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Solar power plant (41MWp): Bulgarian renewable energy market study
Simeon Ventsislavov Arnaudov1
, Byung-chul Park2
, Gyung-sam Kim3
, Kyung-sam Kim4
, Mihaela Apostol5
,
Rofat Math6
, Young-sang Cho7
Abstract
Green economic growth became slogan of thousands public and private activities,
nevertheless there are arguments for switching to low-carbon, high-efficiency energy systems
disregard enormous investment cost. Innovative energy technologies are able to reduce
carbone emissions in aim to limit or avoid climate change directs the public debate. However
renewable energy source reduced dependence on imported energy, suspension of conflicts
over energy resources, and the increasing price of fossil fuels also are motivate actions.
Nonetheless, the potential price and difficulty of doing the transition to a new energy system
have brought forted essential opposition from fortified economic interests and consumers
equally. In this paper we investigate whether and how photovoltaic power plants as case of
renewable energy growing market as Bulgaria do, could become an economic occasion rather
than a precious burden. Could a photovoltaic energy capacity induce net economic growth
rather than social pay off burden? Analyzing foreign (Korean) direct investment as
photovoltaic power plant case study as example of some successful or unsuccessful practices
of rapidly growing domestic renewable market. Our aim is this paper to be useful to public or
private energy communities in supporting them with professional renewable domestic market
anatomy.
Keywords: photovoltaic power plant, feed-in tariff, renewable energy regulation, Bulgaria
1
PhD Candidate, ITPP/TEMEP, Seoul National University (IT Senior Expert at Ministry of education, youth and
science, Republic of Bulgaria)
2
Senior manager, Korea South-East Power, Republic of Korea
3
General manager, Overseas business team, New business development department, Korea Southern Power,
republic of Korea
4
Senior manager, Korea Southern Power, Republic of Korea
5
PhD candidate, ITPP/TEMEP, Seoul National University (Project consultant, Ministry of communication and
information society)
6
Master Candidate, IEPP/TEMEP, Seoul National University (Planning officer, Ministry of industry, mines and
energy, Kingdom of Cambodia)
7
Assistant professor, Yonsei University, Republic of Korea
1
1 Introduction
1.1 Legal and regulatory framework
Like member of The European Union, Bulgaria as state follow Directive 2009/28/EC, where
in year of 2020 16% of total consumed electricity must be from renewable source.
Particularly in Bulgaria the legal and regulatory framework is leaded by Ministry of economy,
energy and tourism (MEET), which conduct the energy policy pursuant Energy law. The
ministry is in account of all energy policy, and providing transparent, stable and reliable
framework for domestic and foreign direct investors, existed power plant owners, market
operators, electricity distributors, and sub supporting government agencies. Market structure
is showed on figure 1.
The national regulator authority for energy is recognized in The State Energy and Water
Regulatory Commission (SEWRC). The State agent is established by the Energy law as
specialized government agent which regulates all activities in energy, water supply and
sewerage sector.
Under EU legislation, the operators of the transmission networks for gas and electricity need
to be separated and made independent from undertaking with generation and supply activities.
This process of renewable energy sector is more advanced and market players need to have
certification of the Electricity System Operator (ESO) before SERWC8
.
8
EU report march 2013; www.mi.government.bg/en
2
Figure 1: Legal, regulatory and market structure of electricity market in Bulgaria9
9
Ministry of economy, energy and tourism, Republic of Bulgaria; www.mi.government.bg
Renewable Energy Power plants
(under Feed-in Tariffs)
Coal Independent Power
Producers
State-owned Energy Suppliers
(nuclear, coal, gas)
NEK: single buyer; aggregator;
large hydropower generator;
supplier of last resort &
transmission company
System operator (owned
by NEK): organize the
balancing model
High-voltage
customers
Energo Pro
EVN
CEZ
Generation Transmission Distribution
Co-generation supplier
Purchased and paid for by NEK under Energy
Purchased and paid for by NEK under Energy
Law
Purchased and paid for by NEK under
Purchased and paid for by NEK under Energy
Distribution entities collect on behalf of NEK
Regulated electricity prices through
annual tariff orders
15%
15%
~58%
~12%
3
1.2 National energy market structure
Bulgaria’s share of renewable energy in final energy mix reached approximately 15% 10
(figure 2) following the target of 16% consumption required by Directive 2009/28/EC.
Currently, Bulgaria renewable energy capacity has 850MW installed capacity of wind, 1040
MW capacity of photovoltaic and 3100 MW capacity of hydro (large and small) power plant
(3). Other installed RES as BIO are negligible (around 29MW[3]). Total installed capacity of
the Bulgarian electricity system is a bit less than 14 000 MW, where renewable power plant
account 35.5% of it. Furthermore, during year of 2012 peak of electricity demand were 7,444
MW, and minimum 2600MW. Comparing total capacity of RES reserve with domestic
market peak and minimum, it is obvious to conclude that the part of RES among all electric
capacity is high. However, have to claim that there is opportunity Bulgaria to share its own
RES capacity with other potentially having lack of RES EU members in the beginning of
2020. However the energy regulator has to keep in mind this positive news that the annul
nuclear power and thermal power plants can operate 7,000 hours/year, while wind and solar
farms can operate about 1,000 hours/year.
Implementing legislation for Feed-in tariff scheme to support RES was recognized from
investors as main driving force of sharp growing renewable energy sector. One more, the
regulator annually have rights to adjust the feed-in tariffs on 1st
July each year gives chance
to many photovoltaic company to sign fortunate 20 year take-off contract. After rapid
expansion of solar power plants in 2012, regulator in aim to cool investor ambitions reduce
the feed-in tariffs respectively with 50%. This government campaign was recognized from
society as only way to safeguard the public interest of low price electricity consumption with
0.08€/ kWh. Another investor interest frizzing step was done on September 2012.The GRID
access fee have been introduced for renewable power plants as well, which reduce their
revenue by 10% to 39% depending on the type of renewable technology and date of feed-in
tariff signed contract. Finally the RES subserve accounts 7% in the final customer price for
bought household and liberalized market in 2013.
10
World bank assessment 27th
May 2013; www.mi.government.bg/en
4
Figure 2: Generation structure in 201211
(TWh)
According to “Finding and recommendation” of European commission in May 2013 after
resigning of Bulgarian government, shows in practice how the existing facilities of renewable
energy are much larger than necessary in year 2013 still far and away from pending
requirements Directive 2009/28/EC. The report announced that the government instability
followed by regulator intervention led to the temporary situation most of the RES plants to be
forcibly stopped or restricted to work. The limitations do not apply to hydro power plants,
especially (2013 Spring season) when the dams are full and cogeneration facilities of district
heating are needed in Urban area (used for supply central heating system to public buildings
and private householders). Other finding is price calculation of energy mix (nuclear; thermal;
photovoltaic; hydro; wind power) complexity. The price of energy from the picture 3 we can
see that it varies from $28.62 MWh to $479.93 MWh (08 June 2013 exchange rate: $1 = BGN 1,478),
while the price at which the National Electricity Company (NEC) sells energy distribution
companies and in turn consumers is $53.57 MWh. 12
European Commission report monitor
the energy surpluses, and call for greater transparency in the energy sector, which appeals to
government to open the door and the Electricity System Operator (ESO) began to publish
information in real time at what point how many and which power operate facilities in the
country13
. It can be monitor online by stating that the published data are operational.
11
Ministry of economy, energy and tourism, Republic of Bulgaria; www.mi.government.bg
12
Ministry of economy, energy and tourism; Republic of Bulgaria; www.mi.government.bg
13
Electricity system operator: www.tso.bg/default.aspx/page-707/bg
15% Renewable energy
12% Long term contracted agr. TPP
35% Nuclear power plant
23% Thermal power plant
15% Steam thermal power plant
15%
15% 12%
35%
23%
5
Figure 3: Power plant contracted price in USD/MWh (Source: MEET, Republic of Bulgaria8
)
6
1.3. Renewable energy in Bulgaria
Definition14
of renewable energy claim that RES is energy that comes from resources which
are continually replenished such as sunlight, wind, rain, tides, waves and geothermal heat.
Importance of renewable energy is in reducing possible climate change and minimizing
global warming concerns, covered with high oil prices, and increasing government subsidies,
are driving increasing renewable energy legislation, incentives and commercialization.
Economic growth through increasing usage of RES meets strong social impact. RES usually
rely to innovation technologies, according to specific natural resources of Bulgaria, some of
those technologies are customized to the geographical location of the country. All engineering
solutions, scares of natural resources, government regulation, and profit maximization
increase amount of direct investment in creating brand new renewable power plant. It is
understandable if investor is private agent return of investment shortage is the main company
goal. In other hand level of electricity price has strong social impact. In case of Bulgaria, in
middle of Feb 2013 government resign under pressure of social street movement against
increased electricity bills in sudden.
Bulgarian government adopted "Access to sustainable and effective energy resources"
measures suggested by the EC. Follow pending EC regulation in year 2020 Bulgarian energy
market have to consume renewable energy in minimum of 16% out of total produced
electricity. According to EC report findings Bulgaria is going to reach this level in the end of
2013.
Research objectives are to study Korean FDI Solar Power Plant in Bulgaria. To analyze
renewable market situation, will be conduct company behavior of foreign direct investment
companies (special project companies): “RES technology” Ltd and “ASM investicii” Ltd. It
will be monitored company reaction induced from government market interventions.
Successful and unsuccessful practices of both companies will be presented as well. In
analyzing FDI in renewable sector will be study the degree of collaboration with domestic
energy expertise (in view of academic and other domestic companies who are providing
energy or engineer solutions).
14
European commission http://ec.europa.eu/energy/renewables/index_en.htm
7
2 Context
2.1 Price of electricity
In this study we figure out two types of price: feed in tariff and consumer price. Price of
electricity15
is summation of power supply (base price) power distribution price; supplements
price (for usage of green energy).
The price of electricity in the market with different sources of electricity by various PA is
formed by the combination of various contracts, operation costs and allowances for green
energy, while electricity price has strong social significance. According to the latest World
Bank report on Bulgarian energy market (May 2013), Bulgarian citizens are energy poor. It is
meaning the citizens are spending more than 10% of their income buying energy services
(electricity supply; others).
Price of feed-in tariffs [USD $/MWh] (Source: ministry of energy, economic and tourism) is
shown in table 1.
Table 1: Feed-in tariff agreement by RES8
15
Bulgarian Photovoltaic Association www.bpva.org
Renewable energy company
Capacity
(MWp)
Feed-in tariff
(USD/MWh)
Type of
RES
ASM BG Investicii S.A. 21 $ 472.93 solar
Wind force BG Ltd 10 $ 365.35 solar
ZBE Partners S.A. 50 $ 365.35 solar
BCI Cherganovo Ltd 29 $ 365.35 solar
Helios project S.A. 25 $ 365.35 solar
RES technology S.A. 20 $ 365.35 solar
Ecosolar Ltd 15 $ 365.35 solar
Company for energy development Ltd 14 $ 365.65 solar
Ecoenergy solar Ltd 10 $ 365.65 solar
E.V.T – Electra Volt Trade S.A. 10 $ 365.35 solar
8
By National Energy law regulation all photovoltaic power plants contract long term 20 years
purchase power agreement, also each year on 1st
of July the regulator set up new feed-in tariff
for the new comers. It is mean one time signed PPA is stays till the end of the contract. On
year 2012 with aim to protect energy market and to limited rapid growth of photovoltaic
investment, regulator decreases the feed-in tariff approximately with 50%. Even though down
slope of feed-in tariff last year (after 1st
July 2012) the amount of connected solar capacity to
national GRID was 721MW.
That time the only reaction of regulator was to decrease the take-off price of all new
renewable PPA contracts.
2.2 Energy export
Usually, as was written above the important things in the energy sector in Bulgaria are
happening around the 1 July, when the energy regulator, which plays a decisive role in this
sector decides on electricity prices and quantities to be sold on the regulated and free markets.
So even before the decision of the regulator last year to be taken, traders of electricity warned
that exports from Bulgaria will be blocked. The reason cited was the increase in the price of
Dubovo energy Ltd 10 $ 365.35 solar
Mondy Stamboliiski S.A. 10 $ 166.44 BIO
BCI Kazanluk 1,2,8,9,10 25 $ 160.35 solar
Vetrokom Ltd: VEP Kontakt Consult 23 $ 129.22 solar
EVN-Kavarna Ltd 16 $ 129.22 solar
A and S Geo energy Ltd. 156 $ 127.19 solar
Eolika Bulgaria S.A. 60 $ 127.19 solar
Vetrokom Ltd: VEP Vetrkom 50 $ 127.19 wind
Kaliakra Wind power S.A. 35 $ 127.19 wind
Haos invest-1 S.A. 16 $ 100.81 wind
Sofiiska voda S.A. 3 $ 81.86 BIO
Energo-pro S.A. 103 $ 75.78 Hydro
BAD Granitoid S.A. 23 $ 75.78 Hydro
Litex Hydro S.A. 6 $ 75.78 Hydro
Currency exchange rate (8th
May 2013) 1 USD= 1.478 BGN
9
transmission, which is paid for each megawatt hour of electricity exported from the country
and which in July 2012 was increased from $ 15.56 to $ 23.21 per MWh, an increase of
74.72%. Hardly the problem with this fee would be so great if it was applied in all other
countries. At present, however, charge transfer electricity export only in Romania and Greece,
but is significantly lower than the Bulgarian. This naturally led to the non-competitiveness of
the Bulgarian electricity to regional and is one of the main factors for the sharp decline in
exports from Bulgaria. Statistics export results shows in Q1, 2013 Bulgaria's16
electricity
exports had decreased by 22.5 % on the year, while domestic consumption of electricity had
fallen by 13.07%.
Reducing transmission cost could increase renewable energy productivity on the free market
and elevate income from exporting energy to country neighbours markets.
2.3 Renewable energy restriction
Above were discussed decreased feed-in tariffs and increased transmission cost. These are not
only cooling restriction to RES investor in domestic energy market.
Since February 2013, in aim to secure domestic energy balance from huge surplus capacity
the Electricity System Operator (ESO), gives one day in advance maximizing quotas to
power generator capacity of all wind farms and photovoltaic panels. The announcement of
these quotas is spread to power contractors by the three power distributors. For example the
quotas restricted wind and solar contractors by 40% from 10 am to 5 pm on Thursday (18th
of
April 2013) in order to maintain a balance between the production and consumption of
electricity17
. This act significantly will affect revenue income of photovoltaic power plants.
In other hand according to the statement of the Bulgarian Photovoltaic Association (BPVA),
renewable energy plants cannot influence the balance of the energy system because their
capacity ranges from several KW to several MW8
. However hundreds of small photovoltaic
contractors are contributing to over produced capacity of energy.
16
Energy news http://www.novinite.com/view_news.php?id=150837
17
Energy news http://www.novinite.com/view_news.php?id=149868
10
2.4 Renewable sector overview
In figure 4 is shown total capacity of renewable energy by source14
.
Figure 4: key figures for the Bulgarian electricity market in end of 2012
The installed generation capacity stood at 13.8GW, the share of nuclear, fossil fuel and
renewable energy being 14.5%, 50.0% and 35.5% respectively. The Bulgarian power plant
generated almost 47TWh of electricity, net exports were 8.4TWh and the inland consumption
was 38.6TWh. The share of nuclear, fossil fuel and renewables stood 33.6%, 53.8% and 12.6%
respectively [7]. In comparison Word bank assessment2
shows 15% of total capacity of
consumed electricity was generated by renewable sources. Important finding is the amount of
maximum load of 7.4GW (or 54% of the installed capacity) was reached in February 2013. In
90% of the hours the load was below 5.5GW. The minimum load of 2.6GW (or just 19% of
the installed capacity) was reached on May 2013. Based on those findings the Bulgarian
electricity system had significant overcapacity.
9010 MW
3400 MW Hydro power plants
1040 MW Photovoltaic power plants
850 MW Wind power plants
9010 MW Other fossil power plants
3400 MW
1040 MW
850 MW
11
2.5 Renewable sector highlights.
Under normal market circumstance, included well design central buyer, electricity
distributors and energy experience build in fossil and fuel energy, the renewable energy sector
was very welcome from hundreds domestic investors as new business opportunity.
Renewable market highlight underline several very important points as:
• Driving force of renewable energy sector development is long term PPA (power
purchase agreement) and fixed Feed-in Tariffs (FiT);
• Non-government organization (NGO) - Cluster organization represent private interest
in government face;
• International Events - renewable energy (RE) growth create opportunity Bulgaria to
dominate in local renewable energy market, example is Solar South-East Europe on
29-31 May 2013;
• Available natural sources of RES are: sun; wind; water; hot thermal springs
(negligible source).
• Good academic and university programs thought specialist for energy sector.
• Investor cooling restrictions was enlarging from high cost of renewable energy fixed
FiT, which somehow harm social interest in using cheaper sources of electricity.
• Regulator scalping prices of renewable energy had drop drastically from 1 July 2012.
According that fact, the electricity from photovoltaic panels mounted on roofs and
facades with power up to 30 kilovatpika will fall from $ 409.49 to $ 224.57
(approximately 45% less). For installations from 30 to 200 kWp current price of
$403.58 will be $203.18 (approximately 49% less). Manufacturers of wind energy are
less disadvantaged. In wind farms that work 2250 hours the decline was 21% (from
$127.39 to $100.61) and for working more than 2250 hours the reduction is 30%;
• Regulator on 1st
July 2013 keeps regulation rights to change the feed-in tariffs for next
period of one year.
12
3 Benchmarking
Compare with other Member states, the Bulgarian efforts to reform the electricity sector
started late and look modest and largely incomplete. The electricity market in Bulgaria
follows a hybrid model where part of the transactions for the sale of electricity are concluded
at regulated prices, approved by the regulator, and the remaining part is trade on the
liberalized market at freely negotiated prices.
European commission regulation 2009/28/EC force state members to encourage investment
in renewable energy sources and in other hand encourage energy efficiency. The Bulgarian
market follows the EU regulations rabidly. For example, in 2020 year, Bulgarian has to
consume 16% of total capacity of electricity generated from renewables. In 2013, by World
bank assessment7
, the consumed 15% of total capacity generated by RES. This is result of
huge investments in wind and photovoltaic power plants. Impressive is photovoltaic growth,
which draws sharp slope-up in 2012 adding 721MW (Figure 6) to the national GRID18
.
All this details gives to Bulgaria respectful position in European Photovoltaic Giga Family. In
Europe are short numbers of countries with generated solar capacity upper than 1GW. Since
May 2013, in a glance Bulgaria has capacity to generate 1040MW by usage of photovoltaic
panels.
Worthy is the number of consumed electricity gained from solar power plants, here the
Bulgarian consumer keep 6th
place among EU members with its own consumption of 12719
[Watts] per day generated from solar power plants. This number is far ahead from its north
neighbor Romania with its 0.3 [Watts] (Figure 5).
National policy of yearly changing FiT was as soil for renewable energy seeds. Cause
regulator had of fixed FiT policy on the market new industry appears15
. Renewable investor
expansion creates not only possibility to fulfill EU regulations, also increased employment
rate in energy sector. RES growth created new branch associations, the market became center
18
Eurostat http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home/
19
Energy news
http://www.capital.bg/politika_i_ikonomika/bulgaria/2013/04/08/2037825_top_20_na_elektroenergiinite_mosht
nosti_v_bulgariia/
13
of number international events for green energy growth. A global market leader had entered
the market and increased the local competitiveness of RES construction, operating and
maintains (O&M) services. The market became enough matured to export good practices to
neighbor countries, and in other hand its create opportunity to domestic and multinational
companies to cooperate and in some case for signing MoU for future joint working.
Only and big disadvantage is minimum participation in manufacturing own RES technologies.
There are some numbers of companies who are focusing on producing (generating less than 2
kW electricity) home appliance, where solar panel manufactures in producing panels with
capacity higher than 2kW are few.
14
Picture 5: Solar capacity19
per citizen in the European Union [W/capita]
15
Picture 6: Solar capacity18
in the European Union [MW]
16
4 Project scheme
Electricity production in Bulgaria dates back to the late 19th century. The first Thermal
Power Plant was put into operation in 1899 in Pernik city. In 1900 was put into operation the
first “Pancherevo” Hydro power plant with capacity of 1600 kW. By the middle of the 20th
century were built many small thermal and hydroelectric power with a total 111 000 kW. In
1939 they produced 266 million kWh of electricity and 42 kWh / inhabitant. Currently energy
diversification calculates nuclear, thermal, wind, solar, hydro and BIO power plants.
Currently on the energy market are operating Public and Private companies. The partial
privatization of energy market allowed private domestic and foreign companies to invest in
energy sector.
Attractiveness of historically mature energy market brings participants all around the Globe.
To understand the nature of Bulgarian RES market will be analyze company’s experience
operating with Korean source of capital or RES technologies. In this case those companies
are LG CNS, “Korean Power Electricity Company” and “SDI Company Limited”.
4.1 Special Project Company
In year 2011 Korean electric power company (KEPCO) and SDN are creating Special Project
Company (SPC). Purpose of SPC 2SDN-KEPCO Veliko Tarnovo Solar Plant” is building,
operating and owning Solar power parks situated in two neighborhood district in Veliko
Tarnovo County.
Main financial source of SPC is Korea Development Bank (KDB) with $ 49 million, where
both companies are participating with private debt funding of $97 million. Debt equity grant
ration is 72/28, where private equity funding is $ 57 million. [19]. Source of company
revenue is contracted fixed FiT for 20 years, more information about SPC is shown on table 2.
SPC company study shows some limitation in collecting information. Nevertheless confined
information collected from World bank’s “Private principals in renewable energy” data base
we do professional analyze of company behavior as FDI investor. Further, more we do
evaluate number of successful and unsuccessful practices.
17
According to financial risk allocation SPC were established from Korean State Company
(KEPCO) and semiconductor venture company (SDI). Our sentiment is support by very
temporary political instability which we saw in Feb 2013. It’s was proved that Bulgarian
government canceled PPA agreements with RES companies unduly. Currently Bulgarian
judiciary sues that act, and all RES companies has available PPA agreements with personally
contracted fixed FiT. Other financing limited risk allocation is that the fund source of
investment is fully supported by Korean side (Korean bank and private company funds). On
stock market, SDI had negative 52 weeks slope of share price decreasing (-68% for the
period).
About installed photovoltaic technology there is very limited information. According to
Chinese PV producer Chient, they do supply some of the installed equipment. In other hand
according to LG CNS web site they supply some of the photovoltaic panels. According to
Bulgarian newspaper in Samovodene Solar parks are installed PV panel produced by LG
CNS, and in Zlataritsa Solar power plant are installed Chinese manufactured PV panels.
Both solar parks are having different contracted fixed FiT. Samovodene Solar park had
contracted before 1st
July 2012 with 20 years fixed FiT of [$472.93/ MWh], where Zlataritsa
Solar power plant was contracted after 1st
July 2012 with 20 years take-off agreement with
fixed income of [$365.35 / MWh]. These differentiations make different index of rate of
return in both projects.
Similarities of these solar parks are analogous geographical location. In solar power
technology only generating source of electricity are solar radiation20
, daily sunny hours and
average number of yearly sunny days (picture 7). It is obvious that both parks will have alike
parameters. In one side this had made easier investigating the solar power potential of Veliko
Tarnovo County. Our expertise strongly emphasize disadvantage. Aerography (weather)
forecast affect similarly both photovoltaic power plants. For example there is a rain storm, or
cloudy days, both solar parks will produce very limited capacity of electricity, which means
decreasing of FiT daily income. Research stab to collected information about power plant
maintain and operation is unsuccessful.
20
Figure design is done by Simeon Arnaudov, based on data and maps with Source: www.mi.government.bg
and http://www.solarpro.bg/show.php?storyid=1125
18
Table 2: Special Project Company “SDI-KEPCO Veliko Tarnovo Solar power plant” overview
Company RES technology ASM-BG
Geographical location Zlataritsa village, V. Turnovo Samovodene village, V. Turnovo
Date issue of license 2009.12.14 2010.01.18
Date of generating energy N/A N/A
Project consultant Kim & Chang, Korea Kim & Chang, Korea
Constructor N/A N/A
Technology Photovoltaic panel Photovoltaic panel
Power plant capacity 20 MW/h 21 MW/h
Off-taker National Electric Company National Electric Company
Electricity distributor EVN EVN
Investor
€ 70 million € 80 million
ROI 9% per year 9% per year
Capital
KEPCO - SDI KEPCO - SDI
19
Figure 7: Geographical location/ Solar radiation map/ Power GRID map
20
4.2 RES technology provision
Korean companies joined Bulgarian RES energy market is experienced with photovoltaic
equipment supplying as well. LG CNS penetrates the European solar power market for the first
time with supply and build of 21.3MW (KRW 65.4 billion) solar power plant system. The
generated electricity from these photovoltaic panels are enough to power 7,500 household per
year, reducing over 138,000 tons of CO2 equivalent of planting 5,000 pine trees21
.
LG CNS has implemented solar power systems in full operation in 4 areas of Bulgaria – Yambol,
Valchin, Skobelevo, and Smolnik. The total amount of the projects worth 44 million Euro (KRW
65.4 billion) with contractor Astronergy Solar Korea Co., Ltd14
.
The Bulgaria project has received the spotlight in the industry as the first overseas project to use
the Smart Green Solution (SGS)* that LG CNS developed for the first time outside Korean
market. The SGS system is an integrated solution with aim to support the managing the
electricity generated process in an efficient way supporting distance controlling.
The LG CNS success of the Bulgaria solar power project was in expanding companies
experience into the overseas solar power markets such as Eastern Europe is, in a time where
investments in renewable energies are increasing.
In 2012, as the contractor of the Bulgaria solar power plant invested by Chint, LG CNS had
demonstrated its expertise in building PV power plant. Chint/ Astronergy today announced its
completion of a solar PV power plant with a total installed capacity of 50MWp in Bulgaria. The
commercial operation date of the solar power plant is on June 12, 2012. Given the smooth
collaboration in this project, the two companies decided to seek further cooperation in the solar
power industry with signing MoU22
in March 2013.
21
http://www.lgcns.com/pr-center/news/view/1358/lg-cns-penetrates-the-european-solar-power-market-
for-the-first-time
22
Chint S.A., http://en.chint.com/about/detail?id=50
21
5 Implementation strategy
5.1 Technology solution
Electricity production and its cash flow of fixed FiT with irreversible installed photovoltaic
panels completely depends of scared natural resources. In other words FiT cash flow is
calculated from generated and transmitted electricity to national GRID. Theoretically FiT cash
flow increased with increasing transmitted electricity. Practically there are many regulatory or
atmosphere obstructions. On the order of Privet owner of Power plant SPC company cannot
influence regulator policy. For example regulatory to increase feed-in tariffs or to increase the
daily quotas for RES energy. Similarly SPC could not change the scarcity status of natural
resources.
However SPC company based on accumulated experience could re-engineering the installed
technology for electricity generation.
Historically develop energy market support development of academic and R&D centers.
Professor Stanko Strakov23
in 2010 published methodology to calculate the total solar energy for
various regions of the country and for different slopes and orientation of host surfaces is
developed, The methodology is applied to software program “Solar”. With this methodology
could be calculated daily, monthly and annual amounts of solar radiation for various slopes and
orientation of the receiving surface and different sunlight angles (Figure 8).
23
Assoss. Prof. Dr. Stanko Vladimirov Shtrakov; Faculty of Mathematics & Natural Science; Dep.
Computer System and Technology; Dep. Physics
22
Figure 822
Due to the influence of latitude, weather conditions and local topography of the area, different
regions of the earth receive different amounts of solar energy. The intensity of solar radiation
depends very much on the geometrical position of the host (absorbent) surface Solar radiation
has different power during four seasons (figure 9). The difference in the intensity of solar
radiation, however, related to the plane perpendicular to the sun's rays is not large for different
latitudes. This means that with an appropriate choice of the slope of the receiving surface, solar
energy can be utilized in any area on Earth.
Figure 923
In Bulgaria there is evidence of long-term observations of the duration of sunshine (sunshine).
23
The mean period of sunshine in Bulgaria is about 2100 hours a year. In some areas it reaches
2,500 hours, corresponding to 1400 ÷ 1600 kWh/m2 per year on a horizontal surface, with the
existing long-term solar radiation data, the basic concept in providing data for the territory of
Bulgaria is based on empirical relationships for data conversion for the duration of sunshine (or
clouds) in estimates of solar radiation. Data on the distribution of hours of sunshine there for
about 40 weather stations in Bulgaria.
Based on professor Strakov research we proposed SPC Power company to do re-engineering of
fixed PV metal construction, and recalculate the necessary the horizontal surface, the solar
radiation data in Solar park geographical area.
5.2 Regulatory proposal
Feed-in tariffs which guarantee purchase of all renewable energy regardless of cost, renewable
power plant agents tends to allow more price competition between different types of renewable
energy, but can be limited in competition through eligibility and multipliers for RES agents.
Those supporting the adoption of RPS mechanisms claim that market implementation will result
in competition, efficiency and innovation that will deliver renewable energy at the lowest
possible cost, allowing renewable energy to compete with cheaper fossil fuel energy sources.
Bulgarian Government is planning to create a RES supporting fund, where the taxes for carbone
gas emission to be collected and distributed equally to end user of RES electricity in aim to
decrease electricity price and safeguard direct investments in producing “green energy” and
energy efficiency.
5.3 Local company opportunity
Rapidly growing RES market create a domestic market leaders, and increase competitiveness of
companies offered O&M, EPC. Even on the market appear companies offered full support from
power plant construction, engineer design and O&M.
For example company S.I.G. Bulgaria offer followed services to RES investors: feasibility study
search and evaluation of a suitable location; acquisition and consolidation of land; detailed
24
development plan crossing the stage Ecology change of reinstatement; design of wind and
photovoltaic plants; solar and wind energy audit; analysis of shading; connection to mains supply;
production of drawings and projects ready for coordination with state municipal authorities;
supply and installation of solar panels and wind.
Other domestic company "Solarpro Holding" has become the largest system integrator of
photovoltaic systems in Bulgaria with a total of 32 parks in various stages of completion and
total capacity of about 100 MWp. "Solarpro holding"13
signed its first contract to build a
photovoltaic plant in Macedonia. The park will be 1 MW and will be located in Bitola. "Solarpro
holding company" takes full service EPC (Engineering, procurement and construction) of the
project.
Maturity of Bulgarian RES market create opportunity to FDI investor in green energy to contract
EPC, O&M or other agreement with local companies in aim to fulfill better rate of index of
return, or simply just to relocate and reduce the risk of investment.
6 Expected results
Renewable energy players does expect in short time the energy regulator to reduce electricity
transmission fee (GRID connection fee) and in other side to support electricity export. This
combination of increasing electricity export and decreasing amount of transmission fee will
safeguard fast growth of renewables in domestic market. Furthermore the RES growth push
Bulgaria to become not just follower of Directive 2009/28/EC but also makes the country and
National energy sector to be one of the early adopters of renewable energy policies not only as
implementing new technologies to the market, also as innovator in setting up suitable
government regulation in securing energy market. The main remaining problem is still in macro
level with conflict between social and private interest. It is mean low purchasing power of end
electricity customer with return on investment of expensive renewable technologies. Here will be
interesting after not very long time the market to be investigated again, with aim to be shown the
results of future regulatory changes.
25
7 Implication
Implication could be dividing in a several group: improve regulatory framework; protect end
consumer; increase electricity export; reengineering off-taker obligation; stimulate domestic
academic and R&D centers in researching in area of RES. Regulatory framework could be more
transparent and fair balanced to energy market. The regulator has to review additional fees and to
ensure they are not discriminatory. Facilitate export of electricity with overview of local South-
East European energy market, and cooperate with countries as Turkey with current high
electricity demand. Mandatory is to transmission fees to be reduced.
Off-take obligation have to be adjust to electricity demand. It is need to set up a transparent
framework for daily energy quota. For example the quotas have to limited highest emission
energy producers. In our situation quotas are limiting RES producer with only logic to reduce
consuming expensive electricity. Increase possibilities RES producers to become participants of
free energy market.
8 Conclusion
We expect the Bulgarian electricity consumer to increase consuming renewable energy with
contribution to reduce carbonate gases waste. Return of investment does depend of electricity
demand. The regulator has to stimulate efficient consuming of electricity, however the economic
problems of price are electricity and RES investor return have to be solve as well. In few months
we expect the regulator to do reengineering of government policy with aim to stimulate
producing energy from RES.
26
9 Bibliography
JonhZysman; Mark Huberty; 2From religion to reality: Energy systems transformation for
sustainable prosperity”; June 2011; The Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy;
Ministry of economy, energy and tourism, republic of Bulgaira: www.mi.government.bg/en
World bank assessment 27th
May 2013
Energy news: http://www.novinite.com/view_news.php?id=150837
Energy news: http://www.novinite.com/view_news.php?id=149868
Bulgarian Photovoltaic Association
http://www.capital.bg/politika_i_ikonomika/bulgaria/2013/04/08/2037825_top_20_na_elektroen
ergiinite_moshtnosti_v_bulgariia/
Electricity system operator: http://tso.bg/default.aspx/page-707/bg
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy
http://www.solarpro.bg/show.php?storyid=1125
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source
Assoss. Prof. Dr. Stanko Vladimirov Shtrakov; Faculty of Mathematics & Natural Science; Dep.
Computer System and Technology; Dep. Physics
Proper company: “My sunny Bulgaria” Ltd, Svilengrad city, 7A Parijka komuna Str., Bulgaria, P
ost code: 6500 www.mysunnybulgaria.com
http://en.chint.com/about/detail?id=50
http://www.lgcns.com/pr-center/news/view/1358/lg-cns-penetrates-the-european-solar-power-
market-for-the-first-time
http://ppi-re.worldbank.org/Data/Project/sdn-kepco-veliko-tarnovo-solar-plant-6665
http://www.corporateinformation.com/Company-Snapshot.aspx?cusip=C410000R0
27

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41MWp Solar Power Plant Study

  • 1. Solar power plant (41MWp): Bulgarian renewable energy market study Simeon Ventsislavov Arnaudov1 , Byung-chul Park2 , Gyung-sam Kim3 , Kyung-sam Kim4 , Mihaela Apostol5 , Rofat Math6 , Young-sang Cho7 Abstract Green economic growth became slogan of thousands public and private activities, nevertheless there are arguments for switching to low-carbon, high-efficiency energy systems disregard enormous investment cost. Innovative energy technologies are able to reduce carbone emissions in aim to limit or avoid climate change directs the public debate. However renewable energy source reduced dependence on imported energy, suspension of conflicts over energy resources, and the increasing price of fossil fuels also are motivate actions. Nonetheless, the potential price and difficulty of doing the transition to a new energy system have brought forted essential opposition from fortified economic interests and consumers equally. In this paper we investigate whether and how photovoltaic power plants as case of renewable energy growing market as Bulgaria do, could become an economic occasion rather than a precious burden. Could a photovoltaic energy capacity induce net economic growth rather than social pay off burden? Analyzing foreign (Korean) direct investment as photovoltaic power plant case study as example of some successful or unsuccessful practices of rapidly growing domestic renewable market. Our aim is this paper to be useful to public or private energy communities in supporting them with professional renewable domestic market anatomy. Keywords: photovoltaic power plant, feed-in tariff, renewable energy regulation, Bulgaria 1 PhD Candidate, ITPP/TEMEP, Seoul National University (IT Senior Expert at Ministry of education, youth and science, Republic of Bulgaria) 2 Senior manager, Korea South-East Power, Republic of Korea 3 General manager, Overseas business team, New business development department, Korea Southern Power, republic of Korea 4 Senior manager, Korea Southern Power, Republic of Korea 5 PhD candidate, ITPP/TEMEP, Seoul National University (Project consultant, Ministry of communication and information society) 6 Master Candidate, IEPP/TEMEP, Seoul National University (Planning officer, Ministry of industry, mines and energy, Kingdom of Cambodia) 7 Assistant professor, Yonsei University, Republic of Korea 1
  • 2. 1 Introduction 1.1 Legal and regulatory framework Like member of The European Union, Bulgaria as state follow Directive 2009/28/EC, where in year of 2020 16% of total consumed electricity must be from renewable source. Particularly in Bulgaria the legal and regulatory framework is leaded by Ministry of economy, energy and tourism (MEET), which conduct the energy policy pursuant Energy law. The ministry is in account of all energy policy, and providing transparent, stable and reliable framework for domestic and foreign direct investors, existed power plant owners, market operators, electricity distributors, and sub supporting government agencies. Market structure is showed on figure 1. The national regulator authority for energy is recognized in The State Energy and Water Regulatory Commission (SEWRC). The State agent is established by the Energy law as specialized government agent which regulates all activities in energy, water supply and sewerage sector. Under EU legislation, the operators of the transmission networks for gas and electricity need to be separated and made independent from undertaking with generation and supply activities. This process of renewable energy sector is more advanced and market players need to have certification of the Electricity System Operator (ESO) before SERWC8 . 8 EU report march 2013; www.mi.government.bg/en 2
  • 3. Figure 1: Legal, regulatory and market structure of electricity market in Bulgaria9 9 Ministry of economy, energy and tourism, Republic of Bulgaria; www.mi.government.bg Renewable Energy Power plants (under Feed-in Tariffs) Coal Independent Power Producers State-owned Energy Suppliers (nuclear, coal, gas) NEK: single buyer; aggregator; large hydropower generator; supplier of last resort & transmission company System operator (owned by NEK): organize the balancing model High-voltage customers Energo Pro EVN CEZ Generation Transmission Distribution Co-generation supplier Purchased and paid for by NEK under Energy Purchased and paid for by NEK under Energy Law Purchased and paid for by NEK under Purchased and paid for by NEK under Energy Distribution entities collect on behalf of NEK Regulated electricity prices through annual tariff orders 15% 15% ~58% ~12% 3
  • 4. 1.2 National energy market structure Bulgaria’s share of renewable energy in final energy mix reached approximately 15% 10 (figure 2) following the target of 16% consumption required by Directive 2009/28/EC. Currently, Bulgaria renewable energy capacity has 850MW installed capacity of wind, 1040 MW capacity of photovoltaic and 3100 MW capacity of hydro (large and small) power plant (3). Other installed RES as BIO are negligible (around 29MW[3]). Total installed capacity of the Bulgarian electricity system is a bit less than 14 000 MW, where renewable power plant account 35.5% of it. Furthermore, during year of 2012 peak of electricity demand were 7,444 MW, and minimum 2600MW. Comparing total capacity of RES reserve with domestic market peak and minimum, it is obvious to conclude that the part of RES among all electric capacity is high. However, have to claim that there is opportunity Bulgaria to share its own RES capacity with other potentially having lack of RES EU members in the beginning of 2020. However the energy regulator has to keep in mind this positive news that the annul nuclear power and thermal power plants can operate 7,000 hours/year, while wind and solar farms can operate about 1,000 hours/year. Implementing legislation for Feed-in tariff scheme to support RES was recognized from investors as main driving force of sharp growing renewable energy sector. One more, the regulator annually have rights to adjust the feed-in tariffs on 1st July each year gives chance to many photovoltaic company to sign fortunate 20 year take-off contract. After rapid expansion of solar power plants in 2012, regulator in aim to cool investor ambitions reduce the feed-in tariffs respectively with 50%. This government campaign was recognized from society as only way to safeguard the public interest of low price electricity consumption with 0.08€/ kWh. Another investor interest frizzing step was done on September 2012.The GRID access fee have been introduced for renewable power plants as well, which reduce their revenue by 10% to 39% depending on the type of renewable technology and date of feed-in tariff signed contract. Finally the RES subserve accounts 7% in the final customer price for bought household and liberalized market in 2013. 10 World bank assessment 27th May 2013; www.mi.government.bg/en 4
  • 5. Figure 2: Generation structure in 201211 (TWh) According to “Finding and recommendation” of European commission in May 2013 after resigning of Bulgarian government, shows in practice how the existing facilities of renewable energy are much larger than necessary in year 2013 still far and away from pending requirements Directive 2009/28/EC. The report announced that the government instability followed by regulator intervention led to the temporary situation most of the RES plants to be forcibly stopped or restricted to work. The limitations do not apply to hydro power plants, especially (2013 Spring season) when the dams are full and cogeneration facilities of district heating are needed in Urban area (used for supply central heating system to public buildings and private householders). Other finding is price calculation of energy mix (nuclear; thermal; photovoltaic; hydro; wind power) complexity. The price of energy from the picture 3 we can see that it varies from $28.62 MWh to $479.93 MWh (08 June 2013 exchange rate: $1 = BGN 1,478), while the price at which the National Electricity Company (NEC) sells energy distribution companies and in turn consumers is $53.57 MWh. 12 European Commission report monitor the energy surpluses, and call for greater transparency in the energy sector, which appeals to government to open the door and the Electricity System Operator (ESO) began to publish information in real time at what point how many and which power operate facilities in the country13 . It can be monitor online by stating that the published data are operational. 11 Ministry of economy, energy and tourism, Republic of Bulgaria; www.mi.government.bg 12 Ministry of economy, energy and tourism; Republic of Bulgaria; www.mi.government.bg 13 Electricity system operator: www.tso.bg/default.aspx/page-707/bg 15% Renewable energy 12% Long term contracted agr. TPP 35% Nuclear power plant 23% Thermal power plant 15% Steam thermal power plant 15% 15% 12% 35% 23% 5
  • 6. Figure 3: Power plant contracted price in USD/MWh (Source: MEET, Republic of Bulgaria8 ) 6
  • 7. 1.3. Renewable energy in Bulgaria Definition14 of renewable energy claim that RES is energy that comes from resources which are continually replenished such as sunlight, wind, rain, tides, waves and geothermal heat. Importance of renewable energy is in reducing possible climate change and minimizing global warming concerns, covered with high oil prices, and increasing government subsidies, are driving increasing renewable energy legislation, incentives and commercialization. Economic growth through increasing usage of RES meets strong social impact. RES usually rely to innovation technologies, according to specific natural resources of Bulgaria, some of those technologies are customized to the geographical location of the country. All engineering solutions, scares of natural resources, government regulation, and profit maximization increase amount of direct investment in creating brand new renewable power plant. It is understandable if investor is private agent return of investment shortage is the main company goal. In other hand level of electricity price has strong social impact. In case of Bulgaria, in middle of Feb 2013 government resign under pressure of social street movement against increased electricity bills in sudden. Bulgarian government adopted "Access to sustainable and effective energy resources" measures suggested by the EC. Follow pending EC regulation in year 2020 Bulgarian energy market have to consume renewable energy in minimum of 16% out of total produced electricity. According to EC report findings Bulgaria is going to reach this level in the end of 2013. Research objectives are to study Korean FDI Solar Power Plant in Bulgaria. To analyze renewable market situation, will be conduct company behavior of foreign direct investment companies (special project companies): “RES technology” Ltd and “ASM investicii” Ltd. It will be monitored company reaction induced from government market interventions. Successful and unsuccessful practices of both companies will be presented as well. In analyzing FDI in renewable sector will be study the degree of collaboration with domestic energy expertise (in view of academic and other domestic companies who are providing energy or engineer solutions). 14 European commission http://ec.europa.eu/energy/renewables/index_en.htm 7
  • 8. 2 Context 2.1 Price of electricity In this study we figure out two types of price: feed in tariff and consumer price. Price of electricity15 is summation of power supply (base price) power distribution price; supplements price (for usage of green energy). The price of electricity in the market with different sources of electricity by various PA is formed by the combination of various contracts, operation costs and allowances for green energy, while electricity price has strong social significance. According to the latest World Bank report on Bulgarian energy market (May 2013), Bulgarian citizens are energy poor. It is meaning the citizens are spending more than 10% of their income buying energy services (electricity supply; others). Price of feed-in tariffs [USD $/MWh] (Source: ministry of energy, economic and tourism) is shown in table 1. Table 1: Feed-in tariff agreement by RES8 15 Bulgarian Photovoltaic Association www.bpva.org Renewable energy company Capacity (MWp) Feed-in tariff (USD/MWh) Type of RES ASM BG Investicii S.A. 21 $ 472.93 solar Wind force BG Ltd 10 $ 365.35 solar ZBE Partners S.A. 50 $ 365.35 solar BCI Cherganovo Ltd 29 $ 365.35 solar Helios project S.A. 25 $ 365.35 solar RES technology S.A. 20 $ 365.35 solar Ecosolar Ltd 15 $ 365.35 solar Company for energy development Ltd 14 $ 365.65 solar Ecoenergy solar Ltd 10 $ 365.65 solar E.V.T – Electra Volt Trade S.A. 10 $ 365.35 solar 8
  • 9. By National Energy law regulation all photovoltaic power plants contract long term 20 years purchase power agreement, also each year on 1st of July the regulator set up new feed-in tariff for the new comers. It is mean one time signed PPA is stays till the end of the contract. On year 2012 with aim to protect energy market and to limited rapid growth of photovoltaic investment, regulator decreases the feed-in tariff approximately with 50%. Even though down slope of feed-in tariff last year (after 1st July 2012) the amount of connected solar capacity to national GRID was 721MW. That time the only reaction of regulator was to decrease the take-off price of all new renewable PPA contracts. 2.2 Energy export Usually, as was written above the important things in the energy sector in Bulgaria are happening around the 1 July, when the energy regulator, which plays a decisive role in this sector decides on electricity prices and quantities to be sold on the regulated and free markets. So even before the decision of the regulator last year to be taken, traders of electricity warned that exports from Bulgaria will be blocked. The reason cited was the increase in the price of Dubovo energy Ltd 10 $ 365.35 solar Mondy Stamboliiski S.A. 10 $ 166.44 BIO BCI Kazanluk 1,2,8,9,10 25 $ 160.35 solar Vetrokom Ltd: VEP Kontakt Consult 23 $ 129.22 solar EVN-Kavarna Ltd 16 $ 129.22 solar A and S Geo energy Ltd. 156 $ 127.19 solar Eolika Bulgaria S.A. 60 $ 127.19 solar Vetrokom Ltd: VEP Vetrkom 50 $ 127.19 wind Kaliakra Wind power S.A. 35 $ 127.19 wind Haos invest-1 S.A. 16 $ 100.81 wind Sofiiska voda S.A. 3 $ 81.86 BIO Energo-pro S.A. 103 $ 75.78 Hydro BAD Granitoid S.A. 23 $ 75.78 Hydro Litex Hydro S.A. 6 $ 75.78 Hydro Currency exchange rate (8th May 2013) 1 USD= 1.478 BGN 9
  • 10. transmission, which is paid for each megawatt hour of electricity exported from the country and which in July 2012 was increased from $ 15.56 to $ 23.21 per MWh, an increase of 74.72%. Hardly the problem with this fee would be so great if it was applied in all other countries. At present, however, charge transfer electricity export only in Romania and Greece, but is significantly lower than the Bulgarian. This naturally led to the non-competitiveness of the Bulgarian electricity to regional and is one of the main factors for the sharp decline in exports from Bulgaria. Statistics export results shows in Q1, 2013 Bulgaria's16 electricity exports had decreased by 22.5 % on the year, while domestic consumption of electricity had fallen by 13.07%. Reducing transmission cost could increase renewable energy productivity on the free market and elevate income from exporting energy to country neighbours markets. 2.3 Renewable energy restriction Above were discussed decreased feed-in tariffs and increased transmission cost. These are not only cooling restriction to RES investor in domestic energy market. Since February 2013, in aim to secure domestic energy balance from huge surplus capacity the Electricity System Operator (ESO), gives one day in advance maximizing quotas to power generator capacity of all wind farms and photovoltaic panels. The announcement of these quotas is spread to power contractors by the three power distributors. For example the quotas restricted wind and solar contractors by 40% from 10 am to 5 pm on Thursday (18th of April 2013) in order to maintain a balance between the production and consumption of electricity17 . This act significantly will affect revenue income of photovoltaic power plants. In other hand according to the statement of the Bulgarian Photovoltaic Association (BPVA), renewable energy plants cannot influence the balance of the energy system because their capacity ranges from several KW to several MW8 . However hundreds of small photovoltaic contractors are contributing to over produced capacity of energy. 16 Energy news http://www.novinite.com/view_news.php?id=150837 17 Energy news http://www.novinite.com/view_news.php?id=149868 10
  • 11. 2.4 Renewable sector overview In figure 4 is shown total capacity of renewable energy by source14 . Figure 4: key figures for the Bulgarian electricity market in end of 2012 The installed generation capacity stood at 13.8GW, the share of nuclear, fossil fuel and renewable energy being 14.5%, 50.0% and 35.5% respectively. The Bulgarian power plant generated almost 47TWh of electricity, net exports were 8.4TWh and the inland consumption was 38.6TWh. The share of nuclear, fossil fuel and renewables stood 33.6%, 53.8% and 12.6% respectively [7]. In comparison Word bank assessment2 shows 15% of total capacity of consumed electricity was generated by renewable sources. Important finding is the amount of maximum load of 7.4GW (or 54% of the installed capacity) was reached in February 2013. In 90% of the hours the load was below 5.5GW. The minimum load of 2.6GW (or just 19% of the installed capacity) was reached on May 2013. Based on those findings the Bulgarian electricity system had significant overcapacity. 9010 MW 3400 MW Hydro power plants 1040 MW Photovoltaic power plants 850 MW Wind power plants 9010 MW Other fossil power plants 3400 MW 1040 MW 850 MW 11
  • 12. 2.5 Renewable sector highlights. Under normal market circumstance, included well design central buyer, electricity distributors and energy experience build in fossil and fuel energy, the renewable energy sector was very welcome from hundreds domestic investors as new business opportunity. Renewable market highlight underline several very important points as: • Driving force of renewable energy sector development is long term PPA (power purchase agreement) and fixed Feed-in Tariffs (FiT); • Non-government organization (NGO) - Cluster organization represent private interest in government face; • International Events - renewable energy (RE) growth create opportunity Bulgaria to dominate in local renewable energy market, example is Solar South-East Europe on 29-31 May 2013; • Available natural sources of RES are: sun; wind; water; hot thermal springs (negligible source). • Good academic and university programs thought specialist for energy sector. • Investor cooling restrictions was enlarging from high cost of renewable energy fixed FiT, which somehow harm social interest in using cheaper sources of electricity. • Regulator scalping prices of renewable energy had drop drastically from 1 July 2012. According that fact, the electricity from photovoltaic panels mounted on roofs and facades with power up to 30 kilovatpika will fall from $ 409.49 to $ 224.57 (approximately 45% less). For installations from 30 to 200 kWp current price of $403.58 will be $203.18 (approximately 49% less). Manufacturers of wind energy are less disadvantaged. In wind farms that work 2250 hours the decline was 21% (from $127.39 to $100.61) and for working more than 2250 hours the reduction is 30%; • Regulator on 1st July 2013 keeps regulation rights to change the feed-in tariffs for next period of one year. 12
  • 13. 3 Benchmarking Compare with other Member states, the Bulgarian efforts to reform the electricity sector started late and look modest and largely incomplete. The electricity market in Bulgaria follows a hybrid model where part of the transactions for the sale of electricity are concluded at regulated prices, approved by the regulator, and the remaining part is trade on the liberalized market at freely negotiated prices. European commission regulation 2009/28/EC force state members to encourage investment in renewable energy sources and in other hand encourage energy efficiency. The Bulgarian market follows the EU regulations rabidly. For example, in 2020 year, Bulgarian has to consume 16% of total capacity of electricity generated from renewables. In 2013, by World bank assessment7 , the consumed 15% of total capacity generated by RES. This is result of huge investments in wind and photovoltaic power plants. Impressive is photovoltaic growth, which draws sharp slope-up in 2012 adding 721MW (Figure 6) to the national GRID18 . All this details gives to Bulgaria respectful position in European Photovoltaic Giga Family. In Europe are short numbers of countries with generated solar capacity upper than 1GW. Since May 2013, in a glance Bulgaria has capacity to generate 1040MW by usage of photovoltaic panels. Worthy is the number of consumed electricity gained from solar power plants, here the Bulgarian consumer keep 6th place among EU members with its own consumption of 12719 [Watts] per day generated from solar power plants. This number is far ahead from its north neighbor Romania with its 0.3 [Watts] (Figure 5). National policy of yearly changing FiT was as soil for renewable energy seeds. Cause regulator had of fixed FiT policy on the market new industry appears15 . Renewable investor expansion creates not only possibility to fulfill EU regulations, also increased employment rate in energy sector. RES growth created new branch associations, the market became center 18 Eurostat http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home/ 19 Energy news http://www.capital.bg/politika_i_ikonomika/bulgaria/2013/04/08/2037825_top_20_na_elektroenergiinite_mosht nosti_v_bulgariia/ 13
  • 14. of number international events for green energy growth. A global market leader had entered the market and increased the local competitiveness of RES construction, operating and maintains (O&M) services. The market became enough matured to export good practices to neighbor countries, and in other hand its create opportunity to domestic and multinational companies to cooperate and in some case for signing MoU for future joint working. Only and big disadvantage is minimum participation in manufacturing own RES technologies. There are some numbers of companies who are focusing on producing (generating less than 2 kW electricity) home appliance, where solar panel manufactures in producing panels with capacity higher than 2kW are few. 14
  • 15. Picture 5: Solar capacity19 per citizen in the European Union [W/capita] 15
  • 16. Picture 6: Solar capacity18 in the European Union [MW] 16
  • 17. 4 Project scheme Electricity production in Bulgaria dates back to the late 19th century. The first Thermal Power Plant was put into operation in 1899 in Pernik city. In 1900 was put into operation the first “Pancherevo” Hydro power plant with capacity of 1600 kW. By the middle of the 20th century were built many small thermal and hydroelectric power with a total 111 000 kW. In 1939 they produced 266 million kWh of electricity and 42 kWh / inhabitant. Currently energy diversification calculates nuclear, thermal, wind, solar, hydro and BIO power plants. Currently on the energy market are operating Public and Private companies. The partial privatization of energy market allowed private domestic and foreign companies to invest in energy sector. Attractiveness of historically mature energy market brings participants all around the Globe. To understand the nature of Bulgarian RES market will be analyze company’s experience operating with Korean source of capital or RES technologies. In this case those companies are LG CNS, “Korean Power Electricity Company” and “SDI Company Limited”. 4.1 Special Project Company In year 2011 Korean electric power company (KEPCO) and SDN are creating Special Project Company (SPC). Purpose of SPC 2SDN-KEPCO Veliko Tarnovo Solar Plant” is building, operating and owning Solar power parks situated in two neighborhood district in Veliko Tarnovo County. Main financial source of SPC is Korea Development Bank (KDB) with $ 49 million, where both companies are participating with private debt funding of $97 million. Debt equity grant ration is 72/28, where private equity funding is $ 57 million. [19]. Source of company revenue is contracted fixed FiT for 20 years, more information about SPC is shown on table 2. SPC company study shows some limitation in collecting information. Nevertheless confined information collected from World bank’s “Private principals in renewable energy” data base we do professional analyze of company behavior as FDI investor. Further, more we do evaluate number of successful and unsuccessful practices. 17
  • 18. According to financial risk allocation SPC were established from Korean State Company (KEPCO) and semiconductor venture company (SDI). Our sentiment is support by very temporary political instability which we saw in Feb 2013. It’s was proved that Bulgarian government canceled PPA agreements with RES companies unduly. Currently Bulgarian judiciary sues that act, and all RES companies has available PPA agreements with personally contracted fixed FiT. Other financing limited risk allocation is that the fund source of investment is fully supported by Korean side (Korean bank and private company funds). On stock market, SDI had negative 52 weeks slope of share price decreasing (-68% for the period). About installed photovoltaic technology there is very limited information. According to Chinese PV producer Chient, they do supply some of the installed equipment. In other hand according to LG CNS web site they supply some of the photovoltaic panels. According to Bulgarian newspaper in Samovodene Solar parks are installed PV panel produced by LG CNS, and in Zlataritsa Solar power plant are installed Chinese manufactured PV panels. Both solar parks are having different contracted fixed FiT. Samovodene Solar park had contracted before 1st July 2012 with 20 years fixed FiT of [$472.93/ MWh], where Zlataritsa Solar power plant was contracted after 1st July 2012 with 20 years take-off agreement with fixed income of [$365.35 / MWh]. These differentiations make different index of rate of return in both projects. Similarities of these solar parks are analogous geographical location. In solar power technology only generating source of electricity are solar radiation20 , daily sunny hours and average number of yearly sunny days (picture 7). It is obvious that both parks will have alike parameters. In one side this had made easier investigating the solar power potential of Veliko Tarnovo County. Our expertise strongly emphasize disadvantage. Aerography (weather) forecast affect similarly both photovoltaic power plants. For example there is a rain storm, or cloudy days, both solar parks will produce very limited capacity of electricity, which means decreasing of FiT daily income. Research stab to collected information about power plant maintain and operation is unsuccessful. 20 Figure design is done by Simeon Arnaudov, based on data and maps with Source: www.mi.government.bg and http://www.solarpro.bg/show.php?storyid=1125 18
  • 19. Table 2: Special Project Company “SDI-KEPCO Veliko Tarnovo Solar power plant” overview Company RES technology ASM-BG Geographical location Zlataritsa village, V. Turnovo Samovodene village, V. Turnovo Date issue of license 2009.12.14 2010.01.18 Date of generating energy N/A N/A Project consultant Kim & Chang, Korea Kim & Chang, Korea Constructor N/A N/A Technology Photovoltaic panel Photovoltaic panel Power plant capacity 20 MW/h 21 MW/h Off-taker National Electric Company National Electric Company Electricity distributor EVN EVN Investor € 70 million € 80 million ROI 9% per year 9% per year Capital KEPCO - SDI KEPCO - SDI 19
  • 20. Figure 7: Geographical location/ Solar radiation map/ Power GRID map 20
  • 21. 4.2 RES technology provision Korean companies joined Bulgarian RES energy market is experienced with photovoltaic equipment supplying as well. LG CNS penetrates the European solar power market for the first time with supply and build of 21.3MW (KRW 65.4 billion) solar power plant system. The generated electricity from these photovoltaic panels are enough to power 7,500 household per year, reducing over 138,000 tons of CO2 equivalent of planting 5,000 pine trees21 . LG CNS has implemented solar power systems in full operation in 4 areas of Bulgaria – Yambol, Valchin, Skobelevo, and Smolnik. The total amount of the projects worth 44 million Euro (KRW 65.4 billion) with contractor Astronergy Solar Korea Co., Ltd14 . The Bulgaria project has received the spotlight in the industry as the first overseas project to use the Smart Green Solution (SGS)* that LG CNS developed for the first time outside Korean market. The SGS system is an integrated solution with aim to support the managing the electricity generated process in an efficient way supporting distance controlling. The LG CNS success of the Bulgaria solar power project was in expanding companies experience into the overseas solar power markets such as Eastern Europe is, in a time where investments in renewable energies are increasing. In 2012, as the contractor of the Bulgaria solar power plant invested by Chint, LG CNS had demonstrated its expertise in building PV power plant. Chint/ Astronergy today announced its completion of a solar PV power plant with a total installed capacity of 50MWp in Bulgaria. The commercial operation date of the solar power plant is on June 12, 2012. Given the smooth collaboration in this project, the two companies decided to seek further cooperation in the solar power industry with signing MoU22 in March 2013. 21 http://www.lgcns.com/pr-center/news/view/1358/lg-cns-penetrates-the-european-solar-power-market- for-the-first-time 22 Chint S.A., http://en.chint.com/about/detail?id=50 21
  • 22. 5 Implementation strategy 5.1 Technology solution Electricity production and its cash flow of fixed FiT with irreversible installed photovoltaic panels completely depends of scared natural resources. In other words FiT cash flow is calculated from generated and transmitted electricity to national GRID. Theoretically FiT cash flow increased with increasing transmitted electricity. Practically there are many regulatory or atmosphere obstructions. On the order of Privet owner of Power plant SPC company cannot influence regulator policy. For example regulatory to increase feed-in tariffs or to increase the daily quotas for RES energy. Similarly SPC could not change the scarcity status of natural resources. However SPC company based on accumulated experience could re-engineering the installed technology for electricity generation. Historically develop energy market support development of academic and R&D centers. Professor Stanko Strakov23 in 2010 published methodology to calculate the total solar energy for various regions of the country and for different slopes and orientation of host surfaces is developed, The methodology is applied to software program “Solar”. With this methodology could be calculated daily, monthly and annual amounts of solar radiation for various slopes and orientation of the receiving surface and different sunlight angles (Figure 8). 23 Assoss. Prof. Dr. Stanko Vladimirov Shtrakov; Faculty of Mathematics & Natural Science; Dep. Computer System and Technology; Dep. Physics 22
  • 23. Figure 822 Due to the influence of latitude, weather conditions and local topography of the area, different regions of the earth receive different amounts of solar energy. The intensity of solar radiation depends very much on the geometrical position of the host (absorbent) surface Solar radiation has different power during four seasons (figure 9). The difference in the intensity of solar radiation, however, related to the plane perpendicular to the sun's rays is not large for different latitudes. This means that with an appropriate choice of the slope of the receiving surface, solar energy can be utilized in any area on Earth. Figure 923 In Bulgaria there is evidence of long-term observations of the duration of sunshine (sunshine). 23
  • 24. The mean period of sunshine in Bulgaria is about 2100 hours a year. In some areas it reaches 2,500 hours, corresponding to 1400 ÷ 1600 kWh/m2 per year on a horizontal surface, with the existing long-term solar radiation data, the basic concept in providing data for the territory of Bulgaria is based on empirical relationships for data conversion for the duration of sunshine (or clouds) in estimates of solar radiation. Data on the distribution of hours of sunshine there for about 40 weather stations in Bulgaria. Based on professor Strakov research we proposed SPC Power company to do re-engineering of fixed PV metal construction, and recalculate the necessary the horizontal surface, the solar radiation data in Solar park geographical area. 5.2 Regulatory proposal Feed-in tariffs which guarantee purchase of all renewable energy regardless of cost, renewable power plant agents tends to allow more price competition between different types of renewable energy, but can be limited in competition through eligibility and multipliers for RES agents. Those supporting the adoption of RPS mechanisms claim that market implementation will result in competition, efficiency and innovation that will deliver renewable energy at the lowest possible cost, allowing renewable energy to compete with cheaper fossil fuel energy sources. Bulgarian Government is planning to create a RES supporting fund, where the taxes for carbone gas emission to be collected and distributed equally to end user of RES electricity in aim to decrease electricity price and safeguard direct investments in producing “green energy” and energy efficiency. 5.3 Local company opportunity Rapidly growing RES market create a domestic market leaders, and increase competitiveness of companies offered O&M, EPC. Even on the market appear companies offered full support from power plant construction, engineer design and O&M. For example company S.I.G. Bulgaria offer followed services to RES investors: feasibility study search and evaluation of a suitable location; acquisition and consolidation of land; detailed 24
  • 25. development plan crossing the stage Ecology change of reinstatement; design of wind and photovoltaic plants; solar and wind energy audit; analysis of shading; connection to mains supply; production of drawings and projects ready for coordination with state municipal authorities; supply and installation of solar panels and wind. Other domestic company "Solarpro Holding" has become the largest system integrator of photovoltaic systems in Bulgaria with a total of 32 parks in various stages of completion and total capacity of about 100 MWp. "Solarpro holding"13 signed its first contract to build a photovoltaic plant in Macedonia. The park will be 1 MW and will be located in Bitola. "Solarpro holding company" takes full service EPC (Engineering, procurement and construction) of the project. Maturity of Bulgarian RES market create opportunity to FDI investor in green energy to contract EPC, O&M or other agreement with local companies in aim to fulfill better rate of index of return, or simply just to relocate and reduce the risk of investment. 6 Expected results Renewable energy players does expect in short time the energy regulator to reduce electricity transmission fee (GRID connection fee) and in other side to support electricity export. This combination of increasing electricity export and decreasing amount of transmission fee will safeguard fast growth of renewables in domestic market. Furthermore the RES growth push Bulgaria to become not just follower of Directive 2009/28/EC but also makes the country and National energy sector to be one of the early adopters of renewable energy policies not only as implementing new technologies to the market, also as innovator in setting up suitable government regulation in securing energy market. The main remaining problem is still in macro level with conflict between social and private interest. It is mean low purchasing power of end electricity customer with return on investment of expensive renewable technologies. Here will be interesting after not very long time the market to be investigated again, with aim to be shown the results of future regulatory changes. 25
  • 26. 7 Implication Implication could be dividing in a several group: improve regulatory framework; protect end consumer; increase electricity export; reengineering off-taker obligation; stimulate domestic academic and R&D centers in researching in area of RES. Regulatory framework could be more transparent and fair balanced to energy market. The regulator has to review additional fees and to ensure they are not discriminatory. Facilitate export of electricity with overview of local South- East European energy market, and cooperate with countries as Turkey with current high electricity demand. Mandatory is to transmission fees to be reduced. Off-take obligation have to be adjust to electricity demand. It is need to set up a transparent framework for daily energy quota. For example the quotas have to limited highest emission energy producers. In our situation quotas are limiting RES producer with only logic to reduce consuming expensive electricity. Increase possibilities RES producers to become participants of free energy market. 8 Conclusion We expect the Bulgarian electricity consumer to increase consuming renewable energy with contribution to reduce carbonate gases waste. Return of investment does depend of electricity demand. The regulator has to stimulate efficient consuming of electricity, however the economic problems of price are electricity and RES investor return have to be solve as well. In few months we expect the regulator to do reengineering of government policy with aim to stimulate producing energy from RES. 26
  • 27. 9 Bibliography JonhZysman; Mark Huberty; 2From religion to reality: Energy systems transformation for sustainable prosperity”; June 2011; The Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy; Ministry of economy, energy and tourism, republic of Bulgaira: www.mi.government.bg/en World bank assessment 27th May 2013 Energy news: http://www.novinite.com/view_news.php?id=150837 Energy news: http://www.novinite.com/view_news.php?id=149868 Bulgarian Photovoltaic Association http://www.capital.bg/politika_i_ikonomika/bulgaria/2013/04/08/2037825_top_20_na_elektroen ergiinite_moshtnosti_v_bulgariia/ Electricity system operator: http://tso.bg/default.aspx/page-707/bg http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy http://www.solarpro.bg/show.php?storyid=1125 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source Assoss. Prof. Dr. Stanko Vladimirov Shtrakov; Faculty of Mathematics & Natural Science; Dep. Computer System and Technology; Dep. Physics Proper company: “My sunny Bulgaria” Ltd, Svilengrad city, 7A Parijka komuna Str., Bulgaria, P ost code: 6500 www.mysunnybulgaria.com http://en.chint.com/about/detail?id=50 http://www.lgcns.com/pr-center/news/view/1358/lg-cns-penetrates-the-european-solar-power- market-for-the-first-time http://ppi-re.worldbank.org/Data/Project/sdn-kepco-veliko-tarnovo-solar-plant-6665 http://www.corporateinformation.com/Company-Snapshot.aspx?cusip=C410000R0 27