This document discusses how understanding probability is key to successful sports betting. It defines probability and how it relates to odds, explains how to calculate probability and implied probability, and how these concepts can be used to determine if a bet offers good value. The objective is to provide punters with the skills to assess betting lines and ensure they only wager on bets with positive expected returns.

1. SPORTSBETTIN
G TIPS
UNDERSTANDING
PROBABILITY

2. This introduction to probability
is brought to you by
MobileBetting.kiwi
In this presentation you’ll learn
how probability affects the bets
you place and why it’s a key factor
in sports betting.

3. Objective
To understand how probability comes into play in
sports betting.
To provide a basic understanding of calculating
probability.
To ensure MobileBetting.kiwi punters have the best
chance of placing solid bets.

4. Definition of Probability
 Probability measures how likely an event is to
happen and it can be quantified by a number
between 0 and 100.
 0 indicates that there is absolutely no way an
event will occur.
 100% shows that’s its an absolute certainty.

5. Applying Probability to Sports
Bets
 When checking bookmaker odds its essential
that you are able to determine which bets
offer good value.
 By applying probability and determining the
likelihood of an outcome, you can work out
whether a bet is worthwhile.

6. Probability vs. Odds
 Probability and Odds are closely linked and at
MobileBetting.kiwi only sports books with
consistently good odds are recommended.
 Odds generally refer to the payout ratio of any bet
and the chance of an event occurring.
 Probability is a measure of how likely an event is
to occur on a numerical scale.

7. Calculating Probability
 It may take a little bit of practice to get the hang of
calculating probability but it’s a skill that the pros
at MobileBetting.kiwi highly recommend acquiring.
 You can crunch the numbers yourself by looking
stats, past results and trends or you can make
use of a prediction service.
 A probability estimate will give you a clear
indication as to whether a bet has value when
compared to the bookmaker’s odds.

8. Implied Probability Explained
 Implied probability is a crucial concept and can be
applied at all the sports books recommended by
MobileBetting.kiwi.
 Implied probability converts traditional odds into
percentages, taking into account the bookmakers
edge and resulting in a calculation that could be
called the “true odds” for any event.
 Implied probability can be applied to live betting,
individual game lines, propositions and futures
markets.

9. MobileBetting.kiwi Betting Tip
 If you think your winning chances are higher
than the implied probability, your bet is good
value.
 If you feel the implied probability is higher
than the chance of winning, then steer clear of
betting.

10. Expected Return Explained
 Expected return should yield the same results
as implied probabilities and is another way of
measuring bet value.
 Expected return measures the expected net
profit from any bet.
 Net profit is worked out by subtracting your
stake from your winnings to see what your
real return was.

11. Calculating Expected Value
 MobileBetting.kiwi provides punters with
several ways to work out whether their bets
are worthwhile- all using probability to
calculate results.
 Expected Value (EV) shows how much you
can expect to win on average per bet.
Calculated based on placing bets with the
same odds repeatedly, EV works out an
average of winning results.

12. By understanding probability,
how to calculate it and how to
apply it to the odds offered by
online sports books you can
improve your success rate.

13. Thanks for watching
MobileBetting.kiwi wishes you good
luck and successful punting!