1. Understanding and Identifying Hot Products:The Top 50 Background, Plans and Vision Adrian Beck, University of Leicester

2. Defining Hot Products Defining Shrinkage Malicious and Non-malicious Known and Unknown Parameters of Loss Prevention Function

3. Understanding Shrinkage intended sales income that was not and cannot be realised

4. Defining Hot Products Measuring Shrinkage Total value? Percentage of retail turnover? Margin?

5. Why Margin Matters

6. The ‘Hot’ Concept Risk is not evenly distributed. Crime hot spots 3% of locations in some cities account for 50% of recorded crime Products Places People Processes Places People Products Processes

7. Value of Understanding the ‘Hot’ Concept Avoids spreading valuable resources too thinly Focus on the vital few amongst the trivial many Rapid impact Greatest return Possible diffusion of benefits

8. Hot Products Example

9. Understanding Hot Products: The Rise of the Acronym CRAVED AT CUT PRICES SERV

10. CRAVED Concealable – easy to hide Removable – easy to get out of store Available – on open display Valuable – easy to sell on Enjoyable – high demand and reputation Disposable – good market for them

11. AT CUT PRICES Affordable – easily purchased with cash Transportable – easy to move around Concealable – easy to hide Untraceable – few auditable markings Tradeable – easily exchanged for cash or other commodities Profitable – have value Reputable – good brand placement Imperishable – long lasting Consumable – need to be replaced regularly Evaluable – quality can be verified Shiftable – regular market for items

12. CRAVED AT CUT PRICES

13. Influencing Offender Decision Making Increasing Risk What are the chances of being caught? Reducing Reward What are the benefits? Increase Consequences What will happen to me if I am caught?

14. Understanding the Dominance of the Malicious Agenda Dominance of Security as Loss Prevention Lack of Engagement with Known Losses Prioritisation by Technology Providers Planned Shrinkage Lack of Data

15. SERV – Non-malicious Shrinkage Sensitive to time – time limited Expectations of consumers – any damage unacceptable Reprocessing – opportunity for error Vulnerability of packaging – likely to generate damage

16. Hot Products Lists Hugely Difficult Variance in Recording Variance in Categorisation Variance in Detail Variance in Definition Dominance of Lowest Common Denominator

17. Methodology Request to ECR Members for Information Limited Response – not willingness but ability Top 50 Items Across Agreed Categories Food Beer, Wines and Spirits Health and Beauty Limited to 3 UK Retailers: Supermarkets Combined 40.7% of Total Turnover Sales of €109.9 billion

18. Methodology Normalisation of Categories Indexing of Data to Enable Parity in Ranking Variance from Company Category Average Percentage of Sum Total of Combined Variance: Risk Value All Data For 12 months – Previous Year Only Unknown Data Total of €72 million of losses – only top 50 items per retailer

19. Hot Product Categories

20. Food Categories

21. Food: Fresh Meat

22. BWS: Category Type

23. BWS: Hot Categories

24. BWS: Top 10 Brands

25. BWS: Specific Brands All

26. BWS: Specific Spirit Brands

27. BWS: Specific Beer Brands

28. BWS: Specific Wine Brands

29. BWS: Manufacturers

30. Health & Beauty: Top 10 Type Remedies Sun cream Testers Baby Food Wipes Nappies Blades Sprays Toothpaste Brushes Mascaras Creams Shampoo

31. Health & Beauty: Top 10 Brand

32. Health and Beauty: Specific Brands

33. Health & Beauty: Top 10 Manufacturer

34. Health & Beauty: By Category

35. Health & Beauty: By Category

36. Health & Beauty: By Category

37. Health & Beauty: By Category

38. Conclusions Note of Caution Difficulty of standardising and normalising data More clarity required on categorisation Need for a broader range of companies Watch out for Smirnoff vodka drinking beef eaters who like shaving and have a headache!