Determinants of health, dimensions of health, positive health and spectrum of...
Mindtree 1QFY18
1. Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Limited (hereinafter “ARSSBL”) is a full-service brokerage and equities-research firm and the views expressed therein are solely of
ARSSBL and not of the companies which have been covered in the Research Report. This report is intended for the sole use of the Recipient. Disclosures and analyst
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Anand Rathi Research India Equities
Technology
Company Update
India I Equities
Key financials (YE Mar) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18e FY19e
Sales (` m) 35,461 46,730 52,364 53,128 57,075
Net profit (` m) 5,322 5,523 4,160 4,695 5,459
EPS (`) 31.5 31.6 24.8 28.0 32.5
Growth (%) 22.6 0.2 -21.6 12.8 16.3
PE (x) 16.1 16.0 20.4 18.1 15.6
PBV (x) 4.0 3.7 3.3 3.0 2.7
RoE (%) 27.6 24.3 16.7 17.3 18.3
RoCE (%) 23.6 21.1 15.1 12.9 14.8
Dividend yield (%) 1.7 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.5
Net debt/equity (x) -0.4 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5
Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research
Mohit Jain
Research Analyst
+9122 6626 6531
mohitjain@rathi.com
Shobit Singhal
Research Associate
+9122 6626 6511
shobitsinghal@rathi.com
`
Rating: Hold
Target Price: `520
Share Price: `507
Key data MTCL IN / MINT.BO
52-week high / low `621/ `399
Sensex / Nifty 31955 / 9900
3-m average volume $5.5m
Market cap `85bn/$1325.1m
Shares outstanding 168m
Shareholding pattern (%) Jun'17 Mar'17 Dec'16
Promoters 13.6 13.7 13.7
- of which, Pledged - - -
Free float 86.4 86.3 86.3
- Foreign institutions 39.9 39.2 39.0
- Domestic institutions 6.9 7.1 7.2
- Public 39.6 40.1 40.1
20 July 2017
Mindtree
Acquisitions dragging performance; downgrade to Hold.
Mindtree had a weak Q1 with both revenue (US$200m, +2.3%qoq) and
margins (11.1%, -309bps qoq) missing expectations, primarily due to a
~US$2.5m revenue shortfall created by Bluefin and Magnet360.
Margins were further impacted by visa costs, cost overruns, and
currency. Growth outlook was cut to high single digit (from low double
digit) growth in FY18 and margin outlook was discontinued. The
positives were strong volumes (+3.7%qoq), better deal wins (+8%yoy
TTM), and higher onshore proportion (+250bpsqoq). We revise FY18
estimates sharply and hope for a recovery in FY19, factoring in
positives above. Revise target to `520 (from `535) at 16x FY19 EPS.
One challenge – Acquired entities and associated volatility. Mindtree
faced twin challenges of drag from acquisitions and stagnation in top
accounts. Both Bluefin (US$7.3m, -19%qoq) and Magnet360 (US$6.5m, -
13%qoq) witnessed sharp decline in revenues and recovery is taking time. The
other challenge, weakness in top accounts (top 10 are 41% of Rev) is getting
offset by growth in other accounts (+3%qoq in 1QFY18, +2.5%qoq in
4QFY17). In terms of margins, there is 240bps impact of the acquisitions on
consolidated margins, including US$1m cost overrun in Bluefin.
All is not lost, scope for margin recovery in FY18. This is second
consecutive quarter of utilization improvement (+150bps in last 6M, now at
73.8%) and it can act as an important lever for margins (especially when
growth slows). Management also alluded to higher offshore proportion of
work in matured digital deals as another lever. Lastly, Mindtree is now a
US$800m company (quarterly annualized basis) which puts it in a strong
position to extract scale benefits.
Valuation. We are revising FY18 and FY19 estimates downwards by ~11%
and ~4% respectively, factoring in current exchange rate (`64.5/$) and
building in margin recovery in FY19. Our target price at `520, is based on 16x
FY19e. Risk. Sharp rupee appreciation.
Relative price performance
Source: Bloomberg
MTCL
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Estimates revision (%) FY18e FY19e
Sales($) (1.5) (2.0)
EBITDA (21.2) (10.6)
PAT (11.0) (4.2)
Change in Estimates Target Reco
4. 20 July 2017 Mindtree – Acquisitions dragging performance; downgrade to Hold.
Anand Rathi Research 4
Conference call highlights
Business
Revenue growth was impacted owing to volatility among few clients,
slower ramp up of the deals, and ramp-down of few projects in Bluefin
and Magnet 360.
EBITDA margins impacted due to visa cost (-150 bps), currency
headwinds (-90 bps) and losses in Bluefin and Magnet 360 (-70bps).
Bluefin quarterly revenue run rate stood at USD 7.3m, while Magnet
360 revenue run rate stood at USD 6.5m. Both the entitiesare expected
to face volatility in revenues. Within the two, Magnet360 is expected to
recover faster as it is only facing delays in project closures. Bluefin is
facing execution challenges – including cost overruns in fixed rice
project.
Ex subsidiaries and currency movements, Mindtree expects to improve
its EBITDA margins in FY18.
Out of 2 large deals won in Q3 FY 17 one customer is progressing as
per plan and has started contributing to revenues in this quarter. But
the other customer is a quarter behind schedule due to evolving
regulatory environment in the US.
70% of employees will receive salary hike in Q2.Average salary hike in
offshore would be 5.5%, while onshore it would be 1.8%. This will be
absorbed in 2Q as visa expenses will not be there.
There is a churn in top accounts and hence, top 2-10 accounts look
stagnant. However, with new clients coming in the top 10 category,
company believes that growth will return in top accounts in FY18.
The Company entered into a payment resolution agreement with
the erstwhile shareholders of one of the subsidiaries.
Consequently, `374m representing liability no longer required
and written back has been recognised under other income.
Business Outlook
Company has revised revenue growth guidance for FY18 to high single
digit from low double digit and expects organic business to perform
well.
Margin guidance was discontinued for the consolidated entity due to
extreme volatility in the two subsidiaries. (7% of Revenues)
7. 20 July 2017 Mindtree – Acquisitions dragging performance; downgrade to Hold.
Anand Rathi Research 7
Valuations
The stock trades at 15.6x FY19e EPS of`32.4. This, we think, is fair, given
that Mindtree is one of the better mid-sized IT companies with the
potential to touch $1bn by 2020. Also, it enjoys a strong balance sheet and
has strong free-cash-flow generation.
It is currently exhibiting volatility on account of weaknesses in its top
clients but the deal wins in the last six months suggest its ability to compete
in a tough environment and return to industry-level growth.
Also, it has margin levers in the business, primarily the employee-pyramid
correction and utilisation to absorb headwinds in margins. At present,
acquisitions are dragging down the performance but are expected to
recover in FY18.
Fig 15 – Change in estimates
FY18 FY19
New Old Chg % New Old Chg %
Revenues ($m) 824 837 (1.5) 885 903 (2.0)
Revenues (`m) 53,128 56,052 (5.2) 57,075 60,510 (5.7)
EBITDA (`m) 6,655 8,441 (21.2) 8,201 9,172 (10.6)
EBITDA Margin % 12.5% 15.1% -253 bps 14.4% 15.2% -79 bps
EBIT (`m) 4,828 6,530 (26.1) 6,204 7,082 (12.4)
EBIT Margin % 9.1% 11.7% -256 bps 10.9% 11.7% -83 bps
PBT 6,217 7,090 (12.3) 7,335 7,744 (5.3)
Net profit 4,695 5,273 (11.0) 5,459 5,698 (4.2)
Source: Anand Rathi Research
We expect Mindtree to recoup in FY18 some of the margin erosion it
suffered in 1QFY18, leading to FY18 margins trending toward 12.5%. We
value it based on a target PE of 16x FY19e EPS, similar to other
companies in Indian IT, which we like due to their quality management,
business and corporate governance (Persistent, Cyient).
Fig 16 – PE band
Source: Bloomberg, Anand Rathi Research
Risks
Sharp rupee appreciation.
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PERatio(1yearforward)
8. Appendix
Analyst Certification
The views expressed in this Research Report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the
compensation of the research analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the research
analyst(s) in this report. The research analysts are bound by stringent internal regulations and also legal and statutory requirements of the Securities and Exchange
Board of India (hereinafter “SEBI”) and the analysts’ compensation are completely delinked from all the other companies and/or entities of Anand Rathi, and have
no bearing whatsoever on any recommendation that they have given in the Research Report.
Important Disclosures on subject companies
Rating and Target Price History (as of 19 July 2017)
Date Rating
TP
(`)
Share
Price (`)
1 11-Feb-14 Buy 463 365
2 01-Apr-14 Buy 438 339
3 04-Jun-14 Buy 450 390
4 12-Jun-14 Buy 475 432
5 04-Jul-14 Hold 475 426
6 18-Jul-14 Buy 500 441
7 20-Aug-14 Sell 500 508
8 01-Oct-14 Sell 575 589
9 16-Oct-14 Hold 585 518
10 05-Jan-15 Sell 640 636
11 20-Jan-15 Sell 680 706
12 09-Apr-15 Sell 655 733
13 17-Jul-15 Sell 640 615
14 19-Jan-16 Sell 690 735
15 19-Apr-16 Sell 710 731
16 19-Jul-16 Hold 650 614
17 06-Sep-16 Buy 630 525
18 24-Oct-16 Hold 550 479
19 20-Jan-17 Hold 535 485
20 21-Apr-17 Buy 535 443
Anand Rathi Ratings Definitions
Analysts’ ratings and the corresponding expected returns take into account our definitions of Large Caps (>US$1bn) and Mid/Small Caps (<US$1bn) as described
in the Ratings Table below:
Ratings Guide (12 months)
Buy Hold Sell
Large Caps (>US$1bn) >15% 5-15% <5%
Mid/Small Caps (<US$1bn) >25% 5-25% <5%
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