast of Lincolnshire in Englandix that has 75 three-blade 3.6MW Siemens
wind turbines, or the 206MW Collgar Wind Farm in Western Australiax that has 111
three-blade 2MW Vestas wind turbines. The worlds largest wind farm is the Gansu Wind
Farm in China with over 5,000 MW installed.
Figure 10: The offshore 250MW Lincs Wind Farm
In addition to these ground-based sources of renewable energy, the Valkyries’ upper
external surfaces will be covered in embedded solar photovoltaic panels that will
provide additional, but not essential, electrical energy for thrust during daylight
operations, conserving hydrogen. When the main thrust electrical motors are used for
engine braking on decent they can act as regenerative electricity sources (generators)
also conserving hydrogen.
Figure 11: Birds-eye of a Valkyrie aircraft
Note the Solar PV covering the upper surfaces
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High Quality Desalinated Water
TheValhallaProject will require relatively small amounts of high quality desalinated
water at each airship port (approximately 313,538 litres of desalinated water per day)
for the fossil-free creation of hydrogen using electrolysis. The electrolysis process is a
simple method used to create hydrogen, simply uses electricity to split fresh water into
its base elements; hydrogen and oxygen. The water required will be produced using
small, specialised desalinisation plants drawing seawater from the nearby sea or
unusable ground water brine. Excess high quality water produced could be sold at
premium prices for scientific and medical purposes as an ancillary revenue source. By
producing its own fresh water theValhallaProject will consume nil terrestrial fresh
water supplies needed by local peoples.
Figure 12: Desalinisation is a simple and widely used process to create fresh water from seawater
xi
Figure 13: Inside a typical industrial-scale desalinisation plant
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Energy transformation process: fossil-free hydrogen generation
The vast majority of the world’s hydrogen supply is currently produced directly from
fossil fuels, which is unsustainable. Instead, theValhallaProject will create its own
hydrogen at each airship port using electrolysis of fresh water. This hydrogen will be
used as the primary liquid energy transport and storage medium. The full renewable
energy chain of theValhallaProject, as outlined in the diagram below, is simple:
1) Electricity (provided by renewable energy means) is created.
2) The electrical current is passed through water H2O to split it into its base
elements; hydrogen and oxygen.
3) The hydrogen and oxygen is captured, compressed, liquefied and stored in large
tanks at the airship ground ports.
4) When a Valkyrie docks at the airship ground port this hydrogen and oxygen is
used to refuel the vessel.
5) Onboard, this hydrogen and oxygen is used to power hydrogen fuel cells
6) The fuels cells create electrical current.
7) The electrical current powers all on board systems, including the main
propulsion electric motors to deliver thrust.
Figure 14: Basic diagram of the energy transformation process of theValhallaProject
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Location
Why the ASEAN region is proposed as the location of the initial route network:
The ASEAN average regional route sector distances (500km-2000km) are
technically optimal for theValhallaProject transport solution.
The island-type geographic nature of the ASEAN region is ideal for this solution.
The geographic advantage is in the fact that the initial route network will
predominantly cross open ocean which provides two benefits; one, it is
expected to be easier to gain airworthiness approval from the relevant
authorities if the perceived risk to people and property below flight paths is
negated, and two, the network’s point-to-point services will bridge locations
that road and rail cargo transport services cannot reach in a 24 hour window.
The air cargo market demand within the ASEAN region is strong and growing
rapidly (8.3million tonnes of intra-ASEAN trade in 2006, growing at 6% p.a9.
The ASEAN Secretariat (the ASEAN governing body) has a strong history of
supporting large-scale special transport projects which enhance ASEAN
regionalism and give the territory a competitive advantage over the global
market. In recent years the ASEAN Secretariat has invested in massive transport
projects including rail networks, airports and seaports. TheValhallaProject is a
true ‘nation building’ project that would fit well within this portfolio.
The ASEAN Secretariat ‘Special Major Project Consideration Process’ has the
foresight to give fair evaluation opportunity to game-changing projects such as
theValhallaProject.
The ASEAN Vision 2020; a document written by the ASEAN Heads of
Government, states the long-term goals of the ASEAN group. This document
makes a number of declarations that favour a bold, revolutionary
theValhallaProject type transport scheme. By means of:
2. “developing a integrated and harmonised trans-ASEAN transportation
network”,
3. “promoting open sky policy”,
4. “facilitating goods in transit”,
5. “fully implementing the ASEAN Free Trade Area”, and;
6. “pledging to sustain ASEAN's high economic performance by building
upon the foundation of existing cooperation efforts, consolidating
achievements, expanding collective efforts and enhancing mutual
assistance”; all of which should pursue the vision for ,
7. “a clean and green ASEAN with fully established mechanisms for
sustainable development.”10
9 Refer Appendix III
10 Refer Appendix VII for full explanation of excerpts
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Technical Feasibility Review
An initial technical feasibility review that was conducted indicated that all technologies
required for theValhallaProject are either currently developed and commercialised, or,
currently proven, under development and soon to be commercialised. The critical
technologies and high-level numbers are here explored to test the technical robustness
of the concept.
1.1 Introduction and Summary of Factors Effecting Structural and Systems Design
1.2 Envelope Capacity Relating to Buoyancy
1.3 Power Requirements Relating to Drag
1.4 Fuel Requirements and Systems
1.4.1: Fuel Cells
1.4.2: Hydrogen Storage
1.5 Primary Propulsion Systems
1.6 Other Factors
1.6.1 Weight of Envelope
1.6.2 Weight of Structure
1.6.3 Weight of Cargo Bay
1.6.4 Weight of Extra Components
1.6.5 Hydrogen Production
1.7 Summary and Conclusions
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1.1 Introduction and Summary of Factors Effecting Structural and Systems
Design
A project as technically complex as theValhallaProject requires sophisticated modelling
and detailed statistical summary beyond the scope of this initial conceptual evaluation
paper for proper analysis. For this initial report regarding the feasibility of such a
project and what a potential design solution may look like please note the following key
assumptions.
Core to theValhallaProject is the Valkyrie aircraft, in this case a modern airship. The
design of any aircraft considers the four forces of flight; Thrust, Drag, Lift and Gravity
(weight).
Figure 15: The four forces of flight
Gravity (weight) is particularly important to airships as it directly affects the amount of
gas (in this case, primarily helium, due to safety concerns regarding hydrogen) required
to provide lighter-than-air buoyancy.
Knowing the average gross weight and gas characteristics being used to provide this lift,
we can accurately estimate the volume of gas required; a major design consideration.
Also key to the design is the target airspeed of 200kph for cruising and a target payload
capacity of 100 tonnes of commercial freight. This speed (very fast for an airship) means
it is imperative drag is minimised in order to manage power and thus fuel requirements
– both extra power and fuel lead to greater weights, leading to a lesser cargo capacity. If
we are to require more than the targeted 100 tonnes commercial freight capacity, this
would mean that the gross weight increases, the volume of gas required to provide lift
increases, the drag increases and thus the power and fuel required to maintain at least
200kph cruising airspeed increases, further increasing the weight of our
craft…potentially a self-perpetuating issue.
To determine a feasible solution using currently available technology, the following
variables were considered:
Total estimated weight of the craft (including cargo)
Cruising speed of the craft
Range
Estimated mechanical efficiencies of components
Fuel cell power-to-weight ratio
Electric motor power-to-weight ratio
generating a number of outputs:
Volume of gas required to provide lighter-than-air buoyancy
Craft dimensions
Drag
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Power requirements
Quantity of fuel required
Resultant estimated weight of systems
Knowing the weight of the systems required to drive a craft with an assumed total
weight, the residual weight for cargo can be determined; theValhallaProject is targeting
100 tonnes.
1.2 Envelope Capacity Relating to Buoyancy
As mentioned, aiming for a 100 tonne cargo capacity, it is reasonable to estimate a gross
weight, including all systems, to determine the total weight these systems require.
Helium has been selected as the source of lift, due to being favourably much lighter than
air. Additionally, helium is non-flammable unlike, somewhat infamously, hydrogen, as
demonstrated by the Hindenburg disaster. How much helium does it take to lift a given
weight?
At sea level, helium has buoyancy of approximately 1kg/m^3: a balloon with a cubic
meter of helium in it could lift a mass of 1kg. Assuming a cruising altitude of 7000ft
AMSL for our airship, helium can lift approximately 0.859 kg/m^3. As this is a
conventional propeller driven craft there is no propulsive efficiency benefits from
climbing to the higher cruising altitudes used by jet aircraft. The craft will typically
operate below 10,000ft AMSL at the altitude that is optimum when taking into
consideration winds, weather, air traffic, terrain and other considerations.
We will neglect intricate temperature-related effects on the buoyancy of helium in air,
and assume that the gasses approximately expand and contract at an equal rate within
our operating temperature and thus the relative buoyancy remains constant. However,
the helium will expand due to the decrease in atmospheric pressure- actually meaning
Valkyries will enjoy somewhat increased buoyancy, despite this the worst-case scenario
is considered.
To properly design the envelope, the effects of frontal area vs. drag vs. structural
implications of the design on the weight of the craft are modelled. Ideally,
theValhallaProject would aim to minimize all three of these factors: however in design of
such a structure there is an interesting paradox:
Some required volume needs to be maintained, so reducing the frontal area
will result in an increase in the length of the craft.
In turn, this increase in length of the craft will increase the surface area of the
craft with respect to volume, and increase the weight of the craft.
To lift this extra weight, additional gas is required, resulting in an increased
volume of the envelope, and greater dimensions; including frontal area.
A sphere is the most efficient shape in terms of optimizing structural weight with
respect to volume; however there is an unacceptable level of frontal area and drag
associated with such a shape.
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Considering this, it is recommended that nominated approximate dimensions remain
proportional to one another with respect to an increasing volume of helium in the
envelope. These are estimated to give an optimal frontal area-to-drag-to-weight ratio.
The craft is 1/5th as wide as it is long
The craft is 1/5.67th as tall as it is long (it is important to reduce the height in
order to minimize the forces associated with cross-directional winds in both
cruising and delicate landing manoeuvres)
Therefore we know the relation of length to volume can be calculated (as length x width
x height = volume) and we can generate an initial conceptual design of the dimensions of
the craft for a given lift capacity.
It is likely that given the ideal performance shape will be highly aerodynamic and
literally “cut corners” from the design, so the height and the width will increase
correspondingly. To calculate the frontal area integral to the drag, power and fuel
figures, multiply the length by the width further by a factor of 1.1 to account for canard
wings and required attachments.
Table 1: Quantity of Helium Required:
Unit
Total Weight of Craft: 231,708.000 kg
Lifting Capacity of helium at 7000 ft: 0.859 kg/m3
Volume of helium required: 269,742.000 m3
Table 2: Dimensions of Craft:
Volume of helium required: 269,742.000 m3
General proportions:
Length: 197.010 m
Width: 39.400 m
Height: 34.740 m
Frontal Area: 1,369.140 m2
Corrected Frontal Area: 1,506.0540 m2
Block surface area: 31,905.14 m2
1.3 Power Requirements Relating to Drag
Having obtained a general envelope volume and frontal area, the amount of drag and
corresponding power required to meet our 200kph cruising airspeed speed can be
examined.
Once again, drag is modelled in a highly simplified manner incorporating safety factors.
Outside of a computer simulation or wind tunnel testing, drag can be estimated using
the formula found below.
Further, to find the mechanical power required to maintain such a speed, the speed of
the craft (in m/s) is multiplied by this limiting drag.
There are a number of losses that must be taken into account, including line losses (both
electrical and fuel-line related), inefficiency of the hydrogen fuel cells, the motor and the
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propellers themselves. Making an estimate of these (multiply 1.35), the chemical energy
required to eventually produce the required speed can be determined.
Table 3: Power required:
Target velocity
(m/s)
(@200kmh)
Fd = Drag Force
(kN) Power (kW)
Total Power Required (kW, taking
into account efficiency losses)
55.55 463.037 25,721 34,723
- Fd is the force of drag (in Newtons)
- ρ is the density of the fluid (in kg/m3): We use an average-case evaluation here, and assume that the density of
air at 7000ft is approximately 1kg/m3.
- v is the velocity of the object relative to the fluid (in m/s): Our velocity at 200kph is 55.56m/s.
- Cd is the drag coefficient (dimensionless): We estimate a reasonable value for our drag coefficient of 0.20 for a
craft of this approximate shape. As a reference, the average automobile would record a value somewhere
between 0.28 and 0.35.
- A is the frontal area (in m2): we estimate a total frontal area of 1500m2
For reference a single Rolls Royce Trent 900 jet engine used on an Airbus A380 can
produce 320kN, compared to this 463kN needed from four motors combined.
1.4 Fuel Requirements and Associated Systems
Integral to the design of the airship itself, and thus the infrastructure required to
maintain and supply the airship, are the power and fuel requirement to meet the stated
speed and range goals.
Having found the power requirements, and knowing the length of the average flight
(7.42 hours @ 200kph), we can estimate our total energy usage through cruising, and
knowing that hydrogen in a fuel cell yields approximately 86MJ per kilogram (whilst
hydrogen’s specific energy is around 120MJ/KGxii) the total average hydrogen
requirement can be estimated.
@200kph: 34,723 kW = 34,723 x 7.42 = 257,644 kWh
Table 4: Average weight (kg) of hydrogen fuel per flight:
Total energy required
(kJ)
Total energy required
(MJ)
Total hydrogen
required (tonnes)
Plus 10% hydrogen
fuel reserve
(tonnes)
927,518,400 927,518.4 10.785 11.863
1 Kilowatt Hour = 3,600 Kilojoules
1MJ = 1,000,000 J
1.4.1 Fuel Cells
Current fuel cell design does not place huge importance on lightweight efficiency and
data regarding cells with the highest power-to-weight ratio is not widely available. To
determine the total weight of the fuel cells required we have used the assumption we
are using commercially available fuel cells at 1W per gramxiii, however we anticipate a
significant improvement upon this figure as design of fuel cells further focus’ on weight
reduction for mobile applications. As far as costing the US Department of Energy
estimates fuel cell costs of $30/kW by 2017 (currently US$47/kw)xiv.
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Table 5: Weight of Fuel Cells:
Power Required* (kW) Assume 1W per gram Total Weight (kg)
Fuel cell cost per
Valkyrie
(US$ million)
34,723 kW 34,723,000 units 34,723 kg 1.041
*@200kph
1.4.2 Hydrogen Storage
Hydrogen is not a dense substance (0.08988 g/L), and in unpressurised gaseous form at
ISA ~12.5 tonnes (Assumes some additional fuel reserve on 11.863 tonnes) of hydrogen
occupies a volume of approximately 139,074 cubic meters. To store this fuel a
pressurised tank is therefore obviously required.
Similarly to the state of fuel cell design, commercial hydrogen storage systems are not
optimized for lightweight mobile applications and huge reductions of weight can be
expected. Currently however, the most advanced pressurised hydrogen storage systems
can store approximately 13 kg of hydrogen per 100kg of system weightxv at a maximum
pressure of around 10,000psi (700 bar).
Table 6: Weight of Fuel Tank:
Hydrogen % per kg total weight 0.13
Hydrogen required 12,500kg
Weight of Fuel + Storage System 108,653 kg
1.5 Primary Propulsion Systems
The hydrogen fuel cells produce electricity, so it follows that an electric motor will be
used to drive some form of propeller. Ultra-modern, high efficiency electric motors
achieve a power density of 4.0kW/kgxvi, and we can thus calculate the weight of our
electric motor.
Advanced blade element theory is beyond this initial report; however we estimate a
total weight of 3 tonnes for the propeller and components. Low weight ‘sprayed on’
Solar PV panels integrated into the upper surfaces of the airship will create additional
electric current to boost thrust during operations that occur during daylight hours but
are also disregarded for this early stage modelling.
Table 7: Weight of Electric Motors:
Power Density (kW/kg) Total power required (kW) Weight of all engines (kg)
4.0 34,723 8,680
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1.6 Other Factors:
1.6.1 Weight of Envelope
Block modelling the structure can determine a rudimentary factor for surface area
based on the length, width and height of the craft.
At this initial stage it appears the most appropriate covering for the craft is doped nylon
polymer, with an approximate weight of 0.211kg per square meter.
Table 8: Weight of Envelope:
Surface area (m2) Corrected surface area (m2) Mass of membrane (kg)
31,955 22,825 4,816
1.6.2 Weight of Structure
Without further advanced structural analysis, we again assume a general value of 0.001
cubic meters of carbon fibre per square meter of surface area. Linking this figure to the
surface area of the craft is appropriate for the reasons mentioned in section 1.2 of this
technical analysis.
Table 9: Weight of Structure:
Surface area (m2) Corrected SA (m2) Volume CF (m3) Mass CF (kg)
31,955.79 22,825.56 22.82556 39,944.73
1.6.3 Weight of Cargo Pod and Locking
We assume a total empty weight of 4 tonnes for the hardware required to secure and
support the payload.
1.6.4 Weight of Extra Components
As well as the weights of the major components discussed above, there are a multitude
of systems required to maintain control over the Valkyrie in various flight situations:
Thrust vectoring on primary propulsion
Canard wings
Low-speed manoeuvrability systems
Avionics and electronics
Docking hardware
The precise weight of these systems is extremely difficult to estimate accurately,
however we assume these would account for a very low percentage of the overall weight
in comparison to the fuel, power systems and structure itself.
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1.6.5 Hydrogen Production
TheValhallaProject system calls for the in-house production of hydrogen fuel for its
airship fleet using ground-based stationary renewable energy sources. To calculate the
highest possible hydrogen fuel requirements for the initial core fleet of ten Valkyrie
aircraft we will assume that they operate at cruise power settings 24 hours a day
providing 100% asset utilisation with nil down time.
First the hourly average hydrogen fuel consumption at cruise power per Valkyrie is
determined:
10,785 / 7.42 = 1,453 kg/hr per airship
Following this the tonnes of hydrogen required each year to fuel the entire system as
proposed can be calculated:
1.45 tonnes per hour x 24 hours x 365 days x 10airships = 127,020 tonnes
This is equivalent to 348 tonnes per day total or 34,800 kilograms of hydrogen per
ground port per day. By comparison the USA currently produces around 11 million
tonnes of hydrogen per yearxvii, mainly from fossil fuel sources.
Using current technology, in order to create 1 kg of hydrogen through water electrolysis
requires around 50 kWh of electricityxviii.
34,800 kg hydrogen x 50 kWh = 1,740,000kWh per day per ground port
Therefore, direct electricity requirements are 1,740MWh per day per ground port to
produce the required hydrogen using fresh water electrolysis.
As all the water used in the process is from seawater desalinated in-house we should
also consider the energy requirements of the electricity intense desalination process.
Based on the atomic properties of water, 1 kg of hydrogen gas requires about 9.01 litres
of desalinated water as feedstockxix. Energy consumption of seawater desalination is 3
kWh/m3 xx. As a conservative requirement of 34,800 kg of hydrogen per day per ground
port has been determined, this will therefore require 313,538 litres of desalinated water
per day; adding an additional 939kWh (~1MWh) electricity requirement to each ground
port each day. It is discovered that this energy requirement is non-material compared to
the energy needed for electrolysis.
Multiplying this electricity need of 1,741MWh per day by 1.25 to account for line losses
and other efficiency considerations gives a total electricity requirement of 2,176MWh
per day per ground port, equivalent to 794,240MWh per year (794,240,000kWh
annually).
It is presumed that suitable solar and wind resources are available in the ASEAN region.
It is beyond the scope of this report to explore solar and wind resource availability in
the ASEAN region in depth or to explore the optimised solar/wind ratio mix. To
illustrate a ballpark consideration of the required stationary renewable energy farm
magnitude and costs let us assume for simplicity at this stage that all energy will be
provided by wind generation. We will assume average annual output of the wind farm at
35% capacity factor in-line with typical industry averagesxxi.
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794,240MWh per year required x 2.857 capacity losses / 365 days / 24 hours = 259MW
yy MW nameplate capacity x 365days x 24hours x 0.35capacity factor = zz MWh per year required
zz= 794,240MWh
yy= unknown
This indicates that ~259MW of wind nameplate capacity will need to be installed for
each ground port.
In 2012 the costs for a utility scale wind turbines in 2012 average about US$1.3 million
per MW of nameplate capacity installedxxii. This indicates that 259MW of wind
nameplate capacity would cost US$336m. Coincidentally, ~250MW is approximately the
average size of a modern wind farm, such as the Lincs Wind Farm mentioned earlier.
1.7 Summary and Conclusions
Using today’s commercially available technology, we would expect to see a craft with
specifications similar to these:
Table 10: Valkyrie Aircraft Specifications
Cruising Airspeed: 200 kph
Average Sector Distance (Singapore Hub): 1,486 km
Typical Flight Time: 7.42 hrs (445mins)
Typical Sector Range: 1,500 km
Target Gross Weight: 250 tonnes
Length: 197 m
Weight: 39.4m
Height: 34.7 m
Payload Capacity: 100 tonnes
Weight of Structure: 39.9 tonnes
Weight of Envelope: 4.8 tonnes
Weight of Empty Cargo Pod: 4 tonnes
Typical Fuel Load (hydrogen): 12.5 tonnes (10.780 tonnes usable)
Fuel Cells*: 34.7 tonnes
Fuel Tank*: 96.1 tonnes
4 x Main Electric Motors: 8.6 tonnes total weight
Hydrogen Fuel Used: 0.4 kg/second
Internalised Hydrogen Fuel Cost (~$1.80 per kgxxiii): ~USD$0.10 per tonne cargo per km
Helium required: 269,742 m3
Note: Airspeeds equal assumed ground speeds during these early calculations
* Significant potential for technology improvement reducing weight
The main areas for improvement in this specification are optimization of the power-to-
weight ratio of hydrogen fuel cells and the hydrogen storage tank weight. These are
issues of hydrogen power applicable to transport in general, as it is likely that a
proportion of future vehicles will use hydrogen as their power source.
Assuming the energy used to create the hydrogen itself is obtained from renewable
sources, the environmental advantages of such a craft are difficult to ignore.
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Initial Route Network
The initial route network would connect a major city from each one of the ASEAN
nations based on a hub and spoke network design around the core trading port of
Singapore. In time this network will grow to span regional networks around the globe.
Figure 16: The Initial route network plan based around major trading port of Singapore
The initial ten major cities proposed for theValhallaProject ASEAN network will be:
1. Singapore (Singapore)
2. Bandar Seri Begawan (Brunei)
3. Phnom Penh (Cambodia)
4. Jakarta (Indonesia)
5. Vientiane (Laos)
6. Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia)
7. Yangon (Myanmar)
8. Manila (Philippines)
9. Bangkok (Thailand)
10. Hanoi (Vietnam)
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SWOT Analysis
A brief summary of the SWOT Analysis with most important considerations:
Strengths
1. The project will revolutionise the air cargo industry, including a step reduction
in its cost base.
2. Although the concept is bold, large-scale and capital intensive it will have
substantial revenue generation capacity and likely be hugely profitable in the
long term.
3. The concept uses no fossil fuel energy only 100% renewable solar and wind
derived energy.
4. All technology required for the project is developed or currently in development
for other commercial purposes.
5. It provides an alternative to the current ‘dead end’ of fossil fuel burning jet
aircraft.
6. This solution provides an air cargo service with a >15% lower cost base than its
competitors. It is not likely that any other company will be able to enter the
market in the ASEAN region using a similar solution due to the nature of
theValhallaProject’s vertical integration, government support and other high
barriers to entry.
7. Being fully vertically integrated closes out many of the ‘middle men’ rife in
aviation.
8. Being in close partnership (quasi-nationalised) with the ASEAN Secretariat will
protect theValhallaProject from competitors.
9. The project will send out a clear message that even the most polluting industries
of the past can become environmentally sustainable, inspiring other industries
to do the same.
10. The project provides the ASEAN region with a nation building project that will
provide cheaper air cargo for the region, providing further development
benefits.
Weaknesses
1. The extremely high-cost barrier to market entry, risks and a forecast several
years before profitability will make the project difficult to finance using
traditional means (bank loans, equity etc), so it will likely need direct
government support (i.e. funding and loan guarantees). By way of example; the
world leading Airbus company which manufactures’ airliners only formed as a
result of the help of European government support once the nationalistic
benefits were made clear, enabling it to compete with the American backed
Boeing Aircraft Company. It is hoped that TheValhallaProject Company could be
supported in a similar means by the ASEAN government.
2. This project is ambitiously grandiose and complex in its vision.
3. The time from project approval to first returns will be approximately 5 years
due to the degree of research, design, construction and development that needs
to occur.
4. The grandiose vision of the concept itself may frighten away those who are
afraid to dream and are of the conservative anti-innovation ilk.
5. The ‘moon shot’ level of complexity of the project may make comprehension of
theValhallaProject’s massive long-term benefits difficult to embrace at first
glance.
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6. This project will create a large scale economic and development improvement
opportunity creating numerous jobs whilst improving the smartness of the
ASEAN region however due to the automation that this project brings there will
be fewer jobs required in air cargo handing and flight crew operations.
Opportunities
1. The ASEAN region is perfectly placed for this concept to be a commercial
success.
2. Excess hydrogen, desalinated water or renewable energy produced could be
sold on to local markets.
3. Although this concept will begin operations with single region network, South
East Asia has the definite long term potential to grow to span regional networks
(short to medium distance operations) around the globe.
4. The technology developed for the project could be used for other economically
beneficial and environmentally friendly commercial applications.
Threats
1. Current incumbent jet aircraft manufacturers may lobby governments and their
agencies to prevent giving the project support, as it will reduce the demand for
such aircraft. The project will need to ensure a public image that garners strong
public support and build close personal relationships to government leaders
(due to the Guanxi-style cultural business practices within the ASEAN region).
2. Similarly, current freight airlines may lobby governments and their agencies to
prevent giving the project support, as this project will step-change outcompete
them. The project will need to ensure a public image that garners strong public
support and build close relationships to government leaders (due to a different
standard in cultural business practices within the ASEAN region).
3. Although unlikely it is possible a completely unexpected discovery is made that
revolutionises the air cargo industry beyond anything that has been foreseen by
science as being possible in the near future. This, however, is possible in any
industry at any time.
4. Optimal operating flight paths that are lower than the jet network and hydrogen
tanks may make theValhallaProject a potential terrorism target for groups
whose motives are difficult to understand. Research and design changes,
including anti-missile systems may be required to negate this threat.
5. Unknown risks that may affect the global market and in turn the international
air cargo industry such as a great and extended economic depression or a large
scale ASEAN regional conflict.
6. The project should be developed carefully in a ‘stage gate’ manner to control for
real and perceived risks.
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Early Business and Organisational Structure
This project will be world’s largest venture initially conceived around an altruistic
purpose. Initially, during the feasibility exploration phase, theValhallaProject will be
advised by a small board of entrepreneurial professionals and reputable concept
ambassadors. They will assist to oversee the project during its infancy which will
involve small teams of subject matter experts each investigating different technology
and commercial challenges whilst developing the strategies and partnerships needed to
achieve the vision of theValhallaProject. During this time it will be important to promote
the concept to government, the community and other stakeholders. A stage-gate project
approach will be taken and as certain goals are met, a proven aerospace industry
management team will be appointed to join first in advisory roles and progressively into
larger management controlling roles. After this infancy stage the project will accelerate
towards full-scale development as feasibility is proven, technology prototyping
completed, commercial partners are established, ASEAN government support is agreed
and funding is approved.
Management and Ownership
Strategic Control
All core stakeholders will have a position whereby they can influence key decisions,
however, an executive management team made up of reputable proven business
professionals will be given the primary decision making power. They will have core
skills covering aviation, energy, freight, finance, marketing, government relations, safety,
sustainability and law.
The majority of project funding is expected to come from traditional debt and equity
providers with remaining backing to come from the ten individual governments of the
ASEAN region. The ASEAN governments will provide government guarantees on the
commercial financing. This will give them ownership rights over the project and in turn
‘final say’ over executive management and direction.
It will operate in a way whereby management control is given to the TheValhallaProject
board of executives whilst the ASEAN Secretariat (in consultation with ASEAN
governments) will sign off on any major changes to the overall strategic mission of the
project, for instance if feasibility or insolvency were to arise.
The ASEAN governments will be a source of funding as, out of all nations, it is this region
that stand to gain the most from theValhallaProject type initiative.
All ASEAN governments will collectively sign up to theValhallaProject because any
nation that does not will know it will miss out on the major economic, social, and
environmental competitive benefits. In time this nationalised nation building project
will be privatised, fairly remunerating taxpayers for their investment.
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Operational Control
The cornerstone cargo logistics company, (ie FedEx, UPS or DHL) will guide and forecast
air freight demand and strategy using their prior strength in this field. The cornerstone
company will receive a ‘first dibs’ access to ongoing capacity. TheValhallaProject
command centre will have the physical control over the theValhallaProject system and
manage the fleet to best meet the requirements of the cargo logistics companies in a fair
and transparent way. The cargo logistics companies will bid for capacity and compete
with one another to attract air cargo customers, in turn keeping their prices down.
Equally they could compete with one another to maximise payment to the
theValhallaProject per tonne/km in order to maintain freight priority over one another.
Once in the system, it would not feasible for them to move back to solely relying on the
fossil fuel jet powered network as they would lose their cost advantage.
Ownership
Once operations are successful and normalised it can be foreseen that company
ownership will continue to be a private-public partnership appearing to be partially
nationalised:
75% Government owned (ASEAN governments)
25% Publicly owned (listed on the Singapore Stock Exchange)
Moving from fully nationalised towards a percentage that is privately owned will give
initial commercial backers the opportunity to eventually crystallise value from their
initial investment and give theValhallaProject the semblance and competitive business
culture of a normal company. Revenues will be distributed as dividends amongst all
shareholder including governments, at a similar level and in a similar way to a regularly
listed company. Around year ten government guarantees will be lifted and the project
will progressively be privatised as governments potentially sell down their stake.
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Key Milestones
Technical Aspects
1. High level concept scoping
2. Initial techno economic feasibility study
3. Comprehensive feasibility study (full business case) and first technology
sourcing
4. Research and design
5. Prototype and pilot operations
6. Full scale development and deployment
Overall Key Business Development Hurdles
1. Proof of concept
2. Application of technology
3. Establishment and protection of IP
4. Identification and initial discussions with potential key partners
5. Identification and agreement to R&D funds
6. Identification and agreement to initial venture capital funds
7. Identification and agreement to full commercialisation funding
8. Full engagement of key partners.
Major Stages
1. High level concept scoping review
2. Initial techno-economic feasibility study
3. Comprehensive feasibility study (full business case)
4. Submission and negotiations with potential partners for support
5. Research and design
6. Prototyping
7. Commercial production (Valkyrie and ground facilities)
8. Implementation and operations
9. Breakeven / Profit (commercial success)
10. Further development of technology and expansion into other regions
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Indicative Timeline
5 Years: Initial research, design, proving and development stage
5 Years: Pre-commercial operational prototyping. Major funding approved.
Full-scale development and implementation
2018-Future: Fully Operational
Near Term Action Plan
1. Develop online communications platform and strategy
2. Promote to high level technology publications, the aviation publications and
foreign policy publications
3. Seek pro-bono subject matter experts to complete scoping review
4. Seek endorsement from reputable aviation, freight and sustainability thought
leaders
5. Continue to investigate and evolve concept
6. Seek private grants to develop concept
7. Pursue early stage government grants
5 Years Initial
Development
5 Years
Implementation
Operational
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Financial Information
This section explains the key assumptions used in the initial financial model.
Capital Development Costs
Similar to all large and complex projects of this nature, capital development costs for
theValhallaProject at this early stages are challenging to forecast. Whilst apparently
conceptually sound from an engineering standpoint, much of the technology proposed
by theValhallaProject is still rapidly evolving. In doing so this is bringing costs down.
Capital development costs are split into those relating to airborne operations and those
relating to ground operations.
Air operations consider the research and development of the Valkyrie aircraft and the
construction of an initial fleet of 10 such aircraft. Calculations indicate that these aircraft
can be produced for approximately US$243m each; this is less than the cost of an Airbus
A380 at approximately US$350million per unit.
Ground operations consider the research, development and construction of the 10
Ground Ports including automated freight facilities, stationary renewable energy
production facilities, desalinisation facilities, hydrogen production facilities and the
technologically advanced software to power this system. Costs are amortised over 20
years.
Table 11: Capital Development Costs
Operations
domain
Component Cost
(million US$)
Refer
Appendix
Air Valkyrie aircraft R&D 1,625 XIV
Air Valkyrie aircraft manufacture
($243m x 10 units)
2,430 XIV
Ground Ground port
($532m x 10 units)
5,320 XIII
Ground System software 100 XIII
TOTAL COST 9,475
Operational and Maintenance Costs
The financial competitive advantage of theValhallaProject lies in the substantial
reduction of the two most significant outgoing operational costs involved with the
movement of air cargo; fuel and labour.
Fuel: The hydrogen fuel used in theValhallaProject is produced in-house using the
electrolysis of freshwater via wind and solar PV stationary electricity generation
facilities. The ownership of the vertically integrated energy supply chain cuts out
intermediaries with a target to reduce this internal cost to less than $1.00 per kilogram
hydrogen. It is aimed that this cost per unit of energy will be substantially lower than
that of conventional jet fuel. As a rule of thumb a kilogram of hydrogen contains a
similar amount of energy as a kilogram of conventional jet fuel. Other benefits that stem
from this vertical integration include locking in long-term supply at a fixed price,
protection from energy cost volatility and the minimisation of operational energy
security risk. Jet fuel expenses typically make up 30% of an airlines total operating
costsxxiv.
Labour: Fully automating the ground handling of containerised air cargo combined with
the full automation of the flight operations themselves will save labour costs
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significantly. Electric motors have lower maintenance requirements than combustion
engines further reducing labour costs. Labour typically makes up ~20% of an airlines
total operating costsxxv.
In theValhallaProject system the operation of lighter-then-air Unmanned Aerial Vehicles
plus the fact that they only carry immobile freight and fly predominantly over the sea
substantially reduces physical risks to the aircraft itself and to people and property on
the ground when compared to the conventional jet network. This reduced risk will lead
to cost savings especially in regards to insurance.
The recurring annual cost relating to the airships is for the maintenance of hardware11.
In modern airlines, maintenance is required at regular intervals and is broadly divided
into Line maintenance and Heavy maintenance. Whilst Line maintenance will occur at
each of the 10 Ground Ports the Heavy maintenance will be conducted at a special
Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul facility. Compared to normal airline industry
standards, a conservative estimate of 1 day and 12 days to complete these respective
checks is given, with cost per maintenance check also considered12. A conservative
buffer of 10% is applied to line maintenance tasks. The fleet of 10 Valkyries is expected
to be fully operational for 300 days per year.
The annual operating costs relating to the maintenance of ground facilities ground
software are assumed to be a function of the initial development costs13. It will be
valuable to include improved software as it becomes available to improve the efficiency
and profitability of the operation.
Table 12: Operational and Maintenance Costs
Operations
domain
Item Cost
(million USD)
Refer
Appendix
Air Maintenance for Valkyrie aircraft (10 units) 195 XV
Ground Software maintenance 30 XII
Ground Ground based hardware maintenance 57 XII
ANNUAL COST 282
At this initial stage of this project, tax, depreciation and inflation rates have not been
considered. Inflation will differ across the respective countries and is a function of the
management of monetary policy from the respective governments. Predictions vary
widely and incorporating this unpredictable element has been ignored for purposes of
simplicity. Whilst domiciled in Singapore theValhallaProject spans several countries and
may be subject to specific legislation. As mentioned earlier, it can be expected that a
large portion of the capital required will come from the governments of ASEAN nations,
their return on investment will be derived from taxes, dividends and share sales.
Depreciation is assumed at the industry standard of 25 years for stationary renewable
energy generation facilities and 25 years for aircraft.
Revenues
The revenue of theValhallaProject will be derived from the core service (air cargo
transport) and ancillary services (renewable electricity, hydrogen and desalinated
water production).
11 Refer Appendix XVI
12 Refer Appendix XVI
13 Refer Appendix XV
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Core service revenue
TheVallhallaProject will aim to sustainably undercut the incumbent jet-powered air
cargo network by an average of 15%. To calculate an initial estimate of the average
revenue per tonne kilometre and inturn the forecast annual revenues we must consider
the pricing of the three largest air freight providers in the ASEAN region: DHL, FedEx
and UPS and find the lowest average revenue per tonne kilometre. Due to the several
global players in this market place it is be assumed that efficient competition is taking
place with pricing driven by underlying fundamental costs and that only a small profit
margin (1-10%) is being derived as is the usual case in the airline industry.
These three companies each have a public facing online calculator and rack rate sheet
for potential customers to estimate the price to ship goods between cities. These
calculations show the project has immense revenue potential, including a forecast
revenue of US$962m for the first year of operation with just 10 Valkyrie airships
covering the ASEAN nations route network.
Figure 17. Association of South East Asian Nations Region
ASEAN countries highlighted in yellow
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Table 13: Average Flight Distances
Flight
Distances
(km)
Bandar Seri
Begawan
(Brunei)
Phnom
Penh
(Cambodia)
Jakarta
(Indonesia)
Vientiane
(Laos)
Kuala
Lumpur
(Malaysia)
Yangon
(Myanmar)
Manila
(Philippines)
Singapore
(Singapore)
Bangkok
(Thailand)
Hanoi
(Vietnam)
Bandar Seri
Begawan
(Brunei)
0.00 1327.00 1467.00 1987.00 1448.00 2434.00 1315.00 1253.00 1860.00 2063.00
Phnom Penh
(Cambodia) 1327.00 0.00 1971.00 752.00 993.00 1108.00 1774.00 1140.00 536.00 1054.00
Jakarta
(Indonesia) 1467.00 1971.00 0.00 2710.00 1180.00 2797.00 2779.00 889.00 2311.00 3011.00
Vientiane
(Laos) 1987.00 752.00 2710.00 0.00 1640.00 696.00 1999.00 1849.00 517.00 481.00
Kuala Lumpur
(Malaysia)
1448.00 993.00 1180.00 1640.00 0.00 1623.00 2466.00 317.00 1178.00 2027.00
Yangon
(Myanmar)
2434.00 1108.00 2797.00 696.00 1623.00 0.00 2669.00 1909.00 575.00 1123.00
Manila
(Philippines)
1315.00 1774.00 2779.00 1999.00 2466.00 2669.00 0.00 2391.00 2211.00 1754.00
Singapore
(Singapore) 1253.00 1140.00 889.00 1849.00 317.00 1909.00 2391.00 0.00 1426.00 2195.00
Bangkok
(Thailand) 1860.00 536.00 2311.00 517.00 1178.00 575.00 2211.00 1426.00 0.00 985.00
Hanoi
(Vietnam) 2063.00 1054.00 3011.00 481.00 2027.00 1123.00 1754.00 2195.00 985.00 0.00
Average Trip
Distance (km)
1683.78 1183.89 2123.89 1403.44 1430.22 1659.33 2150.89 1485.44 1288.78 1632.56
The great circle distances in kilometres between each city pair on the proposed route network
TheValhallaProject route design provides that Singapore will be the centre of the
network hub thus the estimated average revenues per tonne kilometre are based from
this central location.
Table 14: DHL Pricing
Origin Destination
Distance
(km)
Transit time
(hours
@200kmh)
DHL
Zone
DHL quote per
1000kg (SGD)
DHL quote
per
1000kg
(US$)
VP 15%
under-cut
(US$)
Revenue
(US$ per 100
tonne cargo
sector)
Revenue
(US$ per KM
per 100
tonne cargo)
Singapore
Bandar Seri
Begawan
(Brunei)
1253 6.25 2 $12,620 10,853 9,225 922,500 736
Singapore
Phnom Penh
(Cambodia)
1140 5.70 6 $31,120 26,763 22,748 2,274,800 1995
Singapore
Jakarta
(Indonesia)
889 4.45 2 $12,620 10,853 9,225 922,500 1037
Singapore
Vientiane
(Laos)
1849 9.24 6 $31,120 26,763 22,748 2,274,800 1230
Singapore
Kuala Lumpur
(Malaysia)
317 1.58 1 $7,440 6,398 5,438 543,800 1715
Singapore
Yangon
(Myanmar)
1909 9.54 6* $31,120 26,763 22,748 2,274,800 1191
Singapore
Manila
(Philippines)
2391 11.95 2 $12,620 10,853 9,225 922,500 385
Singapore
Bangkok
(Thailand)
1426 7.13 2 $12,620 10,853 9,225 922,500 649
Singapore
Hanoi
(Vietnam)
2195 10.97 3 $13,480 11,592 9,853 985,300 448
Averages N/A 1,486.44 7.42 N/A N/A N/A N/A 1,543,166 1,042
DHL pricing in the ASEAN region to give average sector revenues
Assumptions:
*DHL doesn’t presently ship to Myanmar so assumed similar to Cambodia
FX rate between SGD and USD is assumed to be SGD$1 = USD$ 0.86
Quote specifications:
1000kg non-document by 9am next business day (Express 9am Service)
Using conservative lowest revenue calculation methodology
Prices calculated from the listed DHL freight rack rates.
http://www.dhl.com.sg/content/dam/downloads/sg/express/shipping/dhl_express_rate_and_transit_sg.pdf
Uses the ‘Non-Document above 30kg multiplier rate’ per kg:
ZONE 1: (1000kg x 7.44) = $7,440
ZONE 2: (1000kg x 12.62) = $12,620
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ZONE 3: (1000kg x 13.48) = $13,480
ZONE 6: (1000kg x 30.12) = $31,120
Table 15: FedEx Pricing
Origin Destination
Distance
(km)
Transit time
(hours
@200kmh)
FedEx quote
per 1000kg
(SGD$)
FedEx quote
per 1000kg
(US$)
VP 15%
under-cut
(US$)
Revenue
(US$ per 100
tonne cargo
sector)
Revenue
(US$ per
KM per
100 tonne
cargo)
Singapore
Bandar Seri
Begawan
(Brunei)
1253 6.25 16,960 14,585 12,397 1,239,700 989
Singapore
Phnom Penh
(Cambodia)
1140 5.70 35,568 30,588 25,999 2,599,900 2280
Singapore
Jakarta
(Indonesia)
889 4.45 9,243 9,948 8,455 845,500 951
Singapore
Vientiane
(Laos)
1849 9.24 35,560 30,581 25,993 2,599,300 1405
Singapore
Kuala Lumpur
(Malaysia)
317 1.58 7,020 6,037 5,131 513,100 1618
Singapore
Yangon
(Myanmar)
1909 9.54 35,568 30,588 25,999 2,599,900 1361
Singapore
Manila
(Philippines)
2391 11.95 9,240 7,946 6,754 675,400 282
Singapore
Bangkok
(Thailand)
1426 7.13 9,240 7,946 6,754 675,400 473
Singapore
Hanoi
(Vietnam)
2195 10.97 9,240 7,946 6,754 675,400 307
Averages N/A 1,486.44 7.42 N/A N/A N/A 1,258,177 1,074
FedEx pricing in the ASEAN region to give average sector revenues
Assumptions
Using 50kg freight packages and lowest price publicly available freight rack rate
*FedEx doesn’t presently ship to Myanmar so assumed similar to Cambodia
FX rate between SGD and USD is assumed to be SGD$1 = USD$ 0.86
Quote specifications:
50kg non-document by 9am next business day x 20 = 1000kg
Using conservative lowest revenue calculation methodology
Prices calculated from the listed FedEx Singapore freight rack rates.
https://www.fedex.com/ratefinder/standalone
Table 16: UPS Pricing
Origin Destination
Distance
(km)
Transit time
(hours
@200kmh)
UPS quote
per 1000kg
(SGD$)
UPS quote
per 1000kg
(US$)
VP 15%
under-cut
(US$)
Revenue
(US$ per 100
tonne cargo
sector)
Revenue
(US$ per
KM per
100 tonne
cargo)
Singapore
Bandar Seri
Begawan
(Brunei)
1253 6.25 8,600 7,396 6,286 628,600 501
Singapore
Phnom Penh
(Cambodia)
1140 5.70 44,100 37,926 32,237 3,223,700 2827
Singapore
Jakarta
(Indonesia)
889 4.45 8,600 7,396 6,286 628,600 707
Singapore
Vientiane
(Laos)
1849 9.24 44,100 37,926 32,237 3,223,700 1743
Singapore
Kuala Lumpur
(Malaysia)
317 1.58 5,400 4,644 3,947 394,700 1245
Singapore
Yangon
(Myanmar)
1909 9.54 44,100 37,926 32,237 3,223,700 1688
Singapore
Manila
(Philippines)
2391 11.95 8,600 7,396 6,286 628,600 262
Singapore
Bangkok
(Thailand)
1426 7.13 8,600 7,396 6,286 628,600 440
Singapore
Hanoi
(Vietnam)
2195 10.97 18,400 15,824 13,450 1,345,000 612
Averages N/A 1,486.44 7.42 N/A N/A N/A 1,485,022 1,113
UPS pricing in the ASEAN region to give average sector revenues
Assumptions
*UPS doesn’t presently ship to Myanmar so assumed similar to Cambodia
FX rate between SGD and USD is assumed to be SGD$1 = USD$0.86
Quote specifications:
1000kg freight rate
Using conservative lowest revenue calculation methodology
Prices calculated from the listed UPS Singapore freight rack rates.
https://ups.com/content/sg/en/shipping/cost/download.html
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The above calculations show that FedEx currently has the lowest average sector revenue
per 100 tonnes of air cargo on the proposed route network of theValhallaProject:
US$1,258,177
A 15% reduction on this gives a best-case average sector revenue for theValhallaProject
of:
US$1,069,459
Given that the rates used above are the public commercial rack rates of these air cargo
providers we will assume a worst-case average sector revenue 10 times lower than this:
US$106,945
We will assume 300 operational days per year.
The number of operational days was determined allowing for scheduled maintenance
and a conservative buffer for unforeseen delays, for example due to severe weather such
as typhoons sometimes found in the region.
The Valkyrie aircraft are intended to operate 24hours per day as theValhallaProject
automated concept allows for quick turnaround times, thus enabling an average of three
eight-hour trips per day. Fundamental to the profitability of this project these aircraft
only earn money when airborne so high utilisation rates are important.
Capacity growth for theValhallaProject is given at a steady ten additional airships per
year to catch up to current levels of intra-ASEAN air cargo demand by the tenth year of
operations. It is assumed that the high levels of demand growth predicted by IATA
forecasts for the ASEAN region will occur. As such the optimistic revenue calculations
includes a rapid fleet growth for the number of airships used in the network. According
to IATA forecasts the demand for intra-ASEAN air cargo transport is expected to have
grown 320% from 2007 levels by the proposed tenth year of operations in 2028, leaving
substantial unmet demand.
Therefore, assuming:
US$106,945 worst-case revenue per sector
3 sectors per Valkyrie aircraft per day
10 Valkyrie aircraft
300 operational days per year
Indicative core revenue in Year 1 of operation is calculated as:
= US$962,513,100
Transporting 900,000 tonnes of air cargo
Core service revenue potential is substantial.
Worst-case first 10-Year Accumulated Core Revenue: US$9,625,131,000
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Ancillary service revenue
By the time theValhallaProject is implemented the demand for hydrogen sourced from
renewable means is predicted to be significantly larger. TheValhallaProject can sell
excess hydrogen onto the market. Whilst hydrogen is currently priced around ~$1.80
per kgxxvi, due to the unknown nature of the long term hydrogen price and the
unknown nature of excess supply no estimations for revenues from this potential
ancillary business have been considered. The project will also be able to sell excess
renewable electricity and desalinated water. Operations will be optimised for the
highest profitability. These ancillary revenues options using the foundation ground
infrastructure means that if flight operations of the Valkyrie network are suspended for
whatever reason the ground-based infrastructure will still deliver a return on
investment rather than being stranded assets.
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Triple Bottom Line Benefits
Economic
1. As theValhallaProject uses no fossil fuel it will improve the ASEAN regions’
balance with OPEC nations improving the balance of trade. This current trade
deficit is driven on the back of a significant cash outflow to pay for crude oil
needs. This will keep money in the ASEAN economy, where it will be improving
the standards of living of the ASEAN peoples.
2. It will inject a wealth of technological knowledge into the region, leading to
innovative new technology businesses.
3. It will improve the facilitation and flow of goods around the ASEAN region
providing economic benefits.
4. It will reduce the cost to transport goods around the ASEAN region.
5. It will reduce the flow of air cargo revenues back to the multinational home
countries beyond the ASEAN borders.
Social
1. TheValhallaProject improves regional interdependence (the countries
involved increasingly depend on each other for trade and as a result increasingly
communicate with one another) which promotes regional peace and stability.
2. It will create numerous jobs due to its development scale, and because it will
lower the cost of regional goods transportation and in turn lower the cost of
manufacturing high value products in the ASEAN region more manufacturing
will occur, producing more jobs.
3. Creates local sources of high quality desalinated water (which can be used for
local scientific and medical purposes or as a source of clean drinking water) with
health benefits.
4. Creates local sources of renewable hydrogen which will be a catalyst driver of
the transition towards the ASEAN hydrogen economy.
5. Creates local sources of renewable energy which will help drive further
renewable sources.
Environmental
1. It reduces the amount of greenhouse gas being released into the atmosphere
by eliminating the requirement to burn jet fuel to move each tonnene of air
cargo.
2. The renewable energy infrastructure package needed for each airship port will
establish a renewable energy sector in each ASEAN country which will
transition the region away from dirty fossil fuel..
3. Establishes a base market supply of hydrogen from which hydrogen
economies (for instance hydrogen fuel cell ground transport fleets) can be
grown reducing the need for batteries made out of rare earths that can be
dangerous to health and the environment if disposed of incorrectly.
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General Comments
Today’s growing worldwide awareness and acceptance of climate change science and
the foreseen need for sustainable market transformation will change our way of life. At
the same time as mankind are becoming aware of the implications of global warming,
fortunately fossil fuel oil costs are continuing to trend upwards (as a result of
diminishing supply and accessibility) whilst renewable energy costs continue to trend
downwards (on the back of improved technology). Continuing compounding world
economic growth has set up a market that is becoming increasingly willing to
investigate and adopt game changing technologies to pursue increased business growth,
even more so if it has the side effect of improving sustainability.
This venture is similar to all such commercial aviation projects – it is incredibly
ambitious and capital intensive. It is said “you need a small fortune to make a large
fortune in the aviation industry”; theValhallaProject is an ideal example.
This project will provide a first leap in achieving a workable large-scale solution to the
global air transport energy conundrum and provides significant steps towards achieving
the aviation industry aspirational goal set by Giovanni Bisignani, President of the
International Air Transport Association in 2007 for a “zero emissions” aviation
industryxxvii.
All of the individual technologies proposed in this document have been proven and
development is ongoing14. There is no reason to suspect that the rate of development of
these technologies will slow in the future, rather the opposite as investment in these
areas increases, reducing costs. As a result we anticipate further avenues to improve
upon the stated aims of theValhallaProject.
TheValhallaProject does not suggest any concepts for which a solution has not
previously been proven; it is, however, the first to propose a synergy of many
technologies in a creative and feasible way. This technology integration combined with a
workable implementation strategy will lead to highly favourable returns and wider
community benefits.
The scope for major spin off ventures from technology synergies proven by
theValhallaProject, such as unmanned hydrogen fuel cell powered freight train
networks, is considerable.
In 1961 one person proposed a revolutionary mission statement which became the
mission statement from which Airbus, the world’s leading aircraft manufacturer, would
grow ; “For the purpose of strengthening European co-operation in the field of aviation
technology and thereby promoting economic and technological progress in Europe, to take
appropriate measures for the joint development and production of an airbus.” Last year
Airbus’ revenue exceeded $100billion. TheValhallaProject seeks similar bold goals to
that of Airbus, and raises the benchmark even higher with its noble vision. We need a
revolutionary ‘clean’ trade conveyor belt system for our globalized world…
theValhallaProject will be it.
14 Refer Appendix IX
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Final Point
Implementation of theValhallaProject is in the best interests of all stakeholders; the
shareholders, the governments involved, the world, and you.
“…for the benefit of all mankind”
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Appendices
CONTENTS PAGE
Appendix I 46
Appendix II 47
Appendix III 48
Appendix IV 49
Appendix V 50
Appendix VI 51
Appendix VII 53
Appendix VIII 54
Appendix IX 55
Appendix X 56
Appendix XI 57
Appendix XII 58
Appendix XIII 60
Appendix XIV 61
Appendix XV 63
Appendix XVI 65
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Appendix I)
Crude oil prices will continue their inevitable trend upwards over the long-term
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Appendix II)
Airfreight between Asian countries (including ASEAN members)
continues to be a rapidly growing
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Appendix III)
Airfreight between Asian countries (including ASEAN members)
continues to be substantial
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Appendix IV)
IATA Calls for a zero emissions future
“A growing carbon footprint is no longer politically acceptable-for any
industry. Climate change will limit our future unless we change our
approach from technical to strategic. Air transport must aim to
become an industry that does not pollute - zero emission.”
- International Air Transport Association CEO Giovanni Bisignani, 4 June 2007
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Appendix V)
Labour and Fuel are the two single largest total operating costs items
of the air transport industry
“Based on a sample of the financial reports of 45 major global airlines, fuel
accounted for 25.5% of total operating costs, whilst labour accounted for 23.3%.
Therefore, it can be said that jet fuel and labour make up 48.8% of total
operating costs of the average airline.”
-International Air Transport Association (IATA), June 2007 Economic Briefing
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Appendix VI)
Fossil Jet Fuel Saving Analysis: Example
Route: Average Sector Length for Initial Route Network
1,486.44 KM (1,000.29 NM)
Aircraft: 747-400F
Structural limit payload: 112,630kg (112 tonnes)15
Cargo Capacity (cubic metres)
Main Deck: 604.5
Lower Deck: 173.3
Total= 777.8m³
Source: the Boeing Company
Max Jet Fuel Capacity: 21,6840litres
Source: the Boeing Company
Engines:
Model: CF6-80C
Thrust (per engine): 264kn (59,000lbs)16
Jet Fuel And Times17
Block Fuel 1000nm 20,090kg
Block Fuel 2000nm 39,970kg
Block Fuel 4000nm 77,770kg
Block Time 1000nm 149minutes
Block Time 2000nm 272minutes
Block Time 4000nm 516minutes
THEREFORE:
Interpolated: Approx 20kg jet fuel combusted per nautical mile
20 x 1000 ≈ 20,000 kg combusted on average route
Jet Fuel Prices:
Spot Price Singapore: 198.07 cents per gallon18
Conversion:
JET A1 AVTUR
1 US Gallon equal 3 kg
20,000 3 = 6,666.66 US Gallon
6,666 198.07 = US$ 13,203.34
US Gals Cents per gallon= cost of combusted flight fuel
15 The Boeing Company
16 The Boeing Company
17 ACAS May 2007
18 US Dept. of Energy, August 2007
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13,203.34 112,630 = US$0.117 per kg
US$ flight fuel divided by max payload kilograms = fuel cost per kilogram
Jet Fuel Cost Per Tonne of Freight: US$117.22
Current cost of airfreight per tonne
Sydney-Auckland (similar route sector distance of 1300nm) $800-$1000per tonne19
Ergo:
The elimination of jet fuel outgoings and labour costs would indicatively enable
theValhallaProject to undercut jet-powered incumbent competitors pricing by ~15%.
In addition: - As fuel prices increase the above percentage will increase further
- The jet fuel ‘spot price’ was not the record high, simply a recent random
sample.
- This example is prior to considering money saved by not having a flight crew
or reloading/refuelling crew expected to be approximately another ~10%.
- Savings as a result of nil carbon liability will even further improve percentage.
Time/Distance comparison:
Assume zero winds and optimum flight levels on a typical 1400km theValhallaProject flight
sector where Singapore is the hub.
Jet Aircraft (747freighter): 755 kph – 12.5km per minute
Valkyrie: 200 kph – 3.3km per minute
Sea Shipping: 37 kph (20kts) - 0.6km per minute
Jet Aircraft: 1400km divide by 12.5= 112 minutes = 1.87 hours
Valkyrie: 1400km divide by 3.3 = 424 minutes= 7.07 hours
Sea Shipping: 1400km divide by 0.6 = 2,333 minutes = 38 hours (≈1.6days)
Ergo:
TheValhallaProject can conduct this route comfortably within the 24 hour premium
‘express post’ timeframe and therefore is on an equal footing with jet transport.
19 Source: DHL Website
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Appendix VII)
- ASEAN Secretariat, 1997xxviii
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Appendix VIII)
The etymology of the terminology “Valhalla” and “Valkyrie”
TheValhallaProject derives its name from Norse mythology, in which
‘Valhalla’ is similar to the western interpretation of a place called
‘Heaven’, and where a ‘Valkyrie’ is the equivalent of an ‘Angel’.
- Valhalla, (1896) by Max Brückner
- Valkyrie (c. 1905) by Emil Doepler
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Appendix IX)
The technologies critical to this project are proven:
Solar hydrogen fuel cell system
http ://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SIlWE5LeMQs
Thrust Augmentation Model
http ://youtube.com/watch?v=TogmLM2ACrc
Solar Airship Model
http://youtube.com/watch?v=0VBTKEPAzvA
High Speed Airship Model
http://youtube.com/watch?v=gANM4lduB-w
Auto-land
http://youtube.com/watch?v=uYB4NOv_I7Q
Fuel Cell
http://youtube.com/watch?v=oy8dzOB-Ykg
Fuel Cell Aircraft (prop driven)
http://youtube.com/watch?v=s4NSUA-soKs
UAV(Unmanned aerial vehicle)
http://youtube.com/watch?v=bsowPKvcIxo
http://youtube.com/watch?v=KLTK_xwPAl0
ADS-B(Traffic management)
http://www.airspacemag.com/issues/2006/october-
november/how_things_work.php
Highway-In-The-Sky (HITS)(Air navigation)
http://www.urf.com/madl/papers/Dascpaper.pdf
Model Airship company
http://hyperblimp.com/
Leading photo voltaic companies
http://www.conergy.de/en/desktopdefault.aspx
http://www.csgsolar.com/pages/product.php?lang=en
Cheap flexible solar panel research
http://www.research.uky.edu/odyssey/winter07/green_energy.html
Wind Turbines
http://www.roaring40s.com.au/home.html
Automatic Air-to-Air refuelling(For airship docking/landing system)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4W8CofT9-kE
Predictive rather than reactive landing system using Doppler wind radar.
http://mirror.bom.gov.au/products/IDR02I.loop.shtml?looping=0&reloaded=0&to
pography=true&locations=true&range=true#skip
Spray on Solar Panels
http://www.research.uky.edu/odyssey/winter07/green_energy.html
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Appendix X)
The electrochemical process of a hydrogen fuel cellxxix
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Appendix XI)
A diagram of the global distribution of average solar insolation factors that
indicates the suitably of the ASEAN region for solar photovoltaic stationary
energy generation farms. It indicates that the ASEAN region could have
reasonable solar resources available to it.
Global solar insolation averages
xxx
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Appendix XII)
Initial costing for each airship port ground facility
At this stage costs are assumed based upon technical intuition.
Item US$
Land 50,000,000
Hydrogen Production & Storage 10,000,000
Desalination Plant 10,000,000
Solar Farm 150,000,000
Wind Farm 150,000,000
Ground based cargo handling facility for 150 ULD units 46,875,000
Cargo pod loading 50,000,000
Airship docking & launch site 10,000,000
Valkyrie MRO Facility 50,000,000
Ground based sensor equipment for flights 1,000,000
Local Control Centre 1,000,000
Total $532,000,000
Comments/Assumptions for Capital Items:
Land purchase: TheValhallaProject will purchase the land and surrounding water for constructing
the various ground facilities and well as land for the solar/wind farms. It is expected that the
success of theValhallaProject is based on getting the governments of the ASEAN countries on
board. The ASEAN Governments own the land and a nominal price estimated for the use of this
land so this land cost is conservatively excessive.
Hydrogen Production & Storage: The renewable hydrogen production facility will split the
purified water from the desalination plant into Hydrogen and Oxygen gas, pressurising and
liquefying it. This is an assumption for the cost of developing such a production facility. No data is
available to make a comparison as no similar facility could be found. This will include the
respective storage tanks for hydrogen before being loaded onto the airships.
Desalination Plant: To service the hydrogen fuel requirements desalinated water is demanded.
Approximately 313,538 litres per day are required. A desalinization facility to service this
demand will cost in the order of US$10 million.
Solar Farm / Wind Farm: As was established in the initial technical feasibility review each
ground port will require approximately 794,000MWh per year which will require a wind farm of
about 259MW. In 2012 it currently costs about US1.3 million per MW of installed capacity so it
can be presumed that the Solar Farm / Wind Farm will cost around US$300 million per ground
site.
Total installed capacity required per
ground port ~260MW US$ million
Solar Farm (50%) 150
Wind Farm (50%) 150
TOTAL COST 300