2. SOLAR GRAND PLAN
2
Visionary plan for solar power to replace coal and gas
Solar can provide 100% of US electricity
Solar can drive an all electric car fleet
Cut carbon emissions by 80% by 2050
Ken Zweibel of GWU author of Scientific American, Jan
2008 article
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7. DESERT ENERGY
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4% of the US deserts could meet US electricity needs
Desert Area Sq mi Solar Desert Area % of GWh/yr
Served collectors Desert
US SW US 20,000 500,000 4% 3,800,000
Sahara Europe 20,000 3,500,000 0.50% 3,300,000
Gobi China 15,000 500,000 3% 2,500,000
Kalahari Africa 3,000 360,000 1% 480,000
Australian Australia 1,000 600,000 0.30% 220,000
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12. EXISTING AND FUTURE
INFRASTRUCTURE
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160,000 miles high voltage electric transmission
lines
300,000 miles of gas pipelines
50,000 miles in US highway system
Estimated 50,000 miles of new transmission lines
would be needed for solar from SW to all of US
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13. COST OF IMPLEMENTATION IN US
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Cents/kwh Annual cost Capital cost $/watt
15 cents $600 billion $6 trillion $9
10 cents $400 billion $4 trillion $6
5 cents $200 billion $2 trillion $3
Assumptions:
3,800,000 gwh / yr annual US consumption
10% cost of capital
15% conversion efficiency from sun to electricity
Assumes cost of parabolic trough solar generation
Assumes cost of molten salt storage
Includes 50,000 miles of DC transmission lines CONFIDENTIAL
14. COST BENEFITS
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New electric grid
$365 billion / yr on oil expenditures (2/3 imported)
= $250 billion / yr on oil imports
$50 billion / yr on coal
$100 billion / yr on natural gas
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15. CUMULATIVE ENERGY SUPPLY
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Investment of $26 trillion, or over $1 trillion/year, is needed, but the credit
squeeze could delay spending, potentially setting up a supply-crunch once
the economy recovers
16. SUM SOLAR GRAND PLAN
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Bold but feasible
In the past 50 years, we have built
300 coal fired plants
300 gas fired plants
100 nuclear plants
100 large hydro
We can build 3000 new solar plants
Now, an example of one such proposed plant
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17. EXAMPLE:
HUALAPAI VALLEY SOLAR PROJECT
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Largest planned solar project in the world
340 MW with storage or equivalent of 500 MW
without storage
Obama’s stimulus package could finance the entire
$2.1 billion project
Proven technology: Parabolic Trough
Experienced developer with track record
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18. TECHNOLOGY OF SOLAR TROUGHS
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Most mature of utility-scale technologies
Longest track record (since 1984 in USA)
Projects – operational
Solar Energy Generating Systems (354 MW, CA, 1984-90)
Nevada Solar One (64 MW, 2007)
Projects – under construction
Andasol 1-7 (50 MW each, Spain, first one online 2009)
Solnova 1-5 (50 MW each, Spain)
Extresol 1-3 (50 MW each, Spain)
10 other projects under construction in Spain, total 500 MW
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30. CAPEX
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Total $2.1 billion, including the following:
$1 billion in the solar collector field of mirrors, tubes, pipes
$200 m in molten salt storage
$120 m in heat transfer fluid
$200 m in steam turbine generator and power block
$75 m in balance of plant
$ balance in EPC fees, contingency, land, interest during
construction, owners costs, etc
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31. EPC CONTRACT – POTENTIAL TERMS
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Engineering, Procurement and Construction contract
Key terms: performance, price & schedule
Guarantees performance of entire plant
Guarantees the completion date
Fixed price, with possible commodity escalators
Contingency for commodity price increases
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32. POTENTIAL TEAM – CONSTRUCTION
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Possible constructors include:
Abengoa (Spain)
Acciona (Spain)
ACS / Cobra Group (Spain)
MAN Solar Millennium (Germany)
Black and Veatch (USA)
Lauren Engineers and Constructors (USA)
Fluor (USA)
SNC Lavalin (USA)
URS Washington Division (USA)
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33. ENVIRONMENTAL PERMITS
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Permits Required
Federal NEPA process / EIS
Arizona Corp Commission license
Air Permit
Aquifer Protection Permit
Mohave County Zone change and special use permit
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34. POWER PURCHASE AGREEMENT (PPA) –
POTENTIAL TERMS
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Take-or-pay contract
Production of peak power – most desirable
Thermal storage of 6-8 hours
As available
95% capacity factor for summer peak
25-30 year term
Power price to be determined in RFP competitive process
Meets the utility’s renewable energy requirements
Renewable Energy Credits (RECs) go to utility
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35. POTENTIAL TEAM – POWER PURCHASERS
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14 possible customers
APS or Arizona Public Service
LADWP or LA Dept Water & Power
PGE or Pacific Gas & Electric
Nevada Power (formerly Sierra Pacific Power)
SCE or Southern California Edison
SDGE or San Diego Gas & Electric
SRP or Salt River Project
TEP or Tucson Electric Power (Unisource)
Southern California Public Power Agency (SCPPA)
Northern California Public Power Authority
Sacramento Municipal Utility District (SMUD)
Western Area Power Administration (WAPA )
Bonneville Power Administration (BPA)
Large industrial users or energy trading companies
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36. FINANCING - EQUITY
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30% solar ITC
Refundable as a cash grant by Treasury
Majority of equity for project
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37. FINANCING - DEBT
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DOE loan guarantee program for renewables
$10 billion authorized under 2005 Energy Policy Act
$60 billion added by Obama/Congress
Up to 80% of project cost
Federal Financing Bank
30 years at 3.5%
Project Applied on Feb 26, 2009
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38. DEVELOPMENT BUDGET – PER SITE
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$ 1,500,000 – Land options (24 months)
$ 1,500,000 – Engineering, design (18 months)
$ 1,000,000 – Environmental and permitting (18 months)
$ 750,000 – PPA deposit, paid to the utility (12 months)
$ 600,000 – Site prep, mapping, test and monitoring (6 months)
$ 300,000 – Project management (24 months)
$ 250,000 – Electrical studies (6 months)
$ 250,000 – Legal (12 months)
$ 6,150,000 per site (slightly less for 2nd and 3rd sites)
Note: This does not include an estimated $ 15 million for PPA security deposit. This
deposit, paid to the utility, can vary depending on the utility and negotiated PPA
terms.
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39. PROJECT SCHEDULE
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Development Period: 2009-10 (1.5-2 years)
Design and engineer facility - 3Q 2009
Secure all environmental approvals and permits - 2Q 2010
Negotiate PPA - 1Q 2010
Negotiate EPC - 2Q 2010
Financing Period: 2010 (0.5-1 year)
Organize lenders and equity investors - 2Q 2010
Construction Period: 2010-13 (2.5-3 years)
Install foundations and framing
Assembly and installation of solar collectors
Install steam cycle and power block
Operations period 25 years, starting in 2013
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40. CLOSING
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Largest planned solar plant in the world
340 mw solar trough project in the Mohave by 2013
$2 billion financing from stimulus money
Solar industry can build 100 such plants in next 5-10 yrs
Must bring cost down by 75%
3000 solar plants in next 10-20 yrs
10,000 solar plants globally in the next 20-40 yrs
Small fraction of the Sahara, Gobi, Kalahari and Mohave deserts
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41. CONTACT INFORMATION
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Mitchell Dong
Mohave Sun Power LLC
________________________________
85 Hamilton Street
Cambridge, MA 02139
Office: +1 617.864.3770
Fax: +1 617.864.2701
mldong@pgix.com
Skype address: mldong141
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