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The 2021 Emerging
Models in Real
Estate Report
Introducing The Emerging
Models in Real Estate Report
I’m fascinated by the opportunity in
real estate tech. The process of buying
and selling houses is complex and
uncertain, with many opportunities for
improvement. Smart entrepreneurs
and innovative companies around the
world are launching new models,
fueled by massive amounts of venture
capital.
In this report, I cover the major trends
that are shaping the industry and the
major players gaining market share.
The scope is global, because we all
have a lot to learn from each other, no
matter where we live.
Mike DelPrete
July 2021
Table of Contents
1. Overview
2. Disruption in the U.K.
3. The Rise of iBuyers
4. Power Buyers
5. Comparing Top Models
6. Real Estate Psychology
7. The Role of Agents
8. Key Learnings
Overview
One key question has guided this research.
What are the new models
gaining traction that are
changing the way people buy
and sell residential real estate?
This report is focused on the fastest moving, biggest
trends in residential real estate tech.
• The research is a market scan that pulls out facts, highlights
insights and draws conclusions. It’s meant to be
representative, not comprehensive.
• Many examples come from the U.S. market, because it is the
epicenter of real estate tech disruption – driven by
unprecedented amounts of venture capital.
• The scale between the U.S. and other markets is different, but
the trends are the same. Disruption in real estate appears to
follow similar paths globally.
Disruption in real estate is being driven by
unprecedented amounts of venture capital.
Source: GCA Advisors.
Over $35 billion since 2015, with $4.5 billion in just
the first three months of 2021.
Source: GCA Advisors.
That capital is subsidizing the creation of new
business models across the transaction spectrum.
Source: Nima Wedlake, Thomvest Ventures.
Including many focused on new and improved
models to buy and sell houses.
Source: Nima Wedlake, Thomvest Ventures.
Why? The market opportunity is massive, and real
estate hasn’t changed in decades.
Source: Opendoor and Zillow investor presentations, 2020.
Disruption in the U.K.
One prominent new model is the fixed-fee online
agency – born and scaled in the U.K.
• Customers pay a low, fixed-fee.
• Customers typically pay up-front, regardless of whether
the home sells.
• Online agencies offer broadly the same services as a
traditional agent, with agents in the field, a centralized
support operation, and all of it backed by a customer-
friendly tech platform.
A key part of the customer proposition is saving
consumers “thousands” when selling their home.
Source: Author’s research, 2018.
Note: Assumes £225,000 home price and 1.3% commission.
In 2018, fixed-fee online agencies in the U.K. offered
to save consumers an average of £2,000.
Purplebricks is the largest of the new breed of fixed-
fee online agency, based in the U.K.
• Founded in 2012, Purplebricks grew to become the #1 estate
agency in the U.K. based on number of transactions.
• Around 5% market share in the U.K. (~70K houses annually).
• Charges an up-front fee of £999 (£1,499 in London).
• Has an online platform and service centre to support its local
property experts.
• Expanded to Australia (2016), the U.S. (2017), and Canada
(2018).
Purplebricks’ U.K. growth was staggering. The
number of listings doubled annually for years.
Source: Purplebricks annual reports.
Purplebricks’ U.K. Listings
But more recently, beginning in 2019, that growth
began to slow (all before Covid-19).
Source: Purplebricks annual reports.
Purplebricks’ U.K. Listings
On average, a Purplebricks customer has a home
valued in line with the median value of the market.
Source: Author’s estimates based on Purplebricks’ FY20 number of instructions, total sales volume, and an 83% sales completion rate.
The Purplebricks
proposition appeals
to the “sweet spot”
in the middle of the
U.K. market.
Similar results were seen when Purplebricks
launched in Australia in 2017.
Source: Author’s research and public property listings.
Financially, the U.K. business reached profitability
once the business achieved scale in 2018.
Source: Purplebricks annual reports.
One secret to Purplebricks’ success? Lower
customer acquisition costs as it scaled.
Source: Purplebricks annual reports.
Purplebricks is just as much an effective marketing
company as it is a real estate business.
Source: Purplebricks annual reports.
During its growth phase, Purplebricks was able to
scale revenue without an increase in marketing.
Source: Purplebricks annual reports.
Purplebricks’ Revenue and Sales &
Marketing Growth
2x growth
flat
Purplebricks is winning
The growth of the fixed fee model in the U.K.
followed a “winner take most” dynamic.
Source: Zoopla and author’s analysis way back in February 2018.
Source: Purplebricks annual reports.
Which is unsurprising given the fragmented nature
of real estate.
All online agents offered the
same product with little to no
differentiation.
There were no benefits from
network effects. One customer,
one sale.
Purplebricks was able to
dominate the market by
outspending its competition.
Raising a lot of money doesn’t guarantee success,
but it’s impossible to succeed without it.
Note: Live listings as of February 2018.
The Purplebricks’ growth story to investors was
based on international expansion.
Australia
Canada
U.S.
2016
2017
2018
Purplebricks’ rising and falling stock price was
closely tied to its international expansion.
Stock
Price
Part of the reason the business struggled in the U.S.
was incredibly high customer acquisition costs.
$15k CAC for $3k
in revenue
Source: Author’s estimates and calculations in 2018.
Purplebricks’ marketing ROI in the U.S. and Australia
never matched the efficiency of the U.K. market.
Purplebricks’ Global Marketing ROI
Source: Author’s estimates and calculations in 2018.
Canada is an outlier because Purplebricks acquired
an existing, successful business in that market.
Purplebricks’ Global Marketing ROI
Source: Author’s estimates and calculations in 2018.
The Australian operation burned cash for years,
never coming close to reaching breakeven.
Purplebricks’ Australian Finances
Source: Purplebricks annual reports.
After several years of
investment, massive losses, and
limited traction, by 2020
Purplebricks had exited all of its
international markets.
At the time of Purplebricks’ U.K. launch, the largest
traditional agency incumbent was Countrywide.
2016 Company Snapshot
• £737M income
• £84M EBITDA
• ~£900M Market Cap
• 991 branches
• 11.5k employees
• 66k property transactions
• ~5% market share
Source: Countrywide 2016 annual report, relevant news stories.
Purplebricks’ rise coincided with the decimation of
Countrywide as a public company.
Purplebricks goes public
Countrywide’s Stock Price
Purplebricks launches
-97%
Chart: Google Finance.
To compete, Countrywide launched its own online
offering across its brands with a low, fixed fee.
But it suffered from a lack of strategic advantage as a
brand extension, rather than as a new fighter brand.
By launching a brand extension,
Countrywide missed out on the
classic benefits of a fighter
brand: eliminating competition,
protecting the existing premium
offering, and opening up new,
lower-end markets for the
organization.
Countrywide’s approach begs the
question: Was the offering truly
meant to succeed?
Source: Traditional vs Tech: How the U.K.’s biggest real estate incumbent is reacting to digital disruption, by Mike DelPrete
Countrywide vs. Purplebricks is
a cautionary tale of what’s at
stake for real estate
incumbents vs. disruptors.
The Rise of iBuyers
iBuyers buy homes directly from consumers, turning
the traditional home selling process on its head.
The iBuyer movement is led by Opendoor, founded in
2014, and currently the world’s largest iBuyer.
• Opendoor buys homes directly from consumers, quickly
spruces them up, and resells them on the open market.
• By March 2019, Opendoor had raised over $1.3 billion in equity,
$2.4 billion in debt, and was valued at close to $4 billion.
• In Dec 2020, Opendoor went public at a market cap of $14B.
• Opendoor offers a compelling customer proposition focused
on speed, certainty, and simplicity.
iBuying is being driven by multi-billion dollar
organizations, not scrappy start-ups.
Source: Public markets July 2021. Offerpad amount based on its upcoming SPAC.
$3B
projected market cap
$29B
market cap
$9B
market cap
$6.5B
market cap
In 2019, iBuyers accounted for nearly 60,000
transactions, or 0.5 percent of the U.S. market.
0.5%
National Market Share
Includes over 31,000 purchases and 28,000 sales.
Source: National public property records.
National iBuyer market share doubled in 2019, up
from around 0.2 percent in 2018.
Source: National public property records.
On average, iBuyers purchase homes valued
between $250k – $300k, the median U.S. price point.
Source: National public property records, author’s research.
$8.1+ Billion
Value of Homes Purchased in 2019
With over 31k purchases at an average price of
$260k, iBuyers bought $8.1+ billion of homes in 2019.
Source: National public property records.
Due to Covid-19, iBuyer transaction volumes were
down significantly – by about half – in 2020.
Source: National public property records.
In 2018, Opendoor dominated the iBuyer segment
with over 70 percent share of the market.
2018
Opendoor 70%
Zillow 3%
Offerpad 26%
Redfin 1%
iBuyer Segment Market Share
Source: National public property records, author’s estimates.
2018 2019
Opendoor 70% 64%
Zillow 3% 18%
Offerpad 26% 16%
Redfin 1% 2%
iBuyer Segment Market Share
Zillow’s rapid national expansion shifted the
segment materially in 2019.
Source: National public property records, author’s estimates.
2018 2019 2020
Opendoor 70% 64% 50%
Zillow 3% 18% 26%
Offerpad 26% 16% 23%
Redfin 1% 2% 1%
iBuyer Segment Market Share
And in 2020, iBuyer market share changed further,
with Zillow and Offerpad making market share gains.
Source: National public property records, author’s estimates.
Opendoor continues to lead the segment, with twice
the volume of its closest competitor in 2020.
Source: National public property records, author’s estimates.
Overall volumes are down significantly from 2019,
due to the negative effects of Covid-19 on iBuying.
Source: National public property records, author’s estimates.
-59%
-21%
-24%
The iBuyers have a growing national presence,
clustered in around two dozen markets.
Denver
Phoenix
Atlanta
Dallas
Houston
Charlotte
Raleigh
Las Vegas
Orlando
Tampa
Minneapolis
San Diego
Austin
San Antonio
Miami
Jacksonville
Nashville
Tucson
Portland
Sacramento
Riverside
Los Angeles
Salt Lake City
Note: Major market centers as of March 2021.
The top iBuyer markets, by purchase volume, are
Phoenix, Atlanta, Texas, and North Carolina.
Denver
Phoenix Atlanta
Dallas
Houston
Charlotte
Raleigh
San Antonio
Las Vegas
Orlando
Tampa
Minneapolis
Riverside
Top iBuyer Markets by Purchase Volume, 2019
www.mikedp.com
Source: National public property records.
The iBuyers began expanding into the previously
untouched Northeast market in early 2021.
Source: iBuyers Beginning to Target the Northeast Market, by Mike DelPrete.
The iBuyers have three primary sources of revenue.
Revenue = Service fee + Price appreciation + Ancillary services
The difference
between what an
iBuyer buys and
subsequently resells
a house for.
The fee charged
to the home
seller.
~5%+
5%–10%
Note: These are gross revenue numbers, and don’t include costs. Percentages based on actual market data.
Title insurance,
mortgage, brokerage
services, and more.
~2.5% target
The top iBuyers operate high gross revenue
businesses, with negative profit margins.
Opendoor Zillow Offerpad
Gross revenue $2.6 billion $1.7 billion $1.1 billion
Gross profit $220 million $98 million $88 million
Gross margin 8.5% 5.7% 8.2%
Contribution margin 3.5% (1.2%) 3.6%
Net margin (11.1%) (18.7%) (2.2%)
Revenue Comparison: 2020
Includes total value of
homes sold
Fees + home
appreciation
Fees + home
appreciation
After selling & holding
costs, and interest
After all expenses
Source: Public disclosures.
(11.1%)
(14.6%)
Margins are thin. When all expenses are included
(direct and indirect), the model is unprofitable.
Gross
Margin
8.5%
Selling
Costs
Holding
Costs
Interest
Expense
Contribution
Margin
Net Loss
(1.1%)
(1.1%)
(2.8%)
3.5%
Opendoor Unit Economics, 2020
Indirect
Expenses
Source: Opendoor’s S-4 filing and investor presentation.
Sales and marketing,
salaries, rent, legal,
technology, etc.
(18.7%)
(17.5%)
Zillow’s margins are even worse, reflecting the
massive upfront investment required.
Gross
Margin
5.7%
Source: Zillow’s public disclosures and filings.
Selling
Costs
Holding
Costs
Interest
Expense
Contribution
Margin
Net Loss
(1.2%)
(1.3%)
(4.5%)
(1.2%)
Zillow Offers Unit Economics, 2020
Indirect
Expenses
(2.2%)
Offerpad comes closest to profitability, driven by
significantly lower overhead expenses.
Gross
Margin
8.2%
Selling
Costs
Holding
Costs
Interest
Expense
Contribution
Margin
Net Loss
(0.5%)
(1.5%)
(2.9%)
3.3%
Offerpad Unit Economics, 2020
Indirect
Expenses
Source: Offerpad’s S-4 filing and investor presentation.
(5.5%)
With all expenses included, the major iBuyers are
losing tens of thousands of dollars per home.
Source: Public filings and investor presentations.
The path to iBuyer profitability involves monetizing
the entire transaction.
• It’s not about the house, it’s
about the transaction.
• There’s a larger ecosystem
play that hinges on being
able to monetize adjacencies
around the transaction.
• For iBuyers, that means
mortgage, title, and seller
leads on a path to
profitability.
Source: Opendoor investor presentation.
Power Buyers
Transaction
Search
Seller
Focus
Buyer
Focus
Portals
2005–2015
Investment and innovation in real estate tech really
began with the portals during the last decade.
Thought Credit: Propseller research for the framework.
Transaction
Search
Seller
Focus
Buyer
Focus
Portals
2005–2015
The focus was on improving the search experience
for home buyers.
Transaction
Search
Seller
Focus
Buyer
Focus
iBuyers
2016–2019
Portals
2005–2015
The previous few years saw the rise of iBuyers,
focused on the sell-side of the transaction.
Transaction
Search
Seller
Focus
Buyer
Focus
Power Buyers
2020–2021
iBuyers
2016–2019
Portals
2005–2015
The past year has seen the emergence of Power
Buyers, focused on the buy-side of the transaction.
Power Buyers empower buyers with products like
cash offers, bridge financing, and trade in programs.
Image Source: Orchard, Knock, and Homeward.
”Buy before you sell,” or the trade in model, is proving
to be popular in the hot market of 2021.
You move
in and relax
We list your old home
on market
We buy your
new home
with our cash
Old home sells
in 120 days or
we buy it
You purchase
new home
from us
Source: Orchard.
Orchard and Homeward saw 150%+ growth in 2020
and over 300%+ growth into 2021.
• Overall Power Buyer
volumes are in the low
thousands each, and
growing.
• While still relatively small,
the growth rates reflect a
strong product/market fit.
• Growth is accelerating,
partially driven by big
fundraising rounds in
2020 and 2021.
Source: Information obtained directly from the companies mentioned. 2021 estimate based on current run-rate.
The major Power Buyer markets overlap the major
iBuyer markets.
Source: Major markets and states for Orchard, Homeward, Knock, and Flyhomes.
Denver
Phoenix
Atlanta
Dallas
Houston
Charlotte
Raleigh
Orlando
Tampa
Minneapolis
Austin
San Antonio
Miami
Jacksonville
Nashville
Tucson
Greater D.C.
San Diego
Los Angeles
Portland
Boston
The Power Buyers are digitally integrating all aspects
of the transaction, including mortgage and title.
The results are industry-leading attach rates.
70%+
Mortgage Attach
80%+
Title Attach
Source: Information obtained directly from the companies mentioned.
Financial products aimed at home buyers give Power
Buyers their high mortgage attach rates.
Source: Public disclosures and author’s research.
This is in stark contrast to the major iBuyers, who
have struggled to attach mortgage.
Source: Public disclosures and author’s research. iBuyer attach rates based in live markets only.
Zillow is well-below the original goal it set when it
entered the mortgage space in 2018.
Source: Public disclosures and author’s research.
Transaction
Search
Seller
Focus
Buyer
Focus
Easier to attach
mortgage
(70% attach rate)
When it comes to attaching mortgage, it is more
effective to target buyers earlier in the process.
Harder to attach
mortgage
(2% attach rate)
End-to-End Journey Discovery Chat with
On-demand Team
Request a Visit Submit an Offer Process Visibility
Like others, the Power Buyers are deploying
technology to streamline the entire transaction.
Source: Reali.
Including features meant to appeal to home buyers,
like Home Match and room comparisons.
Source: Orchard.
Customer
Empowerment
Agent
Productivity
1-to-1 Customer
Communications
1-to-Many Comms.
with Business Units
Pipeline
Management
Salesforce
Integration
AI-Powered Lead
Scoring
Process
Visibility
On-Demand
Communications
Online Offer
Submission
AI-Powered Price
Predictor
Source: Reali.
The technology focuses on consumer empowerment
and improving agent productivity.
Source: Homeward.
Homeward partners with and empowers agents,
keeping them at the center of the transaction.
Transaction
Search
Seller
Focus
Buyer
Focus
The shifting landscape is causing disruptors and
incumbents to adjust their strategies.
Transaction
Search
Seller
Focus
Buyer
Focus
Zestimate
Zillow Offers
Zillow Home
Loans
Zillow is developing a presence in all parts of the
transaction, on both the buy- and sell-side.
Transaction
Search
Seller
Focus
Buyer
Focus
Traditional and disruptor brokerages remain the
closest to the transaction.
Transaction
Search
Seller
Focus
Buyer
Focus
Compass is investing heavily into its own search
portal, leveraging exclusive listings.
Private
Exclusives
Transaction
Search
Seller
Focus
Buyer
Focus
Realogy, eXp, and other brokers have launched
instant offer programs for customers.
Instant Offers
Transaction
Search
Seller
Focus
Buyer
Focus
While discount broker Homie launched a cash offer
program in July 2021.
Cash Offers
Transaction
Search
Seller
Focus
Buyer
Focus
Progressive independent and smaller brokerages
have launched their own branded programs.
Cash Offers
Buy Before Sell
Instant Offers
Transaction
Search
Seller
Focus
Buyer
Focus
To thrive, the brokerage of the future will need a
presence in all four quadrants.
Cash Offers
Bridge Finance
Buy Before Sell
Instant Offers
Search Portal Value Estimates
Comparing Top
Models
These are some of the largest companies disrupting
the traditional real estate brokerage model.
iBuyer
High-end traditional
brokerage
Discount
brokerage
(plus portal)
Online discount
brokerage
Each occupies a different sweet spot in the market.
Transactions
(2019)
85,000 52,000 70,000 39,000
Listing fee 2.5%–3% 1%–1.5% $1,100 ~7%
Average
Transaction
Sale Price
>$1 million $460,000 $220,000 $240,000
Source: Transaction counts from the REAL Trends 500, Purplebricks’ investor presentations, and public property records.
The fees charged to consumers vary from discount
to premium.
Transactions
(2019)
85,000 52,000 70,000 39,000
Listing fee 2.5%–3% 1%–1.5% $1,100 ~7%
Average
Transaction
Sale Price
>$1 million $460,000 $220,000 $240,000
Traditional Discount Fixed-fee
discount
Premium
And each fills a specific consumer niche, ranging
from luxury to mid-market.
Transactions
(2019)
85,000 52,000 70,000 39,000
Listing fee 2.5%–3% 1%–1.5% $1,100 ~7%
Average
Transaction
Sale Price
>$1 million $460,000 $220,000 $240,000
Luxury Up-market Mid-market Mid-market
Their growth trajectories have also varied widely…
Source: Transaction counts from the REAL Trends 500, Purplebricks’ investor presentations, and public property records.
…some, like Compass, have hockey-sticked, while
others have plateaued at market saturation.
Compass: Hockey stick
Purplebricks: Plateau
Redfin: Slow and steady
Opendoor: Accelerating
Source: Transaction counts from the REAL Trends 500, Purplebricks’ investor presentations, and public property records.
Collectively, Redfin and Compass doubled their
market share to 3 percent of the U.S. market in 2019.
1.5% → 3%
National Market Share (2019)
Much of that growth has been driven by Compass,
which grew exponentially into 2019.
Source: Transaction counts from the REAL Trends 500.
Compass’ growth has been fueled by massive
amounts of venture capital: over $1.5 billion.
Source: Public disclosures.
And it is using that capital to grow market share by
acquiring brokerages and recruiting agents.
Source: Public records and press releases.
Between 2018 and 2019,
Compass’ agent count
increased from roughly
2,000 to 10,000. Of those
8,000 new agents, around
4,200, or 52 percent, came
from acquired brokerages.
Source: Author’s research.
Compass’ strategy is incredibly unprofitable; the
company has lost over $1 billion since 2016.
Source: Company disclosures.
LOSSES
Compass’ strategy appears focused on exclusive
content: listings only found on compass.com
Source: Strategic Analysis: The Top Threat to Real Estate Portals, by Mike DelPrete
This strategy is an effort to derive more power by
becoming a consumer destination.
Compass is turning money into market share, and
market share into market power.
eXp Realty, founded in 2009, is another fast-mover in
the U.S. brokerage space.
eXp’s business model – and growth – is underpinned by
three key pillars:
• High commission splits that are very favorable for agents.
• A robust multi-level marketing (MLM) scheme to
encourage grassroots recruitment efforts.
• An online-only ecosystem, with no physical offices or
branches, resulting in low overhead expenses.
eXp has grown its U.S. market share even faster than
Compass and Redfin.
Source: Transaction counts from the REAL Trends 500.
It is currently the third-largest broker by transaction
count, followed closely by Compass and Redfin.
Source: Transaction counts from the REAL Trends 500.
None of these disruptors are overnight successes; it
has taken years to reach this position in the top 10.
Source: Transaction counts from the REAL Trends 500.
16 years
8 years
11 years
Compass and eXp’s growth is underpinned by agent
recruitment; eXp’s growth is unprecedented.
Source: Transaction counts from the REAL Trends 500.
eXp has very high effective agent commissions,
which have risen over the past year.
Source: Public disclosures.
eXp’s focus is on the mid-market, with a median
price point lower than Compass (luxury) and Redfin.
Source: REAL Trends 500.
While all leaders, each company is achieving success
in its own way – with common trends.
• The biggest models still look and feel like traditional real
estate brokerages; there is little business model
innovation around how they operate.
• The models are still pinned to agents and agent count.
Technology doesn’t sell houses, agents do.
• The biggest disruptor is a step-change in agent recruiting
and compensation. This is the core of Compass’ and
eXp’s growth.
• Growing market share takes time and money. Having
more of one means needing less of the other.
Real Estate
Psychology
Psychology > Technology
A discussion of real estate tech wouldn’t be complete
without highlighting the role of psychology.
In the evolution of the real estate
industry, psychology could play a more
pivotal role than technology.
Loss aversion is the psychological concept when the
pain from a loss outweighs the pleasure from a gain.
It means that humans are inherently risk adverse, and
will avoid taking risks, especially in big transactions.
High Value
Low Value
Low
Frequency
High
Frequency
Transaction types can be plotted on a spectrum that
measures value and frequency.
The cost of a mistake is low with high frequency, low
value transactions. Consumers will take the risk.
High Value
Low Value
Low
Frequency
High
Frequency
The cost of making a mistake is much greater with
high value, low frequency transactions.
High Value
Low Value
Low
Frequency
High
Frequency
Investment banking
Higher education
Purchasing a car
Divorce
The cost of making a mistake is much greater with
high value, low frequency transactions.
High Value
Low Value
Low
Frequency
High
Frequency
With these transactions,
consumers often seek out
expert guidance through the
process.
Transacting real estate is typically the largest, and
least frequent, transaction a consumer will face.
High Value
Low Value
Low
Frequency
High
Frequency
Loss aversion, to minimize the risk of making a
mistake, is why consumers seek out expert guidance.
High Value
Low Value
Low
Frequency
High
Frequency
Real Estate Agents
Generally speaking, it is easier to change consumer
behavior when the pain from a loss is lower.
High Value
Low Value
Low
Frequency
High
Frequency
Harder to disrupt
Easier to disrupt
The loading screen is meant to
illustrate a concept called
artificial waiting. That’s when
an artificial delay is created to
increase the perceived value of
what comes next.
TurboTax’s submission screen takes several minutes
to complete a tax return – an artificial delay.
Similar artificial delays are present in online travel
searches, banks, and online security checks.
Dubbed the ”labor illusion” by Harvard researchers,
perceived value increases with wait time – to a point.
Researchers found that people
generally preferred the delayed
results and considered them more
valuable over instantaneous ones.
Human psychology leads the way in terms of limiting
adoption of new technology.
• Many real estate tech disruptors are focusing on
instantaneous transactions: buy, sell, and finance a
house with the click of a button.
• But if consumers prefer a delay when submitting their
taxes, do they really want an instant home purchase?
• Human psychology suggests that consumers prefer good
things to take time. An instantaneous home transaction
may be a solution in search of a problem.
• An expert advisor to guide consumers through the
process remains critical to transacting real estate.
The Role of Agents
In the U.S., the vast majority of homes are still sold
with an agent.
Source: National Association of Realtors.
New technologies and platforms have failed to have
an impact on the use of real estate agents.
The introduction of technologies that
improve the home search process and
show consumers that middlemen are
unnecessary (or that technology can
replace agents) have failed to have an
impact on the use of agents.
Disruptors
Traditional
Industry
Smart agents are embracing new, disruptive models
and making them their own.
Some independent brokerages are offering the same
suite of disruptive services to customers…
Image Sources: Metrobrokers in Atlanta and 8z in Colorado.
…and positioning themselves as the one-stop-shop
for understanding all buying and selling options.
Image Source: Klaus Team in Arizona.
Real estate is becoming more complex. The role of
an expert advisor has never been more important.
• Agents are acting as unbiased expert advisors, helping
consumers understand the myriad of new buying and
selling options available.
• Agents are the ultimate “offer aggregator,” presenting
offers from multiple companies to homeowners.
• The brokerages and agents that win will be those that
educate and empower consumers to make the choice
that’s right for them.
Real estate agents will remain an important part of
the home buying and selling process.
• Home sellers still want someone to hold their hand. Real
estate agents aren’t going anywhere.
• Even with the advent of technology that could, in theory,
replace agents, consumers still prefer to work with them.
• This is loss aversion at work; consumers want to work
with an agent in order to reduce the chances of a
potentially costly mistake when selling their house.
Key Learnings
Disruption in real estate is being driven by
unprecedented amounts of venture capital.
Source: GCA Advisors.
The influx of new models is creating more ways to
buy and sell – and adding ecosystem complexity.
Source: Nima Wedlake, Thomvest Ventures.
For the most part, growth in new brokerage models
is still very much tied to agent count.
Source: Transaction counts from the REAL Trends 500.
• Technology doesn’t sell
houses, agents do.
• Agents remain crucial,
and central, to the
transaction.
• Competition between
new brokerage models
still revolves around
agent recruiting and
retention.
Many new models are massively unprofitable. These
companies are willing to lose billions to grow.
$1.2+ billion loss
$1+ billion loss
It’s not about the house, it’s about the transaction.
• Many new models are attempting to reach profitability
through a wider ecosystem play, generating revenue
from adjacent transaction services.
• But it’s a difficult path forward, with low attach rates.
Consumer psychology (loss aversion) remains one of
the largest obstacles to mass-market adoption.
High Value
Low Value
Low
Frequency
High
Frequency
Harder to disrupt
Loss Aversion!
Easier to disrupt
The next generation of new brokerage models are
focused on three key areas.
Image Source: Orchard.
1. Employed Agents
(Some, but not all, models)
2. Integrated
Ecosystem
3. Digital Consumer
Experience
Which enable them to capture more of the
transaction, namely mortgage and title.
Source: Information obtained directly from the companies mentioned.
Industry
Average
(Brokers)
Transaction
Search
Seller
Focus
Buyer
Focus
To thrive, brokerages of the future should have a
presence in all four quadrants, from search to close.
Cash Offers
Bridge Finance
Buy Before Sell
Instant Offers
Search Portal Value Estimates
There is much to learn from these global examples.
• The biggest new models are very
well funded and willing to incur
massive losses to build market
share.
• The leaders are using technology
to automate processes and
increase efficiency, not to replace
people.
• The traditional industry isn’t sitting
still: Smart agents and brokers are
competing where they can win.
The industry is moving very slowly, but it’s never
moved this fast.
• These new models have proven traction and growing
consumer demand – but remain a small fraction of the
overall market.
• Change will occur slowly; this is evolution, not revolution.
Changing consumer behavior takes time.
• It’s spreading: Copycat models are popping up in markets
around the world.
• Traction is coming from new models that feature a
smart combination of people and technology.
Mike is a global real estate tech strategist, and a
scholar-in-residence at the University of Colorado
Boulder. He is internationally recognized as an
expert and thought-leader in real estate tech.
His evidence-based analysis is widely read by
global leaders, and he is a sought-after strategy
and new ventures consultant. His research and
insights have featured in the New York Times,
Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, and The
Economist.
About the author: Mike DelPrete
www.mikedp.com Mailing list mike@mikedp.com
I split my time between research & writing, teaching,
and working with select clients.
Start-up
Advisor
I’m leading the University’s new
Real Estate Tech program, one of
the world’s first. Learn more ⟶
I’m a strategy and new ventures
consultant for businesses of all
sizes, with a focus on real estate
portals and disruptive models in
real estate tech. Learn more ⟶
I advise and invest in a select
group of real estate tech start-ups
and growth-stage businesses
around the world. Learn more ⟶
Strategy
Consultant
Copyright © Mike DelPrete

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2021 Emerging Models in Real Estate Report

  • 1. 2 0 2 1 The 2021 Emerging Models in Real Estate Report
  • 2. Introducing The Emerging Models in Real Estate Report I’m fascinated by the opportunity in real estate tech. The process of buying and selling houses is complex and uncertain, with many opportunities for improvement. Smart entrepreneurs and innovative companies around the world are launching new models, fueled by massive amounts of venture capital. In this report, I cover the major trends that are shaping the industry and the major players gaining market share. The scope is global, because we all have a lot to learn from each other, no matter where we live. Mike DelPrete July 2021
  • 3. Table of Contents 1. Overview 2. Disruption in the U.K. 3. The Rise of iBuyers 4. Power Buyers 5. Comparing Top Models 6. Real Estate Psychology 7. The Role of Agents 8. Key Learnings
  • 5. One key question has guided this research. What are the new models gaining traction that are changing the way people buy and sell residential real estate?
  • 6. This report is focused on the fastest moving, biggest trends in residential real estate tech. • The research is a market scan that pulls out facts, highlights insights and draws conclusions. It’s meant to be representative, not comprehensive. • Many examples come from the U.S. market, because it is the epicenter of real estate tech disruption – driven by unprecedented amounts of venture capital. • The scale between the U.S. and other markets is different, but the trends are the same. Disruption in real estate appears to follow similar paths globally.
  • 7. Disruption in real estate is being driven by unprecedented amounts of venture capital. Source: GCA Advisors.
  • 8. Over $35 billion since 2015, with $4.5 billion in just the first three months of 2021. Source: GCA Advisors.
  • 9. That capital is subsidizing the creation of new business models across the transaction spectrum. Source: Nima Wedlake, Thomvest Ventures.
  • 10. Including many focused on new and improved models to buy and sell houses. Source: Nima Wedlake, Thomvest Ventures.
  • 11. Why? The market opportunity is massive, and real estate hasn’t changed in decades. Source: Opendoor and Zillow investor presentations, 2020.
  • 13. One prominent new model is the fixed-fee online agency – born and scaled in the U.K. • Customers pay a low, fixed-fee. • Customers typically pay up-front, regardless of whether the home sells. • Online agencies offer broadly the same services as a traditional agent, with agents in the field, a centralized support operation, and all of it backed by a customer- friendly tech platform.
  • 14. A key part of the customer proposition is saving consumers “thousands” when selling their home. Source: Author’s research, 2018.
  • 15. Note: Assumes £225,000 home price and 1.3% commission. In 2018, fixed-fee online agencies in the U.K. offered to save consumers an average of £2,000.
  • 16. Purplebricks is the largest of the new breed of fixed- fee online agency, based in the U.K. • Founded in 2012, Purplebricks grew to become the #1 estate agency in the U.K. based on number of transactions. • Around 5% market share in the U.K. (~70K houses annually). • Charges an up-front fee of £999 (£1,499 in London). • Has an online platform and service centre to support its local property experts. • Expanded to Australia (2016), the U.S. (2017), and Canada (2018).
  • 17. Purplebricks’ U.K. growth was staggering. The number of listings doubled annually for years. Source: Purplebricks annual reports. Purplebricks’ U.K. Listings
  • 18. But more recently, beginning in 2019, that growth began to slow (all before Covid-19). Source: Purplebricks annual reports. Purplebricks’ U.K. Listings
  • 19. On average, a Purplebricks customer has a home valued in line with the median value of the market. Source: Author’s estimates based on Purplebricks’ FY20 number of instructions, total sales volume, and an 83% sales completion rate. The Purplebricks proposition appeals to the “sweet spot” in the middle of the U.K. market.
  • 20. Similar results were seen when Purplebricks launched in Australia in 2017. Source: Author’s research and public property listings.
  • 21. Financially, the U.K. business reached profitability once the business achieved scale in 2018. Source: Purplebricks annual reports.
  • 22. One secret to Purplebricks’ success? Lower customer acquisition costs as it scaled. Source: Purplebricks annual reports.
  • 23. Purplebricks is just as much an effective marketing company as it is a real estate business. Source: Purplebricks annual reports.
  • 24. During its growth phase, Purplebricks was able to scale revenue without an increase in marketing. Source: Purplebricks annual reports. Purplebricks’ Revenue and Sales & Marketing Growth 2x growth flat
  • 25. Purplebricks is winning The growth of the fixed fee model in the U.K. followed a “winner take most” dynamic. Source: Zoopla and author’s analysis way back in February 2018.
  • 26. Source: Purplebricks annual reports. Which is unsurprising given the fragmented nature of real estate. All online agents offered the same product with little to no differentiation. There were no benefits from network effects. One customer, one sale. Purplebricks was able to dominate the market by outspending its competition.
  • 27. Raising a lot of money doesn’t guarantee success, but it’s impossible to succeed without it. Note: Live listings as of February 2018.
  • 28. The Purplebricks’ growth story to investors was based on international expansion. Australia Canada U.S. 2016 2017 2018
  • 29. Purplebricks’ rising and falling stock price was closely tied to its international expansion. Stock Price
  • 30. Part of the reason the business struggled in the U.S. was incredibly high customer acquisition costs. $15k CAC for $3k in revenue Source: Author’s estimates and calculations in 2018.
  • 31. Purplebricks’ marketing ROI in the U.S. and Australia never matched the efficiency of the U.K. market. Purplebricks’ Global Marketing ROI Source: Author’s estimates and calculations in 2018.
  • 32. Canada is an outlier because Purplebricks acquired an existing, successful business in that market. Purplebricks’ Global Marketing ROI Source: Author’s estimates and calculations in 2018.
  • 33. The Australian operation burned cash for years, never coming close to reaching breakeven. Purplebricks’ Australian Finances Source: Purplebricks annual reports.
  • 34. After several years of investment, massive losses, and limited traction, by 2020 Purplebricks had exited all of its international markets.
  • 35. At the time of Purplebricks’ U.K. launch, the largest traditional agency incumbent was Countrywide. 2016 Company Snapshot • £737M income • £84M EBITDA • ~£900M Market Cap • 991 branches • 11.5k employees • 66k property transactions • ~5% market share Source: Countrywide 2016 annual report, relevant news stories.
  • 36. Purplebricks’ rise coincided with the decimation of Countrywide as a public company. Purplebricks goes public Countrywide’s Stock Price Purplebricks launches -97% Chart: Google Finance.
  • 37. To compete, Countrywide launched its own online offering across its brands with a low, fixed fee.
  • 38. But it suffered from a lack of strategic advantage as a brand extension, rather than as a new fighter brand. By launching a brand extension, Countrywide missed out on the classic benefits of a fighter brand: eliminating competition, protecting the existing premium offering, and opening up new, lower-end markets for the organization. Countrywide’s approach begs the question: Was the offering truly meant to succeed? Source: Traditional vs Tech: How the U.K.’s biggest real estate incumbent is reacting to digital disruption, by Mike DelPrete
  • 39. Countrywide vs. Purplebricks is a cautionary tale of what’s at stake for real estate incumbents vs. disruptors.
  • 40. The Rise of iBuyers
  • 41. iBuyers buy homes directly from consumers, turning the traditional home selling process on its head.
  • 42. The iBuyer movement is led by Opendoor, founded in 2014, and currently the world’s largest iBuyer. • Opendoor buys homes directly from consumers, quickly spruces them up, and resells them on the open market. • By March 2019, Opendoor had raised over $1.3 billion in equity, $2.4 billion in debt, and was valued at close to $4 billion. • In Dec 2020, Opendoor went public at a market cap of $14B. • Opendoor offers a compelling customer proposition focused on speed, certainty, and simplicity.
  • 43. iBuying is being driven by multi-billion dollar organizations, not scrappy start-ups. Source: Public markets July 2021. Offerpad amount based on its upcoming SPAC. $3B projected market cap $29B market cap $9B market cap $6.5B market cap
  • 44. In 2019, iBuyers accounted for nearly 60,000 transactions, or 0.5 percent of the U.S. market. 0.5% National Market Share Includes over 31,000 purchases and 28,000 sales. Source: National public property records.
  • 45. National iBuyer market share doubled in 2019, up from around 0.2 percent in 2018. Source: National public property records.
  • 46. On average, iBuyers purchase homes valued between $250k – $300k, the median U.S. price point. Source: National public property records, author’s research.
  • 47. $8.1+ Billion Value of Homes Purchased in 2019 With over 31k purchases at an average price of $260k, iBuyers bought $8.1+ billion of homes in 2019. Source: National public property records.
  • 48. Due to Covid-19, iBuyer transaction volumes were down significantly – by about half – in 2020. Source: National public property records.
  • 49. In 2018, Opendoor dominated the iBuyer segment with over 70 percent share of the market. 2018 Opendoor 70% Zillow 3% Offerpad 26% Redfin 1% iBuyer Segment Market Share Source: National public property records, author’s estimates.
  • 50. 2018 2019 Opendoor 70% 64% Zillow 3% 18% Offerpad 26% 16% Redfin 1% 2% iBuyer Segment Market Share Zillow’s rapid national expansion shifted the segment materially in 2019. Source: National public property records, author’s estimates.
  • 51. 2018 2019 2020 Opendoor 70% 64% 50% Zillow 3% 18% 26% Offerpad 26% 16% 23% Redfin 1% 2% 1% iBuyer Segment Market Share And in 2020, iBuyer market share changed further, with Zillow and Offerpad making market share gains. Source: National public property records, author’s estimates.
  • 52. Opendoor continues to lead the segment, with twice the volume of its closest competitor in 2020. Source: National public property records, author’s estimates.
  • 53. Overall volumes are down significantly from 2019, due to the negative effects of Covid-19 on iBuying. Source: National public property records, author’s estimates. -59% -21% -24%
  • 54. The iBuyers have a growing national presence, clustered in around two dozen markets. Denver Phoenix Atlanta Dallas Houston Charlotte Raleigh Las Vegas Orlando Tampa Minneapolis San Diego Austin San Antonio Miami Jacksonville Nashville Tucson Portland Sacramento Riverside Los Angeles Salt Lake City Note: Major market centers as of March 2021.
  • 55. The top iBuyer markets, by purchase volume, are Phoenix, Atlanta, Texas, and North Carolina. Denver Phoenix Atlanta Dallas Houston Charlotte Raleigh San Antonio Las Vegas Orlando Tampa Minneapolis Riverside Top iBuyer Markets by Purchase Volume, 2019 www.mikedp.com Source: National public property records.
  • 56. The iBuyers began expanding into the previously untouched Northeast market in early 2021. Source: iBuyers Beginning to Target the Northeast Market, by Mike DelPrete.
  • 57. The iBuyers have three primary sources of revenue. Revenue = Service fee + Price appreciation + Ancillary services The difference between what an iBuyer buys and subsequently resells a house for. The fee charged to the home seller. ~5%+ 5%–10% Note: These are gross revenue numbers, and don’t include costs. Percentages based on actual market data. Title insurance, mortgage, brokerage services, and more. ~2.5% target
  • 58. The top iBuyers operate high gross revenue businesses, with negative profit margins. Opendoor Zillow Offerpad Gross revenue $2.6 billion $1.7 billion $1.1 billion Gross profit $220 million $98 million $88 million Gross margin 8.5% 5.7% 8.2% Contribution margin 3.5% (1.2%) 3.6% Net margin (11.1%) (18.7%) (2.2%) Revenue Comparison: 2020 Includes total value of homes sold Fees + home appreciation Fees + home appreciation After selling & holding costs, and interest After all expenses Source: Public disclosures.
  • 59. (11.1%) (14.6%) Margins are thin. When all expenses are included (direct and indirect), the model is unprofitable. Gross Margin 8.5% Selling Costs Holding Costs Interest Expense Contribution Margin Net Loss (1.1%) (1.1%) (2.8%) 3.5% Opendoor Unit Economics, 2020 Indirect Expenses Source: Opendoor’s S-4 filing and investor presentation. Sales and marketing, salaries, rent, legal, technology, etc.
  • 60. (18.7%) (17.5%) Zillow’s margins are even worse, reflecting the massive upfront investment required. Gross Margin 5.7% Source: Zillow’s public disclosures and filings. Selling Costs Holding Costs Interest Expense Contribution Margin Net Loss (1.2%) (1.3%) (4.5%) (1.2%) Zillow Offers Unit Economics, 2020 Indirect Expenses
  • 61. (2.2%) Offerpad comes closest to profitability, driven by significantly lower overhead expenses. Gross Margin 8.2% Selling Costs Holding Costs Interest Expense Contribution Margin Net Loss (0.5%) (1.5%) (2.9%) 3.3% Offerpad Unit Economics, 2020 Indirect Expenses Source: Offerpad’s S-4 filing and investor presentation. (5.5%)
  • 62. With all expenses included, the major iBuyers are losing tens of thousands of dollars per home. Source: Public filings and investor presentations.
  • 63. The path to iBuyer profitability involves monetizing the entire transaction. • It’s not about the house, it’s about the transaction. • There’s a larger ecosystem play that hinges on being able to monetize adjacencies around the transaction. • For iBuyers, that means mortgage, title, and seller leads on a path to profitability. Source: Opendoor investor presentation.
  • 65. Transaction Search Seller Focus Buyer Focus Portals 2005–2015 Investment and innovation in real estate tech really began with the portals during the last decade. Thought Credit: Propseller research for the framework.
  • 66. Transaction Search Seller Focus Buyer Focus Portals 2005–2015 The focus was on improving the search experience for home buyers.
  • 67. Transaction Search Seller Focus Buyer Focus iBuyers 2016–2019 Portals 2005–2015 The previous few years saw the rise of iBuyers, focused on the sell-side of the transaction.
  • 68. Transaction Search Seller Focus Buyer Focus Power Buyers 2020–2021 iBuyers 2016–2019 Portals 2005–2015 The past year has seen the emergence of Power Buyers, focused on the buy-side of the transaction.
  • 69. Power Buyers empower buyers with products like cash offers, bridge financing, and trade in programs. Image Source: Orchard, Knock, and Homeward.
  • 70. ”Buy before you sell,” or the trade in model, is proving to be popular in the hot market of 2021. You move in and relax We list your old home on market We buy your new home with our cash Old home sells in 120 days or we buy it You purchase new home from us Source: Orchard.
  • 71. Orchard and Homeward saw 150%+ growth in 2020 and over 300%+ growth into 2021. • Overall Power Buyer volumes are in the low thousands each, and growing. • While still relatively small, the growth rates reflect a strong product/market fit. • Growth is accelerating, partially driven by big fundraising rounds in 2020 and 2021. Source: Information obtained directly from the companies mentioned. 2021 estimate based on current run-rate.
  • 72. The major Power Buyer markets overlap the major iBuyer markets. Source: Major markets and states for Orchard, Homeward, Knock, and Flyhomes. Denver Phoenix Atlanta Dallas Houston Charlotte Raleigh Orlando Tampa Minneapolis Austin San Antonio Miami Jacksonville Nashville Tucson Greater D.C. San Diego Los Angeles Portland Boston
  • 73. The Power Buyers are digitally integrating all aspects of the transaction, including mortgage and title. The results are industry-leading attach rates. 70%+ Mortgage Attach 80%+ Title Attach Source: Information obtained directly from the companies mentioned.
  • 74. Financial products aimed at home buyers give Power Buyers their high mortgage attach rates. Source: Public disclosures and author’s research.
  • 75. This is in stark contrast to the major iBuyers, who have struggled to attach mortgage. Source: Public disclosures and author’s research. iBuyer attach rates based in live markets only.
  • 76. Zillow is well-below the original goal it set when it entered the mortgage space in 2018. Source: Public disclosures and author’s research.
  • 77. Transaction Search Seller Focus Buyer Focus Easier to attach mortgage (70% attach rate) When it comes to attaching mortgage, it is more effective to target buyers earlier in the process. Harder to attach mortgage (2% attach rate)
  • 78. End-to-End Journey Discovery Chat with On-demand Team Request a Visit Submit an Offer Process Visibility Like others, the Power Buyers are deploying technology to streamline the entire transaction. Source: Reali.
  • 79. Including features meant to appeal to home buyers, like Home Match and room comparisons. Source: Orchard.
  • 80. Customer Empowerment Agent Productivity 1-to-1 Customer Communications 1-to-Many Comms. with Business Units Pipeline Management Salesforce Integration AI-Powered Lead Scoring Process Visibility On-Demand Communications Online Offer Submission AI-Powered Price Predictor Source: Reali. The technology focuses on consumer empowerment and improving agent productivity.
  • 81. Source: Homeward. Homeward partners with and empowers agents, keeping them at the center of the transaction.
  • 82. Transaction Search Seller Focus Buyer Focus The shifting landscape is causing disruptors and incumbents to adjust their strategies.
  • 83. Transaction Search Seller Focus Buyer Focus Zestimate Zillow Offers Zillow Home Loans Zillow is developing a presence in all parts of the transaction, on both the buy- and sell-side.
  • 84. Transaction Search Seller Focus Buyer Focus Traditional and disruptor brokerages remain the closest to the transaction.
  • 85. Transaction Search Seller Focus Buyer Focus Compass is investing heavily into its own search portal, leveraging exclusive listings. Private Exclusives
  • 86. Transaction Search Seller Focus Buyer Focus Realogy, eXp, and other brokers have launched instant offer programs for customers. Instant Offers
  • 87. Transaction Search Seller Focus Buyer Focus While discount broker Homie launched a cash offer program in July 2021. Cash Offers
  • 88. Transaction Search Seller Focus Buyer Focus Progressive independent and smaller brokerages have launched their own branded programs. Cash Offers Buy Before Sell Instant Offers
  • 89. Transaction Search Seller Focus Buyer Focus To thrive, the brokerage of the future will need a presence in all four quadrants. Cash Offers Bridge Finance Buy Before Sell Instant Offers Search Portal Value Estimates
  • 91. These are some of the largest companies disrupting the traditional real estate brokerage model. iBuyer High-end traditional brokerage Discount brokerage (plus portal) Online discount brokerage
  • 92. Each occupies a different sweet spot in the market. Transactions (2019) 85,000 52,000 70,000 39,000 Listing fee 2.5%–3% 1%–1.5% $1,100 ~7% Average Transaction Sale Price >$1 million $460,000 $220,000 $240,000 Source: Transaction counts from the REAL Trends 500, Purplebricks’ investor presentations, and public property records.
  • 93. The fees charged to consumers vary from discount to premium. Transactions (2019) 85,000 52,000 70,000 39,000 Listing fee 2.5%–3% 1%–1.5% $1,100 ~7% Average Transaction Sale Price >$1 million $460,000 $220,000 $240,000 Traditional Discount Fixed-fee discount Premium
  • 94. And each fills a specific consumer niche, ranging from luxury to mid-market. Transactions (2019) 85,000 52,000 70,000 39,000 Listing fee 2.5%–3% 1%–1.5% $1,100 ~7% Average Transaction Sale Price >$1 million $460,000 $220,000 $240,000 Luxury Up-market Mid-market Mid-market
  • 95. Their growth trajectories have also varied widely… Source: Transaction counts from the REAL Trends 500, Purplebricks’ investor presentations, and public property records.
  • 96. …some, like Compass, have hockey-sticked, while others have plateaued at market saturation. Compass: Hockey stick Purplebricks: Plateau Redfin: Slow and steady Opendoor: Accelerating Source: Transaction counts from the REAL Trends 500, Purplebricks’ investor presentations, and public property records.
  • 97. Collectively, Redfin and Compass doubled their market share to 3 percent of the U.S. market in 2019. 1.5% → 3% National Market Share (2019)
  • 98. Much of that growth has been driven by Compass, which grew exponentially into 2019. Source: Transaction counts from the REAL Trends 500.
  • 99. Compass’ growth has been fueled by massive amounts of venture capital: over $1.5 billion. Source: Public disclosures.
  • 100. And it is using that capital to grow market share by acquiring brokerages and recruiting agents. Source: Public records and press releases.
  • 101. Between 2018 and 2019, Compass’ agent count increased from roughly 2,000 to 10,000. Of those 8,000 new agents, around 4,200, or 52 percent, came from acquired brokerages. Source: Author’s research.
  • 102. Compass’ strategy is incredibly unprofitable; the company has lost over $1 billion since 2016. Source: Company disclosures. LOSSES
  • 103. Compass’ strategy appears focused on exclusive content: listings only found on compass.com Source: Strategic Analysis: The Top Threat to Real Estate Portals, by Mike DelPrete
  • 104. This strategy is an effort to derive more power by becoming a consumer destination. Compass is turning money into market share, and market share into market power.
  • 105. eXp Realty, founded in 2009, is another fast-mover in the U.S. brokerage space. eXp’s business model – and growth – is underpinned by three key pillars: • High commission splits that are very favorable for agents. • A robust multi-level marketing (MLM) scheme to encourage grassroots recruitment efforts. • An online-only ecosystem, with no physical offices or branches, resulting in low overhead expenses.
  • 106. eXp has grown its U.S. market share even faster than Compass and Redfin. Source: Transaction counts from the REAL Trends 500.
  • 107. It is currently the third-largest broker by transaction count, followed closely by Compass and Redfin. Source: Transaction counts from the REAL Trends 500.
  • 108. None of these disruptors are overnight successes; it has taken years to reach this position in the top 10. Source: Transaction counts from the REAL Trends 500. 16 years 8 years 11 years
  • 109. Compass and eXp’s growth is underpinned by agent recruitment; eXp’s growth is unprecedented. Source: Transaction counts from the REAL Trends 500.
  • 110. eXp has very high effective agent commissions, which have risen over the past year. Source: Public disclosures.
  • 111. eXp’s focus is on the mid-market, with a median price point lower than Compass (luxury) and Redfin. Source: REAL Trends 500.
  • 112. While all leaders, each company is achieving success in its own way – with common trends. • The biggest models still look and feel like traditional real estate brokerages; there is little business model innovation around how they operate. • The models are still pinned to agents and agent count. Technology doesn’t sell houses, agents do. • The biggest disruptor is a step-change in agent recruiting and compensation. This is the core of Compass’ and eXp’s growth. • Growing market share takes time and money. Having more of one means needing less of the other.
  • 114. Psychology > Technology A discussion of real estate tech wouldn’t be complete without highlighting the role of psychology. In the evolution of the real estate industry, psychology could play a more pivotal role than technology.
  • 115. Loss aversion is the psychological concept when the pain from a loss outweighs the pleasure from a gain. It means that humans are inherently risk adverse, and will avoid taking risks, especially in big transactions.
  • 116. High Value Low Value Low Frequency High Frequency Transaction types can be plotted on a spectrum that measures value and frequency.
  • 117. The cost of a mistake is low with high frequency, low value transactions. Consumers will take the risk. High Value Low Value Low Frequency High Frequency
  • 118. The cost of making a mistake is much greater with high value, low frequency transactions. High Value Low Value Low Frequency High Frequency Investment banking Higher education Purchasing a car Divorce
  • 119. The cost of making a mistake is much greater with high value, low frequency transactions. High Value Low Value Low Frequency High Frequency With these transactions, consumers often seek out expert guidance through the process.
  • 120. Transacting real estate is typically the largest, and least frequent, transaction a consumer will face. High Value Low Value Low Frequency High Frequency
  • 121. Loss aversion, to minimize the risk of making a mistake, is why consumers seek out expert guidance. High Value Low Value Low Frequency High Frequency Real Estate Agents
  • 122. Generally speaking, it is easier to change consumer behavior when the pain from a loss is lower. High Value Low Value Low Frequency High Frequency Harder to disrupt Easier to disrupt
  • 123.
  • 124. The loading screen is meant to illustrate a concept called artificial waiting. That’s when an artificial delay is created to increase the perceived value of what comes next.
  • 125. TurboTax’s submission screen takes several minutes to complete a tax return – an artificial delay. Similar artificial delays are present in online travel searches, banks, and online security checks.
  • 126. Dubbed the ”labor illusion” by Harvard researchers, perceived value increases with wait time – to a point.
  • 127. Researchers found that people generally preferred the delayed results and considered them more valuable over instantaneous ones.
  • 128. Human psychology leads the way in terms of limiting adoption of new technology. • Many real estate tech disruptors are focusing on instantaneous transactions: buy, sell, and finance a house with the click of a button. • But if consumers prefer a delay when submitting their taxes, do they really want an instant home purchase? • Human psychology suggests that consumers prefer good things to take time. An instantaneous home transaction may be a solution in search of a problem. • An expert advisor to guide consumers through the process remains critical to transacting real estate.
  • 129. The Role of Agents
  • 130. In the U.S., the vast majority of homes are still sold with an agent. Source: National Association of Realtors.
  • 131. New technologies and platforms have failed to have an impact on the use of real estate agents. The introduction of technologies that improve the home search process and show consumers that middlemen are unnecessary (or that technology can replace agents) have failed to have an impact on the use of agents.
  • 132. Disruptors Traditional Industry Smart agents are embracing new, disruptive models and making them their own.
  • 133. Some independent brokerages are offering the same suite of disruptive services to customers… Image Sources: Metrobrokers in Atlanta and 8z in Colorado.
  • 134. …and positioning themselves as the one-stop-shop for understanding all buying and selling options. Image Source: Klaus Team in Arizona.
  • 135. Real estate is becoming more complex. The role of an expert advisor has never been more important. • Agents are acting as unbiased expert advisors, helping consumers understand the myriad of new buying and selling options available. • Agents are the ultimate “offer aggregator,” presenting offers from multiple companies to homeowners. • The brokerages and agents that win will be those that educate and empower consumers to make the choice that’s right for them.
  • 136. Real estate agents will remain an important part of the home buying and selling process. • Home sellers still want someone to hold their hand. Real estate agents aren’t going anywhere. • Even with the advent of technology that could, in theory, replace agents, consumers still prefer to work with them. • This is loss aversion at work; consumers want to work with an agent in order to reduce the chances of a potentially costly mistake when selling their house.
  • 138. Disruption in real estate is being driven by unprecedented amounts of venture capital. Source: GCA Advisors.
  • 139. The influx of new models is creating more ways to buy and sell – and adding ecosystem complexity. Source: Nima Wedlake, Thomvest Ventures.
  • 140. For the most part, growth in new brokerage models is still very much tied to agent count. Source: Transaction counts from the REAL Trends 500. • Technology doesn’t sell houses, agents do. • Agents remain crucial, and central, to the transaction. • Competition between new brokerage models still revolves around agent recruiting and retention.
  • 141. Many new models are massively unprofitable. These companies are willing to lose billions to grow. $1.2+ billion loss $1+ billion loss
  • 142. It’s not about the house, it’s about the transaction. • Many new models are attempting to reach profitability through a wider ecosystem play, generating revenue from adjacent transaction services. • But it’s a difficult path forward, with low attach rates.
  • 143. Consumer psychology (loss aversion) remains one of the largest obstacles to mass-market adoption. High Value Low Value Low Frequency High Frequency Harder to disrupt Loss Aversion! Easier to disrupt
  • 144. The next generation of new brokerage models are focused on three key areas. Image Source: Orchard. 1. Employed Agents (Some, but not all, models) 2. Integrated Ecosystem 3. Digital Consumer Experience
  • 145. Which enable them to capture more of the transaction, namely mortgage and title. Source: Information obtained directly from the companies mentioned. Industry Average (Brokers)
  • 146. Transaction Search Seller Focus Buyer Focus To thrive, brokerages of the future should have a presence in all four quadrants, from search to close. Cash Offers Bridge Finance Buy Before Sell Instant Offers Search Portal Value Estimates
  • 147. There is much to learn from these global examples. • The biggest new models are very well funded and willing to incur massive losses to build market share. • The leaders are using technology to automate processes and increase efficiency, not to replace people. • The traditional industry isn’t sitting still: Smart agents and brokers are competing where they can win.
  • 148. The industry is moving very slowly, but it’s never moved this fast. • These new models have proven traction and growing consumer demand – but remain a small fraction of the overall market. • Change will occur slowly; this is evolution, not revolution. Changing consumer behavior takes time. • It’s spreading: Copycat models are popping up in markets around the world. • Traction is coming from new models that feature a smart combination of people and technology.
  • 149.
  • 150. Mike is a global real estate tech strategist, and a scholar-in-residence at the University of Colorado Boulder. He is internationally recognized as an expert and thought-leader in real estate tech. His evidence-based analysis is widely read by global leaders, and he is a sought-after strategy and new ventures consultant. His research and insights have featured in the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, and The Economist. About the author: Mike DelPrete www.mikedp.com Mailing list mike@mikedp.com
  • 151. I split my time between research & writing, teaching, and working with select clients. Start-up Advisor I’m leading the University’s new Real Estate Tech program, one of the world’s first. Learn more ⟶ I’m a strategy and new ventures consultant for businesses of all sizes, with a focus on real estate portals and disruptive models in real estate tech. Learn more ⟶ I advise and invest in a select group of real estate tech start-ups and growth-stage businesses around the world. Learn more ⟶ Strategy Consultant
  • 152. Copyright © Mike DelPrete