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McKinsey Survey: Chinese consumer sentiment during the coronavirus crisis

McKinsey on Marketing & Sales
2 Dec 2021
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McKinsey Survey: Chinese consumer sentiment during the coronavirus crisis

  1. McKinsey & Company 1 Five emerging consumer themes in October 2021 1 2 5 4 3 Optimism peaks as spend recovers Optimism climbs to a new high as more than 80% of consumers report their routines are back to normal Net intended consumer spend is flat to growing across most categories Digital gains traction Stores remain a primary channel, but consumers report high use of omnichannel in a few surprising categories (e.g., grocery) Consumers who have used alternatives to in- store shopping report more frequent usage in the past three months Holiday shopping started as usual 64% of consumers report they are excited for the holidays, with many planning to maintain last year’s spending level on gifts Consumers most often plan to shop in stores (58%) but also online via retailer (51%) and brand (47%) websites Modified return to out-of-home More than 80% of consumers indicate they are already engaging in many “normal” out-of-home activities—70% of them with modified behavior Travel and crowded entertainment events are seeing the lowest engagement (<50%) Loyalty shake-up continues Roughly half of consumers report they will switch product, brand, or retailer when faced with shortages Almost 90% of consumers have tried new shopping behaviors in the past three months
  2. McKinsey & Company 2 Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after COVID-191 % of respondents 15 14 13 17 17 22 21 32 22 41 49 52 50 50 46 65 67 74 44 37 35 33 33 32 14 1 5 Mixed The economy will be impacted for 6–12 months or longer and will stagnate or show slow growth thereafter Pessimistic: COVID-19 will have lasting impact on the economy and show regression or fall into lengthy recession Optimistic: The economy will rebound within 2–3 months and grow just as strong as or stronger than before COVID-19 Consumers in China report high levels of optimism about their country’s economic recovery 1. Q: What is your overall confidence level surrounding economic conditions after the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (ie, once there is herd immunity)? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic.” Bars may not sum to 100% due to rounding. Optimism peaks as spend recovers | Current as of October 2021 US Germany 10/15–22 UK 10/15–22 10/9–15 Italy 10/15–22 France 10/15–22 Change in % optimistic vs Feb survey, percentage points 3 3 13 14 18 Spain 10/15–22 16 India 10/18–25 3 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Consumer Pulse Survey China 10/17–22 6 2 Japan 10/18–20
  3. McKinsey & Company 3 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1187; 2/20–3/8/2021, n = 1,128; 12/11–12/15/2020, n = 1,199; 9/16–9/24/2020, n = 1,123; 6/15–6/21/2020, n = 1,249; 5/19–5/25/2020, n = 1,285; 5/5–5/11/2020, n = 1,257; 4/15–4/19/2020, n = 1,220; 4/8–4/13/2020, n = 1,216; 4/1–4/6/2020, n = 1,896; 3/25–3/30/2020, n = 1,048; 3/20–2/23/2020, n = 1,225; 2/21– 2/24/2020, n = 1,249, including Hubei province, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18–65 years old 5% 3% 5% 5% 4% 56 47 43 40 43 38 36 37 32 43 48 54 55 52 58 61 61 67 Apr 20202 Mar 20202 Feb 2020 1% Sept 2020 Oct 2021 Feb 2021 Dec 2020 June 2020 May 20202 2% 1% 3% Mixed: The economy will be impacted for 6–12 months or longer and will stagnate or show slow growth thereafter Pessimistic: COVID-19 will have lasting impact on the economy and show regression/fall into lengthy recession Optimistic: The economy will rebound within 2–3 months and grow just as strong as or stronger than before COVID-19 Nearly seven in ten consumers in China report an optimistic view of recovery—the highest level since the start of COVID-19 Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after COVID-19,1 % of respondents 1. Q: What is your overall confidence level surrounding economic conditions after the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (ie, once there is herd immunity)? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic.” Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2. Average of weekly pulse surveys shown for Mar–May 2020. Optimism peaks as spend recovers | Current as of October 2021
  4. McKinsey & Company 4 Medium- and high-income consumers report greater optimism since February 2021 39 64 57 55 59 55 63 70 58 61 83 70 20 0 10 50 30 40 60 80 90 Sept 2020 Dec 2020 Feb 2021 Oct 2021 58 Low (<14k renminbi) Medium (14k–30k renminbi) High (>30k renminbi) 52 43 45 40 44 28 37 16 60 30 90 10 0 70 20 50 40 80 Sept 2020 35 40 36 Dec 2020 38 Feb 2021 Oct 2021 1. Q: What is your overall confidence level surrounding economic conditions after the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (ie, once there is herd immunity)? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic.” Optimism by income Pessimism by income Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after COVID-19 by income level,1 % of respondents Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,187; 2/20–3/8/2021, n = 1,128; 12/11–12/15/2020, n= 1,199; 9/16–9/24/2020, n = 1,123; 6/15–6/21/2020, n = 1,249; 5/19–5/25/2020, including Hubei province, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18–65 years old Optimism peaks as spend recovers | Current as of October 2021
  5. McKinsey & Company 5 Relatively stable levels of optimism seen across age groups; vaccinated consumers indicate more optimism than unvaccinated Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after COVID-191 % of respondents 50 31 50 68 1 Vaccinated 0 Unvaccinated 1. Q: What is your overall confidence level surrounding economic conditions after the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (ie, once there is herd immunity)? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic.” 2. Baby boomers includes silent generation. 36 28 33 70 63 71 65 Gen X 29 1 Gen Z Millennials Baby boomers2 2 1 1 Optimistic Mixed Pessimistic By generation By vaccination status Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,187, including Hubei province, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18–65 years old Optimism peaks as spend recovers | Current as of October 2021
  6. McKinsey & Company 6 81 87 87 68 9 10 9 7 10 3 4 25 Millennials Gen X Gen Z Baby boomers3 83 81 9 8 8 11 Vaccinated Unvaccinated 83 9 8 Overall 1. Q: When do you expect your routines will return to normal? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2. Q: Which best describes your vaccination status? 3. Baby boomers includes silent generation. In or after 2022 In 2021 Not affected/already returned By generation By vaccination status2 Vaccinated and unvaccinated consumers report similar expectations for when routines will return to normal Overall, more than 90 percent of consumers indicate their routines will be back to normal in 2021; older consumers are at 75 percent Expectations for routines returning to normal,1 % of respondents Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,187, including Hubei province, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18–65 years old Optimism peaks as spend recovers | Current as of October 2021
  7. McKinsey & Company 7 The impact of COVID-19 on household finances appears to be stabilizing since February 2021 Reduced slightly/a lot About the same Increased slightly/a lot Past 2 weeks 69 11 60 19 11 28 Past 2 weeks 26 63 11 Past 2 weeks 9 62 19 21 29 61 Past 2 weeks Past 2 weeks 26 66 8 Past 2 weeks 59 27 10 Past 2 weeks 63 Past 2 weeks 18 23 22 19 59 Past 2 weeks 1. Q: How has the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis affected the following over the past 2 weeks? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. Household income Household spending Household savings Dec 2020 Feb 2021 Oct 2021 Dec 2020 Feb 2021 Oct 2021 Dec 2020 Feb 2021 Oct 2021 COVID-19 impact on household finances,1 % of respondents Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,187; 2/20–3/8/2021, n = 1,128; 12/11–12/15/2020, n = 1,199, including Hubei province, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18–65 years old Optimism peaks as spend recovers | Current as of October 2021
  8. McKinsey & Company 8 Overall, 81 percent of consumers in China report their finances are back to normal or were not affected 82 83 81 76 8 6 8 5 10 11 11 19 Baby boomers3 Gen Z Millennials Gen X 82 69 7 7 11 24 Vaccinated Unvaccinated In or after 2022 In 2021 Not affected/already returned 81 7 12 Overall 1. Q: When do you expect your personal/household finances will return to normal? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2. Q: Which best describes your vaccination status? 3. Baby boomers includes silent generation. By generation By vaccination status2 Baby boomers and the unvaccinated are slightly more likely than others to be pessimistic: 19% and 24%, respectively, predict their finances will return to normal in 2022 or later Expectations for personal/household finances returning to normal,1 % of respondents Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,187, including Hubei province, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18–65 years old Optimism peaks as spend recovers | Current as of October 2021
  9. McKinsey & Company 9 Consumers’ plans to splurge remain consistent with early 2021, with about 50 percent reporting they plan to treat themselves 1. Q: With regard to products and services you will spend money on, do you plan to splurge/treat yourself in 2021? For example, are there categories of products or services you have spent less on over the last year and a half which you feel you will spend more on now? 2. Baby boomers includes silent generation. 3. Small sample size (n < 25). Plan on splurging 49 48 Do not plan on splurging Oct 2021 52 Feb 2021 51 Millennials Gen X Baby boomers2 47% N/A 60% 15 Gen Z 100%3 N/A 56% N/A 51% 11 35% −23 45% N/A 62% 19 50% 0 42% N/A 42% 12 41% 11 Generation Respondents who plan/do not plan to splurge/treat themselves in 20211 % of respondents Low (<14k renminbi) Medium (14k–30k renminbi) High (>30k renminbi) >70% <30% 50–70% 30–50% p.p. change from Feb 21 XX Respondents who plan to splurge, by household income, % Change < −10 pp . Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,187; 2/20–3/8/2021, n = 1,128, including Hubei province, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18–65 years old Optimism peaks as spend recovers | Current as of October 2021
  10. McKinsey & Company 10 Among consumers intending to splurge, top spend categories are fashion and out-of-home activities, such as travel and restaurants Categories where consumers intend to treat themselves1 % of all respondents with intent to splurge 1. Q: You mentioned that you plan to splurge/treat yourself in next 6 months. Which categories do you intend to treat yourself to? Please select all that apply. 2. Baby boomers includes silent generation. 37 35 31 29 28 27 24 24 23 20 20 19 19 Electronics Restaurants, dining out, bars Apparel, shoes, accessories Out-of-home entertainment Travel, lodging, and vacation Fitness, sports, and outdoors Personal services Household essentials Items for your home Pets Makeup, skin-care products Sports apparel and equipment Outdoor living Millennials Gen X Gen Z Baby boomers2 41 41 35 28 26 37 38 35 23 33 38 26 24 33 31 23 24 30 23 33 27 31 25 19 16 29 28 19 32 19 24 25 20 24 24 25 Generational cut 20 19 24 20 28 17 22 16 22 17 19 20 26 12 17 29 Change from Feb 2021, percentage points Between −3 and 3 < −3 >3 −3 −1 −1 −1 0 −2 −1 −15 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A Categories Difference from all respondents, percentage points Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,187; 2/20–3/8/2021, n = 1,128, including Hubei province, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18–65 years old Optimism peaks as spend recovers | Current as of October 2021
  11. McKinsey & Company 11 Consumers report mixed spending intentions across categories— strongest for fashion, beauty, and at-home entertainment Net intent > 1 Net intent −15 to 0 Net intent < −15 12 6 19 15 16 19 8 7 18 6 12 16 11 12 16 16 19 16 14 20 13 9 15 13 13 9 8 3 4 Footwear Apparel Restaurant Sports and outdoors Groceries Food takeout and delivery 2 Tobacco products Household supplies Alcohol 3 Quick-service restaurant Jewelry 10 Accessories Toys and baby 5 4 Personal-care products Skin care and makeup 3 5 Home and furniture Home improvement, garden Kitchen and dining Decrease Stay the same Increase 11 7 9 12 8 7 6 11 16 12 16 21 25 28 15 17 9 24 19 13 12 16 8 15 7 13 11 9 Consumer electronics 10 3 Entertainment at home Pet food and supplies Pet-care services 5 Vehicles Vitamins and OTC medicine Books/magazines/newspapers International flights Out-of-home entertainment Fitness and wellness Personal-care services Gasoline 5 3 Short-term home rentals Travel by car 1 Cruises Adventures and tours 4 Hotel/resort stays 10 Domestic flights Net intent2 3 15 7 5 5 10 −3 −1 −9 −3 −20 −14 −24 −6 −2 2 1. Q: Over the next 2–3 months, do you expect that you will spend more, about the same, or less money on these categories than usual? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2. Net intent is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they expect to decrease spending from the % of respondents stating they expect to increase spending. Expected spending per category over the next 2–3 months vs. usual1 % of respondents who bought these categories at least once since 2019 −2 0 −1 −6 −3 −5 7 −2 −1 −3 −2 −3 −1 −2 0 −3 5 1 Change since Feb 2021 Change since Feb 2021 −2 −1 −3 −3 −2 −4 −3 −2 −4 0 −3 0 5 0 6 −1 7 −1 −38 20 Net intent2 2 −1 5 9 −7 −4 −7 1 0 0 8 7 3 9 10 4 0 −8 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,187, including Hubei province, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18–65 years old Optimism peaks as spend recovers | Current as of October 2021
  12. McKinsey & Company 12 −10 10 −20 0 20 30 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 Sept 2020 May 2020 June 2020 Dec 2020 Feb 2021 Oct 2021 Expected spending per category over the next 2–3 months vs usual1 Net intent2 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,187; 2/20–3/8/2021, n = 1,128; 12/11–12/15/2020, n = 1,199; 9/16–9/24/2020, n = 1,123; 6/15–6/21/2020, n = 1,249; 5/19–5/25/2020, n = 1,285; 5/5–5/11/2020, n = 1,257; 4/15–4/19/2020, n = 1,220; 4/8–4/13/2020, n = 1,216; 4/1–4/6/2020, n = 1,896; 3/25–3/30/2020, n = 1,048; 3/20–2/23/2020, n = 1,225; 2/21– 2/24/2020, n = 1,249, including Hubei province, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18–65 years old Spending net intent across categories is slightly below levels seen in February 2021 Groceries Household supplies Fitness and wellness ​Personal-care products Skin care and makeup Consumer electronics Apparel 1. Q: Over the next 2–3 months, do you expect that you will spend more, about the same, or less money on these categories than usual? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2. Net intent is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they expect to decrease spending from the % of respondents stating they expect to increase spending. Optimism peaks as spend recovers | Current as of October 2021
  13. McKinsey & Company 13 1. Q: Which best described how you have researched the following categories over the last 3 months? 2. Q: Which best describes how you have purchased the following categories over the last 3 months? 82 69 58 55 48 42 42 38 37 32 29 24 23 20 15 15 20 17 34 35 45 49 46 55 36 40 28 56 55 75 3 11 25 11 17 13 9 16 8 32 31 48 21 25 10 Fitness and wellness services Home decoration and furniture Sports and outdoors equipment, supplies Vitamins, supplements, OTC medicine Kitchen and dining Footwear Jewelry Apparel Groceries Personal-care products Household supplies Pet food and supplies Skin care and makeup Consumer electronics Accessories Research and purchase only in stores Omnichannel Research and purchase only online Stores appear to be a predominant channel for several categories but omnichannel shopping is well established in a few others Digital gains traction | Current as of October 2021 Product searches1 and purchases2 by channel % of respondents who purchased and searched in these categories in the last 3 months Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,187; including Hubei province, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18–65 years old
  14. McKinsey & Company 14 Consumers report social-media influence across categories, including some reach into older generations Digital gains traction | Current as of October 2021 1. Q: Think about the purchases you have made in the following categories over the past 3 months. Were you influenced towards a certain brand by a post on social media in the following categories? 2. Baby boomers includes silent generation. 3. Received no responses 36 33 32 32 31 30 27 26 25 25 20 18 16 14 13 11 Accessories Food takeout or delivery Kitchen and dining Consumer electronics Alcoholic beverages Skin care and makeup Groceries/food for home Apparel Personal-care products Footwear Household supplies Vitamins, supplements, and OTC medicine Books, magazines, newspapers Tobacco products and smoking supplies Toys and baby supplies Pet food and supplies Millennials Gen X Gen Z Baby boomers2 55 22 21 38 36 34 03 43 37 24 23 42 39 20 18 29 30 36 28 32 35 27 22 36 30 15 15 42 29 20 11 37 27 19 16 Generational cut 55 18 18 17 24 27 15 9 24 23 18 7 35 19 8 7 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,187, including Hubei province, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18–65 years old Between −3 and 3 < −3 >3 Categories Categories where respondents were influenced by social media1 % of all respondents who purchased in these categories in the last 3 months 16 35 43 20 13 9 6 15 4 13 13 18 11 Difference from all respondents, percentage points
  15. McKinsey & Company 15 23 83 75 3 77 9 61 13 60 20 15 65 13 53 70 10 9 22 17 70 27 9 70 12 22 69 19 13 22 7 69 27 24 22 8 67 67 11 14 18 12 21 Among consumers saying they have used alternatives to their normal in-store shopping, most report continued or increased use Digital gains traction | Current as of October 2021 Using less Using same Using more Used a food delivery provider Self-checkout or scan-and-go at a physical store Buy online, pick up in store Curbside delivery at a store Purchased secondhand products online Downloaded/used deal-finding plug-ins Downloaded/used a new store/restaurant app Purchased directly from social media Used an app/website for same-day delivery Used an app/website for delivery within 2 hours Shopped at a store I had not shopped at before for groceries Changed my primary grocery store Cooked regularly for myself/my family Personal care/grooming at home 64 15 21 19 11 16 16 20 13 11 10 21 32 25 Used or did in last 3 months % of total respondents 1. Q: And have you used or done any of the following in the last 3 months? If yes, Q: Which best describes when you have done or used each of these items? Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,187, including Hubei province, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18–65 years old Frequency of participating1 % of consumers who report participating in the activity in the last 3 months
  16. McKinsey & Company 16 Across digital activities, more than four in ten consumers report increased use, especially for socializing and children’s learning Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,187, including Hubei province, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18–65 years old Digital gains traction | Current as of October 2021 7 11 11 53 29 45 6 41 7 45 4 46 48 7 49 5 33 60 48 59 8 30 42 44 50 8 57 35 49 68 27 46 5 50 6 45 43 8 6 7 52 41 48 4 64 68 71 21 7 51 25 Frequency of participating1 % of respondents who say they have participated in the activity in the last 3 months Wellness app Digital workout bike or machine Online personal training/fitness Grocery delivery Restaurant food delivery Meal kit delivery Online streaming Video conferencing for professional use Virtual hangouts and video chats for personal use Telemedicine for physical health care Telemedicine for mental health care Playing online games Watching online games Remote learning for myself Remote learning for my kids Used social media Used TikTok 18 13 16 74 56 16 70 28 85 6 18 27 8 24 21 86 41 Used or did in last 3 months % of total respondents Using less Using same Using more 1. Q: And have you used or done any of the following in the last 3 months? If yes, Q: Which best describes when you have done or used each of these items?
  17. McKinsey & Company 17 When faced with stockouts, about one-third of consumers substituted product, brand, or retailer to make a purchase Loyalty shake-up continues | Current as of October 2021 1. Q: Over the last 3 months, have you wanted to buy something and not been able to purchase it because it was out of stock or otherwise not available? 2. Q: The most recent time this happened (when you wanted to buy something and it was not available), what did you do? Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,187, including Hubei province, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18–65 years old 39 61 Oct 2021 Could not purchase at least 1 item Able to purchase all items Respondents who planned to purchase something but could not, due to unavailability1 % of respondents 19 21 11 14 35 Bought the product at a different retailer Bought a different brand or similar product at a different retailer Waited until product was available at the same retailer Bought a different product at the same retailer Did not buy anything Consumer responses to stockouts2 % of respondents who could not make a planned purchase
  18. McKinsey & Company 18 87 36 35 26 26 25 Different brand Different retailer/store/website Any new shopping behavior New shopping method New digital shopping method New shopping method3 Loyalty shake-up continues | Current as of October 2021 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,187, including Hubei province, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18–65 years old Gen Z Millennials 86 88 32 39 29 38 27 27 19 28 25 26 Generational cut All consumers Between −3 and 3 < −3 >3 1. Q: Over the past 3 months, which of the following have you done? 34% replied “None of these.” 2. Baby boomers includes silent generation. 3. “New shopping method” includes curbside pickup and delivery apps. Behaviors in past 3 months1 % of respondents Almost 90 percent of consumers say they have tried out a new shopping behavior in the past three months Difference from all respondents, percentage points Gen X Baby boomers2 82 96 33 39 30 41 26 23 25 29 21 32
  19. McKinsey & Company 19 Reason for trying a new brand since COVID-19 began1 % of respondents who tried a new brand since COVID-19 began Loyalty shake-up continues | Current as of October 2021 1. Q: You mentioned you tried a new/different brand than what you normally buy. What were the main reasons that drove this decision? Select up to 3 relevant reasons. “Brand” includes different brand, new private label/store brand. Overarching reason based on % of individual respondents responding to at least 1 reason in the group. 2. Baby boomers includes silent generation. Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,187, including Hubei province, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18–65 years old Better prices, promotions Better value Supporting local businesses Is more sustainable/better for the environment 11 Better shipping/delivery cost Larger package sizes The company treats its employees well 2 Shares my values 5 6 Wanted variety/a change from my normal routine Wanted to treat myself Better quality 2 Is natural/organic Cleaner/has better hygiene measures 15 Products are in stock Wanted to try a new product Wanted to try a new brand I found Is available where I’m shopping 27 23 17 25 23 9 29 21 23 24 17 Health/hygiene Availability Personal choice Quality/organic Novelty Convenience Purpose-driven 49 Value 51 43 39 24 8 5 17 Baby boomers2 Gen Z and millennials Gen X 28 31 24 26 16 23 18 15 15 3 2 1 26 18 27 14 15 15 12 11 9 8 16 4 32 20 29 22 15 25 23 21 23 23 21 23 28 26 15 18 7 23 4 13 5 3 3 1 3 10 6 All consumers Between −3 and 3 < −3 >3 Consumers in China point to value and purpose-driven considerations as primary drivers of brand switching x Net % of respondents per category Difference from all respondents, percentage points
  20. McKinsey & Company 20 Modified return to out-of-home | Current as of October 2021 84 66 85 81 41 Feb 2021 Oct 2021 Dec 2020 Sept 2020 June 2021 Overall 84 Vaccinated Unvaccinated 77 87 83 Gen Z Millennials Gen X Baby boomers3 80 88 High (>30k renminbi) Low (<14k renminbi) 83 83 Medium (14k– 30k renminbi) 94 1. Q: Which best describes when you will regularly return to stores, restaurants, and other out-of-home activities? Chart shows those already participating in these activities. 2. Gen Z are people under 25 years old, millennials are 25–44 years old, Gen X are 45–54 years old, and baby boomers are 55 years old and above. 3. Baby boomers includes silent generation. Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,187; 2/20–3/8/2021, n = 1,128; 12/11–12/15/2020, n = 1,199; 9/16–9/24/2020, n = 1,123; 6/15–6/21/2020, n = 1,249, including Hubei province, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18–65 years old By generation2 By vaccination adoption By income 88% of baby boomers are doing out-of-home activities 94% of higher-income households are doing out-of-home activities 84% of people who are unvaccinated are doing out-of-home activities Consumers engaging in ‘normal’ out-of-home activities,1 % of respondents Over 80 percent of consumers are engaging in ‘normal’ out-of-home activities, including 94 percent of higher-income households
  21. McKinsey & Company 21 Out-of-home activities done in the past 2 weeks1 % of respondents who engaged in the activity at least once prior to COVID-19 Modified return to out-of-home | Current as of October 2021 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,187, including Hubei province, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18–65 years old 1. Q: Did you leave your house for the following activities over the past 2 weeks? Social Personal care Entertain- ment 73 70 55 33 46 51 41 70 74 Visit a crowded outdoor public place Go to a hair or nail salon Go to the gym or fitness studio Attend an indoor cultural event Dine indoors at a restaurant or bar Go out for family entertainment Attend an outdoor event Get together with family Get together with friends 99 96 87 74 38 95 87 28 25 26 24 Travel more than 2 hours by car Rent a short-term home Work outside my home Shop for groceries/necessities Use a ride-sharing service Shop for non-necessities Travel by train Travel by airplane Go to a shopping mall Use public transportation Stay in a hotel Work Shopping Transport/ travel ≥50% <50% Most consumers are returning to work, grocery shopping, and public transport; majorities are trying other out-of-home activities
  22. McKinsey & Company 22 1. Q: With the rise of the Delta variant of COVID-19, how, if at all, has your out-of-home behavior changed? Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,187, including Hubei province, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18–65 years old 14 22 35 61 61 57 24 16 7 1 Low (<14k renminbi) Medium (14k– 30k renminbi) 1 High (>30k renminbi) 1 Modified return to out-of-home | Current as of October 2021 20 28 61 58 18 11 1 Vaccinated 3 Unvaccinated 20 61 18 1 Overall Engage with adjusted behavior Engage less Engage same as before Delta Engage more By income By vaccination status High-income consumers are likelier than other segments to report engaging in out-of-home activities the same as or more than before the spread of the Delta variant Adjustments to out-of-home behavior due to prevalence of Delta variant,1 % of respondents Roughly 80 percent of consumers have changed the way they engage in out-of-home activities because of the Delta variant
  23. McKinsey & Company 23 Modified return to out-of-home | Current as of October 2021 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,187, including Hubei province, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18–65 years old 1. Q: Which best describes how you are engaging in each of these activities? Possible answers: “Not doing this at all”; “Doing this in the same way as pre-COVID-19, but less often”; “Doing this in a modified way vs. pre-COVID-19”; “Doing this just as much and in the same way as I did pre-COVID-19.” Work Shopping Transport/ travel Social Personal care Entertain- ment 84 78 16 Visit a crowded outdoor public place 22 20 Dine indoors at a restaurant or bar 83 22 Go out for family entertainment Attend an indoor cultural event 80 21 79 Attend an outdoor event 78 22 78 Go to a hair or nail salon 17 Go to the gym or fitness studio 25 75 Get together with family 20 80 Get together with friends 79 Use a ride-sharing service Travel by airplane 18 Shop for non-necessities 84 Stay in a hotel 16 26 Work outside my home 21 Shop for groceries/necessities 74 14 86 78 Go to a shopping mall 20 80 Travel more than 2 hours by car 82 Use public transportation 78 19 81 22 82 20 80 Travel by train 22 18 Rent a short-term home Doing less, doing in a modified way Doing as much as and in the same way as pre-COVID-19 The share of consumers who have modified their out-of-home behavior ranges from 74 to 86 percent, depending on the activity Engagement in out-of-home activities,1 % of respondents
  24. McKinsey & Company 24 Main life events done in the last 12 months as a result of COVID,1 % of respondents Modified return to out-of-home | Current as of October 2021 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,187; 2/20–3/8/2021, n = 1,128, including Hubei province, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18–65 years old Change >3 pp 49 11 17 12 9 15 5 5 5 4 Got a new pet at home (eg, dog, cat) Worked more from home Set up a specific work-from-home space Decided to change jobs Started homeschooling children3 Set up a gym at home Renovated/remodeled my home Moved into a bigger home Sold a property Moved into a smaller home Bought a property 0 Work/study change Oct 2021 Pet adoption House move Home renovation Investments/ divestments Total2 Change from Feb 2021, percentage points 0 2 4 0 1 3 2 1 −8 2 0 15 56 10 31 9 1. Q: Which of the following have you done in the last 12 months as a result of the COVID-19 crisis? 2. Total percentage of people who choose option(s) in the category. 3. Received 0 answers. Though less consumers report working from home since February, investing in home environments continues during COVID-19
  25. McKinsey & Company 25 Two-thirds of consumers are excited about the 2021 holiday shopping season; higher-income consumers are excited most often Holiday shopping started as usual | Current as of October 2021 18 22 22 21 13 15 16 13 68 63 62 65 Baby boomers2 Gen X Gen Z Millennials Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,187, including Hubei province, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18–65 years old 1. Q: Which best describes your general attitude toward the holiday shopping season? Selected from "Anxious," "Stressed," "Neutral," "Eager,“ "Excited," and "Other." 2. Baby boomers includes silent generation. 21 15 64 Overall Excited/ eager Neutral Stressed/ anxious Consumer attitudes toward the 2021 holiday shopping season1 % of respondents By annual income By generation 30 19 13 16 14 12 54 67 75 Low (<14k renminbi) Medium (14k– 30k renminbi) High (>30k renminbi)
  26. McKinsey & Company 26 Many consumers are planning to spend more on travel this year than in 2020 Holiday shopping started as usual | Current as of October 2021 Gifts (for myself and others) 35 26 45 Redecorate my home, put out seasonal items 20 5 38 Personal travel Out-of- home eating 44 18 Family travel 17 70 79 4 24 6 66 8 45 Large household appliances 50 1. Q: If you compare the upcoming holidays [2021] with the ones last year, how much do you plan to change your spending level in the following categories? Will spend more Will spend about the same Will spend less 2021 holiday spending plans vs spending in 20201 % of respondents who spent on the category during the holidays in 2020 While travel dominates spending intentions, 26% say they intend to spend more on decorating than last year, and 24% intend to spend more on gifts Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,187, including Hubei province, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18–65 years old
  27. McKinsey & Company 27 Across ages, consumers intend to combine store and online browsing for holiday purchases Holiday shopping started as usual | Current as of October 2021 58 51 47 46 42 27 25 11 4 Browsing in pop-up stores Browsing in stores Brand websites Advertisements on TV or streaming media Retailer websites Offline advertisements2 Browsing through holiday markets Social media Emails from relevant retailers Generational cut Gen Z 59 39 Millennials 69 38 Gen X 51 46 Baby boomers3 42 2 3 8 3 30 23 26 23 19 26 32 59 50 50 46 32 48 45 42 51 56 10 7 13 17 46 52 43 34 Research channels Between −3 and 3 < −3 >3 Difference from all respondents, percentage points 1. Q: Which channels are you planning to use to get new ideas and do research for your holiday shopping? Please select top 3. 2. Offline advertisements include catalogs, fliers, magazines, and newspaper advertisements. 3. Baby boomers includes silent generation. Consumer research plans by channel for holiday 20211 % of all respondents Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,187, including Hubei province, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18–65 years old
  28. McKinsey & Company 28 Consumers expect social media to have a strong influence on holiday purchase decisions Holiday shopping started as usual | Current as of October 2021 1. Q: How much influence do you expect social media to have on your holiday purchase decisions this season? Selected from "Significant influence," "Some influence," and "Will not influence." 2. Q: Which channels do you think will influence your holiday purchase decisions? Asked of respondents indicating social media will influence their 2021 holiday purchases. 3. Baby boomers includes silent generation. Expected influence of social media on 2021 holiday purchases,1 % of respondents 18 18 15 16 33 82 82 85 84 67 Overall Gen Z Millennials Gen X Baby boomers3 Will influence Will not influence Most influential social-media channels2 % of respondents who expect social-media influence 54 58 62 56 58 Facebook 39 37 30 24 34 YouTube 34 27 27 30 38 Instagram 60 55 31 56 44 TikTok Top platforms by % Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,187, including Hubei province, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18–65 years old
  29. McKinsey & Company 29 Consumers plan to increase travel for the holidays in 2021 Holiday shopping started as usual | Current as of October 2021 1. Q: What best describes what you expect to do for the holidays this year [2021]? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2. Q: What best describes your holiday get-togethers last year [2020]? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 3. Baby boomers includes silent generation. 11 33 39 17 Will travel to and attend a large get- together with family and friends Do not plan to travel and will limit getting together to immediate family only Will travel to a limited family get-together Will not travel but will have a family/friends get-together outside my immediate family Split by annual income Split by generation 15 9 10 5 14 9 21 10 27 35 37 25 30 38 13 42 37 41 29 34 43 38 −17 39 22 15 13 26 18 14 −1 9 Medium (14k–30k renminbi) Low (<14k renminbi) High (>30k renminbi) Millennials Gen X Gen Z Baby boomers3 Change from 2020,2 percentage points Holiday plans in 20211 % of respondents < −3 Between −3 and 3 >3 Difference from all respondents, percentage points Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,187, including Hubei province, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18–65 years old
  30. McKinsey & Company 30 Consumers indicate they expect to attend the same number of holiday events as they did pre-COVID-19 Holiday shopping started as usual | Current as of October 2021 1. Q: About how many in-person holiday-related events do you attend in a typical year without COVID-19? 2. Q: Compared with the number of in-person events you attended pre-COVID-19, about how many in-person events do you expect to attend over the holidays this coming year [2021]? 3. Baby boomers includes silent generation. 8.7 10.8 4.9 Family gatherings Parties with friends Work-related gatherings Event type Between −1 and 1 < −1 >1 Millennials Gen X Gen Z Baby boomers3 Generational cut 8.8 8.7 8.6 8.8 10.8 10.7 11.1 10.6 4.7 4.8 5.2 4.8 Difference in number vs pre-COVID-19 0 0 0 Holiday-related events consumers attended1 or expect to attend2 in 2021 Average number of events Difference from all respondents, percentage points Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,187, including Hubei province, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18–65 years old
  31. McKinsey & Company 31 1. Q: Do you plan to shop for the holidays earlier or later in 2021 compared with last year’s holiday season [2020]? Possible answers: “significantly earlier”; “slightly earlier”; “starting at about the same time”; “slightly later”; “significantly later”; “I am not planning to do any holiday season shopping”; 1% of Chinese consumers surveyed indicated they do not plan to shop for the holidays this year. Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2. Income brackets: low, <14,000 renminbi; medium, 14,000–30,000 renminbi; and high, >30,000 renminbi. 3. Baby boomers includes silent generation. 4. Q: What are the primary reasons you plan to shop earlier for the holidays in 2021? 13 77 11 10 82 Medium Low 7 20 63 17 High Overall 10 76 14 Earlier About the same time Later Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,187, including Hubei province, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18–65 years old Overall By income2 By generation 9 Gen Z 11 18 Gen X 77 5 16 74 Millennials 8 10 77 13 81 Baby boomers3 Over 70 percent of consumers will start holiday shopping at about the same time as in 2020 Holiday shopping started as usual | Current as of October 2021 Main reasons for consumers to start shopping earlier4 % of respondents who plan to shop earlier in 2021 34% 33% 5% 48% Holiday shopping start vs last year1 % of respondents of Chinese consumers are concerned about availability are concerned about shipping lead time want to do something fun right now are concerned about unexpected challenges due to COVID-19
  32. McKinsey & Company 32 Of the four in ten consumers who say they started shopping before November, none report completing more than half. Holiday shopping started as usual | Current as of October 2021 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,187, including Hubei province, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18–65 years old 39 34 23 4 In November I already started In December In January 0 49 51 50–100% of my shopping 25–50% of my shopping 1–24% of my shopping 1. Q: When do you plan to start your shopping for the seasonal holidays this year? Excludes 1% of Chinese consumers who indicated they do not plan to shop for the holidays this year; Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2. Q: How much of your holiday shopping have you done so far? Asked of respondents who indicated they had already started. Timing of holiday shopping, 20211 % of respondents Status of holiday shopping, 20212 % of respondents who already started
  33. McKinsey & Company 33 Almost 70 percent of consumers plan to shop at different retailers this year, with most seeking better value Holiday shopping started as usual | Current as of October 2021 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,187, including Hubei province, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18–65 years old 39 29 13 Check more things off my list at once More value for money Safety 88 69 29 15 10 2 Shop more online Shop earlier Any change of shopping behavior Shop at a different place Shop more in person Shop more at local/independent stores 1. Q: Please select all the ways you anticipate your holiday shopping might be different from last year. Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. Anticipated different holiday shopping behaviors1 % of respondents who say they will shop differently than last year Reasons to change place to shop during holiday season % of respondents who say they will do holiday shopping this year
  34. McKinsey & Company 34 Consumers plan to shop more in person this year Holiday shopping started as usual | Current as of October 2021 29 10 2 Shop more in person Shop more online Shop earlier Income cut Gen Z Millennials Gen X Baby boomers2 Shopping behaviors Between −3 and 3 < −3 >3 Difference from all respondents, percentage points 1. Q: Please select all the ways you anticipate your holiday shopping might be different compared with last year. Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2. Baby boomers includes silent generation. Anticipated change in shopping behavior for holiday 2021,1 % of respondents Generational cut 31 33 18 30 20 9 8 3 3 2 2 2 25 30 30 17 7 5 2 2 4 Medium (14k–30k renminbi) Low (<14k renminbi) High (>30k renminbi) Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,187, including Hubei province, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18–65 years old
  35. McKinsey & Company 35 Availability and convenience are the top drivers of consumer decisions about where to shop for the holidays Holiday shopping started as usual | Current as of October 2021 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,187, including Hubei province, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18–65 years old 18 29 20 36 20 29 24 43 21 15 4 8 Supporting local businesses Better prices, promotions Ability to see products in person Product availability Ability to purchase most gifts from 1 place Convenience Better quality Easy to shop across store and online Better shipping, delivery costs Unique items offered Company treating its employees well Cleaner, better hygiene measures Generational cut Gen Z Millennials Gen X 28 22 21 26 26 14 20 23 18 19 16 19 24 39 28 26 22 23 25 24 8 5 3 3 9 7 7 9 20 16 22 23 40 48 44 40 17 12 16 16 Baby boomers2 10 23 24 20 40 36 33 37 1. Q: Please tell us what your primary considerations will be when deciding where to shop. Please select up to 3. 2. Baby boomers includes traditional or silent generation. Between −3 and 3 < −3 >3 Primary considerations when deciding where to shop1 % of respondents Availability Value Convenience Quality Purpose-driven Health/hygiene Uniqueness 50 45 x Net % of respondents per category 52 43 21 20 8 Difference from all respondents, percentage points
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