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BUSINESS VALUATION &
FINANCIAL ADVISORY SERVICES
VALUE FOCUS
Exploration & Production
Third Quarter 2020 // Region Focus: Bakken
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The third quarter of 2020 experienced a relatively stable price environment compared to the volatile prices seen in the first half of the year. The WTI range
narrowed, hovering around $40 per barrel, and natural gas increased from $1.70 per MMbtu to $2.50 per MMbtu. According to the Dallas Federal Survey
released on September 23, industry participants expect oil prices to be nominally higher than last quarter’s expectations, but respondents continue to state that
most new drilling remains uneconomic. The concurrent overlapping impact of (i) discord created by the OPEC / Russian rift and resulting supply surge; and (ii)
the drop in demand due to COVID-19 related issues, was historic and continued to play a role in the third quarter. As optimism surrounding a gradual demand
recovery has increased, companies are preparing for an eventful end to 2020. As if COVID-19 and the Russian-Saudi price rift wasn’t eventful enough, an election
in November will add to the mix for what seems to be an already pressing and critical time for the industry. The unfortunate overlap in timing of these events has
made the bankruptcy courts busy, with no indication of that trend coming to a halt. In this newsletter, we examine the macroeconomic factors that have affected
the industry in the third quarter and peek behind the curtain on what the remainder of the year might hold.
Contact Us
BUSINESS VALUATION &
FINANCIAL ADVISORY SERVICES
Industry Segments
Mercer Capital serves the following industry segments:
•	 Exploration & Production
•	 Oil Field Services
•	 Midstream Operations
•	 Alternative Energy
Oil and Gas Industry Services
Mercer Capital provides business valuation and financial advisory services to
companies in the energy industry.
Services Provided
•	 Valuation of oil & gas companies
•	 Transaction advisory for acquisitions and
divestitures
•	 Valuations for purchase accounting and
impairment testing
•	 Fairness and solvency opinions
•	 Litigation support for economic damages and
valuation and shareholder disputes
Bryce Erickson, ASA, MRICS
214.468.8400
ericksonb@mercercapital.com
Dallas Office
Don Erickson, ASA
214.468.8400
ericksond@mercercapital.com
Dallas Office
J. David Smith, ASA, CFA
713.239.1005
smithd@mercercapital.com
Houston Office
Alex M. Barry, CFA
214.468.8400
barrya@mercercapital.com
Dallas Office
J. Michael Sousoulas, CPA
901.322.9746
sousoulasm@mercercapital.com
Memphis Office
Justin J. F. Ramirez, AM
832.966.0307
ramirezj@mercercapital.com
Houston Office
Jake M. Stacy
469.904.6718
stacyj@mercercapital.com
Dallas Office
Learn More about Mercer Capital &
our Oil and Gas Services at
mer.cr/oilgas
Copyright © 2019 Mercer Capital Management, Inc. All rights reserved. It is illegal under Federal law to reproduce this publication or any portion of its contents without the publisher’s permission. Media quotations with source attribution are encouraged. Reporters requesting additional
information or editorial comment should contact Barbara Walters Price at 901.685.2120. Mercer Capital’s Industry Focus is published quarterly and does not constitute legal or financial consulting advice. It is offered as an information service to our clients and friends. Those interested
in specific guidance for legal or accounting matters should seek competent professional advice. Inquiries to discuss specific valuation matters are welcomed. To add your name to our mailing list to receive this complimentary publication, visit our web site at www.mercercapital.com.
In This Issue
Oil and Gas Commodity Prices 		 1
Macro Update	
OPEC+				 2
Potential Market Consequences:
Trump vs. Biden Administration 	 3
U.S. Production	 4
Bankruptcy	 4
Interest Rates	 4
Region Focus: Bakken	
Production and Activity Levels	 5
Financial Performance	 7
Whiting Emerges, Enters Bankruptcy	8
Dakota Access Pipeline Under
Siege Again	 9
Market Valuations  Transaction History	11
MA in the Bakken: Immense Drop in
Deal Activity Due to COVID Concerns	10
Recent Transactions in the Bakken	10
Northern Oil and Gas Continues Core
Acreage Buildout	 11
Selected Public Company Information	12
Production	 16
Rig Count	 17
© 2020 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation  Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 1
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Third Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy
Crude prices started the quarter at approximately $40/bbl and remained fairly stable throughout the quarter, ending at
about the same price of $40/bbl. Brent crude followed the same pattern as WTI and closed at approximately $41/bbl.
Natural gas prices started the quarter at about $1.70/mmbtu and gradually increased to finish the three-month period
at $2.50/mmbtu. Part of that relates to a reduction of associated gas production driven by lower oil production activity,
as well as some regular seasonality as winter approaches.
We note that Bloomberg has revised the default futures contracts utilized for historical commodity pricing in order to
make the output more reasonable (hence the lack of negative prices shown in the chart below). As such, the infor-
mation shown may not tie to previous analyses.
However, there is still considerable uncertainty around future demand, both near-term and long-run. While resuming
economic activity has spurred an increase in consumption, changing travel habits and concerns around a potential
surge of COVID-19 cases during the upcoming traditional flu season have clouded experts’ ability to make projec-
tions. In the longer-run, BP’s 2020 Energy Outlook expects global liquid fuels consumption to peak by 2030 under
a “business as usual” scenario. Under scenarios assuming more aggressive policy measures to reduce carbon
emission, BP’s analysis suggests that liquid fuels consumption peaked in 2019 and will continue to trend downward.
Oil and Gas
Commodity
Prices
Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices
$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
$3.0
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
7/1/20
8/1/20
9/1/20
10/1/20
$/mmbtu
$/bbl
WTI Brent Henry Hub
Source: Bloomberg
© 2020 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation  Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 2
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Third Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy
Macro Update
OPEC+
On June 6, OPEC+ members reached an agreement to continue cutting 9.7 million b/d, or about 10% of global output
under normal circumstances, through July. The extended supply cuts helped oil prices continue their recovery from
the drastic drop in April due to the demand issues caused by COVID-19. The original agreement that OPEC+ reached
on April 12 stated that production was set to increase gradually after June, but members refined that plan and con-
tinued their supply cuts for another month.
On July 15, OPEC+ members agreed to loosen existing production caps by roughly 1.6 million b/d. The agreement
was slated to begin in August as demand was showing signs of recovery amid the COVID-19 related lockdowns. The
decision created a 10% increase in Brent prices to $43.30/bbl. OPEC expects the world’s demand for oil to increase
by 7 million b/d next year, after a forecast 8.9 million b/d decline in 2020. A primary source of overall industry decline is
the lack of jet fuel demand as travel has decreased significantly throughout the year. According to the Dallas Federal
Energy Survey, 74% of industry executives believe that OPEC will play a bigger role in the determination of the price
of oil going forward.
© 2020 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation  Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 3
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Third Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy
Macro Update (cont.)
Potential Market
Consequences: Trump vs.
Biden Administration
The upcoming election in November 2020 is on the industry’s mind as both administrations have expressed their
energy initiatives that will be implemented during the next four years. The election comes at a pressing time in the
industry, with the next four years of U.S. oil and gas policy at stake. The major topics at hand include domestic
production, infrastructure plans, OPEC+ engagements, and international sanctions. The following chart shows the
contrasting platforms of the two potential administrations:
Topic / Issue Trump Administration VS. Biden Administration
U.S. Upstream
Increased 3.9 million b/d from
inauguration until COVID-19;
Projected to gradually increase to
approximately 13 million b/d by 2024
Could fall by as much as 2 million
b/d under drilling restrictions on
federal lands and waters
Infrastructure
Making efforts to ease permitting for
pipelines, ports, and other projects
Raising the permitting bar by
considering climate implications;
Potential to deny 570,000 b/d
Dakota Access Pipeline a new
permit
OPEC+
Continues to urge OPEC+ to increase
or cut supply
Under Biden, any U.S. diplomacy
toward OPEC might return to being
“behind the scenes”
Sanctions
Continues the sanctions pressure,
restricting Iran's and Venezuela's oil
supply
If Biden rejoins nuclear deal,
Iranian oil exports could rise 1.8
million b/d by the end of 2021
Source: SP global
© 2020 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation  Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 4
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Third Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy
Macro Update (cont.)
U.S. Production
Bankruptcy
Interest Rates
The decline in production, 9.7 million b/d year-over-year in August, reflects voluntary productions cuts by OPEC+
along with reductions in drilling activity and curtailments as of late. The EIA estimates that U.S. crude oil production
increased to 10.8 million b/d in August as operators brought wells back online in response to rising prices after cur-
tailing production in the second quarter. Frac fleets have slowly grown since May, but still are down roughly 68%
from the peak in 2020. After September, however, the EIA projects U.S. crude oil production to decline slightly as
new drilling activity will not generate enough production to offset declines from existing wells. According to the Dallas
Federal Energy Survey, 66% of industry executives believe that U.S. oil production has peaked. The upcoming
election poses significant uncertainties as the two administrations’ contrasting agendas will play a major role on U.S.
production moving forward.
Companies are on their heels heading into the end of 2020. Bankruptcy activity has heightened, and debt levels
have increased as companies are hoping the worst is behind them. The question is whether the worst is yet to come.
Balance sheets have become increasingly important and cash will remain king until the price environment becomes
more economic. Deal activity has been quiet as of late, though ended with a bang given Devon’s announced
merger with WPX. More deals could come as buyers and sellers turn to consolidation to reduce costs in these chal-
lenging times. That does, however, assume companies will not have to file for bankruptcy.
The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates twice in the month of March. On March 3, the Fed made an emergency
decision to cut interest rates by 0.5% in response to the foreseeable economic slowdown due to the spread of the
coronavirus. This cut was anticipated and largely shrugged off by the markets as interest rates continued their precip-
itous decline. Benchmark rates were again cut on March 15 by a full percent to near zero. The Federal Reserve’s
latest forecast suggests that rates will remain close to zero for the foreseeable future until inflation increases.
As the industry attempts to recover from a dramatic timeline of events in the first half of 2020, many uncertainties
remain ahead. Companies are trying to survive during the challenging environment while attempting to shore up
the balance sheet and hang on tight with the election on the horizon. Potential policy changes might be the least of
companies’ worries as other pressing issues are affecting them in the very short-term. All of the pieces are stacking
up against the industry, and it will be interesting to analyze the next six months, which could very well look different.
© 2020 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation  Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 5
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Third Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy
The economics of oil and gas production varies by region. Mercer Capital focuses on trends in the Eagle Ford,
Permian, Bakken, and Marcellus and Utica plays. The cost of producing oil and gas depends on the geological
makeup of the reserve, depth of reserve, and cost to transport the raw crude to market. We can observe different
costs in different regions depending on these factors. This quarter we take a closer look at the Bakken.
Estimated Bakken production declined approximately 16% year-over-year through September, in line with the Eagle
Ford, though worse than the production declines seen in the Permian (down approximately 5%) and Appalachia
(essentially flat). However, the Bakken has rebounded strongly from production lows observed in May following April’s
historic rout in crude oil prices. The Bakken was particularly impacted by production curtailments, driven in part by
higher pricing differentials given the basin’s location, higher breakeven prices, and the fact that most operators in the
basin have diverse operations, giving them optionality as to where to curtail production while being able to maintain
cash flow necessary for near-term obligations (unlike pure-play counterparts).
Region Focus:
Bakken
Production and Activity
Levels
Bakken
Formation
1-Year Change in Production
-40%
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Sep-19
O
ct-19
N
ov-19
D
ec-19
Jan-20
Feb-20
M
ar-20
Apr-20
M
ay-20
Jun-20
Jul-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Bakken Eagle Ford Permian Appalachia
Source: EIA
© 2020 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation  Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 6
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Third Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy
The rig count in the Bakken stood at 10 as of September 18, down over 80% from the prior year. Only the Eagle
Ford has seen a more severe drop in rigs, with the rig count declining by more than 86% during the same period.
While swift, the decline has stabilized. The Bakken’s rig count has ranged from 9 to 11 rigs during the third quarter.
However, a meaningful increase in rigs is unlikely given reduced capex budgets.
Production and Activity
Levels (cont.)
1-Year Change in Rig Count
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
Sep-19
O
ct-19
N
ov-19
D
ec-19
Jan-20
Feb-20
M
ar-20
Apr-20
M
ay-20
Jun-20
Jul-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Bakken Eagle Ford Permian Appalachia Total
Source: Baker
Hughes
Source: Baker Hughes
© 2020 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation  Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 7
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Third Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy
With Whiting’s restructuring (discussed in a subsequent section), the Bakken-focused peer group with meaningful
historical trading activity has become quite small. Continental Resources is down approximately 57% year-over-year,
though that isn’t much worse than the overall exploration  production sector (as proxied by XOP, which is down 51%
over the same period). Oasis Petroleum’s stock price has declined by approximately 88% over the past year and the
company has filed for bankruptcy.
Financial Performance
1-Year Change in Stock Price
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
Sep-19
O
ct-19
N
ov-19
D
ec-19
Jan-20
Feb-20
M
ar-20
Apr-20
M
ay-20
Jun-20
Jul-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
CLR OAS XOP
Source: Capital IQ
Source: Capital IQ
© 2020 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation  Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 8
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Third Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy
We note that neither company is pure-play Bakken, as Continental has a sizeable acreage position in Oklahoma’s
SCOOP/STACK, and Oasis has operations in the Permian as well. Other publicly traded Bakken operators, including
ExxonMobil, Marathon Oil, Hess, EOG, Ovintiv, ConocoPhillips, and QEP, also have diverse operations outside the
basin. Northern Oil  Gas, which has traditionally focused on owning non-operating working interests in the Bakken,
has expanded outside the basin with acquisitions in the Permian.
Equinor, which entered the Bakken with its $4.7 billion acquisition of Brigham Exploration, announced that it is
halting all U.S. shale drilling and well completion activity.
The lack of a pure-play Bakken peer set makes it difficult to draw conclusions specific to the basin, but is also a telling
fact about the difficult operating conditions in the area.
Whiting Petroleum, which announced its Chapter 11 reorganization process in April, emerged from bankruptcy in
September. The reorganization process allowed Whiting to reduce its debt load by more than $3 billion, from over
$3.4 billion to just $425 million. While shareholders were able to avoid being completely wiped out, the restructuring
was extremely dilutive. Legacy shareholders now own approximately 3% of the equity of the new entity.
On September 30, Oasis Petroleum announced that it entered into a restructuring support agreement with its lenders.
The voluntary Chapter 11 process is expected to be completed quickly, as the company expects to emerge from
bankruptcy in November.
Financial Performance
(cont.)
Whiting Emerges, Enters
Bankruptcy
© 2020 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation  Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 9
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Third Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy
Energy Transfer’s Dakota Access Pipeline (“DAPL”), which was the subject of protests in 2016 and 2017, is under
renewed legal action. The pipeline, which was instrumental in helping minimize pricing differentials in the land-
locked Bakken relative to other basins, has the capacity to transport 570 mbbl/d of crude oil from the Bakken to a hub
in Illinois, with connections to pipelines serving refining markets in the Midwest and Gulf Coast.
In July, a judge ruled that DAPL must be shut down and emptied by August 5, pending an environmental review by
the Army Corps of Engineers. A U.S. appeals court reversed the shutdown order in August, though requirement for
the environmental review is still under appeal. Based on the current trial schedule, DAPL should be able to continue
operating through at least late December before a federal court could mandate another shutdown.
Despite the renewed legal scrutiny, Energy Transfer is pushing forward with an expansion plan which would roughly
double DAPL’s capacity. The additional capacity is expected to come online in the third quarter of 2021.
The Bakken was hit the hardest by curtailments driven by low commodity prices, but has also seen the sharpest
rebound in production. Restructurings by Whiting and Oasis should add stability to the basin, though the recent bank-
ruptcies of Bakken-focused operators are indicative of challenging economics. While operating conditions are difficult
across the U.S., the stress appears quite acute in the Bakken.
Dakota Access Pipeline
Under Siege Again
© 2020 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation  Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 10
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Third Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy
MA in the Bakken: Immense Drop in Deal Activity Due to COVID Concerns
Over the past several years, the Bakken has generally had much lighter acquisition and divestiture activity than other
major basins in the United States. Given that deal activity across the energy sector has dropped an immense 42.7
percent over the past year, acquisition and divestiture activity has dropped even further in this basin over the past
year.
Observed deal activity has largely been the result of Northern Oil and Gas growing its production base in the area
during the past several years.
Market Valuations 
Transaction History
Transactions in the Bakken
Announced
Date Buyer Seller
Deal Value
($MM) $ / Acre $ / Boepd
8/3/20 Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. Undisclosed Seller $6 $14,500 nm
6/11/20 Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. Undisclosed Seller $2 $4,688 nm
11/1/19 Undisclosed Buyer Gulfport Energy Corp. $8 nm $116,618
8/15/19 Panhandle Oil and Gas Inc. Undisclosed Seller $5 $7,453 nm
7/31/19 Undisclosed Buyer Whiting Petroleum Corp. $53 $7,794 $75,391
6/5/19 Undisclosed Buyer Abraxas Petroleum Corp. $16 $31,000 $44,286
6/4/19 Resource Energy Can-am LLC Undisclosed Seller --- nm nm
4/22/19 Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. Flywheel Energy LLC $180 $10,000 $27,273
4/3/19 Empire Petroleum Corp. Energyquest Ii Llc --- nm nm
Median $8 $8,897 $59,838
Average $38 $12,572 $65,892
Source: Shale Experts
*Does not include every transaction in the region for 2019-2020
© 2020 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation  Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 11
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Third Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy
Northern Oil has constituted approximately two-thirds of the observed deal activity (based on disclosed deal value) in the
basin, including its bolt on acquisitions in June and August 2020 for several hundred acres. This activity furthers Northern
Oil’s mission of building out its core position in non-operating interests through consistent, strategic acquisitions.
Although production is down across the country, wells are slowly beginning to come back online, and Northern Oil believes
increasing inventory while pricing is advantageous should drive returns in the future.
According to Northern COO Adam Dirlam, “We continue to add to our core inventory. Record levels of wells-in-process
should drive strong volumes and improve upon our return on capital employed metrics in 2021 and beyond.”
Since the start of 2018, the company has made six large publicly announced transactions totaling more than $820 million,
including its large acquisition of private equity-backed Flywheel Energy LLC in April 2019.
Below is a map of Northern Oil’s acreage to show its overall footprint in the basin.
The energy industry in Q1 and Q2 2020 has seen
extreme volatility that has had investors and oper-
ators alike remaining cautious and waiting to
see what happens next. As a result, acquisition
and divestiture activity has been put on the back
burner as companies struggle to plan ahead while
remaining solvent.
As we moved from the second quarter to the third
quarter, fundamentals in the Bakken have steadily
improved as crude oil pipeline and storage limita-
tions were alleviated. Stabilization of WTI pricing
and well differentials in the region over the past
couple of months have also aided as well. Com-
panies like Northern Oil look towards the future as
demand begins to creep upward from its mid-year
lows, and the company has taken advantage of
lower pricing to accrete acreage to its core position.
Market Valuations 
Transaction History
Northern Oil and Gas
Continues Core Acreage
Buildout
Northern Oil Acreage in Williston Basin Core
182,899 net acres
Source: Northern Oil  Gas, Inc - September 2020
2020 DC
2020 PDP
© 2020 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation  Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 12
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Third Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy
as of 9/30/2020
Company Name Ticker
9/30/2020
Enterprise Value
YoY % Change in
Stock Price
EBITDAX
Margin
EV/
EBITDAX
Daily
Production
(mboe/d)
Price per Flowing
Barrel*
Global Integrated
Exxon Mobil Corp XOM $252,995 -36.67% 12.0% 9.9x 3,746 $67,545
Royal Dutch Shell PLC RDS/A $202,107 -44.45% 15.7% 4.9x 3,391 $59,601
Chevron Corp CVX $193,998 -24.76% 19.6% 8.6x 2,996 $64,756
BP PLC BP $143,303 -38.62% 5.7% 10.9x 3,575 $40,083
Equinor ASA EQNR $63,301 -23.59% 24.2% 5.0x 2,126 $29,780
Group Median -36.67% 15.7% 8.6x 3,391 $59,601
Global EP
Marathon Oil Corp MRO $9,975 -50.12% 59.2% 4.2x 377 $26,445
Hess Corp HES $24,134 -14.34% 7.0% 63.0x 328 $73,599
ConocoPhillips COP $53,169 -26.25% 44.3% 4.9x 1,138 $46,735
Occidental Petroleum Corp OXY $65,613 -58.85% -5.8% nm 1,346 $48,760
Noble Energy Inc NBL $13,017 -60.11% -42.6% nm 357 $36,499
Apache Corp APA $15,614 -47.27% -89.5% nm 428 $36,514
Murphy Oil Corp MUR $5,936 -37.58% 31.0% 7.2x 178 $33,264
Group Median -47.27% 7.0% 6.1x 377 $36,514
Source: Bloomberg L.P.
•	 Price per Flowing Barrel is EV/daily production ($/boe/d)
•	 We review 10-K’s and annual reports from guideline companies to ensure companies continue to operate in the regions and groups we have identified.
Mercer Capital tracks the performance of Exploration and Production companies across different mineral reserves in order to understand how the current pricing envi-
ronment affects operators in each region. We created an index of seven groups to better understand performance trends across reserves and the industry. The current
pricing multiples of each company in the index are summarized below.
Appendix A
Selected Public Company Information
© 2020 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation  Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 13
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Third Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy
as of 9/30/2020
Company Name Ticker
9/30/2020
Enterprise Value
YoY % Change in
Stock Price
EBITDAX
Margin
EV/
EBITDAX
Daily
Production
(mboe/d)
Price per Flowing
Barrel*
North American EP
Devon Energy Corp DVN $7,544 -52.87% -11.4% nm 326 $23,164
QEP Resources Inc QEP $2,233 -65.14% 61.6% 3.6x 80 $28,044
WPX Energy Inc WPX $6,752 -39.75% 34.1% 12.1x 211 $32,072
Group Median -52.87% 34.1% 7.9x 211 $28,044
Bakken
Continental Resources Inc/OK CLR $12,524 -43.07% 58.6% 6.3x 288 $43,414
Group Median -43.07% 58.6% 6.3x 288 $43,414
Appalachia
Range Resources Corp RRC $4,699 47.38% -68.9% nm 380 $12,358
EQT Corp EQT $7,658 11.84% -10.2% nm 669 $11,444
Cabot Oil  Gas Corp COG $7,986 -2.22% 57.6% 8.6x 393 $20,295
Antero Resources Corp AR $7,061 -15.89% 15.4% 11.6x 570 $12,392
Gulfport Energy Corp GPOR $2,086 -59.78% -189.4% nm 174 $11,986
Southwestern Energy Co SWN $3,964 32.64% -36.6% nm 386 $10,267
Group Median 4.81% -23.4% 10.1x 390 $12,172
Source: Bloomberg L.P.
•	 Price per Flowing Barrel is EV/daily production ($/boe/d)
•	 We review 10-K’s and annual reports from guideline companies to ensure companies continue to operate in the regions and groups we have identified.
Appendix A
Selected Public Company Information
© 2020 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation  Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 14
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Third Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy
as of 9/30/2020
Company Name Ticker
9/30/2020
Enterprise Value
YoY % Change in
Stock Price
EBITDAX
Margin
EV/
EBITDAX
Daily
Production
(mboe/d)
Price per Flowing
Barrel*
Permian Basin
Concho Resources Inc CXO $13,767 -24.15% -169.0% nm 310 $44,349
Parsley Energy Inc PE $7,623 -36.43% -154.2% nm 178 $42,791
Diamondback Energy Inc FANG $13,638 -53.49% -43.1% nm 296 $46,039
Centennial Resource Development Inc/DE CDEV $1,352 -80.29% 58.1% 3.1x 64 $21,040
Callon Petroleum Co CPE $3,855 -73.50% -100.6% nm 101 $38,300
Laredo Petroleum Inc LPI $1,435 475.10% -60.2% nm 81 $17,744
Pioneer Natural Resources Co PXD $18,354 -22.32% 29.3% 7.4x 346 $53,078
Cimarex Energy Co XEC $5,043 -42.66% -71.1% nm 251 $20,119
Group Median -39.54% -65.6% 5.3x 214 $40,546
Eagle Ford
EOG Resources Inc EOG $33,047 -31.74% 47.4% 5.0x 740 $44,681
Magnolia Oil  Gas Corp MGY $1,803 -45.41% -119.0% nm 62 $29,265
SilverBow Resources Inc SBOW $504 -66.87% -96.6% nm na na
Penn Virginia Corp PVAC $679 -67.22% 52.9% 4.0x 21 $32,737
Group Median -56.14% -24.6% 4.5x 62 $32,737
OVERALL MEDIAN -39.18% 6.4% 6.8x 346 $33,264
Source: Bloomberg L.P.
•	 Price per Flowing Barrel is EV/daily production ($/boe/d)
•	 We review 10-K’s and annual reports from guideline companies to ensure companies continue to operate in the regions and groups we have identified.
Appendix A
Selected Public Company Information
© 2020 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation  Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 15
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Third Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy
Price per Flowing Barrel
Appendix A
Selected Public
Company
Information
The following graph depicts the median of EV/production multiples, also known as price per flowing barrel, at the end
of the past six quarters. As has been the case for some time now, operators in the Permian continue to lead the other
regions in terms of valuation, although this margin is decreasing. All basins in the analyzed sample, the Permian, Eagle
Ford, Bakken, and Appalachian saw an increase in their price per flowing barrel in the third quarter of 34%, 55%, 65%,
and 18%, respectively. This increase can be explained by the small recovery in commodity prices since the COVID-19
demand destruction which occurred primarily in the second quarter. However, low commodity prices, relative to years
past, have negatively impacted operators regardless of region, as all four basins have seen a decline in price per flowing
barrel in the range of 2% to 36% since Q2 2019.
•	 Price per Flowing Barrel is EV/ daily production ($/boe/d)
•	 This is simply a graphic depiction of median figures of our selected public companies for each region. This should be interpreted solely in
the context of relative valuation between the various basins over time. Bloomberg aggregates this raw data, and Mercer Capital does not
represent or warrant these figures as indicative of valuation multiples attributable to EP companies or other interests.
$0
$30,000
$60,000
$90,000
2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2020 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3
Bakken Eagle Ford Permian Appalachia
Source: Bloomberg
© 2020 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation  Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 16
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Third Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy
Appendix B
Production
The Permian, Eagle Ford,
Bakken, and Appalachia all
experienced negative production
growth over the last year, 1.9%,
24.0%, 17.2%, and 14.1%,
respectively.
Natural gas production in the
Appalachia has increased 3.4%
over the last year, whereas
Permian production has grown
5.8% in the same time frame.
Growth in the Eagle Ford
decreased 15.9% year-over-
year, and growth in the Bakken
decreased 11.7%.
Daily Production of Crude Oil
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
Sep-15
M
ar-16
Sep-16
M
ar-17
Sep-17
M
ar-18
Sep-18
M
ar-19
Sep-19
M
ar-20
Sep-20
mmbbl/d
Bakken Eagle Ford
Permian Appalachia
Source: EIA
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Sep-15
M
ar-16
Sep-16
M
ar-17
Sep-17
M
ar-18
Sep-18
M
ar-19
Sep-19
M
ar-20
Sep-20
mmcf/d
Bakken Eagle Ford
Permian Appalachia
Source: EIA
Daily Production of Natural Gas
© 2020 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation  Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 17
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Third Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy
Appendix B
Rig Count
Rig Count by Region
Baker Hughes collects and publishes information regarding active drilling rigs in the United States and internationally.
The number of active rigs is a key indicator of demand for oilfield services  equipment. Factors influencing rig counts
include energy prices, investment climate, technological changes, regulatory activity, weather, and seasonality.
The number of active rigs in the United States as of September 30, 2020 stood at 258, a 1.9% decrease from June 30,
2020, and a 70.0% decline from September 2019. The rig count in the Bakken decreased from 53 to 10 rigs in over
the last year as EP operators are cutting rigs in light of recent demand issues.
1	
Calculations based on monthly crude oil and gas production and EIA drilling report by region.
0
300
600
900
1,200
Sep-15
M
ar-16
Sep-16
M
ar-17
Sep-17
M
ar-18
Sep-18
M
ar-19
Sep-19
M
ar-20
Sep-20
Bakken Eagle Ford Permian Appalachia Other
Source: Baker Hughes
© 2020 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation  Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 18
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Third Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy
U.S. Rig Count by Oil vs. Natural GasAppendix B
Rig Count
U.S. Rig Count by Trajectory
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Sep-15
M
ar-16
Sep-16
M
ar-17
Sep-17
M
ar-18
Sep-18
M
ar-19
Sep-19
M
ar-20
Sep-20
Source: Baker Hughes
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1/29/16
7/29/16
1/31/17
7/31/17
1/31/18
7/31/18
1/31/19
7/31/19
1/31/20
7/31/20
Directional Horizontal Vertical
Source: Baker Hughes
Oil Natural Gas
Mercer Capital
www.mercercapital.com

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Bakken Oil and Gas Industry Insights Q3 2020

  • 1. BUSINESS VALUATION & FINANCIAL ADVISORY SERVICES VALUE FOCUS Exploration & Production Third Quarter 2020 // Region Focus: Bakken EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The third quarter of 2020 experienced a relatively stable price environment compared to the volatile prices seen in the first half of the year. The WTI range narrowed, hovering around $40 per barrel, and natural gas increased from $1.70 per MMbtu to $2.50 per MMbtu. According to the Dallas Federal Survey released on September 23, industry participants expect oil prices to be nominally higher than last quarter’s expectations, but respondents continue to state that most new drilling remains uneconomic. The concurrent overlapping impact of (i) discord created by the OPEC / Russian rift and resulting supply surge; and (ii) the drop in demand due to COVID-19 related issues, was historic and continued to play a role in the third quarter. As optimism surrounding a gradual demand recovery has increased, companies are preparing for an eventful end to 2020. As if COVID-19 and the Russian-Saudi price rift wasn’t eventful enough, an election in November will add to the mix for what seems to be an already pressing and critical time for the industry. The unfortunate overlap in timing of these events has made the bankruptcy courts busy, with no indication of that trend coming to a halt. In this newsletter, we examine the macroeconomic factors that have affected the industry in the third quarter and peek behind the curtain on what the remainder of the year might hold.
  • 2. Contact Us BUSINESS VALUATION & FINANCIAL ADVISORY SERVICES Industry Segments Mercer Capital serves the following industry segments: • Exploration & Production • Oil Field Services • Midstream Operations • Alternative Energy Oil and Gas Industry Services Mercer Capital provides business valuation and financial advisory services to companies in the energy industry. Services Provided • Valuation of oil & gas companies • Transaction advisory for acquisitions and divestitures • Valuations for purchase accounting and impairment testing • Fairness and solvency opinions • Litigation support for economic damages and valuation and shareholder disputes Bryce Erickson, ASA, MRICS 214.468.8400 ericksonb@mercercapital.com Dallas Office Don Erickson, ASA 214.468.8400 ericksond@mercercapital.com Dallas Office J. David Smith, ASA, CFA 713.239.1005 smithd@mercercapital.com Houston Office Alex M. Barry, CFA 214.468.8400 barrya@mercercapital.com Dallas Office J. Michael Sousoulas, CPA 901.322.9746 sousoulasm@mercercapital.com Memphis Office Justin J. F. Ramirez, AM 832.966.0307 ramirezj@mercercapital.com Houston Office Jake M. Stacy 469.904.6718 stacyj@mercercapital.com Dallas Office Learn More about Mercer Capital & our Oil and Gas Services at mer.cr/oilgas Copyright © 2019 Mercer Capital Management, Inc. All rights reserved. It is illegal under Federal law to reproduce this publication or any portion of its contents without the publisher’s permission. Media quotations with source attribution are encouraged. Reporters requesting additional information or editorial comment should contact Barbara Walters Price at 901.685.2120. Mercer Capital’s Industry Focus is published quarterly and does not constitute legal or financial consulting advice. It is offered as an information service to our clients and friends. Those interested in specific guidance for legal or accounting matters should seek competent professional advice. Inquiries to discuss specific valuation matters are welcomed. To add your name to our mailing list to receive this complimentary publication, visit our web site at www.mercercapital.com. In This Issue Oil and Gas Commodity Prices 1 Macro Update OPEC+ 2 Potential Market Consequences: Trump vs. Biden Administration 3 U.S. Production 4 Bankruptcy 4 Interest Rates 4 Region Focus: Bakken Production and Activity Levels 5 Financial Performance 7 Whiting Emerges, Enters Bankruptcy 8 Dakota Access Pipeline Under Siege Again 9 Market Valuations Transaction History 11 MA in the Bakken: Immense Drop in Deal Activity Due to COVID Concerns 10 Recent Transactions in the Bakken 10 Northern Oil and Gas Continues Core Acreage Buildout 11 Selected Public Company Information 12 Production 16 Rig Count 17
  • 3. © 2020 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 1 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Third Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy Crude prices started the quarter at approximately $40/bbl and remained fairly stable throughout the quarter, ending at about the same price of $40/bbl. Brent crude followed the same pattern as WTI and closed at approximately $41/bbl. Natural gas prices started the quarter at about $1.70/mmbtu and gradually increased to finish the three-month period at $2.50/mmbtu. Part of that relates to a reduction of associated gas production driven by lower oil production activity, as well as some regular seasonality as winter approaches. We note that Bloomberg has revised the default futures contracts utilized for historical commodity pricing in order to make the output more reasonable (hence the lack of negative prices shown in the chart below). As such, the infor- mation shown may not tie to previous analyses. However, there is still considerable uncertainty around future demand, both near-term and long-run. While resuming economic activity has spurred an increase in consumption, changing travel habits and concerns around a potential surge of COVID-19 cases during the upcoming traditional flu season have clouded experts’ ability to make projec- tions. In the longer-run, BP’s 2020 Energy Outlook expects global liquid fuels consumption to peak by 2030 under a “business as usual” scenario. Under scenarios assuming more aggressive policy measures to reduce carbon emission, BP’s analysis suggests that liquid fuels consumption peaked in 2019 and will continue to trend downward. Oil and Gas Commodity Prices Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices $0.0 $0.5 $1.0 $1.5 $2.0 $2.5 $3.0 $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 7/1/20 8/1/20 9/1/20 10/1/20 $/mmbtu $/bbl WTI Brent Henry Hub Source: Bloomberg
  • 4. © 2020 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 2 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Third Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy Macro Update OPEC+ On June 6, OPEC+ members reached an agreement to continue cutting 9.7 million b/d, or about 10% of global output under normal circumstances, through July. The extended supply cuts helped oil prices continue their recovery from the drastic drop in April due to the demand issues caused by COVID-19. The original agreement that OPEC+ reached on April 12 stated that production was set to increase gradually after June, but members refined that plan and con- tinued their supply cuts for another month. On July 15, OPEC+ members agreed to loosen existing production caps by roughly 1.6 million b/d. The agreement was slated to begin in August as demand was showing signs of recovery amid the COVID-19 related lockdowns. The decision created a 10% increase in Brent prices to $43.30/bbl. OPEC expects the world’s demand for oil to increase by 7 million b/d next year, after a forecast 8.9 million b/d decline in 2020. A primary source of overall industry decline is the lack of jet fuel demand as travel has decreased significantly throughout the year. According to the Dallas Federal Energy Survey, 74% of industry executives believe that OPEC will play a bigger role in the determination of the price of oil going forward.
  • 5. © 2020 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 3 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Third Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy Macro Update (cont.) Potential Market Consequences: Trump vs. Biden Administration The upcoming election in November 2020 is on the industry’s mind as both administrations have expressed their energy initiatives that will be implemented during the next four years. The election comes at a pressing time in the industry, with the next four years of U.S. oil and gas policy at stake. The major topics at hand include domestic production, infrastructure plans, OPEC+ engagements, and international sanctions. The following chart shows the contrasting platforms of the two potential administrations: Topic / Issue Trump Administration VS. Biden Administration U.S. Upstream Increased 3.9 million b/d from inauguration until COVID-19; Projected to gradually increase to approximately 13 million b/d by 2024 Could fall by as much as 2 million b/d under drilling restrictions on federal lands and waters Infrastructure Making efforts to ease permitting for pipelines, ports, and other projects Raising the permitting bar by considering climate implications; Potential to deny 570,000 b/d Dakota Access Pipeline a new permit OPEC+ Continues to urge OPEC+ to increase or cut supply Under Biden, any U.S. diplomacy toward OPEC might return to being “behind the scenes” Sanctions Continues the sanctions pressure, restricting Iran's and Venezuela's oil supply If Biden rejoins nuclear deal, Iranian oil exports could rise 1.8 million b/d by the end of 2021 Source: SP global
  • 6. © 2020 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 4 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Third Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy Macro Update (cont.) U.S. Production Bankruptcy Interest Rates The decline in production, 9.7 million b/d year-over-year in August, reflects voluntary productions cuts by OPEC+ along with reductions in drilling activity and curtailments as of late. The EIA estimates that U.S. crude oil production increased to 10.8 million b/d in August as operators brought wells back online in response to rising prices after cur- tailing production in the second quarter. Frac fleets have slowly grown since May, but still are down roughly 68% from the peak in 2020. After September, however, the EIA projects U.S. crude oil production to decline slightly as new drilling activity will not generate enough production to offset declines from existing wells. According to the Dallas Federal Energy Survey, 66% of industry executives believe that U.S. oil production has peaked. The upcoming election poses significant uncertainties as the two administrations’ contrasting agendas will play a major role on U.S. production moving forward. Companies are on their heels heading into the end of 2020. Bankruptcy activity has heightened, and debt levels have increased as companies are hoping the worst is behind them. The question is whether the worst is yet to come. Balance sheets have become increasingly important and cash will remain king until the price environment becomes more economic. Deal activity has been quiet as of late, though ended with a bang given Devon’s announced merger with WPX. More deals could come as buyers and sellers turn to consolidation to reduce costs in these chal- lenging times. That does, however, assume companies will not have to file for bankruptcy. The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates twice in the month of March. On March 3, the Fed made an emergency decision to cut interest rates by 0.5% in response to the foreseeable economic slowdown due to the spread of the coronavirus. This cut was anticipated and largely shrugged off by the markets as interest rates continued their precip- itous decline. Benchmark rates were again cut on March 15 by a full percent to near zero. The Federal Reserve’s latest forecast suggests that rates will remain close to zero for the foreseeable future until inflation increases. As the industry attempts to recover from a dramatic timeline of events in the first half of 2020, many uncertainties remain ahead. Companies are trying to survive during the challenging environment while attempting to shore up the balance sheet and hang on tight with the election on the horizon. Potential policy changes might be the least of companies’ worries as other pressing issues are affecting them in the very short-term. All of the pieces are stacking up against the industry, and it will be interesting to analyze the next six months, which could very well look different.
  • 7. © 2020 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 5 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Third Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy The economics of oil and gas production varies by region. Mercer Capital focuses on trends in the Eagle Ford, Permian, Bakken, and Marcellus and Utica plays. The cost of producing oil and gas depends on the geological makeup of the reserve, depth of reserve, and cost to transport the raw crude to market. We can observe different costs in different regions depending on these factors. This quarter we take a closer look at the Bakken. Estimated Bakken production declined approximately 16% year-over-year through September, in line with the Eagle Ford, though worse than the production declines seen in the Permian (down approximately 5%) and Appalachia (essentially flat). However, the Bakken has rebounded strongly from production lows observed in May following April’s historic rout in crude oil prices. The Bakken was particularly impacted by production curtailments, driven in part by higher pricing differentials given the basin’s location, higher breakeven prices, and the fact that most operators in the basin have diverse operations, giving them optionality as to where to curtail production while being able to maintain cash flow necessary for near-term obligations (unlike pure-play counterparts). Region Focus: Bakken Production and Activity Levels Bakken Formation 1-Year Change in Production -40% -35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% Sep-19 O ct-19 N ov-19 D ec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 M ar-20 Apr-20 M ay-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Bakken Eagle Ford Permian Appalachia Source: EIA
  • 8. © 2020 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 6 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Third Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy The rig count in the Bakken stood at 10 as of September 18, down over 80% from the prior year. Only the Eagle Ford has seen a more severe drop in rigs, with the rig count declining by more than 86% during the same period. While swift, the decline has stabilized. The Bakken’s rig count has ranged from 9 to 11 rigs during the third quarter. However, a meaningful increase in rigs is unlikely given reduced capex budgets. Production and Activity Levels (cont.) 1-Year Change in Rig Count -100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% Sep-19 O ct-19 N ov-19 D ec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 M ar-20 Apr-20 M ay-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Bakken Eagle Ford Permian Appalachia Total Source: Baker Hughes Source: Baker Hughes
  • 9. © 2020 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 7 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Third Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy With Whiting’s restructuring (discussed in a subsequent section), the Bakken-focused peer group with meaningful historical trading activity has become quite small. Continental Resources is down approximately 57% year-over-year, though that isn’t much worse than the overall exploration production sector (as proxied by XOP, which is down 51% over the same period). Oasis Petroleum’s stock price has declined by approximately 88% over the past year and the company has filed for bankruptcy. Financial Performance 1-Year Change in Stock Price -100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% Sep-19 O ct-19 N ov-19 D ec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 M ar-20 Apr-20 M ay-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 CLR OAS XOP Source: Capital IQ Source: Capital IQ
  • 10. © 2020 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 8 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Third Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy We note that neither company is pure-play Bakken, as Continental has a sizeable acreage position in Oklahoma’s SCOOP/STACK, and Oasis has operations in the Permian as well. Other publicly traded Bakken operators, including ExxonMobil, Marathon Oil, Hess, EOG, Ovintiv, ConocoPhillips, and QEP, also have diverse operations outside the basin. Northern Oil Gas, which has traditionally focused on owning non-operating working interests in the Bakken, has expanded outside the basin with acquisitions in the Permian. Equinor, which entered the Bakken with its $4.7 billion acquisition of Brigham Exploration, announced that it is halting all U.S. shale drilling and well completion activity. The lack of a pure-play Bakken peer set makes it difficult to draw conclusions specific to the basin, but is also a telling fact about the difficult operating conditions in the area. Whiting Petroleum, which announced its Chapter 11 reorganization process in April, emerged from bankruptcy in September. The reorganization process allowed Whiting to reduce its debt load by more than $3 billion, from over $3.4 billion to just $425 million. While shareholders were able to avoid being completely wiped out, the restructuring was extremely dilutive. Legacy shareholders now own approximately 3% of the equity of the new entity. On September 30, Oasis Petroleum announced that it entered into a restructuring support agreement with its lenders. The voluntary Chapter 11 process is expected to be completed quickly, as the company expects to emerge from bankruptcy in November. Financial Performance (cont.) Whiting Emerges, Enters Bankruptcy
  • 11. © 2020 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 9 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Third Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy Energy Transfer’s Dakota Access Pipeline (“DAPL”), which was the subject of protests in 2016 and 2017, is under renewed legal action. The pipeline, which was instrumental in helping minimize pricing differentials in the land- locked Bakken relative to other basins, has the capacity to transport 570 mbbl/d of crude oil from the Bakken to a hub in Illinois, with connections to pipelines serving refining markets in the Midwest and Gulf Coast. In July, a judge ruled that DAPL must be shut down and emptied by August 5, pending an environmental review by the Army Corps of Engineers. A U.S. appeals court reversed the shutdown order in August, though requirement for the environmental review is still under appeal. Based on the current trial schedule, DAPL should be able to continue operating through at least late December before a federal court could mandate another shutdown. Despite the renewed legal scrutiny, Energy Transfer is pushing forward with an expansion plan which would roughly double DAPL’s capacity. The additional capacity is expected to come online in the third quarter of 2021. The Bakken was hit the hardest by curtailments driven by low commodity prices, but has also seen the sharpest rebound in production. Restructurings by Whiting and Oasis should add stability to the basin, though the recent bank- ruptcies of Bakken-focused operators are indicative of challenging economics. While operating conditions are difficult across the U.S., the stress appears quite acute in the Bakken. Dakota Access Pipeline Under Siege Again
  • 12. © 2020 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 10 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Third Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy MA in the Bakken: Immense Drop in Deal Activity Due to COVID Concerns Over the past several years, the Bakken has generally had much lighter acquisition and divestiture activity than other major basins in the United States. Given that deal activity across the energy sector has dropped an immense 42.7 percent over the past year, acquisition and divestiture activity has dropped even further in this basin over the past year. Observed deal activity has largely been the result of Northern Oil and Gas growing its production base in the area during the past several years. Market Valuations Transaction History Transactions in the Bakken Announced Date Buyer Seller Deal Value ($MM) $ / Acre $ / Boepd 8/3/20 Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. Undisclosed Seller $6 $14,500 nm 6/11/20 Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. Undisclosed Seller $2 $4,688 nm 11/1/19 Undisclosed Buyer Gulfport Energy Corp. $8 nm $116,618 8/15/19 Panhandle Oil and Gas Inc. Undisclosed Seller $5 $7,453 nm 7/31/19 Undisclosed Buyer Whiting Petroleum Corp. $53 $7,794 $75,391 6/5/19 Undisclosed Buyer Abraxas Petroleum Corp. $16 $31,000 $44,286 6/4/19 Resource Energy Can-am LLC Undisclosed Seller --- nm nm 4/22/19 Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. Flywheel Energy LLC $180 $10,000 $27,273 4/3/19 Empire Petroleum Corp. Energyquest Ii Llc --- nm nm Median $8 $8,897 $59,838 Average $38 $12,572 $65,892 Source: Shale Experts *Does not include every transaction in the region for 2019-2020
  • 13. © 2020 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 11 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Third Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy Northern Oil has constituted approximately two-thirds of the observed deal activity (based on disclosed deal value) in the basin, including its bolt on acquisitions in June and August 2020 for several hundred acres. This activity furthers Northern Oil’s mission of building out its core position in non-operating interests through consistent, strategic acquisitions. Although production is down across the country, wells are slowly beginning to come back online, and Northern Oil believes increasing inventory while pricing is advantageous should drive returns in the future. According to Northern COO Adam Dirlam, “We continue to add to our core inventory. Record levels of wells-in-process should drive strong volumes and improve upon our return on capital employed metrics in 2021 and beyond.” Since the start of 2018, the company has made six large publicly announced transactions totaling more than $820 million, including its large acquisition of private equity-backed Flywheel Energy LLC in April 2019. Below is a map of Northern Oil’s acreage to show its overall footprint in the basin. The energy industry in Q1 and Q2 2020 has seen extreme volatility that has had investors and oper- ators alike remaining cautious and waiting to see what happens next. As a result, acquisition and divestiture activity has been put on the back burner as companies struggle to plan ahead while remaining solvent. As we moved from the second quarter to the third quarter, fundamentals in the Bakken have steadily improved as crude oil pipeline and storage limita- tions were alleviated. Stabilization of WTI pricing and well differentials in the region over the past couple of months have also aided as well. Com- panies like Northern Oil look towards the future as demand begins to creep upward from its mid-year lows, and the company has taken advantage of lower pricing to accrete acreage to its core position. Market Valuations Transaction History Northern Oil and Gas Continues Core Acreage Buildout Northern Oil Acreage in Williston Basin Core 182,899 net acres Source: Northern Oil Gas, Inc - September 2020 2020 DC 2020 PDP
  • 14. © 2020 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 12 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Third Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy as of 9/30/2020 Company Name Ticker 9/30/2020 Enterprise Value YoY % Change in Stock Price EBITDAX Margin EV/ EBITDAX Daily Production (mboe/d) Price per Flowing Barrel* Global Integrated Exxon Mobil Corp XOM $252,995 -36.67% 12.0% 9.9x 3,746 $67,545 Royal Dutch Shell PLC RDS/A $202,107 -44.45% 15.7% 4.9x 3,391 $59,601 Chevron Corp CVX $193,998 -24.76% 19.6% 8.6x 2,996 $64,756 BP PLC BP $143,303 -38.62% 5.7% 10.9x 3,575 $40,083 Equinor ASA EQNR $63,301 -23.59% 24.2% 5.0x 2,126 $29,780 Group Median -36.67% 15.7% 8.6x 3,391 $59,601 Global EP Marathon Oil Corp MRO $9,975 -50.12% 59.2% 4.2x 377 $26,445 Hess Corp HES $24,134 -14.34% 7.0% 63.0x 328 $73,599 ConocoPhillips COP $53,169 -26.25% 44.3% 4.9x 1,138 $46,735 Occidental Petroleum Corp OXY $65,613 -58.85% -5.8% nm 1,346 $48,760 Noble Energy Inc NBL $13,017 -60.11% -42.6% nm 357 $36,499 Apache Corp APA $15,614 -47.27% -89.5% nm 428 $36,514 Murphy Oil Corp MUR $5,936 -37.58% 31.0% 7.2x 178 $33,264 Group Median -47.27% 7.0% 6.1x 377 $36,514 Source: Bloomberg L.P. • Price per Flowing Barrel is EV/daily production ($/boe/d) • We review 10-K’s and annual reports from guideline companies to ensure companies continue to operate in the regions and groups we have identified. Mercer Capital tracks the performance of Exploration and Production companies across different mineral reserves in order to understand how the current pricing envi- ronment affects operators in each region. We created an index of seven groups to better understand performance trends across reserves and the industry. The current pricing multiples of each company in the index are summarized below. Appendix A Selected Public Company Information
  • 15. © 2020 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 13 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Third Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy as of 9/30/2020 Company Name Ticker 9/30/2020 Enterprise Value YoY % Change in Stock Price EBITDAX Margin EV/ EBITDAX Daily Production (mboe/d) Price per Flowing Barrel* North American EP Devon Energy Corp DVN $7,544 -52.87% -11.4% nm 326 $23,164 QEP Resources Inc QEP $2,233 -65.14% 61.6% 3.6x 80 $28,044 WPX Energy Inc WPX $6,752 -39.75% 34.1% 12.1x 211 $32,072 Group Median -52.87% 34.1% 7.9x 211 $28,044 Bakken Continental Resources Inc/OK CLR $12,524 -43.07% 58.6% 6.3x 288 $43,414 Group Median -43.07% 58.6% 6.3x 288 $43,414 Appalachia Range Resources Corp RRC $4,699 47.38% -68.9% nm 380 $12,358 EQT Corp EQT $7,658 11.84% -10.2% nm 669 $11,444 Cabot Oil Gas Corp COG $7,986 -2.22% 57.6% 8.6x 393 $20,295 Antero Resources Corp AR $7,061 -15.89% 15.4% 11.6x 570 $12,392 Gulfport Energy Corp GPOR $2,086 -59.78% -189.4% nm 174 $11,986 Southwestern Energy Co SWN $3,964 32.64% -36.6% nm 386 $10,267 Group Median 4.81% -23.4% 10.1x 390 $12,172 Source: Bloomberg L.P. • Price per Flowing Barrel is EV/daily production ($/boe/d) • We review 10-K’s and annual reports from guideline companies to ensure companies continue to operate in the regions and groups we have identified. Appendix A Selected Public Company Information
  • 16. © 2020 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 14 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Third Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy as of 9/30/2020 Company Name Ticker 9/30/2020 Enterprise Value YoY % Change in Stock Price EBITDAX Margin EV/ EBITDAX Daily Production (mboe/d) Price per Flowing Barrel* Permian Basin Concho Resources Inc CXO $13,767 -24.15% -169.0% nm 310 $44,349 Parsley Energy Inc PE $7,623 -36.43% -154.2% nm 178 $42,791 Diamondback Energy Inc FANG $13,638 -53.49% -43.1% nm 296 $46,039 Centennial Resource Development Inc/DE CDEV $1,352 -80.29% 58.1% 3.1x 64 $21,040 Callon Petroleum Co CPE $3,855 -73.50% -100.6% nm 101 $38,300 Laredo Petroleum Inc LPI $1,435 475.10% -60.2% nm 81 $17,744 Pioneer Natural Resources Co PXD $18,354 -22.32% 29.3% 7.4x 346 $53,078 Cimarex Energy Co XEC $5,043 -42.66% -71.1% nm 251 $20,119 Group Median -39.54% -65.6% 5.3x 214 $40,546 Eagle Ford EOG Resources Inc EOG $33,047 -31.74% 47.4% 5.0x 740 $44,681 Magnolia Oil Gas Corp MGY $1,803 -45.41% -119.0% nm 62 $29,265 SilverBow Resources Inc SBOW $504 -66.87% -96.6% nm na na Penn Virginia Corp PVAC $679 -67.22% 52.9% 4.0x 21 $32,737 Group Median -56.14% -24.6% 4.5x 62 $32,737 OVERALL MEDIAN -39.18% 6.4% 6.8x 346 $33,264 Source: Bloomberg L.P. • Price per Flowing Barrel is EV/daily production ($/boe/d) • We review 10-K’s and annual reports from guideline companies to ensure companies continue to operate in the regions and groups we have identified. Appendix A Selected Public Company Information
  • 17. © 2020 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 15 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Third Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy Price per Flowing Barrel Appendix A Selected Public Company Information The following graph depicts the median of EV/production multiples, also known as price per flowing barrel, at the end of the past six quarters. As has been the case for some time now, operators in the Permian continue to lead the other regions in terms of valuation, although this margin is decreasing. All basins in the analyzed sample, the Permian, Eagle Ford, Bakken, and Appalachian saw an increase in their price per flowing barrel in the third quarter of 34%, 55%, 65%, and 18%, respectively. This increase can be explained by the small recovery in commodity prices since the COVID-19 demand destruction which occurred primarily in the second quarter. However, low commodity prices, relative to years past, have negatively impacted operators regardless of region, as all four basins have seen a decline in price per flowing barrel in the range of 2% to 36% since Q2 2019. • Price per Flowing Barrel is EV/ daily production ($/boe/d) • This is simply a graphic depiction of median figures of our selected public companies for each region. This should be interpreted solely in the context of relative valuation between the various basins over time. Bloomberg aggregates this raw data, and Mercer Capital does not represent or warrant these figures as indicative of valuation multiples attributable to EP companies or other interests. $0 $30,000 $60,000 $90,000 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2020 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 Bakken Eagle Ford Permian Appalachia Source: Bloomberg
  • 18. © 2020 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 16 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Third Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy Appendix B Production The Permian, Eagle Ford, Bakken, and Appalachia all experienced negative production growth over the last year, 1.9%, 24.0%, 17.2%, and 14.1%, respectively. Natural gas production in the Appalachia has increased 3.4% over the last year, whereas Permian production has grown 5.8% in the same time frame. Growth in the Eagle Ford decreased 15.9% year-over- year, and growth in the Bakken decreased 11.7%. Daily Production of Crude Oil 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 Sep-15 M ar-16 Sep-16 M ar-17 Sep-17 M ar-18 Sep-18 M ar-19 Sep-19 M ar-20 Sep-20 mmbbl/d Bakken Eagle Ford Permian Appalachia Source: EIA 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Sep-15 M ar-16 Sep-16 M ar-17 Sep-17 M ar-18 Sep-18 M ar-19 Sep-19 M ar-20 Sep-20 mmcf/d Bakken Eagle Ford Permian Appalachia Source: EIA Daily Production of Natural Gas
  • 19. © 2020 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 17 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Third Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy Appendix B Rig Count Rig Count by Region Baker Hughes collects and publishes information regarding active drilling rigs in the United States and internationally. The number of active rigs is a key indicator of demand for oilfield services equipment. Factors influencing rig counts include energy prices, investment climate, technological changes, regulatory activity, weather, and seasonality. The number of active rigs in the United States as of September 30, 2020 stood at 258, a 1.9% decrease from June 30, 2020, and a 70.0% decline from September 2019. The rig count in the Bakken decreased from 53 to 10 rigs in over the last year as EP operators are cutting rigs in light of recent demand issues. 1 Calculations based on monthly crude oil and gas production and EIA drilling report by region. 0 300 600 900 1,200 Sep-15 M ar-16 Sep-16 M ar-17 Sep-17 M ar-18 Sep-18 M ar-19 Sep-19 M ar-20 Sep-20 Bakken Eagle Ford Permian Appalachia Other Source: Baker Hughes
  • 20. © 2020 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 18 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // Third Quarter 2020 @MercerEnergy U.S. Rig Count by Oil vs. Natural GasAppendix B Rig Count U.S. Rig Count by Trajectory 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Sep-15 M ar-16 Sep-16 M ar-17 Sep-17 M ar-18 Sep-18 M ar-19 Sep-19 M ar-20 Sep-20 Source: Baker Hughes 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1/29/16 7/29/16 1/31/17 7/31/17 1/31/18 7/31/18 1/31/19 7/31/19 1/31/20 7/31/20 Directional Horizontal Vertical Source: Baker Hughes Oil Natural Gas