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地下水の流れ方の推定
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Miyako Yuno
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変動の時間的なズレから流れを推定する
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地下水の流れ方の推定
1.
2.
武甲山の地下水について • 武甲山の中には地下水が流れている • 地下水は水位計を用いて計測している
3.
水位計とは
4.
水位計のデータで何をしたいか • 地下水の内部構造についてデータを用いて調 べたい • 水位変化の時間的なズレに着目した
5.
水位変化の時間的なズレとは • 上流で水の水位が増えれば、数時間後に下 流で水位が増えると予想できる • よって上流と下流では水位の変化に時間的 なズレが存在するはず
6.
どうやって水位変化の時間的ズレを 見つけるか • データをずらしながら相関を取っていく • A地点の水位とB地点の水位のデータがある •
A地点の水位を1時間ずつずらして、B地点と 相関を取っていく
7.
具体的にどうやるかについて -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 データA データB 相関係数 : -0.54 なにもずらさないで相関係数を取ると・・・
8.
Bを1時間右にずらしてみる -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 データA データB 相関係数 : 0.17
9.
Bを2時間右にずらしてみる 相関係数 : 1.0 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 1
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 データA データB
10.
Bを3時間右にずらしてみる -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 データA データB 相関係数 : 0.14
11.
ずらした時間と相関係数の関係 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 0 1 2
3 相関係数 ずらした時間 Bを2時間あとにずらしたときに相関係数が最大
12.
2時間あとにずらしたときに相関最大になるということは、 Aが先に起こってその2時間後にBの変化が 起こった、と言えそう -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 0 1 2
3 相関係数 ずらした時間
13.
実際のデータ • 水位1 〜
7地点 • データ数は1時間刻み でおおよそ 5000 ~ 30000
14.
水位No.7と水位No.6の水位
15.
これを変化率(5時間)に変換して計算
16.
-0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 -20 -10 0
10 20 相関係数 ずらした時間 No7とNo6の関係 結果は、 →10時間ずらしたところで最大
17.
No2とNo3では -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 -20 -10 0
10 20 相関係数 ずらした時間 No2とNo3の関係 →どれだけずらしても相関なし
18.
これをすべての組み合わせで行う
19.
20.
変化率は特異点が多いので 上下2%のデータを削除する
21.
結果:矢印が増えたり数字が変わった がおおまかな水の流れは変化なし
22.
まとめ • データから水のおおまかな流れを視覚化する ことができた • 観測点を増やすなどして地下水の流れをより 理解することができる •
これをもとにより効率的な水抜き工事をして、 鉱山のすべりを抑えることができると思われ る。
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