We gathered data from different resources and then finalize our presentation. The intention to upload this file is to help those guys who need some guidelines for preparing presentation. :)

1. PRESENTED BY :~
 1 – Syed Ghazanfar -60911
 2 – Sharjeel Mateen -60738
 3 – Waleed Hafeez -60650
TEACHER NAME :~
Sir Naveed Wahid Awan

3. Overview
 Introduction
 Objective of study
 Data Collection/Methodology
 Recent overview of crude oil
 Reason for Decline in Oil Price
 Oil Importing Countries
 Oil Prices & Economy of Pakistan
 Oil Prices & Major Consumers
 Policy Implication
 Conclusion

4. Introduction
Crude Oil, often called “black gold” is naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product
composed of hydrocarbon deposits.
Trade of crude oil across the globe is one major factors in determining the G.D.P and
financial policies of various countries across the globe
Crude oil exporting countries prefer to sell it for higher prices because it helps them to
increase their foreign reserves to control inflation
Oil is a crucial economic input and Pakistan’s growth, production levels, and price
levels are affected significantly by oil price volatility.

5. Objective of Study
 Analyze the relationship between oil price and real GDP growth of Pakistan
 Analyze the relationship between oil prices and its impact on different
industries
 Analyze the relationship between oil prices and its impact on Pakistan stock
market

6. Data Collection/Methodology
 Data collected from different researches, Ministry of Finance, Fifty Year
Economy of Pakistan, World Development Indicators (WDI), different
volumes of Pakistan Economic Survey & State bank of Pakistan (SBP)
 Data for oil price was retrieved from International Financial Statistics issued
by International Monetary Fund
 We put this data in excel sheet & draw tables & graphs

7. Recent overview of crude oil
 Oil prices fell sharply in the second half of 2014.
 Four-year period of stability around $105 per barrel.
 From June 2014, the global oil prices started a trend of downward shift.
 From $115 per barrel it touched a low of $45 per barrel in Jan 2015.
 This decline being the largest since the 2008 decline when prices fell from a whooping
$145.85 per barrel to $32 per barrel.

8. 50.59
61
69.04
94.1
60.86
77.38
107.46
109.45
105.87
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
AveragePriceinUSD/Barrel
Year
World Oil Prices
Nominal Value

9. Reason for Decline in Oil Price
 Technological shift from vertical to horizontal drilling in US led to it becoming a
producer from a consumer.
 Major boom in shale gas production causes the production increase by 0.9 million
barrel per day.
 Between July and Dec 2014 alone, the projected oil demand for 2015 is downwards by
0.8 million barrel per day.
 The US is producing record amounts of oils plenty of supply out of OPEC and Russia.
But there’s not enough demand.

10. Oil Importing Countries
 There are three main channels through which a decrease in the price of oil affects
oil importers.
 The first is the effect of the increase in real income on consumption.
 The second is the decrease in the cost of production of final goods, and in turn on
profit and investment.
 The third is the effect on the rate of inflation.

11. Oil Prices & Economy of Pakistan
 Pakistan is semi-industrial economy which is mainly in chemical, textile,
agriculture, food processing etc.
 Pakistan has imported oil from Middle East.
 Pakistan import crude oil and refines the oil locally for the consumption
 Our economy totally depends on oil import to run its economic mechanism
 Falling price of oil in international market should be seen as a blessing for a
country like Pakistan

12. Oil Prices & Economy of Pakistan
 Declining prices encourages OGRA to issue new licenses to 13 new oil
marketing companies
 It brings new investment in the Pakistan
 Pakistan produced 80,800 barrels/day in 2013, it increases to 110,000
barrels/day in 2015
 Increase in production help to cut the import for Pakistan
 Reduced import bill helped to maintain the foreign reserve to reduce trade
deficits of Pakistan

13. 65.63 65.67 65.19
58.58 55.37
65 65
72
80.8
336.19
357.08
382.26
389.75 390.94 392.3
418
440.11 437.06
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
ThousandsofBarels/Day
Years
Crude Oil Consumption & Production in Pakistan
Production Consumption
NET IMPORT

14. Oil Prices & Economy of Pakistan
 State Bank of Pakistan is enjoying fall in oil prices by saving foreign reserves
 It is also reducing pressure on the declining value of the Pakistan’s Rupee
 In February, IMF noticed GDP growth of 4.7% for Pakistan
 It happens due to saving of $4billion saving in oil import bill
 It help to control Inflation Rate & Foreign Reserves

15. 7.7
6.2
4.8
1.7
2.8
1.6
2.8
4
4.4
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Pakistan'sGDPGrowth%
Year
GDP Growth Rate of Pakistan
GDP Growth Rate of Pakistan

16. Oil Prices & Economy of Pakistan
 Pakistan is agricultural country and its agriculture contributes 24% of GDP
 Falling oil prices also helped the farmers to pay less (40%) for the fuel and
electricity bills
 NEPRA reduces the Rs3.24 per unit of electricity, It is a big relief for people
 Decline in oil prices also influence the stock market of Pakistan especially for
the PSO
 One major impact of decreasing oil will be reflected in CPI inflation

17. Oil Prices & Major Consumers
INDUSTRY IMPACT
Power Positive
Paints Positive
Chemical Positive
Autos Positive
Cement Positive
General industries Positive
E&P and OMC Negative
12%
36%
4%
48%
Major Oil Consumers
Indusrial Sector Energy Sector Residential Transport Sector

18. Policy Implication
 Enhance the positive effects of oil prices in reducing inflation by speeding up price
pass through.
 Put in place instruments to smooth the effects of price changes.
 Reduce oil price subsidies or increase taxes – which is good in economic and
environmental terms
 Reduce fiscal deficits
 Introduce less monetary tightening than would have been the case without the oil price
decline
 Reduce energy intensity or diversify trade and production to reduce the economy’s
dependence on volatile oil prices

19. Conclusion
 Impact of Oil Prices influences the economy at two level, macro level and micro level.
 At macro level it helped to reduce inflation, trade deficits (reduces import bill),
production cost of electricity, transportations fares and increase revenues generation
by increasing sales tax.
 At micro level it increase the purchasing power of the households, reduced prices of
household commodities and cheaper electricity per unit rates for household
consumption.
 Current fluctuation in price of crude oil has positive impact on the economy of
Pakistan.