This document discusses key aspects of developing an effective investment methodology. It emphasizes that investing requires discipline, precision and a well-thought out process rather than speculation. The document outlines a 4-step investment process: 1) respecting capital and instruments, 2) determining primary variables, 3) detailing an investment strategy, and 4) implementing the strategy. It also discusses various analytical tools, investment mechanisms, techniques, and the pros and cons of professional vs. self-guided investing.
1. MoneycationPublished by Moneycation™
Newsletter: August 12, 2014
Volume 2, Issue 6
The importance of investment methodology
"The individual investor should act consistently as an investor
and not as a speculator." - Benjamin Graham
Informed and wise investing decisions do not typically seek to dazzle or outperform, but rather
pursue and attain a calculated financial objective. This is because, as Benjamin Graham states,
investing is distinct from speculation, which is more like fortune telling and less verifiable. If
investors seek to make money instead of losing it, they would do themselves well to begin by
deeply embedding and following a few non-trivial key principles within their investment strategy.
This newsletter seeks to apply the tenets of investment wisdom in to a review and evaluation of
investment process and methodology.
The importance of process is sometimes underemphasized when it comes to investor education and
training. Oftentimes, a focus on quantitative analysis, asset evaluation and basic investment
approaches take center stage. This however, leaves financial heuristics for the birds; in other
words, the behavioral approach to investing is just as important as the factual analysis of financial
data.
Financial heuristics are quite possibly more important in the pre-to-early stages of investment
methodology and can determine the outcome of investing decisions before transactions even take
place. For example, not using an investment strategy, but focusing on tactical financial allocations
may prove successful for day traders or near-term investors in the short run, but it is an incomplete
and even misguided to start investing without a well thought out plan of action if if not a fully
comprehensive financial strategy.
Investing process
Beginning with a disciplined, focused and organized investment methodology does wonders for
eliminating emotion, greed and illogical thought from financial decision making. Doing so is more
essential than non-essential, and therefore impacts investing results both tangibly and intangibly.
As the following diagram of analysis process denotes, developing investment prospects and
forecasts is based on accurate information and reasoned thought. Even if intuition has some
validity to it, when it comes to investing money, that insight translates to speculation, which as has
been noted, is not the same as investing.
2. Step 1: Respect capital and financial instruments
Investing is generally not a game, it is an aspect of financial planning that requires discipline and
precision and has little or no room for nonsense such as brazen overconfidence or illogical
expectations. Thinking of capital as being more like a judge in a courtroom than a criminal on a
street is prudent because it instills a sense of value in to the actions that follow. Without that sense
of value, mishandling or implementing cavalier and faulty transactions is more likely. Thus, a good
first step when investing money is to respect the money.
Step 2: Determine primary variables
An efficient investment process takes as much as usefully possible in to account without obsessing
over quantitative minutia. In other words, it determines what variables carry the most influence on
investment performance, then narrows in on secondary and tertiary factors. For example, the
macro-economic environment and the largest influencers within that environment are like the
investing climate. If economic policy is loose, then it is more likely, but not absolutely probable to
be more seasonable for bullish investing. Taking careful stock of how much macro-economic
factors will influence investment decisions in the near, mid and long term is a good analytical
starting point.
Step 3: Detail investment strategy
Without an investment strategy, financial decisions risk being misguided, under-optimized and
become vulnerable to carelessness. Minimizing opportunity cost and risk, and maximizing yield
whether it be in the form of capital gains, dividends or interest yields is the end game.Not all
investment strategies must be the same; what is important in a strategy is a defining of objectives,
reduction of risk and determination of investment horizon. However, all the following are also very
relevant if not a requirement in a functional investment strategy.
• Define entry and exit points
• Identify objectives and risk tolerance
• Research investment mechanisms and instruments
• Factually confirm legality, authenticity and potential
• Assess broad-based financial variables
3. • Evaluate financial fundamentals and technicals
• Calculate/determine ROI probability
• Forecast performance goals
• Review risks and analyze hazards
• Re-evaluate and test investment plan
Step 4: Implement investment strategy
Investment strategy supports investment process or acts as a leg for that method to stand on. How
well an investment strategy is carried out is therefore, just as important as how effective an
investment process is. For instance, accurate use of financial analysis to evaluate potential asset
allocations increases forecast accuracy and helps reduce risk probability. If carried out carefully as
individual sub-steps, each element of the investment strategy facilitates overall performance of the
investment process.
Allocation of capital
Capital allocation or where the money goes is limited, but not necessarily inadequate, if
approached from a traditional investment perspective. Moreover, with the vast array of financial
investments that are available, there is good reason to think risk and yield can be improved upon or
optimized better. For instance, investment advice often talks about bonds being a hedge for stocks.
While this is true, it tends to be a large scale money management approach where risk
management, fund objectives and liability take a priority over nimbleness and investment agility.
Small retail investors have the advantage of being able to make informed independent decisions.
A big part of investment diversification is asset allocation. Asset allocation itself can be as
sophisticated or as generalized as one chooses. For example, the sample asset allocation table
below demonstrates a well diversified placement of assets. Moreover, the table illustrates how
capital can be invested across a range of assets and financial instruments within those asset classes.
Sample diversification of asset allocation
Equity Funds Bonds Alternatives
High Risk, Low
Yield
Delisted stocks Bearish funds in a
bull market
Near default
national bonds
Livestock
Med. Risk, med.
yield
Blue Chips International bond
funds
Commodity
linked bonds
Real estate
investment trusts
High Risk,
High Yield
Pink sheets Leveraged ETFs Junk bonds Derivatives, and
artwork
Low Risk, Low
Yield
Utilities U.S. bond funds U.S. bonds Money market,
CDs
Variable Mid-cap Index funds Investment grade
bonds
Peer-to-peer
loans, private
equity
Other Dividend stock Closed-end funds Convertible bonds Insurance annuity
4. The pie chart that follows breaks down a common form of asset diversification. Within the equity
asset class, there are numerous options to choose from, but the actual performance of each is more
likely to depend on the riskiness of that asset class than the individual performance of each equity
position. In other words, investing in any stock is risky in comparison to something like an
exchange traded international bond fund.
More eclectic approaches to investing go beyond the traditional confines. For example,
standardized shares that are within highly systematized investing mechanisms such as stock
exchanges neglect to optimize portfolio performance in a way that improves return-on-investment
while simultaneously lowering risk. Some prefer to believe stocks and bonds are as good as
investing gets, but just below the surface swim a wide array of financial instruments with lower
demand and less exposure, but with significantly higher potential as well as ability to yield ROI.
5. How precise an investment decision is helps assess cost and value, but how well targeted an asset
allocation is ultimately has more strategic relevance on the financial outcome of that choice.
Ideally, a well developed investment strategy is exacting enough to plan periodic benchmarks such
as projected yield range, reinvestment rate and capital gains objectives, but also flexible enough to
be re-balanced and adjusted to meet changing financial objectives.
Financial metrics
Just as using the right tools for a plumbing or electrical job is more efficient, practical and ideal,
implementing the right financial analysis for financial goals and investment products makes sense.
But how does one know which financial analysis tools are best for each specific investment? This
identification is part of step 2 of the aforementioned investment process and involves identifying
primary variables. For example, the pros of using financial formulas such as the Black-Scholes
Model, Capital Asset Pricing Model and other financial measurements such as ratio multiples and
key fundamental statistics vary depending on investment objectives, accuracy and type. For
example, a fund investor would not really benefit from using a Black-Scholes formula that is used
for quantifying stock option values unless those funds utilize stock derivatives.
Essentially, the more important measurements are the ones that determine the most relevant and
influential aspects of investment performance. For example, market capitalization informs
investors how much equity has been invested in a company and provides a useful gauge about a
company's size within an industry. The following financial analysis methods and tools are some of
the more commonly used and applicable ones, and are therefore more likely to have relevance in
the investment process. Each individual investor and investment project is unique and will most
likely benefit from customized case-by-case analysis:
Fundamental analysis
Financial fundamentals include quantitative data from things like corporate financial statements,
cost-benefit analysis of projects and financial transaction opportunities such as those within
derivatives trading. Fundamental analysis often takes a business' financial information and cross
references it against other internal and external data to see if it falls below or rises above average
benchmarks etc. In other words, fundamental financial analysis focuses on the internal financial
activity of an organization and not the perception of value via measurement of market behavior via
price movements as is used with technical analysis.
Ratio analysis
Ratio analysis is a form of fundamental analysis, and as anyone familiar with finance knows, ratios
are useful for comparing different numbers via proportion. Ratios are helpful across a wide range
of investment scenarios because they can be applied to many numbers in a broad, but helpful way.
However, knowing how to interpret the output value of ratios is just as necessary to effective
financial analysis as understanding which ratio to use in each scenario.
To illustrate ratio analysis, when banks invest money in to mortgage loans, they use a debt-to-
income ratio among other metrics because it assists with determining borrower capacity to pay. As
useful as this ratio is, it does not measure other key variables such as job security, creditworthiness
6. and solvency, thus ratio analysis alone is limited or insubstantial when thoroughly evaluating
investments. Although different ratios or ratio multiples can be used to account for this limitation,
they still do not account for more variable and qualitative factors such as market trends, investor
psychology and business cycle.
Technical analysis
Technical analysis is sometimes frowned upon by more quantitative types because of its lack of
basis in fixed financial realities such as earnings, revenue growth and capitalization. However,
technical analysis has merit in its own right because just as accounting based measurements are
themselves based on a fluid and ever-changing commercial environment, technical analysis uses
formulas based on the same fluctuating commerce, but through asset prices rather than accounting
fundamentals. This is apparent in the flow chart below:
Statistical analysis
Statistical analysis includes data used in both fundamental and technical analysis. Moreover, since
statistical analysis also applies to areas of business and financial analysis such as marketing
research, it stands alone as its own category. Since the techniques used in statistical analysis are a
discipline in and of themselves, and are sometimes mutually exclusive or different from methods
used in fundamental and technical analysis, statistical analysis has substantial scope in its use as an
evaluative mechanism.
Statistics such as correlation, standard deviation from the mean and variables that determine
statistical accuracy such as the P-Value and R² originate from statistical analysis. Investors do not
necessarily have to do their own statistical calculations and data gathering to evaluate a potential
7. investment as oftentimes, especially with more common investments such as public equity,
statistical data is widely available.
Qualitative analysis
Qualitative analysis is a more intuitive form of evaluation, but does not ignore logical and
numerical data in its assessment. For example, the evaluation of a company assets using fair value
or the estimation of value of intangible assets such as goodwill almost invariably involves some
element of qualitative evaluation. Furthermore, when the absence of clear numerical data pertains
to an asset, company project or strategic decision, then an assessment using qualitative factors is
often used. SWOT analysis, which takes variables including corporate strengths and weaknesses in
to account, is a form of qualitative analysis. Avoiding erroneous qualitative reasoning is also
important when evaluating investments. According to Zero Hedge, cognitive bias, gambler's
fallacy, probability neglect and herd bias are all incorrect qualitative metrics Identifying these and
other false investment thought models is also a part of risk assessment.
Risk assessment
Risk assessment is sometimes overlooked in the investment process because investors think that
due diligence or research of financial instruments includes some clarity about how much risk those
financial instrument have. With any investment methodology, regulatory quirks, procedural
quagmires and market uncertainties rest just below transactions' surface as though waiting to
undermine all an investor's accurate and focused, but possibly misconstrued financial decisions. In
other words, risk assessment should be considered a distinct set of financial metrics used
independently of other financial analysis tools. Examples of risk metrics include the following:
• Volatility metrics: ex. Volatility ratio
• Statistical calculations ex. Delta
• Technical indicators ex. Declining price momentum
• Fundamental indicators ex. Short interest
• Qualitative findings ex. Prevailing market heuristics
Developing an evaluative model that methodically makes use of multiple quantitative metrics is
helpful in developing financial discernment. However, being aware of fallacious models of
thinking is just as important. For example, knowing what to invest in is often assisted by financial
analysis. However, over time, this leads way to an investment intuition that should be relied upon a
little more than speculative interest as it based on investing experience and know how, and not
necessarily public opinion, external financial analysis or financial marketing. Once a full and
thorough evaluation of financial products has taken place, a look in to the investing mechanism
behind financial instruments is also a good idea.
Investment mechanisms
Investing in financial instruments such as exchange traded funds, corporate bonds and over-the-
counter financial products or contracts occur within a framework or investment mechanism. For
instance, the stock market is an investment mechanism as is a stock options exchange,
commodities exchange and foreign exchange. There is often a separate mechanism for each
8. instrument with exceptions such exchange traded funds, which are traded in the stock market.
Investment mechanisms also exist at the governmental or regulatory level as evident with the U.S.
Federal Reserve Board's open market operations and the European Stability Mechanism.
Moreover, both of these financial mechanisms serve a broader purpose within financial markets,
specifically economic stability. However, in the case of financial exchanges, the purpose is to
market make or generate a liquid market within which individual and institutional investors can
easily implement financial transactions.
In terms of individual investment, numerous investment mechanisms exist and include the
following:
• Auctions ex. GSA auction
• Commodities futures exchanges ex. Chicago Board of Trade
• Foreign exchanges ex. International currency exchange
• Stock markets ex. New York Stock Exchange
• Deferred compensation pension plans ex. 401(K)
• Peer-to-peer lending networks ex. Prosper
• Private equity and crowd funding networks ex. Second market
• Stock options exchanges ex. Boston Options Exchange
• Carbon credit exchanges ex. Carbon Trade Exchange
• Bonds ex. Treasury Direct
Investment techniques
In addition to investment mechanisms are investment techniques; these are a collection of well-
practiced transaction methods that are thought to have a higher probability of success than less
planned or guided transactions. For instance, during the course of a market cycle such as a bull to
bear market changes, established trading techniques seek to take advantage of asset prices as they
swing up and down or remain relatively flat. Furthermore, investors that use technical analysis
identify price entry points and exit points based on things like the velocity and volume of asset
transactions in addition to price resistance levels. Below are examples of investment methods and
trading techniques that can also be used for longer-term investment decisions in applicable
financial markets.
• Swing trading ex. Volume investing
• Momentum trading ex. Trend investing
• Carry trading ex. Long-term currency carry trade
• Arbitrage ex. LEAPS dividend arbitrage
• Hedging ex. Negative beta investing
• Spread betting ex. Long-term spread betting
• Vulture investing ex. Tax-lien investing
• Income investing ex. Dividend reinvestment plans
Each investment mechanism serves a different purpose and often trades or sells specific financial
instruments. Not all investment mechanisms are exchanges; moreover, automobile, real estate and
9. collectible auctions utilize a different method of selling assets. In each case, a highly specific set of
rules and capital requirements have the effect of a market entry barrier. In addition, fulfillment of
these requirements does not necessarily guarantee success via participation due to the competitive
nature of each investment system.
Professional vs. self-guided investing
There is no reason why employees and consumers cannot benefit from both professional money
management and self-guided investing. By taking the time to be at least partially aware of how
financial planning works has inherent or embedded benefits for employees. For instance, managed
401(K)s are exposed to numerous potential fees, surcharges and expenses, but the upside is that
experienced money managers are quite possibly more likely to meet minimal return-on-investment
criteria than naïve and inexperienced investors seeking to make money from unprotected stock
option writing. This is not to say all self-guided investors are naïve, but it is to say regulatory
oversight and stricter trading rules are not a requirement when investing for oneself and this creates
the potential for overconfidence and unforeseen financial pitfalls.
Financial instruments
Choosing the right financial instruments to invest in is an important part of an investment
methodology. This is because the type of financial instrument invested in impacts risk and yield in
addition to the net worth and financial liquidity of the investor. Financial instruments include a
wide range of assets. However, simply knowing what the different asset classes are, and
understanding how capital is allocated among various assets is insufficient for a thorough
investment strategy to be carried out. Moreover, financial instruments are generally not chosen in
and of themselves, but rather are bought with the intention of meeting investment strategy
objectives.
Investor goals are a key factor in determining what the most suitable investment assets are. To
illustrate, a risk averse investor who is familiar with financial markets may be more likely to
participate in self-guided, but cautious financial instruments than a young investor in the foreign
exchange market seeking to capitalize on the effect of economic conditions on currency spreads.
Each particular asset has its own merits and drawbacks that are ideally considered, researched and
analyzed by investors seeking to fulfill their financial goals. Below are profiles and pros and cons
of different types of financial instruments:
Currency pairs
U.S. foreign currency exchanges are not subject to all the same legal regulations as exchanges such
as the commodities futures platforms. For this reason, it is wise to first consider how much
oversight a particular financial instrument has in terms of its trading mechanism before deciding to
jump in with both feet. Furthermore, according to Stephen A. Green CPA of Forbes magazine,
integrating risk management such as hedging is not as easily accomplished with forex trading.
“American forex traders are being forced to trade with no more than 50:1 leverage on the
major currencies (20:1 on minors), FIFO (no hedging rule) and without any form of money
protection. Because leverage with currency futures is not far off 50:1 (30:1 on the CME, for
10. example), hedging may be easier with futures, and futures brokers must segregate assets for
some protection.”
For those investors seeking low fee, 24 hr access to a financial market with the potential to
leverage their investment, forex trading may present an opportunity. However, due to the
volatility risk, lack of centralized trading and large institutional investors' utilization of
technology to quickly take advantage of and influence prices, putting all one's financial eggs in
this basket may be considered riskier than average.
Exchange traded funds
Exchange traded funds offer a wealth of opportunity in an easy to access way via discount
brokerage services. Investors can diversify, hedge and access otherwise off limit assets via
exchange traded funds at a lower cost than mutual funds. A risk associated with some ETFs is
that they may be leveraged to the market. For example, if an ETF has a 2:1 ratio with the
market, then for every dollar lost in a non-leveraged ETF two dollars are lost via the leveraged
ETF. Carefully researching the particular assets held within an ETF can make a big difference
on the security's financial outcome within certain time frames. For instance, a leveraged inverse
index ETF offers high opportunity cost, and potential for vast capital loss in a bull market,
especially when one's investment horizon is no longer than the extent of the bull market.
Peer-to-peer loans
Peer-to-peer lending is the direct lending of money between people rather than via financial
institutions.Peer-to-peer lending networks allow investors to check the credit worthiness of
potential borrowers before investing money in to a loan. Moreover, investors have the flexibility to
choose the amount they lend and at what interest rate giving them substantial control over the
transaction. Disadvantages of this kind of lending include lack of regulation, no guarantee of
return-on-investment or original capital and no federal insurance protection. These are substantial
risks that can be mitigated via prudent and well measured lending. For example, an “A” credit
rating borrower with P2P track record seeking a small loan is less likely to default than a “C” credit
rated borrower, with not P2P history and who is seeking a large loan. Even though a higher yield
may be obtained with the latter loan, the risk is significantly higher.
Mutual funds
Mutual funds come in a variety of forms with various fee structures. Generally, mutual fund
expenses, whether they be front loaded or closed-end funds, are higher than ETFs and stock
transactions. In other words, a financial drawback of mutual funds are unnecessary management
expenses. Moreover, when mutual funds are invested in via pension plans, additional
administration fees exhume even more value from savers employment efforts. Investment costs eat
away at yield or return on investment, sometimes to the point where then net financial result is
equal to or worse than an over-the-counter financial instrument such as an index fund. If a mutual
fund underperforms an index after costs, then the reason to choose this method of financial
planning is less justified due to the ease with which a retail investor could outperform results with
just a little financial thought or guidance.
11. Commodity futures contracts
Commodities are raw materials such as agricultural grains and precious metals. They are traded via
future delivery contracts or futures through organizations such as the Chicago Mercantile
Exchange using trading platforms. Some brokerage firms include these transaction mechanisms
with their account services allowing individual investors to buy and sell in the commodities futures
market. This market is very different to the stock market and involves margin, a form of leveraged
capital, which increases risk. In light of this a low percentage of one's investment portfolio is cited
as being prudent by The Street:
“For an "average" investor, Roe recommends an investment of 3%-10% commodities, which
will help reduce overall volatility of a portfolio. And since volatility is how most money
managers identify risk, lower overall volatility means less risk.”
According to the book “Trading Futures for a Living”, the risk associated with commodities futures
can be reduced via hedged trading positions such as the synthetic long position, a combination of
contracts that forecasts price movement in two directions. The use of e-mini futures contracts is
another way to lower the risk of trading commodities futures, but investors would be wise to
carefully acclimate, study and understand the commodities market and trading mechanisms before
making this a large venue for investing.
Bonds
Bond investing offers a wide range of fixed income opportunities with low to high risk depending
on the specific bond. For investors seeking to level their investment risk while still obtaining a
return on investment, bonds are a suitable choice if they are well selected. Bonds can be invested in
directly via government platforms such as Treasury Direct, or via brokerage service providers.
Bond investing differs from bond trading where the price of the bond takes more immediate
importance and incorporates opportunity cost, present value, economic forecasting and yield. Bond
yields differ based on the credit rating of the issuer and the interest rate environment that is
affected by monetary policy.
Some corporate bonds and international bonds offer substantially higher yields than U.S. bonds for
a proportionally minimal increase in risk. In other words, the higher rate more than offsets the
increase in investment risk with some bonds. Bonds can also be invested in via exchange traded
funds and mutual funds, and also come in a variety of forms such as commodity linked bonds. A
benefit of bond ETFs is they pay dividends, oftentimes for substantially lower risk than dividend
paying stock. This helps investors refine investment strategy in a way that simultaneously lowers
risk, increases yield and allows income investing. Examples of dividend paying bond ETFs include
the Vanguard Total International Bond ETF and the PIMCO Total International Bond ETF.
Real Estate Investment Trusts
Real estate investment trusts are financial instruments that pool the capital of multiple investors in
order to purchase income producing real estate at a larger scale. REITS as they are also known, are
traded on public stock exchanges such as the New York Stock Exchange and are required to pay
90% of their earnings to investors in the form of dividends. This dividend requirement makes
12. REITs particularly suited to income investors looking to diversify across a range of financial
instruments. However, the disadvantages of REITs include a higher dividend tax than normal
qualified corporate dividends, and exposure to both the equity market and real estate market. In a
bearish economy, REITs have the advantage of producing consistent income, but may incur
unrealized capital losses with market downturns. However, for long-term investors, looking to
boost retirement savings without too much concern about short to medium term market volatility,
REITs present and interesting financial opportunity.
Corporate shares
Corporate shares are a well known, diverse and easily accessible financial instrument to invest in.
They are traded via stock exchanges that are accessible through brokerage firm accounts. Private
equity can also be invested in via exchanges such as Second Market, directly from non-public
corporate deals or via crowd funding venues such as the Startup Stock Exchange. Private equity
investment is often higher risk than well established public equity stock, especially when the
private businesses invested in are start ups.
Thousands of publicly traded corporations have shares in the stock market that include newer and
higher risk business with less capital or capitalization and larger, more well established companies
with higher capital. Companies that are unable to meet major stock exchange listing requirements
are traded via the over-the-counter market in the form of pink sheets. These are higher risk and are
sometimes referred to as penny stocks, but are also available to investors via brokerage accounts.
Stock has the potential to move up and down in price substantially, may pay dividends and varies
in risk depending on the particular company, market environment and economic conditions. Stock
are typically invested in when diversifying assets and can themselves be diversified across
industries. In the case of initial public offerings or IPOs, a favorable price may be obtained prior to
trading on the secondary market or stock exchange.
Stock option contracts
Stock option contracts are a derivative financial instrument thats underlying asset is stock. They
differ from employee stock options and warrants, both of which allow an individual to purchase
stock at a specific price for a set amount of time. These are more suitable for less risk averse
novice and advanced investors because of their complexity, leverage and risk. Stock option
investing involves several relevant pricing calculations alongside a position of 100:1 per contract.
In other words, every stock option contract typically allows the investor to by 100 shares for much
less upfront cost. This affords greater reward potential, but oftentimes, greater loss possibility as
well. A very clear knowledge of how these contracts work and a deep understanding of market
dynamics is very helpful when investing via stock options.
Conclusion
Applying investment wisdom never loses sight of changing market and economic conditions when
it comes to finding ways to make money grow. Seeking out investment products that have the
highest probability of meeting individual investment strategy objectives benefits from an
evaluative self-designed or pre-established financial model that carefully assesses each step of the
investment process. Product comparisons, financial analysis, business cycles and economic