Cintas Corporation HOLD recommendation and $81 price target
1. Matt Bender | Michael Loffredo |AlexVielmetti | JoeWavering
Cintas Corporation
“The Service Professionals”
CFA Institute Research Challenge 2014 – 2015 ▪ Miami University, Oxford, Ohio
2. Initiation & Company Overview
Industry Landscape
Valuation
Risks & Recommendation
Appendix
3
8
12
16
18
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Overview
Industry Landscape Valuation Risks &
Recommendation
Appendix
Initiation Overview
We recommend Cintas Corporation as a HOLD with a 12 month price target of $81.00,
which represents an upside of 0.77% from the current share price of $81.32, inclusive of a
projected $0.95 dividend
Moving forward, we see several key factors that will result in a NEUTRAL performance for Cintas
Future opportunities for organic growth will be limited as route saturation and poor add/stops conditions
persist in certain segments
Continued emphasis on cross-selling and diversified products to improve margins
Commanding market share allows for economies of scale and possibility of bolt-on acquisitions
Aggressive plan of returning capital, including share buybacks to bolster EPS growth
Sources: Team Projections
3
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Overview
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Recommendation
Appendix
Company Overview
Key Statistics Stock Performance
FY 2014 Revenue Breakdown
71%
10%
11%
8%
Rental Uniforms &
Ancillary Products
Uniform Direct Sales
First Aid, Safety &
Fire Protection
Document
Management
Business Overview
Cintas Corporation operates in the commercial
service & supplies industry
Cintas maintains over 430 facilities and eight
distribution centers across NorthAmerica
Employs over 30,000 people
Headquartered in Cincinnati, OH
NASDAQ: CTAS
Sources: Company 10-K, Bloomberg
Market Data Value
Current Price $81.32 EV/EBITDA 12.72x
Market Cap. $9,303 M EV/Sales 2.28x
Annual Dividend $0.85 Price/Book 4.55x
Dividend Yield 1.05% Price/Earnings 25.94x
FCF per Basic Share 3.43 PEG 2.12
Operations Capital Structure
Gross Margin 42.10% Debt $1,300 M
EBITDA Margin 17.52% Cash & Equivalents $513 M
Operating Margin 13.71% Quick Ratio 1.6x
Profit Margin 9.80% Current Ratio 2.9x
4
0
2
4
6
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
4/11/2014 7/10/2014 10/8/2014 1/6/2015 4/6/2015
Millions
Volume Price
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Appendix
Contract Structure Rental & Ancillary Revenue
Margins by Product OfferingDistribution Logistics
Cintas operates its core business through a
trucking system of distribution
Management aims to “saturate” routes to maximize
revenue per driver and expand margins
Route logistics are proprietary and seen as a
source of competitive advantage
Rental contracts are subject to yearly price
increases in accordance with CPI
Average contract length is five years
Allows margins to stay relatively consistent across
temporary economic downswings
MarginsAnalysis
15.7% 10.3% 15.3% 2.5%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Rental Uniforms &
Ancillary Products
Uniform Direct
Sales
First Aid, Safety &
Fire Protection
Document
Management
Operating Margin SG&A COGS
Sources: Company 10-K, Bloomberg, FY 2014 Earnings Call
52%
19%
16%
5%
8%
Uniform Rental
Dust Control
Hygiene & Other
Services
Shop Towels
Linen & Other
5
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Recommendation
Appendix
Document Divestment
Formed a partnership
with Shred-it
Cintas owns 42% of
the combined entity
and received $180M
at the time of sale
Shred-it is expected to
have annual revenues
> $600 million
North America United Kingdom
Sold its UK-based
document
management division
to Restore PLC. for
$38 million
In 2014, Cintas decided to divest
its Document Management
Division
Sold their Document Storage and
Imaging business to three separate
buyers for $180 million
Did not fit intended future of the
company
Returned much of the additional
cash to shareholders with a special
dividend
Sources: Company 10-K, Company Press Releases, Shred-It, Restore PLC
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Appendix
DividendYields Debt Levels
Return of CapitalShare Buybacks
Recently issued a special dividend to return cash
that was acquired from the divestment of the
shredding business
Cintas has been very aggressive with share
buybacks, signaling confidence in the company
The recent run-up in the share price lowers the
effectiveness of the buyback program
Cintas continues to fund share buybacks and
dividends with mainly operational cash flow
Management refuses to hold an aggressive debt
level to protect their BBB+ rating
Moving forward this trend will likely continue
with Debt/EBITDA levels staying around 1.5x
Capital Usage
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
CTAS GK ARMK UNF
Sources: Company 10-K, Company Conference Call, Bloomberg
7
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
40
80
120
160
FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 Current
Millions
YOY Change Diluted Weighted Avg Shares
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Appendix
Breadth of ServicesAnalysis MarginsAnalysis of Rental Segment
Uniform Rental By RevenueMajor Players
The majority of pure play uniform rentals exist as
smaller companies, as the larger companies
provide a wide variety of services
Beyond the major players within the industry,
about 400 smaller uniform rental businesses exist
These smaller companies serve limited geographic
areas but are active in industry consolidation
Industry Landscape
30.0%
12.7%
10.0%6.5%
40.8%
Cintas
Aramark
UniFirst
G&K
Other
15.7% 16.8% 10.7% 11.6%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Cintas UniFirst G&K Aramark
Operating Income SG&A Expense COGS
Sources: Unifirst 10-K,Company 10-K, IBIS World
8
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Recommendation
Appendix
Cross-Selling NetAdd/Stops Metric
M&A Activity in Rental Services
$12.4
$22.2
$40.4
$32.5 $32.9
$29.2
272
340
366
421
346
278
0
100
200
300
400
500
$0.0
$20.0
$40.0
$60.0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
NumberofDeals
DealValue(Billions)
Deal Value Number of Deals
Cintas pushes differentiated products to current
rental uniform customers to widen margins and
increase the customers’ reliance on them
If every customer were to add $10 in weekly
services, it would result in over $400M in
additional net income
Net amount of jobs added or lost by rental service
customers
Generally a good indicator of the health of the
uniform rental service industry
Industries that use this metric are typically more
cyclical than the overall economy
IndustryTrends
Sources: Baird Research, Company Presentation, FY 2014 Earnings Call
9
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Appendix
-8.00%
-6.00%
-4.00%
-2.00%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Total Non-Farm Employment vs.Add/Stop Employment Index (YOY Change)
Add/Stops Employment Index BLS Total Non-Farm Employment
Add/Stops Employment Index
Growth in rental add/stops continues
to outperform NFP employment
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics
10
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Appendix
2014Add/Stops Component Industries
361
66
63
165
67
29
28
13
34
15
(8)
42
10
Food Services and Drinking Places
Motor Vehnicle and Parts Dealers
Food and Beverage Stores
Specialty Trade Contractors
Wholesale Trade - Durable Goods
Wholesale Trade - Nondurable Goods
Fabricated Metal Products
Gasoline Stations
Machinery Manufacturing
Chemical Manufacturing
Food Manufacturing
Truck Transportation
Repair and Maintenance
2014 Employment Change (thousands)
Core industrial markets are more
indicative of changes in the add/stops for
Cintas specifically
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics
11
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Appendix
$60.00 $70.00 $80.00 $90.00 $100.00
Comparables EV/EBITDA Multiple
Comparables P/E Multiple
Base DCF Perpetuity Growth
Base DCF Exit Multiple
Leveraged Buyout
Summary
Valuation Overview
Sources: Team Projections
FY15 Forward P/E 17.0x 19.9x 22.7x 25.6x
$81.00
12
28.4x
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Appendix
ComparablesValuation Historical P/E
Diluted EPSPeer Group
Price to Earnings ratio is at a decade high
EPS projected to grow at a lowerYoY rate than in
years past
Comparables show that Cintas is slightly under
valued on P/E multiple due to outliers
EV/EBITDA multiple shows downside due to
depressed UK-based comparables
Multiples Analyses
10x
15x
20x
25x
30x
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
TTM P/E Annual Average P/E
Sources: Company 10-k, Bloomberg, Team Projections
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
$0.00
$2.00
$4.00
$6.00
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E
Base YOY Growth Bear Base Bull
13
Implied Valuation
EV/EBITDA
1st Quartile Median Mean 3rd Quartile
Implied Share Price $52.19 $65.17 $72.91 $92.92
Upside (35.8%) (19.9%) (10.3%) 14.3%
P/E
1st Quartile Median Mean 3rd Quartile
Implied Share Price $79.73 $91.31 $95.73 $106.64
Upside (2.0%) 12.3% 17.7% 31.1%
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Appendix
Exit Multiple Sensitivity Perpetuity Sensitivity
Perpetuity DCFValuationExit Multiple DCFValuation
Discounted Cash Flow
Sources: Team Projections, Bloomberg
Exit Multiple of 12.0x
Terminal Value 11,840,494
PV of Free Cash Flows 1,675,228
PV of Terminal Value 8,704,972
Implied Enterprise Value 10,400,200
Net Debt 854,686
Equity Value 9,545,514
Shares Outstanding 114,394
Implied Price per Share $83.44
Implied Difference to Current Price 2.61%
PPG Method at 2.75%
Terminal Value 11,519,906
PV of Free Cash Flows 1,675,228
PV of Terminal Value 8,488,738
Implied Enterprise Value 10,163,966
Net Debt 854,686
Equity Value 9,309,280
Shares Outstanding 114,394
Implied Price per Share $81.38
Implied Difference to Current Price (0.07%)
WACC
ExitMultiple
$83.44 8.4% 7.9% 7.4% 6.9% 6.4%
13.0x $86.23 $87.99 $89.80 $91.65 $93.55
12.5x $83.17 $84.88 $86.62 $88.41 $90.24
12.0x $80.12 $81.76 $83.44 $85.17 $86.93
11.5x $77.06 $78.65 $80.27 $81.93 $83.62
11.0x $74.01 $75.53 $77.09 $78.68 $80.32
WACC
PerpetuityGrowth
$81.38 8.4% 7.9% 7.4% 6.9% 6.4%
3.3% $71.59 $80.09 $90.62 $103.99 $121.54
3.0% $68.46 $76.23 $85.74 $97.66 $113.03
2.8% $65.62 $72.74 $81.38 $92.07 $105.66
2.5% $63.01 $69.57 $77.46 $87.12 $99.22
2.3% $60.61 $66.68 $73.92 $82.69 $93.56
14
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Appendix
Leverage Ratio Sensitivity Exit Multiple Sensitivity
Transaction SummaryTransaction Potential
Financial stability and cash flow generation creates
potential for a financial takeover
Large relative size within market makes a strategic
takeover highly unlikely
Long history of Farmer family involvement in
executive positions suggests reluctance to yield
ownership
Implied Enterprise Value 10,223,467.9 Equity Value 9,435,776
Leverage Ratio 8.0x Enterprise Value 10,223,468
Sponsor Target IRR 17.5% EBITDA Purchase Multiple 13.5x
Minimum Cash $20,000.0 EBITDA Exit Multiple 13.0x
Exit Year 2019 Debt Used 6,062,976
% of Total Ratio
Leverage Ratio 8.0x
Revolver 0.0% 0.0x
Term Loan A 37.5% 3.0x
Term Loan B 31.3% 2.5x
Subordinated Note 18.8% 1.5x
Mezzanine Debt 12.5% 1.0x
Leveraged Buyout
Interest Rates
Revolver L+ 175 bps
Term Loan A L+ 330 bps
Term Loan B 4.5%
Subordinated Note 7.0%
Mezzanine Debt 9.0%
Leverage Ratio
TargetIRR
7543.8% 7.0x 7.5x 8.0x 8.5x 9.0x
12.0% $87.68 $90.87 $94.06 $97.25 $100.45
14.5% $82.38 $85.57 $88.76 $91.95 $95.15
17.0% $73.67 $76.86 $80.05 $83.25 $86.44
19.5% $73.67 $76.86 $80.05 $83.25 $86.44
22.0% $70.09 $73.28 $76.47 $79.66 $82.85
Exit Multiple
TargetIRR
7543.8% 11.5x 12.0x 12.5x 13.0x 13.5x
12.0% $85.35 $88.25 $94.06 $94.06 $96.97
14.5% $80.98 $83.57 $88.76 $88.76 $91.36
17.0% $73.79 $75.88 $80.05 $80.05 $82.14
19.5% $73.79 $75.88 $80.05 $80.05 $82.14
22.0% $70.83 $72.71 $76.47 $76.47 $78.35
Sources: Team Projections, Bloomberg
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Appendix
Positioning Analysis
Fluctuating currency
exchange rates
Cross-selling products to
improve margins
M&A opportunities to
expand distribution or
bring in new product lines
Low involvement with the food
services industry which is currently
the main driver of add/stops growth
W
TO
Economies of scale
Extensive customer network
Strong cash flow generation
Experienced management team
S
Minimum amounts of debt
lead to higher cost of capital
Employee unionization
Macroeconomic downturn
Increased OSHA
regulatory efforts
Sources: Company 10-K, IBIS World
16
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Appendix
Final Rating
Sources: Team Projections
Future opportunities for organic growth will be limited as route saturation and poor add/stops conditions
persist in certain segments
Continued emphasis on cross-selling and diversified products to improve margins
Commanding market share allows for economies of scale and possibility of bolt-on acquisitions
Aggressive plan of returning capital, including share buybacks to bolster EPS growth
We recommend Cintas Corporation as a HOLD with a 12 month price target of $81.00,
which represents an upside of 0.77% from the current share price of $81.32, inclusive of a
projected $0.95 dividend
17
Moving forward, we see several key factors that will result in a NEUTRAL performance for Cintas
19. 11
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Appendix
Appendix Contents
Competitor Overview
Corporate Governance
ComparablesAnalysis
Discounted Cash Flows
Input Determinants
Base Case Income Statement
Bull Case Income Statement
Bear Case Income Statement
Base Case Balance Sheet
Base Case Statement of Cash Flows
Bull Case Discounted Cash Flows
Bear Case Discounted Cash Flows
Distribution Center Locations
Disclosures
19
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Appendix
G&K Indexed Performance
UniFirstAramark
Began in food vending industry
Focused on food & support services
Uniform supply is simply complimentary
Primary customers:“construction, utilities,
repair and maintenance, hospitality and
food service industries.”
Manufacture 70% of uniforms supplied
Largest in-house digital image processing
capability
Primary customers:“automobile services,
delivery services, merchandise retailers,
food processors, and light manufacturers”
Manufacture 47% of uniforms supplied
Focusing on uniform rentals after it sold off
its direct uniform sales operations
Primary customers:“automotive,
warehousing, distribution, transportation,
energy, manufacturing, food processing,
pharmaceutical, retail, and restaurants”
Competitor Overview
Sources: Bloomberg, IBIS World, Competitor 10-k
20
Back
80
100
120
140
160
4/11/2014 8/11/2014 12/11/2014 4/11/2015
Indexedto100
CTAS GK UNF ARMK
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Appendix
Codes of Conduct
Experienced Board ManagementHistory
Cintas was built into its beginning modern form in
1959 by Richard Farmer, who began the first
rental businesses
The Farmer family has managed Cintas throughout
its history and has continued to after the IPO in
1983
Strong culture of aggressive growth and budgetary
control set by consistent management
GeraldAdolph has extensive experience advising
corporations on merger activity
Senior partner in BoozAllen consulting
Strong strategic advantage when evaluating
mergers
Robert Kohlhepp, former CEO and current
Chairman of the Board, has been an employee of
Cintas since 1967
Will this action endanger anyone’s life, health, or safety?
Is it legal?
Will I be violating either a law or a company policy?
How would I feel if my actions were disclosed to the
media?
How will my actions make me feel about myself?
Corporate Governance
Sources: Cintas Website, Cintas 10-k
21
Back
Board Backgrounds
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Appendix
Base Case Statement of Cash Flows
29
BackSources: Bloomberg, Team Projections, Company 10-k
Statement of Cash Flows Historical Projections
In thousands of dollars except for Per Share data 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1 Aug. Q2 Nov. Q3 Feb. Q4 May 2015E Q1 Aug. Q2 Nov. Q3 Feb. Q4 May 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E
Cash flows from operating activities:
Net income 215,620 246,989 297,637 315,442 374,442 110,108 120,412 94,883 106,194 431,597 97,908 114,099 91,995 117,777 421,779 426,444 461,725 474,784
Adjustments to reconcile net income to net cash
Depreciation 152,059 150,886 155,831 165,664 168,220 35,448 35,003 34,499 51,938 156,888 37,729 49,977 49,157 51,176 188,039 150,724 159,592 169,044
Amortization of deferred charges 41,082 42,581 38,334 23,713 22,642 4,206 3,496 3,388 3,831 15,700 2,825 2,825 2,825 2,825 11,300 6,700 5,700 5,400
Stock-based compensation 15,349 15,203 20,312 23,310 29,875 12,280 12,505 11,231 0 36,016 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Deferred income taxes 13,295 47,908 56,727 48,023 47,109 2,108 8,238 5,082 0 15,428 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Gain on Storage transaction 0 0 0 0 0 0 (34,137) (899) 0 (35,036)
Gain on deconsolidation of Shredding 0 0 0 0 (106,441) (6,619) 0 0 0 (6,619) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Gain on sale of stock of an equity method investment 0 0 0 0 0 (21,739) 0 0 0 (21,739) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Shredding transaction asset impairment charge 0 0 0 0 16,143 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Shredding transaction costs 0 0 0 0 26,057 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Loss on investment in Shred-it 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11,189 0 11,189
Change in current assets and liabilities:
Accounts receivable, net 1,140 (48,986) (24,261) (42,704) (56,231) 8,222 (20,969) 9,579 (3,839) (7,007) (6,018) (15,213) 8,589 (15,309) (27,952) (13,940) (31,987) (34,098)
Inventories, net 30,293 (78,824) (2,330) 10,997 (11,062) 1,377 13,470 523 (10,286) 5,084 (6,487) (7,711) 1,409 (4,455) (17,244) (2,363) (6,626) (5,078)
Uniforms and other rental items in service 4,164 (58,180) (60,279) (44,179) (11,435) (7,112) (16,361) 1,270 16,226 (5,977) (17,771) (9,861) 8,793 (21,632) (40,472) (9,369) (32,809) (34,975)
Prepaid expenses 3,715 360 (1,496) (3,281) (2,177) (5,884) 3,262 1,013 (6,372) (7,981) (346) (548) 488 (1,202) (1,607) 5,341 (1,478) (1,575)
Accounts payable 8,939 29,215 (12,557) 25,023 30,446 (1,325) 29,307 25,397 (51,990) 1,389 7,484 4,737 (865) 2,737 14,092 10,121 9,604 9,141
Accrued compensation and related liabilities 18,393 12,493 11,625 (13,161) 10,931 (41,262) 16,151 18,025 3,602 (3,484) (34,440) 13,685 30,801 (9,771) 275 9,097 5,371 8,965
Accrued liabilities and other 47,528 (2,167) (20,371) 31,873 54,237 10,384 14,396 (22,939) (24,349) (22,508) 6,821 85,993 (68,911) (5,772) 18,131 8,331 30,931 15,923
Income taxes payable 9,995 (16,592) 10,690 12,028 15,213 48,009 (40,401) (20,174) (34,448) (47,014) 52,655 (37,881) (19,578) 12,010 7,206 4,355 6,941 2,848
Assets and Liabilities up for sale 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20,520 20,520 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net cash provided by operating activities 561,572 340,886 469,862 552,748 607,969 148,201 144,372 172,067 71,028 536,447 140,359 200,102 104,702 128,384 573,547 595,441 606,963 610,377
Cash flows from investing activities:
Capital expenditures (111,078) (182,592) (160,802) (196,486) (145,580) (68,050) (44,975) (50,015) (57,709) (220,749) (72,417) (71,396) (70,224) (73,108) (287,145) (200,966) (212,789) (225,392)
Proceeds from sale or redemption of marketable securities 34,712 139,056 665,016 161,478 54,196 0 0 18,711 0 18,711 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Purchase of marketable securities and investments (81,269) (78,307) (585,655) (178,464) (65,858) (6,981) (4,997) (67,969) 0 (79,947) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Acquisitions of businesses, net of cash acquired (50,444) (171,552) (24,864) (69,370) (33,441) (2,328) (687) (10,783) 0 (13,798) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Proceeds from Storage transaction, net of cash contributed 0 0 0 0 0 0 153,996 895
Proceeds from Shredding transaction, net of cash contributed 0 0 0 0 179,359 3,344 0 0 0 3,344 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends received on equity method investment 0 0 0 0 0 5,247 0 0 0 5,247 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Proceeds from sale of stock of an equity method investment 0 0 0 0 0 29,933 0 0 0 29,933 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other, net 4,579 (5,198) 2,011 (1,339) (5,219) 16 1,665 (98) 0 1,583 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net cash used in investing activities (203,500) (298,593) (104,294) (284,181) (16,543) (38,819) 105,002 (109,259) (57,709) (100,785) (72,417) (71,396) (70,224) (73,108) (287,145) (200,966) (212,789) (225,392)
Cash flows from financing activities:
Proceeds from issuance of debt 0 1,002,281 0 250,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 300,000 0 400,000
Repayment of debt (603) (502,208) (1,323) (225,636) (8,187) (180) (184) (92) 0 (456) 0 0 0 0 0 (250,000) (300,000) 0
Exercise of stock-based compensation awards 0 0 3,341 14,807 41,902 13,623 8,849 9,484 0 31,956 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends paid (73,960) (71,812) (70,820) (79,744) (93,320) 0 0 (201,941) 0 (201,941) 0 0 (108,443) 0 (108,443) (115,231) (123,379) (135,478)
Repurchase of common stock (969) (443,690) (392,328) (215,681) (370,599) (61,439) (2,134) (251,075) (55,000) (369,648) (55,000) (55,000) (55,000) (55,000) (220,000) (250,000) (200,000) (250,000)
Other, net (977) (4,609) 555 196 469 6,798 (5,040) 1,381 0 3,139 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net cash used in financing activities (76,509) (20,038) (460,575) (256,058) (429,735) (41,198) 1,491 (442,243) (55,000) (536,950) (55,000) (55,000) (163,443) (55,000) (328,443) (315,231) (623,379) 14,522
Effect of exchange rate changes on cash and cash equivalents (27) 4,570 (3,274) (61) (676) (19) (5,594) (1,975) 0 (7,588) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net increase (decrease) in cash and cash equivalents 281,536 26,825 (98,281) 12,448 161,015 68,165 245,271 (381,410) (41,681) (109,655) 12,942 73,706 (128,965) 276 (42,041) 79,245 (229,205) 399,507
Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of period 129,745 411,281 438,106 339,825 352,273 513,288 581,453 826,724 445,314 513,288 403,633 416,575 490,281 361,316 403,633 361,592 440,837 211,633
Cash and cash equivalents at end of period 411,281 438,106 339,825 352,273 513,288 $581,453 $826,724 $445,314 $403,633 $403,633 $416,575 $490,281 $361,316 $361,592 $361,592 $440,837 $211,633 $611,139
30. 11
Initiation & Company
Overview
Industry Landscape Valuation Risks &
Recommendation
Appendix
Bull Case Discounted Cash Flow
Exit Multiple of 12.0x PPG Method at 2.75%
Terminal Value 12,768,686 Terminal Value 12,635,116
PV of Free Cash Flows 1,790,878 PV of Free Cash Flows 1,790,878
PV of Terminal Value 9,408,934 PV of Terminal Value 9,310,509
Implied Enterprise Value 11,199,812 Implied Enterprise Value 11,101,387
Net Debt 854,686 Net Debt 854,686
Equity Value 10,345,126 Equity Value 10,246,701
Shares Outstanding 114,394 Shares Outstanding 114,394
Implied Price per Share $90.43 Implied Price per Share $89.57
Implied Difference to Current Price 9.66% Implied Difference to Current Price 4.07%
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31. 11
Initiation & Company
Overview
Industry Landscape Valuation Risks &
Recommendation
Appendix
Bear Case Discounted Cash Flow
Exit Multiple of 12.0x PPG Method at 2.75%
Terminal Value 10,690,020 Terminal Value 9,949,220
PV of Free Cash Flows 1,483,843 PV of Free Cash Flows 1,483,843
PV of Terminal Value 7,877,216 PV of Terminal Value 7,331,339
Implied Enterprise Value 9,361,059 Implied Enterprise Value 8,815,182
Net Debt 854,686 Net Debt 854,686
Equity Value 8,506,373 Equity Value 7,960,496
Shares Outstanding 114,394 Shares Outstanding 114,394
Implied Price per Share $74.36 Implied Price per Share $69.59
Implied Difference to Current Price (9.85%) Implied Difference to Current Price (18.91%)
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32. 11
Initiation & Company
Overview
Industry Landscape Valuation Risks &
Recommendation
Appendix
Distribution Center Locations
Legend
Distribution Center
Sources: Company Website
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33. 11
Initiation & Company
Overview
Industry Landscape Valuation Risks &
Recommendation
Appendix
Disclosures
Ownership and material conflicts of interest:
The author(s), or a member of their household, of this report does not hold a financial interest in the securities of this company.
The author(s), or a member of their household, of this report does not know of the existence of any conflicts of interest that might bias the content or publication of this report.
Receipt of compensation:
Compensation of the author(s) of this report is not based on investment banking revenue.
Position as an officer or director:
The author(s), or a member of their household, does not serve as an officer, director or advisory board member of the subject company.
Market making:
The author(s) does not act as a market maker in the subject company’s securities.
Disclaimer:
The information set forth herein has been obtained or derived from sources generally available to the public and believed by the author(s) to be reliable, but the author(s) does not
make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness. The information is not intended to be used as the basis of any investment decisions by any
person or entity. This information does not constitute investment advice, nor is it an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. This report should not be considered
to be a recommendation by any individual affiliated with CFA Societies Cincinnati, Columbus, and Dayton, CFA Institute or the CFA Institute Research Challenge with regard to this
company’s stock.
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