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Muhammad Subhan Saleem Rana
School Of International Relations
Minhaj University Lahore
Crisis Management in
International Relations
Crisis
Wide variety of Meanings
Originally comes from Medicine
Social Sciences; Chaotic
Situation
Word Crisis means Disorder
Urgent Situation that Suddenly
happens
3 Conditions a system can meet
Stable Case
Start of Bifurcation
Increasing Bifurcation
Crisis in
International Relations
 Chaos Type for the Current International System
 Break-up of the Eastern Block 1989
 Collapse of USSR 1991
 Break-up of Yugoslavia 1992
 Iraq Crisis 1991
 9/11 Crisis
 Covid Crisis
 Russia-Ukraine Crisis
 Approaches to Crisis in
International Relations
1. SubstantiveApproach
2. ProceduralApproach
SubstantiveApproach concerned with the
contents of Each Crisis
ProceduralApproach concerned with General
Theories
 Adherents of the Decision-Making Approach
 Interested in the Subjects within the Framework of Political Processes
 Governments may have Perceptions of Intentions
 Acquired Information about Reciprocal Motives
 Effects of Public Opinion to the International Politics
 The Psychological Management of Crises
 Adherents of the International Systems Approach
 Dealt with Subjects such as Unexpected Changes in a Crisis
 Force, Intensity, and Importance of Periodic Activities
 Outputs of the foreign policies, and the dispersion of these actions.
Decision Making Approach
 Theoretical Perspectives while defining crises in IR
 First, the users of the decision-making approach, who take the government as the level of primary analysis, are
interested in the conditions and the procedures within the actor.
 Second, the users of the international systems approach are interested in reciprocal changes among the actors.
Procedural Approach
One Sided Crisis
Two Sided Crisis
Decision-Making
Approach
Conclusion of Definition of Crises
Situation in which normal/ordinary patterns of
Interaction between Nations change Significantly
Especially Interactions among the Major Powers
ICs are Powerful Changes forming Rigid
Orientations for Parts of Global System
According to McClelland
1. Change of Situation
2. Take place between Rivals’Actions
3. Affects entire IPS
4. Significant changes in 1989 cause
fall of USSR triggered Iraq Crisis 1991,
Yugoslavia Crisis 1992 & later 9/11
Crisis
5. Symmetrical & Asymmetrical Crisis
According to Oran Young
1. Range of Events
2. Make Instabilities in the General
System Structure
3. Concept can also lead to Incorrect
Results
4. Cuban Missiles Crisis 1962
5. Caused a Period of Moderation and
Détente in the International System.
Basic Shared-
Components
of Crises
Wave I
1
1904-1914
Wave II
2
1935-1939
Wave III
3
1948-1964
Wave IV
4
1989-1990
Waves of Crises
 Germanic Block v/s Slavo-Latino Block
 Intensifying Shared Interest Structures by Several Secret Pacts
 Colonial Struggle Intensified due to Armament Competition b/w Alliances
 Germany-France Disagreements 1904, 1905, 1908, 1911 due to Morocco Problem
 Austria-Russia Crisis 1908, 1912, 1913 due to Balkans
Wave-I
 No Compromise among Alliances
 Appeasement Strategy
 Allies put New Strategy into Practice 1938
 WW2 started 1939
Wave-II
 No General War
 No use of Appeasement Strategy
 Berlin Crisis-1948 | Korean Crisis 1950 | Suez Crisis 1956 | Lebanon & Quemoy Crisis 1958 |
Congo Crisis 1960 | Berlin War Crisis 1961 | Cuban Missiles Crisis 1962 | OPEC Embargo &
Arab Israel Crisis 1973 | Sino-Soviet Crisis 1969 | Tibet Crisis | Kashmir Crisis 1971 | France-
Algeria Crisis | Cyprus Crisis 1974 | Portugal Crisis 1974-1975 | Lebanon Civil War 1975-1976 |
Angola Crisis 1975-1976 | Iranian Revolution & Hostage Crisis 1979-1980 | Poland Crisis 1981
Wave-III
 Wave appeared in East Germany first, then followed by Eastern & Central Europe 1989-1990
 USSR collapse in 1991 cause other crisis
 Iraq Crisis 1991-1992 | Yugoslavia Crisis 1992-1996 | Kosovo Crisis 1999 | 9/11 Crisis
 Wave labelled as Corresponding Operations of USA
Wave-IV
Pre-Crisis Phase
1
Phase I
Crisis Phase
2
Phase II
Crisis Abatement
3
Phase III
Post-Crisis Phase
4
Phase IV
Crisis Management
 Pre-Crisis Phase / Warning Phase
 Detection of Initial Warning Signs of Crisis
 Govt. Interests have not yet Influenced
 Panic Level of Govt. Increases
 Crisis Situation Getting Clear
Phase-I
 Crisis Phase
 Crisis Definitely Begun
 Govt. Administration Tries to become Control Centre
 Events Occur Faster & Change
 Leadership could be Tested Easily in Crisis
Phase-II
 Crisis Abatement
 Govt. found No Solution, Credibility Damaged
 Govt. could Lose Political Prestige
 May have problems with other Governments
Phase-III
 Post-Crisis Phase
 Returning to Normal Conditions Immediately
 Possible Preparations for upcoming Crisis
 Policies for Possible Advantages in Crisis Era
Phase-IV
 Govts. are Open Systems
 Govts. might come Face-to-Face
 Big Problems for Govts.
 Time, How Often, How Big
 Might Threat Main Purpose,
Self-Interest & Even Existence
 Insufficiency of Leaders
Govts. & Crisis
 Driven more by Disposition
 Responsive more to the Situation
 Crusaders v/s Pragmatists
 Ideologue v/s Opportunist
 Directive v/s Consultative
 Task-Oriented v/s Relations Oriented
 Transformational v/s Transactional
Leadership & Crisis
Management in FP
 Friend-Enemy Axis
 Enver Pasha
 Adolf Hitler
 Mustafa Kamal Ataturk
 Ozal & Demirel
 George W. Bush
 Imran Khan
Leadership & Crisis
Management in FP
 Direct Relationship
 Not Compulsory for a Crisis to Become a Conflict
 Protracted Conflicts
 Kashmir Crises | Cyprus Crises | Middle East Crises
 Levels of Crises Management in IOs
 Low
 Intermediate
 High
Relation b/w Conflicts & Crises
Third-Party Interventions
 Approach came out in the 1960s
 Cleared in the 1970s
 Hastened in the 1970s
 Official Platform | Unofficial Platform
 Mediation | Facilitation
Thank You
Any Doubts?

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Crsis Management in International Relations presentation by Muhammad Subhan Saleem Rana.pptx

  • 1. Muhammad Subhan Saleem Rana School Of International Relations Minhaj University Lahore
  • 3. Crisis Wide variety of Meanings Originally comes from Medicine Social Sciences; Chaotic Situation Word Crisis means Disorder Urgent Situation that Suddenly happens 3 Conditions a system can meet Stable Case Start of Bifurcation Increasing Bifurcation
  • 4. Crisis in International Relations  Chaos Type for the Current International System  Break-up of the Eastern Block 1989  Collapse of USSR 1991  Break-up of Yugoslavia 1992  Iraq Crisis 1991  9/11 Crisis  Covid Crisis  Russia-Ukraine Crisis
  • 5.  Approaches to Crisis in International Relations 1. SubstantiveApproach 2. ProceduralApproach SubstantiveApproach concerned with the contents of Each Crisis ProceduralApproach concerned with General Theories
  • 6.  Adherents of the Decision-Making Approach  Interested in the Subjects within the Framework of Political Processes  Governments may have Perceptions of Intentions  Acquired Information about Reciprocal Motives  Effects of Public Opinion to the International Politics  The Psychological Management of Crises  Adherents of the International Systems Approach  Dealt with Subjects such as Unexpected Changes in a Crisis  Force, Intensity, and Importance of Periodic Activities  Outputs of the foreign policies, and the dispersion of these actions. Decision Making Approach
  • 7.  Theoretical Perspectives while defining crises in IR  First, the users of the decision-making approach, who take the government as the level of primary analysis, are interested in the conditions and the procedures within the actor.  Second, the users of the international systems approach are interested in reciprocal changes among the actors. Procedural Approach
  • 8. One Sided Crisis Two Sided Crisis Decision-Making Approach
  • 9. Conclusion of Definition of Crises Situation in which normal/ordinary patterns of Interaction between Nations change Significantly Especially Interactions among the Major Powers ICs are Powerful Changes forming Rigid Orientations for Parts of Global System
  • 10. According to McClelland 1. Change of Situation 2. Take place between Rivals’Actions 3. Affects entire IPS 4. Significant changes in 1989 cause fall of USSR triggered Iraq Crisis 1991, Yugoslavia Crisis 1992 & later 9/11 Crisis 5. Symmetrical & Asymmetrical Crisis
  • 11. According to Oran Young 1. Range of Events 2. Make Instabilities in the General System Structure 3. Concept can also lead to Incorrect Results 4. Cuban Missiles Crisis 1962 5. Caused a Period of Moderation and Détente in the International System.
  • 13. Wave I 1 1904-1914 Wave II 2 1935-1939 Wave III 3 1948-1964 Wave IV 4 1989-1990 Waves of Crises
  • 14.  Germanic Block v/s Slavo-Latino Block  Intensifying Shared Interest Structures by Several Secret Pacts  Colonial Struggle Intensified due to Armament Competition b/w Alliances  Germany-France Disagreements 1904, 1905, 1908, 1911 due to Morocco Problem  Austria-Russia Crisis 1908, 1912, 1913 due to Balkans Wave-I
  • 15.  No Compromise among Alliances  Appeasement Strategy  Allies put New Strategy into Practice 1938  WW2 started 1939 Wave-II
  • 16.  No General War  No use of Appeasement Strategy  Berlin Crisis-1948 | Korean Crisis 1950 | Suez Crisis 1956 | Lebanon & Quemoy Crisis 1958 | Congo Crisis 1960 | Berlin War Crisis 1961 | Cuban Missiles Crisis 1962 | OPEC Embargo & Arab Israel Crisis 1973 | Sino-Soviet Crisis 1969 | Tibet Crisis | Kashmir Crisis 1971 | France- Algeria Crisis | Cyprus Crisis 1974 | Portugal Crisis 1974-1975 | Lebanon Civil War 1975-1976 | Angola Crisis 1975-1976 | Iranian Revolution & Hostage Crisis 1979-1980 | Poland Crisis 1981 Wave-III
  • 17.  Wave appeared in East Germany first, then followed by Eastern & Central Europe 1989-1990  USSR collapse in 1991 cause other crisis  Iraq Crisis 1991-1992 | Yugoslavia Crisis 1992-1996 | Kosovo Crisis 1999 | 9/11 Crisis  Wave labelled as Corresponding Operations of USA Wave-IV
  • 18. Pre-Crisis Phase 1 Phase I Crisis Phase 2 Phase II Crisis Abatement 3 Phase III Post-Crisis Phase 4 Phase IV Crisis Management
  • 19.  Pre-Crisis Phase / Warning Phase  Detection of Initial Warning Signs of Crisis  Govt. Interests have not yet Influenced  Panic Level of Govt. Increases  Crisis Situation Getting Clear Phase-I
  • 20.  Crisis Phase  Crisis Definitely Begun  Govt. Administration Tries to become Control Centre  Events Occur Faster & Change  Leadership could be Tested Easily in Crisis Phase-II
  • 21.  Crisis Abatement  Govt. found No Solution, Credibility Damaged  Govt. could Lose Political Prestige  May have problems with other Governments Phase-III
  • 22.  Post-Crisis Phase  Returning to Normal Conditions Immediately  Possible Preparations for upcoming Crisis  Policies for Possible Advantages in Crisis Era Phase-IV
  • 23.  Govts. are Open Systems  Govts. might come Face-to-Face  Big Problems for Govts.  Time, How Often, How Big  Might Threat Main Purpose, Self-Interest & Even Existence  Insufficiency of Leaders Govts. & Crisis
  • 24.  Driven more by Disposition  Responsive more to the Situation  Crusaders v/s Pragmatists  Ideologue v/s Opportunist  Directive v/s Consultative  Task-Oriented v/s Relations Oriented  Transformational v/s Transactional Leadership & Crisis Management in FP
  • 25.  Friend-Enemy Axis  Enver Pasha  Adolf Hitler  Mustafa Kamal Ataturk  Ozal & Demirel  George W. Bush  Imran Khan Leadership & Crisis Management in FP
  • 26.  Direct Relationship  Not Compulsory for a Crisis to Become a Conflict  Protracted Conflicts  Kashmir Crises | Cyprus Crises | Middle East Crises  Levels of Crises Management in IOs  Low  Intermediate  High Relation b/w Conflicts & Crises
  • 27. Third-Party Interventions  Approach came out in the 1960s  Cleared in the 1970s  Hastened in the 1970s  Official Platform | Unofficial Platform  Mediation | Facilitation
  • 28.